Analysis: New technology focuses the sun to cut solar's cost

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...80H1TV20120118

(Reuters) - A fledgling but fast-growing solar technology that multiplies the sun's power up to many hundreds of times promises to deliver cheaper electricity than traditional panels and has received the backing of some major industry players.



Called concentrating photovoltaic solar, or CPV, the technology is best suited for very sunny, desert-like locations and could face some near-term challenges. Those include a sharp drop in the price of its top competition -- mainstream solar panels -- and a financing environment that can be skittish about new technology bets.

That hasn't stopped some big corporations from moving into the space, however, with U.S. solar company SunPower Corp and Swiss engineering company ABB Group making significant bets on CPV in recent months. Previously, the technology had been primarily the domain of a handful of Silicon Valley startups.

"This is the only model which is viable in the long run because this model is very competitive without the kind of subsidies which have been supporting the PV market for the last decade," said André-Jacques Auberton-Hervé, chief executive of French semiconductor materials maker Soitec SA, which bought a majority stake in German CPV maker Concentrix Solar in 2010.

CPV's market share is still tiny, with just 689 megawatts of projects in development compared with 33,000 MW of installed non-concentrating solar panels globally, according to GTM Research. It is expected to grow quickly to more than 1 gigawatt of new installations by 2015, but its share of the market would remain small given its geographic limitations. In 2015, CPV would still represent less than 4 percent of the solar market.

Though CPV technologies vary widely, their fundamental similarity is the use of lenses or mirrors to concentrate sunlight onto very efficient photovoltaic cells. Tracking systems are used to capture maximum sunlight.

Because the sun's power is literally multiplied, fewer solar cells -- which are made from costly semiconductor materials -- are needed. That's a major advantage, CPV manufacturers say, as renewable energy is still racing to reduce its cost so it can compete -- without government subsidies -- with nuclear, coal and natural-gas-fired power.

COMPETING WITHOUT SUBSIDIES

According to GTM Research, the cost of a high-efficiency CPV system is roughly equivalent to other PV projects today but is poised come down faster than other solar technologies. By 2020, CPV systems are expected to cost $1.20 a watt, compared with about $1.67 per watt or more for systems made from rival PV technologies.

Soitec's Auberton-Herve pointed out that stalwart PV players such as First Solar Inc are now eager to reduce their reliance on subsidized markets and chase growth in CPV-friendly regions such as Africa and India.

"We developed the right product for these kinds of markets," he said.

Indeed, SunPower had those regions in mind when it swept into the CPV market late last year with a product -- called C7 because it concentrates the sun's light seven times -- it says delivers solar electricity for up to 20 percent less than traditional PV technology.

"Our pipeline is expanding quite rapidly to include C7 in those areas where we might not have gone before," SunPower President Howard Wenger said in an interview.

It helps, of course, that SunPower's majority shareholder, giant French energy company Total SA, has a strong presence in those regions, Wenger said.

Other large energy players entering the CPV space include ABB, which last month paid $20 million for a minority stake in GreenVolts, a California startup backed by venture capital firm Oak Investment Partners. ABB will market the company's systems to utilities and businesses worldwide.

Soitec, meanwhile, has teamed up with conglomerate Johnson Controls Inc, which will develop projects with its technology.

DEMONSTRATING SUCCESS

But even with some corporate giants behind it, CPV faces some sizeable challenges, not the least of which is a dramatic drop in the price of traditional panels.

"CPV was kind of coming out guns blazing at the beginning of 2011," said Brett Prior, a solar industry analyst with GTM Research. "Now in the last 12 months module prices have really gotten cut in half. That makes it a lot harder for (CPV companies) to say that they are significantly cheaper anymore."

In addition, CPV companies must overcome skittishness on the part of banks who have shied away from financing projects that employ newer technologies.

"The challenge for CPV is simply being able to demonstrate a long term operating history that's consistent with success similar to crystalline PV," said Greg Rosen, vice president of solar finance at Union Bank's leasing and asset finance division.

"With a regular PV project, if you have a general failure or if the PV manufacturer goes bankrupt, you can substitute parts very easily. But if you have a similar issue with a CPV company, they may have a patented technology that might make it hard to substitute."

Of course the complexity -- and cost -- of CPV technologies varies depending on their materials and design. Some, like products from SunPower and startup Skyline Solar, concentrate the sun only a few times onto traditional silicon solar cells.

At the other end of the spectrum, technologies from companies including Soitec, Amonix, SolFocus and GreenVolts concentrate sunlight many hundreds of times onto solar cells made by Boeing Co's Spectrolab division that are traditionally used to power satellites. The higher the concentration, the less semiconductor material needed.

Many CPV players say the mirrors, lenses and other components that make up the lion's share of their systems have been used in other industries for years and should offer banks some measure of comfort with their technologies.

"We are using the standard materials that have been proven for decades ... to put this together in a unique way to drive the cost below we think anybody else," Skyline vice president of marketing Tim Keating said.

(Reporting By Nichola Groom; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

from wikipedia:

Energy storage methods

For more info follow the link and click on the links and references in the article.

Solar energy is not available at night, and energy storage is an important issue because modern energy systems usually assume continuous availability of energy.[101]
Thermal mass systems can store solar energy in the form of heat at domestically useful temperatures for daily or seasonal durations. Thermal storage systems generally use readily available materials with high specific heat capacities such as water, earth and stone. Well-designed systems can lower peak demand, shift time-of-use to off-peak hours and reduce overall heating and cooling requirements.[102][103]
Phase change materials such as paraffin wax and Glauber's salt are another thermal storage media. These materials are inexpensive, readily available, and can deliver domestically useful temperatures (approximately 64 °C). The "Dover House" (in Dover, Massachusetts) was the first to use a Glauber's salt heating system, in 1948.[104]
Solar energy can be stored at high temperatures using molten salts. Salts are an effective storage medium because they are low-cost, have a high specific heat capacity and can deliver heat at temperatures compatible with conventional power systems. The Solar Two used this method of energy storage, allowing it to store 1.44 TJ in its 68 m3 storage tank with an annual storage efficiency of about 99%.[105]
Off-grid PV systems have traditionally used rechargeable batteries to store excess electricity. With grid-tied systems, excess electricity can be sent to the transmission grid, while standard grid electricity can be used to meet shortfalls. Net metering programs give household systems a credit for any electricity they deliver to the grid. This is often legally handled by 'rolling back' the meter whenever the home produces more electricity than it consumes. If the net electricity use is below zero, the utility is required to pay for the extra at the same rate as they charge consumers.[106] Other legal approaches involve the use of two meters, to measure electricity consumed vs. electricity produced. This is less common due to the increased installation cost of the second meter.
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity stores energy in the form of water pumped when energy is available from a lower elevation reservoir to a higher elevation one. The energy is recovered when demand is high by releasing the water to run through a hydroelectric power generator.[107]

Info on energy storage in home solar systems

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Energy storage methods

None of these things come remotely close to grid level storage and really are little more than tinker toys when what we need is major construction. At the residential level and with new construction, they can be helpful, particular the passive design. Unfortunately, most people want to be able to look outside which means energy using windows. Even the most expensive double and triple pane windows have a worse R value than a stud wall. Only in the mildest climates can you expect to be off the grid. In hot places (which includes most of the US in the summer), A/C quickly saps any battery system not to mention the load of refrigerators and stove tops. And of course, you are ignoring the huge housing stock built 30-40 years ago where remodeling is very expensive or outright impractical.

We cannot run our economy on wind and solar unless we have gigawatt-days level storage.

James50

info on thermal solar energy plant storage systems

Energy Storage for Solar Power



excerpt:

Startup BrightSource announces a new system that could allow future solar plants to run at night.

TUESDAY, AUGUST 9, 2011BY KEVIN BULLIS Audio »
BrightSource Energy has become the latest solar thermal power company to develop a system for generating power when the sun isn't shining. The company says the technology can lower the cost of solar power and make it more reliable, helping it compete with conventional sources of electricity.

The company, based in Oakland, California, is building one of the world's largest solar thermal power plants. The 392-megawatt solar plant in Ivanpah, California, however, will not include the storage technology. Instead, BrightSource is working with utilities to determine which future projects could best benefit from storage.

Solar thermal systems use mirrors to focus sunlight, generating temperatures high enough to produce steam to drive a turbine. One of the advantages of the solar thermal approach, versus conventional photovoltaics that convert sunlight directly into electricity, is that heat can be stored cheaply and used when needed to generate electricity. In all solar thermal plants, some heat is stored in the fluids circulating through the system. This evens out any short fluctuations in sunlight and lets the plant generate electricity for some time after the sun goes down. But adding storage systems would let the plant ride out longer periods of cloud cover and generate power well into, or even throughout, the night. Such long-term storage could be needed if solar is to provide a large share of the total power supply.

Good news, CA has just required cars to reduce pollution by 70% and greenhouse gases by 50%, by 2025. We've taken up the job again to combat global warming and oil depletion, which was blocked in 2003. Let's hope it sticks this time, and the car companies are forced to build electric cars, batteries and charging stations.

quote:


CLEAN CAR REGULATIONS

California passes new auto emission rules. SAN FRANCISCO -
California air regulators passed sweeping auto emission standards
Friday that include a mandate to have 1.4 million electric and
hybrid vehicles on state roads by 2025. California's auto
emissions standards are often more strict than federal ones, and
the move could set the pace for other states. The California Air
Resources Board unanimously approved the new rules, which require
that one in seven new cars sold in the state in 2025 be an
electric or other zero-emission vehicle. Posted.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT


quote:
The California Air Resources Board unanimously approved the new rules that require that one in seven of the new cars sold in the state in 2025 be an electric or other zero-emission vehicle.

The plan also mandates a 75 percent reduction in smog-forming pollutants by 2025, and a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from today's standards.

And did I read this right?

quote:

Companies including Ford Motor Corp., Chrysler Group LLC, General Motors Co., Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and others submitted testimony Thursday supportive of the new standards.

!!!!

I know the global warming believers have become immune to facts, but I will take the time to post this anyway.

Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

Nice chart of average worldwide temperature in the article.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

I know the global warming believers have become immune to facts, but I will take the time to post this anyway.

Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years



Nice chart of average worldwide temperature in the article.

James50

http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/...-map-of-plant/

Pat from Albuquerque - with most of New Mexico creeping up from Zone 7a to Zone 7b. Trivial? Tell that to a gardener - or a bark beetle!

Of course, you could always argue that the USDA is Da Gummint, and therefore a tool of the dogmatic left-wing party line. And the twittering tweety birds in the neighborhood trees (now in bud) are of such numbers, volume, and aggressiveness they sound like a political convention. And the local diner is offering fresh strawberry pancakes as its breakfast special already.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/...-map-of-plant/

Pat from Albuquerque - with most of New Mexico creeping up from Zine 7a to Zone 7b. Trivial? Tell that to a gardener - or a bark beetle!

I suspect they are responding to events of the past 20-30 years in which there has been warming. They may be behind the curve. The question is whether we should believe the climate models that are unable to account for the average temperature staying constant in the face of massive expansion in CO2 emissions.

James50

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/...-map-of-plant/

Pat from Albuquerque - with most of New Mexico creeping up from Zone 7a to Zone 7b. Trivial? Tell that to a gardener - or a bark beetle!

Of course, you could always argue that the USDA is Da Gummint, and therefore a tool of the dogmatic left-wing party line. And the twittering tweety birds in the neighborhood trees (now in bud) are of such numbers, volume, and aggressiveness they sound like a political convention. And the local diner is offering fresh strawberry pancakes as its breakfast special already.

Fargo went from 3b to 4b. Ginkos and sugar maples are hardy here, now.

Originally Posted by James50

I suspect they are responding to events of the past 20-30 years in which there has been warming. They may be behind the curve. The question is whether we should believe the climate models that are unable to account for the average temperature staying constant in the face of massive expansion in CO2 emissions.

James50

the climate changes in bursts, not smoothly.

Originally Posted by James50

I suspect they are responding to events of the past 20-30 years in which there has been warming. They may be behind the curve. The question is whether we should believe the climate models that are unable to account for the average temperature staying constant in the face of massive expansion in CO2 emissions.

James50

Global warming is continuing apace. You can read reports from deniers all you want; it doesn't change the facts that you Republicans are blind to.



caption: Global mean land-ocean temperature change from 1880–2011, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
quote:
Recent estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 and 2010 tied for the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.

You are getting desperate James. Your blind loyality to the car and oil industries is being shown to be foolish. Your contentions that solar energy and other alternatives can't be stored and can't be built to scale have been disproved here. Now you resort to outright denialism. How much do you have invested in these old dinosaur industries, James? Give it up. Join the 21st century.

The "There has been no warming for 15 years" meme is classic Denialist data manipulation, using the anomalous 1997 El Nino year as the start of the data set. You are smart enough not to fall for such things, James.

Wow, not sure where to put this, but Alaska and Canada are experiencing near record cold while it has so far been a mild winter in the lower 48.

in Circle Hot Springs, AK on Sunday, 29 Jan 2012 the HIGH temperature was a blistering -49°F, breaking the -44°F record which has stood since 1917. It gets better. That same day in Circle Hot Springs the low temperature was -58°F breaking the old record of -52°F set in 1941 by six degrees.
...
While all that was happening, the weather station in Jim River, AK closed in on the all time record coldest temperature of -80°F set in 1971. That’s not only the Alaska all-time record, but the record for the entire United States. Unfortunately, the weather station stopped reporting at -79°F.

I can't even conceive of temperatures that cold.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

Wow, not sure where to put this, but Alaska and Canada are experiencing near record cold while it has so far been a mild winter in the lower 48.


I can't even conceive of temperatures that cold.

James50

Strongly positive Arctic Oscillation. The cold air is getting trapped in the north.

Originally Posted by Odin

The "There has been no warming for 15 years" meme is classic Denialist data manipulation, using the anomalous 1997 El Nino year as the start of the data set. You are smart enough not to fall for such things, James.

The 1990 USDA data runs from 1974 to 1986. The 2010 data runs from 1976 to 2007, I believe. Sorry - that's not cherry-picking.

Originally Posted by Odin

Strongly positive Arctic Oscillation. The cold air is getting trapped in the north.

Funny how global weather patterns can work, eh? The same thing blocked hot air over northern Asia a couple years back, when everyone wanted to cry "WARMING!!!1!11!".

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

You will be proven wrong. My predictions tend to be correct. We will be entering a green 3rd industrial revolution in this decade. This is not only a political prediction but an astrological one.

If we don't, then climate change will cause a lot of havoc that could send many nations into decline, including ours. It will anyway, now. Millions having to migrate into the remaining habitable territories will certainly be "inconvenient," and standards of living will certainly be a lot more difficult. All except a few will live in what today we call 3rd world conditions. Populations will crash everywhere, and it will be generations before a recovery starts; another chance to do the right thing. I say, why hang on to bad politics? Do the right thing now James.

It is not a "remote possibility" that we have a smart grid that can direct energy where it is needed when the sun isn't out and the wind isn't blowing. We can do that now.

The only thing I can't quite figure yet, is when the next financial crash will be, or just what it will take to bring down the big money bosses who are the rulers of this country, and are keeping us all hooked on oil just to line their own pockets-- and for no other reason. It could not be clearer. The obstacles to conversion are not technical; they are 100% political. And as Al Gore said, political will is a renewable resource. You may be able to question the technical abilities of human beings to update current solar and wind technologies; you can't really debate the entire scientific community about global warming. It is real and man-made. To do nothing about it, just to protect the position of a few greedy CEOs, is the worst stupidity.

This is a political issue and both sides are at fault and both must cooperate to make progress. We have been collectively sitting on our hands for 30 years.
Manhattan Project for Clean Energy Independence

http://forbes.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=226660

..."The New Manhattan Project challenges the United States to reach 50% energy independence in ten years and 100% energy independence in 20 years and brings together scientists and researchers in the U.S. in a competitive format to reach one of seven energy goals:

- Double CAFE standards to 70 MPG while keeping vehicles affordable
- Cut home and business energy usage in half
- Make solar power work at the same cost as coal
- Make the production of biofuels cost-competitive with gasoline
- Safely and cheaply store carbon emissions from coal-powered plants
- Safely store or neutralize nuclear waste
- Produce usable electricity from a nuclear fusion reaction "...

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

The 1990 USDA data runs from 1974 to 1986. The 2010 data runs from 1976 to 2007, I believe. Sorry - that's not cherry-picking.

I was refer to charts the denialists throw around starting in the late 90s to the present and then go "what warming?".

Also, the current solar cycle is pretty wimpy, so a leveling out of warming is not surprising. A new century-long solar minimum would be a god-send for us right now, giving us a few more years to get us off fossil fuels.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Funny how global weather patterns can work, eh? The same thing blocked hot air over northern Asia a couple years back, when everyone wanted to cry "WARMING!!!1!11!".

There are some thinking the extremes the AO has been having lately is related to the shrinking of the arctic ice cap.

Originally Posted by Odin

There are some thinking the extremes the AO has been having lately is related to the shrinking of the arctic ice cap.

There's also thinking that the AO has only been scientifically observed going through two or three cycles, and that as such talking about "extremes" of it is pretty irresponsible, from a rational standpoint. The weather patterns we're seeing now appear to correspond to things for which we only have spotty, anecdotal records in the past. Unfortunately, lacking time machines, 'appear to correspond' is about as close as we can possibly get to 'match outright'.

So it goes. I prefer my knowledge instant and complete, but it rarely works out that way...

It does appear that wherever there are weather extremes, someone is willing to attribute it to global warming. Too cold - global warming. Too hot - global warming.

Texas Heat and Drought Caused by Global Warming, NASA's Hansen Says

For three months last summer, temperatures in Texas soared higher than at any time in recorded history, and the state is still coping with the most expensive drought in its history. But can the 2011 Texas heat wave be attributed to global warming?

Most scientists are careful not to link specific weather events to climate change trends, but NASA's James Hansen and two colleagues from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University have taken that plunge. They've gathered data they say shows that the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heat wave—as well as a deadly Moscow heat in 2010—were "a consequence of global warming because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming."

James50

Originally Posted by James50

It does appear that wherever there are weather extremes, someone is willing to attribute it to global warming. Too cold - global warming. Too hot - global warming.

Texas Heat and Drought Caused by Global Warming, NASA's Hansen Says



James50

This is the mildest winter we have had in Texas since I've lived here. (6 years). I've been wearing flip-flops and short sleeved shirts all season long. And since spring generally arrives here sometime around mid February, I think we may dodged the bullet this year and we won't get any snow or really cold days here this winter. And as much as I can't complain about 60 and 70 degrees days most of the winter, it does concern me that we are in warm pattern and this coming summer will be as brutal as it was last summer.

Originally Posted by James50

It does appear that wherever there are weather extremes, someone is willing to attribute it to global warming. Too cold - global warming. Too hot - global warming.

Weather is not climate.
Climate is not weather.

Originally Posted by TnT

Weather is not climate.
Climate is not weather.

Perhaps someone should tell Mr Hansen that.

James50

Originally Posted by TnT

Weather is not climate.
Climate is not weather.

Lots of extreme weather is likely a result of climate change. Hansen does not need to be told that. People need to listen to Mr. Hansen.