Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Official 'Map Project' Thread - Page 6







Post#126 at 05-31-2007 10:32 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
05-31-2007, 10:32 AM #126
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by Tristan View Post
My opinions about the saeculum across the globe go as the following.


Currently in a 3T/4T cusp period; Europe, Russia, China, Indian Sub-Continent, North America, Oceania.

Currently nearly half way through a 3T: Middle East and North Africa

Currently in a 2T/3T cusp period: Japan

Unsure: Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, South-East Asia (Although I am leaning towards 3T/4T cusp period for South-East Asia).
I don't think you can be so general. Maybe Thailand and Burma are on a 4T cusp, but Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos sure aren't (hello!). Also I don't think Latin America is entirely on the same saeculum: Mexico's crisis ended in the late 1920s (I say 1929 with the end of the Cristero War), Costa Rica's in 1948, Nicaragua's in 1990, El Salvador's in 1992, Guatemala's around 1983, Colombia's in 1958...

I really doubt all of Sub-Saharan Africa is in synch too, what with the Congos, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Rwanda, and Burundi being 4T on the 1995 timeline; Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Angola, Nigeria, and Mozambique on the 1975 timeline; even Cameroon and Kenya on the 1955 timeline. There is no hard-and-fast rule in Africa. Every country needs to be looked at carefully.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#127 at 06-10-2007 12:38 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
---
06-10-2007, 12:38 PM #127
Join Date
May 2003
Location
Cambridge, MA
Posts
4,010

Dear Matt and Nathaniel,

Is the map project now dead?

I would like to exhort you to put together a written summary of your
work.

If you don't, then all the dozens or hundreds of hours that you've
spent will be completely lost and wasted.

If you do, then you'll have a document that will greatly enhance your
college studies. Furthermore, this document will be referenced by
possibly thousands of people and, if generational theory ever takes
off, will be one of the major founding documents of the theory.

What's needed is this kind of information for every country: The
current turning; a summary of recent turnings and crisis wars; a 2-3
paragraph narrative that ties it all together; any other information
you've collected, including fault lines and relationships with other
countries. Where there are disagreements, just say that "some people
think this was a crisis war, some people disagree," and give the
reasons and alternatives.

I and other people in this forum will undoubtedly be willing to help
you.

I strongly urge you to make plans to get this done this summer. Once
the fall comes, you'll both be involved in other things, and the
opportunity will be completely lost.

At the very least, get it started right away and do the easiest
countries first, Then add the more difficult countries as time
allows.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#128 at 06-10-2007 02:14 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-10-2007, 02:14 PM #128
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Dear Matt and Nathaniel,

Is the map project now dead?
Not at all.

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
I would like to exhort you to put together a written summary of your
work.

If you don't, then all the dozens or hundreds of hours that you've
spent will be completely lost and wasted.

If you do, then you'll have a document that will greatly enhance your
college studies. Furthermore, this document will be referenced by
possibly thousands of people and, if generational theory ever takes
off, will be one of the major founding documents of the theory.
And then...the world!!!!

Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
What's needed is this kind of information for every country: The
current turning; a summary of recent turnings and crisis wars; a 2-3
paragraph narrative that ties it all together; any other information
you've collected, including fault lines and relationships with other
countries. Where there are disagreements, just say that "some people
think this was a crisis war, some people disagree," and give the
reasons and alternatives.

I and other people in this forum will undoubtedly be willing to help
you.

I strongly urge you to make plans to get this done this summer. Once
the fall comes, you'll both be involved in other things, and the
opportunity will be completely lost.

At the very least, get it started right away and do the easiest
countries first, Then add the more difficult countries as time
allows.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
We definitely want to do this. Matt, didn't you say you'd be able to get at least partially back on track after a few more weeks?
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#129 at 06-10-2007 08:14 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-10-2007, 08:14 PM #129
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
We definitely want to do this. Matt, didn't you say you'd be able to get at least partially back on track after a few more weeks?
I'm ready now. Sort of. I have a job, but I can do a sizable amount. Where are we again?







Post#130 at 06-10-2007 11:22 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-10-2007, 11:22 PM #130
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I'm ready now. Sort of. I have a job, but I can do a sizable amount. Where are we again?
Aimlessly treking (trekking? Spelling, someone!) through Africa. Southern African countries still in need of research along with odds and ends: Benin, Guinea, Gabon, Togo, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and the islands - Seychelles, Comoros, Cape Verde...

After Africa, we have some Latin America and Caribbean to confront.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#131 at 06-11-2007 11:23 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-11-2007, 11:23 PM #131
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Aimlessly treking (trekking? Spelling, someone!) through Africa. Southern African countries still in need of research along with odds and ends: Benin, Guinea, Gabon, Togo, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and the islands - Seychelles, Comoros, Cape Verde...

After Africa, we have some Latin America and Caribbean to confront.
Benin: Right now I have Nigerian Civil War + Political Instability (through 1977) as the crisis with 75%-80% certainty. 2T

The most likely scenario with Guinea is that they are on the same timeline as the rest of West Africa, i.e. a fifth turning. Is there any evidence to suggest otherwise?

Gabon: No clue? Bad histories. Maybe you have something better.

Togo: Pretty similar. I have a few contenders. What do you have?

Senegal: ?

Guinea-Bissau: ? Are we seeing a pattern here? We'll need more conclusive evidence. I've looked at the previous four countries but couldn't find much. Perhaps you can?







Post#132 at 06-11-2007 11:42 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-11-2007, 11:42 PM #132
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Benin: Right now I have Nigerian Civil War + Political Instability (through 1977) as the crisis with 75%-80% certainty. 2T
Excellent. I was always leaning that way but was never sure.

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
The most likely scenario with Guinea is that they are on the same timeline as the rest of West Africa, i.e. a fifth turning. Is there any evidence to suggest otherwise?
Well, there might have been a 4T from ~1966-1984, but it's a weak case. A lot of West Africa (save Sierra Leone and Liberia) seems to be 5T or worse.

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Gabon: No clue? Bad histories. Maybe you have something better.

Togo: Pretty similar. I have a few contenders. What do you have?

Senegal: ?

Guinea-Bissau: ? Are we seeing a pattern here? We'll need more conclusive evidence. I've looked at the previous four countries but couldn't find much. Perhaps you can?
Indeed, all these countries are pretty hairy. Gabon has almost NOTHING, and Guinea-Bissau isn't much better.

Togo has more info: it was taken by the Germans in 1884 and was then surrendered to the French and British in early WWI. Independence was achieved in 1960 after an independence struggle that was not 4Tish at all: no massacres, revolts, revolutions, or even mass demonstrations from what I can see. There were a couple of coups in the 1960s, and President Eyadema ruled as de facto dictator from 1967 until 2005 (). But while there were political reforms and controversy throughout the 1990s, there wasn't enough furor for it to be a 2T, and certainly not a 4T. This one may just be another 5T or 6Ter. Can this country really have not had the cycle reset since the 1880s? Or was WWI the Crisis?

The timeline for Senegal is identical to the rest of West Africa in that it was colonized in 1895. And like Togo, it became independent in 1960, soon to see a coup. Unlike most of Africa, and like Europe, Togo saw massive student demonstrations in 1968 and 1973 (but were these just due to international influence or were they enough to reflect a real 2T in the country?). In the late 1980s tensions and tempers rose, with an armed separatist group waging guerrilla war in southern Senegal and border clashes with Mauritania.

Still, "rising tension" usually means 3T if it isn't enough to reset the clock. I still don't see a clear 4T in this country. Perhaps nearly the entirety of West Africa is overdue, and if so, this is a very intriguing anomaly.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#133 at 06-11-2007 11:44 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-11-2007, 11:44 PM #133
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Afrikkka

I'm not going to bother with Seychelles. Their population and geography won't lead me anywhere.

Comoros: Better, but it occurred to me that they would be on the same timeline as Madagascar. A quick run-through of their history supports this as they were once a part of Madagascar before declaring independence in 1947, which, if you recall, was the same year as the Madagascar revolt. Evidence of an awakening is found in 1968 especially, with some support in the 1970s. 3T/4T cusp so 4T.

Cape Verde is an especially interesting situation that will require some thoroughness. I'm seeing signs of a potato famine anomaly.

****

It occurred to me that while looking over West Africa, I skipped Guinea-Bissau for the reason that I don't like looking at small countries when bigger ones surround it, as I need to become more acquainted with the region. So a country like Guinea-Bissau would not typically be the best starting point.

I could be wrong, though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese_Colonial_War
Notice the two other African countries had crisis wars in this conflict (although Mozambique's carried on), why not Guinea-Bissau?

And what's with these weird names? Confuse much.







Post#134 at 06-11-2007 11:57 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-11-2007, 11:57 PM #134
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I'm not going to bother with Seychelles. Their population and geography won't lead me anywhere.

Comoros: Better, but it occurred to me that they would be on the same timeline as Madagascar. A quick run-through of their history supports this as they were once a part of Madagascar before declaring independence in 1947, which, if you recall, was the same year as the Madagascar revolt. Evidence of an awakening is found in 1968 especially, with some support in the 1970s. 3T/4T cusp so 4T.

Cape Verde is an especially interesting situation that will require some thoroughness. I'm seeing signs of a potato famine anomaly.

****

It occurred to me that while looking over West Africa, I skipped Guinea-Bissau for the reason that I don't like looking at small countries when bigger ones surround it, as I need to become more acquainted with the region. So a country like Guinea-Bissau would not typically be the best starting point.

I could be wrong, though. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portuguese_Colonial_War
Notice the two other African countries had crisis wars in this conflict (although Mozambique's carried on), why not Guinea-Bissau?

And what's with these weird names? Confuse much.
I like your thoughts on the Comoros. Microstates like that often do gravitate to their neighbors on the saeculum, and 1947 would be the perfect year for a 4T climax there.

The thing with Guinea-Bissau's War of Independence is that, unlike the civil wars in Angola and Mozambique, it did not become total war, but instead is often described in encyclopedias as an armed struggle with "sporadic" (there's that awful word again) violence. Maybe an aborted crisis war, as Xenakis would say. Or maybe something no more convincingly 4T than The Troubles.

The 1974 Portuguese revolution had major effects throughout the Portuguese colonies. In Angola and Mozambique, civil war broke out. Yet in Guinea-Bissau, a low-level armed struggle held steady without a clear climax. And in Cape Verde, we could be looking at what Xenakis or you would call an "aborted crisis war". Says Encarta, "A revolution in Portugal in 1974 sparked mass mobilizations in Cape Verde, which prompted the new Portuguese government to negotiate with the PAIGC. Talks culminated in independence for Cape Verde on July 5, 1975, ending five centuries of Portuguese rule. Although the original constitution envisioned eventual unification with Guinea-Bissau, a coup in that country in 1980 resulted in strained relations and the dropping of plans for unity."
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#135 at 06-12-2007 12:07 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-12-2007, 12:07 AM #135
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

I'm tired. Will respond tomorrow.







Post#136 at 06-13-2007 02:04 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-13-2007, 02:04 AM #136
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Excellent. I was always leaning that way but was never sure.

Well, there might have been a 4T from ~1966-1984, but it's a weak case. A lot of West Africa (save Sierra Leone and Liberia) seems to be 5T or worse.

Indeed, all these countries are pretty hairy. Gabon has almost NOTHING, and Guinea-Bissau isn't much better.

Togo has more info: it was taken by the Germans in 1884 and was then surrendered to the French and British in early WWI. Independence was achieved in 1960 after an independence struggle that was not 4Tish at all: no massacres, revolts, revolutions, or even mass demonstrations from what I can see. There were a couple of coups in the 1960s, and President Eyadema ruled as de facto dictator from 1967 until 2005 (). But while there were political reforms and controversy throughout the 1990s, there wasn't enough furor for it to be a 2T, and certainly not a 4T. This one may just be another 5T or 6Ter. Can this country really have not had the cycle reset since the 1880s? Or was WWI the Crisis?
Independence was granted to many African nations during the 1950s and 1960s and was not necessarily brought on by the people. So I don't know.

The timeline for Senegal is identical to the rest of West Africa in that it was colonized in 1895. And like Togo, it became independent in 1960, soon to see a coup. Unlike most of Africa, and like Europe, Togo saw massive student demonstrations in 1968 and 1973 (but were these just due to international influence or were they enough to reflect a real 2T in the country?). In the late 1980s tensions and tempers rose, with an armed separatist group waging guerrilla war in southern Senegal and border clashes with Mauritania.
Do you mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casamance_Conflict ?

Still, "rising tension" usually means 3T if it isn't enough to reset the clock. I still don't see a clear 4T in this country. Perhaps nearly the entirety of West Africa is overdue, and if so, this is a very intriguing anomaly.

I like your thoughts on the Comoros. Microstates like that often do gravitate to their neighbors on the saeculum, and 1947 would be the perfect year for a 4T climax there.

The thing with Guinea-Bissau's War of Independence is that, unlike the civil wars in Angola and Mozambique, it did not become total war, but instead is often described in encyclopedias as an armed struggle with "sporadic" (there's that awful word again) violence. Maybe an aborted crisis war, as Xenakis would say. Or maybe something no more convincingly 4T than The Troubles.
Look into it. It's really difficult to get a feel for the countries but it's worth a shot.







Post#137 at 06-13-2007 02:12 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-13-2007, 02:12 AM #137
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Oops

I have Tajikistan 4T when it should be 1T. Fixed.







Post#138 at 06-14-2007 06:30 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-14-2007, 06:30 PM #138
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Independence was granted to many African nations during the 1950s and 1960s and was not necessarily brought on by the people. So I don't know.



Do you mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casamance_Conflict ?



Look into it. It's really difficult to get a feel for the countries but it's worth a shot.
I'm wondering if the Guinea-Bissau Civil War of the late 1990s was 4T. Wiki doesn't know the casualty numbers, but 350,000 displaced. Isn't that a lot for a small country?
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#139 at 06-15-2007 12:45 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-15-2007, 12:45 AM #139
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

I have Zimbabwe as a 2T, following the Crisis that is the Rhodesian Bush War (1966-1979). This story suggests a future collapse:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6751671.stm







Post#140 at 06-15-2007 12:50 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-15-2007, 12:50 AM #140
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
I'm wondering if the Guinea-Bissau Civil War of the late 1990s was 4T. Wiki doesn't know the casualty numbers, but 350,000 displaced. Isn't that a lot for a small country?
1990, what you will have to do is find a really good source, and just for an hour, immerse yourself in the war. Try to see the emotion involved. Is it political, or is it a visceral roller-coaster ride?







Post#141 at 06-16-2007 01:28 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-16-2007, 01:28 AM #141
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Turn left at Cuba

You can continue researching those countries, but I'm prepared to leave Africa for now. I'm becoming frustrated with the numerous oddities (not anomalies), which throws my whole analysis into question. There are many unanswered questions that I don't have the resources nor the understanding to solve.

I shall return.

But for now, I'd like to turn to South America.







Post#142 at 06-16-2007 02:26 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-16-2007, 02:26 AM #142
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

The first identifiable saeculum in Northern South America, and certainly the best way to begin, is with the South American Wars of Independence. Modeled after and resembling the American Revolution (except a wee bit bloodier), it is clearly a Crisis War, having all the necessary components of 4T mood and energy.

From there, Bolivar set up his dream of a Gran Colombia, which quickly collapsed. According to Wikipedia, it contained present-day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama, and part of Costa Rica, Peru, Brazil and Guyana. These were also the countries (plus Bolivia) that took place in the South American Wars of Independence.

Map of Gran Colombia:



Colombia is a cut and dry case, with the Crises clearly being the War of a Thousand Days (1899-1902) and La Volencia (1948-1958). The mid-cycle between these periods are short (46 years is on the low end, but there have been worse), but they resemble Crises so clearly. This would place Colombia in a 3T right now.

Venezuela hasn't had the same level of violence, and there really isn't an identifiable Crisis War since the Wars of Independence. The most likely scenario at this point is that they have been closely inter-connected with Colombia and have shared their Crises, either as aborted Crisis Wars or through the 'Switzlerand complex.' This is supported by the 2T occurring in Venezuela in the 1980s and 1990s and a 3T today, with counter-revolutionary revolutionaries countering the Bolivarian Revolution (they have been taking his name -- Bolivar has been long dead) in Nomad (Reactive) fashion.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...070530#e070530

I'll switch gears and move to South-Central South America.

As for Paraguay, it's clear and obvious that the War of the Triple Alliance (1864-1870) was a Crisis War. From there, I think the Chaco War (1932-1935) between Paraguay and Bolivia was their next Crisis War. This isn't nearly as in your face, but it is the best candidate so far. There was a rebellion/Civil War in 1947, which is unexpected in a 1T, but it clearly was a political war. This would make Paraguay a 4T.

What I'm lacking is a clear 2T in the 1950s and 1960s in Paraguay. I assume this is due to the Dictatorship (1954-1989) and isolation from the international community. In other words, it was probably there, but it's hard to find.







Post#143 at 06-16-2007 03:57 AM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
---
06-16-2007, 03:57 AM #143
Join Date
Oct 2003
Location
Melbourne, Australia
Posts
1,249

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
The first identifiable saeculum in Northern South America, and certainly the best way to begin, is with the South American Wars of Independence. Modeled after and resembling the American Revolution (except a wee bit bloodier), it is clearly a Crisis War, having all the necessary components of 4T mood and energy.

From there, Bolivar set up his dream of a Gran Colombia, which quickly collapsed. According to Wikipedia, it contained present-day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama, and part of Costa Rica, Peru, Brazil and Guyana. These were also the countries (plus Bolivia) that took place in the South American Wars of Independence.

Map of Gran Colombia:



Colombia is a cut and dry case, with the Crises clearly being the War of a Thousand Days (1899-1902) and La Volencia (1948-1958). The mid-cycle between these periods are short (46 years is on the low end, but there have been worse), but they resemble Crises so clearly. This would place Colombia in a 3T right now.
Between the end of a 4T and start of another 4T there are 60 years. Maybe either one of the two was a 2T conflict. 2T's often are quite violent times, some really awful wars have occurred in 2T's (The Thirty Years War, Lebanese Civil War, English Civil War etc). 2T wars for the most part solve nothing for instance after the English Civil War, a commonwealth was established, however turned into a dictatorship and after the dictator Cromwell died, the monarchy overthrown in that civil war was restored.


As for Paraguay, it's clear and obvious that the War of the Triple Alliance (1864-1870) was a Crisis War. From there, I think the Chaco War (1932-1935) between Paraguay and Bolivia was their next Crisis War. This isn't nearly as in your face, but it is the best candidate so far. There was a rebellion/Civil War in 1947, which is unexpected in a 1T, but it clearly was a political war. This would make Paraguay a 4T.

What I'm lacking is a clear 2T in the 1950s and 1960s in Paraguay. I assume this is due to the Dictatorship (1954-1989) and isolation from the international community. In other words, it was probably there, but it's hard to find.
Maybe there are different saeculums between the North and South of South America.

From what I know of the mood of countries like Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Chile and Argentina especially seemed to be in a 2T at the same time we did. I've have read a little about the generations they describe in Brazil they match up with the west's

Here an articles from 1995, describing X'er peers there.

Young and restful
Brazilian teenagers and Brazil's generation X are not different from their counterpart in the US. The twentysomething crowd loves comfort without unrestrained consumption, freedom but not anarchy, self realization without satisfying all its whims. They want a fulfilling job and career and a happy family. And what a Brazilian youngster wouldn't like to be at all? A politician.
Katheryn Gallant

They think that they're funny and original. They trust themselves -- and distrust politicians as much as a tennis net would distrust a ball. They want to go to college and have a successful career. Although money isn't everything , they nevertheless yearn for a comfortable life, a nice home, a happy family. They watch TV, listen to CDs and go out a lot with their friends. They aren't into long philosophical discussions. They devour hamburgers and pizza. They are also far more at home with computers than their parents, or even most of their older brothers and sisters.

A brief sketch of US teenagers of the 1990s? Think again. In the shopping malls and high schools of Brazil, millions of middle-class adolescents conform almost perfectly to the pattern set by American youth. Nor is it strictly a Brazilian phenomenon. For the first time in human civilization, there exists on a global scale a generation of people who wear, hear, see, want and even feel the same things.

Most of us have long perceived that young people around the world are highly influenced by the cultural clout -- and catchy advertising campaigns -- of the United States. As reported by Brazilian newsweekly Veja, the American advertising agency D'Arcy, Masius, Benton & Bowles (DMB&B), based in New York, recently decided to prove that thesis. They surveyed a total of 6547 teenagers, aged 15 to 18, living in 26 countries on five continents, all from families earning the equivalent of at least $25,000 a year. In Brazil, the local affiliate of DMB&B interviewed 448 students at private schools in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.

Middle-class teens of whatever country show an astonishing similarity in ambitions, hobbies and concerns. Unlike the young people of the '60s, few teens nowadays think of themselves as rebels (only 6% of Brazilians would describe themselves as rebellious, while one-fourth of US teenagers lay that claim), and 64% of Brazilian teens claim to trust their parents. (However, 76% of American adolescents say that they confide in Mom and/or Dad.) Says Maria Eduarda Guaraná, a 15-year-old Carioca (from Rio de Janeiro), " I have a great relationship with my parents. The dialogue is open and the exchange of ideas is constant." Adds Daniela Guadelha, 17, "I try to do what my parents tell me to, since they're more experienced."

An anti-yuppie bunch -- Unlike teenagers of previous generations, the end-of-millennium edition can be described as an extremely moderate optimist -- or perhaps a realist. Only 17% of Brazilian youth believe that the world will improve in their lifetimes. "I'd like to live in a more just society, with a decent life for everybody, but I don't think it's possible," says Carioca Gustavo de Moraes, 18. But many young people do not give in to despair. In Brazil, 35% of teens (admittedly, from the top fifth of the economic ladder) believe that people like them can make a difference in the world. (American kids are considerably more hopeful about the future -- over a third say that the world will improve in their lifetimes -- but about as many believe that people like them can decisively influence events.)

The '90s generation abhors the yuppie excesses of the previous decade. The teens of today do not wish to take a vow of poverty -- far from it. They crave a comfortable life, which means the latest consumer goods without conspicuous consumption. But even more resoundingly, modern adolescents aspire to have a job that they enjoy. "It's sad to see people who don't like what they do for a living. I don't want to be like that," says Paulista (from São Paulo) José Thomaz de Luca, 16. One occupation in particular is regarded with disdain: politics. A mere 3% of Brazilian kids (as opposed to 20% of their contemporaries in the US) dream of being elected to public office, and barely 1% of Brazil's most privileged youth even trust the current crop of politicians. (In the US, a hardly more noticeable 4% say that they believe the nation's officeholders.)

It may be thought that middle-class adolescents have an almost limitless freedom of choice, compared with poorer kids, and even affluent youth of earlier decades. Nevertheless, according to psychologist Cecília Pescatore Alves, the pressure to be like one's peers is overwhelming. The sources of that pressure, however, might be a surprise. At her office in São Paulo, Pescatore Alves has been consulted by many parents who are worried because their teenaged children are not like their friends' kids of the same age. But this is not the parents' fault, the psychologist claims. "Young people have to be in one of the forms created by the cultural industry to be considered normal (...) It is difficult to be autonomous when a very rigid control of social roles exists."

An adman's dream -- "The globalization of youth is extremely interesting for ad agencies and big business," observes José Teixeira Coelho, professor of cultural politics at the University of São Paulo. "Massification is very convenient for them, in every way." Certainly, as far as business interests are concerned, there are numberless advantages in having a car, a CD or a soda that will be just as popular in Patagonia as in Southeast Asia -- or even in Petrópolis (a mountain resort close to Rio) or Peoria. But the results go far beyond the strictly mercenary.

Psychoanalyst Isabel Khan notices that a global culture (spread especially by television) also means that teens can easily and quickly find out what is happening in every part of the world -- which does not necessarily mean that they get a comprehensive or even a coherent view: " They can sympathize with the cause defended by Nelson Mandela, but hardly know what's going on in the favela (shanty town) a block away from home."

But there is also a beneficial side to teens' increased knowledge of the world, Khan states. "With information coming from all over the place, young people have come to be part of a new and fascinating world clan, which could lessen the chances of future conflicts between countries."

The slightly older contemporaries of the teenagers surveyed by DMB&B also are highly influenced by North American culture. "Generation X," the title of Canadian author Douglas Coupland's 1990 début book of interconnected short stories, has become the catchphrase to describe these young people in their twenties and even early thirties. (At 34, Coupland is in the vanguard of the generation that he christened and has described in four books.) The X-ers, as they are known, share with today's teenagers a yearning for a fulfilling job and a happy family life. However, possibly tempered by a few more years of experience, the twentysomethings are slightly less insistent on gaining material wealth, and somewhat more accepting of individuality, than those under the age of 18.

Staying home until later -- "My generation doesn't know whether it's punk, grunge or something else," stated actress Daniela Schmitz, 26, in the Porto Alegre newspaper Zero Hora. "Previous generations were in the Age of Pisces, and went about in schools of fish. Our generation is in the Age of Aquarius -- we're individualists, and aren't scared of thinking or acting differently."

Régis Montagna, a 27-year-old publicity agent, agrees. "My generation doesn't have any patterns, but we are individualists and don't want to run risks. I only began to live on my own last year. In the previous generation, leaving home at 15 was a sign of maturity. Now it's a sign of foolishness." This delayed departure from the parental nest is as common among Brazilian young adults as in their US counterparts. Part of it might be due to the difficulty for even college graduates to find a job that will comfortably allow them to live on their own, but it is even more a reflection of the generally good relations that these "delayed adolescents" have with mamãe and papai. Observes psychoanalyst Alfredo Jerusalinsky, who is the father of a 23-year-old daughter, "There are almost no conflicts between parents and children."

The X-ers have some less sterling qualities as well. Gilson Alves Bernardo, 27, a volleyball player, admits to one of them. "We know what we want, but are afraid of commitments (...) I think that people who don't want to take on commitments are afraid of looking ridiculous." This does not only, or even primarily, refer to the love life of twentysomethings. Says musician Luciano Leindecker, 23, "People my age don't have banners to rally to. Those which have been lifted up, like ecology, are diluted by the media and the system." Eduardo Bier Corrêa, a 29-year-old businessman, adds, "There isn't any big cause to justify a collective movement nowadays."

Psychoanalyst Jerusalinsky has an explanation: "They arrived too late to be at Woodstock [the legendary rock concert that occurred in New York state in 1969] and to believe in socialist ideals, but too early to try out some other social ideal." The good doctor adds that Generation X is struggling to defend itself from this impasse by seeking its own space by contemplating its own navel.

The doors of perception -- "The '80s and '90s were not a good time to be young," says M.L., a 22-year-old student somewhere in Brazil. Like many teenagers and young adults, M.L. wishes that he could have been old enough to take part in the cultural changes of the 1960s and attend concerts by Jimi Hendrix and Janis Joplin. But M.L. discovered one way to bring back the '60s. For two years, he has used lysergic acid diethylamide, better known as LSD. "I found out about the drug by reading about it," M.L. says. He is not alone. A survey by the US National Institute of Drug Abuse has revealed that LSD use by American teenagers aged 16 to 18, which had been 7.2% in 1975 and fell to 4.4% a decade later, rose to 6.8% in 1993.

Far from the world of the street children -- who are alleged to be sold drugs at low prices in order to become easily addicted to them -- acid has resurged among middle-class Brazilian youth. LSD is frequently sent to Brazil by mail from abroad. Since it is tasteless, odorless and colorless, LSD is not detected. One doesn't need to rely on the post office for the drug, however. If one has the fungus Claviceps purpurea, says Maria Amélia Barata da Silveira, professor of pharmaceutical chemistry at the University of São Paulo (USP), "it's very easy to produce the drug in any laboratory." Naturally, she does not give demonstrations to her students on the technique of synthesizing LSD, but does admit that it is very simple to get hold of books that teach how to make acid. Barata da Silveira emphasizes that all student activities in college labs is strictly controlled and that she is unaware that anyone has ever used the facilities of USP to manufacture LSD.

G.A., a 20-year-old college student, told Brazilian newsweekly Isto É that she first took LSD when she was 14, at a rock concert in the US. "The sensitivity stayed on the surface of my skin. I came to feel in colors and hear the trees." This is common in LSD trips, as well as changes in the perception of time and space. "Sometimes, it's as if a night had lasted an entire month." Not all trips are quite as pleasant, though. "I've already had a bad trip. I got depressed and it was terrible, but it quickly went away," says D.R., 22, an illustrator who claims that he first took acid while watching scenes from Woodstock of 1969.

Living scared -- The much-publicized wave of kidnappings in Brazil (reputedly, there is at least one kidnapping a day in the nation) has inspired alarmed young people of both sexes to carry a gun for protection. Naturally, since most abductions are done in order to get a ransom, these kids come from affluent families. Children of politicians, business executives and diplomats in Brasília are toting revolvers in their belts or purses.

One of these young people -- who preferred not to be identified -- told the Brasília newspaper Correio Braziliense that the kidnapping of Wagner Canhedo Filho in 1994 proved that people have to protect themselves. "The idea that Brasília is a safe city fell by the wayside and everybody is afraid." The firearms are generally not flashed about and their owners don't want to use them except under a serious threat.

V.H., a 20-year-old inhabitant of the wealthy Lago Sul district in Brasília, exemplifies this behavior. He carries a .38 caliber revolver which he bought legally. He took a firearm-safety course and says that he has the self-control to carry a .38: after all, he only has the gun in order to prevent assaults! According to V.H., "there are many boys who just stick a revolver around their waist." He adds that some even own guns that not even the police uses. L.L., 23, who also lives in Lago Sul, owns a .38 caliber Taurus. He bought the revolver after one of his father's friends was kidnapped and shot. "He spent eight months in the hospital and almost died," remembers L.L. "I don't want that to happen to me."

"A skinhead's life is hard. You'd better get used to it." That warning is given to new members of the Gaúcho (from Rio Grande do Sul) group Carecas do Brasil (Baldies of Brazil), after an initiation ritual in which the new recruit, running rapidly through a line composed of the veteran members, is kicked, punched and slapped. Since April 1994, 20 young men have met weekly in a secret location in the Porto Alegre metropolitan area to discuss the future of Brazil and how to spread their ideas in society at large.

In their zines (small handwritten and/or typed periodicals, photocopied by their "publishers" and distributed almost any which way) the skinheads expound their basic beliefs.

Ready to use violence -- Like many skinheads in the US and elsewhere, these carecas are from working class families. Most work during the day, go to night school, live with their parents and contribute their earnings to the family budget. They think that prostitutes and drug addicts are the bane of society, but have a special horror of homosexuals. "I think they're really degenerate," Robinson, the 22-year-old founder of the Porto Alegre branch of Carecas do Brasil, told Zero Hora." It's a disrespect to society."

The skinheads believe in marriage ("but a woman doesn't have to be a virgin to get married," Robinson adds). The traditional family, hard work, going to school and compulsory military service.. "A skinhead has to have not just physical strength but mental strength as well," Robinson says.

The skinheads wear pins of the Brazilian flag and consider themselves fervent nationalists. They want all multinational corporations to be taken over by the Brazilian government, and condemn what they see as the "North American exploitation of Brazil." However, they abhor to be confused with neo-Nazi White Power groups (whose mainstay is in the São Paulo area) and despise the swastika. "We aren't racists, we're nationalists," the carecas insist. "We're fighting against all types of domination." Robinson emphasizes, "Everybody in the suburbs is exploited and the skinheads are struggling against that."

Márcia Regina da Silva, an anthropologists a Pontifícia Universidade Católica (PUC) in São Paulo, has written a book about the skinhead movement in Brazil." Those boys are looking for an identity," she states.

In spite of the different factions (in addition to White Power and Carecas do Brasil, there are also Carecas do Subúrbio and Carecas do ABC), da Silva says that all the skinhead groups are close-knit, exclusive and prone to violence. "They reproduce behavior around the world," she affirms.

Are skinheads violent? "Brazilian reality is more violent than we are," Robinson replies.
The American dream

In common with millions of young Brazilians, Amílcar Figueiredo, a 17-year-old from Petrópolis, Rio de Janeiro state, is fascinated by the US. Last year he came to the Los Angeles suburb of Montclair as an exchange student.

"Brazilian and American kids both have the same goals," Figueiredo says. "They want to graduate from college and they like to have fun."

He has noticed some differences though. "Brazilian kids act friendly more easily. American kids take a longer time to trust, but when they do, they are friends for sure." Figueiredo also likes the easier rapport that exists between young people of different classes in the US. And as an avid tennis player, Figueiredo is delighted that athletics is so prominent in US schools. He has been accepted to Citrus College in Glendora, California, where he will major in electrical engineering.

Says he, "I came to the US to go to college, but my greatest dream is to be a professional tennis player. And I'm certain that I'm on the right path."
X-talk
"The f****** place should be wiped off the face of the earth".

David Bowie on Los Angeles







Post#144 at 06-16-2007 09:23 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-16-2007, 09:23 AM #144
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
1990, what you will have to do is find a really good source, and just for an hour, immerse yourself in the war. Try to see the emotion involved. Is it political, or is it a visceral roller-coaster ride?
Will do, tomorrow probably.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#145 at 06-16-2007 09:26 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-16-2007, 09:26 AM #145
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
The first identifiable saeculum in Northern South America, and certainly the best way to begin, is with the South American Wars of Independence. Modeled after and resembling the American Revolution (except a wee bit bloodier), it is clearly a Crisis War, having all the necessary components of 4T mood and energy.

From there, Bolivar set up his dream of a Gran Colombia, which quickly collapsed. According to Wikipedia, it contained present-day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama, and part of Costa Rica, Peru, Brazil and Guyana. These were also the countries (plus Bolivia) that took place in the South American Wars of Independence.

Map of Gran Colombia:



Colombia is a cut and dry case, with the Crises clearly being the War of a Thousand Days (1899-1902) and La Volencia (1948-1958). The mid-cycle between these periods are short (46 years is on the low end, but there have been worse), but they resemble Crises so clearly. This would place Colombia in a 3T right now.

Venezuela hasn't had the same level of violence, and there really isn't an identifiable Crisis War since the Wars of Independence. The most likely scenario at this point is that they have been closely inter-connected with Colombia and have shared their Crises, either as aborted Crisis Wars or through the 'Switzlerand complex.' This is supported by the 2T occurring in Venezuela in the 1980s and 1990s and a 3T today, with counter-revolutionary revolutionaries countering the Bolivarian Revolution (they have been taking his name -- Bolivar has been long dead) in Nomad (Reactive) fashion.

http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...070530#e070530

I'll switch gears and move to South-Central South America.

As for Paraguay, it's clear and obvious that the War of the Triple Alliance (1864-1870) was a Crisis War. From there, I think the Chaco War (1932-1935) between Paraguay and Bolivia was their next Crisis War. This isn't nearly as in your face, but it is the best candidate so far. There was a rebellion/Civil War in 1947, which is unexpected in a 1T, but it clearly was a political war. This would make Paraguay a 4T.

What I'm lacking is a clear 2T in the 1950s and 1960s in Paraguay. I assume this is due to the Dictatorship (1954-1989) and isolation from the international community. In other words, it was probably there, but it's hard to find.
I do think Colombia and Venezuela are both 3T. Venezuela didn't have La Violencia, but surely there were many Colombian refugees fleeing to Venezuela, and the latter country did have quite a bit of political unrest from the late 1940s through the late 1950s. And of course, the 2T is quite obvious.

In Paraguay, I had seen evidence of a lot of trauma during the 1970s, but it was not a solid case. The Chaco War would have been right on time (62 years after the last 4T) for a new 4T. And the 1947 rebellion might not be 1T, it might be the climax of a 4T.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#146 at 06-16-2007 09:32 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
06-16-2007, 09:32 AM #146
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Tristan,

That article on Brazilian youth in 1995 doesn't sound like Nomads to me. It sounds a lot more like Artists. They trust their parents, only 6% of them call themselves rebels (while the article claims 25% of Xers feel that way; isn't 25% vs. 6% a noticeable difference?), and essentially - according to the article - they want a steady job and a happy family. Well, isn't that the Silent Man in the Grey Flannel Suit of the last American 1T?
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#147 at 06-16-2007 01:28 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-16-2007, 01:28 PM #147
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
I do think Colombia and Venezuela are both 3T. Venezuela didn't have La Violencia, but surely there were many Colombian refugees fleeing to Venezuela, and the latter country did have quite a bit of political unrest from the late 1940s through the late 1950s. And of course, the 2T is quite obvious.

In Paraguay, I had seen evidence of a lot of trauma during the 1970s, but it was not a solid case. The Chaco War would have been right on time (62 years after the last 4T) for a new 4T. And the 1947 rebellion might not be 1T, it might be the climax of a 4T.
No. 1935-1947 does not support this assertion.







Post#148 at 06-16-2007 10:50 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-16-2007, 10:50 PM #148
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

I've concluded that Panama is 3T and is on the same timeline as Colombia.







Post#149 at 06-16-2007 11:26 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-16-2007, 11:26 PM #149
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Exclamation Ecuador

I've been researching Ecuador. I am under the assumption that the Wars of Independence were Crisis Wars. The country studies page (see below) seems to support a standard history with clearly visible 1T, 2T, 3T and then I hit a wall. Without knowing the history of Ecuador (I did look at this same passage before in March, actually posted it, but I forgot about it until I reread it), I was more or less expecting a Civil War around the time the Liberals took power from the Conservatives.

Country Studies Page:
http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/...d(DOCID+ec0020)

Eloy Alfaro is the outstanding standard-bearer for Ecuador's Liberals, much as García Moreno is for the Conservatives. Some Marxist groups have also looked to Alfaro; although his political program was in no way socialist, it did prove to be revolutionary in the extent to which it stripped the Roman Catholic Church of the power and privileges previously granted to it by García Moreno. Catholic officials and their Conservative allies did not give up without a fight, however. During the first year of Alfaro's presidency, Ecuador was ravaged by a bloody civil war in which clergymen commonly incited the faithful masses to rise in rebellion against the "atheistic alfaristas" and were, just as commonly, themselves victims of alfarista repression. The foreign-born Bishops Pedro Schumacher of Portoviejo and Arsenio Andrade of Riobamba led the early resistance to Alfaro. A fullfledged bloodbath may well have been averted only through the magnanimous efforts of the outstanding historian and Archbishop Federico González Suárez, who urged the clergy to abandon the pursuit of politics.
Now this can be an 'Aborted Crisis War,' but I would find it hard to believe that a Crisis War can be stopped some time after it stops. Anyways, the next paragraph indicates a 1T:

This final ecclesiastical struggle for control of Ecuador was in vain, however. By the end of the Liberals' rule in 1925, Roman Catholicism was no longer the constitutionally mandated state religion, official clerical censorship of reading material had been suppressed, many powerful foreign clergy had been expelled, education had been secularized, civil marriage as well as divorce had been instituted, the concordat with the Vatican had been broken, most of the church's rural properties had been seized by the state, and the republic was no longer dedicated to the Sacred Heart of Jesus. The Roman Catholic Church in Ecuador would never again hold prerogatives as extensive as those it enjoyed during the late nineteenth century.
Doesn't that sound like a Liberal Fascistic "lessons learned from Crisis War" 1T? Does this analysis make sense to anyone else? I'm just having trouble believing a mid-war abortion.

An awakening climax can be shown with the overthrow of the President in 1944. Discontent with the system grew following the end of the awakening, which finally exploded into a huge mess in the 1960s
http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/...d(DOCID+ec0024)

I can't keep track of the mess that's going on in that sections. It doesn't seem to be a crisis war, but I can almost feel that roller coaster ride. So this would mean Ecuador is 2T. Anyone care to re-analyze?







Post#150 at 06-16-2007 11:36 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
06-16-2007, 11:36 PM #150
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Peru

Peru follows a very similar timeline. I think the War of the Pacific (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_the_Pacific) (1879-1884) was the next Crisis War, climaxing in the battle of Arica.

From there is a military coup (1968-1980) and rule that seems similar to the one in Ecuador. So 2T.
-----------------------------------------