Yesterday's elections were seismic. Everybody knew the Democrats were going to gain seats in both chambers of Congress (and likely win a narrow majority in the House). Well, everybody except President Bush. But what appears to have happened is much more interesting than that. Not only are Democrats on course to have gained around 30 seats in the House (thus giving them a sizable and functioning majority) and 6 in the Senate (for a bare majority in what has always been the more moderate chamber anyway), but overnight, LITERALLY, the political winds have shifted.

My personal belief is that we are in Crisis, and that 9/11 was the catalyst. Like many 4Ts, an upsetting event shook us and brought us together briefly, but all too soon the atmosphere decayed again into bitter vitriol and partisanship. Just as the darkest early days of the Depression (pre-New Deal) created a severely acrimonious political system and dysfunctionality in Congress, the post-9/11 years have been wrought with Culture Wars mudslinging and a party-above-all mindset in Washington. But something changed last night.

The Democrats didn't win by a few seats. Their House majority will be about as big as the Republicans' has been at its peak. I was most shocked to see President Bush pick up on the public mood, rejecting his usual aura of defiance and self-assuredness in favor of true humility. He has been out there campaigning with Karl Rovian style all year, but today his announcement of the Rumsfeld resignation, and his bizarrely genuine mood of contrition and collegiality toward Speaker-to-be Pelosi has shaken the political world. All the news commentators talked about this. Not only has Bush taken on a more compromising mood, Pelosi is acting like the most level-headed Speaker since God-knows-when.

Now of course, every election politicians talk bipartisanship for about 3 hours. But I can feel something different this time. Democrats are talking about common-sense reforms -- raising the minimum wage, negotiating lower prescription drug prices, implementing the 9/11 commission recommendations -- as their first goals in the majority. Not some controversial plan for immediate withdrawal from Iraq. Not an investigation of the Bush White House. In fact, Nancy Pelosi is taking impeachment off the table and is apparently choosing to make her speakership about real cooperation. It is so refreshing I can barely believe what has hit us.

Celebrity trials and other Culture Wars follies will not disappear from public life; in fact, they will continue in a low-grade fashion for a while. The Lindbergh baby kidnapping, very much a 3T celebrity event, captivated Americans during the height of the Depression. But Washington is changing. There is no "gotcha" gloating on the part of the Democrats, and no sour-grapes from the Republicans. I note that while there are a lot of razor-thin races this year in the House, and some recounts are mandatory, I am not hearing the kind of raw anger we got after Florida in 2000 or even Ohio in 2004. Maybe, just maybe, our politicians are ready to govern.

Will this mood evaporate by Friday? Or is the Regeneracy here?

And John Hall from Orleans won. The Baby Boomer generation has come full circle. They are still having fun. And they are still the one. Now if only Steely Dan would run for governor and AG in California.

Originally Posted by 1990

Will this mood evaporate by Friday? Or is the Regeneracy here?

I think the Regeneracy has definitely arrived, but it won't be until 2008 presidential election that it fully "crystalizes." Turnout was absolutely MASSIVE for a mid-term election in many areas, a good indicator of a Regeneracy.

Originally Posted by Uzi

And John Hall from Orleans won. The Baby Boomer generation has come full circle. They are still having fun. And they are still the one. Now if only Steely Dan would run for governor and AG in California.

You do know, of course, that there is no person called "Steely Dan". The group was named after a character prop from an Erica Jong novel ("Fear Of Flying"?)... specifically, a dildo! :-D)))

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

You do know, of course, that there is no person called "Steely Dan". The group was named after a character prop from an Erica Jong novel ("Fear Of Flying"?)... specifically, a dildo! :-D)))

I'm two steps ahead of you chief. I - son of Boomers - am too familiar with "Peg" and "Hey Nineteen." I was saying that perhaps Fagan would take on the Governator while Beckett could by attorney general in Calif.

If the regeneracy has begun, this I feel may be the most attenuated 4th turning I've ever imagined. As some can tell, I'm awfully perplexed. What would we be expecting to truly mark the 4T when all these good feelings come flooding in all of a sudden? It certainly has a 1932 feeling to it, but what else could possibly happen from now?

Whatever, I'm looking forward to whatever is this saeculum's equivalent to the 1939 World Fair. Politics aren't my strong point anyway.

So, predictions on the starting year for the 1st turning?

Originally Posted by Andy '85

If the regeneracy has begun, this I feel may be the most attenuated 4th turning I've ever imagined. As some can tell, I'm awfully perplexed. What would we be expecting to truly mark the 4T when all these good feelings come flooding in all of a sudden? It certainly has a 1932 feeling to it, but what else could possibly happen from now?

Whatever, I'm looking forward to whatever is this saeculum's equivalent to the 1939 World Fair. Politics aren't my strong point anyway.

So, predictions on the starting year for the 1st turning?

I don't think we'll be having the same kind of 4T as the established hegemon we had as the emergent one. As the so-called Necessary Nation, the rest of the world tends to absorb some of the cost of maintaining the US in the style we find acceptable in return for military and economic managment services - many of which are not delivered. In turn, we agree insert ourselves in the world's hot-spots, and act as international guarantor of business peace.

Of course, 4Ts have a way of defining themselves

When we are no longer able or willing to carry that burden, the following 4T might be more domestic and potentially more severe.

No way the regeneracy has begun. I expect things to return to normalcy until something really hits us. Bush will be angry at the Democrats and the Democrats will be angry at Bush in no time, and nothing will get done, just like the last few years.

Something is going to shock us and force us into the regeneracy. I seriously doubt it will be an election.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

No way the regeneracy has begun. I expect things to return to normalcy until something really hits us. Bush will be angry at the Democrats and the Democrats will be angry at Bush in no time and nothing will get done. Just like the last few years.

I totally agree. If anything, the Cascade is still new. I fear we ain't seen nothin' yet.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Something is going to shock us and force us into the regeneracy. I seriously doubt it will be an election.

Well, it could be E2K8. But of course you're probably right on that.

Originally Posted by Uzi

I'm two steps ahead of you chief. I - son of Boomers - am too familiar with "Peg" and "Hey Nineteen." I was saying that perhaps Fagan would take on the Governator while Beckett could by attorney general in Calif.

Yeah, I was hoping you were!

But it is funny how many times I've seen their albums listed in music catalogues and record stores under "Dan, Steely".

I think this election has numerous indications that 2008 has a very strong potential to be a regeneracy election, for a few reasons:
- Voter turnout was high for a midterm election, and youth voting was also quite higher than normal, although still low compared to other generations.
- Decisive results, and nationwide trends. Democrats and certain liberal ballot measures won/passed where you wouldn't expect it. For the Senate, Democrats picked up seats in red states Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and Virginia. Democrats picked up governorships in red states Arkansas, Colorado, and Ohio. Democrats picked up House seats in red states Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. And of all the states that had a gay-marriage ban on the ballot (although its a 3T social issue), red state Arizona of all states was the only one to vote against the ban. However, in Arizona anyway (not sure of other states), anti-immigration attitudes are very high (as should be expected of a 4T), and all four anti-immigration ballot measures passed with over 70% of the vote.
- Exciting candidates in 2008. Although we still have unexciting candidates such as Vilsack in the race, early polls suggest a Hillary v. Giuliani or Hillary v. McCain race. Of those three, only McCain is not a Boomer. Also, as history has shown, the winning party of this election (Democrats) won't necessarily win two years later (1994 v. 1996, 1986 v. 1988, etc.)

If one or both of these candidates can energize lots of voters, including young voters, and foreign issues reign supreme (i.e. Iraq is still a mess, other problems are around) and/or if the economy goes downhill, people will head to the polls, and I think they will be pretty cohesive nationwide for one candidate or another, and as long as the President-elect is willing to make significant changes (probably mandated by election results if not already hinted to in the platform/during the campaign), the regeneracy will be upon us.

Originally Posted by AlexMnWi

I think this election has numerous indications that 2008 has a very strong potential to be a regeneracy election, for a few reasons:
- Voter turnout was high for a midterm election, and youth voting was also quite higher than normal, although still low compared to other generations.
- Decisive results, and nationwide trends. Democrats and certain liberal ballot measures won/passed where you wouldn't expect it. For the Senate, Democrats picked up seats in red states Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and Virginia. Democrats picked up governorships in red states Arkansas, Colorado, and Ohio. Democrats picked up House seats in red states Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. And of all the states that had a gay-marriage ban on the ballot (although its a 3T social issue), red state Arizona of all states was the only one to vote against the ban. However, in Arizona anyway (not sure of other states), anti-immigration attitudes are very high (as should be expected of a 4T), and all four anti-immigration ballot measures passed with over 70% of the vote.
- Exciting candidates in 2008. Although we still have unexciting candidates such as Vilsack in the race, early polls suggest a Hillary v. Giuliani or Hillary v. McCain race. Of those three, only McCain is not a Boomer. Also, as history has shown, the winning party of this election (Democrats) won't necessarily win two years later (1994 v. 1996, 1986 v. 1988, etc.)

If one or both of these candidates can energize lots of voters, including young voters, and foreign issues reign supreme (i.e. Iraq is still a mess, other problems are around) and/or if the economy goes downhill, people will head to the polls, and I think they will be pretty cohesive nationwide for one candidate or another, and as long as the President-elect is willing to make significant changes (probably mandated by election results if not already hinted to in the platform/during the campaign), the regeneracy will be upon us.

Alex! Good to see you! This is Sean (William Jennings Bryan).

The only thing I'd add to your analysis is that if the Dem's don't "get the message" of this election, there could be a Populist revolt against both parties in E2K8.

I've changed my mind, I'm now thinking we're still in the cascade phase of the 4T. The Baker Commission seems to be a final effort from the Silents to prevent a foreign policy disaster, the Dem Congressional leadership (Pelosi, Reid, etc.) is also mostly Silents.

My prediction for the next 2 years is that the White House will do what the Baker Commission reccomends, but it won't stop the vicious cycle of violence taking over Iraq. Iraq will collapse break apart and our soldiers will get stuck in the middle of it. It will be the public furor over the collpase of Iraq and resulting massive casulties to out troops that will send us into full 4T mode and will set the stage for the election a GC populist (or at least RUNS as a populist) Democratic president in '08.

Originally Posted by Andy '85

If the regeneracy has begun, this I feel may be the most attenuated 4th turning I've ever imagined. As some can tell, I'm awfully perplexed. What would we be expecting to truly mark the 4T when all these good feelings come flooding in all of a sudden? It certainly has a 1932 feeling to it, but what else could possibly happen from now?

Whatever, I'm looking forward to whatever is this saeculum's equivalent to the 1939 World Fair. Politics aren't my strong point anyway.

So, predictions on the starting year for the 1st turning?

I still don't think that 9/11 was the beginning of the 4T, but I think that sometime in 2003 after "Mission (not) Accomplished" is when it started. I was holding off on calling it, but I think it has started, circa 2003.

As for when the 1T will begin: Not soon. We have too many huge problems to face and we haven't got a clue about solutions. My guess: 2027 for the 1T start.

As for generations, this means that the Homelanders started arriving around mid-2000, and we should see the technoHippie/Prophet gen start showing up oh, 2024 or so.

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

Alex! Good to see you! This is Sean (William Jennings Bryan).

The only thing I'd add to your analysis is that if the Dem's don't "get the message" of this election, there could be a Populist revolt against both parties in E2K8.

Or a center-right, populist/pragmatist party that has the name of one of the existing parties. Dean's 50 State Strategy is the harbinger of this. Dean, I think, understands the generational environment, and might be correctly forging the links with X'rs and Millenials needed to carry out a survivable regeneracy policy. My own party is (as noted by others) is setting itself up for at least a generation in the political wilderness (note the return of Trent Lott, etc). Those who do not learn from defeat, etc...

A Democratic Party that fails in 2008 (at least a 50/50 shot) will give the coup de gras to the Silent establishment in the Democratic Party. It will pretty much finish off the DNC, as well. If my party fails to learn, stays a regional/tribal party,and simply capitalizes on Dem weakness to win in 2008, the results will be mortifyingly devastating for the party and the country. That will pave the way for a new Democratic Party post 2012-2016.

There will still be a center party, and a center-right party in the US. The names may change, though...

Originally Posted by Pink Splice

Or a center-right, populist/pragmatist party that has the name of one of the existing parties. Dean's 50 State Strategy is the harbinger of this. Dean, I think, understands the generational environment, and might be correctly forging the links with X'rs and Millenials needed to carry out a survivable regeneracy policy. My own party is (as noted by others) is setting itself up for at least a generation in the political wilderness (note the return of Trent Lott, etc). Those who do not learn from defeat, etc...

A Democratic Party that fails in 2008 (at least a 50/50 shot) will give the coup de gras to the Silent establishment in the Democratic Party. It will pretty much finish off the DNC, as well. If my party fails to learn, stays a regional/tribal party,and simply capitalizes on Dem weakness to win in 2008, the results will be mortifyingly devastating for the party and the country. That will pave the way for a new Democratic Party post 2012-2016.

There will still be a center party, and a center-right party in the US. The names may change, though...

I largely agree. And I commend your stamina with regards to the GOP (e.g., "my party"). I couldn't hold.

But as you know, the saecular cycle strongly suggests (but doesn't necessarily require) either 2008 or 2012 will be a 1968, 1932, 1896, 1860, 1828, 1776 type realignment (hell, 2004 even fit the bill statistically). Any later than 2012 would be truly extraordinary.