Ditto Chile
*Edit* Map updated
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Chile
Ditto Chile
*Edit* Map updated
Well, then consider the 1947 rebellion a sort of 2T "harbinger" in which Artists try to humanize a 1T, like the Civil Rights Movement in the 1950s.Originally Posted by MichaelEaston
Explain. Was it the increased military pressure during the 1950s? Do you have a 4T climaxing in 1968?
Bolivia seemed *somewhat* 2T, but had no clear crisis war in the 1975 timeline. If the Chaco War was 4T in Paraguay, there is of course a good chance it was 4T in Bolivia too.
Brazil and Uruguay are not 2T slam dunks either, though Xenakis was reasonably confident about Brazil.
BTW, I am 70-80% sure about Argentina being 2T. The lead-in to military rule was filled with unrest, and with the military takeover in 1976 came an underground genocide called the Dirty War. I have read from numerous sources that Argentinians today look back at the 1970s and early 1980s as a very dark period in their history, one to be greatly relieved is over (possibly like the way Germans still look back at the 1930s and '40s with shame).
Then was Evita's reign actually a 2T?
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."
"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.
It's not that simple. I'm treating it the same way as I am treating Venezuela. That is, they both are on Colombia's timeline, which stems back to Independence and Gran Colombia.
My understanding of the Chaco War actively counters this. I wasn't sure if it was a Crisis War, so I figured it could be a Crisis War for one and not the other. Bolivia probably shares a similar timeline with Peru, with crises being the War of the Pacific and then the Bolivian National Revolution. http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/...d(DOCID+bo0028)
I will take a look at these.Brazil and Uruguay are not 2T slam dunks either, though Xenakis was reasonably confident about Brazil.
BTW, I am 70-80% sure about Argentina being 2T. The lead-in to military rule was filled with unrest, and with the military takeover in 1976 came an underground genocide called the Dirty War. I have read from numerous sources that Argentinians today look back at the 1970s and early 1980s as a very dark period in their history, one to be greatly relieved is over (possibly like the way Germans still look back at the 1930s and '40s with shame).
The Bolivian National Revolution, according to Wiki, was a monumentally important event on par with the revolutions in Mexico and Russia 30 years before. This would mean that the Chaco War was 3T for Bolivia. Thus Bolivia was 4T circa 1955 and is entering a 3T now. The Cochabamba protests of 2000 can be seen as a 2T climax like Tlatelolco or Tiananmen. So Bolivia should be orange.
And yes, check out Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. I am most confident about Argentina being 2T, least confident about Uruguay.
So it would seem.
Cross-Posting in Objections to Generational Dynamics
Good information! Please tell him to register and contribute! He seems very thorough and I'd be extremely interested in any help he can give!
I'm afraid that this is a problem throughout all of Africa. By the time these nation-states were created, Africa still had a long way to go before there was a great amount of generational coherency among regions. Look at my map and you can see the difference between Africa and continents like Asia and Europe. So I'm sure that there are some countries that are on multiple timelines. Aside from Chad/Sudan, Somalia has been floated around as well as most of West Africa. It's an extremely complicated situation that requires expert attention. Of course, any help by a certain lurker would be appreciated.Thanks John for the repeated explanations and the links!
I meant to ask you for exactly this direction to a relevant African
generation thread.
Also, it appears that Easton and 1990 and Taylor Selseth largely
concur with my SubSaharan Africa classifications (I haven't yet
compared on other fronts), excepting that
1) they consider Sudan as one country, when it is actually at least 2
if not three countries, with slight offsets, eg South Sudan's war is
already over, Darfur's is reaching a crescendo, and Khartoum hasn't
fully broken out yet. The South Sudan's situation being settled is
already percolating out to Northern Uganda, where the Acholiland
(Lord's Resistance Army) has been routed by the combined actions of S.
Sudan and Ugandan gov'ts.
It's quite obvious that the Mfecane was a Crisis War. The Boer war required a bit more depth, but it certainly is one. I can't be too sure about the 1995 assertion. Something that I got from the 1960 era was that emotional roller coaster ride. So I was agnostic/leaning 4T. I don't get anything like that in the 1990s.2) they are agnostic on Southern Africa, whereas I am definitely not
and see it definitely as being in the end of the Recovery era, poised
to enter Awakening before 2015. The formation of the Union of South
Africa in 1910 was clearly and unambiguously the establishment of the
1T. The culmination of both the Boer War and the Zulu War.
The struggle against Apartheid was definitely an existential struggle
which impacted negatively both the Afrikaner White farmers and the
Black tribalists (eg. Inkatha/Buthelezi allied with the Afrikaners).
And the timing of the saeculum tracks back quite elegantly to the
Mfecane, an Nguni term or Difaqane, a Sesotho term), which means "the
crushing," wherein the militarization of the Nguni age-sets had a
civil war between the Ndwandwe and the Mthethwa. The leader of the
Mthethwa was Dinigswayo and his main lieutenant was Shaka Zulu. Shaka
Zulu's forces decisively defeated the Ndwandwe. A dissident offshoot
of his forces, led by Mzilikazi, ended up founding the Ndebele kingdom
in 1840 what is now known as Matabeleland, Zimbabwe.
And in fact, the reverberations of the ~1820 Mfecane were felt, with
some delay, in the establishment of Swaziland and Lesotho, the Gaza
kingdom in Mozambique and impacted Tanzania too.
The South African Saeculum
1820 - Mfecane - Shaka Zulu's Kingdom (blacks united)
1910 - Union of South Africa (whites united)
1995 - Non-racial South Africa (everyone united)
This I can't agree with. We've concluded that Somalia climaxed in the mid 1990s, and Ethiopia in 1991. What's his reasoning?3) Ethiopia is 10-15 years ahead of Somalia
I have nearly 20 as of now. The Mau Mau uprising for Kenya (1952-1960) and the Ugandan-Tanzanian Conflicts and the overthrow of Amin (end 1979).4) Kenya is definitely ahead of Uganda and Tanzania by about 10
years.
It's possible, but unlikely. The Ndebele arrived in the mid 1830s and I believe there was a Crisis War in the 1890s, which they both shared. The Ndebele should have been a 1T upon arrival so I suspect the timelines merged over the next 60 years. Then there was the Rhodesian Bush War.5) I'm agnostic on Zimbabwe since the two major peoples: Shona and
Ndebele could be on different timelines.
We'll need something like this. I consider my map to be Present+. China may be 3T, but it conveys the wrong message unless you have it in red.It's generally believed by Angolans and Mozambiquans that their crises
were long overdue when they occurred, possibly because of
decolonization happening later there than elsewhere in the continent.
Portuguese were the first in and the last out of Africa (and the most
destructive of all other economic systems that existed previously).
It's a little bit hard to compare the maps, since they represent
snapshots at different years, the borders of countries don't really
represent the language groups/modes of production underneath them, and
classifying a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 turning doesn't allow you to see whether a
turning is just being arrived at or just departing.
There needs to be color gradient generational timeline maps, and they
should be overlaid on real ethnolinguistic/mode of production defined
peoples independent of or in hybrid with country-political borders.
YES!The idiotic comments from a few that Africa has no saeculum were a
hoot. Anybody who knows anything about Africa knows that coming of
age-groups are a fundamental mechanism for society's organization
from the village on up through most of the SubSaharan environment.
These age-set loyalties are frateral bonds that last a lifetime and
are central to many forms of social and economic organization. It is
the militarization of the age-sets that signifies crisis.
Thank you!In any event, it was nice to see my off the cuff generational
classifications largely confirmed by energetic folks who are focused
on this type of analysis.
*cringe* I'm not sure of exactly what you mean.I think the question of timeline Reset is crucial for understanding
many places.
Africa in particular experienced resets as colonialism invaded deeper
from the coasts, putting strains on available land and/or introducing
new crops and technologies which opened or closed off opportunities
and thus synchronized 1T's.
Thanks for all your input, anonymous.The scramble for Africa's oil is having another such impact possibly
accelerating or delaying crises in many places, especially the Gulf of
Guinea in Western Africa, but also in Chad and Sudan.
Great book on this called - "Untapped"
http://www.amazon.com/Untapped-Scramble-Africas-John-Ghazvinian/dp/0151011389
Sudan is indeed split. South Sudan is 1T already, while Darfur is 4T, having hit Regeneracy around 2004.
Southern Africa I do not think is about to enter 2T. The 3T explanation is actually the most sensible I can see, with the Regeneracy happening around the time of apartheid starting in 1948, and with a climax possibly around 1960 with the Sharpeville Massacre. The end of apartheid in the 1990s was the focus of a 2T, not a 4T.
Ethiopia is not 10-15 years ahead. Like Easton says, just a few years' difference. Ethiopia's last 4T could be very cut-and-dry, 1974-1991, corresponding to its civil war. The best dates I've seen for Somalia are 1976-1993, with the climax/resolution being Black Hawk Down.
As for the different ethnic groups, yes, Africa is strange in this regard. It was very tribal until colonization, which didn't kick in until the turn of the 20th century. So that's not a long time for turnings to be conformed to on a nationwide basis. Still, there are some African countries with clearly-identifiable turnings, and others (especially in the West) which are not so obvious.
It would be nice to be able to split up countries by different tribes or regions, but how?
Think Regional
Instead of looking at one country or even regions of one country, look at the region as a whole, see how events in one nation affect neighboring countries and you will get a clearer picture of the saeculum.
For instance I looked at the whole of the Middle East and saw how events like Iranian Revolution affected other Middle Eastern and North African nations. Hold and behold it triggered an massive awakening. Looking back I can see the 1940's and 1950's being a 4T for the whole region and 1960's and 1970's being a High.
"The f****** place should be wiped off the face of the earth".
David Bowie on Los Angeles
Dear Tristan,
This kind of procedure usually doesn't work. Just to take an obvious
example, The Mexican Revolution was in the 1910s, while its neighbor,
the US, had World War II as a crisis war. Each country has to be
examined individually, and sometimes different identity groups within
a single country have to be analyzed separately. You can't assume
without proving it that adjacent regions have the same timeline.
Methodology is very important. There are no easy shortcuts here.
Sincerely,
John
John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Exactly. Using a methodology like Tristan's, one would see WWII as a massive 4T and assume that, well, Mexico and Cuba had to be 4T in the 1930s and '40s because Canada and the United States very obviously were. But Mexico was in a very prosperous 1T - El Milagro Mexicano I like to call it (borrowing a term used to describe the booming Mexican economy of that 1T and the following 2T) - under Lazaro Cardenas and the other early PRI presidents while much of the world was decimated by the Great Depression and WWII. And Cuba, of course, was quietly and slowly unraveling, ominously leading into its Revolution of '59.
Religious revivals are often stated to be a clear 2T marker. It's not so simple. How does the 2T manifest itself? Through a generational split? Violence? Unity? Division? Waving the magic hand isn't sufficient for a thorough analysis. In Iran, it was an emotional roller coaster ride, beginning with Revolution before turning into violent, genocidal Crisis War with human wave attacks. I'm laughing right now just thinking about the USA pulling that shit off in the 1960s! Ha!
Africa potpourri
Hi Michael,
Glad I could be of some help here.
Africa is very huge, complex, ancient and dynamic; so I enjoy trying to make sense out of the puzzle pieces.
I primarily approach things from ethnolinguistic/economic mode of production/class struggle perspectives.
Generational dynamics provides another important demographic/materialist basis for understanding human social development, especially in terms of timing of Turnings.
So many things to respond to, i don't know where to start:
South Africa:
Apartheid Laws of 1948 weren't a qualitatively new thing; it was a continuation of the fundamental definition of the Union of South Africa, which politically excluded Blacks while treating Whites more or less equally.
Remember that the ANC was founded 1912 (renamed 1919), in direct response to the USA excluding Blacks but originally agitating for basic rights, not even voting rights.
Apartheid Laws were the culmination of an Awakening. Not every Awakening is pretty for everybody. The oppressed were awoken as they had increased economic opportunities to work in the mines and as domestic help in the cities, previously off limits. The dominant group in society "awoke" to the fact that Black labor in the mines was essential to their prosperity and that the slums that had arisen on the outskirts of town weren't going away.
Sharpeville Massacre 1960: Unravelling
Soweto Uprising 1976: begining of the Crisis
First Non-racial Election: 1995, ie a new High
The Truth and Reconciliation Committees were incredibly wrenching processes that accompanied an overall sense of Recovery and Austerity.
Large numbers were not killed in this Crisis, but it was a profoundly soul-reshaping experience for all. A real Gateway through which none can ever go back to a world which no longer exists.
Somalia: my reasoning is that the period that folks are calling a Crisis were actually an Unravelling.
The Crisis begins with the collapse of all central government in the early 90's, as chunk by chunk of Somalia seceded (somaliland 1991, Puntland 1998, Jubaland 1998, SW Somalia 2002), and we're now approaching the end of the Crisis with the Islamic Courts Union and the Transitional National Government vying for creation and control over a newly centralized state.
Kenya:
I originally meant to write at least 10 years ahead. I could go along with a 20 year offset. With Uganda's crisis starting NOT with Amin, but with Obote attacking the Bagandan Kingdom, and similarly not ending with the removal of Amin, but with the taking of power by Musaveni's folks with the backing of Tanzania and the Rwandan Tutsi.
Incidentally, the Tutsi/Tanzania connection and the Ugandans (and the Americans behind all of them) are the main force behind the new government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is mainly representative of peoples in the East and not the West (the election results were highly regionally skewed) and the new government is taking a hard line on Western DRC opposition.
The East African Community today just announced that Rwanda and Burundi will be joining Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Will be electing a president by 2013. Also there has been talk of DRC joining the EAC, and i would not be surprised to see South Sudan having some sort of affiliate status. The South Sudanese rebels were sheltered in Uganda during the war, and there are warm ties (and mutually beneficial trade possibilities of oil for water).
A subject that interests me alot regarding Africa is the globally unprecedented pace of urbanization.
Mike Davis in Planet of Slums points out that Africa's pace outstrips that of 19th Century Europe by 50-fold. In other words, Lagos growth since WW2 has been 10'sX more rapid than London from 1800-1900.
The Reset Cringe:
Since generational resets to 1T's can occur through invasions and large-scale population transfers, I think it is appropriate to examine the role of urbanization (depeasantization/detribalization) and corresponding social, economic and miscegenation of peoples in generating a consolidated timeline.
http://newleftreview.org/A2496
The immigrations/emigrations and virtual annihilations of mode-of-production-defined peoples within Africa are significant. To fully appreciate this, one should note that many peoples were defined solely by the products that they traded. Eg. A group might be referred to as the 'coffee-bean husk' people.
Changes in ecology, trade flows, new crops and technologies radically restructure relationships between peoples.
The varied geography/ecology of Africa has played a huge role in defining the boundaries and economic roles that peoples play in relation to one another. The North-South trading relationships at the interface between desert, sahel, forest, and savanah were central for millenia. Vast specializations in crops and merchandize and corresponding needs arose from that. And the labor intensiveness of salt and gold mining relative to the disease-kept small population size led to the development of slavery millenia ago to answer severe labor shortages and thus generated enduring relationships and expectations between peoples.
One can often discern patterns of peoples laterally across the continent playing similar roles at the ecological interfaces which exist horizontally.
eg. Livestock herders in the Sahel trading slaves with those who could provide grains from southern plains and salt from northern desert salt mines.
eg. Gold mining of West Africa requiring slaves from the interior and manufactured goods from Arabia and Europe.
The Swahili coast had another long standing flow related to the trade winds and interactions with Indians and Arabs.
I bring all this up because it is common among both imperialists and anti-imperialists to ignore that Africa has had its own dynamics going on long before the Europeans arrived. The waves of Atlantic slavery, colonialism, decolonization, industrialization, information economy were/are falling upon pre-existing dynamics, in some cases merely overlaying on top of them, in other cases, radically transforming or eliminating them, thus throwing whole groups of people into permanent disarray and assimilation into other social formations.
Africa has at least 400 major ethnolinguistic peoples and probably a total of another few thousand of minor peoples.
The advent of qualitative changes in transportation and communication have instantly transformed/amalgamated/annihilated peoples.
A village which once was essentially another country visited occasionally at most, now becomes a stop along a highway just an hour drive away.
Alternatively, the people of that village might have lost their independent existence and now live in a shantytown somewhere cheek to jowl with peoples that they had never even heard of.
Through this rapid, monumental urban migration, it is as if they have all become minority immigrants to a new country.
glad to join the discussion!
I have updated my map after a through re-study of Africa.
The West African Sahel countries that used to part of French West Africa (Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and possibly Burkina Faso) seem to have had 4Ts starting in the early 70s and going into the early 90s. I'm having a hell of a time trying to figure out Senegal and Gambia, though. Gambia was quite stable until a 1994 coup, 4T?
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
Africa
So much to respond to, I don’t know where to start. Hey! Looks like you’ve been on here longer than me!
Well, alright, just try and stay close to TFT guidelines.I primarily approach things from ethnolinguistic/economic mode of production/class struggle perspectives.
Generational dynamics provides another important demographic/materialist basis for understanding human social development, especially in terms of timing of Turnings.
Politically and legislatively, they were certainly not a new thing. However, in terms of mood and attitude, the change was enormous. It was a quickening of a brewing catastrophe that brought about major changes.So many things to respond to, i don't know where to start:
South Africa:
Apartheid Laws of 1948 weren't a qualitatively new thing; it was a continuation of the fundamental definition of the Union of South Africa, which politically excluded Blacks while treating Whites more or less equally.
Remember that the ANC was founded 1912 (renamed 1919), in direct response to the USA excluding Blacks but originally agitating for basic rights, not even voting rights.
The 1948 laws? Isn’t that a bit late for an Awakening considering the Second Boer War ended in 1902? For an end date +46 years isn’t so bad, but you make it seem like Apartheid Laws (or around the time they were put in place) awoke the population, which would happen somewhere between the beginning and the middle of an Awakening.Apartheid Laws were the culmination of an Awakening. Not every Awakening is pretty for everybody. The oppressed were awoken as they had increased economic opportunities to work in the mines and as domestic help in the cities, previously off limits. The dominant group in society "awoke" to the fact that Black labor in the mines was essential to their prosperity and that the slums that had arisen on the outskirts of town weren't going away.
So, no, not every awakening is pretty, but there must be some sort of generational split. Where do you see this? Does the new generation, storming into power with full force, want Apartheid Laws, much to the dismay of their elders? Or does the old guard attempt to extend their power, much to the dismay of their children?
Why?Sharpeville Massacre 1960: Unravelling
Everything I don’t see in ~1960 I do see here. It’s a wonder they didn’t break out into Civil War back then. Here, I see crumbling due to resistance and a general outgrowth of Apartheid laws. The emotional roller coaster ride that I could sense ~1960 is nowhere to be found.Soweto Uprising 1976: begining of the Crisis
First Non-racial Election: 1995, ie a new High
The Truth and Reconciliation Committees were incredibly wrenching processes that accompanied an overall sense of Recovery and Austerity.
Large numbers were not killed in this Crisis, but it was a profoundly soul-reshaping experience for all. A real Gateway through which none can ever go back to a world which no longer exists.
It’s possible. I’ve changed my mind on Somalia a couple of times, but I’d like to point out a couple of things.Somalia: my reasoning is that the period that folks are calling a Crisis were actually an Unravelling.
The Crisis begins with the collapse of all central government in the early 90's, as chunk by chunk of Somalia seceded (somaliland 1991, Puntland 1998, Jubaland 1998, SW Somalia 2002), and we're now approaching the end of the Crisis with the Islamic Courts Union and the Transitional National Government vying for creation and control over a newly centralized state.
I’ve postulated that Somalia is on two or more timelines, with Somaliland being separate from the rest of the nation (which includes the Ogaden region of Ethiopia). In brief, there was virtually no interest in fighting in Southern Somalia when Italy invaded in the late 1800s. The Italians were looking for land that they could get without a fight. By 1900, Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II seized the Ogaden region. Around the same time Mohammed Abdullah Hassan (The Mad Mullah) led a furious resistance against foreign powers Ethiopia and Britain, which ended in his defeat in 1920. I believe this resistance was focused in or around Somaliland.
However, resistance to the Italian campaigns was located to the East and South from 1923-1935. Before I make conclusions from this, I would like to ask if I have the correct information. That is, Crisis Wars were 1900-1920 for Somaliland, and 1923-1935 for the rest of the nation.
This analysis makes a lot of sense. I was never comfortable with my conclusions with regard to Uganda, but this clears a lot of it up. I’ll have to look into it more, but this is a good analysis.Kenya:
I originally meant to write at least 10 years ahead. I could go along with a 20 year offset. With Uganda's crisis starting NOT with Amin, but with Obote attacking the Bagandan Kingdom, and similarly not ending with the removal of Amin, but with the taking of power by Musaveni's folks with the backing of Tanzania and the Rwandan Tutsi.
Incidentally, the Tutsi/Tanzania connection and the Ugandans (and the Americans behind all of them) are the main force behind the new government of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is mainly representative of peoples in the East and not the West (the election results were highly regionally skewed) and the new government is taking a hard line on Western DRC opposition.
The East African Community today just announced that Rwanda and Burundi will be joining Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Will be electing a president by 2013. Also there has been talk of DRC joining the EAC, and i would not be surprised to see South Sudan having some sort of affiliate status. The South Sudanese rebels were sheltered in Uganda during the war, and there are warm ties (and mutually beneficial trade possibilities of oil for water).
Interesting. What effect do you suppose this will have?A subject that interests me alot regarding Africa is the globally unprecedented pace of urbanization.
Mike Davis in Planet of Slums points out that Africa's pace outstrips that of 19th Century Europe by 50-fold. In other words, Lagos growth since WW2 has been 10'sX more rapid than London from 1800-1900.
I can’t access that full article. Or can I? Generational resets can only happen in MASS migrations. They would have to be radical changes, not gradual urbanization or slow changes in socioeconomic rhythms. If you can show an extremely rapid change that could fundamentally alter African life, then I could consider a 1T reset.The Reset Cringe:
Since generational resets to 1T's can occur through invasions and large-scale population transfers, I think it is appropriate to examine the role of urbanization (depeasantization/detribalization) and corresponding social, economic and miscegenation of peoples in generating a consolidated timeline.
http://newleftreview.org/A2496
The immigrations/emigrations and virtual annihilations of mode-of-production-defined peoples within Africa are significant. To fully appreciate this, one should note that many peoples were defined solely by the products that they traded. Eg. A group might be referred to as the 'coffee-bean husk' people.
Changes in ecology, trade flows, new crops and technologies radically restructure relationships between peoples.
I’m sure there is more to the coffee-bean husk people than meets the eye. They have their own generations and are part of larger identity groups.
This is why it is so difficult. We really need an expert.The varied geography/ecology of Africa has played a huge role in defining the boundaries and economic roles that peoples play in relation to one another. The North-South trading relationships at the interface between desert, sahel, forest, and savanah were central for millenia. Vast specializations in crops and merchandize and corresponding needs arose from that. And the labor intensiveness of salt and gold mining relative to the disease-kept small population size led to the development of slavery millenia ago to answer severe labor shortages and thus generated enduring relationships and expectations between peoples.
One can often discern patterns of peoples laterally across the continent playing similar roles at the ecological interfaces which exist horizontally.
eg. Livestock herders in the Sahel trading slaves with those who could provide grains from southern plains and salt from northern desert salt mines.
eg. Gold mining of West Africa requiring slaves from the interior and manufactured goods from Arabia and Europe.
The Swahili coast had another long standing flow related to the trade winds and interactions with Indians and Arabs.
I bring all this up because it is common among both imperialists and anti-imperialists to ignore that Africa has had its own dynamics going on long before the Europeans arrived. The waves of Atlantic slavery, colonialism, decolonization, industrialization, information economy were/are falling upon pre-existing dynamics, in some cases merely overlaying on top of them, in other cases, radically transforming or eliminating them, thus throwing whole groups of people into permanent disarray and assimilation into other social formations.
Africa has at least 400 major ethnolinguistic peoples and probably a total of another few thousand of minor peoples.
All very interesting. Please continue to offer feedback!The advent of qualitative changes in transportation and communication have instantly transformed/amalgamated/annihilated peoples.
A village which once was essentially another country visited occasionally at most, now becomes a stop along a highway just an hour drive away.
Alternatively, the people of that village might have lost their independent existence and now live in a shantytown somewhere cheek to jowl with peoples that they had never even heard of.
Through this rapid, monumental urban migration, it is as if they have all become minority immigrants to a new country.
glad to join the discussion!
Matt
The Sahel countries had 4Ts manifested in...
I, too, have done a thorough study of the Sahel but found nothing that resembles a 4T.
Generational suggestive evidence for why the 1948 Apartheid Laws were the backlash against an Awakening:
Since we are in agreement that the previous Crisis ended somewhere between 1905 and 1910, with the establishment of the Union of South Africa (ie, unification of the 'white races').
Let's look at the principal protoganists that emerged in the interim: the ANC, especially the ANC Youth League.
ANC Youth League founded in 1944 by Mandela (1918), Tambo (1917), Sisulu (1912)
It should also be noted that the element amongst the Arikaners in the National Party that accepted the end of apartheid were led by Pieter Botha (b.1916), also a Prophet.
All of the USA Prime Ministers through 1948 had been Hero or Artist generation (military officers) in the prior Crisis war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...f_South_Africa
All of the ANC old guard leadership were also Hero or Artist generation
John Dube (1871), Pixley ka Isaka Seme (1881), Solomon Tshekisho Plaatje (1876)
All of the main insurgent players are Prophet generation.
They are insurgent against an older Hero/Artist generation.
Somehow the fact of the Apartheid Laws overshadows the fact of the coordinated civil disobedience movement which had been going for awhile preceding it.......remember someone named Gandhi got his start at this time in South Africa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African...s_Youth_League
Let us not forget that it was young Black mine workers who had moved to the cities to work. Mining is always a younger man's job, unless you are a foreman. And of course, who were the foremen in the mines? The Whites.
What was the struggle that went on within the South African Communist Party? It was simultaneously a race struggle and a generational struggle.
The old SACP had a losing slogan of "Workers of the World Unite for a White South Africa" which they fielded during the 1922 bloody Rand Rebellion.
They reoriented in defeat to Africanizing the party, and by 1928 were overwhelmingly Black and young.
There was a new generation of whites who joined the SACP too. Notably Joe Slovo (b. 1926), who came to be the head of it by the late 40's and who later was the head of the ANC's armed wing, Umkhonto we Siswe.
Sharpeville marked the end of the purely civil disobedience tactics which had been going on since the 20's and 30's and, of course, led directly to forming of Umkhonto we Siswe as a tactical extension of the ANC.
There was no generational conflict regarding Sharpeville. It was triggered by extending pass laws to include women. The debate within the movement was over passive resistance versus armed struggle. And since the old guard within the movements were already gone, it was strictly a debate within the revolutionary generations.
The most one could note is that both Joe Slovo (SACP/ANC/Umkhonto we Siswe) and Robert Sobukwe (Pan African Congress) were both born in 1926, whilst Mandela, et. al. were 8-10 years older.
Re, Planet of Slums, unimpeded link:
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarti...m?ItemID=10234
Re, Somalia:
I'll have to do some more research before I respond. In general, though it is often a safe bet that different parts of these countries can be on different timelines. With Somalia, though, at least they share common languages: Somali and Arabic.
Yet another question that is highlighted with Africa in particular (I think because of minimal infrastructure and low population density throughout much of history) is the process of national timeline synchronization from disparate ones.
Africa is big
I end the Crisis in 1902 with the end of the Boer War.
I think the South African Crisis came kinda early.Let's look at the principal protoganists that emerged in the interim: the ANC, especially the ANC Youth League.
ANC Youth League founded in 1944 by Mandela (1918), Tambo (1917), Sisulu (1912)
It should also be noted that the element amongst the Arikaners in the National Party that accepted the end of apartheid were led by Pieter Botha (b.1916), also a Prophet.
All of the USA Prime Ministers through 1948 had been Hero or Artist generation (military officers) in the prior Crisis war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...f_South_Africa
All of the ANC old guard leadership were also Hero or Artist generation
John Dube (1871), Pixley ka Isaka Seme (1881), Solomon Tshekisho Plaatje (1876)
All of the main insurgent players are Prophet generation.
They are insurgent against an older Hero/Artist generation.
Okay but this is during an awakening. If there is a generational struggle in this, one would expect it during an awakening (and some parts of the unraveling too).Somehow the fact of the Apartheid Laws overshadows the fact of the coordinated civil disobedience movement which had been going for awhile preceding it.......remember someone named Gandhi got his start at this time in South Africa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African...s_Youth_League
Let us not forget that it was young Black mine workers who had moved to the cities to work. Mining is always a younger man's job, unless you are a foreman. And of course, who were the foremen in the mines? The Whites.
What was the struggle that went on within the South African Communist Party? It was simultaneously a race struggle and a generational struggle.
The old SACP had a losing slogan of "Workers of the World Unite for a White South Africa" which they fielded during the 1922 bloody Rand Rebellion.
They reoriented in defeat to Africanizing the party, and by 1928 were overwhelmingly Black and young.
Joe Slovo would be a Nomad, not a Prophet.There was a new generation of whites who joined the SACP too. Notably Joe Slovo (b. 1926), who came to be the head of it by the late 40's and who later was the head of the ANC's armed wing, Umkhonto we Siswe.
I really don't like the ~1960 Crisis. I don't. It's really unlike anything I've encountered. As hard is it for me to see a Crisis there, my frustration is exacerbated when I take a look at ~1990. It reeks of an awakening.Sharpeville marked the end of the purely civil disobedience tactics which had been going on since the 20's and 30's and, of course, led directly to forming of Umkhonto we Siswe as a tactical extension of the ANC.
There was no generational conflict regarding Sharpeville. It was triggered by extending pass laws to include women. The debate within the movement was over passive resistance versus armed struggle. And since the old guard within the movements were already gone, it was strictly a debate within the revolutionary generations.
The most one could note is that both Joe Slovo (SACP/ANC/Umkhonto we Siswe) and Robert Sobukwe (Pan African Congress) were both born in 1926, whilst Mandela, et. al. were 8-10 years older.
I would expect that localized ethnic timelines, over the years, would eventually become synchronized with the majority in their nation, even in Africa. Definition took place recently (compared to other regions), so timelines are very raw. I see differences in culture, such as language, and ethnicity, not acting so much as a hindrance to inevitable timeline synchronization; but rather, they act as a tool for defining identity groups, and therefore, 'fault lines.' Part of the reason the World is so up in arms about the situation in Africa (besides politics) is that they seem to constantly have wars (check the map), but perhaps just as important, they constantly have Civil Wars, which usually turn out to be worse for obvious reasons.Re, Planet of Slums, unimpeded link:
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarti...m?ItemID=10234
Re, Somalia:
I'll have to do some more research before I respond. In general, though it is often a safe bet that different parts of these countries can be on different timelines. With Somalia, though, at least they share common languages: Somali and Arabic.
Yet another question that is highlighted with Africa in particular (I think because of minimal infrastructure and low population density throughout much of history) is the process of national timeline synchronization from disparate ones.
The last point you bring up is particularly interesting, and there are many ways to interpret this problem. I see the low population density and minimal infrastructure as not allowing for a clearly defined timeline in certain areas, should one analyze their history. We can always revert back to the Kansas/Iceland/Switzerland/etc. reason for solving this potential problem. I do, however, see a timeline in virtually all African nations, so with regard to the larger picture, it does not worry me.
Matt
Further thoughts on South Africa:
In a way, it is a great example of this multi-peoples, timeline intermingling we have touched on.
For the Blacks, their prior Crises could be noted as
1820 Shaka Zulu's Mfecane
1879 Anglo-Zulu War
For the Whites
1902 Boer War
One could assert that 1948 ends up being a Crisis for Blacks, but not for the Whites.
Then Sharpeville ends up as an accelerated Awakening for Blacks, and then Soweto to 1992 as an Unravelling?, and now as a Crisis?
That doesn't fit to me.
I definitely agree that this is not your garden variety well-defined national saeculum; probably because the scope of the nation was in the process of being expanded.
Again, I feel like the GD theory, at present, is missing the mechanisms for this process of timeline synchronization. Or maybe I'm just too dense to get it.
I think if we can figure this one out, then we could address many of the other vexing situations around the world.
Freedom in capitalist society always remains about the same as it was in ancient Greek republics: Freedom for slave owners.
I only know a little about the Zulu Kingdom but I could see this working. I think John X. knows a thing or two about the history so hopefully he'll lend a hand here.
Then Sharpeville ends up as an accelerated Awakening for Blacks, and then Soweto to 1992 as an Unravelling?, and now as a Crisis?
That doesn't fit to me.
I definitely agree that this is not your garden variety well-defined national saeculum; probably because the scope of the nation was in the process of being expanded.Can you elaborate?Again, I feel like the GD theory, at present, is missing the mechanisms for this process of timeline synchronization. Or maybe I'm just too dense to get it.
I am ... uh... intimidated by the dynamics involved in colonization and rule over native peoples in relation to timeline synchronization. I've avoided India for some time now, but my confidence has risen. We'll see how this reanalysis of Africa pans out.I think if we can figure this one out, then we could address many of the other vexing situations around the world.
African Language Map
Here's a link that had I known about this mapping project, I would have sent ages ago:
http://www.gmi.org/wlms/users/huffma...s32-100dpi.pdf
It's a very detailed language map of Africa. You can zoom in pretty deep.
Although, language is not the only fault-line in a society, it can be pretty important, and seeing how language faultlines do or do not correspond with political borders can be very helpful in understanding what the civil wars are about.
For example one can get some understanding of the history of Uganda by taking into account the fact that the northern Uganda tribes are on the S. Sudan generational crisis timeline and assume that it's based on their linguistic connection.
I also can connect several other dots
- the roles of the different tribes in Uganda during British colonialism and how that played afterwards in terms of the Obote/Amin/Obote/Akello ugliness.
Notably: the Northerners (Acholi, Langi) were the military corps under the Brits whereas the southerners (Ganda, Nyoro, Nyokore) were the colonial administrators.
Obote/Amin/Obote/Akello were all northerners with military expertise who assumed and vied for power after the Brits left; and in the case of Obote, he tried to destroy the Bugandan kingdom (with the initial alliance of the Western-educated anti-tribal, intelligentsia), while Amin, desperately tried to keep the country united (through the military subordination of Bantu-language speaking civil administration) first against the Ismaili Indians, and then through the war against Tanzania.
- the civil war in northern Uganda started at about the same time as that of S. Sudan, which also was approximately after the Bugandans, with help from other Bantu language people (Western Uganda, Rwandese, Tanzanians) took control over Uganda to the disadvantage of the Nilo-Saharan language people.
This Nilo-Saharan/Bantu Language fault line looks like where the real national borders could be if S. Sudan breaks off formally from Sudan and Uganda cedes Acholiland, etal.
While the level of social and economic development of the Bantu peoples is much more sophisticated, the combination of S. Sudan’s oil and livestock properties with N. Ugandan and NE DR Congo’s water access and fertile land would be accelerative of the development of the Nilo-Saharan people.
- the extent of the Nilo-Saharan languages looks to somewhat correlate with where the tsetse flies/African Sleeping Sickness are absent; the tsetse fly probably determined the range which the Nilo-Saharan people's livestock raising mode of production could spread in earlier times.
The connection between Nilo-Saharan livestock mode of production and military expertise is the following:
To protect one's herds from rustlers and to take over grazing lands with access to water, one developes martial skills. Those with the best martial skills ends up being able have the largest herds and access to the best lands.
Thus when the Brits arrived in Uganda, they employed the northern livestock herding tribes as their military force since they were much better warriors than the southerners.
I expect however, that there may have been additional generational timeline bases for why the northerners were more willing to fight on behalf of the Brits, when they arrived.
I wonder how often a similar set of dynamics played out throughout the continent (and world) during the process of decolonization of multiethnic states.
When I sent this to a Ugandan friend of mine awhile ago, he was completely nonplussed. He said that from the earliest ages in geography and history classes, they were exposed to the ethnic/linguistic maps of all over the world, and they learned how different people's languages and way of life were intermingled and determined by geography, and the corresponding crops, diseases, tools or minerals and the resulting cultures.
Evidently the Brits at one point had set up good schools for some fraction of their subjects.
Wow! What a great resource!
I agree with your analysis of Uganda. However, the map does not change since they are still 2T.Although, language is not the only fault-line in a society, it can be pretty important, and seeing how language faultlines do or do not correspond with political borders can be very helpful in understanding what the civil wars are about.
For example one can get some understanding of the history of Uganda by taking into account the fact that the northern Uganda tribes are on the S. Sudan generational crisis timeline and assume that it's based on their linguistic connection.
I also can connect several other dots
- the roles of the different tribes in Uganda during British colonialism and how that played afterwards in terms of the Obote/Amin/Obote/Akello ugliness.
Notably: the Northerners (Acholi, Langi) were the military corps under the Brits whereas the southerners (Ganda, Nyoro, Nyokore) were the colonial administrators.
Obote/Amin/Obote/Akello were all northerners with military expertise who assumed and vied for power after the Brits left; and in the case of Obote, he tried to destroy the Bugandan kingdom (with the initial alliance of the Western-educated anti-tribal, intelligentsia), while Amin, desperately tried to keep the country united (through the military subordination of Bantu-language speaking civil administration) first against the Ismaili Indians, and then through the war against Tanzania.
- the civil war in northern Uganda started at about the same time as that of S. Sudan, which also was approximately after the Bugandans, with help from other Bantu language people (Western Uganda, Rwandese, Tanzanians) took control over Uganda to the disadvantage of the Nilo-Saharan language people.
This Nilo-Saharan/Bantu Language fault line looks like where the real national borders could be if S. Sudan breaks off formally from Sudan and Uganda cedes Acholiland, etal.
While the level of social and economic development of the Bantu peoples is much more sophisticated, the combination of S. Sudan’s oil and livestock properties with N. Ugandan and NE DR Congo’s water access and fertile land would be accelerative of the development of the Nilo-Saharan people.
Great stuff!-the extent of the Nilo-Saharan languages looks to somewhat correlate with where the tsetse flies/African Sleeping Sickness are absent; the tsetse fly probably determined the range which the Nilo-Saharan people's livestock raising mode of production could spread in earlier times.
The connection between Nilo-Saharan livestock mode of production and military expertise is the following:
To protect one's herds from rustlers and to take over grazing lands with access to water, one developes martial skills. Those with the best martial skills ends up being able have the largest herds and access to the best lands.
Thus when the Brits arrived in Uganda, they employed the northern livestock herding tribes as their military force since they were much better warriors than the southerners.
I expect however, that there may have been additional generational timeline bases for why the northerners were more willing to fight on behalf of the Brits, when they arrived.
I wonder how often a similar set of dynamics played out throughout the continent (and world) during the process of decolonization of multiethnic states.
When I sent this to a Ugandan friend of mine awhile ago, he was completely nonplussed. He said that from the earliest ages in geography and history classes, they were exposed to the ethnic/linguistic maps of all over the world, and they learned how different people's languages and way of life were intermingled and determined by geography, and the corresponding crops, diseases, tools or minerals and the resulting cultures.
Evidently the Brits at one point had set up good schools for some fraction of their subjects.
