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Thread: Official 'Map Project' Thread - Page 18







Post#426 at 07-13-2007 02:57 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Russia has nukes and gigantic land, sea, and air forces. That makes it much more significant than Ethiopia -- except to Ethiopians, I suppose.
??? In generational evaluation, it makes no difference; politically, maybe - but that's not what we were discussing.

Three waves of Crises with abortive 1Ts between them. (NEP, post-Purge 'breathers'. A mix-up between a 4T and 1T followed by a bad 1T? NEP times and the post-Purge silence aren't what most people recognize about Russian history between 1914 and 1945. Russian and Soviet history for those thirty or so years was awkward in the extreme -- and "awkward" is a euphemism -- because of the catastrophic bungling of Nicholas II, the genocidal ruthlessness of both Reds and Whites in the Russian Civil War, the paranoid despotism of Stalin, and then the viciousness of the Nazi assault upon the Soviet Union.
You still haven't explained how generations automatically revert to Crisis roles.

Generations shape events and economic trends-- but just as significantly, events and economic trends shape generations. The generational cycle is a feedback loop -- but like most feedback loops it can go haywire when something from outside forces a huge disruption.
This is silly. A wave of the hand, citing "influence" in reverting generational roles to previous eras, isn't enough to convince anyone, least of all yourself. You've fallen for it although you still haven't shown one case where it has happened. How could you possibly come to that conclusion and be so adamant about it?







Post#427 at 07-13-2007 04:07 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> 1. We don't know what it will be, or who the opposing sides will
> be, or any exact timetable.
True.

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> 2. We don't know who will win the Crisis
True.

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> 3. How well a country solves its problems without creating
> intractable new ones -- the ones that can be solved only by
> overthrow of the system -- will likely determine who has an edge.
Not provable.

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> 4. People who have little knowledge of the previous Crisis are
> least likely to fear the next one.
Not provable.

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> 5. Idealist leaders generally are more appropriate top leaders of
> a nation through the worst part of a Crisis Era than are Reactive
> leaders.
Not provable.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#428 at 07-13-2007 04:24 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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The severity of the war has little effect of the generational constellation unless it is something on the scale of a thermonuclear war that destroys or nearly destroys industrial society. Stalin's rule and WW2 was nasty, but it wasn't even close to being bad enough to reset the saeculum.As I stated above, the Napoleonic Wars were a very nasty 1T war that had little effect on the Western European saeculum other then reinforcing the typical 1T conformism.

bad 1T war: reinforces conformism
bad 2T war: reinforces the Old Order's loss of legitimacy.
bad 3T war: reinforces the acrimonious and divisive mood, can trigger an early, anomalous 4T if bad enough and occurs late enough in the turning.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#429 at 07-13-2007 04:55 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
The severity of the war has little effect of the generational constellation unless it is something on the scale of a thermonuclear war that destroys or nearly destroys industrial society.
I could see this being true, but it has never happened, so we can't know for sure.

bad 1T war: reinforces conformism
bad 2T war: reinforces the Old Order's loss of legitimacy.
bad 3T war: reinforces the acrimonious and divisive mood, can trigger an early, anomalous 4T if bad enough and occurs late enough in the turning.
I agree with this. However, it wouldn't be anomalous, since it has happened so often. A plurality of Crisis Wars have occurred between the 50-59 period, as opposed to any 10 year set beginning with a zero.

I would argue that religious awakenings can be interpreted along the same lines.







Post#430 at 07-13-2007 07:12 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
However, it wouldn't be anomalous, since it has happened so often. A plurality of Crisis Wars have occurred between the 50-59 period, as opposed to any 10 year set beginning with a zero.
I don't disagree, though it seems that it's harder to a 4T to catalyze if the cohorts that have been being raised in the Civic fashion (I don't think the ultimate boundaries of a Civic/Hero generation can be set until the Crisis climax) have not reached adulthood. This is because of the collectively-minded nature of cohorts with a Civic style of uprising makes them more willing to carry out the plans of the aging Prophets. An early 4T should result in a group of cohorts that are Nomad-Civic hybrids (people with a Nomad childhood with a Civic-style coming of age), the entire Gilded Generation being an extreme example.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#431 at 07-13-2007 07:39 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Let's see... Yevtushenko? Shchedrin? Gagarin? Clearly Artists. I'd say that Russians born between 1928 and 1943, more or less, were Artists, much as was so in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Japan.

They were the children of the time in which Josef Stalin enacted about the only admirable legislation... that that prohibited corporal punishment in schools. They were fortunate that they were not purged in Stalin's persecutions of real and imagined enemies. Gorbachev and Yeltsin were reformers -- not revolutionaries. Gorbachev tried to save the Soviet system by humanizing it. Glasnost and perestroika were intended to reform the system into a going concern... and we can only guess whether those who sought a continuation of the hard-line characteristics of the system proved Gorbachev's efforts futile. A democratic Soviet Union might have been nice to have around.

Shostakovich? Solzhenitsyn? Sakharov? Kalashnikov? Artem Mikoyan? Those seem clear-cut Civics in my book. They got cold feet about the System only after the Second World War, if at all. Think of all those images of veterans of the Great Patriotic War -- common people -- wearing medals from that war. Later generations didn't experience the war -- or get the medals.

Khrushchev... Zhukov... Malinovsky...Anastas Mikoyan? clear-cut examples of the sorts of Nomad leaders who lead the troops, do the diplomacy, and administer the home front. (Sure, most of Stalin's henchmen were of this generation. I'm going to accept that the Idealist/Reactive boundary in Russia as well as most of Europe was around 1877 so that I can fit Stalin into the model of a Reactive who shoves aside or "purges" out elder Idealists).

No Idealists? Sure. They were either puppets like Kalinin or... gone, like most of the early Bolsheviks that Stalin purged as potential rivals. That's how things were in Germany, Italy, and Japan, too... but not America, Great Britain, or Canada. That some generational constellation is the ideal for meeting a Crisis Era hardly indicates that that generational constellation will be in place.

Russian children (born in the 1840s and 1850s) at the time of the Crimean War through Alexander II's emancipation of the serfs were well off the scene around the time of the Russian Revolution.

I see Russia as having gone through a Crisis of unusual length and severity, beginning with the Bolshevik Coup and the subsequent (and extermination-filled) Russian Civil War between the Reds and the Whites, Stalin's forced collectivization (with enforcement of extreme ferocity) and Great Purge (another Revolution, in effect), and of course the Great Patriotic War -- conducted genocidally. Have you ever sampled the writings of Ilya Ehrenberg, who said things nearly as blood-curdling as anything Josef Goebbels or Julius Streicher ever said or penned? If you think the American deportation of Japanese-Americans and resident aliens harsh, what can you say of the wholesale uprooting of ethnic groups (Crimean Tatars, Volga Germans) seen as potentially treacherous?

In few places was life so cheaply forfeit -- often for illusory grounds -- than in Russia for about 30 years. Sure, there were comparative respites, as in the late 1920s and perhaps the very late 1930s... that means little. Those were eyes of the storm, so to speak, and clearly not eras in themselves.

The three-wave Crisis solved little, but at a huge cost. Was Russia in 1946 much improved from Russia in 1913? There was more literacy and some industrial development... but far less than had there been peace and greater respect for human dignity. Some things were obviously worse. Infamous as tsarist Russia was, it had an independent and well-respected judiciary. It had cultural and scientific freedom, and Russian achievements in science and culture in late tsarist times were quite good. Many of those people who might have otherwise created a very different Russia during that time were either dead or making their contributions to progress (including about half the Jewish population of the United States).

Its industry had been in boom. Russia was poor by the standards of western Europe... but no worse than Japan or India at the time, let alone China. A few reforms at the right time could have saved the system -- and the right time was the 3T of the previous Saeculum. It's easy to see how Nicholas II could have saved Russia from thirty years of disaster: he could have revoked the anti-Jewish measures that ensured that talented Jews disenchanted with the system either fled or turned to Bolshevism, he could have allowed the Duma -- which could have become a distinguished Parliament -- genuine authority; he could have allowed trade unions to operate openly. It would have been wise also to improve the road system in Russia even as a military measure for better logistics and maneuver in the event of war as well as for better distribution of civilian goods.

Could a Reactive/Nomad generation follow an Adaptive/Artist generation in a cycle if the Crisis ensures that the post-war children will be impoverished instead of indulged? It seems unlikely -- but so does a three-wave, thirty-year Crisis Era. Systems as totalitarian as the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China are capable of ensuring that youth never get the chance to challenge the political or cultural norms of society. Marxism-Leninism operates by different rules than those of any other ideological basis of governance, and those rules nearly preclude dissent. Marxism-Leninism ignores the generational cycle and the complexities of human nature at the risk of catastrophic failure.

***************

Let's all agree on this point, an answer to an obvious question: why do we even discuss this topic?

Because history is important, and it is no mere disjointed collection of events and biographical details. We are trying to make sense of history.

Whatever differences we may have on interpreting events in Russia, a big player in human history if not always for the best, we would all have to agree that thirty years of history so ferocious as those that Russians experienced between August 1914 and May 1945 would ensure that even a great military victory would leave a wrecked people in its wake. The weapons in place at the 3T/4T cusp are enough to bring about the extinction of humanity, and even 'reasonable' restraint might leave a ruined world for children unfortunate enough to be born into the wreckage of a world that failed to appreciate what it stood to lose. Destruction of two hundred years of industrial development and investment, five hundred years of scientific and intellectual progress, and perhaps the entire moral fabric of society won't require thirty years of political and military catastrophe; it might take only thirty minutes of folly -- and the catastrophe could be world-wide. There might not be a university or even a library to restart the intellectual life, no electric power, a credible government anywhere, or even the Swiss banking system to survive the unspeakable calamity. Books -- and not only the abandoned best-sellers and obsolete how-to books -- and computer, video, and music disks will be burned as fuel to stave off the cold. So long Shakespeare -- and so long Mozart.

Think of a world in which children live and die in radioactive ruins. Think of a world in which people are so cold and desperate that they send children back to the mines to retrieve coals and are so hungry that they latch their children to plows to eke some grain from polluted fields. Think of that scenario lasting for a few centuries in a new Dark Age. That's not the worst scenario possible. Another has little characterization because there will be nobody surviving with the capacity to judge a great failure.

Humanity would have to re-learn what Galileo, Newton, Descartes, Locke, Jefferson, Darwin, Mendel, Mendeleyev, Freud, Einstein, and others learned with considerable difficulty and that we all take for granted today -- with even more difficulty. Children of a world so badly wrecked would not become the pampered youth who grow up to write great poetry or novels of unusual insight, and they would not become founders of new religions. They would be more like the children of the dull Dark Age that followed the collapse of Classical civilization in the 5th century of the Christian Era.

The past is the key to the future. Maybe it takes humanity eighty years to re-discover a fad or folly once rejected only to find out why it was rejected.
If we combine comments from Justin '77 and bg115 posts, we seem to have a pattern somewhat similar to the ACW (American Civil War) anomaly:

Patriotic/WWII generation- Nomad/Civic type (compared to the Gilded by bg115).

Thaw generation-children of WWII, Adaptive (compared to the Progressives by bg115).

Pioneers-post WWII children. Nomad, according to Justin '77.


Given a sandwich of Nomad/Civic, Adaptive, and Nomad, the Adaptives might seem idealistic/visionary by default.

The sequence in Russia resembles the ACW until we get to the post war generation. By the standards of the Gilded Age, the Missionaries were indulged in childhood, and grew up to be actual, if watered down, Prophets.
Last edited by TimWalker; 07-13-2007 at 07:44 PM.







Post#432 at 07-13-2007 07:45 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Oh, and some more thoughts.

IMO the likelihood of a 3T event catalyzing a 4T is dependent on:

1. The strength and nature of the potential sparking event.

If 9/11 would of been a far bigger terrorist attack then it had been it would of triggered a 4T, for example.

2. The political strength of the elder Artists relative to the Prophets

The reason the Civil War Anomaly occurred was that the Transcendental generation's huge length resulted in the Compromisers aging out of power before a Civic generation could come of age. This 3T has been somewhat long apparently because of old Artist politicians hanging on to leadership in many parts of the US government and thus caging in Boomer ideological fervor.

3. The number of Civic cohorts in Young Adulthood.

As more and more cohorts that are raised in a Civic fashion enter Young Adulthood there are more and more people willing to enthusiastically put the ideas thrown around by the Prophets into practice.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#433 at 07-13-2007 08:38 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
If we combine comments from Justin '77 and bg115 posts, we seem to have a pattern somewhat similar to the ACW (American Civil War) anomaly:

Patriotic/WWII generation- Nomad/Civic type (compared to the Gilded by bg115).

Thaw generation-children of WWII, Adaptive (compared to the Progressives by bg115).

Pioneers-post WWII children. Nomad, according to Justin '77.


Given a sandwich of Nomad/Civic, Adaptive, and Nomad, the Adaptives might seem idealistic/visionary by default.

The sequence in Russia resembles the ACW until we get to the post war generation. By the standards of the Gilded Age, the Missionaries were indulged in childhood, and grew up to be actual, if watered down, Prophets.
The big difference is of course that the children of the immediate post-war period in the Soviet Union never had a chance to become Idealist/Prophet types because the Brezhnev-era repression almost exactly contemporaneous to the Boom Awakening in the United States made such impossible. Brezhnev's Soviet Union was a cultural desert, and the Soviet leadership liked things that way.

If you want a comparison elsewhere, then try the American South after the Civil War. By 1876 any loosening in the postwar South was over and dictatorial governments took over. Repression became the norm. The South became a cultural desert as the North, which took a different route. Can you think of any great figures of politics, music, literature, or visual art born in the American South between 1860 and 1882? I think only of Cordell Hull. There was Theodore Bilbo, the arch-exponent of segregationism, and a pitiable joke outside the South. Can you imagine Grandma Moses, Charles Ives, or E.M. Forster coming from the American South?

Where were the Soviet beatniks and hippies of the 1960s and 1970s? What Soviet pop art (remember -- Russia has a great heritage in cultural achievements of all kinds) does anyone listen to? The Brezhnev-era Soviet Union was strict in its rejection of Western counterculture. After all, the country most advanced in social justice, the pioneer in 'socialism' didn't need any cultural ferment (irony intended).
Last edited by pbrower2a; 07-13-2007 at 08:39 PM. Reason: irony intended







Post#434 at 07-13-2007 09:37 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Thumbs down Blah, blah, blah...

Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
The big difference is of course that the children of the immediate post-war period in the Soviet Union never had a chance to become Idealist/Prophet types because the Brezhnev-era repression almost exactly contemporaneous to the Boom Awakening in the United States made such impossible. Brezhnev's Soviet Union was a cultural desert, and the Soviet leadership liked things that way.

If you want a comparison elsewhere, then try the American South after the Civil War. By 1876 any loosening in the postwar South was over and dictatorial governments took over. Repression became the norm. The South became a cultural desert as the North, which took a different route. Can you think of any great figures of politics, music, literature, or visual art born in the American South between 1860 and 1882? I think only of Cordell Hull. There was Theodore Bilbo, the arch-exponent of segregationism, and a pitiable joke outside the South. Can you imagine Grandma Moses, Charles Ives, or E.M. Forster coming from the American South?

Where were the Soviet beatniks and hippies of the 1960s and 1970s? What Soviet pop art (remember -- Russia has a great heritage in cultural achievements of all kinds) does anyone listen to? The Brezhnev-era Soviet Union was strict in its rejection of Western counterculture. After all, the country most advanced in social justice, the pioneer in 'socialism' didn't need any cultural ferment (irony intended).
Justin has repeatedly showed that Russia had an Awakening in the 50s yet you keep spewing the same old "repression = no Prophets" nonsense. Your posts are getting old, dry, and stale.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#435 at 07-13-2007 09:56 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
Oh, and some more thoughts.

IMO the likelihood of a 3T event catalyzing a 4T is dependent on:

1. The strength and nature of the potential sparking event.

If 9/11 would of been a far bigger terrorist attack then it had been it would of triggered a 4T, for example.
Agreed. An unexpected invasion or a sudden government collapse can easily bring on an early 4T. The closer you get to the #60, the greater the likelihood.

I always considered 9/11 to be the start of the 4T. I still do, but it's not in the classic sense. While we haven't faced the "meat" of the Crisis, you cannot consider 2001-2007 an Unraveling. Nearly all countries go through this same feeling at around the 60 year mark, but the definitions are a little too constrictive. I'll propose this:

1T: Recovery
2T: Awakening
3T: Unraveling
4T: Crisis
?T: Post-Unraveling - The period from the ~60 year mid-cycle to the Crisis
5T: Fifth Turning - The period from the ~80 year mid-cycle to the Crisis


2. The political strength of the elder Artists relative to the Prophets

The reason the Civil War Anomaly occurred was that the Transcendental generation's huge length resulted in the Compromisers aging out of power before a Civic generation could come of age. This 3T has been somewhat long apparently because of old Artist politicians hanging on to leadership in many parts of the US government and thus caging in Boomer ideological fervor.
I thought you were in the 'we be 4T' camp.







Post#436 at 07-13-2007 09:57 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
Justin has repeatedly showed that Russia had an Awakening in the 50s yet you keep spewing the same old "repression = no Prophets" nonsense. Your posts are getting old, dry, and stale.
But colorful!







Post#437 at 07-13-2007 10:24 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I thought you were in the 'we be 4T' camp.
The mood seems to have changed in 2005. Whether that was the turning shift of something else I'm not totally sure anymore. All I know is that me a lot of other people I know have this nervous feeling of impending doom.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#438 at 07-13-2007 11:42 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
The mood seems to have changed in 2005. Whether that was the turning shift of something else I'm not totally sure anymore. All I know is that me a lot of other people I know have this nervous feeling of impending doom.
Gee, I just see exacerbation of pessimism in 2005. 9/11 had a much more serious impact on national mood. It was a radical change in direction.







Post#439 at 07-14-2007 01:13 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
The big difference is of course that the children of the immediate post-war period in the Soviet Union never had a chance to become Idealist/Prophet types because the Brezhnev-era repression almost exactly contemporaneous to the Boom Awakening in the United States made such impossible. Brezhnev's Soviet Union was a cultural desert, and the Soviet leadership liked things that way.
Why do you keep repeating this baseless, ignorant claim? What superior knowledge do you have that allows you to persist in supporting it, regardless the evidence shown to the contrary?

I am truly curious.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#440 at 07-14-2007 01:21 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
If we combine comments from Justin '77 and bg115 posts, we seem to have a pattern somewhat similar to the ACW (American Civil War) anomaly:

Patriotic/WWII generation- Nomad/Civic type (compared to the Gilded by bg115).

Thaw generation-children of WWII, Adaptive (compared to the Progressives by bg115).

Pioneers-post WWII children. Nomad, according to Justin '77.
I'm not sure I'm following your nomenclature. When you say 'Thaw generation' are you referring to the people who were children, young adults, middle-aged, or leaders during the Russian 2T? Similarly for the 'Patriotic/WWII' generation (the Russian 1T).

The children of the time immediately post WWII were[/are] clearly Nomad gen; those who were children during the 30s and 40s were Prophet gen - some of the big pushers during the Thaw; those children during the Thaw came to be the Civics.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#441 at 07-14-2007 01:34 AM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Gee, I just see exacerbation of pessimism in 2005. 9/11 had a much more serious impact on national mood. It was a radical change in direction.
Naw, the reaction to 9/11 seems typically 3T, lots of initial enthusiasm followed by a poor follow-through and very little in the way of serious personal sacrifice by the average American (Message to Joe Shmoe: That "support our troops" sticker on your SUV doesn't count as serious personal sacrifice ) . Remember Bush telling us it was our patriotic duty to go shopping?
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#442 at 07-14-2007 01:58 AM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Gee, I just see exacerbation of pessimism in 2005. 9/11 had a much more serious impact on national mood. It was a radical change in direction.
More Americans have been killed in Iraq in the response to Saddam Hussein's non-existent WMD program than died of the 9/11 atttacks.

The failure of the Bush administration to maintain widespread enthusiasm for the war in Iraq demonstrates either that (1) we aren't in a 4T, in which we would believe anything that our leaders tell us, or (2) we aren't in a 4T because too little has changed.

If we were in a genuine 4T war we'd have kids being drafted to serve in the war; we'd have rationing of various forms; we'd have higher taxes. We would be told to consume less so that our soldiers could have the equipment that they need to finish the job. We'd have more of our industry on a war footing.

9/11 was a portent of a 4T, a time in which we Americans expected major changes in our lives. Then the President told us to "go shopping" -- not "enlist", "buy war bonds", "drive less", or "get work in war plants". We got tax cuts intended largely to enrich the rich. The Fed opened the floodgates of credit so that people could bid up real estate and go deeper into debt. War in Iraq became a method of enriching the war profiteers who paid handsomely into Dubya's campaign.

We will know that we are in a 4T when our Best and Brightest defer college educations to serve their country or when the debt-inflated bubble bursts.







Post#443 at 07-14-2007 02:42 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Cool

Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
Naw, the reaction to 9/11 seems typically 3T, lots of initial enthusiasm followed by a poor follow-through and very little in the way of serious personal sacrifice by the average American (Message to Joe Shmoe: That "support our troops" sticker on your SUV doesn't count as serious personal sacrifice ) . Remember Bush telling us it was our patriotic duty to go shopping?
Personal sacrifice hasn't come yet. It DOES come with the territory of being in a Crisis, but I'm referring to a mood shift and a rapid change in dialogue. Methinks you are treating this as a political issue ^^ (but seriously, I do).







Post#444 at 07-14-2007 02:44 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
More Americans have been killed in Iraq in the response to Saddam Hussein's non-existent WMD program than died of the 9/11 atttacks.
You too?! This is NOT A POLITICAL THING.

The failure of the Bush administration to maintain widespread enthusiasm for the war in Iraq demonstrates either that (1) we aren't in a 4T, in which we would believe anything that our leaders tell us
Wrong. That's the regeneracy.

, or (2) we aren't in a 4T because too little has changed.
Wrong. I'm talking moods.

If we were in a genuine 4T war we'd have kids being drafted to serve in the war;
Sigh.

we'd have rationing of various forms;
Sigh.

we'd have higher taxes. We would be told to consume less so that our soldiers could have the equipment that they need to finish the job. We'd have more of our industry on a war footing.
Too much oxygen!

9/11 was a portent of a 4T, a time in which we Americans expected major changes in our lives. Then the President told us to "go shopping" -- not "enlist", "buy war bonds", "drive less", or "get work in war plants". We got tax cuts intended largely to enrich the rich. The Fed opened the floodgates of credit so that people could bid up real estate and go deeper into debt. War in Iraq became a method of enriching the war profiteers who paid handsomely into Dubya's campaign.

We will know that we are in a 4T when our Best and Brightest defer college educations to serve their country or when the debt-inflated bubble bursts.
NOT ABOUT POLITICS.







Post#445 at 07-14-2007 02:49 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Egypt

I wasn't able to do the child generation for most of those, so I left it out. I do leave plenty of generational hints, however. Any objections? Suggestions?

Whew! Maybe some shorter ones to follow, eh?







Post#446 at 07-14-2007 10:19 AM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Matt,

Just some quick thoughts. I don't understand what's going on in the
first few paragraphs. They all sound pretty much the same, with no
real distinctions. The massive peasant uprising sure sounds like a
crisis event. In 1901, it would be good to have an example that
illustrates generational nationalism. Sharp distinctions are needed
to make the case. 220 years of Egypt is a pretty big piece to bite
off, and might take too long to chew. (Yuk. Did I really say that?)

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#447 at 07-14-2007 01:04 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Matt,

Just one more thought. There's no reason why you have to solve every
problem on the first pass, especially since there are so many
different countries. It's perfectly OK to say, "More research is
needed to determine if this is a Crisis event or Recovery event" or
"I'm not sure about this" or "Either X or Y is a crisis war -- more
research is needed." Just put down what you know, and if you don't
know something, then it's ok to say you don't know that yet, and then
move on to another country. Things have a way of falling into place
by themselves over time, as the weeks and months pass.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#448 at 07-14-2007 01:21 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Personal sacrifice hasn't come yet. It DOES come with the territory of being in a Crisis, but I'm referring to a mood shift and a rapid change in dialogue. Methinks you are treating this as a political issue ^^ (but seriously, I do).
Mood shifts generally correspond to political shifts as the issues people care about change. 9/11 (outside the brief initial response) and the first couple years of the Iraq war didn't really seem to have changed the fundamental 3T mood, it just exacerbating it (we went into the "jittery stage of the 3T" as some posters have labeled it). Indeed, the reaction of people of different political stripes to the initial invasion of Iraq reminds me of how people of various political stripes reacted to WW1.

The 2002 election expressed the temporary mood shift following 9/11, but by the 2004 election the mood had slipped back to 3T-style bickering (and the Electoral College map wasn't that different from 2000). Then, in 2005 there was this shift in the public mood that expressed themselves in the results of the 2006 election. Economic issues seem to becoming more important then the pet issues of the Culture Wars. We have socially-conservative Evangelical Christians concerned about the environment and the economy suddenly coming out of the woodwork. Virginia elected to the Senate Jim Webb, a member of the Reagan Administration that now is an economic uber-populist. The Republican Party looks like it's splintering into Libertarian/Paleo-Con, Religious Right, and War Hawk factions. People have turned against the Iraq War with vengeance and now want out.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#449 at 07-14-2007 02:06 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Dear Matt,

Just some quick thoughts. I don't understand what's going on in the
first few paragraphs. They all sound pretty much the same, with no
real distinctions. The massive peasant uprising sure sounds like a
crisis event. In 1901, it would be good to have an example that
illustrates generational nationalism. Sharp distinctions are needed
to make the case. 220 years of Egypt is a pretty big piece to bite
off, and might take too long to chew. (Yuk. Did I really say that?)

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
OK I expected this to come up. Not surprisingly, the sources I had that focused on the early 19th century were exclusively political, and I made a number of guesses.

I stand by my dates in the early period, and I believe the wars in the Recovery were meant to strengthen the power of Ali so another invasion would not be possible. It appears that hubris took over by the Awakening, and it cost the Egyptians dearly.

Anyways, as for the dates of mid-cycle periods (starts of Awakenings and then Unravelings, alternating)

1831 is the beginning of the wars against the sultan
1849 is the death of Ibrahim (son of Ali)
1900 is when the autocratic Lord Cromer was replaced
1923 was Independence
1973 was Yom Kippur war
1990 is fuzzy

There really isn't any information for just when these start dates occurred (I would have to look at mood for that), so I had to go with events and my knowledge of cycle length. For example, it's clear that the 1910s were Awakening years, but the 1900s are not so clear, and there are only hints. Obviously it's not exact (but who's to say 1984 is the start of an Unraveling in America with certainty?), but I'd be surprised if I was more than 5 years off on any of them.







Post#450 at 07-14-2007 02:25 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Country Study: Egypt

Egypt

1786-1811: Rise of Muhammad Ali (Crisis)

From 1786 to 1791, the Ottoman Empire attempted to reassert their presence in Egypt, which at the time was under the control of Ibrahim Bey and Murad Bey. Following years of famine and plague, Egypt was devastated by the time Napoleon successfully invaded the country in 1798. However, rebellion spread throughout the country, and an Anglo-Ottoman invasion forced the French out in 1801. By 1805, Muhammad Ali was appointed governor by the Ottomans, where he consolidated his power in a series of wars until 1811, which climaxed with a mass assassination of rebel leaders.

1812-1830: Wars of Expansion (Recovery)

In the following years, Ali attempted to expand his influence throughout the region in a series of wars, with the likely intent of strengthening his power to prevent another invasion. The Ottoman Sultan, Mahmud II, had called for the return of Mecca to the Empire, launching the Ottoman-Saudi Wars, which ended in victory for the Ottomans in 1818. In 1820, Ali turned his attention to Eastern Libya and North Sudan, extending Egyptian rule. A massive (but short-lived) peasant rebellion broke out in 1824, and later the movement for Greek Independence, both of which were brutally put down by Ali in a no-nonsense Recovery era fashion.

1831-1849: Wars Against the Sultan (Awakening)

Ali had been preparing for war with the Ottoman Sultan for years in order to establish Egyptian independence, and in 1831, invaded Syria. Brilliant campaigns conducted by his son Ibrahim lead to Ottoman concessions, and by 1833, Ali ruled over a sizable empire. The revolts came quickly from all directions, and although suppressed, they inspired Sultan Mahmud II to exact revenge upon Ali, but his forces were quickly routed once again. However, hubris had been increasing since the beginning of the decade, and when Ibrahim’s forces approached Istanbul (the capital of the Ottoman Empire), European powers intervened. Egyptian forces were pushed back to their homeland and Ali was stripped of most of his territory, forcing a series of reforms that lasted throughout the 1840s. His son Ibrahim rose to power later in the decade, but he died in a matter of months and was replaced.

1850-1870: Modernization and Decay (Unraveling)

Prosperity throughout the 1860s under Ismail the Magnificient lead to a new set of reforms, as Ismail tried to establish a fully functioning, more independent Egypt. The reforms were not cheap, and high taxes, coupled with an end to prosperity, quickly lead to bankruptcy and miserable conditions throughout the country.

1871-1882: Urabi Revolt (Crisis)

Conditions were so bad – due in large part to the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 - that by 1875, Egypt was 100 million Pounds in debt. Ismail the Magnificient sold his shares on the canal to the British, making them the largest shareholder. However, the financial crisis was merely delayed, and in 1878, following British-made reforms and inquiries to fix the disaster, Ismail declared Egypt to be a part of Europe. However, in a bizarre sequence of events, he attempted to restore his original power, which lead to his removal as Khedive. Dual control by the French and British was established through the use of Ismail’s son, Tawfiq, but a military revolt led by Ahmed Urabi was determined to overthrow the Khedive. Obtaining a fatwa, or a religious decree, Urabi captured Cairo and surrounding provinces. The French withdrew from the conflict, and the British were left to devastate Alexandria. The decisive battle between the powerful rebels and the British was fought at Tall al Kabir in 1882, where Urabi’s forces were routed, the Khedive was reestablished, and the British were in control of the nation, which lasted until the Egyptian Revolution some 70 years later.

1883-1901?: Beginnings of British Rule (Recovery)

Fears of a renewed revolt were never played out, although British troops remained in the region. A period of harsh, autocratic rule ensued under Lord Cromer. However, the debt was paid off, and prosperity returned.

?1902-1923: Growth of Nationalism (Awakening)

After the turn of the century, growing nationalism among the younger generation in Egypt caused the two successive consuls to attempt to introduce reform to appease the increasingly angry population. However, the Nationalists refused to compromise. The outbreak of World War I tore the country apart, with the Ottoman Empire and the British on opposite sides. Egypt was severed from the Ottoman Empire by the British, who made the nation into a protectorate. However, opposition to the British only hardened, mass protests turned violent, creating the 1919 Revolution, in which tens of thousands of protesters battled their British rulers in the streets, leaving hundreds dead. In a significant move, between 150 and 300 Egyptian women took to the streets to protest British rule and restrictions against women, an event that marked the beginning of the introduction of women into the public sphere. Following these mass strikes, Egypt was declared to have nominal independence in 1923.

1923-1943: The Wafd and World War Two (Unraveling)

The Egyptian political system was still dominated by the British, although a King and political parties were established. The Liberal party, the Wafd, swept into power, and demanded more sovereignty. Reforms were enacted, but it did not sway the commitment to full independence among the masses. Wafd concessions to the British produced anti-government sentiment, and in 1928, the Muslim Brotherhood was founded as a religious and political movement whose goal was to purify the country. Wafd power declined, but World War Two provided an opportunity to restore their influence. However, deals with the British only showed the extent of British power while scandals and corruption were exposed among the Egyptian government.

1944-1953: Egyptian Revolution (Crisis)

The Wafdist government collapsed in 1944, and the masses became increasingly militant, supporting organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Young Egypt. After hopes for independence were once again dashed, riots broke out. Then, in 1948, Egypt witnessed the establishment of Israel, which was viewed as another crime in the long list of British imperialist tendencies. The poorly equipped and unprepared Arab masses (including Egypt) descended upon Israel. The Muslim Brotherhood was ordered to dissolve, but instead assassinated the Prime Minister, which caused thousands to be placed in concentration camps in retaliation. The war was a disastrous failure for Egypt, but it brought about the rise of Gamal Abdul Nasser, who then organized the Free Officers movement inside the army. In early 1952, battles broke out between Egyptian and British soldiers. The Free Officers movement attempted a coup against King Farouk, who could not effectively govern any longer and was forced to flee the country. A series of crises ended with Nasser asserting supreme authority. Egypt was declared a republic in 1953.

1954-1972: Arab Socialism (Recovery)

With a renewed confidence, Nasser made a famed deal with Czechoslovakia in which Egypt was sold instruments of war. Egypt then nationalized the Suez canal company, prompting an alliance of Israel, Britain, and France to invade. The alliance was able to achieve victory, but at an enormous political cost. The three nations were forced to withdraw from their gains due to international pressure, resulting in a political victory for Egypt. Several alliances with various members of the Arab world were attempted in order to establish a movement known as Arab Socialism. However, these attempts ended in failure. In 1967, Nasser initiated several steps that led to war with Israel. In six days, the war was over, Egypt was humiliated, and Israel was in full occupation of the Sinai region of Egypt. Nasser resigned, but a swell of support among the populace convinced him to change his mind. However, by the late 1960s, demonstrations against the government increased.

1973-1991?: Internal Strife and Reform (Awakening)

Nasser died in 1969 and was replaced by Anwar Sadat. An initially successful invasion was launched against Israel in 1973, but it was repulsed in an Israeli counterattack. However, the war was a political victory as it showed the Arabs could match Israel. Sadat’s popularity grew, and he was able enact several reforms. Israel withdrew from Sinai, and the Suez Canal was reopened. Political and economic freedom was encouraged, and it was initially successful in bringing about wealth to investors, but fears of foreign influence began to dominate the scene. In 1977, riots erupted throughout the country – the biggest since 1919 – and the military was called out on to the streets as protesters called for economic equality. Clashes killed 800 people and wounded thousands. Relations with Israel began to change, and in the following year, the Camp David Accords produced an historic Egyptian-Israeli treaty. Sadat’s popularity declined as he conducted measures against opposition such as the Muslim Brotherhood. He was assassinated by Islamic extremists in 1981 and was replaced by Hosni Mubarak.

?1992-Present: Economic Liberalization (Unraveling)
Mubarak has initiated several forms of economic liberalization since the beginning of his rule.

Note: Many of the mid-cycle turning dates are little more than educated guesses which usually correspond with major events while staying within in typical turning boundaries. A ? mark indicates that there is no empirical evidence to support that date. The early 20th century Egyptian Awakening is clearly shown in the 1910s, but there are only hints of a growth of nationalism in the 1900s decade, which doesn't necessarily fall into a typical Awakening period. The late 20th century Awakening/Unraveling border is very unclear.

In addition, the pre-Urabi revolt mid-cycle period has little proof in the form of societal transformation, due to the nearly exclusive political focus. The mid-cycle period is merely my interpretation of political events.
Last edited by Matt1989; 12-01-2007 at 04:40 PM.
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