I haven't polled this in almost a year, and attitudes may be different now. Always worth a poll and a good discussion!

We all seem to agree that the indicators are mixed, and that the attitudes of the people are way ahead of our oh-so 3T government. But I think this poll should be done regularly to see how all of us in this community are looking at things. Maybe the results were inconclusive last year, but as the 4T indicators gradually overcome the 3T indicators the question needs to be posed again.

Good grief, another one?

Oh, yawn... these WeeBee3T/4T? polls are beginning to get as tiresome as the Presidential campaign.

Originally Posted by zilch

Good grief, another one?

Oh, yawn... these WeeBee3T/4T? polls are beginning to get as tiresome as the Presidential campaign.

Oh, yawn. Zilch being a petulent malcontent again. If you don't care about the poll, don't take it! I'm trying to gauge the community's attitudes on this issue, almost a year after the last time I polled this. A lot has happened since then, and we may be just a little closer to a consensus on the issue. It's worth finding out.

Originally Posted by 1990

Oh, yawn. Zilch being a [petulant] malcontent again.

Hey, I did like the wording of your first choice: "Has already happened - 9/11, Katrina, whatever".

Emphasis mine, of course. The "whatever" could even be an irritating pimple on any "Bush sucks" Liberal's ass, and that would be enough to warrant about the same catalytic conversion of September 11, 2001. Don't you agree?

And, yes, I agree, polling the pimpled-ass class every once in a while is quite important, as it is very informative.

I think we're here, but I can't figure out what exactly caused this. It was definitely sometime between Bush's Re-election and the 2006 midterms, it was a huge shift in the electorate, and if the trend continues in 2008, we're there.

It seems like the catalyst was Katrina, but I can't see that as the definitive moment. The crisis seems to be based, at this point, more on the dissatisfaction at how we're doing in Iraq more than our structural issues.

But, by the time we get deeper into the crisis, say 2011, when the first wave of boomers (demographic boomers, not S&H boomers) start retiring, I can see all these issues being tied together under one theme: the budget.

Originally Posted by zilch

Hey, I did like the wording of your first choice: "Has already happened - 9/11, Katrina, whatever".

Emphasis mine, of course. The "whatever" could even be an irritating pimple on any "Bush sucks" Liberal's ass, and that would be enough to warrant about the same catalytic conversion of September 11, 2001. Don't you agree?

And, yes, I agree, polling the pimpled-ass class every once in a while is quite important, as it is very informative.

zilch, get off the forums if you aren't going to post anything constructive.

Perhaps there is already more consensus on this issue than before: so far the vote is overwhelmingly in favor of a previous catalyst. Last September the vote was an exact 50/50 split.

Will give the voting more time, but it looks like some people have already changed their votes from last year.

Last September it wasn't yet apparent that the Democrats were going to reverse Congress.

Or that Hillary would end up surpassing Guiliani in Presidential polls.

One of the signals of a turning is a party realignment: and it looks like that's what's happening right now.

I'll stick with my 'cascade' perspective. There have been lots of events that have been shifting people's views... E2K, Enron, September 11th, Afghanistan, Iraq and Katrina will do for a start. No single one of them would have been sufficient. Even taken all together, we still seem short of that mythic point where everyone agrees we are 4T.

I would not be at all surprised if a few more similar events occur before the mood change is blatantly recognizable. One of these might be a clear 'broke the camel's back' 'trigger event,' which would give it a special place in the history books.

But more likely the sum of the shocks we've already gone through is apt to be greater than the sum of the shocks necessary to get us to the magic or mythic 'everyone agrees we be 4T' point.

Should have had a 'don't know' option.

I am one of the holdouts who is not at all convinced we have reached the tipping point yet, and I'll explain why. First of all, there is not a widespread feeling of financial hardship which is supposedly prevalent in a 4T. Career, status and life direction have been generally highlighted(and have been for the past two decades plus) by the most dominant Boomer generation and will be for a little while longer. The mood is still one of putting extra energy into being effective and getting ahead. The going could get hard at times, perhaps fostering thoughts of retreating. However, we have pretty much stopped ourselves from taking the path of least resistance. There has definitely been no return to the "feeling groovy" personna of earlier times. And the push to get ahead has continued to push most social concerns to the back burner, although younger gens are beginning to question, albeit, IMO, sans the passion the Boomers had during their youth in the 1960's.

I think we're still in a 3T (at least from the Californian side of things) but at the same time we definitely feel due for a Turning shift; with a major election coming up in 2008 and the people elected coming to power in 2009, one of those years just feels more likely than any of the others.

Katrina and the growing realization that the Iraq War has become a debacle are the catalysts, IMO

Brian, the perception that there is no widespread feeling of financial hardship is the result of the MSM trying hard as possible to minimize it and because the problems haven't affected the upper middle class all that much yet. But, at least in my neck of the woods, most people aren't buying the media spin and manipulated economic data anymore.

Originally Posted by Silifi

I think we're here, but I can't figure out what exactly caused this. It was definitely sometime between Bush's Re-election and the 2006 midterms, it was a huge shift in the electorate, and if the trend continues in 2008, we're there.

It seems like the catalyst was Katrina, but I can't see that as the definitive moment. The crisis seems to be based, at this point, more on the dissatisfaction at how we're doing in Iraq more than our structural issues.

But, by the time we get deeper into the crisis, say 2011, when the first wave of boomers (demographic boomers, not S&H boomers) start retiring, I can see all these issues being tied together under one theme: the budget.

I think the issue with Katrina was the response to a crisis rather than the crisis itself. All of a sudden, it became blatantly obvious that the market just didn't drive the solution ... not that time. The rhetoric holding the house of cards in place seemed old and stale, and the demogaugery just stopped working like it had.

That defines a social moment in my book.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I think the issue with Katrina was the response to a crisis rather than the crisis itself. All of a sudden, it became blatantly obvious that the market just didn't drive the solution ... not that time. The rhetoric holding the house of cards in place seemed old and stale, and the demogaugery just stopped working like it had.

That defines a social moment in my book.

That's how I see it, too. 9/11 as the Crisis Catalyst, Katrina as Social Moment. The lingering of the Silent, in Congress and elsewhere, has resulted in an extended Cascade phase. Indeed, even the Regeneracy is slow in developing.

I heard a report yesterday that even chains like Wal-Mart are having problems now because toward the end of the month many of their customer base has no more money to spend. Of course, the MSM(finally learned the meaning of that term) tends to cry wolf every time consumer spending takes a hit in any bracket. It was mentioned that most are maxed out when it comes to credit and can't take on any more.

Yet we still are a society that celebrates prestige and prosperity, and that is still having an impact. Although you don't hear the phrase "conspicuous consumption" thrown around so much anymore, having the most state-of-the-art, expensive toys is still a goal for some people. In many cases an image might be constructed with words and mind games rather than true integrity. Wearing the right label or hanging with the right people isn't always what it appears.