Originally Posted by Copperfield

For some perspective, here are the deadliest tornado years in US recorded history:


Year / Fatalities
1925 - 794
1936 - 552
1917 - 551
1927 - 540
1896 - 537
1953 - 519
2011 - 512 (132 in Joplin)
1920 - 499
1908 - 477
1909 - 404
1932 - 394
1942 - 384
1924 - 376
1974 - 366
1933 - 362


Note that in the worst year (1925), the vast majority of deaths came from a single F5 tornado that left a 291 mile path across 3 states. Also note that the vast majority of us reading these forums have only been alive for 2 of the years on this list. Deaths from tornadoes tend to be pretty random. They either hit populated areas or they don't.

Frequency of tornadoes however is very high this year and will likely be a record. Note that a "record year" is only a sample of tornado records since 1950 and that improved technology means we are better able to locate tornado formation in unpopulated areas which would not necessarily have been reported in previous years.

More information can be found here:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/2011_to...formation.html

I've seen this list too. They have shown them on the weather channel and on the news. But like they have mentioned on these different programs, if you notice most of those years were before we had early warning systems put in place (which happened in the early 1950's). Once this warning systems have been around the number of deaths per year have gone significantly. Since the 1950's the average number of deaths per year is around 50 and that holds pretty consistent from the 1950's on.

I grew up in a town where the tornado sirens blew every other week in the summer time. We constantly had severe storms. For me, the tornado sirens were more like background noise and I never got real worried about it. But I do admit that when the tornado sirens blew about a week ago where I live, I took it very seriously. This is no ordinary year.

Originally Posted by ASB65

I've seen this list too. They have shown them on the weather channel and on the news. But like they have mentioned on these different programs, if you notice most of those years were before we had early warning systems put in place (which happened in the early 1950's). Once this warning systems have been around the number of deaths per year have gone significantly. Since the 1950's the average number of deaths per year is around 50 and that holds pretty consistent from the 1950's on.

I grew up in a town where the tornado sirens blew every other week in the summer time. We constantly had severe storms. For me, the tornado sirens were more like background noise and I never got real worried about it. But I do admit that when the tornado sirens blew about a week ago where I live, I took it very seriously. This is no ordinary year.

And that is kind of the point. Deaths from tornadoes tend to be random events. In the case of Joplin, the town was given 24 minutes warning of danger. How many deaths there were the result of people who simply thought it was just another one of those pesky tornado warnings? In this case the warning was very legitimate but once again the tornado and the individual's response to the warning was the difference between life and death, yet entirely random.

In your case the difference between growing up and ignoring the warning sirens to now taking them seriously is not so much a change in the weather pattern as it is a change in your thought-process and response (which is actually a very good thing).

Originally Posted by Copperfield

And that is kind of the point. Deaths from tornadoes tend to be random events. In the case of Joplin, the town was given 24 minutes warning of danger. How many deaths there were the result of people who simply thought it was just another one of those pesky tornado warnings? In this case the warning was very legitimate but once again the tornado and the individual's response to the warning was the difference between life and death, yet entirely random.

In your case the difference between growing up and ignoring the warning sirens to now taking them seriously is not so much a change in the weather pattern as it is a change in your thought-process and response (which is actually a very good thing).

The stories about children being ripped out their parent's arms have a way of doing that to you. I have been through a few in my adult life, but they were probably F1s. I think the most scared I ever got was 13 years ago when I was very pregnant with my son and stuck on the highway in my car when a tornado went right over the top of me. Luckily it didn't touch down. But I remember thinking that I could die right there in my car.

My mother is one of these people who likes to sit on her porch and watch when the sirens blow. I don't ever remember her going to basement when we were growing up. I told her about a week ago, "Mom, if a tornado comes this year, go to the basement. Don't go out and sit on the porch and watch it. The tornadoes this year have been a lot stronger than normal." She promised me she would. Now whether or not she actually does, I don't have any control over that. She lives states away.

Tornado by Michael Allaby

"...There was a hurricane in Algeria on January 15, 1922...."

Originally Posted by Copperfield

And that is kind of the point. Deaths from tornadoes tend to be random events. In the case of Joplin, the town was given 24 minutes warning of danger. How many deaths there were the result of people who simply thought it was just another one of those pesky tornado warnings? In this case the warning was very legitimate but once again the tornado and the individual's response to the warning was the difference between life and death, yet entirely random.

In your case the difference between growing up and ignoring the warning sirens to now taking them seriously is not so much a change in the weather pattern as it is a change in your thought-process and response (which is actually a very good thing).

Unfortunately, most of the deaths in Joplin were because no matter where you were, the tornado was so huge that it flattened most structures in its path. Basements are usually a safe haven during these events but this tornado just sucked many people out of those places. But even with the strength of that twister, it's amazing that so many survived. The death toll has reached 142 at this point because some of the injured have now passed away.

It is estimated that it will be ten years to get Joplin back to its original functioning town.

Originally Posted by Deb C

Unfortunately, most of the deaths in Joplin were because no matter where you were, the tornado was so huge that it flattened most structures in its path. Basements are usually a safe haven during these events but this tornado just sucked many people out of those places. But even with the strength of that twister, it's amazing that so many survived. The death toll has reached 142 at this point because some of the injured have now passed away.

It is estimated that it will be ten years to get Joplin back to its original functioning town.

It went through the main business district of town so some people were out shopping or running around. I think the thing just came out of nowhere. My mom said it was raining really heavily so people really didn't see it coming. I think that is part of the reason the death toll is high for a tornado.

Originally Posted by Deb C

Unfortunately, most of the deaths in Joplin were because no matter where you were, the tornado was so huge that it flattened most structures in its path. Basements are usually a safe haven during these events but this tornado just sucked many people out of those places. But even with the strength of that twister, it's amazing that so many survived. The death toll has reached 142 at this point because some of the injured have now passed away.

It is estimated that it will be ten years to get Joplin back to its original functioning town.

Yep, that one was an F5. It's pretty hard to survive that kind of tornado unless you are underground. When trying to determine bad years for tornadoes, I think one would have to look even deeper than deaths reported over the course of the past hundred years or so. There are too many variables like warning systems which had or had not been put into place or whether or not strong tornadoes hit populated vs unpopulated places. I think the question would be not only how many tornadoes have we experienced this spring so far (which I know is significantly higher than normal), but how many very strong tornades (F3 or up) have we experienced compared to the years in the past. I haven't been able to find that information. I'm sure it's out there, I just don't know where to look.

No, silly boy. The tornadoes are just another indication of global warming. You even admit the frequency of tornadoes is higher than ever. Put you head in the sand if you wish; the government and the people need to do something fast about global warming, and it is not being done. There ought to be some alarms going off about that! But folks like you copperfield would rather stay in bed and sleep while the Earth burns up. Anything at all rather than admit some government action might be needed.

Originally Posted by Deb C

It is estimated that it will be ten years to get Joplin back to its original functioning town.

And even then, with twisters more frequent from now on, how long can it function before the next one hits. And how long before the next Katrina hits New Orleans? Etc.... Welcome to the 4T.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

And even then, with twisters more frequent from now on, how long can it function before the next one hits. And how long before the next Katrina hits New Orleans? Etc.... Welcome to the 4T.

So very true. Global warming is hitting us smack in the face but some still do not see the connection.

My nephew who lives in a northern suburb of Chicago just informed me on Facebook it's 101 there...Wow! And it's usually cooler in the town he lives in than other towns in that area because of the lake. It would be a rare occurrence for the temps to reach that high even in late July, and it's the beginning of June! It things like that make me think, how can anyone not see that global warming is real.

Anyway is there any evidence that global warming is caused by man? aside from that it happened almost exactly when the global warming people said it would with the effects they said it would have. That is circumstantial though.

Originally Posted by pizal81

Anyway is there any evidence that global warming is caused by man?

What would you consider to be "evidence"? Strictly speaking, there is no evidence that anything is caused by anything; causation itself is an unprovable assumption.

What we do have is this:

1) It is a fact that human activity has poured a great deal of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
2) It is a consequence of well-established physics that increasing greenhouse gases will produce global warming.
3) It is an observable fact that the earth is warming.

If we assume causation to be real, then there is every reason to believe that the increase in greenhouse gases by human beings (which we KNOW has taken place) has caused the global warming (which we also KNOW has taken place) in accordance with laws of physics that have been understood for centuries.

There is some uncertainty about the details due to the fact that the climate is a complex system involving multiple feedback loops, but you asked a very basic, very general question, to which the answer is much simpler.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

No, silly boy. The tornadoes are just another indication of global warming. You even admit the frequency of tornadoes is higher than ever. Put you head in the sand if you wish; the government and the people need to do something fast about global warming, and it is not being done. There ought to be some alarms going off about that! But folks like you copperfield would rather stay in bed and sleep while the Earth burns up. Anything at all rather than admit some government action might be needed.

I believe I have already made my opinions on the global warming debate abundantly clear on this very thread. You may feel free to go back and read them.

The earth isn't going anywhere. You are. That is a significant difference.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Hmmm .. the rest of the area was in the low 90s today. Yesterday was in the 70s, had the windows open all day.
And I'm nowhere near the lake.

Ha...Well, he is 13. I suppose he could be wrong. But I do know it's very hot where I'm at and no relief in sight. I think our high was 98 today. But I'm in Texas. So although it is hotter than normal for this time of the year, it's not shocking. We have lots of 98 degree days in the summer.

We're in the path of the smoke and ash for a forest fire in Arizona. Forest fire season is in full swing in the west. It's made things harder clear as far as Albuquerque. For what that's worth.

Originally Posted by The Rani

It's been very strange here, 50 degrees one day and 90 the next. Perhaps the thermometer at their house is in an odd place.
This morning it feels like it's already 90 degrees ... at 8 am. Oh my ...

Perhaps that was the heat index and he was confused. Who knows. I do think you guys will get some relief in the next few days and temps are going to drop back down about 30 degrees. I did see yesterday on the weather channel that there is cold front that will be pushing through your area later on this week. But when that comes, it may also produce some severe weather and conditions may produce tornadoes when the hot and cold front meet...As for us down in the south, it's just going to stay hot.

Originally Posted by The Rani

It's been very strange here, 50 degrees one day and 90 the next. Perhaps the thermometer at their house is in an odd place.
This morning it feels like it's already 90 degrees ... at 8 am. Oh my ...

That is the perfect situation for the formation of tornadoes -- somewhere reasonably close. .

Originally Posted by Copperfield

The earth isn't going anywhere. You are. That is a significant difference.

Humans aren't going anywhere just yet, although I guess you would prefer to see humans all die. Ain't gonna happen; in fact we're still getting more numerous.

Storm World

Hurricanes that make landfall have been known to spawn tornados.

So...if hurricanes should begin to appear where they have been virtually unknown, will they also spawn tornados?

Originally Posted by TimWalker

Storm World

Hurricanes that make landfall have been known to spawn tornados.

So...if hurricanes should begin to appear where they have been virtually unknown, will they also spawn tornados?

I would guess the answer to that would be, yes. Tornadoes are caused by wind sheer along with other atmospheric conditions (Hot moist hits dry cool air). Although I'm not a climatologist, I would think hurricanes could have both those ingredients (hot moist air and wind sheer).

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Humans aren't going anywhere just yet, although I guess you would prefer to see humans all die. Ain't gonna happen; in fact we're still getting more numerous.

Ahhh Eric. Have you never heard that patience is a virtue?

Originally Posted by Copperfield

Ahhh Eric. Have you never heard that patience is a virtue?

I think you'll need several lifetimes to display that virtue.

Comparison of IPCC predictions from 1990 to actual data.

Here.

James50

Summers Are Going To Get Hotter, Stanford Scientists Say

The summer season has not even officially started yet in the U.S. and already people are cranking up the a/c, boxing away the sweaters, seeking out the best swimming hole, and plotting how to avoid sweat stains. It’s about to get a lot worse.

A recent study conducted by Stanford University scientists has concluded that if greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, many regions in the world will probably experience an irreversible rise in summer temperatures within the next 20 to 60 years.

LiveScience explains that a single heat wave or warm day is not a sign of global warming. But while an individual weather event cannot be attributed to a warming world, more long-term trends are accepted in the scientific community as evidence of man-made global warming.

The recent Stanford study, which will be published this month in the journal Climatic Change Letters, found that middle latitude regions of Europe, China and North America (including the U.S.) will likely see extreme shifts in summers temperatures within the next 60 years. In just the next two decades, tropical regions of Africa, Asia and South America could see permanent and “unprecedented” summer heat. The most immediate rise in extreme temperatures is expected to occur in the tropics.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0...usaolp00000009