From the long range view, the supposed hiatus has been very minor. Decade by decade, warming has been steady. And comparing more-recent years to 1998 is silly; 1998 represented a dramatic jump in global temps. It was a severe El Nino year. Years before 1998 were very much lower than all the years after 1998.
Global Weireding
The Arctic ice cap is melting faster than expected. Arctic air seems to be coming south more than we're used to, though not always in the same place. Some years it's North America, sometimes Europe, sometimes Asia. The Jet Stream seems to be meandering north and south more than it used to. This implies more mixing of air masses, warm air getting north and cold coming south.Originally Posted by herbal tee
If you add up the zillions of thermometers you can find an overall warming trend, but to the casual eye of the non-professional observer, more extreme weather, or global weireding, seems to be the more obvious trend.
No partisan difference? See the latest congressional LCV scorecard and the canyon-sized gap between the two parties on environmental issues.
http://scorecard.lcv.org/members-of-congress
for example, page 2: from CA:
name, party/state/district, 2014 score, lifetime score
Denham, Jeff RCA-10 3%8%
Miller, George DCA-11 83%88%
Pelosi, Nancy DCA-12 91%92%
Lee, Barbara J. DCA-13 91%96%
Speier, Jackie DCA-14 94%87%
Swalwell, Eric DCA-15 97%95%
Costa, Jim DCA-16 34%48%
Honda, Mike DCA-17 94%97%
Eshoo, Anna G. DCA-18 97%97% (my lady!)
Lofgren, Zoe DCA-19 97%92%
Farr, Sam DCA-20 91%94%
Valadao, David G. RCA-21 3%2%
Nunes, Devin G. RCA-22 6%4%
McCarthy, Kevin RCA-23 3%3%
Capps, Lois DCA-24 94%96%
McKeon, Buck P. RCA-25 3%7%
Brownley, Julia DCA-26 94%94%
Chu, Judy M. DCA-27 91%97%
Schiff, Adam B. DCA-28 97%97%
Cárdenas, Tony DCA-29 91%92%
Sherman, Brad J. DCA-30 97%97%
Miller, Gary G. RCA-31 6%3%
Napolitano, Grace DCA-32 83%90%
Waxman, Henry A. DCA-33 97%92%
Becerra, Xavier DCA-34 94%92%
Negrete McLeod, Gloria DCA-35 77%75%
Ruiz, Raul DCA-36 89%87%
Bass, Karen DCA-37 94%88%
Sanchez, Linda DCA-38 91%91%
Last edited by Eric the Green; 02-26-2015 at 03:38 PM.
Interesting. Mr. Costa appears to be the outlier. I see that he represents agricultural producers in a swing district. He's also a Keystone pipeline supporter.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
The pattern holds between both parties, and even within states. The one Republican in Maryland gets a big fat 0 from the League of Conservation Voters for 2014 and 4% lifetime; the other Representatives from Maryland score between 91 and 97.
If you think that states make a difference, then guess again:
GEORGIA
Kingston, Jack RGA-01 3%9%
Bishop, Sanford D. DGA-02 43%48%
Westmoreland, Lynn A. RGA-03 3%4%
Johnson, Hank DGA-04 91%94%
Lewis, John R. DGA-05 91%92%
Price, Tom RGA-06 3%5%
Woodall, Rob RGA-07 0%5%
Scott, Austin RGA-08 6%5%
Collins, Doug RGA-09 3%5%
Broun, Paul C. RGA-10 6%5%
Gingrey, Phil RGA-11 6%5%
Barrow, John DGA-12 31%45%
Scott, David DGA-13 89%80%
Graves, Tom RGA-14 3%4%
MICHIGAN
Benishek, Dan RMI-01 6%5%
Huizenga, Bill RMI-02 3%7%
Amash, Justin RMI-03 11%15%
Camp, Dave RMI-04 6%9%
Kildee, Daniel T. DMI-05 97%97%
Upton, Fred RMI-06 6%29%
Walberg, Tim RMI-07 0%5%
Rogers, Mike J. RMI-08 3%8%
Levin, Sander M. DMI-09 97%90%
Miller, Candice S. RMI-10 6%13%
Bentivolio, Kerry L. RMI-11 3%3%
Dingell, John D. DMI-12 89%75%
Conyers, John DMI-13 94%80%
Peters, Gary C. DMI-14 91%90%
Only one Republican in either state has an LCV rating above 10% in either state -- barely (11%). Two Georgia Democrats have poor ratings, but all Republicans in both Georgia and Michigan have execrable scores on the environment.
My alleged Representative gets a big, fat Zero.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
We are now experiencing an ice-sleet mix. This makes 4 winter storms in 8 days. In many years we get no winter storms at all. Somehting is def. out of whack this winter. And I suspect that Arctic/Greenland ice sheet melting is a big part of it.
Another concern.
The rise of black soot
New field research suggests that on the Tibetan plateau the effect of black soot on glacial melting rivals, and may even surpass, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions.
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip...E1PA8Z,BI4QX,1
…. "Glacial retreat on the Tibetan plateau is driven to some extent by global warming, which results from increasing greenhouse gas emissions, but other factors are most likely involved, too. Black soot is an aerosol pollutant that warms the troposphere, and there is increasing evidence that black soot is one of the additional agents contributing to surface melting.”…
… "Scenarios for the future climate are often dramatic and are usually made with the assumption that fossil fuels will continue to be burned for the foreseeable future. Reducing human-made climate-forcing agents that have a net warming effect on the environment, including black soot, is a necessity if we want to prevent the deleterious effect of glacier loss on the Tibetan plateau. A significant reduction in fresh water supplies for more than a billion people would represent a global climate and human health catastrophe.”…
Here’s how much faster wind and solar are growing than fossil fuels
By Chris Mooney March 9
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/e...-fossil-fuels/
A wind turbine farm owned by PacifiCorp stands near Glenrock, Wyo., Monday, May 6, 2013. (AP Photo/Matt Young)
There’s been a lot of positive news about clean energy lately. For instance, we’ve reported that from 2008 to the present, wind and solar energy capacity in the United States has tripled.
Now, a new report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration makes a similar point. It finds that the electricity generated from wind and solar grew a lot faster than electricity generated by fossil fuels last year. In fact, solar more than doubled, and wind outgrew all other sources.
“I think the story that renewable generation is up from wind and solar and other sources is certainly the story to tell,” said Emily Williams, deputy director of industry data and analysis at the American Wind Energy Association, which heralded the report.
Here’s the bad news, though: Wind and solar are still only contributing a small fraction of the total electricity that we use, and far, far less than coal. They may be growing faster, but they’re very far behind.
The new data come from the EIA’s latest installment of Electric Power Monthly, which provides stats on net electricity generation, across different energy sources, on a monthly and also annual basis. “Net generation” is defined by EIA as the gross electricity generated from a particular power source, minus the “electrical energy consumed at the generating station(s).” It should not be confused with electricity generating “capacity,” which is how much a source can potentially generate, vs. how much it actually produced.
Based on EIA’s data, there was considerably more growth in non-fossil electricity than in fossil based generation in 2014. In particular, wind and solar grew much more than coal or natural gas:
As you can see, wind increased net generation by 13,951 thousand megawatt hours — a bigger increase than for any other electricity source — and solar by 9,285 thousand (summing together both solar photovoltaic and solar thermal). In solar’s case, net generation more than doubled from 2013 to 2014 — in 2013, it was only 9,036 thousand megawatt hours in total. In 2014, by contrast, it was 18,321 thousand megawatt hours.
Expressed as a percentage, solar grew by a stunning 103 percent, and wind by over 8 percent.
It’s not shown above, but nuclear power also showed considerable growth in net generation — 8,051 thousand more megawatt hours in 2014 than in 2013. Some environmentalists may have their reservations about it, but they can’t argue that it’s driving the global warming problem.
So what does the future portend? For wind, the gains in 2014 should continue in 2015, said Williams. “We have a very high number of megawatts under construction, and once those are allowed to generate electricity, we’re hoping to see this number go up significantly,” she said. That’s even though the wind production tax credit was only extended through the end of 2014 and is currently expired.
Solar, meanwhile, could pick up its pace even more, in light of evidence that the price of solar panels keeps falling.
In the grand scheme of things, one year — 2014 — only represents a slight nudging of the gigantic ship of U.S. energy in a renewable direction. Even if it grew less, coal is still the No. 1 source of net generation each year in the United States, followed by natural gas. And the numbers for these two sources still dwarf the totals for all renewable sources combined:
Still, there can be no denying that the U.S. energy system is changing, and that renewables — wind and solar — are booming.
Whether they’re doing so fast enough to decarbonize our world before we pass the threshold that would bring on dangerous climate change, however, is another matter.
UPDATE: On Tuesday, the EIA released a look at the sources of new electricity generating capacity scheduled to come online in 2015. And it suggests that this year will look a lot like 2014 — more additions of wind capacity, more additions of solar capacity, and more natural gas, but a decline of coal. Read here.
This is North America if the world's ice sheets all melt. (Technically, some of the inner part of Greenland disappears underwater because the ice sheet has crushed the bedrock below sea level).
Rochester and Toronto become literal seaports as the Gulf of St. Lawrence extends inland. California's Central Valley largely goes underwater, and Arkansas gets literal seaports. I think that North America and South America are cut off...
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Large parts of the South are due to disappear, and yet the folks who live there are the ones promoting this disaster.
History rhymes...
On the bright side, no more Florida!
This is North America if the world's ice sheets all melt. (Technically, some of the inner part of Greenland disappears underwater because the ice sheet has crushed the bedrock below sea level).
Rochester and Toronto become literal seaports as the Gulf of St. Lawrence extends inland. California's Central Valley largely goes underwater, and Arkansas gets literal seaports. I think that North America and South America are cut off...
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
It might also be enough to finally make the folks in Washington DC do something.On the bright side, no more Florida!
Short term solution.... Short snorkel. Long term solution... Longer snorkel.
I'm sure that there are plenty of business interests that are very concerned about climate change. Once it starts hitting their bottom lines, they'll get on Congress's case and things will start to happen.
I just hope it won't be too late, then. I'm worried that we'll go the route of geo-modification, such as trying to put shields in the atmosphere and the like.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
A good article in this month's Harper's, "Rotten Ice - Traveling by Dogsled in the Melting Arctic," by Gretel Ehrlich, summarizes scientists in Greenland as believing that we are WAY past the tipping point. Monstrous-size chunks of glaciers are calving off, the surface of the ice on Greenland is accelerating its softening, and darkening, and absorbing more heat. Natives up there are unable to hunt as they used to even a few years ago due to open seawater where many-feet thick ice used to abound.
Don't read the article. It's too discouraging.
" ... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition."
We can pretty much be assured that once business interests are concerned about climate change, it will be too late. It may already be too late. Some businesses are concerned, but the ones with the power have stacked our legislatures with Republicans whose only concern is to do their bidding. We can be sure they will not listen to anyone else. Republicans have rigged the election so they can block any action in congress and probably reverse what has been done. It would violate their ideology and their religion for today's congress to listen to anyone except the polluters.
Congress? Gimme a bleepin break. There is some hope in Nov.2020 that a new regime will be elected, but even that hope may be in vain. They may even be able to rig the electoral college to take over the White House too. They know that demographics might be against them in the long run, so they have rigged the system to benefit themselves as long as possible.
And the people allow this to happen. Not only do they stay home and don't vote when it counts; they do not seem to be able to make the simplest logical deduction. Even liberals in America are dumb. I mean, gee, the people want democrats, and republicans are elected. Why? gerrymandering. Do they get rid of gerrymandering, then? So that districts are decided by independent commissions, instead of by the politicians themselves in order to perpetuate themselves in office? No, we the people just sit on our asses and allow Republicans to continue ruling America for the benefit of the unrepentant global warmers.
The question is will it be enough to make the folks in America do something like what I suggested above? If not, there's no hope to be placed in "the folks in Washington DC."(B. Butler)
It might also be enough to finally make the folks in Washington DC do something.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 03-16-2015 at 06:30 PM.
andOn the bright side, no more Florida!
There's no hope for the folks in DC / Florida because swami tsunami predicts a flood of ACW warmed ice/water.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
Who could have an interest in stopping or at least slowing global warming? Agribusiness. Entities that depend upon crop yields for their prosperity will not look fondly upon prime farmlands being inundated or desertified. Timber. The giant stands of lumber could be gone if rains fail and forests become steppes. (although Koch Industries owns one of the biggest paper-products businesses, Georgia-Pacific). Real estate developers.
The Defense Department takes global warming seriously. It has enough concerns about military matters without having to face armies of people who must invade other countries who will need new land just to sustain their food needs.
When Southern white people start recognizing that they are getting the shaft, the GOP is done as a political entity, at least in its current political incarnation. That's the difference between a near-fascist America and a new New Deal.Congress? Gimme a bleepin break. There is some hope in Nov.2020 that a new regime will be elected, but even that hope may be in vain. They may even be able to rig the electoral college to take over the White House too. They know that demographics might be against them in the long run, so they have rigged the system to benefit themselves as long as possible.
And the people allow this to happen. Not only do they stay home and don't vote when it counts; they do not seem to be able to make the simplest logical deduction. Even liberals in America are dumb. I mean, gee, the people want democrats, and republicans are elected. Why? gerrymandering. Do they get rid of gerrymandering, then? So that districts are decided by independent commissions, instead of by the politicians themselves in order to perpetuate themselves in office? No, we the people just sit on our asses and allow Republicans to continue ruling America for the benefit of the unrepentant global warmers.
The Hard Right says that when they win once they get to freeze politics except in the direction of their gain of power. That is how many tyrannies begin.
Our political system is broken. People have found the seams in our Constitution and have driven eighteen-wheelers through it. We are going to need major fixes of our Constitutional system.The question is will it be enough to make the folks in America do something like what I suggested above? If not, there's no hope to be placed in "the folks in Washington DC."
Last edited by pbrower2a; 03-17-2015 at 12:13 PM.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Totten Troubles
CNN Reports, Study raises concerns over big, rapidly thinning Antarctic glacier
Investigators have discovered how warm waters are getting near the Totten Glacier, explaining why it has been shrinking faster than expected.
Constitutional Rewrite
I agree. Alas, traditionally you have to have solutions to problems before you can set said solutions in stone with a rewrite of the Constitution. Thus, constitutions and amendments are written on the 4T / 1T cusp, after the period of experimentation and transformation.
This seems problematic this time around.
California Dreaming (of water)
Posted here for discussion purposes. From today's Government Executive.
From the same article, further down.SANTA CRUZ, Calif. — When the rains came in December in this arid beach town about 75 miles south of San Francisco, the only river and reservoir on the western slope of the Santa Cruz Mountains gained enough water to give citizens a welcome break. Water-use restrictions were lifted and life’s rhythms were restored.
Golfers were among those who rejoiced, in anticipation of playing again at the renowned PasaTiempo club, where the fairways had dried to a deep brown as its water allotments were cut by 30 percent.
Santa Cruz had the toughest water restrictions in the Golden State during last year’s severe drought conditions.
The rugged mountains, which separate the city from San Jose and Silicon Valley, have made it too difficult to import water from the north and east, so Santa Cruz is wholly reliant on local sources.
“We are on our own,” Toby Goddard, whose title as administrative services manager in the city’s Water Department does not suggest his power as Santa Cruz’s “water czar,” said in an interview.
In December, rains came to Santa Cruz. Rationing was suspended. But January saw no rain and by March 19 only 3 inches had fallen since the December deluge. No rain was in the forecast, and chances were slim that much would fall before the end of the “wet” season in mid-April.
And so, Goddard said on Wednesday, the rationing regime is being readied again.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
Yes, AGW is gonna gnaw off quite a large chunk of the Gulf coastal states' land mass. Oh, but wait, there's more.
California has some awful strange company on this drought business. Of course Oklahoma will sort of look like Pecos County TX in the future.
New crops for Oklahoma = yucca and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_edible_cactus
The American diet is due for one hell of a change.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP
There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:
"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."
Big trouble in the Golden State as the rainfall conditions of Baja California move north:
Yellow -- abnormally dry (Crescent City, Needles)
Sand -- moderate drought (Blythe)
Orange -- severe drought (Eureka, Santa Rosa, Weed, Barstow, Brawley)
Red -- extreme drought (Chico, San Francisco, San Jose, Monterrey, Riverside, San Diego)
Dark Brown -- exceptional drought (Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, Fresno, Bakersfield, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Lancaster, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Anaheim, Lake Tahoe, Yosemite national park, Kings Canyon National Park, Sequoia National Park)
Reno and Carson City are in areas of exceptional drought.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Less ice in the Arctic as it's all forming on my pond
CNN and various satellites report that Arctic sea ice hits lowest winter maximum on record
At first this might not seem to make sense. North America at least has had an unusually cold winter.
Still, one of the oft noted patterns associated with global warming is a jet stream that wanders north and south more than it has in the past. I have my own conjecture, that if cold air is coming further south than usual, somewhere warm air has got to be getting north in similar measure. Whether it is that simple or not, scientists have been surprised and alarmed by the speed of the arctic ice loss while there has generally been a vicious winter cold streak lately, either here in the states, Europe or Asia.
A simple kitchen counter-top experiment, followed by some conjecture can be pretty scary:
A glass of ice and water on the counter. A thermometer. Watch the temperature of the ice water as it melts. Nothing much happens, as the melting ice maintains the temperature at or slightly above freezing. Then, as the last bit of ice melts, the temperature shoots up.
It's gonna be interesting.
" ... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition."
