Previous poll threads were helpful in determining the status of Russia and Syria/Lebanon/Iraq. Turkey was inconclusive, but I have since made up my own mind on that matter.

On to the Lucky Irish...so lucky they might not have had a crisis in 84 years. Is this possible? Or were the major economic reforms, social struggles of The Troubles, and political liberalization of the 1980s-90s a sufficient 4T?

If you answer...

that Ireland is entering 1T: Then you consider Liberalization, the end of The Troubles, and the rise of the Celtic Tiger to have been a 4T.

2T: Then you consider the beginning of the Troubles and their continuation through the 1970s to have been a 4T.

3T: Then you consider the social upheavals of the 1950s (widely agreed to be an Awakening) to have been a 4T.

4T: Then you consider WWII (in which Ireland did not participate in a full-throated way) to have been a 4T for Ireland.

Beyond 4T; 5T or otherwise "overdue": Then you consider that Ireland is overdue for a true crisis, not having had one since the struggle for independence and the brief civil war.

I am personally debating whether it is 1T or "5T". I doubt any of the other options to be real possibilities. Your thoughts, please?

Also, the beginning of the Troubles (1968) was only 45 years after the end of the Irish Civil War. This *has* happened, but only in rare circumstances, like an unexpected invasion or through massive disease, famine, and war.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Also, the beginning of the Troubles (1968) was only 45 years after the end of the Irish Civil War. This *has* happened, but only in rare circumstances, like an unexpected invasion or through massive disease, famine, and war.

Well, I wouldn't argue that 1968 was the beginning of a 4T. *If* Ireland has already had its crisis, it couldn't have begun in 1968...more likely somewhere around 1977-1982.

I don't see how Ireland can be anything but 1T, the atmosphere over there screams "High" to me

Originally Posted by 1990

Well, I wouldn't argue that 1968 was the beginning of a 4T. *If* Ireland has already had its crisis, it couldn't have begun in 1968...more likely somewhere around 1977-1982.

But if you say 1977, you're skipping the most violent part of the Troubles. If you are going to argue for the Troubles being a crisis, excluding the worst part isn't going to help make your case.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

But if you say 1977, you're skipping the most violent part of the Troubles. If you are going to argue for the Troubles being a crisis, excluding the worst part isn't going to help make your case.

Exactly, which is why I'm not convinced. No true crisis war would drag on sporadically and at varying levels of activity for 30 years. The violence would be concentrated and intense.

So I'm really not sure about Ireland. If it is 1T, then that was a mild 4T, mainly characterized by big political reforms rather than by anything truly devastating to the public psyche.

I'm learning that a lot of "5T" countries are showing a common pattern. When the crisis is due, 60 years after the last one ended, the world of politics and society gets greatly shaken up...but without a climax. There isn't sufficient intensity to allow for the let-down, the resolution, needed to end a true 4T. Mexico and Turkey are prime examples. In Mexico, the winds of change were there starting in the '80s. And Mexico did experience big political upheaval during the next 20 years, most notably the fall of the PRI and the remaking of the economy. And yet, while the political structure was reworked, the people didn't engage in that uniquely 4T frenetic energy. Mexico today feels no more unified, no more "recovered", no more rebuilt, than it did in 1987. If anything, tensions are building as if one were leading into a crisis. Turkey is exactly the same.

The only reason Ireland might still be 1T is that the social tensions do feel resolved there. The masses in Mexico, Turkey, and the Arabian peninsula are getting more xenophobic and impatient every day. Not so in Ireland, from what I've seen and heard.

Originally Posted by 1990

Exactly, which is why I'm not convinced. No true crisis war would drag on sporadically and at varying levels of activity for 30 years. The violence would be concentrated and intense.

Right.

So I'm really not sure about Ireland. If it is 1T, then that was a mild 4T, mainly characterized by big political reforms rather than by anything truly devastating to the public psyche.

I'm very skeptical about political reforms being a 4T. I have never seen political reforms (and only political reforms) act as a 4T anywhere.

I'm learning that a lot of "5T" countries are showing a common pattern. When the crisis is due, 60 years after the last one ended, the world of politics and society gets greatly shaken up...but without a climax. There isn't sufficient intensity to allow for the let-down, the resolution, needed to end a true 4T. Mexico and Turkey are prime examples. In Mexico, the winds of change were there starting in the '80s. And Mexico did experience big political upheaval during the next 20 years, most notably the fall of the PRI and the remaking of the economy. And yet, while the political structure was reworked, the people didn't engage in that uniquely 4T frenetic energy. Mexico today feels no more unified, no more "recovered", no more rebuilt, than it did in 1987. If anything, tensions are building as if one were leading into a crisis. Turkey is exactly the same.

That's a really interesting observation. Do you have a hypothesis as to why this is? Could you apply it to Russia?

The only reason Ireland might still be 1T is that the social tensions do feel resolved there. The masses in Mexico, Turkey, and the Arabian peninsula are getting more xenophobic and impatient every day. Not so in Ireland, from what I've seen and heard.

Possibly. But those divisions are still there. What happens when their economy collapses?

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Right.



I'm very skeptical about political reforms being a 4T. I have never seen political reforms (and only political reforms) act as a 4T anywhere.



That's a really interesting observation. Do you have a hypothesis as to why this is? Could you apply it to Russia?



Possibly. But those divisions are still there. What happens when their economy collapses?

A hypothesis? Not in the least. I recognize it as a consistent pattern, but why? Dunno. For some reason it happens occasionally that the masses are not ready for a traumatic 20-year passage in their nation's history, so no true 4T arrives, but they are just pessimistic and dissatisfied enough to force some real change in their political system. This creates a situation where major reforms are achieved and elements of society become clearly refreshed, but the overall cleansing effect is not there. There is no climax. Social tensions and divisions continue to mount while the recently-achieved political reforms turn out to still have some big holes. And then the true 4T arrives, a turning too late.

As for Russia, I wouldn't know since I still consider it 1T. If I were arguing the other way, I might point out to the lack of a war (compare to the Balkans) and to the idea that Putin is, if anything, a throwback to the strongmen of the Communist days. But there is something that makes the mood in Russia fundamentally more 1T than the mood in Turkey, Mexico, or other 5T countries.

In Turkey and Mexico, there is the strong sense among the masses that there are still a lot of big problems left unresolved, and social tensions are building rather than stabilizing. (Note the rising ultra-nationalism in Turkey, as witnessed in the Hrant Dink tragedy, and class divisions in Mexico, as seen in the tortilla riots and '06 election) In Russia, there is a strong mood of pride among the public for the government. Putin's coalition is expected to sweep Duma elections this year and easily win the presidential election next year. No currently 4T (or 5T) countries are acting as optimistic about their politicians. Indeed, most of them are in a "throw the bums out" mood. So wouldn't this indicate that the Russian people generally feel proud about the direction their country is heading in? You certainly don't see such a clear political mandate for Bush, Blair, Musharraf, Shinzo Abe, Romano Prodi, John Howard, or any other 4T leader.

Originally Posted by 1990

> I'm learning that a lot of "5T" countries are showing a common
> pattern. When the crisis is due, 60 years after the last one
> ended, the world of politics and society gets greatly shaken
> up...but without a climax. There isn't sufficient intensity to
> allow for the let-down, the resolution, needed to end a true 4T.
> Mexico and Turkey are prime examples. In Mexico, the winds of
> change were there starting in the '80s. And Mexico did experience
> big political upheaval during the next 20 years, most notably the
> fall of the PRI and the remaking of the economy. And yet, while
> the political structure was reworked, the people didn't engage in
> that uniquely 4T frenetic energy. Mexico today feels no more
> unified, no more "recovered", no more rebuilt, than it did in
> 1987. If anything, tensions are building as if one were leading
> into a crisis. Turkey is exactly the same.

> The only reason Ireland might still be 1T is that the social
> tensions do feel resolved there. The masses in Mexico, Turkey, and
> the Arabian peninsula are getting more xenophobic and impatient
> every day. Not so in Ireland, from what I've seen and heard.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

> That's a really interesting observation. Do you have a
> hypothesis as to why this is? Could you apply it to Russia?

With regard to Russia, it seems to me that the breakup of the Soviet
Union would easily qualify as "the world of politics and society gets
greatly shaken up...but without a climax."

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Is there any chance that Northern Ireland (the part that didn't join the rest of the island in independence from the UK) might be in a different turning than the rest of Ireland. I don't recall that the Troubles affected most of Ireland that much; just Northern Ireland.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

With regard to Russia, it seems to me that the breakup of the Soviet
Union would easily qualify as "the world of politics and society gets
greatly shaken up...but without a climax."

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

People have been debating Russia yet again lately. John, if you consider Russia to be 5T, then was WWII a 1T? I can't remember if that was your opinion, or if you thought the last 4T was extended abnormally for ~30 years.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Is there any chance that Northern Ireland (the part that didn't join the rest of the island in independence from the UK) might be in a different turning than the rest of Ireland. I don't recall that the Troubles affected most of Ireland that much; just Northern Ireland.

Yes, this only thickens the plot. Perhaps Northern Ireland is 1T right now but Ireland is 5T. Oh, the humanity.

Originally Posted by 1990

Yes, this only thickens the plot. Perhaps Northern Ireland is 1T right now but Ireland is 5T. Oh, the humanity.

I was thinking more that Northern Ireland would be on the British cycle (cusp of 3T/4T) and Ireland proper would be 1T.

I am hardly an expert, however -- I haven't been to either place since 1971.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

I was thinking more that Northern Ireland would be on the British cycle (cusp of 3T/4T) and Ireland proper would be 1T.

I am hardly an expert, however -- I haven't been to either place since 1971.

I went to Ireland in August 2001, weeks before 9/11, and found it a very peaceful and good-spirited place. I really did not get the sense that this was a place on the verge of a crisis, or necessarily recovering from one.

Then again, until 9/11 most of the world was still in that oblivious '90s haze of comfiness.

Looks like things could be looking up for Ireland:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17795172/

Ireland cannot avoid the coming Crisis, "Celtic Tiger" economy notwithstanding. Too many countries with strong cultural ties to Ireland (USA, Canada, Australia, Great Britain) are approaching the ends of 3Ts.

Ireland may experienced no harm in WWII...just luck, as with Portugal, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Ireland like the rest of Europe is currently in a late 3T. The Easter Uprising and the resulting Irish civil war can be seen as a 3T event, it divided the country rather than uniting it. For example Six Ulster Counties remained a part of the UK rather than join the Irish free state, even in the remainder many did not accept the legitimacy of the Irish Free State. Very similar to what happened with Russia after the Bolsheviks took over.

The 4T occurred in the 1930's and 1940's when the Irish Free State was replaced with the Irish Republic which lasts to this day, which was seen as legitimate by the big majority of the Irish people. The start of the troubles in Northern Ireland can be dated to 1968, which is the same time the awakening started in Europe. Before 68 the Catholic civil rights movement was a peaceful 1T style movement like the civil rights movement was in the USA, after 68 like the Black Rioters in the cities of the USA, the troubles started.

It's end is a result that Ireland entered the 3T along with rest of Europe. People just got tried of the endless violence, rage and fury. Get the chance to read Angela's Ashes by Frank McCourt, it is an excellent description of an Artist childhood during a 4T. Frank McCourt is a classic Silent imo.

The changes which have happened in the economy and society of Irish Republic in recent years are very similar to what happened to the USA during the roaring 20's another 3T period, time of economic expansion and changing mores.

Well, Northern Ireland at least seems 1T:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070508/...rthern_ireland

Thoughts?

Originally Posted by 1990

Well, Northern Ireland at least seems 1T:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070508/...rthern_ireland

Thoughts?

Of course, the whole island is part of the same culture. The potato famine caused a 4t in the 1840's. The next 4t occurred on schedule during WWI and the catholic south broke away from the British. However, the independence struggle affected the whole island to an extent. In fact,the last 4t was the "time of troubles" which centered on the north were the independence issue was not resolved. That has ended within the last ten years. The current 1T is completely on schedule and is affecting both sides of the border.

Originally Posted by 1990

Well, Northern Ireland at least seems 1T:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070508/...rthern_ireland

Thoughts?

Such developments can happen during 3T's, mainly because people have become drained of the passions that had in the previous 2T. Plus people become cynical of the political establishment and feel no need to fight it, unless it aversely affected their lives in a direct way.

I forgot to add in that famous Irish band U2, although two of the four band members are English born, the other two are Irish and Bono 60' the leader singer is pure Boomer.

The collapse of the power of the Catholic Church in Republic of Ireland, plus the economic liberalization of the last couple of decades, can be seen as 2T and 3T events. Very much the same economically happened in Britain under Iron Lady during the 80's. 1950's and 1960's from what I have read and watched of films of the period was conformist and stifling.

4T's and 1T's are times when the economy becomes more regulated not less so. That is more a trait of 2T's and especially 3T's.