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Thread: Official 'Map Project' Thread - Page 21







Post#501 at 08-12-2007 03:01 AM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
it is worth asking why Mexico is so prone to post-Unravelings and delayed Crises. It also suggests that an eventual 4T in this country will be ugly, ugly, ugly.
There's almost no way for the US to get through the coming 4t without Mexico's approaching 4t intertwining with it. This has never happened before.

And yes, it will be ugly along the way.







Post#502 at 08-12-2007 10:19 AM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
There's almost no way for the US to get through the coming 4t without Mexico's approaching 4t intertwining with it. This has never happened before.

And yes, it will be ugly along the way.
Then maybe we'll remember that we have something in common with Mexico - a border - and stop pretending Mexico is some faraway third-world nation.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

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Post#503 at 08-12-2007 12:23 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
Thanks so much! Given this timeframe (especially the student protests in 1999), I could see the Elian Gonzalez controversy as part of a 2T climax or resolution. I was without doubt that Cuba is early 3T, as I have been reading about ever-harsher debates and divisions within the Communist Party about how to deal with things sans Fidel. But the 2T evidence was well-hidden, thanks to the society being so closed. (I expect it would be hard to find a 2T in North Korea for the same reason...and I know there is only sparse evidence of any 2T in Russia during the 20th century.)
It will be difficult to pick out a specific end-date. Protests can also happen in 3Ts (see Venezuela), but its a bit different since they are mostly led by Nomads.

I will. This sounds plausible. And if so, it is worth asking why Mexico is so prone to post-Unravelings and delayed Crises. It also suggests that an eventual 4T in this country will be ugly, ugly, ugly.
John X. seems to think that part of the reason this time is oil money. Perhaps. You have to understand though, that two saeculums aren't enough to ask "Why does this happen in Mexico?"
Last edited by Matt1989; 09-16-2007 at 07:07 PM.







Post#504 at 08-12-2007 01:58 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
It will be difficult to pick out a specific end-date. Protests can also happen in 3Ts (see Venezuela), but its a bit different since they are mostly lead by Nomads.
I am sure that Cuba is now 3T, and was essentially 2T in the 1990s and presumably the late 1980s at least. But closed societies - especially dictatorships and Communist countries - tend to suppress 2Ts very well (in the short run) and thus they are less readily evident than in a democracy.



Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
John X. seems to think that part of the reason this time is oil money. Perhaps. You have to understand though, that two saeculums aren't enough to ask "Why does this happen in Mexico?"
True, but we're talking two saecula in a row. Perhaps the second time was due to oil money, as well as the major economic benefits of NAFTA and emigration to the U.S. (and its ensuing remittances), but shouldn't it be kinda hard to f*** up the saeculum? And twice in a row???
My Turning-based Map of the World

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Post#505 at 08-12-2007 04:51 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
True, but we're talking two saecula in a row. Perhaps the second time was due to oil money, as well as the major economic benefits of NAFTA and emigration to the U.S. (and its ensuing remittances), but shouldn't it be kinda hard to f*** up the saeculum? And twice in a row???
I don't think the saeculum can be messed up pretty easily when we hone in on the mid-cycle period. But the Crisis is different, since it takes a pretty specific reaction to a variety of events to produce it.

Long saeculums aren't so rare (look at my list)... and it only happened twice.







Post#506 at 08-12-2007 05:54 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Rick,

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
> Thanks for the reminder. I keep in mind that the word 'saeculium'
> means century, it's easy to take it for granted that everyone else
> does..
Here's an online definition:

Quote Originally Posted by Wikipedia
> A saeculum is a length of time roughly equal to the potential
> lifetime of a person or the equivalent of the complete renewal of
> a human population. The term was first used by the Etruscans.
> Originally it meant the period of time from the moment that
> something happened (for example the founding of a city) until the
> point in time that all people who had lived at the first moment
> had died. At that point a new saeculum would start. According to
> legend, the gods had accorded a certain amount of saecula to every
> people or civilization, the Etruscans themselves for example had
> been given ten saecula.

> By the second century BC, Roman historians were using the saeculum
> to periodize their chronicles and track wars. At the time of the
> reign of emperor Augustus, the Romans decided that a saeculum was
> 110 years. In 17 BC Caesar Augustus organised Ludi saeculares
> ('century-games') for the first time to celebrate the 'fifth
> saeculum of Rome'. Later emperors like Claudius and Septimius
> Severus have celebrated the passing of saecula with games at
> irregular intervals. In 248, Philip the Arab combined Ludi
> saeculares with the 1000th anniversary of the founding of Rome 'ab
> urbe condita'. The new millennium that Rome entered was called the
> Saeculum Novum, a term that got a metaphysical connotation in
> Christianity, referring to the worldy age (hence 'secular').

> A saeculum isn't normally used for a fixed amount of time, in
> common usage it stands for about 90 years. It can be divided into
> four "seasons" of approximately 22 years each; these seasons
> represent youth, rising adulthood, midlife, and old age.
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saeculum
Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#507 at 08-12-2007 05:55 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Matt,

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
> Crisis War List
> Afghanistan -- First Anglo-Afghan War -- 1839-1842
> Afghanistan -- Various Conflicts and Reforms -- 1919-1929
> Algeria -- 1871 Revolt -- 1866-1871
> Algeria -- Algerian War of Independence --1954-1962
> Angola -- Portuguese Expansion -- ?1900-1910
> Angola -- Independence + Civil War -- 1961-1989
> Argentina -- Argentinean War of Independence -- 1810-1817
> Argentina -- War of the Triple Alliance -- 1864-1870
> Argentina -- Dirty War -- 1973-1983
> Armenia -- Armenian Genocide -- 1908-1917
> Australia -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Austria -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1792-1814
> Austria -- Austro-Prussian War -- 1864-1866
> Austria -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Bangladesh -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
> Bangladesh -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
> Belarus -- Belarus National Republic -- 1917-1919
> Benin -- Ethnic Strife + Coups + Baifran War -- 1960-1972
> Bolivia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
> Bolivia -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
> Bolivia -- Revolutionary Nationalist Movement -- 1952-1980
> Bosnia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
> Bosnia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
> Botswana -- Mfecane -- 1815-1835
> Botswana -- Second Boer War -- 1899-1902
> Brazil -- Brazilian War of Independence -- 1821-1825
> Brazil -- Establishment of Old Republic -- 1889-1898
> Brazil -- Military Takeover -- 1964-1974
> Burkina Faso -- Mossi Resistance/Samori Ture -- 1894-1898
> Burundi -- European Arrival -- 1905-1914
> Burundi -- Civil War -- 1987-1993
> Cambodia -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
> Cambodia -- Civil War -- 1965-1975
> Cameroon -- Fulani Conquest -- 180x-18xx
> Cameroon – European Arrival – 187x-18xx
> Cameroon -- UPC Revolt -- 1955-1960
> Chad -- Rabih az-Zubayr -- 1890-1900
> Chile -- Chilean War of Independence -- 1810-1825
> Chile -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
> Chile -- Pinochet Rule -- 1973-1978
> China -- Taiping Rebellion -- 1851-1864
> China -- Civil War + World War Two -- 1932-1949
> Colombia -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
> Colombia -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
> Colombia -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
> Congo -- Civil War -- 1997-1999
> Costa Rica -- Civil War -- 1944-1948
> Côte d'Ivoire -- Samori Ture -- 1887-1898
> Croatia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
> Croatia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
> Cuba -- Ten Years War -- 1868-1878
> Cuba -- Cuban Revolution -- 1956-1959
> Democratic Republic of the Congo -- Congo Free State -- 1885-1908
> Democratic Republic of the Congo -- Congo Wars -- 1995-2002
> Ecuador -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
> Ecuador -- Liberal Takeover + Civil War -- 1895-1911 (possibly aborted civil war)
> Ecuador -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1960-1972
> Egypt -- Rise of Muhammad Ali -- 1786-1811
> Egypt -- Urabi Revolt -- 1870-1882
> Egypt -- Egyptian Revolution -- 1944-1953
> England -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1793-1802
> England -- American Civil War -- 1857-1865
> England -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Estonia -- War of Independence -- 1917-1920
> Ethiopia -- First Italian-Ethiopian War -- 1889-1896
> Ethiopia -- Red Terror + Various Wars and Instability -- 1974-1991
> El Salvador -- La Matanza -- 1927-1932
> El Salvador -- Salvadoran Civil War -- 1980-1992
> Eritrea -- First Italian-Ethiopian War -- 1889-1896
> Eritrea -- War of Independence -- 1961-1988
> Finland -- Independence + Civil War -- 1917-1918
> France -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1789-1814
> France -- Franco-Prussian War -- 1870-1871
> France -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Germany -- French Revolution + Napoleonic Wars -- 1793-1814
> Germany -- Franco-Prussian War -- 1864-1871
> Germany -- World War Two -- 1929-1944
> Georgia -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
> Ghana -- Resistance to British -- ?1887-1902
> Guatemala -- Civil War -- 1966-1983
> Guinea-- Samori Ture -- 1882-1898
> Guinea-Bissau -- War of Independence -- 1963-1974
> Haiti -- Haitian Revolution -- 1791-1804
> Haiti -- 1915 Coup + Rebellion -- 1911-1934
> Honduras -- Instability -- 1919-1924
> Honduras -- Football War + Coups etc. -- 1969-1983
> India -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
> India -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
> Indonesia -- Java War -- 1825-1830
> Indonesia -- Aceh War -- 1883-1904
> Indonesia -- Coups + Genocide -- 1955-1966
> Iran -- Iranian-Russian War -- 1801-1813
> Iran -- Constitutional Revolution -- 1906-1909
> Iran -- Iran-Iraqi War -- 1979-1988
> Iraq -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire + Great Iraqi Revolution-- 1908-1920
> Iraq -- Iran-Iraq War -- 1980-1988
> Ireland -- Irish Rebellion of 1798 -- 1793-1798
> Ireland -- Potato Famine -- 1845-1849
> Ireland -- Revolution + Civil War -- 1913-1924
> Israel -- Arab-Israeli War -- 1947-1949
> Italy -- Wars of Unification -- 1859-1870
> Italy -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Japan -- Meiji Restoration -- 1852-1868
> Japan -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
> Jordan -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
> Kazakhstan -- Alash Orda -- 1916-1920
> Kenya -- Mau Mau Uprising -- 1952-1959
> Kosovo -- World War One -- 1912-1918
> Kosovo -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
> Kyrgyzstan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
> Latvia -- Wars of Independence + Russian Civil War -- 1917-1922
> Laos -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
> Laos -- Civil War -- 1965-1975
> Lebanon -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
> Lebanon -- Civil War -- 1977-1982
> Liberia -- Civil Wars -- 1989-2003
> Libya/Tunisia -- Italian Turkish War -- 1911-1912
> Lithuania -- Wars of Independence -- 1917-1920
> Madagascar -- Wars Against French -- 1895-1896
> Madagascar -- Malagasy Uprising -- 1947-1948
> Malaysia -- Larut + Klang Wars + Various -- 1861-1874
> Malaysia -- World War Two -- 1941-1945
> Mali -- Samori Ture -- 1882-1898
> Mauritania -- Saharan War + 1989 Events -- 1976-1989
> Mexico -- War of Independence -- 1810-1821
> Mexico -- Mexican Revolution -- 1910-1921
> Morocco -- Rif War -- 1919-1926
> Mongolia -- Independence Era -- 1911-1921
> Montenegro -- World War One -- 1912-1918
> Montenegro -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
> Mozambique -- Independence + Civil War -- 1964-1988
> Myanmar -- World War Two -- 1938-1945
> Nepal -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
> Nepal -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
> New Zealand -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Nicaragua -- Sandinista National Liberation Front -- 1972-1990
> Niger -- Resistance to French -- 189x-191x
> (Northern) Nigeria -- Sokoto Caliphate -- 1804-1808
> (Southern) Nigeria -- Yoruba Wars -- 1817-183x
> Nigeria -- Resistance to French? -- 189x-191x
> Nigeria -- Baifran War -- 1966-1970
> North Korea -- Grand Prince Reforms? -- 1864-1873
> North Korea -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
> Pakistan -- 1857 Rebellion -- 1857-1858
> Pakistan -- Partition + War -- 1946-1947
> Panama -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
> Panama -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
> Panama -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
> Paraguay -- War of the Triple Alliance -- 1864-1870
> Paraguay -- Chaco War -- 1932-1935
> Peru -- Peruvian War of Independence -- 1812-1824
> Peru -- War of the Pacific -- 1878-1884
> Peru -- Instability and Military Dominance -- 1968-1985
> Philippines -- Philippine Revolution -- 1896-1898
> Philippines -- World War Two -- 1941-1945
> Poland -- January Uprising -- 1863-1864
> Poland -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Russia -- Crimean War + Emancipation -- 1853-1861
> Russia -- WWI + Bolshevik Revolution + Civil War -- 1915-1920
> Rwanda -- Civil War -- 1990-1994
> Saudi Arabia -- Ottoman-Saudi War -- 1801-1818
> Saudi Arabia -- Ibn Saud Conquests -- 1902-1925
> Serbia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
> Serbia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
> Sierra Leone -- Civil War -- 1991-2002
> Singapore -- World War Two -- 1942-1945
> Slovenia -- World War One -- 1912-1918
> Slovenia -- Bosnian War -- 1992-1995
> Somalia -- Dervish Resistance -- 1900-1920
> Somalia -- Civil War -- 1974-1994
> South Africa -- Mfecane -- 1815-1835
> South Africa -- Second Boer War -- 1899-1902
> South Africa -- Apartheid -- 1948-1960
> South Korea -- Grand Prince Reforms? -- 1864-1873
> South Korea -- World War Two -- 1937-1945
> Spain -- Peninsular War -- 1793-1814
> Spain -- Spanish Republic -- 1868-1874
> Spain -- Civil War -- 1936-1939
> Sudan -- Mahdist War -- 1881-1889
> Sudan -- Civil War -- 1983-Present
> Suriname -- 1980 Coups + Rebellion -- 1980-1992
> Syria -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
> Syria -- Lebanon War -- 1977-1982
> Tajikistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1920
> Tajikistan -- Civil War -- 1992-1997
> Tanzania -- Civil War + Invasion -- 1886-1896
> Tanzania -- Amin + Bush War -- 1966-1986
> Thailand -- World War Two -- 1932-1945
> Turkey -- Crimean War -- 1853-1856
> Turkey -- Dissolution of the Ottoman Empire -- 1908-1922
> Turkmenistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
> Uganda -- Civil War + Invasion -- 1886-1896
> Uganda -- Amin + Bush War -- 1966-1986
> USA -- Revolutionary War -- 1773-1781
> USA -- Civil War -- 1856-1865
> USA -- World War Two -- 1929-1945
> Uruguay -- Uruguayan War of Independence -- 1811-1825
> Uruguay -- José Batlle y Ordóñez? -- 1903-1915
> Uruguay -- Military Government -- 1959-1980
> Uzbekistan -- Resistance to Soviets -- 1916-1924
> Venezuela -- Bolivar’s War -- 1811-1825
> Venezuela -- War of a Thousand Days -- 1886-1902
> Venezuela -- La Violencia -- 1948-1958
> Vietnam -- French Indochina -- 1885-1895
> Vietnam -- Vietnam War -- 1965-1975
> Zimbabwe -- Ndebele Invasion/Mfecane Fallout -- 1815-1835
> Zimbabwe -- Mtabeleland Wars -- 1893-1897
> Zimbabwe -- Rhodesian Bush War -- 1964-1979
This a fantastic reference list!! I'm blown away!!

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#508 at 08-12-2007 05:57 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Matt,

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
> I assume you mean a 100-year saeculum, which is possible, but
> unlikely. I treat a Turning as a ~20 year event, never going
> outside the 15-25 range - except for the Crisis, which is highly
> variable. I treat the Crisis as a separate event, one that runs
> its course (once begun) based on a multitude of factors - not just
> generational shifts.
This is exactly right, and explains why so many people get confused
by this.

There are three distinct but related events going on:
  • The Crisis War. Historians and journalists are all over
    the map in describing when a war starts and ends.

    Everyone's talking about how the Darfur civil war began in 2004. Not
    true. It began as tribal disputes in the 1970s, picked up as a small
    regional war in the 1980s, was a continuing police action in the
    1990s, and hit its regeneracy on February 26, 2003. 2004 is simply
    the date that the press started to notice it.

    On the other hand, they talk about the Sri Lanka civil war as
    starting in 1976, which is correct. Go figure.

    Everyone says the Iraq war began in 2003. Actually, it began in
    1990.

    When did World War II start? Americans would say, November 7, 1941.
    The British would say 1939. I consider the Japanese invasion of
    Manchuria in 1931 to be part of WW II. And I think that an argument
    could be made that the first "shot" fired was the passage of the
    Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930.

    The Hundred Years War, which lasted 117 years, was actually several
    wars. Same for the 30 years war. You could think of WW I and WW II
    as being a single war, and some people do.

    The only thing about a war that I've found to be almost ALWAYS
    identifiable is the climax, the "raging typhoon." The regeneracy
    always exists, but it's not always easily identifiable. Still, the
    most accurate definition of "crisis war" would be the period of time
    between the regeneracy and the climax, although if the war started 20
    years earlier as low-level violence, you really have to say that.

    But it's important to note that a crisis war regeneracy can begin in
    the third, fourth or fifth turning.
  • The Fourth Turning. As you say, it's most convenient to
    identify these as 20 year intervals, although I've found the first
    turning to be a little shorter, and the 2nd and 3rd turnings to often
    be a little longer. I usually assume that the Fourth Turning begins
    55-60 years after the climax of the last crisis war.
  • The Crisis Era. This is a more informal term, I think. I
    would define it as beginning at the earlier of the Fourth Turning and
    the Crisis War, and ending with the climax of the crisis war. Thus,
    while a Crisis War lasts at most 5-10 years after the regeneracy, and
    often less, a Crisis Era can start many years earlier, and so last
    for a longer period of time.


Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#509 at 08-12-2007 05:57 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Nathaniel,

Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
> With both Cuba and Mexico, I have hit roadblocks. Specifically,
> with Cuba I found the last 4T (not the 1950s one, before that)
> very easily -- the Ten Years' War being the core of an 1870s 4T.
> But after the Revolution in 1959, there is so little information
> available. How am I to identify a 2T in the 1990s if Castro has
> kept such tight control of the media? Damned Commies.

> As for Mexico, the wrinkle about turning length has really f'd
> things up. Either turnings were longer (sometimes almost 30 years)
> before the Revolution, or they were equal length to modern
> turnings, but the Porfiriato was an uber-uber-long 3T. Neither
> option is particularly appealing, but if the latter case is true,
> then one has to ask: why has Mexico twice in a row had doubly-long
> 3Ts?
If you're having "writer's block" with one country, why don't you
start with some of the easier countries that you've studied, and come
back to Mexico later?

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#510 at 08-12-2007 06:51 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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I'm confused. Could you explain "But it's important to note that a crisis war regeneracy can begin in the third, fourth or fifth turning."

I understand the 4th, and think I might understand the 5th, but am not sure how a crisis war regeneracy can start in the 3T, absent time travel. Or do you mean the sort of thing that's happening now? Could you please give me an example and let me know?
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#511 at 08-12-2007 09:49 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
I'm confused. Could you explain "But it's important to note that a crisis war regeneracy can begin in the third, fourth or fifth turning."

I understand the 4th, and think I might understand the 5th, but am not sure how a crisis war regeneracy can start in the 3T, absent time travel. Or do you mean the sort of thing that's happening now? Could you please give me an example and let me know?
I'm not sure, but I think he means a regeneracy can occur during what would typically be an Unraveling era.







Post#512 at 08-13-2007 01:05 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I'm not sure, but I think he means a regeneracy can occur during what would typically be an Unraveling era.
How? Any examples, please?
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#513 at 08-13-2007 10:16 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
How? Any examples, please?
I think you misunderstood me. What I meant was that there would be an early Crisis, perhaps 50 years into the mid-cycle period.

Colombia, following the War of A Thousand Days (climax 1902), had their regeneracy shortly after the start in 1948. So this would be an early regeneracy in what should have been an Unraveling.







Post#514 at 08-13-2007 01:08 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I think you misunderstood me. What I meant was that there would be an early Crisis, perhaps 50 years into the mid-cycle period.

Colombia, following the War of A Thousand Days (climax 1902), had their regeneracy shortly after the start in 1948. So this would be an early regeneracy in what should have been an Unraveling.
Okay. Thanks!
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#515 at 08-13-2007 04:47 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Dear Nathaniel,



If you're having "writer's block" with one country, why don't you
start with some of the easier countries that you've studied, and come
back to Mexico later?

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
That's a good idea. I'd play around with a few scenarios, and if they don't seem to make sense in the narrative (this should be apparent quickly), move on to the next one. If none of them seem to work, get your mind refreshed with another. I look forward to reading about Cuba.

I needed a break after creating my list, but I'll try to knock out a couple countries before school starts.







Post#516 at 08-13-2007 05:12 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Dear Matt,

There are three distinct but related events going on:
  • The Crisis War. Historians and journalists are all over
    the map in describing when a war starts and ends.

    Everyone's talking about how the Darfur civil war began in 2004. Not
    true. It began as tribal disputes in the 1970s, picked up as a small
    regional war in the 1980s, was a continuing police action in the
    1990s, and hit its regeneracy on February 26, 2003. 2004 is simply
    the date that the press started to notice it.

    On the other hand, they talk about the Sri Lanka civil war as
    starting in 1976, which is correct. Go figure.

    Everyone says the Iraq war began in 2003. Actually, it began in
    1990.

    When did World War II start? Americans would say, November 7, 1941.
    The British would say 1939. I consider the Japanese invasion of
    Manchuria in 1931 to be part of WW II. And I think that an argument
    could be made that the first "shot" fired was the passage of the
    Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930.

    The Hundred Years War, which lasted 117 years, was actually several
    wars. Same for the 30 years war. You could think of WW I and WW II
    as being a single war, and some people do.

    The only thing about a war that I've found to be almost ALWAYS
    identifiable is the climax, the "raging typhoon." The regeneracy
    always exists, but it's not always easily identifiable. Still, the
    most accurate definition of "crisis war" would be the period of time
    between the regeneracy and the climax, although if the war started 20
    years earlier as low-level violence, you really have to say that.

    But it's important to note that a crisis war regeneracy can begin in
    the third, fourth or fifth turning.
  • The Fourth Turning. As you say, it's most convenient to
    identify these as 20 year intervals, although I've found the first
    turning to be a little shorter, and the 2nd and 3rd turnings to often
    be a little longer. I usually assume that the Fourth Turning begins
    55-60 years after the climax of the last crisis war.
  • The Crisis Era. This is a more informal term, I think. I
    would define it as beginning at the earlier of the Fourth Turning and
    the Crisis War, and ending with the climax of the crisis war. Thus,
    while a Crisis War lasts at most 5-10 years after the regeneracy, and
    often less, a Crisis Era can start many years earlier, and so last
    for a longer period of time.


Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Hey, that's pretty good. In the S&H paradigm, there is no difference between the Crisis and the Fourth Turning (that I know of), so it can get kind of confusing.

I'm using the "numbered turnings (1T)" as determining both mood and what generation will be produced, and "named turnings (Recovery)" for events. There isn't really any difference until you enter the 4T, where things can get screwy.

Since S&H make no distinction, I've been using different terminology. I've called the era between the Catalyst (or slower segue into the 4T) and the Crisis War (I've been using Catastrophe as a broader term) as a post-Unraveling era.

Not all countries have standard Crisis Wars; but those that do not, have replacements, which can come in the form of a high amount of instability (minor wars, coups) and changes. I've been calling the Catastrophe era one, as I can best describe it, that contains an unstoppable slide toward the explosive climax.

Come to think of it, this could be an alternate definition for the post-Regeneracy era, but I don't think Strauss and Howe would agree with this. So I think I'll stick with my terms.







Post#517 at 08-14-2007 04:14 PM by TimWalker [at joined May 2007 #posts 6,368]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post

Not all countries have standard Crisis Wars; but those that do not, have replacements, which can come in the form of a high amount of instability (minor wars, coups) and changes.
Do these "replacements" mean unsexy 4Ts?







Post#518 at 08-14-2007 05:18 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis View Post
Dear Nathaniel,



If you're having "writer's block" with one country, why don't you
start with some of the easier countries that you've studied, and come
back to Mexico later?
The commies are repressive enough to pervert (China), prevent (Soviet Union), or abort (Czechoslovakia) a 2T. If someone wants to say that eastern Europe and the Soviet Union missed out on 2Ts and went from 1T directly to 3T -- is that possible?

Does that mean a hastened 4T or a lengthened 3T? I can't quite consider the events of 1980-1992 as a Crisis in the USSR and eastern Europe.







Post#519 at 08-14-2007 05:50 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
The commies are repressive enough to pervert (China), prevent (Soviet Union), or abort (Czechoslovakia) a 2T. If someone wants to say that eastern Europe and the Soviet Union missed out on 2Ts and went from 1T directly to 3T -- is that possible?

Does that mean a hastened 4T or a lengthened 3T? I can't quite consider the events of 1980-1992 as a Crisis in the USSR and eastern Europe.
Remember, the primary function of a 2T is to produce a Nomad Gen (and move the other Gens through the life cycle). So, technically speaking, a 2T cannot be prevented or aborted. And perverted is POV.







Post#520 at 08-14-2007 05:52 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by TimWalker View Post
Do these "replacements" mean unsexy 4Ts?
If your definition of sexy is equivalent to the creation of mass-produced human bacon, then yes, these "replacements" are certainly unsexy.







Post#521 at 08-19-2007 01:15 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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I'm currently working on Turkey/Ottoman Empire. I think it's especially important to go back to its origins. However, I won't be able to do a complete mid-cycle analysis (1st turning, 2nd turning etc.) for the earlier periods. That would be too much to handle.

What I am finding difficult is distinguishing between Crises and non-Crises in some of these cases. I'm finding it hard to determine the amount of energy from the population. I'm only left to show how significant the war was. Does anyone have any suggestions?
Last edited by Matt1989; 08-19-2007 at 01:30 AM.







Post#522 at 08-19-2007 02:38 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
> The commies are repressive enough to pervert (China), prevent
> (Soviet Union), or abort (Czechoslovakia) a 2T. If someone wants
> to say that eastern Europe and the Soviet Union missed out on 2Ts
> and went from 1T directly to 3T -- is that possible?
No.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#523 at 08-19-2007 02:40 PM by John J. Xenakis [at Cambridge, MA joined May 2003 #posts 4,010]
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Dear Matt,

Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
> I'm currently working on Turkey/Ottoman Empire. I think it's
> especially important to go back to its origins. However, I won't
> be able to do a complete mid-cycle analysis (1st turning, 2nd
> turning etc.) for the earlier periods. That would be too much to
> handle.

> What I am finding difficult is distinguishing between Crises and
> non-Crises in some of these cases. I'm finding it hard to
> determine the amount of energy from the population. I'm only left
> to show how significant the war was. Does anyone have any
> suggestions?
I've had this problem all along.

If you're talking about a war that's even been remembered after a
millennium or two, then it's certain to be a crisis war. But even
that's a complicated assertion, because it might be a crisis war for
only one side and not the other.

When I was doing a summary of Vietnam, I lost track of the timeline
in the 1600s.
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/showpost.php?p=171248&postcount=1115

The wars in the 1400s and 1500s and 1700s were very clear, but around
1600 there were two wars that seemed to be very important. I just
left it as "further study is required." What I really think happened
is that the earlier and later crisis wars were between the North and
the South, but the two wars around 1600 were on separate North and
South timelines. That requires more research, of course, but it shows
how complicated the situation can be.

This is particularly an issue for the Ottoman Empire, which fought
wars on several fronts following the fall of Constantinople.

I've dealt with hundreds of these situations by this time, and what
I've found is that you can resolve almost any problem by checking
enough sources. Sooner or later, some historian is going to give you
all the detail you need to figure out exactly what's going on.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com







Post#524 at 08-19-2007 03:36 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I'm currently working on Turkey/Ottoman Empire. I think it's especially important to go back to its origins. However, I won't be able to do a complete mid-cycle analysis (1st turning, 2nd turning etc.) for the earlier periods. That would be too much to handle.

What I am finding difficult is distinguishing between Crises and non-Crises in some of these cases. I'm finding it hard to determine the amount of energy from the population. I'm only left to show how significant the war was. Does anyone have any suggestions?
The Ottoman Empire came into its existence as a Great Power in 1453 during the Renaissance and has had an ambiguous role in European history. It got entangled in most European wars and seems to have been more of an adapter of European culture and technology than any non-Western country until Japan after 1853. Until the late 19th century it dominated southeastern Europe. If anything, it seems to have adopted weapons technology more effectively than did the doomed Byzantine Empire.

I'd interpret the Balkan Wars and World War I as its terminal crisis.







Post#525 at 08-19-2007 05:27 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
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I finally had Cuba almost put together when it occurred to me that something is wrong. The Ten Years' War cannot have been a Crisis, but probably a very ugly Unraveling, even if the casualty toll was higher than that of the War of Independence from 1895-98. In the end, the Ten Years' War did not result in independence. The latter war did, and was much more heroic and historic.

Then again, the public reaction to de Cespedes' freeing his slaves and calling plantation owners to rebellion was so 4T. I compare it to John Brown's raid. In an Unraveling, the feeling would have been "he's a loon, whatever". But in a Crisis, thousands of people took to arms and attempted to overthrow one of the greatest empires ever. They didn't succeed, but they tried.

But then, how could independence have been achieved in 1898 (after a bloody and internationally-watched struggle) in a 1T? When has that EVER happened? 1Ts simply don't have that kind of radical change.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ
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