Given the previous poll threads about Iraq/Lebanon/Syria and Russia, I figured this could be a regular feature for nations I or others are not sure about (see "Objections" thread, etc.)

Turkey I have in 1T. I am only about 60-70% sure of this. Since most of the nations on the world map I am fairly sure about, I want to reexamine my less confident choices. Since poll readers were so helpful in solidifying Iraq/Lebanon/Syria as 2T and Russia as 1T, I am hoping you can be helpful here too.

In the Objections thread, the debate on Turkey is narrow. We all agree that Turkey had a 4T during WWI with the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. The debate is whether Turkey had a 4T in the 1990s, as scheduled, or whether it is overdue ("5T") for a new Crisis.

If you think Turkey is...

entering Recovery (1T), which is where I have had it, then you consider the turbulent events of the 1990s (frequent government turnover, economic "austerity" reforms, and the PKK War) to be Turkey's last Crisis.

entering Awakening (2T), then...I don't get you.

entering Unraveling (3T), then you consider the 1990s events to be 2T, with the last Crisis being the 1950s. (Huh?)

entering Crisis (4T or "5T"), then you consider Turkey, like Mexico, Haiti, and much of the Arabian peninsula, to have had a Crisis in the WWI timeline, but none since. Thus, in your mind, it is overdue for a new Crisis, with the 1990s having been a turbulent 3T instead of a true 4T.

Let the voting begin.

Obviously 1T.

Obviously 4T.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Obviously 4T.

Sorry, but WW1 and the end of the empire was definitely a 4T for Turkey, which means the stuff in the 90's was their last 4T (I don't beleive in John's "5T" nonsense).

Originally Posted by Odin

Sorry, but WW1 and the end of the empire was definitely a 4T for Turkey, which means the stuff in the 90's was their last 4T (I don't beleive in John's "5T" nonsense).

I agree in general that "5T"s are rare if existant at all, and if the shoe fits (like the 1990s as a Crisis in Russia and the rest of the former Soviet states), I tend to think cycles are hard to upset...but if you don't ever believe in delayed 4Ts, what is your thinking on Mexico? (which clearly had a 4T with the Revolution in the 1910s, and has not really had one since)

well maybe Turkey is in a long mild 4T...as in 4T right Now, that author was just assasinated and they've still got the Kurds and Iraq to worry about

Originally Posted by purple-state extreamist

well maybe Turkey is in a long mild 4T...as in 4T right Now, that author was just assasinated and they've still got the Kurds and Iraq to worry about

Here's the thing about Turkey. I'm not completely sure that the reforms and instability of the '90s count as a true 4T. If they do, that makes the entire picture fit - crisis in the 1910s, crisis in the 1990s, recovery today. Turkey's constantly hopeful efforts to be recognized by Europe as "part of the community" seem like a country that is just now "cleaning up its act" after disaster, much like the Eastern European countries that have been joining the EU and NATO lately. Or like Vietnam's aggressive tourist campaign in the last couple decades.

I don't think the assassination of an author and "having the Kurds and Iraq to worry about" qualifies necessarily as a 4T. But I'm not 100% sure that the upheavals of the 1990s were a 4T. The shoe seems to fit, but I created this thread hoping for more insight into just what happened in that period, from the PKK War to the frequent government turnover and the economic reforms.

Originally Posted by Odin

Sorry, but WW1 and the end of the empire was definitely a 4T for Turkey, which means the stuff in the 90's was their last 4T (I don't beleive in John's "5T" nonsense).

I agree that the fall of the Empire was definitely a 4T, but there was nothing worthy of a crisis in the 1990's. A 5T is simply where the 20 years of the 4T passes without a crisis. I believe that this has happened.

The Economist has a new article about rising ultra-nationalism in Turkey. This is typical of a lead-in to Crisis, as by the time the Recovery comes nationalism and xenophobia have been high for some time. So this might strengthen the case for a delayed Crisis.

Excerpts:

"In the past two years Mr Kerincsiz and his Turkish Jurists' Union have launched a slew of cases against Turkish intellectuals under article 301 of the penal code, which makes "insulting Turkishness" a criminal offence. ...

The upsurge threatens to undo the good of four years of reforms by the mildly Islamist government led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Indeed, it is partly in response to these reforms--more freedom for the Kurds, a trimming of the army's powers, concessions on Cyprus--that nationalist passions have been roused. ...

Murat Belge, a leftist intellectual who is being hounded by Mr Kerincsiz, sees disturbing similarities between the racist nationalism espoused by the "Young Turks" in the dying days of the Ottoman empire (who ordered the mass slaughter of its Armenian subjects), and the siege mentality gripping Turkey today. The perception, now as then, is that Western powers are pressing for changes to empower their local collaborators (ie, Kurds and non-Muslims), with the aim of breaking up the country. ..."

The fact that this vitriolic nationalism is surging so fiercely (a fact documented in the article) supports the idea of a delayed 4T in Turkey. (Unlike neighboring Armenia, which clearly already went through its darkest days during the Soviet collapse). While Turkey and Armenia were both in 4T during the genocide in 1915 and WWI, for some reason Armenia stayed on that timeline while Turkey diverged. Possibly due to a financially beneficial alliance with the United States in modern years?

Originally Posted by 1990

I agree in general that "5T"s are rare if existant at all, and if the shoe fits (like the 1990s as a Crisis in Russia and the rest of the former Soviet states), I tend to think cycles are hard to upset...but if you don't ever believe in delayed 4Ts, what is your thinking on Mexico? (which clearly had a 4T with the Revolution in the 1910s, and has not really had one since)

I think 4Ts, like the other turnings, can be stretched out by a few years, bit only a few. When the Nomads start reaching elderhood they generally will put a break on 4T craziness. Sometimes a country or region just has a mild 4T with a mild climax that doesn't have much extreme turmoil, The UK in the 1860s is a good example. A war between the US and a CSA-allied UK was possible, but didn't happen in the end, leading to a mild crisis.

IMO Mexico's 4T started in the early 90's with the economic crisis and Zapatista uprising of 1994. The end of single-party rule by the PRI marks the Regeneracy.

Originally Posted by Odin

I think 4Ts, like the other turnings, can be stretched out by a few years, bit only a few. When the Nomads start reaching elderhood they generally will put a break on 4T craziness. Sometimes a country or region just has a mild 4T with a mild climax that doesn't have much extreme turmoil, The UK in the 1860s is a good example. A war between the US and a CSA-allied UK was possible, but didn't happen in the end, leading to a mild crisis.

IMO Mexico's 4T started in the early 90's with the economic crisis and Zapatista uprising of 1994. The end of single-party rule by the PRI marks the Regeneracy.

In the mid to late 4T (70-80) years after the previous end of the crisis, I would expect to see crisis type events, like suicide bombings and occasional riots. If the 80 year mark passes and there is no crisis (no catalyst, cascade, regeneracy, climax, resolution), then the country enters the 5th turning, which is marked by an increase in these events.

Now, I suppose what you are saying is that these crisis-type events that occur in the late 4T (70-80 years after the previous crisis) actually make up the crisis itself and that after the 80 years, the recovery will start.

I disagree. Society must pass through that great gate that defines the 4T. If not, then they will continue on their slow spiral.

Originally Posted by Odin

I think 4Ts, like the other turnings, can be stretched out by a few years, bit only a few. When the Nomads start reaching elderhood they generally will put a break on 4T craziness. Sometimes a country or region just has a mild 4T with a mild climax that doesn't have much extreme turmoil, The UK in the 1860s is a good example. A war between the US and a CSA-allied UK was possible, but didn't happen in the end, leading to a mild crisis.

IMO Mexico's 4T started in the early 90's with the economic crisis and Zapatista uprising of 1994. The end of single-party rule by the PRI marks the Regeneracy.

This is a complicated issue for me. One side of me is with you that after a certain period of time, anything that happens in a society is 4T, even if it is not over-the-top 4T drama complete with civil war, economic depression, or mass uprisings. I am extremely gunshy about assigning the "5T" because I don't think it is natural, and certainly not common, for a civilization to survive so long without a redefining Crisis.

For this reason I am now convinced about Russia having completed its 1990s 4T. I differ with MichaelEaston about this. And there are some cases, like Mexico, Turkey, and Haiti, where there were significant political events in the 1990s that would fit conveniently if they were 4T.

But in the end, the question stands: Did these events radically reshape society - its politics, its government, its civic structure, its bureaucracy? And I don't think that fundamental, uniquely 4T change, occurred in Mexico, Haiti, or Turkey during the 1990s. The Zapatista Uprising in 1994, if anything, looks like that mounting disorder present during an Unraveling. Same with the instability in Haiti during that period, and Turkey. I can't vouch for Haiti or Turkey, but I know that Mexico today looks much more like a country entering Crisis than like one recovering from one. The fall of the PRI was big, but the prevailing sentiment in Mexico right now (at least the places I've been, most of them PAN strongholds) is that the current political crop is hardly much different. La mordida still exists, and the "tortilla riots" this winter reek of early 4T discontent among the working people; hardly like a country recovering from such a populist revolution.

Also, while I would like to believe there is no 5T, how would one explain the state of the Arabian peninsula? The 1990s should have been right on time for a crisis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, or the UAE. But nothing. 4Ts are unique, and usually they should pop out in history. So while I am careful about using this rare label, I do think it applies to the Arabian peninsula, Mexico, Haiti, and very possibly Turkey.

Originally Posted by 1990

This is a complicated issue for me. One side of me is with you that after a certain period of time, anything that happens in a society is 4T, even if it is not over-the-top 4T drama complete with civil war, economic depression, or mass uprisings. I am extremely gunshy about assigning the "5T" because I don't think it is natural, and certainly not common, for a civilization to survive so long without a redefining Crisis.

For this reason I am now convinced about Russia having completed its 1990s 4T. I differ with MichaelEaston about this. And there are some cases, like Mexico, Turkey, and Haiti, where there were significant political events in the 1990s that would fit conveniently if they were 4T.

But in the end, the question stands: Did these events radically reshape society - its politics, its government, its civic structure, its bureaucracy? And I don't think that fundamental, uniquely 4T change, occurred in Mexico, Haiti, or Turkey during the 1990s. The Zapatista Uprising in 1994, if anything, looks like that mounting disorder present during an Unraveling. Same with the instability in Haiti during that period, and Turkey. I can't vouch for Haiti or Turkey, but I know that Mexico today looks much more like a country entering Crisis than like one recovering from one. The fall of the PRI was big, but the prevailing sentiment in Mexico right now (at least the places I've been, most of them PAN strongholds) is that the current political crop is hardly much different. La mordida still exists, and the "tortilla riots" this winter reek of early 4T discontent among the working people; hardly like a country recovering from such a populist revolution.

Also, while I would like to believe there is no 5T, how would one explain the state of the Arabian peninsula? The 1990s should have been right on time for a crisis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, or the UAE. But nothing. 4Ts are unique, and usually they should pop out in history. So while I am careful about using this rare label, I do think it applies to the Arabian peninsula, Mexico, Haiti, and very possibly Turkey.

Yeah, I agree with most of this, but I'm less sure about fundamental changes in government being oh-so indicative of a 4T. In doing our research, we don't have access to the best of sources so it's nearly impossible to understand the feelings of the people; but I think this works most of the time:

If independence was the cause of a brutal, violent uprising, then it was 4T. If independence was the result of a bloodless coup (or slightly bloody coup) or if independence was granted, it was 2T.

--------
Of course, the society has to go through some defining great gate of history, and I'm not getting this from any of the countries I have defined as 5T. Governmental change is not enough.

I think that by not assigning the possible 5T, one will find that the paradigm doesn't work so well worldwide.

Turkey is in a 3T along with rest of the middle east. I've studied the middle eastern saeculum a fair bit. Events in recent years in Turkey hint at a 3T, the rise of Islamism there in recent years is akind to the rise of the Christian Fundamentalists as a political force in the USA.

The middle east in the 1980's and 1990's was a time of an amazing 2T, comparable to that of last 2T for us. A time of spirtual furor and lots of angry young men with beards. The various arab countries support of Saddam Hussein's regime in fighting aganist the Iran was done because they rightfully feared a similar islamist revolution happening in their countries.

In recent years things have been a lot quieter in the Middle East than previously, the Idealist generation has reached middle aged and fighting aganist each other than aganist the system. The Nomad Generation which has entered the young adult age brackets wants to take no part generally in fighting the system.

I see Ataturk as a classic idealist, he implented not just a new institutional order for Turkey, but a new moral one. He wanted Turkey to become a secular western society rather the countries of Europe. In the last couple of decades many Turks have come to question the extreme secularism of Turkey's institutions and believe they should be infused with Islamic values.

Tristan,

So the collapse of the Ottoman Empire was an Awakening? I always saw it as having the same profound effect on the Middle East that the Soviet collapse (which I call a 4T) had on Eastern Europe/Central Asia.

Originally Posted by 1990

Tristan,

So the collapse of the Ottoman Empire was an Awakening? I always saw it as having the same profound effect on the Middle East that the Soviet collapse (which I call a 4T) had on Eastern Europe/Central Asia.

Sorry, but the Ottoman Empire collapse was COMPLETELY different than the Soviet collapse.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolu...Ottoman_Empire

Originally Posted by Tristan

Turkey is in a 3T along with rest of the middle east. I've studied the middle eastern saeculum a fair bit. Events in recent years in Turkey hint at a 3T, the rise of Islamism there in recent years is akind to the rise of the Christian Fundamentalists as a political force in the USA.

The middle east in the 1980's and 1990's was a time of an amazing 2T, comparable to that of last 2T for us. A time of spirtual furor and lots of angry young men with beards. The various arab countries support of Saddam Hussein's regime in fighting aganist the Iran was done because they rightfully feared a similar islamist revolution happening in their countries.

In recent years things have been a lot quieter in the Middle East than previously, the Idealist generation has reached middle aged and fighting aganist each other than aganist the system. The Nomad Generation which has entered the young adult age brackets wants to take no part generally in fighting the system.

I see Ataturk as a classic idealist, he implented not just a new institutional order for Turkey, but a new moral one. He wanted Turkey to become a secular western society rather the countries of Europe. In the last couple of decades many Turks have come to question the extreme secularism of Turkey's institutions and believe they should be infused with Islamic values.

The Middle East won't stop bothering me. I'm pretty sure Turkey is on the same cycle as the Balkans, But I can't decide whether the rest of the Middle East is on the same cycle (all the ME minus Turkey is late 3T) or on two cycles (Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are early 2T, the rest are late 3T). I can't make my frigging mind up...

Originally Posted by Odin

The Middle East won't stop bothering me.

I think a thousand generations of international diplomats and politicians have said the same thing.

Originally Posted by 1990

Tristan,

So the collapse of the Ottoman Empire was an Awakening? I always saw it as having the same profound effect on the Middle East that the Soviet collapse (which I call a 4T) had on Eastern Europe/Central Asia.

Well it was most likely at the end of an awakening and begining of an unravelling, if I got my rough dates right. As the middle eastern saeculum goes 3T 2000-2020, 2T 1980-2000, 1T 1960-1980, 4T 1940-1960, 3T 1920-1940.

About the same point in the saeculum the soviet collpase happen, which was an 3T event for all concerned. What has been happening to Russia since the collpase of the soviet empire is classic 3T.

I see a lot of the world being in either at the early part of a 3T (Middle East, North Africa) or latter part towards the 4T (all of Europe, Asian Russia, China, Indian Sub Continent, South-East Asia, China, Sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania and North America. Japan and Korea are most likely on a different saeculum (Start of a 3T probably). I have little idea of what the saeculum is in South and Central America.

Turkey has attempted to rejoin Europe. Yes, I can accept that for Turkey the era beginning 1912 (Italo-Turkish War and Balkan Wars) and ending with the overthrow of the Ottoman monarchy in the early 1920s was a Crisis Era for Turkey. By joining Europe to the extent that it has Turkey has aligned its saeculum with that of such neighbors and near-neighbors as Greece, Italy, and Russia. That now means the brink of a 4T.

So Turkey's saeculum has taken nearly 85 years to go through a 1T, a 2T, and a 3T... it can't avoid the 4T that its western and northern neighbors can't. That's not impossible, but it is a reasonable limit. What goes on in Bosnia, Kosovo, Chechnya and Nagorno-Karabakh can spill over into Turkey. Let's not ignore a near-neighbor to the south, the one (Israel) very close to a full-blown 4T.

Does anyone think that because such countries as Portugal, Switzerland, and Sweden escaped the consequences of WWII that they are not part of a larger world with which they have most of their dealings? Even if the latter two have no military alliance with the West they can hardly avoid concerns of countries with which they have much in common.

The saeculum can be deferred a little, but not for ever. Turkey, once somewhat separate from much of Europe since the 1800s. A 60-year interval between Crisis Eras in neighboring Greece and Bulgaria and an 85-year interval in Turkey are likely to meet in a shared Crisis Era.

If there is any clash of civilizations between the West and Islam, then Turkey will be the third zone of conflict (Israel is first, southern Russia is second; I expect America and Britain to leave Iraq ignominiously, and the former Yugoslavia is close to being settled).

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Turkey has attempted to rejoin Europe. Yes, I can accept that for Turkey the era beginning 1912 (Italo-Turkish War and Balkan Wars) and ending with the overthrow of the Ottoman monarchy in the early 1920s was a Crisis Era for Turkey. By joining Europe to the extent that it has Turkey has aligned its saeculum with that of such neighbors and near-neighbors as Greece, Italy, and Russia. That now means the brink of a 4T.

Agree with your answer. Disagree with how you got there.

Does anyone think that because such countries as Portugal, Switzerland, and Sweden escaped the consequences of WWII that they are not part of a larger world with which they have most of their dealings? Even if the latter two have no military alliance with the West they can hardly avoid concerns of countries with which they have much in common.

My guess is that they will have an equally hard time avoiding this next war.

The saeculum can be deferred a little, but not for ever. Turkey, once somewhat separate from much of Europe since the 1800s. A 60-year interval between Crisis Eras in neighboring Greece and Bulgaria and an 85-year interval in Turkey are likely to meet in a shared Crisis Era.

If there is any clash of civilizations between the West and Islam, then Turkey will be the third zone of conflict (Israel is first, southern Russia is second; I expect America and Britain to leave Iraq ignominiously, and the former Yugoslavia is close to being settled).

Turkey is the center of the world.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Agree with your answer. Disagree with how you got there.



My guess is that they will have an equally hard time avoiding this next war.



Turkey is the center of the world.

In Classical Antiquity it was -- being about halfway between Scandinavia and Ethiopia (the most northerly and southerly places that the Greeks and Romans knew about), and halfway between Spain and India (then effectively the western and eastern ends of the world that they had any direct dealings with). Much early Christian activity occurred in Turkey(think of the books known as "Ephesians" and "Galatians". I understand that Turkey has some of the best-preserved Greco- Roman ruins. It was a combat zone between Greece and Rome in the west and Persia in the east. The Chinese might have different ideas of where the center of the world was and is...

No country can claim to be the center of the world because there is no center. There are more important places and less-important places. Paris and Tokyo are obviously more significant than the South Pole.

Is Turkey the wave of the future for the Islamic world? I can imagine few better models that will be relevant -- and Islamic. Mohammed, meet Thomas Jefferson. That itself could be a major crisis in some places.

4T's, are defined by a certain generational constellation. But what they are primarily about is a fundamental change in the outer-world institutional order. It seems that Ataturk was still engaging Turkish society in such fundamental reforms up into the 1930's. A crisis of 1914-1938, or thereabouts (1918-1935?- or whatever) is not too far-fetched.

Since Turkey was a primarily pre-industrial society until recently, it's saeculum, and therefore it's turnings, would be longer than ours. As time has gone by it's likely the Turkish saeculum has compacted like it has for all modernizing societies. So a long 1T followed by a shorter 2T and 3T could easily put Turkey at the edge of another fourth turning right now.

I would put only Ireland and Yugoslavia in 1T phases right now, and they may be pulled into the main wave most everyone else is on if our 4T gravely affects them. Most of the world has come into "synch" this way. To my mind, only the Islamic World and Japan are the major societies not in synch with the main wave. As the Anglosphere, China, Russia, India, and most of Europe skid into 4T mode, most of Islam is just a few years out of the "Islamic Resurgence" 2T and Japan is mired in the middle of a 3T.

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

Since Turkey was a primarily pre-industrial society until recently, it's saeculum, and therefore it's turnings, would be longer than ours. As time has gone by it's likely the Turkish saeculum has compacted like it has for all modernizing societies. So a long 1T followed by a shorter 2T and 3T could easily put Turkey at the edge of another fourth turning right now.

I think you might be right, Zara.

Things are getting dicey where East meets West -

http://tinyurl.com/yw9u8s

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Turkey's stocks and currency fell sharply Monday, as the country's political crisis deepened after the military threatened to intervene in the presidential elections to protect secular values, and the Islamist government came under pressure to call early general elections.