At the moment I observe in Australian society, we are in the later stages of the unravelling, probably where the United States was say in early part of this decade. We had nothing like 911 to really disrupt this late unravelling mood.

People not expect much from their political leaders and as long as they keep the status quo, house prices are rising and the economy is going along well. They have re-elected the state Labor party governments (where the political leaders are less divisive) by huge record breaking margins. Federally where John Howard interesting enough for an Silent has aligned himself with the Boomer anti-awakening side, has been re-elected in recent elections by comfortable but not recording breaking margins.

There is much rethoric, fire and brimstone from both Boomer camps, but really little concrete action. John Howard our PM is your typical unravelling adpative leader, a good American comparison is the Silent leaders in congress and people like Donald Rumsfeld and.

His general cautiousness works well, he made a very wise decision to send only as much troops to make a political statement that Australia is all the way behind GWB, but not enough to make any real political damage by things like significant casualties, while the more principled Boomers like Blair and GW Bush have sustained political damage by putting their asses out on the line.

I guess politically there might be a chance the Conservative parties might be voted out at the next federal election in 2007 and a Labor government come in with Kim Beazley as Prime Minister. While he is a Boomer (born 1948), he is a unknown quantity to me, I dunno if he is a soild Boomer like GW Bush is or has some Silent traits. Although Australia's political leadership is pretty much Boom dominated now, John Howard's generation are fast departing from public life. Despite Australia is like 3 or 4 years behind North America on the saeculum, the Silents only make up at best 30% of politicians in this country, most likely less and the Boomers are have a sizable majority, likewise this ratio is reflected in a lot of the institutions of this country, the courts are an expect ion.

Give another 3 or 4 years Australia will enter the 4T for real.

Dear Tristan,

Have the three recent terrorist attacks in Bali and Jakarta had any
effect on Australians? The attacks appear to have been directed at
Australian tourists, and have been compared to the 9/11 attacks.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Dear Tristan,

Have the three recent terrorist attacks in Bali and Jakarta had any
effect on Australians? The attacks appear to have been directed at
Australian tourists, and have been compared to the 9/11 attacks.

Sincerely,

John

They made a mood a little bit more jittery and boosted the position of the Coalition Federal Government, but that is about it.

i'd say they did more than that. they very much lit the fuse that led to the sydney cronulla riots a year ago. furthermore they've also created a very tense environment in which society is very sceptical of the muslim population, an attitude that can be seen very prominently in the media.

i think there is also a greater distrust of the indonesian state now, and everything they do is very closely analysed over here, with australians usually voicing opposition to any indonesian political policy now. visa versa the indonesians to us. (think about drug smuggling, how to deal with J.I leaders, west papua, west timor, the death penalty, tourism, muslim-christian relations)

and lastly, though not really related, i think its interesting that the rising friction with indonesia has coincided with a strengthening of ties with china. its just a curious point really as it demonstrates the shifting around of powers and allegiances in the east-asia region. furthermore any significant turning events that occur in china (i dont really know which one they're in) may have more of an impact in australia than previous ones have had.

and kevin rudd is now leader of the opposition, i think he can take seats off the liberals at the next election, but i think a win for the labor party is a big ask, there's just so much lost ground to reclaim.

Originally Posted by myk'87

> i'd say they did more than that. they very much lit the fuse that
> led to the sydney cronulla riots a year ago. furthermore they've
> also created a very tense environment in which society is very
> sceptical of the muslim population, an attitude that can be seen
> very prominently in the media.

> i think there is also a greater distrust of the indonesian state
> now, and everything they do is very closely analysed over here,
> with australians usually voicing opposition to any indonesian
> political policy now. visa versa the indonesians to us. (think
> about drug smuggling, how to deal with J.I leaders, west papua,
> west timor, the death penalty, tourism, muslim-christian
> relations)

> and lastly, though not really related, i think its interesting
> that the rising friction with indonesia has coincided with a
> strengthening of ties with china. its just a curious point really
> as it demonstrates the shifting around of powers and allegiances
> in the east-asia region. furthermore any significant turning
> events that occur in china (i dont really know which one they're
> in) may have more of an impact in australia than previous ones
> have had.

> and kevin rudd is now leader of the opposition, i think he can
> take seats off the liberals at the next election, but i think a
> win for the labor party is a big ask, there's just so much lost
> ground to reclaim.

Based on news reports I've read, this is a lot closer to what must be
happening than other comments I've read here. I've read stuff
recently that Jemaah Islamiyah has been "severely weakened," but
that's like saying that the al-Qaeda insurgency in Iraq has been
"severely weakened." Kudos to John Howard and to Australian security
forces for keeping Jemaah Islamiyah's terrorist attacks off of
Australian soil for this long.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Originally Posted by myk'87

i'd say they did more than that. they very much lit the fuse that led to the sydney cronulla riots a year ago. furthermore they've also created a very tense environment in which society is very sceptical of the muslim population, an attitude that can be seen very prominently in the media.

i think there is also a greater distrust of the indonesian state now, and everything they do is very closely analysed over here, with australians usually voicing opposition to any indonesian political policy now. visa versa the indonesians to us. (think about drug smuggling, how to deal with J.I leaders, west papua, west timor, the death penalty, tourism, muslim-christian relations)

and lastly, though not really related, i think its interesting that the rising friction with indonesia has coincided with a strengthening of ties with china. its just a curious point really as it demonstrates the shifting around of powers and allegiances in the east-asia region. furthermore any significant turning events that occur in china (i dont really know which one they're in) may have more of an impact in australia than previous ones have had.

and kevin rudd is now leader of the opposition, i think he can take seats off the liberals at the next election, but i think a win for the labor party is a big ask, there's just so much lost ground to reclaim.

Interesting thoughts, here is some additions of my own.

I think a Rudd led ALP will win votes off from progressive liberal party supporters, ex-Australian Democrat supporters and Green party supporters. Probably big swings to Labor in safe Labor and Liberal held seats in the inner city suburbs, very few marginal seats are in the inner suburbs, they are all out in the other suburbs and provincal cities, where the swing to Labor will be much less.

The Coalition could win the next election but see the Prime Minister John Howard defeated in his own electorate, which is a inner city increasingly marginal one.

What's your first impression of Bindi Irwin? Does she seem like a Hero or Artist to you?
She has bounced back strongly from her father's death. It could be an indication that Australia is 10 years behind us in its cycle.

i really despise the whole bindi irwin media circus, and most people would agree with me. but i don't really see it as an indicator that we are behind in the cycle, that sounds ridiculous to me, especially given the craziness surrounding janet jacksons nipple in the USA only a couple of years ago.

i find it hard to explain the bindi phenomenon, it was 100% purely invented by the media. why? i don't know, tv ratings, magazine sales or (in some weird way) the constant desire to seek some sort of validation from america, seeing as steve irwin was one of australias most recognisable faces abroad. possibly someone in the background has lost a considerable amount of potential financial revenue through the death of steve and is trying to compensate desperately (its cynical i know but not impossible).

but if you open up any newspaper or talk to people on the street, everyone is just sick of it and also quite concerned about the obvious exploitation going on. no one is really buying it and everyone can see it for the fabrication it really is. think paris hilton, present-day tom cruise, or prince william's girlfriend kate middleton(sp?). to me its the same thing, someone who acquired the status of celebrity without ever gaining popularity (by which i mean real popularity, fame and acclaimation amongst the people) but instead via the media's need for more fuel for the celebrity glitz machine.

now regarding where australia is in a cycle, let me put it this way. we're already involved considerably in the war on terror and have felt the consequences with increased suspicion and paranoia back at home.

if a deepening of the american crisis were to occur via some outside source, such as war with iran for example or any attack on america, i would think australia would get caught up in it pretty quickly, plunging us all into the same crisis. the same would apply to the UK definately and possibly continental europe and canada, depending on the severity of the issue. regardless there would be a pretty clear allignment of cycles similar to WW2

if it was a deepening crisis developed from within the USA, such as some 21st century version of a civil war, then i wouldnt think any other countries would feel they would want to get involved and then the crisis is yours to keep ...and we would have to find something else to do.

regardless i dont really buy into the idea that we're behind you anyway. any differences between our societies that you suggest i imagine would be purely cultural and have nothing to do with the theory.

Climate change has become a big issue here, because we have gone through an expectional drought. Australia usually has an erratic climate (rather like New Mexico). However the last several years have been the direst in recorded history, some are calling it the 1 in 1000 year drought. Water storages are at record low levels and some are nearly dry. Many places have been on water restrictions for a long time.

Some say the climate has changed, gotten warmer, drier and blaming greenhouse emissions for it.

I just decided to post my generations of post-war Australian prime ministers, the pre-war ones will have to wait for another time.

Prophet: Curtin 41-45, Chifley 45-49
Nomad: Menzies 39-41, 49-67
Hero: Holt 66-68, Gorton 68-71, McMahon 71-72, Whitlam 72-75
Artist: Fraser 75-83, Hawke 83-91, Keating 91-96, Howard 96-

We had not had any Boomers as Prime Minister yet, Keating being a 44 cohort shows a few Boomer traits although.

Originally Posted by Tristan

I just decided to post my generations of post-war Australian prime ministers, the pre-war ones will have to wait for another time.

Prophet: Curtin 41-45, Chifley 45-49
Nomad: Menzies 39-41, 49-67
Hero: Holt 66-68, Gorton 68-71, McMahon 71-72, Whitlam 72-75
Artist: Fraser 75-83, Hawke 83-91, Keating 91-96, Howard 96-

We had not had any Boomers as Prime Minister yet, Keating being a 44 cohort shows a few Boomer traits although.

Doesn't it look like Rudd is going to win? Labor has a big lead I think. Thus won't he be Australia's first Boomer PM?

(Britain has been run by Prophets since 1997 and the US since 1992, though Canada only since the 2006 election)

Originally Posted by Tristan

Climate change has become a big issue here, because we have gone through an expectional drought. Australia usually has an erratic climate (rather like New Mexico). However the last several years have been the direst in recorded history, some are calling it the 1 in 1000 year drought. Water storages are at record low levels and some are nearly dry. Many places have been on water restrictions for a long time.

Some say the climate has changed, gotten warmer, drier and blaming greenhouse emissions for it.

Do you think the drought is your guys' 4T catalyst?

Originally Posted by Odin

Do you think the drought is your guys' 4T catalyst?

Not Sure, ask me in 20-25 years.

Originally Posted by 1990

Doesn't it look like Rudd is going to win? Labor has a big lead I think. Thus won't he be Australia's first Boomer PM?

(Britain has been run by Prophets since 1997 and the US since 1992, though Canada only since the 2006 election)

If he wins he will be the first Boomer Prime Minister, I would estimate the odds of him winning the forthcoming election at around 1:2

Australia has gone through a very bad drought, as bad as the federation drought at the start of the 20th century. It has gone to bad that irrigators in Australia's fruit and vegetable basket of the Murray-Darling region will face no water allocations unless it rains heavily in the next few years, forcing fruit and vegetable prices to soar through the roof. We can avoid this from happen by relaxing our strict quarantine laws (which operate as a form of protection against cheap foreign imports) to allow imports of fruits and vegetables.

Many are saying global warming is causing the climate to change, i.e getting more drier. I would beg to disagree since Europeans have only been on this continent for just over 2 centuries. Australia's climate is naturally changing between wetter and drier periods. We are likely entered a drier period. Our major water storages were designed during a wetter phase during mid 20th century.

I see the current drought as a political problem, we have been through a lot of bad droughts before, this is no different. The solution is simple, namely market based pricing for water to encourage users to use less water and be more efficient for using water. If we had market based pricing for water we would not be in this situation by now. Urban areas would be recycling their water, not having to introduce water restrictions and only considering expensive desalination as a last resort. Irrigation would be much more efficient and farmers would adapt to the changes, we probably not be growing irrigated rice and cotton in the semi-arid Murray-Darling basin.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/a...788692898.html

This sums up the late 3T mood currently occurring in Australia. It is not going
to be too far until the 4T starts here, within the next 3 years.

I've been doing some numbers for the Australian Federal Parliament and it is broken down into the following.

Silent 20%
Boomer 64%
X'er 16%

That is just for the lower house elected in 2003, the senate would not be that much different. The Silents are going to be down to just 15-16% after the next election. I guess the figures are much the same in the state sphere. There are few Silent generation cabinet ministers nowadays, still a few in the Howard government, but the majority of the cabinet are Boomers (with a few x'ers).

For the last 31 1/2 years all the Prime Ministers of Australia (there only been four Fraser, Hawke, Keating and Howard) have been Silent Peers have had the office of Prime Minister. That is a generational record for high offices of Australian politics (including the state premierships). That is comparable to the 32 year hold on the office of the President of the USA the GI's had.

I am listening to a radio interview with former pollster Sol Lebovic and social researcher Hugh Mackay.

They talked about people recently becoming suddenly interested in outer world issues like the detention of David Hicks by American authorities, people wanted to bring David Hicks home, The recent workchoices legislation, which has deregulated hiring and firing laws, along with wages and conditions and also global warming/climate change, because we have gone through a very bad drought with water crises in every mainland capital city and had bush fires burning for three months instead of three weeks.

I feel the mood is changing heading towards a stage when the of fourth turning, will start soon. When the generational lineup will at the right stage from around 2008-2010, anything will start the Fourth Turning here. Here in Australia despite the last cohort of the Silent peers being around 1946, their presence in institutions is less than it is in America, they are still around, but their presence is fast fading.

Is Australia in the jittery tail end of the Unraveling?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Is Australia in the jittery tail end of the Unraveling?

Yes Indeed Tim

Comment on this if you will.

Public backs gay marriage
Article from: The Courier-Mail

Martin Philip

June 21, 2007 12:00am

GAY marriage and same-sex partnerships are no longer taboos to most Australians, with a new poll finding 57 per cent of the public backs same-sex weddings.

A Galaxy poll commissioned for advocacy group GetUp! also showed 71 per cent of Australians agree that same-sex partners should have the same legal rights as de-facto heterosexual couples.

Australians have made it clear that they oppose government discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, said GetUp! Executive Director Brett Solomon.

"We are far from the days when granting rights to same-sex couples was political suicide instead, it is now electoral necessity," he said.

"Australians don't want their gay friends and family to feel like second-class citizens. Why is it that when Australians favour equal rights for same sex couples by more than a 3-to-1 margin, neither major party will give it to them?"

The poll found support for equal rights for gay couples was widespread, with majorities of all demographics surveyed in favour.

Equal rights for same-sex couples are supported by a greater than 2-1 margin, even among Coalition voters (63 per cent agree, 31 per cent disagree).

Prime Minister John Howard today said he would examine a new report on homosexual rights but has ruled out legalising same-sex marriage.

A report by the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission (HREOC) on entitlements for same sex couples is expected to be tabled in parliament today.

"Let's have a look at the report before we start making any commitments," Mr Howard told Sky News.

"We are not in favour of discrimination but of course our views on the nature of marriage in our community are very well known and they won't be changing.

"There's no possibility of our attitude in relation to gay marriage changing.

"In relation to other issues we certainly aren't a government that supports discrimination."

Well the federal election is on Saturday and the opinion polls are pointing to a big Labor win, I predict Labor will win between 83 and 90 seats out of 150 in the lower house. That is a big swing and an extra 23-30 seats to Labor.

There has a lot of opposition to Federal conservative government's workchoices legislation, seen by many as undermining workers conditions. That explains some of the mood for change, but I also feel the Labor party has an electable opposition leader in Kevin Rudd and Prime Minister John Howard has overstayed his welcome among the voters, he has been Prime Minister since 1996.

Also there is the thing that since the 1980's Australia's electoral landscape has favored the Labor party which moved to the center politically during the 1970's and 1980's and Conservative Parties have not recovered from that, Australia has nothing like the Christian Right which sustains the Republican party in the USA.

I support John Howard and I oppose gay marriage. I am a monarchist and a faithful Catholic.

Originally Posted by sean '90

I support John Howard and I oppose gay marriage. I am a monarchist and a faithful Catholic.

Wow, If I was an American, I would support the Republican system of government, because I believe it had served America well, ain't broke don't fix it approach.