TO: Everyone on the fourthturning.com discussion forum

FROM: William Strauss and Neil Howe

On July 2 and again on July 3, from 9 PM to 11 PM EDT, we will be pleased to participate in a discussion on this forum thread. We can talk about turning and generational issues--whatever is of interest to those who will be online.

We invite readers to post questions on this thread. We'll try to answer as many as we can of those questions on July 2 and 3. Please use this thread only for those questions, and use other threads to talk about the subject more broadly among yourselves. We'll then use this thread for our discussion on July 2 and 3.

First, we'd like to offer our own initial comments about whether we are in fact in a Fourth Turning.

We’ve had many people ask us about whether we are in a Fourth Turning (4T), and we’ve discussed this often among ourselves. We are as yet uncertain, and we are waiting for history to make its move to confirm that we are in fact in a new turning.

There are three possibilities.

The first possibility is that the 4T has already begun—perhaps with 9/11 or Katrina—and that, having started early and with a bang, it is now unfolding very slowly. One can point to a number of 4T trends today: the gradual pullback of the culture away from “the edge,” the rise in importance of family, the new public consensus (with or without Iraq, and regardless of who wins in 2008) for an aggressive stance abroad, a tilt against privacy and toward community, and the entry of Millennials into the political discussion.

Then again, one can also point to many ongoing 3T trends: the continuing spread in income and wealth, the ongoing partisan gridlock, intense distrust in public institutions, and so on. This confirms that we are not yet experiencing what in The Fourth Turning we described as a regeneracy. However, it is quite conceivable that a 4T could unfold this way, with a long lag between the catalyst and the regeneracy, until shortly before events build to a climax toward the end. The Glorious Revolution Crisis era is one historical example of this.

The second possibility is that the 4T has not yet arrived. By the generational clock, 9/11 came quite early. A new turning typically doesn’t begin until shortly after each generation has begun to move into its next phase of life. In 2001, the first Millennials had not yet reached age 21, Gen-X showed few signs of entering midlife roles, the Boomers were still years away from retirement, and the Silent still had a very active role.

Fourth Turnings vary in their timing. Today, in 2007, we remain a bit early by the clock of the last 4T. Note these age comparisons:

1929 2007

Age of oldest Hero 28 25
Age of oldest Nomad 46 46
Age of oldest Prophet 69 64
Age of oldest Artist 86 82

The oldest Gen Xer is today as old as the oldest Lost back in 1929, but the other generations still have a few years to go. By the generational clock, the contemporary equivalent to 1929 would fall somewhere between 2007 and 2013. As we wrote in The Fourth Turning, the cycle of generations and turnings is not one of mathematical precision, and there can be wide variances in timing, with the onset of any turning.

If the 4T has yet to arrive, the current 3T would register as a longer-than-average turning. Maybe this should not surprise us since the last few prior turnings have been a bit shorter than average and turnings cannot indefinitely outpace the timing of phases of life. A long 3T may be the saeculum’s way of playing catch-up. A 4T that starts around 2010 and around 2030 would also make it likely that the Millennials turn out to be a longer-than-average generation (as was the G.I. Generation).

The third and final possibility is that this cycle will end with a 4T of unusual quiescence, along the lines of the British experience in the mid-19th Century. We believe that quiescent (or missing) 4Ts have happened more often in Europe and Asia than in America, but those other nations’ experiences confirm that a 4T can in fact happen without a “crisis.” We are open to that possibility, but we consider it unlikely.

Time will tell. Much of this will depend, of course, on how each of today’s living generations plays its script—in America and elsewhere. Will the Silent Generation (John McCain, Fred Thompson) reclaim the U.S. Presidency? Will a Gen Xer (Barack Obama) end the Boomers’ 16-year grip on the White House?

At first glance, since the Boomers are only an 18-year generation, this doesn’t seem outlandish, but when you look at the recent generational history of presidential elections, it does appear unusual. The Boomers arrived at the Presidency at a relatively early moment (50 years after the birth of their first cohort), following the unusually long hold on the Presidency by the G.I. Generation (until 69 years after the birth of their last cohort)—entirely pre-empting the Silent.

This means that if the Boomers lose in 2008, they would relinquish the White House much earlier (measuring from either their first or last birth year) than any other U.S. generation that has attained the office. The future of Boomer leadership is murky, though we suspect that a Boomer capable of assuming the true Gray Champion persona is still awaiting history sometime in our not-too-distant future.

Many questions arise here. Will a Silent candidate win the White House? Will a Silent-dominated U.S. Supreme Court become a drag on new societal courses of actions, reminiscent of what happened before the Civil War and during the Great Depression? Will Millennials assert a new civic spirit? Will the red-zone / blue-zone split deepen, or show signs of healing? With new Millennial assertions, will the culture accelerate its move toward a more upbeat, bland, civic-spirited, self-censored direction? Will Gen-X-led families of small children become even more protective than Boomer-led families have been? Will we see the emergence of a new small-child Homeland Generation, dominated by Gen-X nurturing styles?

Around the world, will Boomer leaders (Merkel, Brown, Sarkozy, Zapatero, Putin, Abe, Ahmadinejad, Netanyahu) deepen global values conflicts and culture clashes? Will the post-World War II global order be viewed as increasingly archaic, irrelevant, and in need of change? Will threats congeal into hostile actions?

The bottom line, here, is that the fourth turning is very much an historical “work-in-progress.” If we do in fact have a fourth turning, we may not know until 2015, or perhaps even later, when it actually began.

Thanks so much for the update and I look forward to participating next week.

Two questions about your post:

1. If Barack Obama is elected and plays a Grey Champion role, is it possible that the boundaries of the Boomer generation will be extended to incorporate 1961?

2. Is Ahmedinejad really a Boomer? This plays into the ongoing debate on many threads on whether Iran, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern countries are roughly on our saeculum or on a different saeculum. Many posters here place Iran/Iraq as being in 2T, with the Iranian Revolution and Iran/Iraq war as their 4T (WW I and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire was their previous 4T).

Bill & Neal,

Let me be the first to thank you for, once again, both for joining the ongoing conversation and using this forum as a tool to discuss your theory. Now getting to my questions ...

It's become obvious, at least to me, that, 4T or not, the post-9/11 war response has all the vitality of any 3T war. Neither the Afghan or Iraq Wars are fully engaged by the American people nor by their government. Apparently, neither will ever be fought to finality. Rather, an outcome will emerge that we will call victory or defeat, and that will be it. We may be in a 4T now, or enter one prior to the end of conflict and political resolution of these two wars.

Can we fight 3T wars in a 4T? If we can, to what end? If not, how will that impact the 4T itself?

BTW, my name IRL is David

Dear Distinguished Authors,

I also thank you for rejoining the Fourth Turning discussion. My one burning question is this: With America someplace on the 3T/4T cusp, where on the Saeculum do the other nations of the world lie?

I have long maintained that World War 2 was a synchronizing event. That so powerful was its historic impact upon the entire planet, the Second World War pre-empted the various saecular cycles that other countries may have previously been on, and forced most of them onto, or closer to, ours. In other words, the greater part of the world is now somewhere between mid-3T and mid-4T, no more than a half-turning ahead of, or behind, the United States.

As examples, Western Europe's High likely began a few years after ours, sometime between 1946 and '50, as the Continent slowly recovered from the massive infrastructure damage brought on by the War. Israel's High would have begun upon the creation of the Jewish State in 1948... as likely would that of their Arab neighbors. And Eastern Europe/Russia would have begun their 1T Austerity period somewhere between 1949, following the final partion of Germany and the Berlin Airlift, and 1955 with the formation of the Warsaw Pact.

However, other posters have differing opinions. There is a small but growing group here that believes world saeculae are not closely in synch, but are in fact all over the map. Many believe that the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was the Climax of a recent Soviet 4T, and that Russia today is at the peak of a High. While I don't believe this to be the case, one such poster actually lives in St. Pete, and thus cannot simply be blown off.

What is the opinion of the Authors on the issue of saecular "timelines" in different parts of the world? And how might their synchronization, or lack thereof, affect the current/approaching Fourth Turning here in the United States?

I think I speak for most of us when I say, thank you so much for this opportunity.

I don't know that I'll be able to participate July 2 or 3 (I may be on "vacation", not sure), but here are some of my own questions to mull:

• If the 4T doesn't start until ~2010, the Millennial Generation (along with the 3T) definitely will have to be extended, as the earliest Homelanders couldn't be 8 or 9 when the 4T begins (historically, the oldest of the child generation has been 3 or 4 when the next turning begins). Could we be looking at a Millie definition of, say, 1982-2005?
• What effect is the prolonged Silent elderhood having? Many Silents are still in the workforce, and God knows the 20-25% of them in national political leadership have a disproportionate share of power (Senate Majority Leader, House Speaker, Majority Leader, and Majority Whip, tons of chairmanships). Will it take a massive Silent exit from the political stage to allow a full-fledged 4T?
• Or is this a prolonged pre-Regeneracy, like the Glorious Revolution comparison you noted? If so, how long was the pre-Regeneracy period in that 4T?
• Is it possible that we are delaying the 4T not just 5 years, but a full turning, with our actions? Is the endless political squabbling, finger-pointing, and self-indulgence leading us to a situation like Mexico, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia in the 1990s when no expected 4T arose and the tensions just escalated further, darkening the mood without a Regeneracy or Climax?
• Could Iraq be at fault? Our handling of this war is utter 3T. There was high enthusiasm and low patience going in (a 3T war style as noted in the Fourth Turning book), and now the debate over the war is full of whining but not of answers or action. The status quo continues because nobody can agree on what to do next.
• Or is a 4T not necessary to resolve our problems? I believe it was Bob Butler '54 who raised the possibility that a full-fledged dramatic 4T may not be necessary. We don't have a looming revolution, civil war, or depression to kick us into action. Just a lot of bickering and some national problems which may require a new line of thinking. I am highly skeptical of this argument, as it seems to me there are plenty of things that need to be dealt with, but the underlying point that this may be an unusually graceful 4T transition is something to consider.
• Or is the generations' fault? Because of longer life expectancies and different ideas of societal roles, Silents don't yet feel old enough to retire to Sun City, Boomers don't feel old enough to lead with any kind of confidence, Xers don't feel old enough to get serious and "settle down" (I know some 40-year-olds who are still considering whether to have kids), and Millies don't feel old enough to get a job and pay their own rent.
• Or should we just chill and assume things are going the way they are meant to? It is tempting to find anomalies or problems, but as S&H pointed out above, maybe a long 3T is simply to be expected after the last 4T being only 16 years, then an 18-year 1T and a 20- or 21-year 2T.

Bill and Neil,

First, thank you for allowing us the chance to ask questions. I have just a couple , both of which dovetail into those posed already.

1. Could a prolonged 3T along with other factors (an Obama win and the still common 1946-1964 Boom definition cause some manner of prophet/nomad "hybridization" of the first wave of GenX ? (I'm fairly new to the board, but have seen a lot of discussion along these lines. )

2. It seems the "putting the adults" back in charge on E2006 was some sort of repudiation of Bush's agenda. Is it a plausible idea that since the Silent are doing a rather good job in keeping the Boom from going off the deep end is one reason for the low number of GenX'ers in public office? As an add on and feel free to ignore, are the actions of the Ohio Attorney general
a preview of coming attractions? (He's cracking down very hard on assorted housing boom/bust economic actors.) He's a '62 cohort as well.

Here's the URL for y'alls reference:

http://www.knowledgeplex.org/news/507931.html

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

However, other posters have differing opinions. There is a small but growing group here that believes world saeculae are not closely in synch, but are in fact all over the map.

I believe the authors addressed this very scenario in their book; stating that America may not be so fortunate to face a Nomad-led Nazi threat this go around like they did previously, with Hilter.

This is silly. I mean, how did these German Nomads so easily blitz their own country's Idealists, let alone the Idealist-led Reynaud France (or the Idealist Chamberlain) while the Nomad de Gaulle stood tall?

Methinks the notion that generations move history is bunk, save for all (whatever number of) generations moving in a "constellation" manner thru thurnings -- no matter what particular generational member (the so-called "gray champion" etc) happens to stand at the top on the pack at the time.

Strauss and Howe, in my opinion, have rendered at least a small service to a generation of baby boom rockers (like woke 'em up), but have injected a new poison into the civil-body politic; the poison of generational racism. It's a horrific idea they've posited; that one group of people are better or worse that another, soley based upon their birth year.

Now, that really does suck, folks.

Hi Bill and Neil.

What are your thoughts about how us Millies are using the internet for political activism? Will Millies revolutionize the institution of the Media via blogs?

What effect will the debacle in Iraq have on the 4T? Will it cause the US to adopt a anti-interventionist foreign policy similar to what the US had during the first part of the last 4T?

Hey there,

A couple of questions:

- Do you have any intention of having any of your books translated/published in other languages?

- What are your thoughts on the interactions between regions on slightly different saecular timeframes? My observations regarding Russia seem to indicate a society that has remained for at least several cycles a turning ahead of many of its neighbors; does your theory necessarily conclude that neighbors will eventually come into synch with each other? What would you propose as a reason for a sustained out-of-synch?

- There has arisen on the board a seemingly widespread contention that the Civic gen is a driver of the Crisis resolution. As I understood your theory, while the Civics are the footsoldiers of the 4T, their input into its direction is limited to picking sides that are laid out by the older generations. Please clear up, to what extent have previous Crises been resolved with ideas generated by their Civic gen?

- And on a more personal note, what would you anticipate the consequences being for people who left a country as it was sliding into its 4T, and remained on the outside through the duration to return once the Crisis was past and the 1T was underway? You've stated that a 1T society is very strongly anti-outsider; would such people -- even if native born -- be seen as outsiders for having been absent from the Crisis turning?

1. Any thoughts on the 2006 Virginia Senate Race between George ''Macaca" Allen and Jim "Combat Boots" Webb would be appreciated.

2. And since I have one, any thoughts on the difference between the generation being born and the preceeding one, Millies, would also be welcome.

Background on question 2: I have one kid that's 3.5 and one due in about a month. I recall that when younger relatives and siblings of friends were born in the 80s there was a greater emphasis on achievement, spurred on by proud Boomer parents.

Today I see a greater focus on niceness than achievement among my peers. I mean we are all proud when junior brings home a painting from school or can sing a song they learned in pre-school, but the one phrase I keep coming back to as a parent is be nice, or as my wife says in Estonian, tee ilusti (do it nicely).

I am a second wave GenXer, so I don't fit exactly into the rigid demeanor [you will go to sleep, or I will put you to sleep] of the first wavers, but I think we are sort of aiming for the same result, to not necessarily create a great generation, but a nice one.

Again, your thoughts on this would be appreciated.

Is there an increasing awareness of class in the various Generations of the Anglosphere?

Is class consciousness made manifest in culture, religion, politics, education, etc. in a Generational manner?

Do you think the end of the housing bubble means an imminent economic collapse?

Do you think the stock market is on the verge of following the housing market?

Bill and Neil:

Have been a member of this forum almost since the beginning, and some of my questions span the globe, but am definitely more concerned about issues at home than those abroad.

In what ways will the 4T, when it does arrive(and I am not sure it has because, despite downsizing and outsourcing, we have yet to see enough economic dislocation to force changes in behavior) in what ways will it test our resolve and determination?

When will the real weak links start to show or will become more obvious? IMO they are already noticeable, but so far there seems to be a lack of action and willingness to accept the status quo. There has, for example, been very little action on aiding the global warming effort by reducing dependency on the automobile despite record his gasoline prices. There also has been very little effort on attempts to try to limit excessive corporate power, which I believe we need to do. I shall hereby invite you to read and sign my petition at www.petitiononline.com/bb3838.

At what point will what is impractical and illusory be put on display, enforcing a reality check? Conversely, when what is too set in stone and not developing likely to lose effectiveness and be forced to loosen up(eg. rigid corporate structures such as those found in much of the retail world, the "one size fits all" approach)?

An extreme manifestation of the above has involved grinding to a standstill and not knowing which way to go. I believe we would like to do things to curb global warming, reduce corporate power, and narrow the rich/poor income gap, but it seems as if we don't know how to do it. This is why I believe we are still 3T. Millies definitely have not shown the hothead tenedencies Boomer did in their youth. I was hoping that they would shake up the Boomer establishment just as they shook up the GI's "grey flannel suit" establishment during their own youth. Since the oldest Millies are now 25, have they missed the chance to do this? Or could their late wave become the activists? At what point will Boomers leave their cocoons and become activist again? Seems to me that discerning between the actual and artificial is mandatory when choosing where to direct your energy.

To the authors:

First, I thank you for your willingness to engage in dialogue with us. I first read 13Gen several years ago, read The Fourth Turning in December 2005, and became a member of this forum shortly thereafter. Since then, I have shared your ideas with many friends, colleagues, and students.

I am a Gen-Xer teacher (1977 cohort) who has taught and mentored ~2000+ Millies from every conceivable demographic, at the elementary, secondary, and now postsecondary level for the past 9 years. I always wanted to be a teacher, despite considerable discouragement from peers, guidance counselors, and university advisors (the folk wisdom being that smart people shouldn't teach). I have never regretted my choice. The Millennial Generation has been a joy and a pleasure to teach, and a pleasant surprise for me (of course, I was expecting them to be like Xers!). Many, many anecdotal experiences confirm your research and theory about that generation.

My question is about what will happen to the American school system in the coming 4T and (hopefully) the 1T to come. I am working on my Ph.D in education at a prestigious research university, and expect to be finished in 2009. Very few of my professors, or the district officials that I dialogue with, would concur with what Bill Gates, Thomas L. Friedman (2005), and the New Commission On the Skills of the American Workforce (2007) assert about U.S. education -- that the current system must be completely and radically overhauled ASAP. Additionally, the inordinate amount of attention paid to the achievement gap between white, middle class students and minority/poor/second language students within the United States is masking a glaring international achievement gap between all American students and students in the rest of the developed/developing world. The reports about this international gap are growing more and more alarming by the year -- the most recent chilled me to the bone. I posit that in the 4T, the time for complacency will be over. Unfortunately, by then I fear that it will be too late.

Thus, my question. What should those of us in education be doing to best prepare the generations of the 21st century for the globalization and eventual technological automation of most 20th century workplace skills? What role will education play during the upcoming crisis era?

As an education leader-in-training, I am considering my "script" for the crisis to come. Right now, most of the Silent and Boomer gatekeepers seem to be more concerned with sensitivity than rigorous and relevant standards, willing to pay lip service to a "crisis" in education but not willing to do anything about it. Thankfully, Bill Gates, George Lucas, and other Boomer philanthropists seem to be quietly (but carefully) advocating for radical systemic change. It is my humble opinion that we need more of our best minds working on the perennial problems in my field... the field that makes all other fields possible.

Thanks.

Originally Posted by XerTeacher

To the authors:
Thus, my question. What should those of us in education be doing to best prepare the generations of the 21st century for the globalization and eventual technological automation of most 20th century workplace skills? What role will education play during the upcoming crisis era?

Thanks.

Duh, no brainer here -- the authors are qusai-Hegelians after all. To best prepare "the generations of the 21st century," we need to get back to the basics of Das Kapital. Sure, the Chinese are having a tough go at it with the younger crowd, but, come on folks, lets get with the 4T programme.

It isn't easy teaching Marxism in China these days.

"It's a big challenge," acknowledged Tao, a likable man who demonstrates remarkable patience in the face of students more interested in capitalism than "Das Kapital." The students say he isn't the problem.

Greetings gentlemen,

Thanks for corresponding with us. I too am one of the people who has joined in recent times. My name is Rick and everyone has asked most of my questions, but I do have one to add. In the civil war anomality, how important, would you say, was the development of the railroad and the telegraph in causing the anomality?

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Greetings gentlemen,

Thanks for corresponding with us. I too am one of the people who has joined in recent times. My name is Rick and everyone has asked most of my questions, but I do have one to add. In the civil war anomality, how important, would you say, was the development of the railroad and the telegraph in causing the anomality?

No doubt the next disastrous "anomality" will owe an incredible debt to the present-day education of little liberals, now grown up and posting anonymously on the internet with sweet little-minded names like herbal tea.

:roll eyes:

I know this is a pretty wide-open question, but based on what we've seen in the past several years (be this 3T or 4) and the whole saeculum at large, what do you think will be the "meat" or central issue of the coming crisis?

Already I can see a global dichotomy evolving between globalizing, capitalist, liberal democracies (led by the US) and dissident groups (socialists, islamists, and those with sour grapes like Russia). Hugo Chavez of Venezuela in particular seems to be trying to organize this somewhat, gaining allies with other Latin American countries, Iran, China, and Russia, criticizing US policy at every turn, and putting forth his own alternative trade treaty (The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas) as opposed to the FTAA. Interestingly, many of these dissident countries have large oil reserves, another thing that I KNOW will be an issue this 4T.

Is it just me, or could this dichotomy be a potential conflict for the upcoming 4T?

1. Do you find it disconcerting that after fairly easily identified generations of length 18-21 years in this saeculum, the Millennial generation seems poised to set a record for post-Civil War length?

2. You seem to be saying that we may only be able to identify this turning change in retrospect. Is this correct?

3. Many people seem to think that a hallmark of a 4T is people coming together to work on problems. With four previous 4T involving either revolution or civil war, I have never seen how this is so. It seems to me that 4Ts involve conflict first, and then, only have a victor has emerged is there a "coming together" amongst the winners to solve the problems whose solution is now made possible by the victory. What do you think?

4. Most 4T involve major warfare, often a great power coalition conflict. In the wake of the first post-nuclear generation coming to power, how likely do you think is the possibility that this 4T will not involve any major military conflict?

Distinguished Authors:

Welcome back! Thanks for setting this up. Last time I corresponded with you, I believe I was expecting my 6 1/2 year-old son (a late-Millie/early Homelander generation-to-be-determined October '00 cohort).

As you know, I'm a core Xer '67 cohort. My generation is the only one whose birthdates already line up with the last catalyst constellation. The Atari-wave and older Nintendo-wave have largely settled into parenting roles and have an intense micro-focus on children, immediate family, extended family, neighborhoods and school activities. My questions have to do with Xers and our children.

1. Is the behavior I described indicative of a 3T or 4T for a Nomad generation? Our micro-focus doesn't seem all that different from the focus and drive that Boomers had in the '80s and '90s away from the larger world and toward career, homes, kids and food. However, it differs from Boomer behavior in that it is somewhat less pleasure driven and more anxiety driven. But, then, Xers have always been a bit anxious on the inside, in spite of our slick exterior.

2. Now that most parents of children under 18 are likely Xers, would you say that a Nomad parenting style is beginning to emerge or does it take more of a painful "crisis" for the stereotypical Nomad parenting style to kick in.

3. If the Millennial generation stretches on until 2008 or 2009, will Xers really set the tone for parenting of the next Artist generation? If the 4T goes from 2010 to 2030, most of the next Artist generation will be born to Millennials, and not Xers.

4. Any other predictions for Xers?

Thank you.

BTW, I agree with the person who posted above that your writing with respect to Xers could be updated. Unfortunately, I'm starting to give up on trying to get Xers to read "Generations" (my favorite of your books) because the portions on us are dismissed as "too 90s." Not that they weren't descriptive when written, but Xers have shifted into a very different role from where we were in the 90s and, I think, many of us don't want to be reminded of our childhood or young adulthood.

Thanks again!!

Dear Sirs:

[quote=The Wonkette;202687]
"...Is Ahmedinejad really a Boomer? This plays into the ongoing debate on many threads on whether Iran, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern countries are roughly on our saeculum or on a different saeculum. Many posters here place Iran/Iraq as being in 2T, with the Iranian Revolution and Iran/Iraq war as their 4T..."

-Issues like this pop up all the time. I'd appreciate some solid "official" research from you that covers the international scene, including their generational boundaries and turnings.

Originally Posted by jamesdglick

Dear Sirs:

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

"...Is Ahmedinejad really a Boomer? This plays into the ongoing debate on many threads on whether Iran, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern countries are roughly on our saeculum or on a different saeculum. Many posters here place Iran/Iraq as being in 2T, with the Iranian Revolution and Iran/Iraq war as their 4T..."

-Issues like this pop up all the time. I'd appreciate some solid "official" research from you that covers the international scene, including their generational boundaries and turnings.

This looks like an empiricist asking the theorticians to provide data and analysis. I think that's why this site exists, at least in part.

Division of labor.

Just today I heard a report stating that traffic congestion has tripled since 1980. Yet in spite of this condition, record high gasoline prices(although they have tapered off somewhat in the last two weeks or so) we seem to be reluctant and even refuse to do anything to reduce dependency on the automobile. And it is predicted that even more people will travel over the upcoming holiday than did so last year, even though it falls midweek. Go figure!

My question is: What will it take for Americans to begin reducing auto dependency? And for how much longer will they continue to be snug in their money centric, corporate driven, auto dependent lifestyles?

Another question is: Will steps be taken during the 4T to break the stranglehold corporations have on almost every aspect of American life? I am especially concerned about the stranglehold on retail.

And will empty nester Boomers, who are now past 50 but in better health than preceding gens at that age, ever get their second wind and want to go out and kick up their heels again?

I remember Neil agreeing with me about the Middle East and North Africa being behind the West on the saeculum, with the Islamist awakening starting around 1978-79.

I've been following Middle Eastern events as of late and the mood seems identical to the USA's back in the mid 90's, the midlife Idealist generation is taking over power in some countries and new leaders like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (either a last wave Adaptive or first wave Idealist) are much more uncompromising in the previous leaders were.

How do you think the position of the Middle East being about 7-9 years into unraveling now will affect events there.

Thank you for joining the discussion. As you might expect, I have some questions.

1. Are we in a Fourth Turning? (jk, disregard that question).
2. How are the Silent adapting to their Crisis role?
3. How are the Boomers adapting to their Crisis roles?
4. What about the Xers?
5. What about the Millies?
6. Is a new gender divide appearing among Xers and Millies?
7. What do you make of the 2006 elections?
8. How are Millies changing the popular culture?
9. Are any other societies (Europe, China, Canada, India) entering Crisis?
10. Are Millies (particularly the first wave) showing signs of being more intensely interested in science, technology, and engineering than other generations?
11. What do you see for the future of race relations through the Crisis?
12. What are your thoughts on the Netroots, and of Internet-Powered politics in general?
13. From the vantage point of today, what issues seem the most urgent to solve the Crisis?
14. What is your viewpoint of "Open Source" in terms of generations and turnings?