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Thread: The future of the West. - Page 13







Post#301 at 03-12-2014 12:41 AM by Bad Dog [at joined Dec 2012 #posts 2,156]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Radionuclides, sure. Vast quantities of soot and ash dwarfing the effects of, say, Mt. Pinatubo blowing in 1991? Unlikely.

It's worth pointing out that the Year without a Summer was so devastating to life on this planet that... nobody has really heard of it.
I have. A nuclear exchange nowadays would have less total effect, but great economic and social chaos. The electromagnetic effects would matter more, now.







Post#302 at 03-12-2014 12:43 AM by Bad Dog [at joined Dec 2012 #posts 2,156]
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The Icelandic, Indonesia, and Yellowstone time bombs are a real concern.







Post#303 at 03-12-2014 01:12 AM by Vandal-72 [at Idaho joined Jul 2012 #posts 1,101]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Radionuclides, sure. Vast quantities of soot and ash dwarfing the effects of, say, Mt. Pinatubo blowing in 1991? Unlikely.

It's worth pointing out that the Year without a Summer was so devastating to life on this planet that... nobody has really heard of it.
Let's see . . 1816 = 1 billion people on Earth and 2014 = 7 billion. Yep, the effects would be exactly the same on today's tightly interlinked global food system versus 1816's primarily pre-industrial system.







Post#304 at 03-12-2014 03:21 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
The ancient and medieval idea that certain aspects of human nature are unchangable needs to be revived. The enlightenment has enabled far more genocides than it has prevented.
Evolution seems to be a fact, even if science does not understand it as well as it thinks. Change has happened to every species over time. Only if you go back to Biblical creation myth and take it as fact, can you believe that human nature doesn't change.

The Enlightenment and Modern times has opened up a can of worms. It led to the American and French Revolutions, and subsequent movements and revolutions. But there have been other times of transition equally catastrophic, with equally-horrible genocides, ever since civilization began. If anything, it is civilization itself that has "enabled far more genocides than it has prevented."

We are emerging from a time of transition from a world ruled by kings and emperors, to a world where human rights, self-government and self-determination are respected. It has been a difficult change, and has been accompanied (probably inevitably) by revolutions in science, industry and culture that have unleashed powerful new forces. Since humans are not evolved enough to control their reactions, impulses and fears, powerful new forces and ideas can be dangerous.

That is why the Revolution led to the holocausts of World Wars, Nazism and Totalitarianism. And the racial ideology IS derived from modern thought, although it also included revivals of ancient tribalism. But this holocaust destroyed the powerful ancient and medieval empires that had mis-ruled and enslaved the world, and since then democracy has strengthened and expanded everywhere. That is a tremendous advance worth celebrating. Reversions like we see in Russia and America today are inevitable, because human evolution is incomplete and ongoing. Greed, fear and ignorance are still rampant. The new and old forces can still distract and obstruct us. Science and traditional religion are still often mis-worshipped as gods. But we have entered a new world, with endless creative tools and possibilities available to us for the first time ever. And we are one world. These are facts, not utopian dreams. There is no excuse for cynicism. It is our choice to create a renaissance today, or to wallow in war and false ideologies instead.

Let us look around us, look deeply within ourselves and beyond mainstream culture, be inspired by all the past that is available to us for the first time ever, and create some beautiful new things and societies! The way to go is to move forward, not to go back. The past was oppressive, poor, diseased, narrow-minded, backward, and violent. There is much to be inspired by and learned from the past. Humans have done great things in spite of obstacles we can't even imagine today. But there is nothing worth restoring. We have everything to gain by evolving and opening up to the new inspiration of today.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#305 at 03-12-2014 11:08 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bad Dog View Post
I have. A nuclear exchange nowadays would have less total effect, but great economic and social chaos. The electromagnetic effects would matter more, now.
Oh, I have no doubt it would cause severe havoc, in all those aspects you mentioned. I just get a little tired of listening to people talk about us destroying all life on this planet. A nuclear exchange would be horrible, tens if not hundreds of millions of people would die, depending on how many were used, but life and civilization would go on.

PS BTW, you've heard of it because you're a geek. You haven't heard of it because memory of the horror has been passed down from generation to generation orally.







Post#306 at 03-12-2014 11:09 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bad Dog View Post
The Icelandic, Indonesia, and Yellowstone time bombs are a real concern.
Now you're talking!







Post#307 at 03-12-2014 11:15 AM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by Vandal-72 View Post
Let's see . . 1816 = 1 billion people on Earth and 2014 = 7 billion. Yep, the effects would be exactly the same on today's tightly interlinked global food system versus 1816's primarily pre-industrial system.
HE'S HERE!! WOO HOO!!

I don't agree that the one necessarily follows from the other. What specifically do you mean? Are you arguing that there are fewer reserves of food, now versus then? That industrial agriculture is less resilient to bad weather than a pre-industrial system? Would you expect the effects of nuclear winter specifically to be more pronounced in industrialized countries versus developing ones?







Post#308 at 03-12-2014 02:23 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Evolution seems to be a fact, even if science does not understand it as well as it thinks. Change has happened to every species over time. Only if you go back to Biblical creation myth and take it as fact, can you believe that human nature doesn't change.

The Enlightenment and Modern times has opened up a can of worms. It led to the American and French Revolutions, and subsequent movements and revolutions. But there have been other times of transition equally catastrophic, with equally-horrible genocides, ever since civilization began. If anything, it is civilization itself that has "enabled far more genocides than it has prevented."

We are emerging from a time of transition from a world ruled by kings and emperors, to a world where human rights, self-government and self-determination are respected. It has been a difficult change, and has been accompanied (probably inevitably) by revolutions in science, industry and culture that have unleashed powerful new forces. Since humans are not evolved enough to control their reactions, impulses and fears, powerful new forces and ideas can be dangerous.

That is why the Revolution led to the holocausts of World Wars, Nazism and Totalitarianism. And the racial ideology IS derived from modern thought, although it also included revivals of ancient tribalism. But this holocaust destroyed the powerful ancient and medieval empires that had mis-ruled and enslaved the world, and since then democracy has strengthened and expanded everywhere. That is a tremendous advance worth celebrating. Reversions like we see in Russia and America today are inevitable, because human evolution is incomplete and ongoing. Greed, fear and ignorance are still rampant. The new and old forces can still distract and obstruct us. Science and traditional religion are still often mis-worshipped as gods. But we have entered a new world, with endless creative tools and possibilities available to us for the first time ever. And we are one world. These are facts, not utopian dreams. There is no excuse for cynicism. It is our choice to create a renaissance today, or to wallow in war and false ideologies instead.

Let us look around us, look deeply within ourselves and beyond mainstream culture, be inspired by all the past that is available to us for the first time ever, and create some beautiful new things and societies! The way to go is to move forward, not to go back. The past was oppressive, poor, diseased, narrow-minded, backward, and violent. There is much to be inspired by and learned from the past. Humans have done great things in spite of obstacles we can't even imagine today. But there is nothing worth restoring. We have everything to gain by evolving and opening up to the new inspiration of today.
The only way evolution fixes the human spirit enough to end war for all time is to arrive at the point where humans are displaced by angels. I don't think we can count on that solution.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#309 at 03-12-2014 02:54 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Eric Meece: devout believer in the modern cult of Progress.







Post#310 at 03-12-2014 03:36 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Eric Meece: devout believer in the modern cult of Progress.
As one of the commenters noted, progress has been bumpy, but continuous. The bumpiness is the part we tend to igmnore. The Black Plague was certainly not an act of progress in any sense, except that it was. It made human labor more valuable due entirely to the shortage of it at the time. It may even be considered a root cause of Western social progress.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#311 at 03-12-2014 03:42 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
As one of the commenters noted, progress has been bumpy, but continuous. The bumpiness is the part we tend to igmnore. The Black Plague was certainly not an act of progress in any sense, except that it was. It made human labor more valuable due entirely to the shortage of it at the time. It may even be considered a root cause of Western social progress.
"Progress" is not a law. There is nothing written down in the bowels of the universe that says that things must get "better" every year. In the absence of new frontiers or energy sources, the material basis of our continued growth will likely begin to falter, as it has for every other civilization in the past.

What that'll look like depends on what people do. That is all.







Post#312 at 03-12-2014 04:05 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
"Progress" is not a law. There is nothing written down in the bowels of the universe that says that things must get "better" every year. In the absence of new frontiers or energy sources, the material basis of our continued growth will likely begin to falter, as it has for every other civilization in the past.

What that'll look like depends on what people do. That is all.
Like I wrote: bumpy. Then again, we know a lot more about our world now than we ever have. If coal was set aside as the basic building block of plastics and other stable chemicals, we would have enough to last millenia ... but it isn't. The same for oil and natural gas. These are choices we make, sometimes many times before we hit on someting workable. Then time happens, new problems emerge, and the process repeats.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#313 at 03-12-2014 04:09 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Like, I said, assuming progress as a given isn't reason, it's ideology. Really, it's religion.







Post#314 at 03-13-2014 12:36 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
The only way evolution fixes the human spirit enough to end war for all time is to arrive at the point where humans are displaced by angels. I don't think we can count on that solution.
It will take a while, but human beings will evolve into angels (of some kind).

But my point is that human nature is not fixed; it changes and evolves. So an ideology that seeks to return to a time when human nature was assumed to be fixed, is a lie.

There is a lot less war than there used to be. In most developed countries, in most places, you can walk the streets safely, and there's no war going on. That didn't used to be true. We can live in peace if we choose to, and wherever real democracy exists because the people want it. The peace movement cycle of revolution began in the sixties. The goal is no more war. So it may only be one or two hundred years before this is true.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#315 at 03-13-2014 12:41 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
As one of the commenters noted, progress has been bumpy, but continuous. The bumpiness is the part we tend to ignore. The Black Plague was certainly not an act of progress in any sense, except that it was. It made human labor more valuable due entirely to the shortage of it at the time. It may even be considered a root cause of Western social progress.
"The arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice"-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Progress happens because evolution continues. But the route is bumpy and circuitous. And we need to understand what real progress is. Spiritual and moral progress, is real progress. Not just more technical inventions, which the media and corporations like GE focus on as "progress."
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#316 at 03-13-2014 01:09 PM by Copperfield [at joined Feb 2010 #posts 2,244]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
"The arc of history is long, but it bends toward justice"-- Martin Luther King Jr.

Progress happens because evolution continues. But the route is bumpy and circuitous. And we need to understand what real progress is. Spiritual and moral progress, is real progress. Not just more technical inventions, which the media and corporations like GE focus on as "progress."
I believe you have already been informed on multiple occasions that evolution is not progress nor is it progressive. I guess it didn't take.







Post#317 at 03-13-2014 02:09 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Quote Originally Posted by Copperfield View Post
I believe you have already been informed on multiple occasions that evolution is not progress nor is it progressive. I guess it didn't take.
Yes I have been "informed." I disagree. I guess that means that yes, I am speaking although I am "not knowledgeable" about "science." But I do in fact understand the so-called science involved. I still disagree. Philosophy trumps science. It is obvious from observation that life has become more complex and conscious during evolution, just as Pierre Teilhard de Chardin observed. I am entitled to my opinion that his ideas trump the narrow-minded observations of ideologically-imprisoned, conventional biological science. Being fixed in your ideology, I know that you, Mr. Copperfield, will "stick to your guns."

I guess you don't think that life has progressed from 4 billion years ago, when only single-celled organisms existed, until today when human beings exist along with single-celled organisms. I know you don't think that today's humans live better than the Cro-Magnon cave men or the Neanderthals did. I know some of our politicians act is if they were single-celled organisms, or only had a single brain cell in their head; but don't you think that is exaggerating things, just a bit?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#318 at 03-13-2014 02:44 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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In order to secure a prosperous and safe future for america, what is needed is the restorationist reforms i mentioned in numerous other posts, the civil-military education system, the establishment of the anglophone union, the establishment of the civil-military administrative class. The building up of the nuclear arsenal to several times larger than cold war levels, the vassalization of latin america and the general pacification of the middle east needs to be carried out as well. With regards to the pacification of the middle east, the goal is to secure the total defeat of islamism by carrying out a comprehensive and if nessessary, the demographic and cultural de-islamization of the middle east, north africa and west central asia. The islamist cleric class at the very least would need to be eliminated. This will not only eliminate the islamist threat but also the methods of pacification in the spirit of ghenghis khan would generate much respect and renown for america, in the foreign policy arena particularly in our relations of other nuclear powers, this would a bolster US security because of restorationist policies and their resultant deterrent effect especially in the diplomatic and military arenas but also with regards to economic relations as well.







Post#319 at 03-13-2014 08:09 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
In order to secure a prosperous and safe future for america, what is needed is the restorationist reforms i mentioned in numerous other posts, the civil-military education system, the establishment of the anglophone union, the establishment of the civil-military administrative class. The building up of the nuclear arsenal to several times larger than cold war levels, the vassalization of latin america and the general pacification of the middle east needs to be carried out as well. With regards to the pacification of the middle east, the goal is to secure the total defeat of islamism by carrying out a comprehensive and if nessessary, the demographic and cultural de-islamization of the middle east, north africa and west central asia. The islamist cleric class at the very least would need to be eliminated. This will not only eliminate the islamist threat but also the methods of pacification in the spirit of ghenghis khan would generate much respect and renown for america, in the foreign policy arena particularly in our relations of other nuclear powers, this would a bolster US security because of restorationist policies and their resultant deterrent effect especially in the diplomatic and military arenas but also with regards to economic relations as well.
Seriously, guy, join the military. Put your life where your mouth is. Don't you want to be part of the "meritocratic elite"?







Post#320 at 03-13-2014 09:03 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Yes I have been "informed." I disagree. I guess that means that yes, I am speaking although I am "not knowledgeable" about "science." But I do in fact understand the so-called science involved. I still disagree. Philosophy trumps science. It is obvious from observation that life has become more complex and conscious during evolution, just as Pierre Teilhard de Chardin observed. I am entitled to my opinion that his ideas trump the narrow-minded observations of ideologically-imprisoned, conventional biological science. Being fixed in your ideology, I know that you, Mr. Copperfield, will "stick to your guns."

I guess you don't think that life has progressed from 4 billion years ago, when only single-celled organisms existed, until today when human beings exist along with single-celled organisms. I know you don't think that today's humans live better than the Cro-Magnon cave men or the Neanderthals did. I know some of our politicians act is if they were single-celled organisms, or only had a single brain cell in their head; but don't you think that is exaggerating things, just a bit?
Good old teleological fallacy hard to work. I love how you make this little switch back and forth from "so-called Science" to "Science proves that x" as it suits you.

Whatever it takes to justify the ultimate truth, Eric's opinions.







Post#321 at 03-13-2014 11:52 PM by XYMOX_4AD_84 [at joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,073]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
Good old teleological fallacy hard to work. I love how you make this little switch back and forth from "so-called Science" to "Science proves that x" as it suits you.

Whatever it takes to justify the ultimate truth, Eric's opinions.
The Hopeful Monsters of Earth's next Era could well be throwbacks to more primitive forms. As you note, progress is not a given. Evolution is highly non linear and chaotic. It does not always proceed as an advancement of life forms. In fact, at some point, if we life forms do not leave Earth, for sure, evolution will move life essentially backwards. At the end ... the last microbes ... and then ... no more life at all. Then the planet itself will perish in a blaze of Solar glory, as Sol evolves into a much larger star.







Post#322 at 03-14-2014 03:20 PM by TnT [at joined Feb 2005 #posts 2,005]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
... There is a lot less war than there used to be. ...
Would you like to flesh this out a bit? I'm just thinking back in my short lifetime of 72 years on the planet and when I read your statement, I can only stand here with my mouth hanging open ...

On what basis can one say there is less war than there used to be?
" ... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition."







Post#323 at 03-14-2014 03:28 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by TnT View Post
Would you like to flesh this out a bit? I'm just thinking back in my short lifetime of 72 years on the planet and when I read your statement, I can only stand here with my mouth hanging open ...

On what basis can one say there is less war than there used to be?
I'd hate to be speak for Eric, unless by doing so I could get him to stop talking (sorry, couldn't resist), but I think he's talking about the decline in state to state conflict since the end of WWII.

Of course, as Nassim Taleb pointed out, this could easily revert to the mean with a massive, high casualty war without breaking the underlying (level) trend. Kind of what happened with WWI / WWII after the hundred years of relative peace since the end of the Napoleonic Wars.
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Post#324 at 03-14-2014 04:01 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by JordanGoodspeed View Post
I'd hate to be speak for Eric, unless by doing so I could get him to stop talking (sorry, couldn't resist), but I think he's talking about the decline in state to state conflict since the end of WWII.

Of course, as Nassim Taleb pointed out, this could easily revert to the mean with a massive, high casualty war without breaking the underlying (level) trend. Kind of what happened with WWI / WWII after the hundred years of relative peace since the end of the Napoleonic Wars.
True enough, though this is the first time in history that the potential level of destruction from unlimited war can render all participants net losers. There won't even be a pyrric victory.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#325 at 03-14-2014 04:11 PM by JordanGoodspeed [at joined Mar 2013 #posts 3,587]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
True enough, though this is the first time in history that the potential level of destruction from unlimited war can render all participants net losers. There won't even be a pyrric victory.
No Pyrrhic victory? I don't see why not.
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