Indeed. Car culture, heavy (and necessary) use of air conditioning, and a big reliance upon electronic entertainments. The Americans most stingy in their use of energy are New Yorkers. The Southeastern US would get hotter.Originally Posted by Bad Dog
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Lol,
This is more what I was commenting on.The first solutions to Crisis difficulties are patchwork solutions and desperate, individual efforts of the Common Man to solve his own problems in his own narrow universe, which explains why many of the individual responses to the Great Depression were the formation of small businesses that filled unglamorous but vacant niches. As a rule the biggest and most pressing threats get the greatest attentions. The last Crisis resolved genocidal, fascist racism that sent the ashes of recently-living competitors of economic elites (Jews who were much of the European middle class before 1940) up chimneys. It did not solve Jim Crow racism that exploited people largely trained to accept their roles as impoverished toilers out of fear of a strictly-personal lynching. The Crisis of 1940 would resolve genocidal racism built upon resentments and myth; the subsequent Awakening of the 1960s and 1970s would question and challenge institutional racism. The ultimate solution to fascist racism that culminated in mass murder was military conquest, the definitive outer-world solution. The solution to the institutional racism that oppressed people in the American South was to change the minds of people.
As to your contention that global warming will likely be a major component of the Crisis next time around, I agree. I suspect that, barring nuclear exchange or something equally horrific, this Crisis will end with the world broken down into regional blocs and disputed areas, and that the issues on the international stage for the next one will be linked to things like global warming and resource depletion. I said as much to Eric recently. I doubt they'll be that big of an issue during this one.
At this point all we're likely doing is sorting out the domestic arrangements within the blocs, and the borders and relative rankings between the blocs.
Last edited by JordanGoodspeed; 10-01-2013 at 03:51 PM.
A simulation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2..._Scenarios.ogg
A hint: if you are young and want to see any part of the Mediterranean Basin, do so before you get old.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Whethe tht model devoelpes as yhou describe or not, I see AGW as a primary 2T issue to be resolved then or in the following 4T. I'm not sure the problem can simmer long enough to reach the 4T before all hell breaks loose ... but this will be your generation's mess to fix not mine. As previously mentioned, I'll be taking a nap.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
Speaking of simmering:
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/frack...ive-8C11323012
200 times the permitted value of radium. Oh, so tasty profits. Marie Curie would like a word...
Vice versa. Global warming and resource depletion is the crisis that we already face. We have already done so little to reverse the effects, however, that they will extend into the next 2T. During this 4T, however, we will be forced to begin the changes needed and to ramp up alternative green energy. Once the Republican blockheads are moved out of the way in the 2020s, this process will happen fast. That will allow us to enjoy a relatively prosperous 1T; nothing like the 1950s and early 60s, to be sure; but good enough, because the anti-equality, trickle-down, self-reliance, government-is-the-problem meme will also have been shoved aside.
If this requires a division of the country, that means that only the blue side will move forward in these ways, while the red side wallows in self-destruction. As the 1T goes along, the red side might quickly begin to tire of its suicidal course and petition to rejoin the blue states in some kind of looser confederation.
By the time the next 2T comes around, the next prophets will move beyond the high-tech culture and toward a more organic and communal, community lifestyle that is sustainable, and can further remediate the effects of global warming that will still persist. In fact, these effects will probably be ignored again for much of the 1T, since that's what happens in 1Ts; thus the need for further change in the 2T. Consolidation of corrupt corporate power around 2040 will cry out for change from the new prophets in 2046. The 2T will be the climax of the green revolution that started in the 1960s. But by the time of the next 4T at the end of this century, the problems of global warming will have been reversed, and new issues will appear.
The new green civilization, more new-age, but still partially corporate or collectivist, will be in a position to expand in a baroque-like way. Soon there may even be a missionary-like attitude among leading peoples. Artists will get more ambitious and new age temples will be built. The 22nd century will be a time of lasting achievements, and a climax of the new global civilization.
Our current 4T is domestic. The danger from abroad that some posters here focus on will not go away; it's a question of emphasis. Islamic terrorists are not big or powerful enough to dominate our crisis now, and we have already had our fill of trying to contain them and to build nations abroad. Nuclear crises do not loom; we are moving toward containing these threats. The world has already been broken up into blocs; that is old news. What may become broken up in this 4T is our own country.
The current stalemate in Washington is the current crisis. The Crisis IS the Tea Party. Their very existence IS the Crisis. The Crisis is that we have allowed such people to come into power in our country, or that a segment of us has become so deceived and ignorant that it puts them into office. That is the Crisis, and nothing else.
Good old Eric with his predictions-as-wish-fullfillment. New Age temples, indeed.
One thing I have to agree with, this 4T does seem to have an Internal emphasis.
But based on the rational extension of cycles: think of most of the great temples in history; they were built in baroque ages, about 200-300 years after the start of civilization cycles e.g. 1550BC, 1060 BC, 570BC, 80 BC, 410 AD, 900 AD, 1400 AD, 1890 AD. Those that weren't built in Renaissance periods like our own time, were built in baroque ones. Think of the great Egyptian temples of 1300 BC. Think of the first mausoleum; think of the Pantheon, Chartres, the Taj Mahal, Angkor Wat, St. Paul's. Since we are moving into a new age, beyond traditional Christianity, it just stands to reason.
In fact, the Pantheon in the Roman silver age seems like a good model for what we can expect. See you there, in our next lives!
Last edited by Eric the Green; 10-04-2013 at 03:26 PM.
It's a Civil War.
When I'm an old man Fargo is going to be 10F warmer.
FUCK!
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
The Extreme Becomes The Norm
Here we have CNN publicising one of the latest scientific overviews. This one is from the University of Hawaii, published in Nature. Climate change to drive annual temps to new highs within a generation, study says.
The gist of it is that the extreme patterns we have seen in recent years are apt to become the norm several decades downstream.
I'll note a significant change in the foretelling, something I've been seeing in other sources. Instead of saying "we can stop it if we act now" they are saying "we can delay it a few decades if we act now."
Ipcc 5
The 5th IPCC report, summarizing the current state of global warming understanding, recently came out. Prior versions of the report were attacked vehemently by the denialists. This one, not so much. The criticisms and attacks made on the prior report have been met with systematic rebuttals. The current denialist tactic seems to be to lay low and count on the budget shenanigans in Washington to distract from the impact of the report.
Anyway, those interested might want to visit Realclimate for overviews of the findings and links to the serious papers.
Kansas City in the winter and Dallas in the summer.
Whoops -- that's what Kansas City is like already!
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Perhaps the majority will listen and take heed when the message is, "We can survive this if we act now." The message following that one will not be pretty.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astro...o_deniers.html
My advice for USA Today is to take a page from the Los Angeles Times. Giving space to the Heartland Institute is a bit like running an OpEd from Joe Camel telling people cigarette smoking is fun. In fact, the analogy is apt, since the Heartland Institute worked with Phillip Morris to sow doubt about the dangers of second hand smoke, and Bast himself has ardently supported Joe Camel. Ironically, I'll note that a recent article in USA Today makes a similar point.
Extreme Weather Events in Europe
In Europe, a movement is underway to prepare for the consequences of global warming. They recently put out a report, Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation. From the preface...
This study arises from the concern that changes in weather patterns will be one of the principal effects of climate change and with these will come extreme weather. This is of considerable consequence in Europe as it impacts on the vulnerability of communities across the continent and exposes them to environmental risks.
It is now widely recognised that failures in international efforts to agree on the action necessary to limit global climate change mean that adaptation to its consequences is necessary and unavoidable (Solomon et al., 2007). The changes anticipated in the occurrence and character of extreme weather events are, in many cases, the dominant factor in designing adaptation measures.
Policy communities within the EU have begun to consider appropriate responses to these changes and an EU adaptation strategy is under active development and implementation. There are also sectoral EU initiatives, for example on water shortages and heat waves, and, at a regional level, on planning for floods and storms.
The basic and unavoidable challenge for decision makers is to find workable and cost-effective solutions when faced with increased probabilities of very costly adverse impacts. Information about the nature and scale of these changes is essential to guide decisions on appropriate solutions.
Agenda-setting for climate change and adaptation has to take place in a social or/and political setting. Scientific information about temporal changes in the probability distributions of extreme weather events over Europe, the main focus of this report, is important for informing the social and political processes that it is hoped will lead to adequate climate-change adaptation measures in Europe.
I have read most of the report, and I see climate change as a great economic calamity to the financial industry alone -- typically creditors and insurers. The ruin of creditors and insurers could have roughly the same effects as a native kleptocracy (Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos) or a ravaging occupier (Philippines under Japanese rule). But climate change would not have an identifiable villain.
Loss of food security would lead to political instability and social strife. Any visible minority could easily be transformed into a scapegoat expected to feel the brunt of all economic distress. Economic distress in the early 1930s that had no cause in climatic change or crop failures led to some of the most horrific persecutions and slaughters in human history.
It is probably easier to prevent global warming, or at least slow it, than to adapt to rapid change of climate. I get the impression that the desert zone of the Sahara would move into the Mediterranean Basin and the southern inland Balkans (Serbia and Bulgaria) with particularly-nasty effects in Turkey and the Levant. The Mediterranean zone of hot desert-like summers and intensely-rainy winters would appear in the central tier of Europe (basically France, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine). Precipitation would become less frequent but more intense everywhere, reflecting severer storms as likely consequences of greater heat -- the latter already being reflected in more frequent events of anomalous heat.
Global warming is too risky for the maintenance of wasteful use of energy.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
http://www.motortrend.com/features/a..._driving_less/
The Great Recession's effect on the ability of 16- to 34-year-olds to find a good-paying job has exacerbated this, according to the Frontier Group's study, "Transportation and the New Generation," by Benjamin Davis and Tony Dutzik, released last spring. If the U.S. automotive market has truly recovered from its 10.4-million-unit nadir in 2009 to an expected 13.5- to 14-million this year, it's without much help from the under-35 age group.
Read more: http://www.motortrend.com/features/a...#ixzz2j202lmu9
http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2...utselling-cars
Parts of the data can be explained by the slump in car sales across Europe. Car sales reached a 20-year low earlier this year. More recent figures showed they were recovering.
This decline coincided with the worldwide recession, which hit European economies particularly hard, though there are signs they may be recovering).
The U.S. has fared much better. Last month, car sales jumped to pre-recession levels. But U.S. automakers face another problem: Millennials aren't interested in buying cars. Bike sales, on the other hand, are solid.
If you can read these maps you can weep. Without the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, sea levels rise dramatically.
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/20...ice-melted-map
Just a reminder of what is at stake. The worldwide average temperature goes from 58F to 80F. The South of France becomes much like the North of Egypt. So figure that a place like St. Louis, Missouri gets brutally hot -- longer.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
I have room for Danilynn, when Jackson gets too hot, or floods out...
Jackson, Michigan will also be nasty.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
MANILA — A massive relief effort in the central Philippines was being hampered early Tuesday by the wreckage of one of the largest and deadliest storms of the century, a super typhoon that left trees splintered on the streets, bodies festering in open view and desperate towns short of food and water.
The destruction across a chain of Philippine islands leaves authorities with a relief operation both urgent and complicated, and of a scale exceeding any other in the history of this disaster-prone nation.
Rescue workers have reached many of the areas hit four days ago by Typhoon Haiyan, but others remain inaccessible. Pharmacies have been swept away and hospitals gutted. Looters have hauled away medical supplies, according to local media accounts. The half-dozen provinces hit most directly by Haiyan’s 150 mph winds still lack electricity or mobile connections. In some remote areas, relief can come only by boat or helicopter.
A clearer picture of the destruction came more fully into view early Tuesday as a wave of emergency workers reported conditions on the ground and the Philippine military provided aerial photos of towns ground into wood beams and rubble. Photos also showed survivors walking the streets, holding clothes against their noses to block the stench of bodies.
The typhoon cut a path through the middle of this island country — a direct hit on about 10 percent of the population. Up to 10,000 are feared dead in Tacloban city alone, according to unconfirmed accounts, and thousands across the region are missing.
“It is really a massive disaster,” said Sandra Bulling, an emergency communications officer at CARE, a humanitarian agency, who made it to a village 20 miles from Tacloban on Monday. “Aid is slowly getting through, and the local authorities have started distributing. But what the municipalities are telling us is, they’re running out of their stock, and now they’re really relying on international support.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...537_story.html
Once again, we see the results of Republican inaction. This and all the past recent weather disasters and many more to come can be laid directly at the foot of George W. Bush, John Boehner, the Tea Party and everyone who voted for them. We could have had meaningful policies to deal with global warming by now. Democrats don't get off scot free either. We should have had them decades ago too.
The poll recently posted by Einzige contains these items:
Which of these issues are important to you?
The environment total 74% Dem 90% Rep 53% Ind 71%
Most important
The environment total 6% Dem 10% Rep 0% Ind 4%
Republicans are a big fat zero! They still deny global warming, it's cause, its effects, and its cure. If you are concerned about the disaster in the Phillippines:
a) send money to relief agencies
b) vote Democratic or Green, and campaign too. We cannot tolerate Republicans in power anymore!
