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Thread: Cusper Presidents - Page 3







Post#51 at 09-25-2007 11:18 AM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
I'm sure they'll be glad to have you clear that up for them. I mean, Russians actually living in Russia seem to have this crazy idea that Russian identity is distinct from both European and Asian (which latter landmass, by the way, is the home of the bulk of the Russian land -- as well as the bulk of the Russian nationalities).
Then their fate is sealed. To hell they shall go.

Should be a welcome relief from the cold!







Post#52 at 09-25-2007 01:14 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Then their fate is sealed. To hell they shall go.

Should be a welcome relief from the cold!
That circle of Hell is frozen; haven't you read your Dante?

-- though at least they'll already be equipped to dress properly...
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#53 at 09-25-2007 04:40 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
The internal transformation of French society and the French state (4T) had worked itself out by the time Napoleon crowned himself emperor. The following period, domestically, was mostly a conservative period of consolidation (1T), not innovation. You are misinterpreting 1T imperialism for a 4T crisis war (the real crisis war was France fending off Austrian and Prussian invasion in the 1790s). The Congress of Vienna just reinforced the conservative 1T mood that was present at the time.
You are wrong. History itself contradicts you. Read history textbooks. And if you persist in your false thinking you should be banned from this website.







Post#54 at 09-25-2007 04:41 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
No no no!

I agree that 1T wars following a government takeover are usually wars of consolidation. However, even taking a brief glance at the Napoleonic Wars is not the way in which they were carried out. Napoleon hoped to create a single unified European state, and anyone who stood in the way would be crushed by his energetic army.

It just does not fit. The Congress of Vienna reflected a 1T mood, probably since it was post-climax, which I consider to be 1T anyway.
The Congress of Vienna marks the end of the Crisis.







Post#55 at 09-25-2007 04:42 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Flyingeye76 View Post
Actually a number of early GI Civic's were in the first World War, they just lied about their age to get in. They wer eager to sign up and most recruiters couldn't care less. My 1902 grandfather lied about his age and was in the Navy in 1918.
And your grandfather might want to have thought twice, and HE ISN'T TYPICAL OF G. I.'S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!







Post#56 at 09-25-2007 05:13 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
You are wrong. History itself contradicts you. Read history textbooks. And if you persist in your false thinking you should be banned from this website.
"Read history textbooks" is a poor argument, since it doesn't address the issue. And plus, general textbooks won't give an idea of the mood the nation was in.

And shut the hell up with the banning and jail thing you lunatic. (TM)

Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
The Congress of Vienna marks the end of the Crisis.
I look at it from a different perspective. Refer to: http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...&postcount=321







Post#57 at 09-25-2007 06:09 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
You are wrong. History itself contradicts you. Read history textbooks. And if you persist in your false thinking you should be banned from this website.
I am fairly well read in European History so shut up Mr. Thought Police.

Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
The Congress of Vienna marks the end of the Crisis.
So Western Europe only had a ~12 year long 1T? The Romantic Awakening started in the mid-to-late 1820s. Kind of hard for a 2T to start before the Prophets start entering young adulthood...
Last edited by Odin; 09-25-2007 at 06:11 PM.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#58 at 09-25-2007 06:31 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Some posts from the Western Europe thread I ran into:

Quote Originally Posted by Stanley Alston '61 View Post
I'm going to leave you guys with a couple of things. For those of you who might recall an old promise, I was going to see if I could find the generational set up for the English/British. For the most part I think I have, and here is it:

English Puritan (Prophet) - 1588-1617
English Cavaliers (Nomad) - 1618-1650
English Glorious (Hero) - 1651-1676
Hanoverians (Artist) - 1677-1701
Evangelicals (Prophet) - 1702-1727
Radicals (Nomad) - 1728-1754
Britons (Hero) - 1755-1780
Romantics (Artist) - 1781-1800
Victorians (Prophet) - 1801-1824
Imperials (Nomad/Hero) - 1825-1852
Edwardians (Artist) - 1853-1869
Ecumenicals (Prophet) - 1870-1886
Contemptibles (Nomad) - 1887-1905
Fews (Hero) - 1906-1926
Blitzs (Artist) - 1927-1943
Mods (Prophet) - 1944-1962
Hooligans (Nomad) - 1963-1981
Millenials (Hero) - 1982-????
New Artists (Artists) - ????-????
Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
Thanks Stanley. I am looking forward to what you have to say about the saeculum in 19th century Britain/Europe. What I find most interesting is the divergence of opinion between people who are all brilliant and well-informed. Some say a 4T ended in 1806 (like you). Some say the 4T ended in 1815 (my less-informed inclination). Yet another says a 2T started in 1815!!! Wow.

Like I said, I am really anxious to see more of this play out here on the boards. Besides curiosity for curiosity's sake, I am very interested in this concept of a saecular transition occurring in societies industrializing (or going post-agricultural, if one prefers). For the First World I feel this would've meant the 19th and very early 20th centuries (depending on the nation) and the 20th century proper for much of the rest of the world (and for many people right now!).
Quote Originally Posted by Stanley Alston '61 View Post
William Jennings Bryan:



Thanks. As for why I think the crisis ended for Britain is this. Now follow me closely: In 1802, the British and French signed a peace treaty, but it would be better called a temporary cease fire, since both sides knew they would be back at each other throats, and they were in 1803, when Britain refused to leave the island of Malta. Britain at the time had no allies, and the French, under Napoleon, were very strong.
From the very moment of the renewal of hostilities, Napoleon has set up an Army of Invasion, prepared to invade England. The British, for their part, were prepared to defend themselves with a Home Guard, as well as having lookouts and signal beacons along the coast, watching for the first signs of the French Army crossing the channel. But, the only way the French would be able to do that would be if they could gain control of the channel and the only way that would happen would be the defeat of the Royal Navy. At the same time, the British, under William Pitt the younger, who had returned to power in May 1804, signed treaties with the Austrians and Russians, whose armies would then move to the west and, thereby would crush Napoleon from the rear. Napoleon, during the meantime, had himself declared Emperor of France.
In 1805, during the summer, the Austro-Russian armies moved westward, while the combined Frenco-Spanish navy first moved to the west, towards the Caribbean, and then back to the channel, so that it could slip past the ships of the Royal Navy that were under the command of Admiral Nelson, so that they could combine with the French Army that was set to invade England, and defend it during the crossing to England. The results was the destruction of the Franco-Spanish Navy by Nelson's ships at Trafalgar on October 21, while a French army of seven corps that were sent to defend the French 'rear' against the combined Austro-Russian army, forced an Austrian Army of 50,000 men to surrender at Ulm in Bavaria on October 15. The result was that England were now master of the sea for the rest of the so-call Napoleon Wars, and would then be the dominant Navy in the world until the dawn of the 20th Century, while France was becoming the dominant land power in Europe.
Napoleon's army, its naval support now gone, would no longer be able to threathen England/Britain with invasion, but it still had the Austro-Russian armies to worry about. So, the Invasion Army was moved to the east to combine with the units that had already been sent to defend the 'rear' and defeat them. In December, his army met the Austro-Russian army at Austerlitz and destroyed it. The Russian withdrew back to Poland, while the Austrians signed a peace treaty. The following year, the French then faced the Prussian Army, which it destroyed in the battles of Jena and Auerstadt, thus destroying the major proponent of the 'Frederick the Great' style of warfare, while making the Prussian court flee to the east and be defended by the Russians, who in 1807 themselves came to term with Napoleon, ending the Third Coalition. This is important, since days after the Battle of Jena, Napoleon issued the Belin Decrees, which were suppose to cripple Britain economically, by closing the ports of French-controlled Europe from British trade goods. And, he then tried to expand it to the rest of Europe that he didn't have control of militarily.
Of course, Britain retailaited with it orders in council in 1807 which said that neturals trading with the French had to stop by Britain first, which was in reality trying to make the neutrals take on British goods thereby trying to get past the Continental System of Napoleon. So, from 1806, Britain and France were in as much an Economic war as it was a shooting war. But, it was a war that the French lost since they were trying to deny Europe economic goods that the British could mainly supply, as well as having the system put upon the rest of Europe without it approval caused anomosity towards the French, which eventually led to the Spanish Ulser of the Peninsular War of 1808-1814, the disaster of the Russian Campaign of 1812, the War of (German) Liberation of 1813 including the Battle of the Nations of Leipzig, the invasion of France and occupation of Paris of 1813-1814 and the Hundred Days of 1815.
So, Britain, by 1806, which first had a government of all the Talents in control in 1806-07 (after William's death), and then the Duke of Portland ministry that began in 1807, was in an economic frame of mind, with the invasion crisis resolved since the French could no longer attack her since it no longer had a fleet, scooping up the colonies of its defeated allies and attacking French along the edges instead of headon. The French, at the same time, tried to strike at Britain economically, which eventually ended in failure, but the French only tried it since she was the main military power on the European continent and tried to 'bully' the other states to see things its way economically, since it had the military power to do so at the start.

As for a 2nd Turning starting in 1815, I do not see an Awakening happening at all since neither Britain or Europe had had enough time to economically recover from the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars. Simple as that. A high needed to have had a time to work its course, and neither Britain or Europe had had the time to recover from over 20 years of war.

Stanley
Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
So the 1806-1815 portion of the Napoleonic Wars were 1T in nature by your reckoning, with 1805 being a climatic 4T ending for England?
Quote Originally Posted by Stanley Alston '61 View Post
Yes. Britain's political nation, translated as being mostly the aristocracy, the gentry and the upper middle class, as well as those who had emigrated from France because of the French Revolution, felt threaten by the political going ons in France, especially during the period of the Reign of Terror of the early to mid 1790s, and feared what would happen to their own positions in Britain if it was transferred there. If you look at British history, the government cracked down hard on those radicals that did exist, while those who supported the government joined what would best be termed a Home Guard, instead of the regular Army, to defend hearth and home from the radical French hordes. That fear only went away with the victory of Tarfalgar, since Napoleon's armies, without having a navy to transport and protect it, had no way to cross the English Channel successfully.

Stanley
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#59 at 09-25-2007 07:03 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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I agree with the 1805 end date for Britain.

Not for France though... (see above)







Post#60 at 09-26-2007 11:03 AM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
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Civic/Heroes

Quote Originally Posted by Flyingeye76 View Post
I don't know, a fresh faced kid eagerly wanting to join the team and fight the bad guys. Sounds pretty civic to me.
-I accept S&Hs 1900-1901 dividing line, due to WWI.

Civic/Hero generations aren't about fresh faced kids eagerly crossing bayonets with the boche; they're about accomplishing a mission they were ordered to accomplished- typical Civic/Heroes are draftees.

Gotta' go.







Post#61 at 09-26-2007 12:22 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
-I accept S&Hs 1900-1901 dividing line, due to WWI.

Civic/Hero generations aren't about fresh faced kids eagerly crossing bayonets with the boche; they're about accomplishing a mission they were ordered to accomplished- typical Civic/Heroes are draftees.
I couldn't agree with this more.
  • Civics go off to war as ordered, but their main focus is duty fulfillment rather than adventure or even patriotism..
  • Nomads are much more likely to go to war willingly - often for less than civic-minded reasons.
  • Prophets go if the cause is righteous enough, and resist when it's not.
  • Artists are the go along to get along group, so they'll be there even though they hate themselves for going.
I think this war has examples of all the first three groups, with artists only absent due to age.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#62 at 09-26-2007 02:31 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
I couldn't agree with this more.
  • Civics go off to war as ordered, but their main focus is duty fulfillment rather than adventure or even patriotism..
  • Nomads are much more likely to go to war willingly - often for less than civic-minded reasons.
  • Prophets go if the cause is righteous enough, and resist when it's not.
  • Artists are the go along to get along group, so they'll be there even though they hate themselves for going.
I think this war has examples of all the first three groups, with artists only absent due to age.
Great M&L!







Post#63 at 09-26-2007 02:40 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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James, in response to your message,

I apologize for helping to bring this thread onto a new topic. That's just what happens here.







Post#64 at 09-26-2007 04:51 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Flyingeye76 View Post
I don't know, a fresh faced kid eagerly wanting to join the team and fight the bad guys. Sounds pretty civic to me.
The Central Powers weren't the bad guys. I support them. I'd rather the war had never happened, tho.







Post#65 at 09-26-2007 05:40 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
The Central Powers weren't the bad guys. I support them. I'd rather the war had never happened, tho.
Then, by your own logic, your actions would have been illegal, and thus you should get the death penalty.







Post#66 at 09-29-2007 01:49 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
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Generations & Military Stuff

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
  • Civics go off to war as ordered, but their main focus is duty fulfillment rather than adventure or even patriotism..
  • Nomads are much more likely to go to war willingly - often for less than civic-minded reasons.
  • Prophets go if the cause is righteous enough, and resist when it's not.
  • Artists are the go along to get along group, so they'll be there even though they hate themselves for going.
Most of my reply is on posting #685 "4T and Anything Military" (SPECIAL TOPICS Forum). It's incomplete and oversimplified, but it's a start.

Although US presidents won't be completely representative of their age cohorts, I discuss the same issues in "Presidents & Military/War Experience" (THE BOOK AND THEORIES OF HISTORY Forum), particularly posting #1.

The following Cuspers (strictly defined) performed active military service:

Jackson (1767)
Grant (1822)
Hayes (1822)
McKinnley (1843)
Carter (1924)
Bush, GHW (1924)

I don't see any obvious patterns that differentiate them from Non-Cuspers. Oh well. Any takers?







Post#67 at 09-29-2007 02:09 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
Then, by your own logic, your actions would have been illegal, and thus you should get the death penalty.
Catholic doctrine states that the death penalty is wrong, and all true Christians must obey this.







Post#68 at 10-27-2007 07:22 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
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Oh, boy

Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
The Lost Generation's last cohort was in 1900. This is undisputable. The experience of fighting in World War I did not affect anyone born after 1900, as they were too young to join the Army. Carter is a G. I., and can never be a Silent. He's just suppressed. Jane Addams was also born in 1860, and she sure as hell was no Progressive. Your grandmother was an exception to the Lost Generation. And Truman overrides any possibility of 1884 being a Missionary year. 1883 was also a Lost year. Accept it or leave the website, as we are not to debate over what S&H said explicitly, as they know more than us and it just gives idiots that don't believe in the Theory reason to proclaim it crap. Gingrich had a Boomer lifecycle. Stop proclaiming that only Silents get divorces and remarriages, as that is too discriminatory for my tastes and the facts contradict you anyways. Bill Clinton is a Boomer, just accept it and stop chattering about your nonsensical ideas, the rest of us sane people are getting tired of it.
Sean, you may go straight to hell.

There is no one on this site--including Strauss and Howe--who has the historical credentials that I do. I have never insisted that anyone accept my opinion. I do expect people to respect it. Bill and Neil, both friends of mine, do respect my opinions, even when we differ.

I could rebut your points one by one, but you are not worth it. Instead you are going on my ignore list, my friend. Have a nice life.







Post#69 at 10-27-2007 07:28 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
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Agreemtn

Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
IMO the Revolution 4T in France started when France became our ally, turning the American Revolution into a world war and ruining France's finances. The Regeneracy occurred with the calling of the States-General and the Third Estate declaring itself the National Assembly. The Climax was the period just following Napoleon's coup and the Resolution was Napoleon declaring himself emperor and signing a peace treaty (that didn't last long) with Great Britian in (IIRC) 1805. The rest of the Napoleonic Wars were in a 1T.
I agree with Odin--both France and Britain, actually, were through their 4Ts by about 1800. For some reason people have trouble accepting that countries can fight major wars during Highs, but they can. In Highs domestic enemies have been driven underground--but foreign enemies are fair game. . .the domestic enemies in Britain were the Democrats and the Irish, who were wiped out during the 1790s. In France the civil conflict was over by 1799.







Post#70 at 10-28-2007 12:13 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2 View Post
I agree with Odin--both France and Britain, actually, were through their 4Ts by about 1800. For some reason people have trouble accepting that countries can fight major wars during Highs, but they can. In Highs domestic enemies have been driven underground--but foreign enemies are fair game. . .the domestic enemies in Britain were the Democrats and the Irish, who were wiped out during the 1790s. In France the civil conflict was over by 1799.
Nobody who's ever heard of the War of 1812 can fail to understand that! But - "The Irish were wiped out by 1790"? And 50 years later a whole bunch of them headed for the United States ... in numbers great enough to, in due time, be drafted for the Civil War straight off the boat?
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#71 at 10-28-2007 02:55 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
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wiped out Irish

They were wiped out politically, by late 1790s, and the coup de grace (1802 I believe) was the act of Union, taking away their own Parliament AND denying Catholics the vote.







Post#72 at 10-28-2007 04:48 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2 View Post
They were wiped out politically, by late 1790s, and the coup de grace (1802 I believe) was the act of Union, taking away their own Parliament AND denying Catholics the vote.

Ah. Figured it might be something of the sort. In short, the conquest was complete. Followed, I note, by famine within less than 3 generations.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#73 at 12-16-2007 05:52 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Quote Originally Posted by MichaelEaston View Post
I agree with the 1805 end date for Britain.

Not for France though... (see above)
The problem with the 4T being the napoleonic era and resolving in 1815, is that would make the 1790s a 3T. The revolution was a clear crisis event NOT an unraveling event. The subsequent war of the first coalition is a clear crisis war fought be hero young adults and nomad commanders.







Post#74 at 12-16-2007 07:04 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
The problem with the 4T being the napoleonic era and resolving in 1815, is that would make the 1790s a 3T.
No. ----------------------------







Post#75 at 12-17-2007 08:14 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Europe's 4T that saeculum lasted from approximately 1789 to approximately 1815. History vindicates this assumption.
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