Originally Posted by herbal tee

Conversely, I know too many X'ers who still won't commit to anything outside a small circle of friends and family. There's probabally nothing that can be done to speed up the maturing of generations.

Hmm, so that's my generational role? (I'm a '67 cohort.)

Dunno if that's really how it works. The Generational "die-off" that causes Turnings is also visible within generations; for example, the youngest cohort currently in Congress is the '61 cohort (Thune, Obama); though small, they have a disproportionate visibility, and that sort of warps the perceived generational stance.

Similarly, the Millie cohorts that are currently most visible are the 18-24 year olds (the '82-'88 cohorts), because of the election-year emphasis on voting participation (especially the stark contrast to the Xers); but that will change as we move deeper into the 4T, and the emphasis moves away from the formal political process and toward the community-building process.

Originally Posted by Finch

Hmm, so that's my generational role? (I'm a '67 cohort.)

Dunno if that's really how it works. The Generational "die-off" that causes Turnings is also visible within generations; for example, the youngest cohort currently in Congress is the '61 cohort (Thune, Obama); though small, they have a disproportionate visibility, and that sort of warps the perceived generational stance.

Similarly, the Millie cohorts that are currently most visible are the 18-24 year olds (the '82-'88 cohorts), because of the election-year emphasis on voting participation (especially the stark contrast to the Xers); but that will change as we move deeper into the 4T, and the emphasis moves away from the formal political process and toward the community-building process.

What I'm getting at is that when the social moment is indisputably here, the nomadic impulse towards privacy and away from public-usually prophet led causes-becomes untenable. Yes, Bush is percieved by most of the country to be a problem now. Even by people who consider themselves traditional conservatives and are wary of left of center boomers and their plans. It probabally is a good thing that some of the early X'ers are starting to get some national attention because as S and H point out, the nomads are the only generation that is able to restrain the prophets during the heat of the 4t. The silents are running out of time as all artist generations do in a 4t. So far the boomers who have gotten the most power have been some of the most repulsive for various reasons. There will be no one else available for public life to restrain the boomers. The millies are bright and public spirited like all civic generations, but they will be too young and obediant to resist boomer schemes without substansial Xer help.. If the X'ers are too much like the guilded and insist on a private regarding life too deeply into the 4t, well let's just say that the civil war 4t isn't completely the transies fault.

Has it ever occured to you that the Heroes (as a whole) might be the most radical and most dangerous?

see Palestinians

Michael makes a good point. We Heroes can be quite dangerous. Wake me up at 3 a.m. and find out for yourself.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Has it ever occured to you that the Heroes (as a whole) might be the most radical and most dangerous?

see Palestinians

I've made this argument before. You might be interested in this thread. IMO, the fact that the Republicans sided with the Patriots rather than the Tories, and that the GIs turned against laissez-faire capitalism (and become the most socialist generation ever) proves my point.

Mr. Reed,

Thanks. That was very interesing.

I seem to have unintentionally offended a group of civics. Not Good! ;
My apoligees. I was presuming a mild 4t where prophetic excess was not out of hand yet, but on the way. Of course you guys make resistence movements great when you find it neccessary. Of course if things get to that point, the many X 'ers will be with you. No offense intended.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

What I'm getting at is that when the social moment is indisputably here, the nomadic impulse towards privacy and away from public-usually prophet led causes-becomes untenable.

This last Saturday, for the first time in my life, I went door-to-door canvassing for my local Democratic Congressional candidate. At one of the first houses I visited, there was a man about my age outside watching his young son play. I asked him if he had decided who he would vote for in November, and he stated that he had moved to the area recently, adding the typical Xer response "I really don't like either party."

I briefly gave him the spiel about my candidate, and he listened politely; then looked at me searchingly and asked "Why are you here? You have a full-time job, kids to care for, and it's a nice day -- why are you spending your time doing this?"

In response, I made a few comments about how I was impressed by my candidate, and how her positions and concerns reflected mine [she's an Xer, and the incumbent is a Boomer -- all talk and no action]; but then I added, it goes deeper than that. I've always been "a pox on both their houses" guy [I voted for Perot and Nader before Kerry], and probably still am. However, I said, I finally realized that this country is stuck on dead center, and it can't continue; I feel I need to get personally involved to get things moving again.

He thanked me and I left a flyer. I doubt I changed his mind, but I really enjoyed the conversation. With that setting the tone, I had a pleasant if not exactly productive afternoon.

At the next-to-last house I visited, I was looking for a young male (the walking list gives the age and gender of the registered voter to contact.) His father answered the door, and indicated that his son was currently serving his third tour in Iraq. I said, "that's good; he can still vote there." He said, "yes, but he won't be voting Democratic." I noted that my candidate was the daughter and the spouse of a veteran, so that she is very responsive to veterans' issues; to which the father responded with a tight-lipped smile, "yes, but she belongs to a party that doesn't believe in security." (That's an exact quote.) His son was listed as a 21-year old, so that would make him an early-wave Millie and his father a Boomer.

So here we are. I personally am beginning to come out of my nomad cocoon and face the responsibilities I have to this world. Others near my age -- perhaps not quite ready to accept their own generational roles -- at least recognize the tension of the approaching social moment.

For me, it took a divorce (after 14 years), and an accompanying crisis of faith (I no longer consider myself a practicing Mormon), to get me off the dime. What will it take for the others I have just described?

Originally Posted by Finch

This last Saturday, for the first time in my life, I went door-to-door canvassing for my local Democratic Congressional candidate. At one of the first houses I visited, there was a man about my age outside watching his young son play. I asked him if he had decided who he would vote for in November, and he stated that he had moved to the area recently, adding the typical Xer response "I really don't like either party."

I briefly gave him the spiel about my candidate, and he listened politely; then looked at me searchingly and asked "Why are you here? You have a full-time job, kids to care for, and it's a nice day -- why are you spending your time doing this?"

In response, I made a few comments about how I was impressed by my candidate, and how her positions and concerns reflected mine [she's an Xer, and the incumbent is a Boomer -- all talk and no action]; but then I added, it goes deeper than that. I've always been "a pox on both their houses" guy [I voted for Perot and Nader before Kerry], and probably still am. However, I said, I finally realized that this country is stuck on dead center, and it can't continue; I feel I need to get personally involved to get things moving again.

He thanked me and I left a flyer. I doubt I changed his mind, but I really enjoyed the conversation. With that setting the tone, I had a pleasant if not exactly productive afternoon.

At the next-to-last house I visited, I was looking for a young male (the walking list gives the age and gender of the registered voter to contact.) His father answered the door, and indicated that his son was currently serving his third tour in Iraq. I said, "that's good; he can still vote there." He said, "yes, but he won't be voting Democratic." I noted that my candidate was the daughter and the spouse of a veteran, so that she is very responsive to veterans' issues; to which the father responded with a tight-lipped smile, "yes, but she belongs to a party that doesn't believe in security." (That's an exact quote.) His son was listed as a 21-year old, so that would make him an early-wave Millie and his father a Boomer.

So here we are. I personally am beginning to come out of my nomad cocoon and face the responsibilities I have to this world. Others near my age -- perhaps not quite ready to accept their own generational roles -- at least recognize the tension of the approaching social moment.

For me, it took a divorce (after 14 years), and an accompanying crisis of faith (I no longer consider myself a practicing Mormon), to get me off the dime. What will it take for the others I have just described?

Commendations on the political work. Having done some of that myself before, I know how rewarding it can be. I guess part of what will change as we become indisputably 4t is the number of stories like yours and perhaps mine. I too have been willing to vote for third party candidates before. Living in the heavily Republican south however , it didn't really matter. I voted for Nader in 2000 and I voted for Andre Marrou in 1992.

We may yet have a third party rise up and replace one of the two existing establishment parties. At times, it seems like the two big parties are in a race to see who can self destruct first. Of course the last time that happened was during the civil war crises, I hope that we aren't so divided that we have double regeneracies (red and blue?) as they had then. The geography of the red/blue map causes me some concern. There are a few US house races in the upper south (namely NC-8 and NC-11) that I am keeping my eye on. They both have boomer Republican incumbants who are the epitome of the problems with the current house. If they get reelected in a year like this, my concern about a future red/blue division will grow.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Commendations on the political work. Having done some of that myself before, I know how rewarding it can be. I guess part of what will change as we become indisputably 4t is the number of stories like yours and perhaps mine.

Thanks. I didn't post to toot my own horn, more to highlight the responses I met with. By the way, as a '61 cohort, do you consider yourself an Xer or Boomer? How about other members of your cohort that you know? Just curious. All of the '61 and '62 cohort I've ever met consider themselves Boomers in temperament.

Originally Posted by Finch

By the way, as a '61 cohort, do you consider yourself an Xer or Boomer? How about other members of your cohort that you know? Just curious. All of the '61 and '62 cohort I've ever met consider themselves Boomers in temperament.

I've given this some thought recently, here is the answer as I can best explain it. Growing up, I learned about the demographic 'baby boom' which as you may already know, goes from 1946-64. My childhood was indeed quite boomerish. I was encouraged by my parents to dream big and I was always attracted to the kids a few years older than myself. By the time I was in high school, I had become a "second wave hippie." I was one of the guys with hair down to my waist and a stash in my car.......of classic rock cassettes. ;

However, by the time I was in high school, I started to notice that a large minority of the students that I went to school with did not share my outlook on the world. They were quite unlike what we would call boomers. I became aware that some of my classmates were completely unlike me and my closest friends.

In college, my life became more nomadic. I had already decided that I wanted to graduate from college and become self sufficent ASAP and the election of Reagan as president in 1980 confirmed my suspicion that the good world of new deal optimism that I had grown up on the remainents of was going away. I went to summer school and managed to graduate on time in 1983 without any student debt. Friends of mine who weren't as aware of the loss of student aid as grants were turned into loans for the benefit of large finiancial institutions ended up graduating with tousands of dollars of student debt. One other thing I will say about my classmates in college. The cuts in student aid that Reagan brought in during the early 1980's occurred with almost no student opposition. This flabbergasted me at the time that so many people my age actually thought that Reagan's policies would make them rich Republicans. They supported policies that were clearly harmful to their long term best interest and were completely unable to see what to me was very clear.

Boy, was that a harbinger of the way things are now!

When I first read Generations in the summer of 1993, I was surprised to find that they placed my birthyear at the beginning of what they called the 13th generation. Because I knew about the 1946-64 demographic factor, I had always considered myself a boomer until this point. Looking at it now, I see that my college age 'coming of age" experence was nomadic rather than prophetic. I am indeed onwe of those souls born into one generation that was forced by the march of history into a generation that I wanted to resist being in at first. I still have a lot of boomer traits from childhood and I try to look at my role as a cusper as a unique chance to be a mediator in the 4t. There are a lot of ideals, especially involving economic justice, that I would love to see become reality, but I know that to get anything meaningful done, one must be pragmatic.

As to others my age, I think that coming of age when the 2t abruptly ended, for I consider the election of Reagan in 1980 as the beginning of the 3t, it certanly was for me, probabally flipped quite a few of us would be boomers into X'er territory. We're certanly a mixed cohort. Being able to understand both generations may be my cohorts most important contribution in life. I still know a few reactive people my age who act like everything's "B.S.", but I don't know if they really believe that anymore.

Sorry it took so long to answer. I've just come to realize quite recently that the coming of age experence matters a lot for my cohort and for many of us was likely decisive in fixing which archtype that we are in.

Originally Posted by 1990

Nice to see someone almost as young as me here. I don't feel like an anomaly.

I totally agree that if we have entered 4T, 9/11 caused it. I'm still on the fence about it, but your argument as well as some others' makes me think we may have made the shift recently. I assumed that 4Ts are marked by unity early on, but it makes sense that the first few years are divisive, bitter, awkward, and polarizing. In the last Crisis there was no real unity behind FDR's policies at least until the late '30s and perhaps until as late as Pearl Harbor.

Depending on who you believe, 2006 is either the equivalent of 1928 (i.e. nearing the end of an Unraveling), or more around 1933-34 (i.e. in the early, dark stages of the Crisis). With all the great arguments I'm hearing, I'm leaning more and more toward the latter.

And it does matter. Michael, we're Millies. This is our future. This is our youth. The sooner Crisis comes is the sooner we will have to be out there being "heroic youths". The later it is delayed, the older we are when we have to fill that role. And to look at it one way, the sooner the 4T comes, the sooner it ends, and thus the sooner we have a renewed, optimistic, proud 1T society again. Sure, that will bring along with it a conformist, status quo-friendly, change-averse attitude to society, but I'll take 1960 over 1935 any day of the week.

So here's kind of a stupid question: what will the 4T be recognized as? Is it just the "War on Terror" or is it more? The last Crisis started with a financial bust and ended with the most destructive war in history. We seem to be getting the war first this time. So what will shape this 4T, whether we're in it now or not? And will this 4T end on a triumphant note, like the last one, or will it end America's reign as global superpower?

Welcome aboard 1990... keep in mind that there have been late teens on this board for as long as the forum has existed!

(Believe it or not... there was a time when the youngest regular posters were born around 1980).

As per my answer to your question: I subscribe to the theory that the saeculum is approximately 80 years long (there is a certain passage, for example, from one of the S&H books about the late 2T year 1907 that could just as well be adapted to fit the year 1987) so that would make the 'natural' time for the start of the 4T around 2009.

Where I am right now (southern California), the 3T mood of LA-LA land still rages on (although this may be an unfair comparison; Tinseltown is by its very *nature* a very 3T place) although people I know from other parts of the country inform me that a 4T mood may be brewing there.

As I see things, I haven't felt much of a 4T mood at all (sure, there is crazy stuff about airline security, but people in general spend so little time at the airport that the rest of their lives being unaffected would not suggest a turning change); even with Katrina and $3 gas people's lives are unaffected! (Then again, assuming 20 gallons a week, gas prices only represent about $3000 per year per person, which is a fairly large chunk of income but not exactly an 800-pound gorilla like housing... interesting how the housing bubble started in the mid-90s and therefore has to be more of a 3T phenomenom!)

That being said, though, I now feel that a major event soon could cause us to truly be in 4T (or for all I know we might be there already!)

Just one thing in response to your "we're Millies... this is our future" bit.

You're likely going to end up in a core Millie cohort no matter what happens. However, people like me (and GuruOfReason, Leados, Biddy5637, etc for that matter) are a bit more than half a decade older than you and therefore fall a bit closer to the generational cusp. Consequently, I'm hoping that the 4T starts as late as possible so that I can avoid the 'heroic' role of being a foot-soldier in the crisis; for those nearer the cusp, our roles may very well change!