I've decided to post what I've completed so far, which is everything this side of the Atlantic. The rest is coming.

Internal Crisis War (ethnic) -- Major war among ethnic groups.
Internal Crisis War (political) -- Major war along political lines in a country.
External Crisis War -- Pretty Straightforward. Nations fighting other nations.
Rebellion -- Perhaps a war, but not a Crisis War. Just a major rebellion.
High Instability -- Not really a full rebellion, nor just a coup. But lots of crap.
Coup -- Perhaps riots and some violence, but its a coup first.
Reform -- A major period of reform without much of the above.
Miscellaneous -- Stuff that doesn't fit. Economics, government killing its own people.

The order is intentional (although External Crisis War could be moved to the number 1 spot) and one should go down the list for evaluation. For example, if there is a Civil War between two different political parties (option 2), but the parties are exclusively made up of two different ethnic groups, then it would be option 1. Or if there is a full-blown rebellion that is capped off by a coup, then it fits under a rebellion, since rebellion indicates a higher level of Crisis energy.

Some countries may have to have two categories such as China's most recent Crisis and the American Revolution, which involved both an internal and external war.

There is an disproportionate amount of 'High Instability' in this list.

Here goes:

Internal Crisis War (ethnic)

Internal Crisis War (political)

USA -- Revolutionary War -- 1773-1783
USA -- Civil War -- 1856-1865
Mexico -- Mexican Revolution -- 1910-1921
Cuba -- Cuban Revolution -- 1956-1959
Guatemala -- Civil War -- 1966-1983
El Salvador -- Salvadoran Civil War -- 1980-1992
Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru Bolivia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Colombia -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
Colombia -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958

External Crisis War

USA -- Revolutionary War -- 1773-1783
USA, Western Europe (minus Spain) -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Mexico -- War of Independence -- 1810-1821
Cuba -- Ten Years War -- 1868-1878
Haiti -- Haitian Revolution -- 1791-1804
Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru Bolivia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Brazil -- Brazilian War of Independence -- 1821-1825 (could be placed in ‘Rebellion’)
Peru -- Peruvian War of Independence -- 1812-1824
Peru, Bolivia, Chile -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
Paraguay, Argentina -- War of the Triple Alliance -- 1864-1870
Paraguay -- Chaco War -- 1932-1935
Uruguay -- Uruguayan War of Independence -- 1811-1825
Chile -- Chilean War of Independence -- 1810-1825
Argentina -- Argentinean War of Independence -- 1810-1817

Rebellion

Haiti -- 1915 Coup + Rebellion -- 1911-1934
Ecuador -- Liberal Takeover + Civil War -- 1895-1911 (possibly aborted civil war)

High Instability

Honduras -- Football War + Coups etc. -- 1963-1983
Brazil -- Establishment of Old Republic -- 1889-1898
Brazil -- Military Takeover -- 1964-1974
Ecuador -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1960-1972
Peru -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1968-1985
Bolivia -- Revolutionary Nationalist Movement -- 1952-1980
Suriname -- 1980 Coups plus Rebellion -- 1980-1992
Uruguay -- Military Government -- 1959-1980

Coup


Reform

Uruguay -- José Batlle y Ordóñez -- 1903-1915

Miscellaneous

Chile -- Pinochet Rule -- 1973-1978
Argentina -- Dirty War -- 1973-1983

---------------------------------------------------------

So there you have it. Let me know if I made a mistake!

Matt

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

If you're constructing a plot, this is the order in which things happen in the ending - the Crisis, when everything falls apart and the heroes have to stake everything on the outcome; the Climax, when whatever happens, happens; and the resolution, when the loose ends are tied off. I believe this structure has been adopted by storytellers everywhere because it feels like the way things really happen - that therefore it is an underlying pattern found in many, many events in real life - because it actually follows logically.

Sorry to be obtuse - my head's a little full after two hours of the chat.

LOL okay. My brain is so fired up right now in this completely concrete application I've been doing that making connections to something outside of generational theory is beyond my capacity.

But I agree?

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Minor changes:

Costa Rica and Guyana to 3T. I'm just considering that whole area to be on Colombia's timelines.

French Guiana to gray. My old conclusion was forward.

Costa Rica had a brief but horrible civil war in 1948. Make sure that wasn't a 4T climax before you go assuming it's on Colombia's timeline.

Can't speak to the other two.

Originally Posted by 1990

Costa Rica had a brief but horrible civil war in 1948. Make sure that wasn't a 4T climax

A climax of what?

before you go assuming it's on Colombia's timeline.

I don't see any other options.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

A climax of what?



I don't see any other options.

The civil war was the single most notable event in Costa Rica during the 20th century, disrupting its long peaceful and democratic reputation. 2,000 people died in 44 days. That's a lot for a country of that size. The effect on Costa Rican politics seems to have been big too: in ensuing years, a new constitution was drafted guaranteeing free and regular elections with universal suffrage, and the military was abolished from political life. Since then Costa Rica has been Central America's shining example of freedom, peace, and prosperity.

By your account, Costa Rica should have had a 4T *after* the civil war with a climax around 1960-1965, but instead things look solidly 1T under Figueres from 1948 to 1958 (his PLN wholly dominated politics as he attempted grand, sweeping reforms, most of which won public trust and succeeded).

Not until in the mid-late 1970s do I see any signs of difficulty, and then they look to be of a Jimmy Carter / Martin Van Buren 2T variety.

Originally Posted by 1990

The civil war was the single most notable event in Costa Rica during the 20th century, disrupting its long peaceful and democratic reputation. 2,000 people died in 44 days. That's a lot for a country of that size. The effect on Costa Rican politics seems to have been big too: in ensuing years, a new constitution was drafted guaranteeing free and regular elections with universal suffrage, and the military was abolished from political life. Since then Costa Rica has been Central America's shining example of freedom, peace, and prosperity.

By your account, Costa Rica should have had a 4T *after* the civil war with a climax around 1960-1965, but instead things look solidly 1T under Figueres from 1948 to 1958 (his PLN wholly dominated politics as he attempted grand, sweeping reforms, most of which won public trust and succeeded).

Not until in the mid-late 1970s do I see any signs of difficulty, and then they look to be of a Jimmy Carter / Martin Van Buren 2T variety.

Technically, I'm including the Civil War as part of the Crisis, but I can't see it as a climax. It would come to soon, and it cannot stand on its own. It was part of Gran Colombia. Like I said, I have no other options.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

The war death/destruction factor.

Well of course. Loads of people died, and lots of stuff was broken. But the society that won the war was practically indistinguishable -- from the inside, as well as the out -- from the one that rang in the 40s. That alone is enough to smash any pretensions of WWII as a Russian Turning event.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Well of course. Loads of people died, and lots of stuff was broken. But the society that won the war was practically indistinguishable -- from the inside, as well as the out -- from the one that rang in the 40s. That alone is enough to smash any pretensions of WWII as a Russian Turning event.

Oh, I agree, regardless of what S&H said. World War Two is certainly one of the major events in Russian history, but from a generational standpoint, it doesn't act like a 4T.

Justin, in Russia, what are your turning dates since the Revolution?

I'm starting here with an easy country study: the United States. Mexico will be ready later in the week.

United States Turnings and Generations

The following is an analysis of the last two saecula in United States history.

1857 – 1865: Civil War (Crisis)

The inauguration of President James Buchanan, the economic Panic of 1857, and the Supreme Court’s Dred Scott decision all helped catalyze a premature Crisis mood, as regional rifts became so irreconcilable that civil war could not be averted. This abbreviated Crisis, coming after an abbreviated Unraveling, did not need time to pack a punch; it was short but incredibly destructive, possibly the most destructive Crisis in Anglo-American history. When the war ended in 1865, Reconstruction provided a model for recovery and healing, but the South was left thoroughly decimated.

Defining Leader: Abraham Lincoln

Child Generation: Some of the Progressive Generation (Artist) and some of the Missionary Generation (Prophet), due to the brevity of this turning.


1865 – 1886: Reconstruction & Gilded Age (Recovery)

While the South attempted to rise out of the ashes through Reconstruction, a new civic order was in place; one that, on a national scale, favored the Republican Party (even as the South remained almost unanimously Democratic), and one in which political power rested with the industrial North, where great technological progress was being made. Railroads, factories, and new institutions reflected a booming nation which was surging into Gilded Age industrialism and prosperity with confidence. At the same time, this was an unusually acrimonious Recovery, coming after an exceptionally painful Crisis.

Child Generation: The Missionary Generation (Prophet) was raised with the increasing looseness of a formerly war-torn society which was seeing remarkably rapid advances in science, technology, and the economy. They came of age as muckrakers, suffragists, religious activists, and intellectuals, and later in life became the moralists of the Prohibition era and the visionary elder statesmen of World War II.


1886 – 1908: Third Great Awakening (Awakening)

As the Haymarket Riot rocked Chicago in 1886, a new mood was coming over society. Over the next two decades the nation pulsed with new ideas and ideals pioneered by Missionary youth, from anarchists (Emma Goldman) to socialists (Upton Sinclair) to evangelicals (Billy Sunday) to Chautauqua orators (William Jennings Bryan) to feminists (Jeannette Rankin). This Awakening, having more than exposed the ugly side of Gilded Age prosperity, was especially powerful in setting the stage for the ideological battles of the next Unraveling.

Child Generation: The Lost Generation (Nomad) was underprotected, even abandoned, as society saw a flood of substance abuse, crime, immigration, and urbanization. They came of age attacked as uneducated and “bad”, yet produced some of the 20th century’s greatest writers and lyricists – and, later in life, the generals who would lead World War II and politicians who would buck the old ways and stand for a new kind of “working man” populism.


1908 – 1929: World War I & Prohibition (Unraveling)

The frenetic mood of the Third Great Awakening had expired by 1908, when what should have been a closely-watched presidential election turned into a light-on-substance affair seen with great apathy and complacency from the public. World War I, though victorious, was met with little fanfare, as demoralized “doughboy” troops returned home to vice squads and an increasingly cynical culture. The 1920s brimmed with celebrity circuses and ever-more vitriolic and shrill moral debates, as Prohibition, the Scopes Trial, women’s suffrage, and a perceived “breakdown of the family” all provided sufficient fodder for endless name-calling.

Child Generation: The GI Generation (Hero) was raised with the increasing protection of a society which was trying to save the next generation from its own supposed cultural pathologies. They came of age as optimistic and dedicated civil servants and soldiers, and later in life became the institution-builders of the American High and the beleaguered elder statesmen of the Consciousness Revolution.

1929 – 1945: Great Depression & World War II (Crisis)

The dramatic stock market crash on Black Tuesday in 1929 catalyzed a new Crisis mood, as the worst depression of all time leveled financial resources and brought the economy to its knees. President Franklin Roosevelt’s massive reforms of the New Deal radically reshaped the role of government in society and in the economy, but recovery was slow to come. Just as the Depression was coming to an end, it was finally killed in grand fashion with the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941, which brought the United States into World War II, later to become the bloodiest conflict in human history. After the war ended victoriously in 1945, the U.S. found itself as one of two great superpowers for the first time, and was able to use its newfound leverage to craft a new world order.

Defining Leader: Franklin Roosevelt

Child Generation: The Silent Generation (Artist) was overprotected, even suffocated, as society engaged in painful civic overhauls and institutional rebirth. They came of age as “silent” and conformist helpmates, but later in life broke free to produce some of the 20th century’s greatest advocates of social justice, diplomacy, and due process.



1945 – 1963: American High (Recovery)

As World War II came to its decisively victorious conclusion, the U.S. was now “leading the free world” as its great power, driven by the most equitable (and genuinely healthy) economy in memory, and with a rediscovered sense of optimism and ambition to accomplish great things, from curing diseases to building interstate highways and landing a man on the moon. As gleaming, comfy new suburbs housed young families in placid Rockwellian conformity, politicians claimed an end to ideology, science advanced, and America was said to be at an historic high point of group achievement and a low point of individual empowerment.


Child Generation: The Boom Generation (Prophet) was raised the increasing looseness of a society newly drenched in exceptional prosperity and technological superiority. Growing up on TV dinners and Dr. Spock parenting, they came of age as environmentalists, hippies, born-again Christians, second-wave feminists, antiwar activists, and latter-day utopists, later becoming the unrelenting culture warriors and spiritual seekers of our time.


1963 – 1984: Consciousness Revolution (Awakening)

The assassination of President Kennedy in November 1963 profoundly shook the American people; in one day, Camelot had been killed, and the “end to ideology” with it. Boomers – first students, and later popular icons – introduced a fiery new brand of youth which proudly challenged authority (Vietnam, Watergate) and refused to let society continue down its spiritually hollow and culturally bland path. Whether activists (Angela Davis), musicians (David Bowie), or visionaries (Bill Gates), the young adults of this Awakening thoroughly revolutionized American culture, utterly de-legitimizing the postwar order in the process.

Child Generation: Generation X (Nomad) was underprotected, even abandoned, as society clamored to rediscover its soul and remake its inner workings, often through pathologies which saw drug use and crime rise to their highest levels since the 1920s. They came of age seen as nihilistic, alienated "reality bites" latchkey kids and grunger youth, yet have produced more than their share of pop culture pioneers and cutting-edge entrepreneurs.


1984 – present?: Culture Wars (Unraveling)

The tumult of the Consciousness Revolution was gone by 1984, as “Morning in America” pride and “greed is good” individualism slowly swept over the country, while a stagflation-driven malaise was replaced by a new mood of profound complacency and fluffy celebrity-circus indulgence. As years wore on, pessimism, along with a revived apathy, returned with a vengeance, growing by the year as budget deficits soared, politics grew shriller and more partisan, media spectacles abounded, and worries about world affairs resurfaced. Angry moral arguments were fueled by debates over gay rights, abortion, guns, school prayer, and immigration, all while public trust in government leveled to its lowest nadir in generations.

Child Generation: The Millennial Generation (Hero) was raised with the increasing protection of a society eager to spare its children from the bitter political environment of warring values camps, and eager to raise a generation of ambitious students and crime-free “good kids”. They are coming of age with high levels of civic and community activity and a possibly unprecedented reputation as overachievers.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Technically, I'm including the Civil War as part of the Crisis, but I can't see it as a climax. It would come to soon, and it cannot stand on its own. It was part of Gran Colombia. Like I said, I have no other options.

Costa Rica was not part of Gran Columbia. ] It was part of the Central American Federation. Of the central american states, only Panama was part of Gran Columbia.
BTW, everything I've ever read about the Costa Rican civil war of 1948 read very 4tish to me. The whole of their current political systems wa crafted after this event. How much more 4t can you get?

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I don't think that Al Gore or the others believe a word that they're
saying (just as they didn't believe their parents' warnings about
Communism). If they did, they wouldn't be making dumb jokes about
donating money to Greenpeace in exchange for owning huge houses and
huge SUVs.

Doctrinairre communism is a dead ideology, the collapse of the Soviet Union and end of the cold war saw to that. Elsewhere china, vietnam and cuba have morphed into essentially traditional autocracies. Only in remote north Korea does something resembling Leninism and stalinism exists and that country is run by the kim dynasty absolute rule and not by a soviet-style politburo.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Costa Rica was not part of Gran Columbia. ] It was part of the Central American Federation. Of the central american states, only Panama was part of Gran Columbia.
BTW, everything I've ever read about the Costa Rican civil war of 1948 read very 4tish to me. The whole of their current political systems wa crafted after this event. How much more 4t can you get?

Wikipedia tells me some areas were part of Gran Colombia, but I have my doubts. I'll take a few more looks.

You can get more 4T by having a Crisis longer than 44 days.

I've been a bit busy lately so my working on the map got put interrupted, sorry for not replying here in a while.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

The Sahel countries had 4Ts manifested in...

I, too, have done a thorough study of the Sahel but found nothing that resembles a 4T.

The Sahelian drought seemed to have been a crisis catalyst and then things then got more politically stable (relatively) in the 90s. Maybe I'm over analyzing things and seeing patterns that don't exist. I'll give The Sahel a more thorough look this weekend

Originally Posted by Odin

I've been a bit busy lately so my working on the map got put interrupted, sorry for not replying here in a while.



The Sahelian drought seemed to have been a crisis catalyst and then things then got more politically stable (relatively) in the 90s. Maybe I'm over analyzing things and seeing patterns that don't exist. I'll give The Sahel a more thorough look this weekend

Please do! I haven't seen a Crisis in the 20th century.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

You can get more 4T by having a Crisis longer than 44 days.

The 44 day war was the climax. Before things reached that point there was a period of unrest for the first time scince the 1870's about 70 years eariler, hint, hint.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

The 44 day war was the climax. Before things reached that point there was a period of unrest for the first time scince the 1870's about 70 years eariler, hint, hint.

A climax of what? Please indicate the Crisis period + source!

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

A climax of what? Please indicate the Crisis period + source!

In a sense, it was like our last 4t in that it started out economic before the military element became a factor. This article may help some.

Dear Matt and Nathaniel,

Well, that was amusing. We learned some things.

First, we learned that Strauss and Howe have now FULLY ACCEPTED the
multiple timeline concept. As far as I know, this is the first time
that we've known this for sure. And they didn't contest the
different Mideast timelines that I posted.

Second, we learned that they're writing what appear to be top-secret
"country study notes," although they're obviously way behind where you
guys are. They mentioned a book in 2010, so perhaps they're planning
a book on these country notes in that time frame.

I'm actually relieved. It was really bothering me that they appeared
to have abandoned TFT, and were stuck in the theory as of the mid
1990s. Their work on that Russian country note indicates that
they've advanced to a more up to date view of generational theory.

I wonder what methodology they're using to identify turnings in other
countries?

They also have a concept of "3T disintegration" that might be worth
looking into some more.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com

Originally Posted by herbal tee

In a sense, it was like our last 4t in that it started out economic before the military element became a factor. This article may help some.

Well, as far as I can tell, this not your typical Crisis. However, I can imagine the people were shocked at the sudden display of violence and lightning fast political change! I'm not sure where it fits into my categorization, however. I'm going to put it into 'Rebellion.' Back to red.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Dear Matt and Nathaniel,

Well, that was amusing. We learned some things.

First, we learned that Strauss and Howe have now FULLY ACCEPTED the
multiple timeline concept. As far as I know, this is the first time
that we've known this for sure. And they didn't contest the
different Mideast timelines that I posted.

It directly contradicted their claims that the Mideast is 3T. I would have liked to here more reasoning, but it sounds like they see the Islamic Resurgence as the key determinant. I really can't agree with this, because the awakening was manifested in different ways in each country. In Iran, it was manifested in violent revolution, and then, genocidal war. Certainly not a 2T for them.

Second, we learned that they're writing what appear to be top-secret
"country study notes," although they're obviously way behind where you
guys are. They mentioned a book in 2010, so perhaps they're planning
a book on these country notes in that time frame.

I think that was the Generations update. We'll see.

I'm actually relieved. It was really bothering me that they appeared
to have abandoned TFT, and were stuck in the theory as of the mid
1990s. Their work on that Russian country note indicates that
they've advanced to a more up to date view of generational theory.

I wonder what methodology they're using to identify turnings in other
countries?

They also have a concept of "3T disintegration" that might be worth
looking into some more.

I know any S&H concept would be a generation-first method of identification. It strikes me as bizarre that they consider Putin a Prophet. Here's the Wikipedia page on on Putin quotes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin#Selected_quotes

Jokes aside (or not), does this sound like a Boomer or an Xer? I'm inclined to think the latter. I'm sure Justin '77 has plenty more.

The 3T is a time of disunity, decay, and individualism. A quick look over the history of that time can lead to the conclusion that the collapse was the cause and a reflection of the above.

To me, everything about that period seems 4T. The run-up to the fall was a clear mood shift where new confidence inspired ACTION. Following the fall was a time of mass reform, a severe economic depression, a sense of unity that has lasted to the present day. So I can't classify the mood as 3T.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Oh, I agree, regardless of what S&H said. World War Two is certainly one of the major events in Russian history, but from a generational standpoint, it doesn't act like a 4T.

Justin, in Russia, what are your turning dates since the Revolution?

Found 'em.

http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...0&postcount=49

Dear Matt,

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

> It directly contradicted their claims that the Mideast is 3T. I
> would have liked to here more reasoning, but it sounds like they
> see the Islamic Resurgence as the key determinant. I really can't
> agree with this, because the awakening was manifested in different
> ways in each country. In Iran, it was manifested in violent
> revolution, and then, genocidal war. Certainly not a 2T for them.

Take a look at what Neil said. I made the point about the
destruction of the Ottoman empire and the Istanbul Caliphate as being
the seminal event of the century, and that all the countries in the
region were formed out of pieces of the Ottoman empire. He said,
"What about Israel," and I responded to that. I don't think he
disagrees.

There's really no other possible interpretation anyway. The
destruction of the Ottoman empire cannot be anything but a 4T event,
so the 1980s had to be another 4T. The Islamic resurgence actually
started in the 1940s, which WAS an Awakening era.

** 1946 Intelligence Report: Islam - A Threat to World Stability
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e070623#e070623

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: <a href="http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com">http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com</a>

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

I know any S&H concept would be a generation-first method of identification. It strikes me as bizarre that they consider Putin a Prophet. Here's the Wikipedia page on on Putin quotes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin#Selected_quotes

Jokes aside (or not), does this sound like a Boomer or an Xer? I'm inclined to think the latter. I'm sure Justin '77 has plenty more.

I'm not sure that quotes are the best way to go for proof. But he does have a way with the slams that puts him up with the best of the Xers that I've ever known.

However, since we're talking quotes, let's let the man himself tell us about the Russian 4T:

I will recall once more Russia’s most recent history.

Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century. As for the Russian nation, it became a genuine drama. Tens of millions of our co-citizens and compatriots found themselves outside Russian territory. Moreover, the epidemic of disintegration infected Russia itself.

Individual savings were depreciated, and old ideals destroyed. Many institutions were disbanded or reformed carelessly. Terrorist intervention and the Khasavyurt capitulation that followed damaged the country's integrity. Oligarchic groups — possessing absolute control over information channels — served exclusively their own corporate interests. Mass poverty began to be seen as the norm. And all this was happening against the backdrop of a dramatic economic downturn, unstable finances, and the paralysis of the social sphere.

Many thought or seemed to think at the time that our young democracy was not a continuation of Russian statehood, but its ultimate collapse, the prolonged agony of the Soviet system.

But they were mistaken.That was precisely the period when the significant developments took place in Russia. Our society was generating not only the energy of self-preservation, but also the will for a new and free life.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

Take a look at what Neil said. I made the point about the
destruction of the Ottoman empire and the Istanbul Caliphate as being
the seminal event of the century, and that all the countries in the
region were formed out of pieces of the Ottoman empire. He said,
"What about Israel," and I responded to that. I don't think he
disagrees.

Turkey seems to be on the Russian timeline while the rest of the middle east is mid 3T.