Restorationism is the only viable solution. Imagine a future where two children a boy and girl, take a stroll to see the environs of their hometown; they walk through a landscape dominated by advanced dome cities, outside of said cities there are vast fields cultivated to provide self-sufficient food economies, these would be interspersed with settlement compounds for agricultural workers. In many regions there would be a separate domed city that would be located usually at a higher elevation from that of the other cities and settlements; here the local "entrepreneurial elite" and/or the local regional administration and personnel and their families and relations would live. Many Cities would be specialized industrial cities, in these cases there would be outside of the skyline and the main residential and business areas the would be roads connecting the main city with an industrial park which would in many ways be a separate city, filled with factories and tech-production centers, there would be towering skyscrapers consisting of administrative buildings for various enterprises, there would be many such cities both in north American and in vassalized territories.

In pacified lands like in the middle east, the situation would be somewhat different from that outlined above, here for example the two children if they were from a settlement city; would see a landscape dominated by agricultural compounds where they would see Arab Muslim workers farming under the supervision of armed guards, these guards would be detached from stormguard units, or would be paid private guards who would be drawn from nominally retired personnel from the army or Stormguard or sometimes private armed contractors, all would be military trained though. In many regions the children would see strange vehicles incrementally moving through the landscape, systematically sprinkling the ground, these would actually be agricultural reclamation vehicles which would be the most visible aspect of the project to return the Mideast's landscape to the fertile condition it was in ancient and medieval times. At agricultural compounds there would be separate smaller compounds for the armed supervisors and guards; guards would operate in shifts. In the middle east Muslim settlements would be distributed in such a way in that they would economically provide food agricultural and industrial resources to the local administrative city (which would be populated by Anglophone, Latin American, African, and Israeli settlers, etc), the resources would of course then be either utilized by the inhabitants of the administrative cities or said resources would be shipped to the Americas. Restorationism's ultimate goal is to create a civilizational reconciliation and superstate encompassing all Anglophone countries (including commonwealth countries like Australia, new Zealand and the UK but not India or the Philippines), all of Latin America and the entirety of the middle east and north Africa as far east as Iran and Afghanistan. This would provide a basis for an entirely new era in human history both politically, socially and in the civilizational history of the human race.

Mr. Butler suggested that the greenhouse gas crisis might ease enough through a consensus powering a market-based transition toward green energy, and that might take some of the steam out of this 4T.

Of course, the global warming crisis is just one aspect of this 4T that threatens us unless action is taken. A political divide controlled by corrupt big-money powers facilitating increasing poverty and inequality are among the other aspects of the crisis.

It's possible that alternative energy may progress enough to lessen the global warming threat's impact on the political crisis. Progress is happening in solar energy production, and some conservatives support government policies that encourage alternative energy. There is still a red and blue divide on this however, and the big money fossil fuel interests are fighting back. The people even in red states often support alternative energy policies, but the allies of the fossil fuel barons are in office in red and purple/blue states since the 2010 and 2014 blowouts. So progress is still unclear.



States adopting Renewable Portfolio Standards:
mandated: WA OR CA HI NV AZ MT CO NM TX KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH PA NC MD DE NJ DC NY CT RI MA NH ME
19 blue states (almost all), plus 6 purple states and 5 red states
non-mandated: UT ND SD OK IN WV VA VT 6 red states, 1 purple, 1 blue
none: ID WY AK NE AR LA MS AL TN KY GA SC FL 12 red states, 1 purple state.

(quote)
So far, 29 states have implemented Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) programs that require increased production of energy from renewable sources such as solar, wind, geothermal and biomass. They’ve been adopted in red states and blue – from California to Texas to Maine – through democratic processes and with popular support....

A Bloomberg article released Tuesday details how the oil and gas industry, through some self-described free market organizations that they fund, are trying to engineer a legislative massacre of these policies in more than a dozen states.

The groups may sound familiar: American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), which is currently pushing legislation around the country that would mandate the teaching of climate change denial in public school systems, and The Heartland Institute, which ran a billboard campaign last year comparing global warming "admitters" to Osama bin Laden and Charles Manson. Both have long opposed sensible energy policies. And their funders will sound familiar, too: the oil, gas and coal industries and their owners like the Koch Brothers....

In Texas – a state deeply rooted in oil and gas, where an ALEC-backed bill has been introduced to eliminate the state’s RPS entirely ...– renewable energy is booming. Texas blew past the RPS goal set for 2015, and now more than 1,300 companies employ more than 100,000 in industries directly and indirectly related to renewable energy. The state’s own Republican Comptroller has noted that, “After the RPS was implemented Texas wind corporations and utilities invested $1 billion in wind power, creating jobs…and increasing the rural tax base.”

Colorado’s RPS, which is also being targeted by ALEC as well, has been very successful. The American Wind Energy Association estimates that the state’s RPS is supporting at least 5,000 direct and indirect jobs and generating a billion dollars in annual wages along with millions in leasing revenue for landowners who benefit from the policy. Between 2006 and 2011, the Denver-metro area saw a 35% increase in direct employment growth in the clean energy sector; today more people are employed by the solar industry than the coal mining or steel manufacturing industries.

So you can see why some in the oil, gas and coal industry might be getting nervous.

We shouldn’t perpetuate our pollution problems by propping up the 20th century economy with fossil fuel subsidies -- payments the industry clearly doesn't need. We should instead be building the 21st century economy by supporting clean, low-carbon energy. But groups like ALEC are trying to turn back the clock and preserve the “unlevel playing field” the fossil fuel industry has enjoyed for over 100 years.

One of the things I've learned over the last 30 years of watching, pushing and fighting various environmental laws is that nothing is ever final. When you lose, there's always tomorrow. Unfortunately, that's how these oil and gas companies see things, too. And even more unfortunately, when they lose, they always have the money to come back and swing harder.....
(unquote)
http://www.edf.org/blog/2013/04/26/o...newable-energy

Battle lines are being drawn, and how the 4T plays out on this issue will be decided in the years ahead. You'll note that I have predicted in my 1997 book and both before and since then that a green energy boom will occur, ramping up especially in the late 2010s. So I can predict this, and yet still claim that the 4T is not over. In fact, my prediction in my book, and both before and since, has also always been that the crisis will come by the mid 2020s, that it could splinter the USA, and that it could be severe. This prediction of mine, which has also been made by other astrologers for decades, predates the S&H books, which only confirm the predictions of the astrologers. Apparently, a green energy boom will not stop the barons from trying to control our country and block energy and other progress. And obviously, they have the power as recently as Nov. 2014 to put their Party in office to help them to do this.

Analyzing this map, although the red and blue gap is by no means absolute, it still remains:

10,000 + solar jobs: CA-- 1 blue, 0 red, 0 purple
7500 to 10,000: AZ MA 1 red 1 blue
5000 to 7499: NV TX NC NY NJ-- 2 blue, 2 purple, 1 red
2500 to 4999: OH FL CO MO IL PA GA-- 2 blue, 2 red, 3 purple
1000 to 2499: OR WA UT NM LA MN WI MI IN TN VA MD CT VT HI-- 9 blue, 4 red, 2 purple
500 to 999: ID KS OK AR IA KY AL SC NH DC-- 7 red, 2 blue, 1 purple
- 500: AK MT WY ND SD NB MS WV RI ME DE-- 8 red, 3 blue

Obviously, the most populous and the most southern states have an advantage when it comes to raw numbers of solar energy jobs, and these are often red states. And yet the blue states are doing better overall anyway.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I feel the same. We had a window, but the leaders we needed to pull us into the frame were either otherwise engaged or duplicitous. So here we are. Things are only kinda-sorta bad, so we're only kinda-sorta mad. The electronic circus is in full bloom, with the Millennials so engaged with their technology-induced virtual life that they have a hard time missing the real one they are kinda-sorta living. It's even possible that they could live and die without really exiting their cocoons, all else being equal.

But of course, all else is not equal. The climate will change, regardless of its status on Twitter or the number of followers it has on Facebook. Even Instagram won't be able to apply enough beautiful sunsets to make it go dormant. The economy isn't killing them either, so this next confrontation may be on several fronts. Good. Sorry I'll miss it though.

Are you planning on dying before this 4T ends in 2028-29?

Look for the next Green Awakening starting no sooner than 2046.

A Bloomberg article released Tuesday details how the oil and gas industry, through some self-described free market organizations that they fund, are trying to engineer a legislative massacre of these policies in more than a dozen states.

The groups may sound familiar: American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), which is currently pushing legislation around the country that would mandate the teaching of climate change denial in public school systems, and The Heartland Institute, which ran a billboard campaign last year comparing global warming "admitters" to Osama bin Laden and Charles Manson. Both have long opposed sensible energy policies. And their funders will sound familiar, too: the oil, gas and coal industries and their owners like the Koch Brothers.

With this new campaign, though, they are not influencing legislation to fill young minds with false propaganda or attacking climate legislation. They're attacking renewable energy. Why? Apparently, an industry that the naysayers loved to call a loser is now threatening fossil fuel profits.

More cause to loathe the Koch syndicate. "Free market" ideology has just shown itself compatible with the shackling of minds.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Restorationism is the only viable solution.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Which is exactly as I predicted. Neptune in Pisces is not a condition astrologically that indicates decisive action.

I… Um… Remain unconvinced.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I feel the same. We had a window, but the leaders we needed to pull us into the frame were either otherwise engaged or duplicitous. So here we are. Things are only kinda-sorta bad, so we're only kinda-sorta mad. The electronic circus is in full bloom, with the Millennials so engaged with their technology-induced virtual life that they have a hard time missing the real one they are kinda-sorta living. It's even possible that they could live and die without really exiting their cocoons, all else being equal.

But of course, all else is not equal. The climate will change, regardless of its status on Twitter or the number of followers it has on Facebook. Even Instagram won't be able to apply enough beautiful sunsets to make it go dormant. The economy isn't killing them either, so this next confrontation may be on several fronts. Good. Sorry I'll miss it though.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

It is crucial to recognize that there will be no Green or any next Awakening without a successful 4T Crisis.

I’m not sure of the rhythms of the turnings, that they are intact and rolling. When I first stepped into the theory, the way I thought it was supposed to work, it took four generations to cycle through the change. New values were proclaimed in the Awakening. Compromisers haggled and argued during the Unraveling as the new guard pushed for change while the old guard resisted, not getting anywhere but exploring the issues verbally. Come the Crisis, violence erupted and the change comes, not quite as anticipated, greater than anticipated. After upheaval, the First Turning brings a rigid enforcement of the new values.

I’m currently seeing a GI - Boomer anomaly. The GIs were truly enthusiastic about Big Government and Big Change. By God, if that little old ram wants to punch a whole in a dam, head for the high ground cause he was going to get it done. At the same time the Blue Boomers saw big problems that needed to be solved. The guys carried live draft cards, the girls coat hangers, the blacks had their own set of rest rooms while the streams stank. The Boomers knew it was wrong. The GI’s, if you yelled and screamed and protested loudly enough, knew it was wrong too.

We didn’t argue about it for a generation before starting the revolution. The culture was transformed a couple of generations early. It was big, it was rude, it was abrupt, and it did not come without a cost. The Red counter awakening was and remains in part a stubborn dazed dose of Future Shock, a clinging to what is left of a familiar that had been torn apart.

So I’m not at all sure we haven’t spent our potential for change. The Xers and Millenials are still sick of the strident abrasive Blue Boomers, and even the Blue Boomers are sick of themselves. We know what it takes to move and shake the establishment, and danged if we have the energy to shake ourselves awake again. Yes, we can snicker at younger generations more engrossed in video games than activist politics, but I don’t know how much better most of the old folks are.

The question to me is whether we have a spiral of rhetoric building into a spiral of violence. Are Al Gore and Elizabeth Warren potential Grey Champions building up a tidal wave of support for inevitable and overwhelming change, or are they voices crying in the wilderness to a great extent unheard?

During the Industrial Age, the Awakening was the time of preparation while the Crisis was the time of doing. During the Industrial Age, it took violence to subdue and overthrow the establishment powers. True transformation required wholesale killing. If there was to be a major internal transformation there was a revolution or civil war.

Is this the Information Age? Are steam power, printed information and chemical weapons giving way to renewable power, digital information and weapons of mass destruction? Is it possible that the rules are changing? Is it possible that the earth shaking transformation we are looking for isn’t where we are expecting it? If it is no longer going to be about gunfire, revolution and civil war, might the Awakenings become the time of transformation rather than the Crisis?

I’ll leave it as a question to ponder. It is certainly too soon to proclaim it so.

But the shorter term question is whether we have a spiral of rhetoric building towards a possible spiral of violence. I am certainly not seeing the spiral of violence. After both OKC and September 11th the American People firmly rejected terrorism as a means of forcing domestic change. These days, modern values strongly hold that the terrorists are the bad guys. This makes it difficult to launch a successful spiral of violence. People trying to orchestrate modern equivalents of the Boston Tea Party, Boston Massacre or Harpers Valley raid are fighting the tide.

And if the violence isn’t spiraling, the rhetoric isn’t getting far beyond tepid rehashing the Culture Wars, revisiting issues settled during the GI - Boomer maelstrom, with idle dreams of either pushing back or moving on. I don’t see any movement there. There is no political energy at anywhere near the voltage of the 1960s. There are no irresistible forces available to throw at the old and now immovable objects.

Anyway, I can only say what I’m not seeing. If we are going to have a true time of change, be it best described as Awakening or Crisis, we need a spiral of rhetoric expanding to an overwhelming scale. In past Crises, the spiral of rhetoric spilled into a spiral of violence.

I’m not seeing either yet. One can never exclude the possibility of a new catalyst or trigger event. It would have to be pretty substantial to break the deadlock in Congress. I’m not holding my breath. If it comes, it comes.

But right now I see no big waves rolling in from the horizon. Eric, Cynic and many others will continue to see their own values as the only true values and anticipate, as in the Cabaret song, The Future Belongs to Me. I don’t anticipate locked values unlocking, and am not in a mood to try just now. I think a lot of us are seeing needs to act on division of wealth and the ecology. It is hard think mankind can ignore these problems indefinitely.

But I’m not seeing anything on the horizon.

Bob, interesting observations. I think your thinking is somewhat constrained by the S&H paradigm in which they are placed. I have looked at ways to empirically validate the existence of the S&H cycle for 15 years and have failed to do so. I no longer think they got the basic long-term cycle in Anglo-American history right. Based on my work, the cycle with the best empirical support is the secular cycle. David Fisher focuses on this cycle using price as his empirical measure in The Great Wave, which some here have read. Peter Turchin traces out eight secular cycles/great waves in his Secular Cycles. historian like Barbara Tuchman's A Distant Mirror and the massive amount written on "the Crisis of the 17th century" have described the Crisis portion of secular cycles. Jack Goldstone formulated a theory of such crisis with considerable explanatory power.

One of the empirical measures of secular cycles is economic inequality. It peaks at the crisis period. In agrarian times inequality was closely tied to price, so peaks are seen around 1320 and 1620 and 1800 in the UK. In America inequality seems to have been declining from a higher level through the late 18th cent. to about 1820, rising to about 1910, falling to about 1960 and rising since.

In Turchin's account both conservatives and liberals are right as far as causes of the inequality problem of today. Tax cuts AND immigration are both key engines of inequality. Mechanisms are provided that explain how rising inequality occurs. Mechanisms are provided that explain how rising inequality in agrarian societies eventually leads to state collapse, high levels of intra-elite violence and reduction in elite numbers. This last thing is what produces falling inequality in both agrarian and industrial societies. It is accomplished by a combination of elites killing each other and emergence of new strongmen (e.g. Augustus, Henry VII, FDR).

Mechanisms for how a trend reversal from rising to falling inequality can occur without mass slaughter of elites are not provided. What is offered is a verbal explanation that involves elite fears of mass rebellion invoked by the high levels in internal violence in the teens often tinged with radicalism occurring at the same time as revolution in Russia. These fears somehow encouraged elites to enact policies that would reduce their wealth and influence. I find this hard to believe since America saw a great deal more internal unrest in the 1860's, including civil war, that had no impact at all on proliferating elites and rising inequality. If the early 20th century violence caused elite panic leading to a national income tax and curtailing immigration, why were elites so blasé about looming Civil War in the 1950's?

In America we don't have elites slaughtering each other Game of Thrones style. We did it through confiscatory taxation, sharp reducing in immigration (reducing labor supply) and government economic management deliberately biased in favor of workers over capital. Why did elites sign on to this?

My gut feeling is a new class of elite arose from the what once was called "the middle classes" or the bourgeois, call them the Mandarins after the Chinese social class. The elite status of mandarins comes from elite education and successful professional careers rather than success in business. Both are also hereditary. Successful rebellions of commoners are essentially unknown in history--unless they are elite-led. The trend reversal in the early 20th century that culminated in the New Deal and WW II economic policies were generated an electoral commoner rebellion led by "the Progressives", members of the bourgeois appalled by the social consequences of industrialization, who led a political movement that gave us the Income tax, direct election of senators, women's suffrage and prohibition. Also achieved was immigration restriction (I don't know the history of this). They came from both parties and eventually played a major role in the New Deal. In the aftermath were had a new society with two kinds of elites, business-derived one, represented by the Republican party (who had been on the losing side in the secular cycle crisis resolution) and the new Mandarins (represented by the Democratic party). Today both kinds are full-fledged members of the elites and will look out for elite interests. Neither side wants to curtail immigration or raise taxes on their income (Mandarins support modestly higher tax rates--but only on marginal income above theirs, Business elites support only those anti-immigration actions that are known to have no impact on the labor supply).

Perhaps a new category of elite will arise, neither commercial nor educational in nature. Lacking wealth they can lead a commoner movement calling for confiscatory taxes on the rich, immigration restriction and economic policies that benefit rank-and-file Americans.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

Bob, interesting observations. I think your thinking is somewhat constrained by the S&H paradigm in which they are placed. I have looked at ways to empirically validate the existence of the S&H cycle for 15 years and have failed to do so. I no longer think they got the basic long-term cycle in Anglo-American history right. Based on my work, the cycle with the best empirical support is the secular cycle. David Fisher focuses on this cycle using price as his empirical measure in The Great Wave, which some here have read. Peter Turchin traces out eight secular cycles/great waves in his Secular Cycles. historian like Barbara Tuchman's A Distant Mirror and the massive amount written on "the Crisis of the 17th century" have described the Crisis portion of secular cycles. Jack Goldstone formulated a theory of such crisis with considerable explanatory power.

One aspect of the generational cycle has been that in most times there are but three active adult generations. With only three generations, typical of a model in which generations lose all influence around age 70, the absence of a generational influence shapes the character of a time. Thus Highs imply the absence of an adult Idealist component of life and a fossilization of culture; Awakenings imply the absence of a Reactive component of life and the absence of ice-water realism; Unraveling eras imply the absence of the Civic component of life and the lack of people who can promote institutional solutions; Crisis eras imply the absence of the Adaptive contribution to public life and a tendency to fanaticism.

Elderly GIs threw a monkey wrench into the model by remaining active and involved in public life into their eighties, and often helping to extend their lifespans by doing so. The Silent have followed suit. I see no reason to believe that the Boomers will fail to take care of themselves; physical activity deep into old age is good for staying mentally active late in life.

OK, I doubt that octogenarian Progressives would have shown any soft line toward fascists any more than octogenarian Silent adults show empathy for ISIS. Maybe Progressives would have seen something wrong with the incarceration of people for Japanese origin and might have toned down some of the demonization of nations in American propaganda.

One of the empirical measures of secular cycles is economic inequality. It peaks at the crisis period. In agrarian times inequality was closely tied to price, so peaks are seen around 1320 and 1620 and 1800 in the UK. In America inequality seems to have been declining from a higher level through the late 18th to about 1820, rising to about 1910, falling to about 1960 and rising since.

In Turchin's account both conservatives and liberals are right as far as causes of the inequality problem of today. Tax cuts AND immigration are both key engines of inequality. Mechanisms are provided that explain how rising inequality occurs. Mechanisms are provided that explain how rising inequality in agrarian societies eventually leads to state collapse, high levels of intra-elite violence and reduction in elite numbers. This last thing is what produces falling inequality in both agrarian and industrial societies. It is accomplished by a combination of elites killing each other and emergence of new strongmen (e.g. Augustus, Henry VII, FDR).

Beyond any doubt, economic inequality does not create mass happiness or domestic peace. As shown in the sleazy 1920s and the sordid Double-Zero decade, economic inequality creates the illusion of prosperity while undermining such real prosperity as exists. The three-year economic meltdown that began in the fourth quarter of 1929 solved the problem of severe economic inequality in most of America. The one-and-a-half-year economic meltdown that began in the fourth quarter of 2007 ended with the rescue of economic elites who used their still-substantial economic power to buy the political system.

We may have solved an economic problem by empowering people who use a Crisis to establish a militaristic, plutocratic oligarchy in which the formal system of Constitutional government remains but the politics are fixed. Know well: wars and colonial adventures can be exceedingly profitable.

Mechanisms for how a trend reversal from rising to falling inequality can occur without mass slaughter of elites are not provided. What is offered is a verbal explanation that involves elite fears of mass rebellion invoked by the high levels in internal violence in the teens often tinged with radicalism occurring at the same time as revolution in Russia. These fears somehow encouraged elites to enact policies that would reduce their wealth and influence. I find this hard to believe since America saw a great deal more internal unrest in the 1860's, including civil war, that had no impact at all on proliferating elites and rising inequality. If the early 20th century violence caused elite panic leading to a national income tax and curtailing immigration, why were elites so blasé about looming Civil War in the 1950's?

In the 1950s, Americans accepted that the Soviet Union and the Communist movement were the menace.... but that such was more a rivalry than a war. But nobody wanted another frontal war in Europe. American leadership shored up shaky regimes and so did Soviet leadership. There was one nasty proxy war in Korea that the Soviet Union tried to avoid appearing involved in.

In America we don't have elites slaughtering each other Game of Thrones style.

It's when elites start turning on each other that the common man has some ability to shape events. But when the elites are in lockstep as today in America, the common man is effectively shut out of political life. So far I see no obvious conflict between big landowners, tycoons and financiers, the executive elite, or even organized crime. Such conflicts as we now see are between left-leaning media and right-leaning media... Sean Hannity vs. Rachel Maddow.

Originally Posted by B Butler

I… Um… Remain unconvinced.

I don't expect convinced materialists of one degree or another to believe in astrology, but nevertheless it is a tool that works, and has been demonstrated to work. It jells with the saeculum to a great degree. So that's two cyclic theories that line up and say exactly the same thing regarding what is going to happen and when.

I’m not sure of the rhythms of the turnings, that they are intact and rolling. When I first stepped into the theory, the way I thought it was supposed to work, it took four generations to cycle through the change. New values were proclaimed in the Awakening. Compromisers haggled and argued during the Unraveling as the new guard pushed for change while the old guard resisted, not getting anywhere but exploring the issues verbally. Come the Crisis, violence erupted and the change comes, not quite as anticipated, greater than anticipated. After upheaval, the First Turning brings a rigid enforcement of the new values.

But the authors put in an "anomaly" that is confusing things now. They did not entitle the 1850s as part of the Crisis. But it WAS. The same situation is confusing us now, and it's the same position astrologically. A Crisis need not consist of violence and drastic change in all of its years. Even in the 1930s there were periods of relative calm and recovery. And we here know about the double rhythm, which astrology also confirms and elucidates; and that indicates that we are in 1850s redux.

I’m currently seeing a GI - Boomer anomaly. The GIs were truly enthusiastic about Big Government and Big Change. By God, if that little old ram wants to punch a whole in a dam, head for the high ground cause he was going to get it done. At the same time the Blue Boomers saw big problems that needed to be solved. The guys carried live draft cards, the girls coat hangers, the blacks had their own set of rest rooms while the streams stank. The Boomers knew it was wrong. The GI’s, if you yelled and screamed and protested loudly enough, knew it was wrong too.

We didn’t argue about it for a generation before starting the revolution. The culture was transformed a couple of generations early. It was big, it was rude, it was abrupt, and it did not come without a cost. The Red counter awakening was and remains in part a stubborn dazed dose of Future Shock, a clinging to what is left of a familiar that had been torn apart.

So I’m not at all sure we haven’t spent our potential for change. The Xers and Millenials are still sick of the strident abrasive Blue Boomers, and even the Blue Boomers are sick of themselves. We know what it takes to move and shake the establishment, and danged if we have the energy to shake ourselves awake again. Yes, we can snicker at younger generations more engrossed in video games than activist politics, but I don’t know how much better most of the old folks are.

I can't relate to the idea that we have spent our potential for change, when we have wallowed in the status quo since even fairly early in the Awakening, and have indulged and avoided the issues in all the years since. There's no excuse for people to be "sick of abrasive Blue Boomers" when they should be sick of the endless delay, deception and avoidance of action.

The question to me is whether we have a spiral of rhetoric building into a spiral of violence. Are Al Gore and Elizabeth Warren potential Grey Champions building up a tidal wave of support for inevitable and overwhelming change, or are they voices crying in the wilderness to a great extent unheard?

During the Industrial Age, the Awakening was the time of preparation while the Crisis was the time of doing. During the Industrial Age, it took violence to subdue and overthrow the establishment powers. True transformation required wholesale killing. If there was to be a major internal transformation there was a revolution or civil war.

Is this the Information Age? Are steam power, printed information and chemical weapons giving way to renewable power, digital information and weapons of mass destruction? Is it possible that the rules are changing? Is it possible that the earth shaking transformation we are looking for isn’t where we are expecting it? If it is no longer going to be about gunfire, revolution and civil war, might the Awakenings become the time of transformation rather than the Crisis?

I’ll leave it as a question to ponder. It is certainly too soon to proclaim it so.

But the shorter term question is whether we have a spiral of rhetoric building towards a possible spiral of violence. I am certainly not seeing the spiral of violence. After both OKC and September 11th the American People firmly rejected terrorism as a means of forcing domestic change. These days, modern values strongly hold that the terrorists are the bad guys. This makes it difficult to launch a successful spiral of violence. People trying to orchestrate modern equivalents of the Boston Tea Party, Boston Massacre or Harpers Valley raid are fighting the tide.

A Crisis need not be violent, if we have progressed and embraced, to an extent, the new blue/green values of greenpeace. That includes an opposition to guns too. That is an optimistic idea, but a possible one. If it is no longer to be about guns and war, then the Crisis might still be a time of transformation. Transformation does not equal violence and guns.

Awakenings have always transformed our culture and values. There was nothing more "transformational" about the previous one compared to earlier ones in that respect. In fact, it was front-loaded and mostly over after its first 6 years. That too was indicated unmistakably by the cosmic tides. The next Awakening, also to be front-loaded by the same indicators repeating, will echo the previous one, and won't start until the mid-2040s. There's no use hoping for something that won't come until millennials are well into middle age. That will be too late for the change that is needed now if our nation is to ever progress again.

If there's an anomaly, it's how the last Awakening burned itself out too soon and left a legacy of division. But that fits the double rhythm alternating between domestic and foreign-centered crises. And most of all, the Xers and Millennials ignored or rejected much of what the Awakening has taught, as is demonstrated on this forum. What needs to happen is that the Awakening and its ideals need to be remembered, so they can guide us and empower us forward into the battle with the powers-that-be during the remainder of this 4T. And that battle will be revving up gradually from now on until the floodgates burst sometime in the 2020s. And the flood tide will not recede until 2028-29, and even then activism and progress will not cease during the next 1T. That too is part of the double rhythm.

And if the violence isn’t spiraling, the rhetoric isn’t getting far beyond tepid rehashing the Culture Wars, revisiting issues settled during the GI - Boomer maelstrom, with idle dreams of either pushing back or moving on. I don’t see any movement there. There is no political energy at anywhere near the voltage of the 1960s. There are no irresistible forces available to throw at the old and now immovable objects.

The culture wars are over, and the dominant concerns now are expressed among folks like those protesting the low pay they get, as in the demonstrations this week.

Anyway, I can only say what I’m not seeing. If we are going to have a true time of change, be it best described as Awakening or Crisis, we need a spiral of rhetoric expanding to an overwhelming scale. In past Crises, the spiral of rhetoric spilled into a spiral of violence.

I’m not seeing either yet. One can never exclude the possibility of a new catalyst or trigger event. It would have to be pretty substantial to break the deadlock in Congress. I’m not holding my breath. If it comes, it comes.

But right now I see no big waves rolling in from the horizon. Eric, Cynic and many others will continue to see their own values as the only true values and anticipate, as in the Cabaret song, The Future Belongs to Me. I don’t anticipate locked values unlocking, and am not in a mood to try just now. I think a lot of us are seeing needs to act on division of wealth and the ecology. It is hard think mankind can ignore these problems indefinitely.

"A lot of us" includes me, of course.

But I’m not seeing anything on the horizon.

And I can only offer my insight into why that is the case. My predictions work. If you remain "unconvinced," that is your priviledge. But there's no real need to wonder, or not to see where we are. I have told you.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

I don't expect convinced materialists of one degree or another to believe in astrology, but nevertheless it is a tool that works, and has been demonstrated to work. It jells with the saeculum to a great degree. So that's two cyclic theories that line up and say exactly the same thing regarding what is going to happen and when.

The movements of the planets are at most timing mechanisms. They usual time between the creation of early-childhood memories within a society and their extinction are typically about seven cycles of Jupiter within the sky, three cycles of Saturn within the sky, or one cycle of Uranus. One cycle of Jupiter is roughly the completion of K-12 education and two roughly from birth to complete adulthood (full physical maturity in people is to be experienced around 24 or 25 even if one's intellectual development is complete around 20, the base of IQ measurements); one cycle of Saturn is roughly the length of the time from birth to completion of certain professional preparations (medicine and law); one cycle of Uranus is a long human lifespan.



These were the stars overhead at the time at which I was born where I was born -- roughly. Unremarkable constellation -- Canes Venatici. Maybe such indicates that I would have dogs around me most of my life. Maybe not. The sun was in front of the easternmost part of the ecliptic within the boundaries of Ophiuchus. I have handled snakes, but not often. I won't forget the feeling. The sign above me (and I know that it was there then because it was in a font from the 1930s) said "No Smoking by Order of City Fire Marshal" when I later saw it, and it looked faded as sign paper looked after the appropriate time would allow.

But the authors put in an "anomaly" that is confusing things now. They did not entitle the 1850s as part of the Crisis. But it WAS. The same situation is confusing us now, and it's the same position astrologically. A Crisis need not consist of violence and drastic change in all of its years. Even in the 1930s there were periods of relative calm and recovery. And we here know about the double rhythm, which astrology also confirms and elucidates; and that indicates that we are in 1850s redux.

I would draw the same conclusion without astrology. In the 1850s a reactionary elite sought to expand slavery, even presenting it as a boon to humanity. The Right now offers pure plutocracy as the best thing that could ever happen to people other themselves -- or else. Such would be consistent with a dictatorial new order, effectively a single-Party system in which the opposition is permanently marginalized. That's how the Communist party does things in China.

Imagine a Koch stooge winning the 2016 election as President and the Republican Party consolidating strength in all branches of the federal government and most state governments. We will all know that we have big trouble when in his inaugural address the President calls upon us to suffer so that there can be economic growth, and that the greater the suffering and the more complete the suppression of contrary thought, the greater will be the progress.

For many such would be the wrong sort of progress. If you thought campus unrest in the 1960s was unsettling, then wait until you see it during the attempt to consolidate absolute plutocracy. Maybe some state governors would refuse to suppress the dissent. Some would call in the National Guard -- with live bullets and shoot-to-kill orders. Different responses in neighboring states -- let us say Iowa and Minnesota -- could spark civil war. Don't fool yourself; the Right would scrap federalism when highly-centralized government would better suit its desires.

That is when secession begins with states in the Northeast and the West Coast seceding. We would see allusions to Patrick Henry and Samuel Adams when the President calls for the dissolution of State governments. Paradoxically the only former Confederate state that would secede quickly would be Virginia. Much of the South is practically fascist anyway. There are exceptions, of course -- Greater Atlanta, Greater Memphis, Greater New Orleans, and some of the fast-growing cities of North Carolina. Someone who calls for a brutal crackdown might not want to stay long in Atlanta, Raleigh, or even Little Rock.

I can't relate to the idea that we have spent our potential for change, when we have wallowed in the status quo since even fairly early in the Awakening, and have indulged and avoided the issues in all the years since. There's no excuse for people to be "sick of abrasive Blue Boomers" when they should be sick of the endless delay, deception and avoidance of action.

Well, there is Keith Olbermann... Beware, though. Crisis eras can bring out the worst. For some a Crisis is an excuse to grab everything by forcing everyone else to sell out cheaply. For some it is an excuse for a Dirty War.

A Crisis need not be violent, if we have progressed and embraced, to an extent, the new blue/green values of greenpeace. That includes an opposition to guns too. That is an optimistic idea, but a possible one. If it is no longer to be about guns and war, then the Crisis might still be a time of transformation. Transformation does not equal violence and guns.

Elections of 2010 and 2014 have shown that America has not progressed. Not only have people accepted Pascal's wager that a life of misery on behalf of economic elites for the promise of a glorious Afterlife available only to the compliant (with Hell to those who refuse to take the wager); they have often decided that such is the commitment that all of us must take.

Awakenings have always transformed our culture and values. There was nothing more "transformational" about the previous one compared to earlier ones in that respect. In fact, it was front-loaded and mostly over after its first 6 years. That too was indicated unmistakably by the cosmic tides. The next Awakening, also to be front-loaded by the same indicators repeating, will echo the previous one, and won't start until the mid-2040s. There's no use hoping for something that won't come until millennials are well into middle age. That will be too late for the change that is needed now if our nation is to ever progress again.

If the Right gets its way the American awakening of the 2040s will be unusually muted -- as stale as Awakening eras in most Commie states in the 1960s and 1970s.

If there's an anomaly, it's how the last Awakening burned itself out too soon and left a legacy of division. But that fits the double rhythm alternating between domestic and foreign-centered crises. And most of all, the Xers and Millennials ignored or rejected much of what the Awakening has taught, as is demonstrated on this forum. What needs to happen is that the Awakening and its ideals need to be remembered, so they can guide us and empower us forward into the battle with the powers-that-be during the remainder of this 4T. And that battle will be revving up gradually from now on until the floodgates burst sometime in the 2020s. And the flood tide will not recede until 2028-29, and even then activism and progress will not cease during the next 1T. That too is part of the double rhythm.

"Blue Boomers" like us need to offer something new. Generation X got practically no good from the Boom Awakening. The Millennial Generation has yet to have a distinctive culture... let them develop theirs. The best that Blue Boomers can do is to call upon history to avoid the worst (like the Nazi Regeneracy of about 80 years ago in Germany) and seek the best. If X and Millennial adults don't want Boom culture -- then give them something else. Encourage them to turn off televised sports and instead watch Don Giovanni. Push great literature with relevant lessons in school. Does anyone think that Big Band music might be well timed for a revival among Millennial young adults as they are at the same stage of development as GIs?

X and Millennials will never be Boomers. really, that is a good thing. Boomers would have never have been the right generation to storm Guadalcanal or Omaha Beach -- or for that matter, the Bastille.

The culture wars are over, and the dominant concerns now are expressed among folks like those protesting the low pay they get, as in the demonstrations this week.

Over? They seem to be heating up. They may be between wise people and ignoramuses. Ignoramuses can fight hard, too; they do not fight in accordance with Queensbury rules, let alone Robert's Rules of Order.

But if your "natural enemies" - based on the usual criteria; i.e., race, ethnicity (aka citizenship status), sexual orientation etc. - are made to suffer even more than you figure to, then yes, scores of millions of Americans will be down for it.

And televised sports as a paean to Blue Boomer culture?

Originally Posted by B Butler

Telsa is going to be building batteries. This could be the sort of transforming infrastructure building project one would expect of a First Turning. I'm still thinking we are whiffing on the Fourth Turning, that the powers-that-be are managing to stalemate any chance at a political and values upheaval. Doesn't mean everything has to stagnate.

It will, of course, take a lot of batteries. Then again, 1T infrastructure projects can be formidable.

Batteries have limitations that make them impractical as storage at the societal level. We'll need several overlaid technologies that can augment one another, with storage as a last resort. The east coast will be getting wind farms off-shore, because the wing blows there most of the time. The same may apply in tornado alley, if protection methods will allow them to exist there in one piece. Soar will be installed where the sun shines, and geothermal where the geography permits. There are other technologies that are only ignore because they are expensive. So solution s exist, and most will be used somewhere. We just need the motivation, and we're not motivated yet.

As usual, we do things when we are forced into a situation where we either do them or suffer an even worse fate.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

But if your "natural enemies" - based on the usual criteria; i.e., race, ethnicity (aka citizenship status), sexual orientation etc. - are made to suffer even more than you figure to, then yes, scores of millions of Americans will be down for it.

Schadenfreude is a tawdry substitute for happiness. It's impossible to create mass suffering without getting some of it oneself -- unless one is a sadist or sociopath.

And televised sports as a paean to Blue Boomer culture?

Opiate of the masses.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

Are you planning on dying before this 4T ends in 2028-29?

I'll be 81 in 2028, so being dead is a distinct possibility.

Originally Posted by Eric ...

Look for the next Green Awakening starting no sooner than 2046.

I'll be 99 in 2046. Death is a near certainty.

M. Brower, I do think "the Boom Awakening is over" (although remember it was at least as much the Silent Gen. Awakening), because Awakenings always end and move on. But the ideals of the Awakening are supposed to be realized in the following 4T. So some aspects of the Awakening need to be kept alive and to guide us, not to continue the culture wars or the clash between the cultures of generations, but the visions of the consciousness revolution that still illuminate the issues we face today-- and have yet to be dealt with since the early days of the Awakening. First and foremost, to learn to care for the Earth in the way we live, move and build our world. And second, a world at peace and a great society to which all classes and races and genders have full access. And third, quality of life priorities and personalization/fulfillment returned to the way we build and design our society, our work and our dwelling places, over merely-material growth-- which feeds back to #1 for sure, and maybe #2 as well, since material greed is the primary motivation behind the inequality promoted by our opponents.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I'll be 81 in 2028, so being dead is a distinct possibility.



I'll be 99 in 2046. Death is a near certainty.

According to the US government actuarial tables, a 68-year-old American male has a 50-50 chance of living another 15 1/2 years. That would be making it to 83-84. Assuming that you keep in shape, are a normal weight (which you were when I met you in person nearly 10 years ago) and don't smoke, that brings the odds more in your favor.

So yes, death prior to 81 is always a real possibility, but the odds are, barring some cataclysm, that you will make it to 85 and see at least some of the 1T.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

M. Brower, I do think "the Boom Awakening is over" (although remember it was at least as much the Silent Gen. Awakening), because Awakenings always end and move on. But the ideals of the Awakening are supposed to be realized in the following 4T.

There was the Aquarian Awakening... and the right-wing awakening of chest-pumping nationalism, tax revolts, and religious fundamentalism. The latter Awakening has much more current influence upon American political life. Such should be obvious. It is ugly; Awakenings need not be benign.

So some aspects of the Awakening need to be kept alive and to guide us, not to continue the culture wars or the clash between the cultures of generations, but the visions of the consciousness revolution that still illuminate the issues we face today-- and have yet to be dealt with since the early days of the Awakening. First and foremost, to learn to care for the Earth in the way we live, move and build our world. And second, a world at peace and a great society to which all classes and races and genders have full access. And third, quality of life priorities and personalization/fulfillment returned to the way we build and design our society, our work and our dwelling places, over merely-material growth-- which feeds back to #1 for sure, and maybe #2 as well, since material greed is the primary motivation behind the inequality promoted by our opponents.

I have no idea of how to harmonize the Aquarian and Fundamentalist awakenings. If the world is coming to an end and Jesus is coming soon to rapture those who truly believe in Him, then everything is going to go bad very fast for most of us no matter what we do. But I am not taking Pascal's wager. I see no reason to choose a miserable life even if such is inevitable.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Restorationism is the only viable solution. Imagine a future where two children a boy and girl, take a stroll to see the environs of their hometown; they walk through a landscape dominated by advanced dome cities, outside of said cities there are vast fields cultivated to provide self-sufficient food economies, these would be interspersed with settlement compounds for agricultural workers. In many regions there would be a separate domed city that would be located usually at a higher elevation from that of the other cities and settlements; here the local "entrepreneurial elite" and/or the local regional administration and personnel and their families and relations would live. Many Cities would be specialized industrial cities, in these cases there would be outside of the skyline and the main residential and business areas the would be roads connecting the main city with an industrial park which would in many ways be a separate city, filled with factories and tech-production centers, there would be towering skyscrapers consisting of administrative buildings for various enterprises, there would be many such cities both in north American and in vassalized territories.

In pacified lands like in the middle east, the situation would be somewhat different from that outlined above, here for example the two children if they were from a settlement city; would see a landscape dominated by agricultural compounds where they would see Arab Muslim workers farming under the supervision of armed guards, these guards would be detached from stormguard units, or would be paid private guards who would be drawn from nominally retired personnel from the army or Stormguard or sometimes private armed contractors, all would be military trained though. In many regions the children would see strange vehicles incrementally moving through the landscape, systematically sprinkling the ground, these would actually be agricultural reclamation vehicles which would be the most visible aspect of the project to return the Mideast's landscape to the fertile condition it was in ancient and medieval times. At agricultural compounds there would be separate smaller compounds for the armed supervisors and guards; guards would operate in shifts. In the middle east Muslim settlements would be distributed in such a way in that they would economically provide food agricultural and industrial resources to the local administrative city (which would be populated by Anglophone, Latin American, African, and Israeli settlers, etc), the resources would of course then be either utilized by the inhabitants of the administrative cities or said resources would be shipped to the Americas. Restorationism's ultimate goal is to create a civilizational reconciliation and superstate encompassing all Anglophone countries (including commonwealth countries like Australia, new Zealand and the UK but not India or the Philippines), all of Latin America and the entirety of the middle east and north Africa as far east as Iran and Afghanistan. This would provide a basis for an entirely new era in human history both politically, socially and in the civilizational history of the human race.

Cynic, do you understand that utopians are the single most dangerous folks on the face of the earth? Think about it. Tally up the many millions of human beings that have been slaughtered over the years. Who racked up the most? All Utopians. All.

Originally Posted by TnT

Cynic, do you understand that utopians are the single most dangerous folks on the face of the earth? Think about it. Tally up the many millions of human beings that have been slaughtered over the years. Who racked up the most? All Utopians. All.

His "Restorationism" is nothing but war crimes. I wonder if he has a birthday to celebrate today -- maybe with a few readings from the book of the object of celebration.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

There was the Aquarian Awakening... and the right-wing awakening of chest-pumping nationalism, tax revolts, and religious fundamentalism. The latter Awakening has much more current influence upon American political life. Such should be obvious. It is ugly; Awakenings need not be benign.

And should be called the counter-awakening, as it has little of genuine awakening in it. I rather call it a "sleepening."

I have no idea of how to harmonize the Aquarian and Fundamentalist awakenings. If the world is coming to an end and Jesus is coming soon to rapture those who truly believe in Him, then everything is going to go bad very fast for most of us no matter what we do. But I am not taking Pascal's wager. I see no reason to choose a miserable life even if such is inevitable.

Both the Awakening and the Counter-Awakening have a spiritual or religious aspect. That is the only basis I can see for common ground, unless the people can find other areas of agreement as the pressure of events unfolds, and as they see that the powers-that-be are dangerous to all of us of whatever persuasion.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

His "Restorationism" is nothing but war crimes. I wonder if he has a birthday to celebrate today -- maybe with a few readings from the book of the object of celebration.

His Restorationism is just warmed over Falangism. At least Praetor's stuff was. I have always assumed Cynic is Praetor or, at minimum, his clone. The best response to his schtick was made 40 years ago.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

His "Restorationism" is nothing but war crimes. I wonder if he has a birthday to celebrate today -- maybe with a few readings from the book of the object of celebration.

Once again you foolishly compare Restorationism to Fascism or Nazism. You forget that racism and anti-Semitism was a big part of the fascists and nazis' ideology, the latter was basically built on anti-semitism Restorationism is neither racist or anti-semitic, there is no hostility toward Jews or the State of Israel in restorationism, in fact Israel would stand to gain large amounts of territory in the general pacification of the middle east. One of the main purposes of the meritocratic reforms is to fully integrate minorities into a generalized national culture.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

According to the US government actuarial tables, a 68-year-old American male has a 50-50 chance of living another 15 1/2 years. That would be making it to 83-84. Assuming that you keep in shape, are a normal weight (which you were when I met you in person nearly 10 years ago) and don't smoke, that brings the odds more in your favor.

So yes, death prior to 81 is always a real possibility, but the odds are, barring some cataclysm, that you will make it to 85 and see at least some of the 1T.

http://www.biological-age.com/index.html

Rag's age = 41.

37.5 years to go.

So what's gonna happen in 2052 ?

Originally Posted by Ragnarök_62

http://www.biological-age.com/index.html

Rag's age = 41.

37.5 years to go.

So what's gonna happen in 2052 ?

I haven't gotten that far in my new book yet, but it appears there could be a literary revival going on; perhaps some new media opening up.... lines of communication and diplomacy. The 2050s will rhyme with the 1970s. I think there's lot of positive aspects in the 2050s. I think it will be a pleasant time.

But that's your biological age, eh? I think I may be about 10 years younger too. I want to be younger still.

The site said 49, but for some reason it thinks my calendar age is younger than it is. It says I need to eat more veggies and fruities.

It's funny writing about the next awakening. I won't be there, but with astrology I can put myself there. And maybe I will be there too, one way or another. And I know many people now living will be there, so I can put myself in their shoes, and look forward.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Once again you foolishly compare Restorationism to Fascism or Nazism. You forget that racism and anti-Semitism was a big part of the fascists and nazis' ideology, the latter was basically built on anti-semitism Restorationism is neither racist or anti-semitic, there is no hostility toward Jews or the State of Israel in restorationism, in fact Israel would stand to gain large amounts of territory in the general pacification of the middle east. One of the main purposes of the meritocratic reforms is to fully integrate minorities into a generalized national culture.

You have just substituted Arabs and Latin Americans for Jews. And there's a lot more of them to subjugate and "pacify."