Originally Posted by Semo '75

The research that I'm referring to suggests that the amount of soot is a contributing factor to increased localized temperatures, which is more relevant to the melting ice than, say, the average global temperature.

Do you have a link? I occasionally do local whale watch trips, and the freighters one sees in local waters at least seem to be scrubber equipped. In the movie "Titanic," they show some magnificent CGI images of the old ships throwing lots and lots of soot into the air. Modern ships, not so much.

Yah, I'm a forest guy, but if you tell me there are apt to be a lot of trees, I could change my mind.

Originally Posted by Semo '75

If the current trend continues, enough of the arctic ice will be cleared each year to allow the establishment of new trade routes through the newly formed arctic passage. These trade routes will be shorter than existing trade routes, which means that less fuel will be used. As a result, goods will be cheaper and greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced.

Sounds pretty good, right? As the arctic sea ice melts, you will almost certainly hear this argument as corporations negotiate passage through the Arctic Ocean, and it's a fairly persuasive argument.

The problem is that NASA's Goddard Space Science Center has done research that indicates that soot has a significant and measurable impact on the melting of land ice in the arctic. Under normal circumstances, the snow that falls during the other months of the year creates a cover over the ice that reflects solar energy. But soot from all around the world (most of which is from human sources, although a significant amount is from natural sources) ends up mixing with the snow that falls, which reduces the snow's reflectivity. This increases temperatures, which melts the snow more quickly and exposes the darker ice and land underneath, which increases temperatures further, which melts the ice, which exposes the darker land underneath, and so on. In short, soot creates a feedback loop which melts the ice more quickly. Although the effect of soot on sea ice wasn't studied, the basic mechanism would be the same, so it's almost certain that the effect would be pretty much the same.

Basically, what the scientists discovered is that, pound for pound, soot is about three times more effective at melting ice than greenhouse gases. If we allow trade routes through the arctic, then we could conceivably create a lot of soot in an area where we don't need it. If a passage through the arctic remains open as late as spring when the snow falls most relevant to the summer melt take place, then the arctic icepack could (and almost certainly would) melt even faster even though our carbon emissions would be reduced.

I would point out that aircraft already traverse the polar region. Perhaps we don't have to wait for ships to traverse the arctic for things like this to matter.

It is quite likely that effects from soot are far more important than undersea volcanos. Once again, it comes down to where the impact is made. Soot from ships or planes is directly applied to the atmosphere, above the ice, where it contributes a forcing in and of itself, just like greenhouse gases do. And just like greenhouse forcings, soot or aerosol forcings are much stronger than any conceivable effect undersea volcanos can exert. And the reason is the same. All that water serves as a thick blanket damping out any possible impact. (And that goes for chemical and particulate effects as well as thermal).

On the other hand, soot can settle on the ice, darkening it and increasing albedo. Aerosols can block sunlight and catalyze cloud cover, which affects the radiative balance. These are direct, concentrated effects not diluted through massive, smothering layers of water.

The only reason for even considering volcanos was, as the Rani pointed out, the fact they they are hot and hot water can melt ice.

The idea that undersea volcanoes could be melting the ice is extremely far-fetched, despite the superficial plausibility of the the idea. The effect of soot, although it seems much more trivial, is actually a much more reasonable factor to consider as a cause of melting than undersea volcanos.

Originally Posted by Semo '75

....as I've said before, the position you've attributed to me, which is that volcanic activity directly melted large quantities of arctic sea ice, was never my position. I believed that it wasn't The Rani's position either, but I was apparently wrong on that point.

Originally Posted by Rani

No, you weren't wrong.

Originally Posted by Justin 77

Strictly speaking, the comment wasn't about their contribution to warming; rather Rani noted that the supposedly-Global-Warming-caused thaw of the polar icecap all was sort of concentrated in one area -- and that maybe the proximate cause of that particular event was something a bit less far-fetched. You know, like an increase in thermal activity right under the spot that melted?

Was Justin misrepresenting your position?

Originally Posted by The Rani

Since you didn't provide a link, I'm not sure what the context was, but other than the "far-fetched" part, which I think was Justin's own editorializing, that looks about right.

I thought the context was clear. Semo said he wasn't talking about direct heating effects and thought you were not either, but then said that he was apparently wrong; you were talking about direct heating effects.

You say he wasn't wrong; you were not talking about direct heating effects.

Justin says you were talking about direct heating effects.

So I asked you if Justin got it wrong because there is a contradiction here.

You say he didn't. ???

I'm confused.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVv597m848s

While I would continue to state that the motivation of many of those with ecological concerns is not religious, here we have one more example of those whose values are primarily religious applying religious values to the problem.

Pope pledges climate change fight. For discussion purposes...

While on board a flight carrying him to Australia for a visit that began today, Benedict told reporters that there is a need "to wake up consciences'' on climate change as part of ''our responsibilities toward Creation.''

"We have to give impulse to rediscovering our responsibility and to finding an ethical way to change our way of life," the world's Roman Catholic leader said.

In one respect, global warming might be full of stings:

(from the new York Times)

BARCELONA, Spain — Blue patrol boats crisscross the swimming areas of beaches here with their huge nets skimming the water’s surface. The yellow flags that urge caution and the red flags that prohibit swimming because of risky currents are sometimes topped now with blue ones warning of a new danger: swarms of jellyfish.


Jellyfish at the Institute of Marine Sciences in Barcelona, Spain. Jellyfish have recently been turning up in places where they once were rarely seen, scientists say.

In a period of hours during a day a couple of weeks ago, 300 people on Barcelona’s bustling beaches were treated for stings, and 11 were taken to hospitals.

From Spain to New York, to Australia, Japan and Hawaii, jellyfish are becoming more numerous and more widespread, and they are showing up in places where they have rarely been seen before, scientists say. The faceless marauders are stinging children blithely bathing on summer vacations, forcing beaches to close and clogging fishing nets.

But while jellyfish invasions are a nuisance to tourists and a hardship to fishermen, for scientists they are a source of more profound alarm, a signal of the declining health of the world’s oceans.

“These jellyfish near shore are a message the sea is sending us saying, ‘Look how badly you are treating me,’ ” said Dr. Josep-María Gili, a leading jellyfish expert, who has studied them at the Institute of Marine Sciences of the Spanish National Research Council in Barcelona for more than 20 years.

The explosion of jellyfish populations, scientists say, reflects a combination of severe overfishing of natural predators, like tuna, sharks and swordfish; rising sea temperatures caused in part by global warming; and pollution that has depleted oxygen levels in coastal shallows.

CNN reports that Asia pollution may boost U.S. temperatures.

Nothing absurdly new in this, but the latest report suggests changing the focus a bit from CO2 (which comes out of the atmosphere only very slowly) to other climate changing pollutants that fall out of the atmosphere much quicker, but are still kicked out in large quantities and might be easier to control.

The report seems to shift focus away from coal burning power plants in the US, to cars and Asia. This makes me wonder if political agendas are involved, but who knows?

glacials and interglacials

Six Degrees Our Future On A Hotter Planet by Mark Lynas

The author states that by the end of this century the planet will warm heat up between 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.6 to 10.4 degrees F).

He indicates that each degree warmer is a threshhold for more drastic climate change.

The author states that his book is based on articles by climatologists that were published in scientific journals.

The chapter titles are as follows:

Introduction

One Degree

Two Degrees

Three Degrees

Four Degrees

Five Degrees

Six Degrees

Choosing Our Future

Global dimming

In the One Degree chapter the author discussed hurricane formation. Noted how unusual Hurricane Catarina and Hurricane Vince were, due to location of formation and where they made landfall.

One Degree chapter:

"...a paper published in July 2007 by Spanish and German climatologists, looking at simulated storms in a computer model, suggests that the whole of the Mediterranean may soon come into the firing line as sea temperatures climb to levels able to spark off tropical cyclones-in a region that has never seen them before. The greatest number of virtual cyclones appears in the hottest part of the Mediterranean, between Italy and Libya, and once formed, the powerful storms last for a week or more. One computer generated hurricane formed in the eastern part of the Mediterranean, and then wandered westward all the way to the southern coast of France...Another storm formed a tight, symmetrical eye of torrential rain, just as real tropical cyclones do...Once placid coastlines from Spain to Cyprus could be at risk of landfalling hurricanes in a globally warmed future..."

One Degree chapter:

Much of this chapter concerns the melting of the Arctic. The sea ice has been disappearing, causing a feedback system that encourages further melting. Ice reflects sun light much more than water, so the more water exposed, the more heat is absorbed.

The permafrost is melting in Siberia and Alaska.

If a reduced ice cap should persist, will Actic wildlife be reduced to remnant populations? Or will there be a mass extinction of this wildlife? Will the sea ice disappear entirely? Will Iceland and Greenland become ice free?

Also, the permafrost is melting in the Alps; no longer glued into place by ice, there have been rock falls.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

One Degree chapter:

"...a paper published in July 2007 by Spanish and German climatologists, looking at simulated storms in a computer model, suggests that the whole of the Mediterranean may soon come into the firing line as sea temperatures climb to levels able to spark off tropical cyclones-in a region that has never seen them before. The greatest number of virtual cyclones appears in the hottest part of the Mediterranean, between Italy and Libya, and once formed, the powerful storms last for a week or more. One computer generated hurricane formed in the eastern part of the Mediterranean, and then wandered westward all the way to the southern coast of France...Another storm formed a tight, symmetrical eye of torrential rain, just as real tropical cyclones do...Once placid coastlines from Spain to Cyprus could be at risk of landfalling hurricanes in a globally warmed future..."

Somehow I don't think the Athenian Acropolis could hold up against the 140 to 150 mph sustained winds of a Category 4 monster.

Warmed world compared to Eemian interglacial.

One Degree chapter:

Noted that corals are "bleaching" (dying), apparently correlated with a rise in the temperature at shallow depths.

Shrinking of mountain glaciers. This is happening on different continents. These glaciers and snow pack are important sources of water ("water towers") for a number of countries. Will this result in Water Wars?

Predicts a disaster on a far larger scale than the Dust Bowl. Anticipated spread of desert in western North America, as far east as Nebraska, and stretching north into Canada.

The author stated that a 1 degree rise is probably unavoidable at this point, due to the greenhouse gases already released. With a 1 degree scenario there would be wrenching change, but he thinks that civilization could survive, and even save a substantial amount of biodiversity. To avoid a 2 degree scenario there would have to be a concerted effort by the year 2015.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

The author stated that a 1 degree rise is probably unavoidable at this point, due to the greenhouse gases already released. With a 1 degree scenario there would be wrenching change, but he thinks that civilization could survive, and even save a substantial amount of biodiversity. To avoid a 2 degree scenario there would have to be a concerted effort by the year 2015.

That is my impression as well. The way the economy is going, I doubt the political will can be focused to prevent the 2 degree scenario. Problem is, there are some slippery slopes just downhill. If one goes 2 degrees, it will be very very difficult to avoid going further. There is a lot of methane frozen in the tundra of Siberia, Alaska and the Canadian north.

Thus, I anticipate that the next generation of prophets are going to be very very mad at the generations that came before them. A true global scale ecological disaster is apt to make the old divide between the Boomers and the GIs seem tame.

Take careful notes as the crisis proceeds. Remember how it was that we let it happen. The Green Generation is going to ask. Repeatedly. Often. Loudly.

A routine Climate changing 'faster, stronger, sooner' article from the World Wildlife Fund via CCN.

Originally Posted by CNN

• World Wildlife Fund report says climate change is happening faster than predicted
• Dr Tina Tin: "Arctic sea ice melting much faster than everybody had been expecting"
• IPCC Vice Chair: "climate change is already having a greater impact than predicted"

Scroll down to Flannery.

opposed

Hell And High Water

Gobal Warming-

The Solution And The Politics-

And What We Should Do

by Joseph J. Romm


CONTENTS

Part I

1. The Climate Beast

2. 2005-2025 Reap the Whirlwind

3. 2025-2050 Planetary Purgatory

4. 2050-2100 Hell and High Water


Part II: The Politics And The Solution

5. How Climate Rhetoric Trumps Climate Reality

6. The Technology Trap and the American Way of Life

7. The Electrifying Solution

8. Peak Oil, Energy Security, and the Car of the Future

9. The U.S.-China Suicide Pact on Climate

10. Missing the Story of the Century

Conclusion: The End of Politics

This book is fairly similar to the Six Degrees book. In both books it is stated that action must be taken by the year 2015 to avoid severe consequences. Both books talk about thresholds that bring increasingly severe consequences, up to the melting of the Greenland ice cap.

In the milder scenarios described in both books...we may expect brutal heat waves, more drought, more wildfires, and extreme storms.

Both books discussed the brutal heat wave in Europe, summer 2003.

Romm is enthusiastic about hybrid cars. He argues that pure alcohol vehicles come with baggage; it takes copious water to grow biofuels, and would require much of the world's crop land.

Romm is enthuiastic about cogeneration.

Originally Posted by TimWalker

This book is fairly similar to the Six Degrees book. In both books it is stated that action must be taken by the year 2015 to avoid severe consequences. Both books talk about thresholds that bring increasingly severe consequences, up to the melting of the Greenland ice cap.

In the milder scenarios described in both books...we may expect brutal heat waves, drought, and extreme storms.

Romm is enthusiastic about hybrid cars.

I actually met Joseph Romm. In the late 90s, he and my ex used to submit jokes to the Washington Post's Style Invitational that were published (in this link, my ex was a runner-up and Joseph Romm was an honorable mention). The Style Invitational "losers" had monthly Sunday brunches, and that's where I met him.

I've got to read his book.