As we all know, Strauss & Howe predicted that there would be a shift from Unraveling to Crisis around the year 2005. There's been a ton of debate here about when the Crisis started or will start. Having already brought that question up twice, without a decisive consensus, that is not what I'm asking in this thread.

Let's say 9/11 was too early for true 4T-ness. Let's say the Iraq invasion was too early. Now, recall the 2004 election. Iraq and terrorism were the major issues. But, when the campaigning was done and the results were in, there was still a narrow plurality (about 1/4) saying that their main issue in choosing between Bush and Kerry was "moral values". True, if you combined those who answered "Iraq" and those who answered "terrorism", those two issues were far more than the moral values crowd. But it indicated that there was still a fragment of Culture Wars going on. Indeed, 2004 was the year of the gay marriage debate and other Culture Wars controversies. A lot of people were still very fired-up over social issues and considered those before more "urgent" issues.

As Bush was inaugurated for a second term, he seemed to have gotten a post-election bounce in the polls during winter. Democrats were depressed, feeling that nothing had changed since 2000, and that the Newt Gingrich moralists from the late '90s still ruled.

But a curious thing happened in 2005. Suddenly around spring, severe pessimism set in, affecting the approval ratings of the President and Congress. What started it? Was it the deteriorating situation in Iraq? The Social Security debacle? No one was sure. Was it temporary or long-term? Bush and Congress tried to keep the mood upbeat about Iraq for most of the summer. This had little effect. That summer was full of negative news from Iraq and rumors about the Valerie Plame leak investigation. Then came Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath in September, and the President and Congress sunk (no pun intended!) deep into the bottom of the polls. By early November Bush's approval was in the low 30s.

While the White House has worked vigorously to bring Bush's approval up, it has had only mild effect. On his best days in 2006 his approval has been around 40%. It has never been more than 45% since spring 2005. Congress' has been much worse. Despite endless efforts by politicians to prove that the economy and the war on terror are going well, pessimism is immovable. And the Culture Wars era seems to be coming to a close. Congress tried a flag burning amendment and a gay marriage amendment again this year (hoping to revive '04 passions) and both failed with surprisingly little media coverage or public debate. People don't seem to be talking anymore about God, guns, and gays. It's all about the horrendous state of affairs in government and society.

So perhaps 2005 did start us in a new Crisis. Wedge issues that were highly successful for both parties in the 1990s and earlier this decade are no longer so. Instead, minimizing the damage of the Iraq War, fixing our universally-criticized health care system, and the supposed darkness of the future are on everyone's minds. 2004 was not like this.

Instead of making this yet another "are we in 4T yet?" thread, I intend this to be a thread for predictions and thoughts on the future. Let's temporarily go off of the premise that 2005 was the year. Now what? What will the next few years be like? Are we approaching WWIII, or will an economic collapse happen first? Where are we headed in these dark days? And how long will the 4T last? Could it be short and ugly, like the Civil War, or long and hopeful, like the Depression/WWII? What is going to happen in the rest of this decade to shape the societal mood?

Originally Posted by 1990

So perhaps 2005 did start us in a new Crisis. Wedge issues that were highly successful for both parties in the 1990s and earlier this decade are no longer so. Instead, minimizing the damage of the Iraq War, fixing our universally-criticized health care system, and the supposed darkness of the future are on everyone's minds. 2004 was not like this.

Instead of making this yet another "are we in 4T yet?" thread, I intend this to be a thread for predictions and thoughts on the future. Let's temporarily go off of the premise that 2005 was the year. Now what? What will the next few years be like? Are we approaching WWIII, or will an economic collapse happen first? Where are we headed in these dark days? And how long will the 4T last? Could it be short and ugly, like the Civil War, or long and hopeful, like the Depression/WWII? What is going to happen in the rest of this decade to shape the societal mood?

It's possible that 9/11 was indeed the 4T Catalyst, but that Hurricane Katrina was the Social Moment at which point people began to realize that the country was in big trouble. With many Turning changes, the immediate effect is that everything is suddenly changed, then the mood appears to wear off as things get "back to normal"... almost, but not quite.

Consider about what happened when the 2T rolled in at Dealey Plaza. People were horror-and grief-stricken when Kennedy was assassinated... for months. But by the day I started Kindergarten... Thursday, September 11, 1964... our Principal told us at our Orientation that we had a wonderful new President in Lyndon Baines Johnson and that everything was going to be OK. And so it was... for a while. Over the next few years, the High mood pretty much returned... mostly. A few items were noticeably different to me, even as a 5 year old. Music for one... a curious movement called Beatlemania began... there was "Dancing In The Streets" to something called Motown... and some other guy on the radio kept singing about not getting any "Satisfaction", whatever that was. Catchy airline commercials suddenly beckoned ordinary folks to fly "Up Up and Away!" on TWA and PanAm "made the going great!". But overall life did go on as usual. It wasn't until July 1967, the Summer of Love and the Newark Riots, when it became obvious that the times really had changed and there was no going back to the High.

Something similar, if a tad less dramatic, happened during the 2T/3T shift. The election of Ronald Reagan represented a sea change in American politics in 1980 (yeah I know the Authors say 1984, but...). His supporters hailed this event as a triumph over the evil perpetrators of the Consciousness Revolution, a "Conservative Wave" that would soon wash the Nation of Sex, Drugs and Disco... while Reagan's detractors feared the coming of a new American fascism. By '84 it was obvious that neither extreme was quite happening... and the world seemed to be settling into merely a less frenetic Awakening mood. Then came Challenger on January 28, 1986... and the shattering of America's post-War can-do mindset for good. The country hasn't been the same since.

In both cases, the actual Catalyst started the ball rolling toward the new mood, but it took a much later Social Moment to verify the change in the minds of most people. We may be witnessing this process at work again at this very moment as people wake up to a new 4T.

Yes, that does make sense. In that case we are already well into the new 4T, but haven't yet hit the breaking point -- nuclear war with Iran? North Korea? A Great Devaluation?

I'd like to know what events people foresee in our cycle's 4T. My personal predictions are pretty general, but here they are:

• The current economic Indian Summer collapses around the end of the decade (perhaps even 80 years after Black Tuesday!). Sure, people are pessimistic about the economy, but you don't see the desperation yet. So, somewhere between 2008 and 2012, we see the housing market crash and the jobs situation absolutely crumble.
• Threats from Iran, North Korea, and other hostile states grow during the next decade, eventually culminating in all-out war. US suddenly finds itself desperate for international alliances, and WWIII begins.
• Peak oil hits later, perhaps as far into the Crisis as Pearl Harbor was in 1941. This is an international disaster, but a GC helps us lead out of it with some kind of alternative energy as backup. (And no, it won't be Al Gore by then, since he'll be dead or very very old)

This Crisis could be the most destructive, and badly prepared for, yet. At the end of it I think the world will be exhausted and much of it destroyed. On a better note, it could be so destructive that the world agrees to eliminate nuclear weapons. The following High will be significantly more low-key and humble than our last from 1946-64. The 46-64 High will go down in history as America's apogee, and this next High more as the beginning of a humbler, more aware America. The "global superpower" title may shift to another democratic country, and Americans will simply be so relieved from surviving the 4T that they are willing to be second banana for a saeculum or too.

Any thoughts on my predictions? Predictions of your own? I'd love to hear what you guys think will be major events in this 4T.

Originally Posted by 1990

• The current economic Indian Summer collapses around the end of the decade (perhaps even 80 years after Black Tuesday!). Sure, people are pessimistic about the economy, but you don't see the desperation yet. So, somewhere between 2008 and 2012, we see the housing market crash and the jobs situation absolutely crumble.
• Threats from Iran, North Korea, and other hostile states grow during the next decade, eventually culminating in all-out war. US suddenly finds itself desperate for international alliances, and WWIII begins.
• Peak oil hits later, perhaps as far into the Crisis as Pearl Harbor was in 1941. This is an international disaster, but a GC helps us lead out of it with some kind of alternative energy as backup. (And no, it won't be Al Gore by then, since he'll be dead or very very old)

Heh, such a Millie. You're waaay too optimistic.

• The housing bubble has already burst. New home sales and prices have been declining since March; now, existing home inventories are building dramatically (tripling from a year ago), which means that prices will soon be falling there as well. Construction jobs are already disappearing fast. The ripple effects will be felt throughout the economy within 6 months.
  
• Neither North Korea nor Iran even remotely poses a military threat to the United States. (Now, if we were to try to invade either, we'd get our asses handed to us; but that's a different issue.) China is the only country that could actually threaten the mainland. I predict that jingoist rhetoric against China will be a major component of the 2008 Presidential campaign.
  
• Peak Oil (defined as reaching the maximum level of total crude production and beginning an irreversible decline) is already here. We won't feel the effects of it too strongly at first, because prices will actually decline due to greatly reduced demand after the economy tanks.
• As for the GC, I'm not sure why you dismiss Al Gore so quickly. Even if the worst of the Crisis is another 12 years off, as you imply, he'd still only be 70 years old, the same age as Reagan when he took office. He may or may not personally be the GC, but I'd wager it will be somebody about his age.

Originally Posted by 1990

As we all know, Strauss & Howe predicted that there would be a shift from Unraveling to Crisis around the year 2005. There's been a ton of debate here about when the Crisis started or will start. Having already brought that question up twice, without a decisive consensus, that is not what I'm asking in this thread.

Let's say 9/11 was too early for true 4T-ness. Let's say the Iraq invasion was too early. Now, recall the 2004 election. Iraq and terrorism were the major issues. But, when the campaigning was done and the results were in, there was still a narrow plurality (about 1/4) saying that their main issue in choosing between Bush and Kerry was "moral values". True, if you combined those who answered "Iraq" and those who answered "terrorism", those two issues were far more than the moral values crowd. But it indicated that there was still a fragment of Culture Wars going on. Indeed, 2004 was the year of the gay marriage debate and other Culture Wars controversies. A lot of people were still very fired-up over social issues and considered those before more "urgent" issues.

The culture wars begin to slow down, but even if we are in 4T, don't assume that it will vanish overnight. In 1774 and 1775, one of the largest debates was whether inoculation against smallpox was denying the will of God (nevermind that widespread unrest gripped the colony during those years).

As Bush was inaugurated for a second term, he seemed to have gotten a post-election bounce in the polls during winter. Democrats were depressed, feeling that nothing had changed since 2000, and that the Newt Gingrich moralists from the late '90s still ruled.

But a curious thing happened in 2005. Suddenly around spring, severe pessimism set in. Despite endless efforts by politicians to prove that the economy and the war on terror are going well, pessimism is immovable.

I'm not certain about that. Consumer confidence began to skyrocket after gas prices fell. But then again, investor confidence also spiked sometime in 1930, and again sometime in 1931. There are, of course, a number of events (such as the falling housing market), that could put a quick and icy end to any hopes.

And the Culture Wars era seems to be coming to a close. Congress tried a flag burning amendment and a gay marriage amendment again this year (hoping to revive '04 passions) and both failed with surprisingly little media coverage or public debate. People don't seem to be talking anymore about God, guns, and gays. It's all about the horrendous state of affairs in government and society.

So perhaps 2005 did start us in a new Crisis. Wedge issues that were highly successful for both parties in the 1990s and earlier this decade are no longer so. Instead, minimizing the damage of the Iraq War, fixing our universally-criticized health care system, and the supposed darkness of the future are on everyone's minds. 2004 was not like this.

I noticed that. The culture wars seem to have died down considerably.

Instead of making this yet another "are we in 4T yet?" thread, I intend this to be a thread for predictions and thoughts on the future. Let's temporarily go off of the premise that 2005 was the year. Now what? What will the next few years be like? Are we approaching WWIII, or will an economic collapse happen first? Where are we headed in these dark days? And how long will the 4T last? Could it be short and ugly, like the Civil War, or long and hopeful, like the Depression/WWII? What is going to happen in the rest of this decade to shape the societal mood?

Here are some possibilities.

• Unrest, Rioting, Insurrection -- America could act out one of its greatest and most cherished of traditions - of rising up against a ruling entity viewed as corrupt or inept. This occurred in Virginia in 1675, in the colonies in the years 1688 - 1692. This happened with the Revolutionary War. This happened again in the 1930s and 1940s, but didn't involved an armed civil conflict (like it had done in Spain). And it is likely to happen again. Such a social conflict can be peaceful, or violent. The most recent prototype for such upheaval is the revolution in Argentina in late 2001. Such a movement could very well be enchanced using Internet communication and media technologies. While riots and social disorder might be likely, I think that armed civil conflict is very unlikely in the short term.
  
• Militaristic Coup -- Anyone on this website who knows about the recent coup in Thailand probably wonder whether something similar could happen here. Some people believe that a Coup has already taken place in the US in 2000 and 2004, and with the USA PATRIOT Act. Even if it has already taken place, some event could cause the military to officially take control of the nation (could Bush incompetence drive this coup?)
  
• Economic Hardship -- The breaks in the linkages of civilization will cause real hardship. Many products will be less available, perhaps by a war or upheaval somewhere around the world. Energy will be expensive, at times spiking. Housing could push the nation into a nasty recession as early as later this year. Inflation is possible. Or, of course, the US Dollar could crash. The economic hardship might not be as bad as the Depression (or could be worse than it), but it is likely to be more severe than the late 1970s/early 1980s economic slump.
  
• Energy Crisis -- Economic hardship, material shortages, or geopolitical instability could bring hard times with regards to energy. There could be more rolling blackouts, and new measures to conserve energy. Public transportation will be revitalized, and could even hit a growth spurt. There will be many increasing efforts, public and private, to solve the energy problem.
  
• Global War -- If Newt Gingrich is right, then we could quickly be sucked into a third world war.
  
• Upheaval in Media -- The media environment is already becoming split between the old media (television, radio, print) and the new media (internet powered). At the same time, we are in an era of media convergence. People will argue, and act upon which technologies will build the new media infrastructure, the truthfulness of the media, and how news is produced and transmitted. From the standpoint of 1995, the media landscape of 2020 will likely be very unrecognizable.
  
• The New Utopianism -- As we head into 4T, we should expect to see a dramatic rise of new utopian thought and discussion entering the national consciousness. This happened in every Crisis, from the new utopianism of the 1770s, to the utopianism of the 1930s. This is a certain as the nation turns its consciousness towards the future. In fact, utopianism is actually wedging in at this moment. This will mean a revitalization of science fiction. Much of the utopianism will be tired to some Millennarian-esque (religious and secular) memeplex. While mainly older people will picture a future with less technology and with a more natural/spiritual/religious style of living, others (including many older people) will picture a future with more technology and with a different relationship of technology to man. At the same time, society will moving in these directions. These visions could fuel - or even lead to - new movements.
  
• The New Rationalism -- The non-religious segment of the population will continue to rise in number and power in society. People will rediscover reason in both public and private life. People will begin to generally hold science to higher esteem, especially in an era in which science could be crucial to resolving material shortages and material hardship. People will begin to attack "unreason" in public life.

More later.

I'm starting to think that Katrina, the bursting housing bubble rising gas prices (the current drops won't last long, prices are being manipulated to keep the Republicans in power), and growing disgust towards the Iraq debacle seem to be the catalysts. The Republicans will barely keep control in Congress this November. The housing bust will drag the economy into recession, causing the Dems to gain control of Congress and the White House in '08.

Originally Posted by Odin

I'm starting to think that Katrina, the bursting housing bubble rising gas prices (the current drops won't last long, prices are being manipulated to keep the Republicans in power), and growing disgust towards the Iraq debacle seem to be the catalysts. The Republicans will barely keep control in Congress this November. The housing bust will drag the economy into recession, causing the Dems to gain control of Congress and the White House in '08.

I tended to agree with this until the Foley story broke last week. Say what you wish about lowest common denominators but people pay attention to and understand a sex scandal when they get one.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Originally Posted by Odin
I'm starting to think that Katrina, the bursting housing bubble rising gas prices (the current drops won't last long, prices are being manipulated to keep the Republicans in power), and growing disgust towards the Iraq debacle seem to be the catalysts. The Republicans will barely keep control in Congress this November. The housing bust will drag the economy into recession, causing the Dems to gain control of Congress and the White House in '08.

I tended to agree with this until the Foley story broke last week. Say what you wish about lowest common denominators but people pay attention to and understand a sex scandal when they get one.

And the fuss over the Lindbergh baby kidnapping, the Dionne quintuplets, and the abdication of King Edward VIII of England to marry an American divorcee weren't occurrences that captivated people during the last 4T?

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

And the fuss over the Lindbergh baby kidnapping, the Dionne quintuplets, and the abdication of King Edward VIII of England to marry an American divorcee weren't occurrences that captivated people during the last 4T?

Foleygate may actually be a catalyst by forcing the fact of the moral bankruptcy and hypocracy of the Republican party on people.

Originally Posted by Odin

Foleygate may actually be a catalyst by forcing the fact of the moral bankruptcy and hypocracy of the Republican party on people.

No, not the Catalyst, since that event has likely occurred... ask people today when everything started going to hell, and most will say 9.11. However, the Foley debacle may well be part of the ongoing Social Moment, as more and more people realize how bad things really are.

Doesn't Foleygate smack of the Harper Valley PTA? After hall, he led the crusade against things that harm kids and teens, and yet he turned out to be guilty of many of the things he championed against.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Doesn't Foleygate smack of the Harper Valley PTA? After hall, he led the crusade against things that harm kids and teens, and yet he turned out to be guilty of many of the things he championed against.

It's almost like one of those "B" grade mystery movies. The type where the hero-detective deduces that the top accuser of the defendant is the guilty party. In the final scene, as the hero explains to the judge and jury (or posse if the theme is western) just how the evidence leads to the true criminal, the same tries to make a breakaway and is forcably subdued in one manner or another.

Perhaps that the increasing incompetance of the neocons coupled with the perception of the democrats are weaklings could mean that politics may face massive changes involving third parties. Quite possibly the 4T may see a resurgence of the paleoconservative buchananites in conjunction with a resurgence of the Authoritarian Left.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Perhaps that the increasing incompetance of the neocons coupled with the perception of the democrats are weaklings could mean that politics may face massive changes involving third parties. Quite possibly the 4T may see a resurgence of the paleoconservative buchananites in conjunction with a resurgence of the Authoritarian Left.

I think that the nature of the Crisis and this cycle will encourage a Libertarian rather than Authoritarian Left. The Authoritarian Left was repudiated during this cycle, while it remained popular in the prior one. During that prior one, the libertarian left was much less influential than it is today compared to the Authoritarian Left. The prior Awakening made the authoritarian left rather unpopular. And today, the surge is not on the authoritarian side, but rather on the libertarian side. The netroots tend to be heavily libertarian, and the ideologies for this cycle tend to be more libertarian.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Perhaps that the increasing incompetance of the neocons coupled with the perception of the democrats are weaklings could mean that politics may face massive changes involving third parties. Quite possibly the 4T may see a resurgence of the paleoconservative buchananites in conjunction with a resurgence of the Authoritarian Left.

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

I think that the nature of the Crisis and this cycle will encourage a Libertarian rather than Authoritarian Left. The Authoritarian Left was repudiated during this cycle, while it remained popular in the prior one. During that prior one, the libertarian left was much less influential than it is today compared to the Authoritarian Left. The prior Awakening made the authoritarian left rather unpopular. And today, the surge is not on the authoritarian side, but rather on the libertarian side. The netroots tend to be heavily libertarian, and the ideologies for this cycle tend to be more libertarian.

I'll vote for that. However the next few years play-out, the heavy handedness of the last few should make Authoritarianism a hard sell ... assuming, of course, that the public finally realizes they've been suckered.