Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

What's the speech about?

John

I'm giving the commencement speech at my graduation ceremony.

Originally Posted by Tristan

Mozambique is a Southern African nation, it borders Zimbabwe and South Africa, both those countries I have seen had their awakenings in the 70's and 80's and now are in 3T's.

Then identify the crisis.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Then identify the crisis.

Well in South Africa that ended around 1948 with the establishment of Apartheid. In Sub-Saharan Africa you are essentially dealing with societies which were very 'traditional' until quite recently and very likely did not have a saeculum. Even more backwards than even China in the 19th century. For a lot of these societies this is likely the first saeculum or maybe the second they have been through.

Originally Posted by Tristan

Well in South Africa that ended around 1948 with the establishment of Apartheid. In Sub-Saharan Africa you are essentially dealing with societies which were very 'traditional' until quite recently and very likely did not have a saeculum. Even more backwards than even China in the 19th century. For a lot of these societies this is likely the first saeculum or maybe the second they have been through.

No saeculum? Humans don't shed human nature and society doesn't stand still just because it lacks modernity.

Originally Posted by 1990

No saeculum? Humans don't shed human nature and society doesn't stand still just because it lacks modernity.

Aye. There is no saeculum if it doesn't work in all civilizations.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Aye. There is no saeculum if it doesn't work in all civilizations.

Strauss & Howe found one in Homer's Achaean society described in The Iliad and The Odyssey. They found another in the Book of Genesis: Moses through Joshua.

You've all heard me (at tiresome length) on the Dying Republic Saeculum in Ancient Rome (and yes, Sulla's dictatorship was, alas, a First Turning.) Anyone who reads Mary Renault could track the Golden Age of Athens Saeculum.

John Xenakis charted them for England from 1066 (and all that) through the present. As a dabbler in Medieval Studies, I tend to agree with what he found.

I figure five counterexample pretty well establish the possible existence thereof, though one could probably argue with three of them.

Dear Matt,

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

> I'm giving the commencement speech at my graduation ceremony.

Congratulations!

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Dear Pat,

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

> Strauss & Howe found one in Homer's Achaean society described in
> The Iliad and The Odyssey. They found another in the Book of
> Genesis: Moses through Joshua.

> You've all heard me (at tiresome length) on the Dying Republic
> Saeculum in Ancient Rome (and yes, Sulla's dictatorship was, alas,
> a First Turning.) Anyone who reads Mary Renault could track the
> Golden Age of Athens Saeculum.

> John Xenakis charted them for England from 1066 (and all that)
> through the present. As a dabbler in Medieval Studies, I tend to
> agree with what he found.

> I figure five counterexample pretty well establish the possible
> existence thereof, though one could probably argue with three of
> them.

Not only that, but you can use the fact that the population grows
faster than the food supply to prove that genocidal crisis wars must
occur at regular intervals. This alone doesn't prove anything about
the generational constellation, but it does prove that some kind of
genocidal war cycle must exist. Then when you look at many kinds of
animals, you discover that their populations also go through
growth/death cycles, usually because of starvation and interactions
with predators. What makes human beings different from animals is
that they're intelligent, and when an entire population is facing
starvation, they don't die quietly; they start a genocidal war. The
survivors then have all the food they want.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Originally Posted by 1990

No saeculum? Humans don't shed human nature and society doesn't stand still just because it lacks modernity.

Most of Sub-Saharan Africa was made up of "primitive" (AKA non-civilizational) societies and non-civilizational societies are generally too traditional to have a saeculum.

Originally Posted by Odin

Most of Sub-Saharan Africa was made up of "primitive" (AKA non-civilizational) societies and non-civilizational societies are generally too traditional to have a saeculum.

Maybe their saecula are harder to figure out because of the lack of written records, but that doesn't mean there is no saeculum. The rhythms of human history will happen (theoretically) no matter what. Maybe cavemen had no saeculum, but surely after the agricultural revolution there was one.

I suspect the only place where a saeculum is not present is in a nomadic culture, or one with an extremely small population. Otherwise, there is absolutely no reason to suggest that a saeculum would not be present. It transcends technology, the written word, and large cities. Those who can't identify one use a faulty paradigm.

Well, if it helps at all, we were definitely right to put Algeria in 3T and not 1T (in other words, War of Independence was Crisis war, not civil war in the 1990s):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6664165.stm

Algeria just had an election. Turnout was abysmally low and anxiety is rising.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Dear Pat,



Not only that, but you can use the fact that the population grows
faster than the food supply to prove that genocidal crisis wars must
occur at regular intervals. This alone doesn't prove anything about
the generational constellation, but it does prove that some kind of
genocidal war cycle must exist. Then when you look at many kinds of
animals, you discover that their populations also go through
growth/death cycles, usually because of starvation and interactions
with predators. What makes human beings different from animals is
that they're intelligent, and when an entire population is facing
starvation, they don't die quietly; they start a genocidal war. The
survivors then have all the food they want.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

I'm not convinced that population growth will predictably outstrip the food supply -- should humanity approach ZPG. The most advanced countries in economics and technology seem to have negative natural population growth. That itself bodes well for preventing the overpopulation that makes warfare tempting to pathological leaders. Pampered people will not want to go to the trenches to be mowed down in the manner of World War I or even be consigned to the armaments sweatshops. It's worth remembering that in 1933 Germans endured the lowest industrial wages in Europe except for the Soviet Union and that the Nazis kept wages abysmal with wage freezes despite a recovery.

I can't deny that financial panics will continue to menace societies that choose to rely upon the Ponzi schemes of speculation in stock markets and real estate. Workers who recognize that their wages are adequate to support them don't need to risk everything on playing the market. Without the pressure of people upon urban real estate, people won't see wild rises in real estate prices that allow early owners to wax rich and young workers to experience economic distress.

Even if Europe, sixty-two years after the last pervasive Crisis Era (most countries seem to be forced to that schedule even if they missed the WWII Crisis) ended , seems due for a classic Crisis, it would seem that international tensions within Europe are as slight as ever. I can't imagine the German Army forcing its way into northern France as it did in 1871 or 1940 or across the eastern border into Poland. Most countries are even using the same currency. Extremist causes are marginal everywhere. As for the disaffected Muslim minorities... the disaffected among them could be isolated easily.

I don't claim this out of hope. I think that Jammu and Kashmir, the Caucasus region, Central Asia, the Korean Peninsula, and the Middle East are powder kegs capable of sudden blowups.

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/

According to one of the entries on this economics blog, Tanzania seems to be either in a First Turning. Any data on this?

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/

According to one of the entries on this economics blog, Tanzania seems to be either in a First Turning. Any data on this?

Tanzania has somewhat eluded me. ATM I have them being on the 1T/2T cusp, probably early awakening. I think they had a crisis war with Uganda in the late 70s, early 80s.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

http://www.marginalrevolution.com/

According to one of the entries on this economics blog, Tanzania seems to be either in a First Turning. Any data on this?

Maybe really late 1T. Easton and I have Uganda and Tanzania on the same timeline, with possible 4Ts beginning with independence and ending after a war between the two countries in 1979.

Originally Posted by 1990

Well, if it helps at all, we were definitely right to put Algeria in 3T and not 1T (in other words, War of Independence was Crisis war, not civil war in the 1990s):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6664165.stm

Algeria just had an election. Turnout was abysmally low and anxiety is rising.

Algeria like the Middle East and North Africa is currently in a Third Turning. I feel the last 4T ran from around c.1940-c.1960, about the time the Algerian war of independence was occurring. The last 2T was from c.1978-c.1998, it was triggered by the Iranian revolution and set off the Islamic Resurgence across the whole region.

I'm a fairly orthodox believer in Strauss and Howe's theories. When I study countries and regions I look at the broad picture of how society reacts to events around them and it's mood. I can get a reading from a lot of world that it is on roughly the same saeculum as us, i.e Late 3T or Very Early 4T. The generational lineup is familiar to me an Australian.

Places I am convinced are on roughly the same saeculum as us (North America, Europe, Russia, Indian Sub-Continent, China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Southern Africa, Oceania). Japan, Korea and the Middle East are the only places I am convinced so far are on a different saeculum to us, you observe them in great depth their generational lineup is different to our own.

Latin America I am undecided, although I get a feeling places like Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile are on the same saeculum, like in the USA the 60's and 70's was a time of youth radicalism in those countries. For example the little I know about the years of the Juntas in Argentina, also Allende and Pinochet regimes in Chile feels a lot like an awakening.

I have had trouble placing South Africa and its neighbors. This new Angus-Reid poll may be surprisingly illuminating, however...

"Would you say the level of criminal activity in South Africa has increased, stayed the same, or decreased over the past year?"

Increased - 75%
Stayed the same - 16%
Decreased - 9%

Now, as we know from S&H, crime typically increases during the 2T and peaks during the 3T, when reducing crime becomes of the top priority for government. Indeed, President Thabo Mbeki is vowing to lower crime and boost the number of police officers. (Wow, this brings back memories of Clinton and the '90s)

Now, here's the thing. I doubt South Africa is 4T, because crime would be falling, and even if it weren't falling noticeably, it wouldn't be so much of a political issue as civic concerns would be given priority over conquering social pathologies. I also doubt it is 1T because I don't remember any kind of Crisis in this country in the 1990s.

So the real question is whether the fall of Apartheid, release of Mandela, and beginning of democracy in South Africa (all of which happened from 1990-1994) were 1T or 2T events.

Originally Posted by 1990

I have had trouble placing South Africa and its neighbors. This new Angus-Reid poll may be surprisingly illuminating, however...

"Would you say the level of criminal activity in South Africa has increased, stayed the same, or decreased over the past year?"

Increased - 75%
Stayed the same - 16%
Decreased - 9%

Now, as we know from S&H, crime typically increases during the 2T and peaks during the 3T, when reducing crime becomes of the top priority for government. Indeed, President Thabo Mbeki is vowing to lower crime and boost the number of police officers. (Wow, this brings back memories of Clinton and the '90s)

Now, here's the thing. I doubt South Africa is 4T, because crime would be falling, and even if it weren't falling noticeably, it wouldn't be so much of a political issue as civic concerns would be given priority over conquering social pathologies. I also doubt it is 1T because I don't remember any kind of Crisis in this country in the 1990s.

So the real question is whether the fall of Apartheid, release of Mandela, and beginning of democracy in South Africa (all of which happened from 1990-1994) were 1T or 2T events.

Tread carefully! Looking at perception of crime statistics isn't enough for turning determination!

We have it as early 3T. I haven't looked into their crisis much, but do you have any evidence to the contrary?

1990,

Beginning next week, I'll be ready to roll again!

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

1990,

Beginning next week, I'll be ready to roll again!

Yay!!! I can't wait to get back to this project!

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Tread carefully! Looking at perception of crime statistics isn't enough for turning determination!

We have it as early 3T. I haven't looked into their crisis much, but do you have any evidence to the contrary?

No real evidence to the contrary as it has been quite hard to identify a real 4T in this country. We have it as 3T because that's what John X. said, based on a 4T beginning circa 1948 with the beginning of apartheid (which sounded like rising xenophobia and early nativist measures by politicians a la Smoot-Hawley).

But there was, from what I could tell, no crisis war in the 1950s. Nothing really obvious at least. Between 1966 and 1990, the story of South Africa seems to be world pariah, tightly controlled, evil policies...then suddenly in 1990, Mandela is released and what would look like a 2T begins.

Like I say, no really obvious Crisis though.

EDIT: If c. 1948-1966 was a 4T, which seems the only reasonable case I can make, then there was no crisis war. But, the 4T mood is there: massive political overhaul and oppression, civil disobedience, mass arrests, riots (which are more of an "uprising" nature than a student movement)...the Sharpeville Massacre might be considered the climax of the 4T?

There was growing black student resistance to apartheid after the late 1960s, but since it was a 1T the effect was small-scale. And of course the early 1990s were the next time things really changed. (Under our previous conclusion, this was the beginning of a 2T)

Originally Posted by 1990

No real evidence to the contrary as it has been quite hard to identify a real 4T in this country. We have it as 3T because that's what John X. said, based on a 4T beginning circa 1948 with the beginning of apartheid (which sounded like rising xenophobia and early nativist measures by politicians a la Smoot-Hawley).

But there was, from what I could tell, no crisis war in the 1950s. Nothing really obvious at least. Between 1966 and 1990, the story of South Africa seems to be world pariah, tightly controlled, evil policies...then suddenly in 1990, Mandela is released and what would look like a 2T begins.

Like I say, no really obvious Crisis though.

EDIT: If c. 1948-1966 was a 4T, which seems the only reasonable case I can make, then there was no crisis war. But, the 4T mood is there: massive political overhaul and oppression, civil disobedience, mass arrests, riots (which are more of an "uprising" nature than a student movement)...the Sharpeville Massacre might be considered the climax of the 4T?

There was growing black student resistance to apartheid after the late 1960s, but since it was a 1T the effect was small-scale. And of course the early 1990s were the next time things really changed. (Under our previous conclusion, this was the beginning of a 2T)

Like I've said, I don't know much about South Africa. I think the Second Boer war (end 1902) was a Crisis, so it would make sense to have another one around that time. The only other possibility is that there hasn't been a Crisis since then, which would put it in the same category as West-Central Africa.

If the ~1960 period wasn't a Crisis, apt comparisons could be made to countries like Ireland, Russia, and Turkey where around the 60 year mark, there was some conflict that failed to explode into something bigger. I can't be sure with my lack of knowledge on the subject, but I don't believe this is the case here.

I'd like to hear what John X. has to say about it.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Like I've said, I don't know much about South Africa. I think the Second Boer war (end 1902) was a Crisis, so it would make sense to have another one around that time. The only other possibility is that there hasn't been a Crisis since then, which would put it in the same category as West-Central Africa.

If the ~1960 period wasn't a Crisis, apt comparisons could be made to countries like Ireland, Russia, and Turkey where around the 60 year mark, there was some conflict that failed to explode into something bigger. I can't be sure with my lack of knowledge on the subject, but I don't believe this is the case here.

I'd like to hear what John X. has to say about it.

I feel the Boer war was an awakening war, sure was for the British and most likely for The Boers as well. It would make sense since the Great Trek most likely occured in another awakening (1830's). This is on the basis on the strong feeling I get that South Africa during the 70's and 80's when the Black resistance to apartheid began to gain strength again. The 1970's saw a massive upsurge in political unrest in South Africa, including the 1976 Schools revolt which saw Black school students across the country revolt.

The end of awakening occured probably when De Klerk became president and freed Nelson Mandela from office. De Klerk (b. 1936) came from a different generation from preceeding presidents and prime ministers of South Africa. I get a feeling he was an Adaptive, while the previous leaders were either Nomads or Civics.

Might I add South African society has literally unravelled since the end of apartheid. In Third Turning, social order is at a nadir, societies in High eras are generally stable with a lot of social order.

My opinions about the saeculum across the globe go as the following.


Currently in a 3T/4T cusp period; Europe, Russia, China, Indian Sub-Continent, North America, Oceania.

Currently nearly half way through a 3T: Middle East and North Africa

Currently in a 2T/3T cusp period: Japan

Unsure: Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, South-East Asia (Although I am leaning towards 3T/4T cusp period for South-East Asia).