Originally Posted by Tristan

Wow, If I was an American, I would support the Republican system of government, because I believe it had served America well, ain't broke don't fix it approach.

The same applies to all monarchies that have existed. I am NOT some evil neo-con imperialist! Btw, I'll pay for your escape from the house of the evil Dick Cheney.

I hope Howard gets his rear end kicked. He sucks up to the neo-cons and isn't really a friend of the environment.

Originally Posted by Odin

I hope Howard gets his rear end kicked. He sucks up to the neo-cons and isn't really a friend of the environment.

Odin he did. Kevin Rudd is now Australia's Prime Minister, the first Boomer peer in the post too.

Tristan, what is the take over in Australia about the election? My sister is married to an Aussie and lived in the Sydney area for about 7 years in the 90s. There is a lot of rejoicing in that household right now -- they never cared much for Howard.

Here is what MSN has to say.

Generational shift

The change from Howard to Rudd also marks a generational shift for Australia.

Rudd, a 50-year-old former diplomat who speaks fluent Chinese, urged voters to support him because Howard, 68, was out of touch with modern Australia and ill-equipped to deal with new-age issues such as climate change.

Howard campaigned on his economic management, arguing that his government was mostly responsible for 17 years of unbroken growth, fueled by China's and India's hunger for Australia's coal and other minerals, and that Rudd could not be trusted to maintain prosperous times.

Labor has been out of power for more than a decade, and few in Rudd's team _ including him _ has any government experience at federal level. His team includes a former rock star _ Midnight Oil singer Peter Garrett _ a television journalist and former union officials.

But analysts say his foreign policy credentials are impeccable, and that he has shown discipline and political skill since his election as Labor leader 11 months ago.

Rudd's election as Labor leader marked the start of Howard's decline in opinion polls, from which he never recovered.

Howard's four straight election victories since 1996 made him one of Australia's most successful politicians. He refused to stand down before this election _ even after being urged to do by some party colleagues.

Bloody Hell, I'm now older than the new Prime Minister.

George Worthless Bush has surely become unpopular in Australia; as one of his best friends politically, Howard has to have endured some blowback from President Bush's unpopularity.

Anything that reeks of Dubya has to be very unpopular in a free country.

Well, at the very least Rudd has essentially promised not to hold another referendum on a republic for his first term, so the monarchy seems safe for at least the rest of the decade.

Labor winning was no surprise. Howard's loss in his own constituency was particularly symbolic - not only is he no longer PM, he's no longer an MP at all. Rudd will be the first Boomer PM, and the first Labor PM since I was very little. Howard's been around forever, but in light of the rebuke from his own constituents, he's looking a bit like an Australian Hoover. Could Rudd be the GC, or is Australia still 3T?

Originally Posted by 1990

Could Rudd be the GC, or is Australia still 3T?

That's what I'm trying to figure out. Is the nasty drought they've been having down there catalyst material? Where's Tristan when you need him?

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Tristan, what is the take over in Australia about the election? My sister is married to an Aussie and lived in the Sydney area for about 7 years in the 90s. There is a lot of rejoicing in that household right now -- they never cared much for Howard.

The Wonkette, I would say the reaction is subuded, then again the people I know are apolitical or not diposed favorable towards the Labor party. Indeed the people who never liked Howard are rejocing, not just his government is gone, but he has been defeated in his own electorate, which has been becoming more marginal through redistrubtions and demographic changes for a long time.

Originally Posted by 1990

Labor winning was no surprise. Howard's loss in his own constituency was particularly symbolic - not only is he no longer PM, he's no longer an MP at all. Rudd will be the first Boomer PM, and the first Labor PM since I was very little. Howard's been around forever, but in light of the rebuke from his own constituents, he's looking a bit like an Australian Hoover. Could Rudd be the GC, or is Australia still 3T?

Australia is still in a 3T, although quite late into it although. I am not sure how the new government will react to the coming of the 4T. Rudd is the first Boomer Peer Prime Minister of Australia and we had Silent peers in the PM's office since 1975, some 32 years. It will be a change for sure.

Australia has among the highest relative to income of house prices in the world, along with Britain, Ireland and New Zealand.

This is causing lots of X'ers being locked out of ever owning their own home, The X'ers in Australia will be the first generation to actually have a decline in the proportion of their generation in owning their own home.

Also Australia's Housing Market is grossly overvalued across the nation, not just in certain areas, an collapse in house prices is almost certainly going to trigger an recession.


Affordability stress to continue

January 04, 2008 02:10pm


THE pressures impacting on housing affordability, especially for first home buyers, are likely to worsen in 2008, the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) warns.

Rising interest rates, population growth and price increases caused by a shortfall in the supply of new homes are contributing to a 22-year low in affordability.

As a result many home buyers are considering medium and higher density housing as more affordable options, institute president Noel Dyett said in a statement.

"In 2008, the main challenges facing the real estate market will be low home loan affordability, the possibility of more interest rate rises, the ongoing fallout from the US sub-prime problems, and an extremely tight rental market driving rents up,'' he said.

During 2007 the real estate market was split between established home owners, who enjoyed a "vintage'' year, and new entrants who experienced a "less fortunate'' time.

The institutes's outlook for 2008 suggests house prices will continue to rise in all states except NSW, where the market is more subdued, and Western Australia, where activity has settled.

The Australian weighted average median house price was $442,758 (USD 389,892) in the September quarter 2007, the REIA said.

Sydney had the highest median price at $538,400 (USD 474,115) followed by Perth ($455,000/USD 400,673), Melbourne ($431,000/ USD 379,539), Canberra ($425,000 / USD 374255), Darwin ($400,000 / USD 352,240), Brisbane ($383,500 / USD 337,710), Adelaide ($320,000 / USD 281,792 ) and Hobart ($317,000 / USD 279,150).

"Well-located property, close to employment opportunities and infrastructure will continue to perform well,'' the outlook says.

"The upward movement in prices for other dwellings suggests that many home buyers are considering medium and higher density housing as more affordable options in a market where affordability is very low.

"It is likely that this sector will experience ongoing price growth during 2008.''

The institute says price rises are being driven by population growth, demand for newer and more environmentally-sustainable housing in areas close to employment and essential services, and a shortfall in the supply of new dwellings.

The transfer of infrastructure costs into the pricing of new homes was also pushing up prices of established homes.

The institute says dwelling approvals are not keeping pace with the demand for additional housing stock.

"Approvals fell by 2.8 per cent in October 2007 and the November interest rate rise is likely to have a further negative effect on approvals,'' it said.

"The much-needed upturn in building approvals will not occur while there is uncertainty around interest rate rises, reducing the demand for housing finance and while the construction sector is constrained by skills and labour shortages.''

The institute says sales activity has fallen steadily for the past five years.

In 2006-07 there were 467,737 sales across the country - down nearly 16 per cent on volumes four years earlier.

The institute says the reduction in sales activity and declining affordability prompted many home owners to re-invest in their own properties.

Finance for alterations and additions rose steadily during 2007 driving much of the investment in housing nationwide.

"The prospect of higher interest rates will potentially see this continue into 2008 with an accompanying tightening of sales volume, as people become more resistant to selling,'' the REIA said.

First home buyer numbers have fallen below the long-term average and the institute says the outlook does not look positive.

"The federal government's proposed policy solutions may offer some relief in the medium to long term but first home buyers can expect more of the same - challenges to secure a deposit to buy a home, and challenges in meeting monthly loan repayments,'' it said.

Australia On Verge Of Recession

The Australian is reporting Australia 'on verge of recession'.

THE economy is headed for recession next year, with a 50 per cent plunge in share values and a double-digit drop in house prices - that's what one analyst says.

Morgan Stanley's chief market strategist Gerard Minack introduced a brief to clients last week saying: "I'm bearish - really bearish."

The problem is not that the market is overvalued, relative to earnings, but rather that earnings are themselves inflated and headed for a fall. Based on profit figures back to 1970, earnings are 44 per cent above their long-term trend. In the three recessions since then, real earnings per share fell by between 36 and 65 per cent from peak to trough.

"You've got to argue that earnings do revert to their mean. On almost every measure we've got for earnings, be it profit share of GDP, return on assets or margins, it looks unsustainable," he says.

Earnings have been inflated by spendthrift households running down their savings. While the Reserve Bank has argued that fears about housing debt are without foundation because household balance sheets are strong, Minack says the picture looks a lot worse when you look instead at household cash flow.

The latest annual national accounts show the household sector remains cashflow negative, with the deficit of 3.75 per cent of GDP accounting for half the current - account deficit. Besides, he says, household balance sheets also looked fantastic in Japan in 1990, before its lost a decade of economic growth.

Minack is not persuaded by the proposition that Australia's housing market is somehow immune from the excesses of the US. Australians have more leverage, are as reliant upon equity extraction and base their household balance sheet on a housing stock that is far more expensive than their US equivalents.

"People miss the point that we're hugely wrapped up in the global credit crunch because we are one of the world's largest issuers of capital, with the most over-priced finance sector in the developed world and a rickety housing sector.

"People think we're Teflon coated because of links to China. I don't think that's true."

http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...53-462,00.html

Originally Posted by cbailey

http://www.news.com.au/business/stor...53-462,00.html

I do not believe Australia is currently in a recession, far from it. States like
Western Australia and Queensland (our version of the Sun Belt) are booming. Unemployment is at lows not seen since the 1970's.

However despite the apparent economic prosperity people are struggling with increasing petrol prices and real estate prices relative to Incomes similar to California everywhere in the country. Which among many things, jacked up rents because of the flood of people unable to afford to buy a home, increasing demand for rental properties.

Australia is less than 1 1/2 years away from reaching the same level of income spent on debt interest which triggered the last recession. The recession will come and it will be pretty nasty.

If what has happened in California economically recently is any guide an forthcoming recession in Australia will be pretty nasty.

It is lucky we never had the amount of sub-prime mortgages in Australia which were in the California market.

Originally Posted by Tristan

If what has happened in California economically recently is any guide an forthcoming recession in Australia will be pretty nasty.

It is lucky we never had the amount of sub-prime mortgages in Australia which were in the California market.

Back in the early 1990s, I understood from my sister and her husband (who were living near Sydney at the time) that you had to have a huge down payment to buy in Australia (something like 50 percent). Is that still the case?

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Back in the early 1990s, I understood from my sister and her husband (who were living near Sydney at the time) that you had to have a huge down payment to buy in Australia (something like 50 percent). Is that still the case?

Not these days, Australia's financial system was deregulated in the 1980's. Nowadays you can get zero deposit home loans.

In the Antipodes, it's not raining men

Originally Posted by BBC

An analysis of new census figures has shown that Australia is suffering from an unprecedented "man drought".
The statistics have revealed that there are almost 100,000 more females than males in Australia.



The problem is worse in the coastal cities, where women have moved seeking better jobs and lifestyles, while many men have gone overseas.

Thirty years ago Australia was with flush with men thanks to immigration policies that favoured males.

That position has been reversed because thousands of Australian men in their 20s and early 30s have gone overseas either to travel or to work.

It has caused a gender imbalance that is having far-reaching implications.



Town and country

Major cities in Australia now have concentrated groups of unattached women, along with dwindling numbers of the opposite sex.

...
But the situation outside of the larger towns and cities is very different.


Vast numbers of women have abandoned the countryside seeking better jobs or education in metropolitan areas. They have left behind communities overloaded with younger males.


In the town of Glenden in the northern state of Queensland there is one single female for every 23 men.

I think there is a monsoon of males in South & East Asia.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

In the Antipodes, it's not raining men



I think there is a monsoon of males in South & East Asia.

How come I have not heard this in the news before, I do follow the Australia media you know.

Given there are like 1 million Australians abroad (imagine if there were 14 million Americans living abroad), such an imbalance in the larger towns and cities of Australia would not be so surprising.

These Australians abroad are generally quite highly qualified or skilled, Australia needs to import highly qualified and skilled migrants to replace those people.

Women's magazines rant on about a man drought, but I usually do not take such things seriously.

Women's magazines have a vested interest in convincing women that there is a man shortage. It goes like this -

Women's magazines are written cover to cover by the advertising department. One of the greatest category of products advertised is cosmetics, beauty products, diets, and other things marketed as making women look (and feel, as the ads claim) more beautiful and hence, in a better position to attract men. If women feel they can attract men just as they are, or with products from the local discount store, that cuts into the profits of the advertisers. But if they can convince women that it's a buyer's market and they need to take extraordinary measures or be left on the shelf (similarities to the current real estate market duly noted), women will be scared into buying more and fancier products.

It's not that simple or that conscious, of course. Though in some boardrooms, it may be. And it's given credence by the fact that young urban women actually do, for the most part, move in heavily female environments, where the males they see are either Mister Big, the mailroom boy, or men totally outside their notice. Where are the men? By and large, working in male-heavy environments, whistling at the young women as they walk by, and feeling that said young women are way out of their reach. The exceptions being workplaces in transition, or why hospital shows like Grey's Anatomy are such soap operas.

Pat, amateur demographer and people-watcher since 1952.

I like the comparison to a day: 1T is morning, 2T is afternoon, 3T is evening, and 4T is night.

I would compare the jittery, tail end of an Unraveling to sunset. In that case, the sun is setting in Australia.

It is twilight in the U.S.A.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

I like the comparison to a day: 1T is morning, 2T is afternoon, 3T is evening, and 4T is night.

I would compare the jittery, tail end of an Unraveling to sunset. In that case, the sun is setting in Australia.

It is twilight in the U.S.A.

Australia is at the very end of a 3T, Our Silents have less influence over our institutions than America's. The only institution they control with power is the Superior level courts, even then they are a lot weaker in powers than US superior courts are.

I would only give it an another couple of years before the 4T starts here.

the aussie dollar dropped huge this week, now its half the euro.

everyone's so jittery about money right now, which is funny cos an entire generation of working australians have known nothing but a booming economy and low unemployment. also the word is we're somewhat better placed than most countries in the event of a global recession (or depression...) cos we don't have a government debt and do have some regulations in place. im no economist though so don't quote me on that. of course we'll still be hit hard though. travelling is gonna slow down quite abit, and from that i suspect possibly a more communal sentiment to grow (a poorer economy curtails individualistc pursuits).

everyone is focused on the american election right now, as if our fate is dependent on it, and it probably is, due to the closer ties we've fostered in the past decade (the coalition of the wiling, the free trade agreement).

politically here's how i call it. Rudd is going nowhere fast and i dont see a happy ending for his prime-ministership (too much chattering, too little action). I DO however see Julia Gillard as the big up and comer and possibly the prime candidate for a GC role. hell, she's already clocked up a few weeks of acting PM . most importantly though she seems to be a rationalist and a uniter and i can see those on the right crossing the aisle.

the liberals are rebuilding. they'll most likely collect more states in the coming years (presuming they eventually do find some candidates who aren't weirdos). they ultimately seem like they wanna hang in there till the public turns against labor for a bad economic situation. could be a long few years for them though.

the crisis almost certainly has to be a depression and a foreign war. australians just don't do civil disorder and revolutions. but i guess you never know (what do you think tristan?). maybe we'll be mercenaries for other countries?

another scenario i considered would be if Rudd's emissions-trading scheme was introduced, resulting in all our industries moving offshore to the cheaper and less-restrictive china market, thus severely exacerbating an already perilous economic situation. no way he would do it now though.

also it's always been interesting how the silents had a much better run here than in america. and the two most successful (bob hawke and john howard) we're seen as real heroes of the ordinary folk at their height.

i was reading up on theodore roosevelt, and adaptive president, who seemed also in that sort of mold.

Originally Posted by myk'87

also it's always been interesting how the silents had a much better run here than in america. and the two most successful (bob hawke and john howard) we're seen as real heroes of the ordinary folk at their height.

i was reading up on theodore roosevelt, and adaptive president, who seemed also in that sort of mold.

I'm envious. If I understand this correctly, Australia has had a better Unraveling than the USA.