As an alternative to replying to my first post, here is a poll instead. The poll is quite simple: have we reached the Fourth Turning / Crisis yet, or are we still in Third Turning / Unraveling?

The discussion about this debate in the thread I started the other day is quite interesting, but if you don't feel like reading through the comments, this poll might be for you. Imagine, maybe we can end this debate once and for all (through democratic means).

This is the closest I've ever come to calling the present a 4t. I voted 3t, but I won't argue with anyone who is convinced that we're 4t for I know that it can't be too much longer. Marx and Lennon noted on another thread that this november's midterm may tell us a lot. If the voter turnout is low and the GOP keeps total control of our government, then nothing has changed. A high turnout could argur for change. If turnout is high and the Democrats take both houses and many governor races, that would be very conclusive that we are 4t. High turnout with continued Republican control may mean that the GOP is going to be given one more chance to get it right. That could be a sign of being early in the 4t but the picture would be muddy.

I'm not saying that the Democrats "have" to win the 4t, the future isn't guarenteed for anyone. I'm just saying that more of the same means that we are still 3t. November will tell us a lot.

I either have to believe we're there now, or feel anguish about the 4T that will arive. If we haven't gone far enough to kick this into 4T mode by now, what will it take?

... and I agree with HerbalTee that this is not a guaranteed left-of-center 4T. The neocons may have been successful in selling the country on a never-ending free lunch, provided to us by the rest of the world. If so, then heaven help those left to pick up the pieces in the 1T.

The possible reason many here hesitate to identify this period as 4T is that this may be a *failed* 4T. No happy ending. Followed by an "austerity" 1T.

Originally Posted by 1990

The discussion about this debate in the thread I started the other day is quite interesting, but if you don't feel like reading through the comments, this poll might be for you. Imagine, maybe we can end this debate once and for all (through democratic means).

Nice thought... but your poll is just another in a sequence of many.

Every six months or so there's a poll on this forum about what turning we believe to be in, and there is almost never a consensus; in fact, often the majorities flip back and forth (in November 2001, for example, the majority view was that 9/11 ushered in a 4T; by May of 2002, though, many felt that the initial shock of the event had not ushered in a Crisis era so a majority of posters now thought that it was 3T)... there will likely not be a consensus on the current Turning until, at the very least, two or three years into the Regeneracy (but by then, people may be arguing that it is 1T!)

Shouldn't there be an option for "the failure of recent events (and the millie generation) to conform well to S&H's prediction casts doubt on the theory itself?" I'd like to think that the theory is at least somewhat falsifiable, and that people won't keep adding epicycles (a 'failed fourth turning', followed perhaps by a 'failed first turning' etc.) to keep it alive. I don't think we can make any really definitive judgments about predictions vs. reality until 2020 or so, but certainly there's room for increasing doubts/confidence as the years pass.

Originally Posted by Jesse '77

Shouldn't there be an option for "the failure of recent events (and the millie generation) to conform well to S&H's prediction casts doubt on the theory itself?" I'd like to think that the theory is at least somewhat falsifiable, and that people won't keep adding epicycles (a 'failed fourth turning', followed perhaps by a 'failed first turning' etc.) to keep it alive. I don't think we can make any really definitive judgments about predictions vs. reality until 2020 or so, but certainly there's room for increasing doubts/confidence as the years pass.

I like your epicycle analogy!

Originally Posted by Seminomad

Nice thought... but your poll is just another in a sequence of many.

Every six months or so there's a poll on this forum about what turning we believe to be in, and there is almost never a consensus; in fact, often the majorities flip back and forth (in November 2001, for example, the majority view was that 9/11 ushered in a 4T; by May of 2002, though, many felt that the initial shock of the event had not ushered in a Crisis era so a majority of posters now thought that it was 3T)... there will likely not be a consensus on the current Turning until, at the very least, two or three years into the Regeneracy (but by then, people may be arguing that it is 1T!)

Not to mention that as of this post, the poll is exactly tied at 10-10.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

This is the closest I've ever come to calling the present a 4t. I voted 3t, but I won't argue with anyone who is convinced that we're 4t for I know that it can't be too much longer. Marx and Lennon noted on another thread that this november's midterm may tell us a lot. If the voter turnout is low and the GOP keeps total control of our government, then nothing has changed. A high turnout could argur for change. If turnout is high and the Democrats take both houses and many governor races, that would be very conclusive that we are 4t. High turnout with continued Republican control may mean that the GOP is going to be given one more chance to get it right. That could be a sign of being early in the 4t but the picture would be muddy.

I'm not saying that the Democrats "have" to win the 4t, the future isn't guarenteed for anyone. I'm just saying that more of the same means that we are still 3t. November will tell us a lot.

Hmph. Virtually everybody is predicting that the outcome for both houses will be 51%-49% one way or the other. Hardly seems like a new social moment to me.

As for turnout, it's bound to be much higher than the last midterm, because so many more Millies are voting age. [Millie participation rates were already much higher than Xer participation in the 2004 election; 25-30 year-olds are the exception to the rule that voter participation always increases with age.]

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I either have to believe we're there now, or feel anguish about the 4T that will arive. If we haven't gone far enough to kick this into 4T mode by now, what will it take?

Hmm, let's see: how about a Japan-style housing crash, or a nuclear war with Iran? Or another attack on American soil? I could speculate all day. The only thing sure is that it will get much worse before it gets any better.

Originally Posted by Pink Splice

The possible reason many here hesitate to identify this period as 4T is that this may be a *failed* 4T. No happy ending. Followed by an "austerity" 1T.

Gee, and I thought *I* was gloomy.

It's waaaay too soon to know whether this 4T will be a "failure." (I have my suspicions and my speculations, but they're just that.)

Originally Posted by Jesse '77

Shouldn't there be an option for "the failure of recent events (and the millie generation) to conform well to S&H's prediction casts doubt on the theory itself?" I'd like to think that the theory is at least somewhat falsifiable, and that people won't keep adding epicycles (a 'failed fourth turning', followed perhaps by a 'failed first turning' etc.) to keep it alive. I don't think we can make any really definitive judgments about predictions vs. reality until 2020 or so, but certainly there's room for increasing doubts/confidence as the years pass.

What "failure"? I'm curious what you see. Every day I'm amazed by how civic-minded the Millies are, and how unlike my generation.

Speculating on a "failed 4T" and such doesn't seem like epicycles at all to me. In fact, it sounds precisely like a falsifiable hypothesis, the outcome of which can be predicted and measured. For example:

- a "failed 4T" hypothesis could be "By 2020, the US will be defeated militarily and occupied by a foreign power"

- a "declining empire 4T" hypothesis could be "By 2020, the US will no longer have the world's largest military budget"

Originally Posted by Finch

Hmph. Virtually everybody is predicting that the outcome for both houses will be 51%-49% one way or the other. Hardly seems like a new social moment to me.

As for turnout, it's bound to be much higher than the last midterm, because so many more Millies are voting age. [Millie participation rates were already much higher than Xer participation in the 2004 election; 25-30 year-olds are the exception to the rule that voter participation always increases with age.]

Wouldn't the fact young civics are raising the voter participation rate itself be a sign that the allignment for a 4t is occuring even if the social moment were not quite here yet?

Originally Posted by Finch

Hmph. Virtually everybody is predicting that the outcome for both houses will be 51%-49% one way or the other. Hardly seems like a new social moment to me.

As for turnout, it's bound to be much higher than the last midterm, because so many more Millies are voting age. [Millie participation rates were already much higher than Xer participation in the 2004 election; 25-30 year-olds are the exception to the rule that voter participation always increases with age.]

If the predicted 51%-49% turns out to be 58%-42%, then we'll have something to talk about. It's mathematically possible. Stranger things have happened.

Unfortuantely, I tend to agree with the closer margin.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Wouldn't the fact young civics are raising the voter participation rate itself be a sign that the allignment for a 4t is occuring even if the social moment were not quite here yet?

Indeed. The Millenials are taking thier time, though.

Originally Posted by Pink Splice

Indeed. The Millenials are taking thier time, though.

Maybe, but they still have time to take. The oldest millies are only 24 this year. The GI's lifelong loyalty to new deal style liberalism wasn't very predictable circa 1925. Still, I hope that the arrival of a huge civic generation as voters comes soon. Not only do I find the current political culture not to my liking, even worse, I see it as unsustainable.

My Dad is 82 year old Civic GI and I notice how real that is in comparison to me and my two brother who are cynical and hard bitten Gen Xers. The old man wants to help people and believes in the social order and society. He is conservative but in a 1970s way(unions are good, peace and prosperity through good influence of America).

I bet millies will get religion one way or another through the current blowoff of the housing bubble and descent into some sort of chaos through Peak oil and hedge fund destabilization(buccaneer style expansion of nebulous financial derivatives and housing loans by survivalist creative Gen Xers).

Through learning to pull together to make the whole system survive millies will become like my Dad is now. They will become civics in a real sense. The survivalist Gen Xer ethic will not be survivable in a post peak oil and post housing bubble / hedge funds chaos. Working togeether will be the only way to survive. Rationing of food and fuel, heavy government regulation of business environment and drafting of people to farm work to replace tractors to harvest and plant crops, banning of automobiles. There is already big talk after Amaranth's 6 billion dollar blow out, of international regulation of hedge funds. 80% of them are registered in Cayman islands. Rich people invest mostly in such investment vehicles. Private equity is king. The nation state and its regulatory bodies are being completely avoided by big capital. Mutual funds are old hat 80s middle class garbage. House flipping is for joe six pack like buying lottery tickets. The rich think they are smarter with hedge funds offshore. Really however we are all in the same boat. Joe six pack can't pay the mortgage because his job is deep sixed in Detroit so the hedge fund collapses and then the whole house of cards collapses and we have Great Depression II and then we learn to work together by force of necessity. Either socialism or fascism comes depending on whose side has the best tactics at the time. it doesn't really matter in the end, lots of people will get killed or lose their "rights" in property or whatever.

If the 90s to most Boomers meant settling down, raising families, and engaging in Culture War, and the 90s to most Millennials meant grade school and childhood, and the 90s to most Xers meant cultural ascendance and coming of age, why would it be expected that we would all view the 00s as one thing, such as 'crisis'?