Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

And how, saecularly speaking, is Mexico structurally different than the U.S.?

Mexico is a more traditionalist country. Unlike America which has always attracted immigrants and thus has always been hetrogenious by the standards of a given era, Mexico is essentially an indigenous peasent culture ruled by a privledged elite in each saeculium. Before 1810 obtaining title to Mexican land from the Spanish crown put one in the elite. After independence, not much changed until the time of the Juarez awakening in the 1860's. The values of the awakening such as restoring the dignity of the indian peoples by giving them title to the land they worked did not see long term outer world reality until after the 1910 revolution. Historicaly, Mexico and the US couldn't be much more different than they are in terms of issues like traditionalism vs. modernity.

Considering you only have three Crises to use as data points, I can't agree with your conclusion. This is especially true considering the fact that there are plenty of countries that have had 100-year Crisis to Crisis periods and 60-year ones side-by side.

But Mexico hasn't been one of them, at least not yet.

Originally Posted by 1990

Matt,

I await your "massive Crisis thing" (how ominous), and also some deeper discussion about Mexico. I have been looking into Cuba whenever possible and will post something within the week.

OK great! I'm nearly finished, but it's a slow, long, process.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Mexico is a more traditionalist country. Unlike America which has always attracted immigrants and thus has always been hetrogenious by the standards of a given era, Mexico is essentially an indigenous peasent culture ruled by a privledged elite in each saeculium. Before 1810 obtaining title to Mexican land from the Spanish crown put one in the elite. After independence, not much changed until the time of the Juarez awakening in the 1860's. The values of the awakening such as restoring the dignity of the indian peoples by giving them title to the land they worked did not see long term outer world reality until after the 1910 revolution. Historicaly, Mexico and the US couldn't be much more different than they are in terms of issues like traditionalism vs. modernity.


But Mexico hasn't been one of them, at least not yet.

??? Either I missed something, or you didn't explain how this would affect the saeculum.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

??? Either I missed something, or you didn't explain how this would affect the saeculum.

Traditionalst cultures tend to usually move slower than modern ones. The controlling elite resists change as long as possible and ideas move more slowly. There are always execeptions, but not many.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Traditionalst cultures tend to usually move slower than modern ones. The controlling elite resists change as long as possible and ideas move more slowly.

OK...

Turnings are pushed by generational change and are a product of the MASSES. From a purely generational standpoint, it is impossible that the controlling elite could slow the development.

There are always execeptions, but not many.

The fact that there are a fair amount of exceptions (and there are PLENTY) indicates that there is nothing to it. The generational structure has remained robust since the beginning of civilization. What varies are the mid-cycle periods. That is due to the fact that it takes outside influences in conjunction with generational constellations to produce a Crisis.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

The generational structure has remained robust since the beginning of civilization. What varies are the mid-cycle periods. That is due to the fact that it takes outside influences in conjunction with generational constellations to produce a Crisis.

Why did the saeculiums before the year 1800 tend to last about a century?
More to the point, why does the then current incantation of Mexico tend to 'blow up' every 100 years? All of this may be coming to a head in a few years.

When I was in the sixth grade, which would be the 1972-73 school year, our class did a major project on Mexico. Our textbooks, which were from the sixties, were paeans of praise for how far Mexico had come in just a few decades. One book even mentioned that the 1968 summer olympics were to be held in Mexico City and that all the world would celebrate Mexico's progress and ability to host a world class event.

If you will notice I wrote the above in the future tense, not only because the book at the time was predicting the general feel of what was then a future event, but also because the books' prediction of unclouded international goodwill turned out to be wrong. Not only was the western world in the early stages of the boom awakening in 1968, but Mexico 'era of good feelings' that the revolution of 1910 had brought about that our textbooks were so proud of had already passed by then.

The downward spiral that had set into place in Mexico by 1968 is still with them. They are again prepaired to 'blow up' as the tenth year of a new century approaches. And this time their 4T is very likely to get caught up with ours. Some would say that thanks to NAFTA it may be impossible for the US to get through its 4T without dealing in a less than sanguine manner with Mexico.

So, why does Mexico 'blow up'' every 100 years? I still suspect that the traditionalism of Mexican culture leads to an incomplete conclusion of social moments within their culture. Futhermore, the reason for this incomplete conclusion is that they have never really thrown off their colonial legacy of elite rule. After all, the revolution of 1910 that my textbooks praised decades ago is the closest they have come to a true revolution, yet the political elite empowered set up a party, the PRI, that ran the country like a large hacenda for 70 years before being, at least temporaraily, dislodged.

I have no idea why this is unless it could be inheritance patterns - but the long saeculum seems to be an Agricultural Age thing, and a lot of Latin America is basically still there for all the veneer of urbanization and industrialization.

By inheritance patterns I mean that if someone has to wait for his father to die before coming into power, the generational turnover might be slowed down. Has anybody looked at that?

On the other hand, take Renaissance England. From Bosworth Field in 1485, when Henry VII took the throne, to Spain's first attack on young Elizabeth in 1559, was 74 years and that is not startlingly long. (It just feels like it, considering how much upheaval and turmoil was stuffed into that 3/4 of a century.)

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Why did the saeculiums before the year 1800 tend to last about a century?

Matt is using Xenakis's model and Xenakis rejects the 100-year turnings. I disagree with that, of course, since my research into medieval, Roman, and ancient Greek saeculae agrees with Sean Love's (Zarathustra) and Mike Alexander's multi-modal saeculum model.

Originally Posted by Odin

Matt is using Xenakis's model and Xenakis rejects the 100-year turnings. I disagree with that, of course, since my research into medieval, Roman, and ancient Greek saeculae agrees with Sean Love's (Zarathustra) and Mike Alexander's multi-modal saeculum model.

Thanks for the reminder. I keep in mind that the word 'saeculium' means century, it's easy to take it for granted that everyone else does..

I'll respond in a day or two when I have some time.

Well, I’ve finally finished the list of Crises for about 100 countries, which one can find in the following post. This took a couple months, and was made easier by the research done through the Map Project. Unfortunately for me, I had to go back through everything, so the scope of the research is pretty massive. I’d like to make a few notes:

Setting: In order to finish this in a reasonable amount of time, I had to limit myself to the post-American Revolution period. The research I did often went deeper into the past, but the list only contains Crises after 1781.

Inconsistencies: A ton. Naming inconsistencies are all over the place. There is probably something out of order. Date inconsistencies are really frustrating. It’s very difficult to locate the catalyst in a short amount of time, and most of them were gut calls, i.e. probably a little off. Worse still is the tendency to move from location to location inside a country – which is probably worst in Indonesia. In addition, I separated Nigeria when I saw the opportunity, but failed to do the same for countless other countries.

Missing Information: Two tons. Not every country is listed. I tried to get the major ones and some minor ones too. There are few more I would like to figure out. For some countries I could only figure out the 20th century crisis. I didn’t include more information because I just didn’t know. There is no information on merging and diverging timelines.

Errors: Lots. Probably. These analyses were quite short. I think I got most of them, but I’m sure there are a number of errors.

Despite the numerous flaws, I hope you can forgive me. This was a huge project, and it is still a work in progress. I wanted to get this out there as fast as possible so I could hear some constructive criticism, fix some errors, and get back to the in-depth country studies. As I work along that path, this list will certainly undergo some changes.

Thank you! The first date refers to the start of the "Catastrophe" part of the Crisis, while the latter refers to the Climax.

Matt

Afghanistan -- First Anglo-Afghan War -- 1839-1842
Afghanistan -- Various Conflicts and Reforms -- 1919-1929
Afghanistan -- Soviet Invasion + Civil War -- 1978-1992
Algeria -- 1871 Revolt -- 1866-1871
Algeria -- Algerian War of Independence --1954-1962
Angola -- Portuguese Expansion -- ?1900-1910
Angola -- Independence + Civil War -- 1961-1989
Argentina -- Argentinean War of Independence -- 1810-1817
Argentina -- War of the Triple Alliance -- 1864-1870
Argentina -- Dirty War -- 1973-1983
Armenia -- Armenian Genocide -- 1908-1917
Australia -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Austria -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1792-1814
Austria -- Austro-Prussian War -- 1864-1866
Austria -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Bangladesh -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
Bangladesh -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
Belarus -- Belarus National Republic -- 1917-1919
Benin -- Ethnic Strife + Coups + Baifran War -- 1960-1972
Bolivia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Bolivia -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
Bolivia -- Revolutionary Nationalist Movement -- 1952-1980
Bosnia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Bosnia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Botswana -- Mfecane -- 1815-1835
Botswana -- Second Boer War -- 1899-1902
Brazil -- Brazilian War of Independence -- 1821-1825
Brazil -- Establishment of Old Republic -- 1889-1898
Brazil -- Military Takeover -- 1964-1974
Burkina Faso -- Mossi Resistance/Samori Ture -- 1894-1898
Burundi -- European Arrival -- 1905-1914
Burundi -- Civil War -- 1987-1993
Cambodia -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
Cambodia -- Civil War -- 1965-1975
Cameroon -- Fulani Conquest -- 180x-18xx
Cameroon – European Arrival – 187x-18xx
Cameroon -- UPC Revolt -- 1955-1960
Chad -- Rabih az-Zubayr -- 1890-1900
Chile -- Chilean War of Independence -- 1810-1825
Chile -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
Chile -- Pinochet Rule -- 1973-1978
China -- Taiping Rebellion -- 1851-1864
China -- Civil War + World War Two -- 1932-1949
Colombia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Colombia -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
Colombia -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
Congo -- Civil War -- 1997-1999
Costa Rica -- Civil War -- 1944-1948
Côte d'Ivoire -- Samori Ture -- 1887-1898
Croatia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Croatia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Cuba -- Ten Years War -- 1868-1878
Cuba -- Cuban Revolution -- 1956-1959
Democratic Republic of the Congo -- Congo Free State -- 1885-1908
Democratic Republic of the Congo -- Congo Wars -- 1995-2002
Ecuador -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Ecuador -- Liberal Takeover + Civil War -- 1895-1911 (possibly aborted civil war)
Ecuador -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1960-1972
Egypt -- Rise of Muhammad Ali -- 1786-1811
Egypt -- Urabi Revolt -- 1870-1882
Egypt -- Egyptian Revolution -- 1944-1953
England -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1793-1802
England -- American Civil War -- 1857-1865
England -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Estonia -- War of Independence -- 1917-1920
Ethiopia -- First Italian-Ethiopian War -- 1889-1896
Ethiopia -- Red Terror + Various Wars and Instability -- 1974-1991
El Salvador -- La Matanza -- 1927-1932
El Salvador -- Salvadoran Civil War -- 1980-1992
Eritrea -- First Italian-Ethiopian War -- 1889-1896
Eritrea -- War of Independence -- 1961-1988
Finland -- Independence + Civil War -- 1917-1918
France -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1789-1814
France -- Franco-Prussian War -- 1870-1871
France -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Germany -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1793-1814
Germany -- Franco-Prussian War -- 1864-1871
Germany -- World War Two -- 1929-1944
Georgia -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Ghana -- Resistance to British -- ?1887-1902
Greece -- War of Independence -- 1821-1829
Greece -- WWI + Greco-Turkish War -- 1912-1921
Guatemala -- Civil War -- 1966-1983
Guinea-- Samori Ture -- 1882-1898
Guinea-Bissau -- War of Independence -- 1963-1974
Haiti -- Haitian Revolution -- 1791-1804
Haiti -- 1915 Coup + Rebellion -- 1911-1934
Honduras -- Instability -- 1919-1924
Honduras -- Football War + Coups etc. -- 1969-1983
India -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
India -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
Indonesia -- Java War -- 1825-1830
Indonesia -- Aceh War -- 1883-1904
Indonesia -- Coups + Genocide -- 1955-1966
Iran -- Iranian-Russian War -- 1801-1813
Iran -- Constitutional Revolution -- 1906-1909
Iran -- Iran-Iraq War -- 1978-1988
Iraq -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire + Great Iraqi Revolution-- 1908-1920
Iraq -- Iran-Iraq War -- 1980-1988
Ireland -- Irish Rebellion of 1798 -- 1793-1798
Ireland -- Potato Famine -- 1845-1849
Ireland -- Revolution + Civil War -- 1913-1924
Israel -- Arab-Israeli War -- 1947-1949
Italy -- Wars of Unification -- 1859-1870
Italy -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Japan -- Meiji Restoration -- 1852-1868
Japan -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
Jordan -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Kazakhstan -- Alash Orda -- 1916-1920
Kenya -- Mau Mau Uprising -- 1952-1959
Kosovo -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Kosovo -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Kyrgyzstan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Latvia -- Wars of Independence + Russian Civil War -- 1917-1922
Laos -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
Laos -- Civil War -- 1965-1975
Lebanon -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Lebanon -- Civil War -- 1977-1982
Liberia -- Civil Wars -- 1989-2003
Libya/Tunisia -- Italian Turkish War -- 1911-1912
Lithuania -- Wars of Independence -- 1917-1920
Madagascar -- Wars Against French -- 1895-1896
Madagascar -- Malagasy Uprising -- 1947-1948
Malaysia -- Larut + Klang Wars + Various -- 1861-1874
Malaysia -- World War Two -- 1941-1945
Mali -- Samori Ture -- 1882-1898
Mauritania -- Saharan War + 1989 Events -- 1976-1989
Mexico -- War of Independence -- 1810-1821
Mexico -- Mexican Revolution -- 1910-1921
Morocco -- Rif War -- 1919-1926
Mongolia -- Independence Era -- 1911-1921
Montenegro -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Montenegro -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Mozambique -- Independence + Civil War -- 1964-1988
Myanmar -- Civil War -- 1948-1958
Nepal -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
Nepal -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
New Zealand -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Nicaragua -- Sandinista National Liberation Front -- 1972-1990
Niger -- Resistance to French -- 189x-191x
(Northern) Nigeria -- Sokoto Caliphate -- 1804-1808
(Southern) Nigeria -- Yoruba Wars -- 1817-183x
Nigeria -- Resistance to French? -- 189x-191x
Nigeria -- Baifran War -- 1966-1970
North Korea -- Grand Prince Reforms? -- 1864-1873
North Korea -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
Pakistan -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
Pakistan -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
Panama -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Panama -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
Panama -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
Paraguay -- War of the Triple Alliance -- 1864-1870
Paraguay -- Chaco War -- 1932-1935
Peru -- Peruvian War of Independence -- 1812-1824
Peru -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
Peru -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1968-1985
Philippines -- Philippine Revolution -- 1896-1898
Philippines -- World War Two -- 1941-1945
Poland -- January Uprising -- 1863-1864
Poland -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Russia -- Crimean War + Emancipation -- 1853-1856
Russia -- WWI + Bolshevik Revolution + Civil War -- 1915-1920
Rwanda -- Civil War -- 1990-1994
Saudi Arabia -- Ottoman-Saudi War -- 1801-1818
Saudi Arabia -- Ibn Saud Conquests -- 1902-1925
Serbia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Serbia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Sierra Leone -- Civil War -- 1991-2002
Singapore -- World War Two -- 1942-1945
Slovenia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
Slovenia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
Somalia -- Dervish Resistance -- 1900-1920
Somalia -- Civil War -- 1974-1994
South Africa -- Mfecane -- 1815-1835
South Africa -- Second Boer War -- 1899-1902
South Africa -- Apartheid -- 1948-1960
South Korea -- Grand Prince Reforms? -- 1864-1873
South Korea -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
Spain -- Peninsular War -- 1793-1814
Spain -- Spanish Republic -- 1868-1874
Spain -- Civil War -- 1936-1939
Sudan -- Mahdist War -- 1881-1889
Sudan -- Civil War -- 1983-Present
Suriname -- 1980 Coups + Rebellion -- 1980-1992
Syria -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Syria -- Lebanon War -- 1977-1982
Tajikistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1920
Tajikistan -- Civil War -- 1992-1997
Tanzania -- Civil War + Invasion -- 1886-1896
Tanzania -- Amin + Bush War -- 1966-1986
Thailand -- World War Two -- 1932-1945
Turkey -- Crimean War -- 1853-1856
Turkey -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
Turkmenistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Uganda -- Civil War + Invasion -- 1886-1896
Uganda -- Amin + Bush War -- 1966-1986
USA -- Revolutionary War -- 1773-1781
USA -- Civil War -- 1856-1865
USA -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
Uruguay -- Uruguayan War of Independence -- 1811-1825
Uruguay -- José Batlle y Ordóñez? -- 1903-1915
Uruguay -- Military Government -- 1959-1980
Uzbekistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
Venezuela -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
Venezuela -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
Venezuela -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
Vietnam -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
Vietnam -- Vietnam War -- 1965-1975
Zimbabwe -- Ndebele Invasion/Mfecane Fallout -- 1815-1835
Zimbabwe -- Mtabeleland Wars -- 1893-1897
Zimbabwe -- Rhodesian Bush War -- 1964-1979

Thailand and Myanmar have to rank as the most puzzling. I could find a Crisis in the 1760s, but not one in the 1800s.

It's possible that Singapore, with its mass population changes occurring before 1900, was all over the place during the 19th century.

Map Changes: Surprisingly none. Looks like we did well!

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Why did the saeculiums before the year 1800 tend to last about a century?
More to the point, why does the then current incantation of Mexico tend to 'blow up' every 100 years?

I don't see how you can take two saeculums and deduce a set of rules. All I can figure out is that some mid-cycle periods are short and others are long. I can't pinpoint a single reason why, and anyone who tries to do just that will certainly end up failing.

My problem is that some people look at just a couple data points and come to conclusions so quickly. If there are exceptions in a seemingly normal saeculum, then you have a problem. There are plenty.

Originally Posted by Odin

Matt is using Xenakis's model and Xenakis rejects the 100-year turnings. I disagree with that, of course, since my research into medieval, Roman, and ancient Greek saeculae agrees with Sean Love's (Zarathustra) and Mike Alexander's multi-modal saeculum model.

Xenakis's model is my primary influence, but what I do is based on my interpretation of his model and what I see.

I assume you mean a 100-year saeculum, which is possible, but unlikely. I treat a Turning as a ~20 year event, never going outside the 15-25 range - except for the Crisis, which is highly variable. I treat the Crisis as a separate event, one that runs its course (once begun) based on a multitude of factors - not just generational shifts.

I'd be interested to see your research into "medieval, Roman, and ancient Greek saeculae," particularly how the first part of the Persian War and the Second Peloponnesian War can be explained.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

I assume you mean a 100-year saeculum, which is possible, but unlikely. I treat a Turning as a ~20 year event, never going outside the 15-25 range - except for the Crisis, which is highly variable. I treat the Crisis as a separate event, one that runs its course (once begun) based on a multitude of factors - not just generational shifts.

Looking at your (excellent) list, the crisis wars are highly variable. They can go on and on (like in Bolivia, Guatemala, and the Aceh War) or fizzle in a year. But is the actual 4T era this unpredictable? I can't see why a Crisis era would be 1 or 2 years. Those major institutional overhauls would not be completed so quickly. No, I think all turnings should be, give or take, around the 20-year mark, even if the peak of energy is a shorter period (the peak of fury the last 2T was pretty much the year of 1968, but the 2T went on through the 1970s and into the '80s). I mean, America was at peacetime between 1929 and 1941, but you would never suggest that wasn't a 4T.

If you look at all these countries with brief crisis wars, I'm sure you could find earlier catalysts (or, in rare cases when the war was the catalyst, later climaxes).

Great job! Only one thing I'd change. Under England where it says Civil War, that could be confusing because England didn't have a civil war around 1860. I'd either add "American Civil War" with a footnote or find another tag.

Just my $0.02,

Pat, your Beta Reader.

Originally Posted by 1990

Looking at your (excellent) list, the crisis wars are highly variable. They can go on and on (like in Bolivia, Guatemala, and the Aceh War) or fizzle in a year.

Yes, but fizzle is the wrong word. There is usually an explosive climax.

But is the actual 4T era this unpredictable? I can't see why a Crisis era would be 1 or 2 years. Those major institutional overhauls would not be completed so quickly.

You're probably right on that last point. I think that some major institutional overhauls can come after the climax or in the early Recovery. They certainly come as a result of the Crisis but the time doesn't allow some changes to be pushed through. I suppose you can call a Crisis whatever you want, but for generational purposes, the institutional changes that aren't coupled with Crisis mood, but are a result of that mood probably occurs during the Recovery.

No, I think all turnings should be, give or take, around the 20-year mark, even if the peak of energy is a shorter period (the peak of fury the last 2T was pretty much the year of 1968, but the 2T went on through the 1970s and into the '80s). I mean, America was at peacetime between 1929 and 1941, but you would never suggest that wasn't a 4T.

Eh, you could go with 1974, but that's beside the point. The Awakening produced a Nomad generation until the very end. On the other hand, a Prophet generation would be produced following the climax.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Great job! Only one thing I'd change. Under England where it says Civil War, that could be confusing because England didn't have a civil war around 1860. I'd either add "American Civil War" with a footnote or find another tag.

Just my $0.02,

Pat, your Beta Reader.

Thank you!

1990, one more thing.

The first date refers to the Catastrophe phase, so the Crisis mood can come earlier.

1990,

How are you doing with Cuba? What did you ID as the 19th century Crisis?

And Mexico?

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

1990,

How are you doing with Cuba? What did you ID as the 19th century Crisis?

And Mexico?

With both Cuba and Mexico, I have hit roadblocks. Specifically, with Cuba I found the last 4T (not the 1950s one, before that) very easily -- the Ten Years' War being the core of an 1870s 4T. But after the Revolution in 1959, there is so little information available. How am I to identify a 2T in the 1990s if Castro has kept such tight control of the media? Damned Commies.

As for Mexico, the wrinkle about turning length has really f'd things up. Either turnings were longer (sometimes almost 30 years) before the Revolution, or they were equal length to modern turnings, but the Porfiriato was an uber-uber-long 3T. Neither option is particularly appealing, but if the latter case is true, then one has to ask: why has Mexico twice in a row had doubly-long 3Ts?

Originally Posted by 1990

With both Cuba and Mexico, I have hit roadblocks. Specifically, with Cuba I found the last 4T (not the 1950s one, before that) very easily -- the Ten Years' War being the core of an 1870s 4T.

There were two contenders for the late 19th century 4T. The Ten Years War and the Cuban War of Independence. Both catastrophes decimated the island. I forget why I chose the former, but I'm glad to see that you came to the same conclusion.

But after the Revolution in 1959, there is so little information available. How am I to identify a 2T in the 1990s if Castro has kept such tight control of the media? Damned Commies.

I know there were some Revolutionary activities in the 1990s. There should be enough information in books or online. I'll help out:

http://www.workers.org/2007/world/lavender-red-106/
http://www.thecajm.org/jewish_community_1990s.html (download at bottom of page)
http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/FE296
http://www.sigloxxi.org/Archivo/younger.htm

HTH

As for Mexico, the wrinkle about turning length has really f'd things up. Either turnings were longer (sometimes almost 30 years) before the Revolution, or they were equal length to modern turnings, but the Porfiriato was an uber-uber-long 3T. Neither option is particularly appealing, but if the latter case is true, then one has to ask: why has Mexico twice in a row had doubly-long 3Ts?

Post-Unraveling followed by a 5T. See if it works.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

There were two contenders for the late 19th century 4T. The Ten Years War and the Cuban War of Independence. Both catastrophes decimated the island. I forget why I chose the former, but I'm glad to see that you came to the same conclusion.



I know there were some Revolutionary activities in the 1990s. There should be enough information in books or online. I'll help out:

http://www.workers.org/2007/world/lavender-red-106/
http://www.thecajm.org/jewish_community_1990s.html (download at bottom of page)
http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/FE296
http://www.sigloxxi.org/Archivo/younger.htm

HTH

Thanks so much! Given this timeframe (especially the student protests in 1999), I could see the Elian Gonzalez controversy as part of a 2T climax or resolution. I was without doubt that Cuba is early 3T, as I have been reading about ever-harsher debates and divisions within the Communist Party about how to deal with things sans Fidel. But the 2T evidence was well-hidden, thanks to the society being so closed. (I expect it would be hard to find a 2T in North Korea for the same reason...and I know there is only sparse evidence of any 2T in Russia during the 20th century.)

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Post-Unraveling followed by a 5T. See if it works.

I will. This sounds plausible. And if so, it is worth asking why Mexico is so prone to post-Unravelings and delayed Crises. It also suggests that an eventual 4T in this country will be ugly, ugly, ugly.