Actually, it is more like 3 1/2. And in a 4T, things happen fast, especially in our electronic age and in a 4T going as badly as theis one is going. Remember, the Republicans did not exist in 1852, were a major party in 1856 and won in 1860...and that was in a 19th Century 3T without the internet.

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

Actually, it is more like 3 1/2. And in a 4T, things happen fast, especially in our electronic age and in a 4T going as badly as theis one is going. Remember, the Republicans did not exist in 1852, were a major party in 1856 and won in 1860...and that was in a 19th Century 3T without the internet.

Well, all the things you describe happening are actually common 4T predictions, not at all bizarre (though they are alarming). But all this happening before Spring 2011? 4 years away?

I mean, 4 years ago things were not much different. The only difference was Bush's approval rating. And the majority in Congress.

If all this activity happens in the remainder of the '00s and through Winter 2011, what's left to occur in the 2010s decade? Isn't that supposed to be the core of the 4T?

And the Civil War started "early" and only lasted 4 years. Still, the Coalition has the petroleum and a lot of people. They are also using their philosophy of warfare quite well. And after Mecca, every Muslim in the world is going to be up in arms. We will have to intern millions in this county alone, and since they are not always easily recognizable (I would not be surprised if many would take an oath renouncing Islam, just for a chance to later kill a Jew) we will have a hard time of it. We might have to commit genocide on the Muslim population...they will be insane with hate for a century at least. And don't underestimate the impact of a disease with decimates the world's population and bedrides many of the others at the same time. The machinery of society could grind to a halt. The use of nukes is unlikely after the "nuclear autumn" taught the world what these things could do, and if there is massive use of them nuclear winter and fallout will put an end to Modernity for a millennium at least. So the War is likely to be fought conventionally after things get started again following "Captain Trips" and that will take years.

Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec

And the Civil War started "early" and only lasted 4 years. Still, the Coalition has the petroleum and a lot of people. They are also using their philosophy of warfare quite well. And after Mecca, every Muslim in the world is going to be up in arms. We will have to intern millions in this county alone, and since they are not always easily recognizable (I would not be surprised if many would take an oath renouncing Islam, just for a chance to later kill a Jew) we will have a hard time of it. We might have to commit genocide on the Muslim population...they will be insane with hate for a century at least. And don't underestimate the impact of a disease with decimates the world's population and bedrides many of the others at the same time. The machinery of society could grind to a halt. The use of nukes is unlikely after the "nuclear autumn" taught the world what these things could do, and if there is massive use of them nuclear winter and fallout will put an end to Modernity for a millennium at least. So the War is likely to be fought conventionally after things get started again following "Captain Trips" and that will take years.

BTW, your (rather daring) economic predictions may be coming true. Wall Street had its worst day in 5 years today. OUT OF NOWHERE. The Dow closed 416 ponts down.

I'm taking bets: was today's stock slump a temporary adjustment, or the beginning of a Wall Street panic?

Originally Posted by 1990

BTW, your (rather daring) economic predictions may be coming true. Wall Street had its worst day in 5 years today. OUT OF NOWHERE. The Dow closed 416 ponts down.

I'm taking bets: was today's stock slump a temporary adjustment, or the beginning of a Wall Street panic?

Can I take the middle road and call this a bear market?

Originally Posted by catfishncod

Can I take the middle road and call this a bear market?

Well, now you're taking all the fun out of it.

Originally Posted by catfishncod

Can I take the middle road and call this a bear market?

Why, yes, you can.

I think the russians are getting ready to do something somewhere, or maybe Uzbekistan will finaly go over the edge. And here in the USA with Bank of America giving credit cards to illigal Aliens; I think the Citizens of America are finally going to do something

Originally Posted by purple-state extreamist

I think the russians are getting ready to do something somewhere, or maybe Uzbekistan will finaly go over the edge. And here in the USA with Bank of America giving credit cards to illigal Aliens; I think the Citizens of America are finally going to do something

One of the smartest moves anyone who thinks that there is a 4t comig can do is to get rid of high interest debts such as credit cards. If one choses to make a statement against the policies while ending such a relationship, well, that too would be a good thing.

More generally, if a lot of people in the larger population close their accounts wth BOA over this they will notice. If they chose not to replace that credit with other high interest credit, they will be better off in the long run.

well i think the bigest grouth industry in the next year and a half will be cell phones and periferals---People will be running from credit cards weather Leagal or Illeagal residents

Originally Posted by purple-state extreamist

well i think the bigest grouth industry in the next year and a half will be cell phones and periferals---People will be running from credit cards weather Leagal or Illeagal residents

What is with you adding unnecessary 'a's purple-state extreamist?

As it turns out, there is a hearing going on in Congress now about some of the predatory practices of the big credit card issuers. One of the plaintiffs is expected to testify how he charged over $3K for his wedding, and ended up with a bill that was triple the original investment because of high interest and assorted fees. The issuers are constantly changing their terms of use, and it seems never to be in a way that would actually benefit the consumer. One thing the advent of the internet has accomplished that is negative is that it has increased our dependency on credit cards is that you need them for online shopping(something that I very seldom do). And for some things, such as for club dues, etc. they put you on automatic renewal of your fee, which to me indicates a loss of control.

One of the big pet peeves is that credit card issuers have taken a universal default approach to debt. That means that if you are late making a payment to Company A, Companies B, C and D will raise your interest rates substantially even if you have always been on time with them. Even if you have a good record, it is much harder to get out of paying late fees than it once was, and they try to get you to sign up for a form of payment protection which is supposed to cover you in the invent of involuntary unemployment or other cirumstances. But if you certain unexpected events such as a major car repair, tough luck. I tend to believe that these plans are by and large ways the credit card companies try and squeeze more money out of you. I do hope the hearings will result in some sort of relief for honest people that don't try to cheat but occasionally have things happen. If we are expected to play by the rules, shouldn't they play by a few, too.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

As it turns out, there is a hearing going on in Congress now about some of the predatory practices of the big credit card issuers. One of the plaintiffs is expected to testify how he charged over $3K for his wedding, and ended up with a bill that was triple the original investment because of high interest and assorted fees. The issuers are constantly changing their terms of use, and it seems never to be in a way that would actually benefit the consumer. One thing the advent of the internet has accomplished that is negative is that it has increased our dependency on credit cards is that you need them for online shopping(something that I very seldom do). And for some things, such as for club dues, etc. they put you on automatic renewal of your fee, which to me indicates a loss of control.

One of the big pet peeves is that credit card issuers have taken a universal default approach to debt. That means that if you are late making a payment to Company A, Companies B, C and D will raise your interest rates substantially even if you have always been on time with them. Even if you have a good record, it is much harder to get out of paying late fees than it once was, and they try to get you to sign up for a form of payment protection which is supposed to cover you in the invent of involuntary unemployment or other cirumstances. But if you certain unexpected events such as a major car repair, tough luck. I tend to believe that these plans are by and large ways the credit card companies try and squeeze more money out of you. I do hope the hearings will result in some sort of relief for honest people that don't try to cheat but occasionally have things happen. If we are expected to play by the rules, shouldn't they play by a few, too.

This could get interesting. With America effectivly de-industrailized, two of the major areas that investment monies have gone into here are the credit industry and also into firms that manage privatized government services.
How anyone can believe that a company that must generate a profit is less costly than a non profit government agency is hard to understand. A profit margin has to come from somewhere. The attempt to privatize Social Security last year exposed some of the folly of this apporach, but more education is needed.
Also, milking the consumer through shady credit practices has been another growth industry in 3t America. In a sense, they are part of the same picture. Nothing tangable gets produced and there are no jobs created for working class people, but real wealth is transferred from the common people to the elites in both cases by questionable procedures.

It stinks.

personally I think the 4T will be about the begining of the reindustrialization of america(wether Old style industries or New style industries)--and an end to crap like credit scams on the working classes

Originally Posted by purple-state extreamist

personally I think the 4T will be about the begining of the reindustrialization of america(wether Old style industries or New style industries)--and an end to crap like credit scams on the working classes

First thing you've said that I agree with.

As for America being 'de-industrialized', I find that hard to square with the huge steel mill going up outside my town and the three new car factories constructed within a 100 mile radius. It is true that these new industries employ fewer people, and are largely foreign-financed, but these are separate problems from not having manufacturing capability on American soil.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

One of the smartest moves anyone who thinks that there is a 4t comig can do is to get rid of high interest debts such as credit cards. If one choses to make a statement against the policies while ending such a relationship, well, that too would be a good thing.

More generally, if a lot of people in the larger population close their accounts wth BOA over this they will notice. If they chose not to replace that credit with other high interest credit, they will be better off in the long run.

The illegal alien bit is very interesting but not too surprising. I think at the moment our credit companies would issue cards to dogs and cats and Martians. This will soon end, as banks start losing massive amounts of money to foreclosures (which are on mortgages to houses which people removed all equity from to pay down credit card debt).

Originally Posted by catfishncod

... As for America being 'de-industrialized', I find that hard to square with the huge steel mill going up outside my town and the three new car factories constructed within a 100 mile radius. It is true that these new industries employ fewer people, and are largely foreign-financed, but these are separate problems from not having manufacturing capability on American soil.

There are really two issues here:

1. New industry is only locating in the most business friendly areas, where they get tax abatement, 'right-to-work' laws and a compliant work force. 90%+ of that new industrial growth is in the Old South. Even Virginia and North Carolina are now considered inadequately friendly.
2. Old industry is leaving everywhere else, and relocating off shore. On balance, much more is departing than arriving.

Consider the aircraft industry. Boeing products were 100% American made not all that long ago. Now, they are off-shoring 'parts' manufacturing. What qualifies as 'parts' is rapidly coming to include major sub-assemblies. Some of the 'vendors' are learning enough from the process to take the next step, and become a New Boeing.

This is tragic, farcical and dumbfounding. I guess the investment bankers are happy.

Originally Posted by catfishncod

The illegal alien bit is very interesting but not too surprising. I think at the moment our credit companies would issue cards to dogs and cats and Martians. This will soon end, as banks start losing massive amounts of money to foreclosures (which are on mortgages to houses which people removed all equity from to pay down credit card debt).

I only hope that this time, we let them take the bath by themselves. NO BAILOUTS! Alternately, we agree to bailouts, but the US governement gets all the stock in the banks, fires all the senior execs (no Golden Parachute, either) and the profits are used to pay the taxes of those that have been screwed. In any case, no $$$ for fat-cats.

H-m-m. I'm sure I have some bank stock in my 401k somewhere.

To Herbal Tee:

I am not sure what you mean by BOA. Has it got anything to do with the snake called the Boa Constrictor. Even if it doesn't, it is appropos, as the credit card industry has become a finanical boa constrictor. I can't, however, imagine a mass movement to close credit card accounts. Are you saying that if there was, then the big credit companies would get a big comeuppance to the point of being royally f****d?

Originally Posted by catfishncod

First thing you've said that I agree with.

As for America being 'de-industrialized', I find that hard to square with the huge steel mill going up outside my town and the three new car factories constructed within a 100 mile radius. It is true that these new industries employ fewer people, and are largely foreign-financed, but these are separate problems from not having manufacturing capability on American soil.

First, I wish what you are discribing was the rule rather than the exception. BTW, is this new industry happening in "Codland" or "Catfishland?"

In my neck of "Catfishland" textiles formed the backbone of the economy for about a century. No more. I used to have a neighbor who was a textile machine mechanic. After the mill the he worked at closed down, he went to work for a firm that disassembled textile plants and shipped them to India. From 2001 to 2005, he worked constantly and made a lot of overtime. In 2005 they more of less ran out of mills to disassemble. He was lucky that his disassembiling jig lasted as long as it did for he turned 62 in early 2006. Once he qualified for Social Security, he sold his house and moved to "Tarponland" aka Florida.
Most of his former co-workers aren't as lucky. Of the two that I know personally, one is a retail clerk and the other has fallen into temporary worker world.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

To Herbal Tee:

I am not sure what you mean by BOA. Has it got anything to do with the snake called the Boa Constrictor. Even if it doesn't, it is appropos, as the credit card industry has become a finanical boa constrictor. I can't, however, imagine a mass movement to close credit card accounts. Are you saying that if there was, then the big credit companies would get a big comeuppance to the point of being royally f****d?

Sorry, I must have lived in the corporate headquarters city for too long: BOA=Bank of America. In Charlotte, with both Wachovia and BOA, you either play the banking game of else your an outsider. That's one of the reasons why I left.

Just like in Detroit you were an oustider if you didn't work in the auto industry? Did you see the logic in the boa constrictor theory?

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Just like in Detroit you were an oustider if you didn't work in the auto industry? Did you see the logic in the boa constrictor theory?

Yes, it is a good one, I couldn't agree more. I should have commented more, but I'm on a borrowed computer (I may have to replace mine : ) and it's almost as disagreeable as mine had become.

I was just wondering if you hope that one day BOA will be DOA? They were one of the biggest culprits in the congressional hearings, along with Chase, who had bought out Bank One, who before had bought out First Chicago.

Thought it would be intersting to name the biggest "financial boa constrictors" around. I guess I'll let you begin.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

I was just wondering if you hope that one day BOA will be DOA?

Me? If so, I'll say that I still have friends in the Charlotte area, some of which have been laid off by BOA or Wachovia as they have swallowed up smaller banks along the way. Hopefully, Charlotte can diversify the local economy before such a thing happens.

They were one of the biggest culprits in the congressional hearings, along with Chase, who had bought out Bank One, who before had bought out First Chicago.

Thought it would be intersting to name the biggest "financial boa constrictors" around. I guess I'll let you begin.

There is always a need for protecting the public good through the regulation of powerful industries. A few ill advised regulations in areas like trucking where the barriers to entry are low have been used as an excuse to deregulate natural monopolies like banking and power production.
If this 4t goes well, examples like Enron in power production and the current credit card fiasco will be examples cited for passing and maintaining good, balanced regulations.

Of course, somewhere around 2065 when the next 3t begins, we'll all be gone and a new bunch system gamers will argue to undo our reforms and the next great unraverling will be underway.