Originally Posted by Tim Walker

(And some superstitious folk say that given 1810 and 1910, some interesting things could happen circa 2010).

Would not a sudden, explosive expansion northward against ineffectual US resistance, ending only at the Canadian border and the western bank of the Mississippi River, also qualify as an 'interesting thing' to see happen to Mexico - just as much as Mexico's breakup, if not more so? (Assuming, of course, that either is at all likely.)

Further quoting Juan Enrique:

"The Yucatan is cut off from Mexico by mountains, language, culture, and ethnicity. The peninsula's relative isolation, jungles, poverty, and lack of natural resources (especially silver and gold) provided little incentive to dominate indigenous populations.

"Among Mexicans, the Maya are still those most likely to speak their own language.

"Yucatan's indigenous population is twice as high as that of southern states, four times that of the center, and twenty times that of northern Mexico.

"The music, food, language, humor, and spices are unlike any other in Mexico.

"(A Yucatecan restaurant is not your typical Mexican fare; beware of he chilies...)

"Each village in the Yucatan is still organized into a military-like structure. Every person is assigned to a company, and many village officers have military titles.

"They have traded, and fought, with Aztecs for centuries. White Mexicans and foreigners, both called dzul, are not always welcome.

"They represent a different type of human, a foreigner, an enemy.

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Further quoting Juan Enrique:

"The Yucatan is cut off from Mexico by mountains, language, culture, and ethnicity. The peninsula's relative isolation, jungles, poverty, and lack of natural resources (especially silver and gold) provided little incentive to dominate indigenous populations.

"Among Mexicans, the Maya are still those most likely to speak their own language.

"Yucatan's indigenous population is twice as high as that of southern states, four times that of the center, and twenty times that of northern Mexico.

"The music, food, language, humor, and spices are unlike any other in Mexico.

"(A Yucatecan restaurant is not your typical Mexican fare; beware of he chilies...)

"Each village in the Yucatan is still organized into a military-like structure. Every person is assigned to a company, and many village officers have military titles.

"They have traded, and fought, with Aztecs for centuries. White Mexicans and foreigners, both called dzul, are not always welcome.

"They represent a different type of human, a foreigner, an enemy.

Especially considering that the Mayans racked up a record of fighting back against the Spanish that was unparalleled elsewhere in MesoAmerica, and fought a war against the Mexican central government that lasted for most of the 19th century and into the 20th. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, one of their pre-Columbian temple complexes held out against the Spanish conquistadores until sometime in the mid-17th cent. - well over a century after the fall of the Aztec and Incan Empires.

Juan Enriquez wrote:

"Among Mexicans, the Maya are still those most likely to speak their own language.

"The Yucatan remained a separate nation for centuries. Spaniards were unable to control most Mayan cities until 1546, a quarter-century after the fall of the Aztec capital.

"Thereafter the Spaniards faced periodic uprisings. Whole areas refused to be conquered.

"Nevertheless, a large part of the Yucatan's wealth was taken to Mexico City and Spain. What little was left was poorly distributed, often to carpetbaggers in large haciendas.

"Even after Mexico's independence, Yucatecans repeatedly attempted to secede from Mexico.

"On May 31, 1841, Yucatan declared itself independent and adopted a flag with stars and stripees...red, white, and green.

"(Gee, I wonder who inspired this flag...)

"Yucatan grudgingly rejoined Mexico on August 17, 1848.

"The rebel Maya capital, Santa Cruz, was not captured until 1901.

Juan Enriquez wrote:

"Secessionism reappeared again during Mexico's revolution.

"Felipe Carrilo declared Yucatan an independent socialist republic in 1916. in 1923-1924, Mayans again proclaimed an independent Yucatan, with Mayan as the official language."

Juan Enriquez wrote:

"Through the 1970s the peninsula remained harsh, even by Mexico's standards of poverty.

"But now Cancun, Mexico's most successful tourism resort, is a source of jobs and wealth. The Bay of Campeche holds vast oil reserves. Airports and roads have multiplied. Even maquiladoras flourished.

"(By 1993, mostly due to oil, the Yucatan was the most productive region in the country....)

"So the once poor regional cousin has revived its lost empire. It is an economy that looks as viable, in economic terms, as that of Tunisia."

Juan Enriquez wrote:

Most Yucatecans still do not care much for the mores, demands, and customs of central Mexico. Large-scale immigration from other parts of Mexico to the Caribbean resort areas has not stemmed a growing desire for regional autonomy and self-governance.

"If anything, immigrants rapidly tend to adopt Yucatecan's viewpoints vis-a-vis Mexico City."

Quoting Juan Enriquez:

"Finally, there is the indigenous South. Mexico's southern-Pacific states (Oaxaca, Guerrero, Chiapas) are entirely different from the Yucatan.

"Centuries ago Mexico's southern states refused to remain subject to the Yucatan Mayan empires.

"This is an isolated, tough, violent, culturally diverse region.

"Here, too, one can find a history of fragmentation and secession.

"When Mexican Nationalists discuss the loss of over half of the country's territory, they tend to focus on the perfidious gringos, conveniently ignoring the fact that large losses also occurred along the southern border.

Juan Enriquez wrote:

"Mexico and Central America were, for centuries, part of the same country. When Mexico began to break off from the Spanish Empire in 1810, it was not clear how much of the Mayan Empire the newly minted Mexican state could claim or keep.

"...many Central Americans were frustrated with Mexico City's taxes, warlords, poverty, and taxes."

Secession movements removed Guatemala (with most of Chiapas), Nicaragua, etc.

Enriquez also wrote:

"...Chiapas, historically, has always been one of the fault lines of Mexican secessions. The fuel for Zapatista-like movements is centuries of repressed rage. Today's pro- and anti-Zapatista towns reflect the disputes of the 1500s, 1800s, and 1900s.

"Many fear the Zapatista guerrilla movement, with its own flag, borders, and army could attempt to secede. Thus far, the Zapatista rebels have been explicit:

"'We do not want the control of territory or the separation of Mexico...we demand the recognition of the rights of indigenous peoples and democracy, liberty and justice for all Mexicans.'

"However, where a movement begins and where it ends up is rarely the same point.

"When violent uprisings take place in a geopolitical playground, historic feuds can bury any contemporary political or rebel leadership."

Enriquez compared an independent Indigenous southern-Pacific region to Ecuador.

Hmm,... The loss of the Yucatan and the 'Indigenous South' could push Mexico into the scenario I have spoken of before, just as the forced movement of the Sassanid Persian Empire's political center of gravity from the Iranian Plateau to Mesopotamia around 500 AD (in the wake of some particularly disastrous raids by the Eastern Huns) put said empire into an even more adversarial relationship with the Eastern Roman (soon to be Byzantine) Empire than before. Refer to Peter Brown's 'The World of Late Antiquity'.

Samuel Huntington pointed out that NAFTA was not an inevitable choice for Mexico. Mexico might have stuck to its old anti-gringo third world foreign policy.

So...if the southern regions were to seceed, who else to blame but the gringos?

Enriquez wrote:

"But even if much of Mexico walked away from Mexico City,

"It would still leave behind a country that looked like a compact Poland."

Juan Enriquez wrote:

"There is a well established tradition of dissent in the North, of going at it first and alone.

"The first major breaks in the governing party (PRI) monopoly occurred mostly in northern states. So in any autonomy debate, one would expect the North to be an early adopter.

"Baja is largely isolated from the rest of Mexico. It is increasingly connected to the U.S.

"With the exception of Tijuana, the Baja California Peninsula is a relatively sparsely populated region, stretching over a thousand kilometers.

"It is often cheaper and easier to fly to the tip of Baja from Los Angeles than it is from Mexico City.

"Many would like to integrate further with the U.S. Because when they look at a separate northern Mexico, they realize it would look a lot like Chile.

"Northern Mexico, or Baja alone, has a far better chance of eventually reaching a European Union type of arrangement with the U.S. than does Mexico as a whole.

"(This type of incentive was what first tore apart Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia).

"It is a choice many richer regions within poor countries have made time and again. The incentive to separate a part of the North increases substantially in the measure that southern Mexico becomes increasingly unstable and poor."

@

I can fairly easily imagine California annexing Baja... think of all that cheap land down there just waiting to be developed!

Baja as Greater Los Angeles. Wonderfull. Terrific.

The status quo-rules against gringo ownership-may be preserving the very qualities that make Baja desirable.

But would Baja be a red, blue or a purple state?

Inquiring minds want to know. :P

All of that undevoloped land would make the real estate lobby powerful, that would lean things red. However, considering the need for massive de-salinazation projects to secure an adequite water supply for those real estate devolopments, it would likely be a "big government" type state, a blue influence in that it is unlikely that Californians seeking lower taxes would flock there after seeing how much the "water assessment" charge was/is. :!:

If, as Enriquez suggested, northern Mexico should become independent, I can imagine an understanding being reached. Nothern Mexico, if it adopted a stance of neutrality, might serve as a buffer state.

I just spent a day in Mexico with my daughter and her cousin. We took a day-long bus tour from San Diego. We went into Baja California -- saw Rosarita Beach and Ensenada.

What was striking about the part of Mexico that I saw (both walking around and from the car) was the wild-west anything goes atmosphere of the place. There are no zoning laws, so you will see very upscale condominiums and a couple of blocks away, shanties.

The other striking thing was the amount of building going on. Americans are discovering that starting at $100,000 up, they can purchase a condo (that is, purchase the building and rent the land for 50 years) with a view of the Pacific Ocean. If there is no potable water, you can order these huge tanks from Home Depot and get that set up. So as I was riding along the Baja coast, I saw all these signs in English saying "for sale", "mortgages available", clearly targeted to Americans. It was startling to see Remax Realtor offices in Mexico.

According to my brother-in-law, many retired Americans, particularly those retiring from the military, are buying up these condos, often as second vacation homes.

Of course, I have no idea how well these structures would survive earthquakes.

It all was very intriguing and disquieting, too.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

I can fairly easily imagine California annexing Baja... think of all that cheap land down there just waiting to be developed!

I just noticed your post. That is exactly what is going on. :wink:

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

According to my brother-in-law, many retired Americans, particularly those retiring from the military, are buying up these condos, often as second vacation homes.

Of course, I have no idea how well these structures would survive earthquakes.

It all was very intriguing and disquieting, too.

Hey, I didn't know Dave H. knew anyone in Baja! Those globetrotting Aussies sure do get around. Perhaps he and Sal can get me a sweet deal on a winter place by the beach...?

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

According to my brother-in-law, many retired Americans, particularly those retiring from the military, are buying up these condos, often as second vacation homes.

Of course, I have no idea how well these structures would survive earthquakes.

It all was very intriguing and disquieting, too.

Hey, I didn't know Dave H. knew anyone in Baja! Those globetrotting Aussies sure do get around. Perhaps he and Sal can get me a sweet deal on a winter place by the beach...?

No, I'm talking about Mark Raftery, the husband of Linda's aunt, nee Miriam Genser. :wink:

I'm currently in La Mesa, California (20 minutes from sunny San Diego), and guess what. It's raining. :evil:

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

According to my brother-in-law, many retired Americans, particularly those retiring from the military, are buying up these condos, often as second vacation homes.

Of course, I have no idea how well these structures would survive earthquakes.

It all was very intriguing and disquieting, too.

Hey, I didn't know Dave H. knew anyone in Baja! Those globetrotting Aussies sure do get around. Perhaps he and Sal can get me a sweet deal on a winter place by the beach...?

No, I'm talking about Mark Raftery, the husband of Linda's aunt, nee Miriam Genser. :wink:

I'm currently in La Mesa, California (20 minutes from sunny San Diego), and guess what. It's raining. :evil:

My point.

The Republic of the Rio Grande

Mexicans fleeing drug war violence seek asylum in US.

"No one doubts that they have a strong claim. Their town on the Mexican side of the border is under siege by one or more drug cartels battling for control of the key border crossing. According to Mike Doyle, the chief deputy sheriff of Hudspeth County, Texas, one of the cartels has ordered all residents of the town of 10,000 to abandon the city within the next month.

"They came in and put up a sign in the plaza telling everyone to leave or pay with their own blood," Doyle said. Since then there has been a steady stream of El Porvenir residents seeking safety on the American side of the border, both legally and illegally. Among them are the 30 who are seeking political asylum."

Can you imagine if the whole town came at once? What if the tactic goes viral? It would be a human disaster - desert, no water, people - very predictable. How do we prepare? Do we prepare?

More here: http://bit.ly/com6Il

James50

The drug war has already seeped far north of the border. This in a country that will have less and less capacity to absorb refugees as it sinks deeper into the 4T pit.

Reminds me of the drug cartel nastiness in No Country for Old Men.

This is a reason why I doubt that this will be glamorous 4T. A "time of ugliness" (see Guinea) may strip away America's naivete. Which would be consistent with the suggestion that the next saeculum may play out as a Mega-Unraveling - being conservative in a cynical way.