Originally Posted by Zarathustra

It's not just Tristan. A great many Middle East scholars talk of a religious awakening occuring throughout most of the world of Islam in the late 20th century. An older order came under attack in those decades, broadly speaking. This week's events in Gaza just underline how the old order's secular nationalism is crumbling.

Do you believe the entire ME, including Israel/Palestine, is 3T?

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

It's not just Tristan. A great many Middle East scholars talk of a religious awakening occuring throughout most of the world of Islam in the late 20th century. An older order came under attack in those decades, broadly speaking. This week's events in Gaza just underline how the old order's secular nationalism is crumbling.

Exactly, I've read a lot of those sources especially what they tell me what happened in the middle east in the last two decades of the 20th century.

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Do you believe the entire ME, including Israel/Palestine, is 3T?

I believe most of the Islamic world is in an early 3T right now. To my mind there are certain localities that may have been in a different rhythm but with the world getting smaller saecular overlays are forcing those areas into synch to varying degrees. This process had been going in Europe for centuries and now the West is almost completely in synch, for example.

It is clear that there was a strong push for institiutionalizing secular nationalism throughout large swaths of that part of the world in the 1940's and 1950's -- India included. Then, around c. 1980, the "Islamic Resurgence" sprang onto the scene with a vengence in most Islamic nations (and in India a similar surge of Hindu fundamentalism ocurred), seemingly starting in Iran but becoming obvious all over the place shortly afterward from Algeria to Egypt to Palestine to Pakistan, possibly even Indonesia. From what I can tell, only Turkey does not seem to be part of this saecular current.

Whatever countertrends or flux that existed prior to these two dominant turning macroevents are being swept away. If you wish, I could dig up some of the scholars that see a religious awakening occurring region-wide in the late 20th century. Tristan probably can too.

As for Israel/Palestine, I think the conclusion to the 1948 War was the end of the Israelis' 4T -- they were on the Western current. But it was probably in the beginning or middle of a 4T for the Palestinians as the 1940's and 50's were about fundamental institutional matters in their larger ethno-cultural world. By c. 1960, secular nation-states had been established throughout the region.

This makes for some very interesting saecular clashes. One very interesting one was the Algerian War with France in a 1T but the Algerians in a 4T. And now Israel is either already in 4T mode, or more likely will be soon, but the Palestinians are still in the wake of the Islamic Resurgence and their institutional order is unraveling.

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

I believe most of the Islamic world is in an early 3T right now. To my mind there are certain localities that may have been in a different rhythm but with the world getting smaller saecular overlays are forcing those areas into synch to varying degrees. This process had been going in Europe for centuries and now the West is almost completely in synch, for example.

It is clear that there was a strong push for institiutionalizing secular nationalism throughout large swaths of that part of the world in the 1940's and 1950's -- India included. Then, around c. 1980, the "Islamic Resurgence" sprang onto the scene with a vengence in most Islamic nations (and in India a similar surge of Hindu fundamentalism ocurred), seemingly starting in Iran but becoming obvious all over the place shortly afterward from Algeria to Egypt to Palestine to Pakistan, possibly even Indonesia. From what I can tell, only Turkey does not seem to be part of this saecular current.

I have my doubts about the Indian Sub-Continent and Indonesia being on the same saeculum as the Middle East. They are matched to our, however you are right on the money

As I see it Turkey had it's awakening at the same time as rest of Middle East, Islamism emerged there as well as a force. The current events in Turkey seem very 3T.

Whatever countertrends or flux that existed prior to these two dominant turning macroevents are being swept away. If you wish, I could dig up some of the scholars that see a religious awakening occurring region-wide in the late 20th century. Tristan probably can too.

As for Israel/Palestine, I think the conclusion to the 1948 War was the end of the Israelis' 4T -- they were on the Western current. But it was probably in the beginning or middle of a 4T for the Palestinians as the 1940's and 50's were about fundamental institutional matters in their larger ethno-cultural world. By c. 1960, secular nation-states had been established throughout the region.

This makes for some very interesting saecular clashes. One very interesting one was the Algerian War with France in a 1T but the Algerians in a 4T. And now Israel is either already in 4T mode, or more likely will be soon, but the Palestinians are still in the wake of the Islamic Resurgence and their institutional order is unraveling.

I dunno enough about Israel to make a decision which saeculum they are on, I would not be surprised if they are sharing the same saeculum as rest of the Middle East. However a lot of Israeli's especially public figures grew up in the west, which complicates things.

Interesting thing about Israel is how they have conduct their military policy, before the South Lebanon war starting in 1982. There was a consensus in military policy in Israel, there was very little criticism of the occupation of the Sinai after 1967 war.

The South Lebanon war was to Israeli's was Vietnam was to USA. Which started a period of Malaise in Israel, which has run up to quite recently.

What is going on in Gaza right now - and the United States' (and Israel's) unspoken role in it - is living proof that containment and "proxy wars" work.

Of course no one is being fooled about us supporting Fatah.

Originally Posted by catfishncod

Well, if you can define away the term "civil war" in that way, I suppose this isn't a civil war. It's merely an armed struggle for power between factions within a single nation with separate territories and separate understandings of the nature of their national direction.

But that can't be a "civil war", now can it?

----

...

It could be if the Palestinians lived within a Sovereignty, but they don't as of yet. If Palestine were a Nation it could have a civil war, as it isn't allowed to control its borders it isn't a Nation but a Bantustan or (Semitestan more properly).

There already is a Palestinian nation; there's been one for 60 years in fact.

It's called Jordan.

Israel is almost certainly not on the Islamic Awakening timeline because their Crisis ended in 1948. As was pointed out, whoever was their first, modern Israel is a creation of European Jews who survived the Holocaust, which was THEIR 4T, immediately folowed by the nation-building struggle and War of 1948, after which they settled down to build their nation under the slogan Never Again. So they are more or less on the European timeline and so, by default, are the Israeli Arabs and Palestinians who were displaced - or displaced themselves, accounts vary by family, village, and individual.

I would put down money on 1948 being the turning point for anti-semitism in the West as well. Not that it ended, but when it became no longer respectable. The revelations of the concentration camps was blow #1, but when Israel reenacted our beloved underdog's victory a la David & Goliath, that put the nail in anti-semitism's coffin and American (I can't speak for European) public opinion finished its U-turn.

What is my basis for saying so? I was old enough to folow the news at the time (my dad was a political junkie) and formed my opinions then and nothing I've seen since then has changed my mind.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

It could be if the Palestinians lived within a Sovereignty, but they don't as of yet. If Palestine were a Nation it could have a civil war, as it isn't allowed to control its borders it isn't a Nation but a Bantustan or (Semitestan more properly).

Hmm. I was under the impression that Israel had relinquished control of the Egyptian-Palestinian border crossing at Rafah, but apparently it is maintaining indirect control by preventing the EU mission from crossing the Israel-Gaza border. So apparently this is still true.

Palestine can only succeed if it has reliable commercial and travel connections to the outside world. A Palestine that can trade only with Israel is a doomed prospect that can only end in revolt. So far, the Israeli Defense Forces have shown little recognition of the inevitable, i.e., that the borders of Israel are in fact the borders of Israel. Certain indefensible West Bank settlements (Ariel in particular) will have to be dismantled and the IDF withdrawn behind the barrier; the West Bank along the Jordan needs to be de-mined. Only then can Palestine be a successful concern.

Unfortunately I don't see how any agreements at all are to be conducted until the Arabs are convinced that Israel cannot be defeated by arms.

Originally Posted by Anthony '58 II

There already is a Palestinian nation; there's been one for 60 years in fact.

It's called Jordan.

That possibility closed in the "Black September" of 1970 when the Hashemites expelled Arafat et al. Jordan refuses to make further war on Israel, and therefore is shunned by the rest of the Palestinians. Jordan also refuses to take responsibility for those Palestinians that reciprocally refuse to acknowledge its right to speak for the Palestinians, a right Jordan no longer claims.

You may dislike the effective schism of the former Palestinian nation into the new nations of Palestine and Jordan, but it is an accomplished fact. I imagine the Assyrians found the division of Israel into Israel and Judah to be annoying as well.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Israel is almost certainly not on the Islamic Awakening timeline because their Crisis ended in 1948. As was pointed out, whoever was their first, modern Israel is a creation of European Jews who survived the Holocaust, which was THEIR 4T, immediately folowed by the nation-building struggle and War of 1948, after which they settled down to build their nation under the slogan Never Again. So they are more or less on the European timeline and so, by default, are the Israeli Arabs and Palestinians who were displaced - or displaced themselves, accounts vary by family, village, and individual.

The seeds of the Israeli nation were established well before then. By 1920's the seedling which would become the nation of Israel was well established.

Originally Posted by catfishncod

That possibility closed in the "Black September" of 1970 when the Hashemites expelled Arafat et al. Jordan refuses to make further war on Israel, and therefore is shunned by the rest of the Palestinians. Jordan also refuses to take responsibility for those Palestinians that reciprocally refuse to acknowledge its right to speak for the Palestinians, a right Jordan no longer claims.

You may dislike the effective schism of the former Palestinian nation into the new nations of Palestine and Jordan, but it is an accomplished fact. I imagine the Assyrians found the division of Israel into Israel and Judah to be annoying as well.

Jordan comprises the eastern 5/6ths of Palestine; of course the Arabs weren't satisfied with a mere 5/6ths of Palestine, even though arguably they should have gotten none of it after they sided with Hitler during WWII.

And why can't the "Palestinians" do to the Hashemites what the Bolsheviks did to the Romanovs?

I'm sure they could pull it off - especially if the CIA were to help them.

Then the squalid refugee camps get emptied, and they all live happily ever after.

The Palestinian conflict has just gone from bad to weird:

The Hamas-Fatah power struggle has descended into the gutter over the past few days, with both parties trading allegations about the involvement of their members in homosexual relations and adultery.

The alleged “sex scandals” are said to have occurred in the Gaza Strip, which fell into Hamas’s hands in June. Shortly after the Islamist movement wrested control of the Strip, Hamas officials began talking about “embarrassing” and “damning” documents and films that were seized inside Palestinian Authority security headquarters formerly controlled by Fatah.

According to the officials, the Fatah men had been spying on several senior PA officials, some of whom were caught on tape having homosexual intercourse.

A DVD distributed among a limited number of Hamas representatives features a former PA official having sex with another man. The disc, according to a Palestinian journalist in Gaza City, is being sold on the black market for NIS 20. ...

According to one document, entitled “A Large Number of Homosexuals,” a number of wealthy and influential figures in the Gaza Strip had formed a “gang” for practicing homosexual intercourse.

“Some of them were summoned for questioning and they admitted to having sexual intercourse with boys and adult males,” the document, dated May 12, 2005, stated.
“Some of them had individual sex, while others preferred group sex. Some of them paid money for sex, while others performed sexual intercourse with males in front of their wives.” ...

In a bid to counter the Hamas campaign, Fatah members have published details about “sex scandals” involving Hamas activists.

According to Fatah, a Hamas imam was recently caught having sex with a male minor in a mosque basement.

In another incident, according to Fatah, a senior member of Hamas’s armed wing, Izaddin Kassam, was expelled from his refugee camp after he was caught having sex with a male colleague in a vehicle. And according to a report on a Fatah-controlled Web site, a Hamas man was caught naked together with his neighbor’s wife in her bedroom.

Guess the territories really are made up of teenagers!

When I stop laughing, I may be able to make a sensible comment. In the mean time - shall we ship them Larry Craig's restroom stall? And let's see if that ancient hippie slogan actually presents two distinct alternatives.

ROFLMAO & Scaring the cats....