Are there saecular rhythms (turnings and generations) at work in Latin America? Are some of these societies too bradition-bound to produce archetypal generations? Have there been Crises and Awakenings?



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Posted by: Lis Libengood
Date posted: Sat Jul 29 17:22:32 EDT 2000
Subject: Another thing...
Message:
I've gleaned from reading Krauze is the primary nature of Mexico's two completed cycles as an independent nation.

In Mexico, the Spanish rulers were hated by the natives, but their religion was absorbed and embraced. When the people of New Spain first revolted against the Spanish, it was priests of the Holy Church who organized and led the revolt.

In the aftermath, the Church became the father from and through whom all flowed to the Mexican people in their first Cycle as an independent nation. When the secular revolution came along in the next Cycle and efforts were made to separate Church rule from Civil rule, the people transferred their "worship" to El Presidente and created the institution of the PRI as a substitute for the Church. Krauze credits this substitution as a reason for Mexico's failure to find its way to true democracy.

It remains to be seen what will take the place of the overthrown PRI in the next cycle...or if Mexico will find a new path.

Posted by: Tristan Jones
Date posted: Sat Aug 12 3:03:46 EDT 2000
Subject: Rest of Latin Americia
Message:
Has anyone done the cycles in Latin Americia's other major countries notably Brazil and Agrentina. Do they same saeculum similarties to Mexico?

Posted by: Tristan Jones
Date posted: Wed Aug 16 2:18:19 EDT 2000
Subject: Peru
Message:
I watched a current affiars program on current political happenings in Peru. To me I got a picture of a crisis era enivroment, complete with heavy handed authtorian president.
Could the Mexicans and Rest of Latin Americia be on same cycle. We know that Mexico is currently in a crisis.

Posted by: Old Toby
Date posted: Sat Aug 19 3:41:26 EDT 2000
Subject: Latin American Cycles
Message:
Peru does seem like it could well be in Crisis, Colombia and Venezuala also seem to be. But Chile, Argentina, and Brazil all seem to have had their Crises in the 1970s and 80s. So does Central America, although one could also interpret the peace agreements as the end of a particularly brutal Unravelling (all order and government legitimacy being destroyed by the Awakening) and the beginning of a nation building Crisis.

Old Toby Least Known Dog on the Net

Argentina seems like in a deep 4T, it might have been in this 4T for some time and it is reaching a late regency. Argentina through the current Latin Americian saeculum, has had a crappy economic preformance. The decline of the whole country is amazing because Argentina is so much like Canada and Australia, along with it's neighbour Urugay they seem more like France, Spain or Quebec than the rest of Latin Americia.

US dollar debt and plunging currency equal Argentinian chaos

by Phil Daputa
Crikey's South American Correspondent


Crikey's South American correspondent Phil daputa has filed this amazing piece about the chaos unfolding in this supposedly sophisticated country.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A $USD141 billion debt default, five presidents in twelve days, over thirty dead in the streets and the police demonstrating their polo skills with old ladies heads in Plaza de Mayo. Sadly for Argentina, the worst is yet to come.
Duhalde will announce his economic plan tomorrow, however he will be forced to break the 1:1 peg between the US Dollar (USD) and the Argentine Peso (ARP). This will bankrupt any banks in Argentina that are not already under water, as Duhalde yesterday confirmed that he will ensure that USD deposits are to be repaid in USD. The other side of the balance sheet for banks, are loans in USD. The vast majority of these loans are either to consumers, who borrowed USD to finance their homes, or to businesses who do not export. Neither of these will be able to service USD loans once the ARP devalues sharply against the USD, as their only source of income is in ARPs. Thus the banks will be broken by paying out USDs on one side and receiving devalued ARPs, or nothing at all, on the other.

Why did banks lend USDs to consumers and businesses who only had domestic income streams and hence would not be able to repay if the peg broke? For the same reason investment banks such as Peregrine arranged a USD bond issue for an Indonesian taxi company a few months before the Indonesian rupiah went into free fall and Australian banks, notably Westpac, lent to farmers in Swiss Francs before the Australian Dollar went through one of its recurrent collapses - because their customers wanted to borrow at what appeared like to lower interest rates and the banks were unable to turn away from doing such business, even if they knew it was not in the best interests of the borrowers who did not fully understand the risks they were entering into.

Why weep for the banks Argentina? Because it is impossible to emerge from four years of recession without a payments mechanism (cheques, money transfers and credit cards) or banks to lend to those wishing to invest.

The hole will becomes larger and the street demonstrations will become worse, once Argentines understand that the largest holders of Argentine government debt are the AFJPs ? the Argentine equivalent of superannuation funds. The Federal government has defaulted on this debt and the largest province, Buenos Aires, is not far behind. Thus the life savings of all Argentines working with the formal economy (roughly 60% of the work force) have been vaporised. How many of those reading this column understand the investment policies of their superannuation fund?

Politicians are loathed by all segments of society, vilified as only being interested in collecting the largest bribe. It is worth remembering that Interpol?s Mexican office accused Dulhade?s election campaign (he is a former Governor of the Province of Buenos Aires and the losing candidate at the last Presidential election) of receiving USD 1 million from the Juarez drug cartel ? an accusation Dulhade has strongly denied.

The Dictadora and its lovely habits (picking up girls by driving your armoured jeep through town and kidnapping the prettiest woman you see) are very recent memories in Argentina. Menem did deliver on one major campaign promise during his time as President, as he successfully emasculated the Armed Forces. This, combined with the repugnance even its own officers feel for their time in power, means that a coup is unlikely for the time being.

Into the political vacuum are stepping armed gangs, which are now starting to coalesce into leftist and rightist factions. The declining days of the Weimar Republic, when Nazi and Communist thugs clashed n the streets is a grim precedent. Similar to the Weimar Republic, Argentina already has well organised gangs willing to rent themselves out to the highest bidder, in the form the football supporters.

Bust banks, bust pension funds and an uncertain political future. Should anyone outside Argentina care about this country?s descent into chaos?

Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Argentina had very similar welfare systems and economies into the 1950s. The three former British colonies continued from that point to attract migrants, who injected economic vibrancy into their economies and opened the minds of their countries to the outside world. Then from the 1980s, these three countries gradually reformed their economies and welfare structures and accepted the falling buying power of their resource and agricultural based exports, through currency devaluations. Australians travelling over the past last ten years have learnt what this means, with a particularly nasty cut in the buying power of the Australian Dollar over the past year.

Argentina turned its back on the world and apart from a burst of privatisation by Menem and the establishment of the AFJPs, did not reform. It compounded these errors by pegging the ARP to the USD and borrowing vigorously, to pay for a quality of life the country could not afford. The full vicious cycle was completed, by exports stagnating due to an uncompetitive currency and excessive regulation, which in turn bred corruption. Thus the world?s second largest beef exporter in 1993, had fallen to tenth place by 2000.

Argentines do not consider themselves South Americans. Too many times I have heard them claim that they are the Europeans of Latin America and it is their job to deliver civilization to the ?monkeys?. They are now out on the streets clamoring for a return to a quality of life they are not willing to work for and cannot understand why the world will not continue to lend them the money the want. As someone who lives amoung the monkeys in Sao Paulo, but has to travel frequently to Buenos Aires, I know which group reminds me of the Jungle Book?s King Louey and I might just lend them some matches so that they burn the temple down around them.

Young Argentines Flock to U.S. from the 28 December 2001 number of the Pacific News Service; and they'll be staying. Argentina is so over!

Perhaps these economic refugees will establish mate as a North American drink. I understand that the racier forms of ballroom dancing originated in Argentina.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tim Walker on 2002-02-18 21:19 ]</font>

The Argentinians are developing a bartering economy.

http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...199474,00.html

<font color="blue">
Tuesday, Feb. 05, 2002
Argentina: The Post-Money Economy
Barter has replaced the cash economy for many Argentines
BY PETER KATEL


Buenos Aires, the "Paris of Latin America," these days looks decidedly Third World. Of course the broad boulevards, late 19th-century buildings and teeming cafes downtown may suggest European gentility. But ten miles away, in the working-class suburb of Quilmes, merchants are hawking everything from homemade turnovers to new and used clothes, custom carpentry, haircuts and fresh produce. The shell of the old Bernalesa metal works has been turned into a massive market, whose four-foot aisles are so jammed that thousands of men, women and children can barely make their way over the dirt floor, past rickety stands of unpainted, unfinished wood ? this in a country where shopping used to mean going to the supermarket, or the mall.

Argentina's old economy may be on the verge of collapse, but this market represents a burgeoning new economy. Alberto Martinez, 50, is about to sell a pair of earrings at his costume-jewelry stand. First, though, he runs a pager-sized black-light reader over the currency tendered by the customer, to check for the watermark that guarantees authenticity. The white bill is no Argentine peso; it's something called a 'credito.' "This," he says, holding up the scrip, "is what's keeping us going."

Creditos are not money, but they have purchasing power. And in a country running out of real cash, the credito may be a currency whose time has come. In the conventional economy, a government decree allows depositors only to withdraw their salaries or pensions from banks. Their savings remain untouchable for now, and if they were in dollars, have been converted to pesos. Public employees are being paid partly or fully in unbacked bonds; and unemployment is near 20 percent. Street protests have toppled four presidents in two weeks, but Argentina's 21st-century Great Depression is deepening. And it's driving tens of thousands of people to the "National Barter Network," centered at Bernalesa. Last month alone, the network expanded from a half-million to 640,000 families. Here, and at 600 other markets, they're trading goods and services for creditos, which can then be used to purchase other goods and services. "If you don't have any money, this is the only way to survive," says Irma Gonzalez, 46, a who lost her legal secretary job three months ago and is planning a barter-market clothing business.

Nobody's going to get rich at Bernalesa, but that's not the idea. "At least I can make enough for our food," says Hugo Correnti, 41, a mechanic at an electrical motor manufacturer before he took up his new part-time career as a baker six months ago. He makes 100 creditos a month from his breads, mini-pizzas and pastries, relying on odd jobs to pay his electricity bill and other cash expenses. Carpenter Antonio Galarza, 39, jobless for two months, makes wooden boxes and medicine cabinets to supplement the $88-a-month unemployment pay he collects from his construction workers union.

Trinkets and home-bootlegged videos pull in browsers at Bernalesa, but most of the demand is for basics. Ernesto Demeter, 51, has all but abandoned his line of antiques. "I traded three chandeliers for 80 pairs of socks and 40 T-shirts, and they're moving well," he says.

Not everyone can use creditos to restock. Bakers and cabinet-makers among others, need pesos for their raw materials. But as the money economy shrinks, barter is starting to leak into the cash universe. Casilda Teran Villaroel, 22, uses creditos at the wholesale produce market where she buys the lettuce, tomatoes and garlic for her market stand. In Quilmes, the "Caruso Seguros" firm is accepting creditos for auto insurance policies. Otherwise, says manager Horacio Iraola, "we wouldn't have any business at all."

No one dreamed that Argentina would come to this. Only seven years ago, the only cloud on the horizon was creeping unemployment. Back then, the three professionals who launched the credito market were merely trying to devise a productive outlet for their jobless friends. One peso was still worth $1, and foreign firms had poured millions into the phone and water systems, betting that Argentina would reclaim its historic place as a world-class industrial and agricultural powerhouse. Now, you need 1.7 pesos to buy a dollar, and some municipal governments, including the town of Gonzales Chaves in Buenos Aires province, are accepting eggs and chickens as tax payments, using them to feed poor families. The future? "Argentina can become one big barter club," says chemist Horacio Covas, a barter network co-founder. Indeed, the only economy that's growing in Argentina right now is the prehistoric one. </font>

It's so sad. I wonder how they could get out of this mess?

The way it looks, the Argentinians are handling the crisis pretty well. This definitely indicates that it is in the Fourth Turning.

Argentinians are banding together to build a new order. Argentina ia definitely at the "social moment" phase of their Crisis.

Argentina is practicing direct democracy in the streets at this moment.

http://www.indymedia.org/front.php3?...&group=webcast

In many ways, this is looking like the mid 1930s, but without an FDR-like leader. It is possible that Argentina becomes the first post-corporate society. At this moment, Argentina is building an anarchosyndicalist economy, and the workers are taking over the factories. Well, let's see what happens.

On 2002-02-17 11:42, madscientist wrote:
The way it looks, the Argentinians are handling the crisis pretty well. This definitely indicates that it is in the Fourth Turning.

Argentinians are banding together to build a new order. Argentina ia definitely at the "social moment" phase of their Crisis.

Argentina is practicing direct democracy in the streets at this moment.

http://www.indymedia.org/front.php3?...&group=webcast

In many ways, this is looking like the mid 1930s, but without an FDR-like leader. It is possible that Argentina becomes the first post-corporate society. At this moment, Argentina is building an anarchosyndicalist economy, and the workers are taking over the factories. Well, let's see what happens.

Argentina is a strange country as Latin Americian nations go, so is Chile. Notably their culture and institutions are very European. Argentinians consider it a insult if people call them Latino's.

Economically and socially Argentina is like Italy, France and Quebec.

If it was not for the gross economic mismanagement started under Peron. Argentina would be a nation as rich as Canada or Australia right now.

On 2002-02-18 21:10, R. Gregory '67 wrote:
Correct about Argentina and Chile, although neither of those countries have been free of some of the problems which have plagued other Latin American countries (such as military dictatorship; on the other hand, Spain, Portugal, and Greece had military dictatorships right up into the 1970s.) Whether Peron is to blame is debatable; some might argue that it was the imposition of neoliberal policies by the IMF and World Bank which led to Argentina's current crisis, and not Peron's populism.

As for Argentina being in the process of building an anarchosyndicalist economy right now: As much as I would like to think that something like that would work in the long run, remember Spain and Portugal after the fall of the Franco and Salazar regimes. Anarchosyndicalist cooperatives and the like sprung up almost overnight, but they quickly gave way to more typical Western-style governments and mixed-capitalist economies. That's the criticism I would have of anarchism in general, that whether of the anarchocapitalist variety (Somolia) or the anarchosyndicalist variety (Spain), it leaves a power vacuum which is quickly filled by somebody else. Who that somebody else is, and what sort of government they have in mind, is like playing Russian Roulette.

Very true. One only needs to look at the French and Russian Revolutions, which ended in military dictatorships.

The problem with revolution is that you have to quickly implement order. The American Revolution was successful because we quickly implemented an Articles of Confederation, and we didn't have any neighbors to take advantage of the disorder brought about by the revolution. It was likely a very good thing that the American colonists allied with France and Spain, as both of these nations could've easily invaded and established rule. But then again, the American citizens were all happy gun owners, so an invasion would be far too risky. Let that be a lesson to Americans. Never waive your right to own a gun. Sure, in a 1T, 2T, or 3T, gun rights might not be needed, but in a 4T, it is necessary.

According to this article, revolution is imminent in Argentina. Right now, my eyes are fixated on this nation. Will this revolution be successful like the American Revolution, or unsuccessful like the French Revolution?

What we are looking at is a nation somewhere in 4T, between the catalyst and the climax, and likely in the regeneracy. It seems like the youth are organizing themselves into institutions reminiscent of the 1680s, the 1780s, and the 1930s. However, they are putting their institutions towards a purpose of opposition instead of compliance, and this brings to mind the 1680s.

Class warfare, at this point, seems inseparable from the Argentine Crisis. The Workers are organizing to oppose the elites of the nation. At this point, the official government is extremely powerless. At the local levels, a new order is already being built. Let's see what comes out of it.

I saw this documentary on Pichonet's supporters in Chile last night on TV. I found it interesting how the supporters of Pichonet thought about the former Chilean Dictator; they said how he saved the country from communism and becoming like Cuba.

However I found one thing, which was familiar to me as an Australian, the supporters of Pichonet are real Chilean patriots; they feel for their country and consider their nation the best on earth. They accuse their opponents (people who oppose or opposed Pichonet) of not being real Chileans and worshipping an ideology communism instead of Chile.

Here in Australia committed monarchists feel very deeply Australia and consider this nation the best country on earth. In a lot of ways they share similar views to the Chilean Pichonet supporters.

I always thought the monarchists were ashamed to be Australian and still considered themsleves British rather than Australia. However they feel proud to be Australian and they see no conflict with being Australian patriots and monarchists. They seem even more patriotic than the republicans.

They make an interesting, I think very accurate accusation against the committed Republicans who are part of the trendies in Australian society. This group dominates the media, the arts and educational life. That these people are ashamed in being Australia and see Australia as the 'arse end of the earth' they seem to worship some ideology or another country, rather than being Australians first. These people dominated the Yes campgain in the Republic referendum and had a very narrastic viewpoint in their republicanism, which hid a hatred of Australia and Australians.

It is not just the republic this group has sought to make Australia look like a very bad country a whole range of issues, treatment of illegal immigrants and Aboriginal affairs to name a few.

Considering the comparisons of Australia and Chile, Monarchists and republicans, I can't help but wonder if Australians could use some sort of catharsis. I would imagine this as a Crisis era thing.

I think Argentina is further along then we are in the Crisis but I wouldn't put them anywhere near the climax yet. I think they're just starting the regeneracy. One of the funny things about revolutions, peaceful or otherwise, is that while they get started on utopian premises they pave the way for capitalism and democracy. Socialism is a good road from which to get to free markets.
Our country's own peaceful socialist revolution in 1933 saved our own capitalist system and improved it substansially. Maybe the same is now happening in Argentina. They may need recollectivization of their economy to stabilize things for a while. I think local socialism, though, works better than the national variety. It allows for greater individual autonomy than state socialism.

Could local socialism be part of other countries' Crises? If so, in what form? And could it be long term?

In the 'Western Europe' thread of this forum, I mentioned an editorial by Pat Buchanan, the gist of which was that European Civilization is dying, and the United States had best plan on going it alone henceforth. I also promised to address what I feel to be the implications should he be right, and not merely his usually alarmist self. I have already done so, in relation to energy policy, on the 'The Future' forum, under 'Millennial Technology'. Here I shall present what I consider to be implications having even more importance in the long term.

Should Pat Buchanan be right about the slowly failing health of our European allies' societies, then our ties with Latin America become all the more important, and I don't just mean on a governmental level. I mean on all levels, Anglo-America and Latin American are going to have to put aside any grudges from the past, and come together as the two halves of a Western Civilization that would be effectively confined to this hemisphere. One step we could take in this direction would be to make Spanish our other official language (in the English-only sense of that term), and make a working ability to speak, read, and write in both Spanish and English an absolute requirement for students to graduate from high school. This would, of course, go hand in hand with giving our relations with Latin America as high a level of importance as we have ever given to our relations with Western Europe, if not even higher - and treating them as equal partners henceforth.

Europe might become Islamized in about a hundred years. Islam is growing and replacing dying Christianity there the way that Christianity grew and replaced a dying paganism in the late Roman Empire.
Western Europe may become more "Andulusianized".
Ironically, Islam may revive a dying civilization. Right now in many of those counties there are more Mosque-going Muslims than church-going Christians even though Muslims make up no more than ten percent of the population.

I think that the Western Hemishpere will become the new outpost of Wesrtern, Christianized civilization. I also think that space exploration will establish an extension of Western civilization in the heavens, though it won't be purely Western.
It will probably be done in cooperation with a by-the democratic China or Japan. Both Japan and China are embracing Westernization with a vengenance.

On 2002-03-11 10:59, JayN wrote:
Europe might become Islamized in about a hundred years. Islam is growing and replacing dying Christianity there the way that Christianity grew and replaced a dying paganism in the late Roman Empire.
Western Europe may become more "Andulusianized".
Ironically, Islam may revive a dying civilization. Right now in many of those counties there are more Mosque-going Muslims than church-going Christians even though Muslims make up no more than ten percent of the population.

I think that the Western Hemishpere will become the new outpost of Wesrtern, Christianized civilization. I also think that space exploration will establish an extension of Western civilization in the heavens, though it won't be purely Western.
It will probably be done in cooperation with a by-the democratic China or Japan. Both Japan and China are embracing Westernization with a vengenance.

China and Japan might be democratic by 2100 (the jury's still out on that one), but I seriously doubt they'll ever be 'Western'. Rather, I suspect there will be three main civilizations: Western, confined to this hemisphere; Islamic, which will have expanded to cover all of Europe, western Siberia, Africa, and southern Oceania, including Australia and New Zealand; and Far Eastern, centered on China and Japan, but including Korea, Mongolia, mainland Southeast Asia and the eastern half of Siberia, as well as the northern half of Oceania, including Hawaii. Indic Civilization will be confined to India, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, and could well be facing a fate similar to Europe by then. As for Europe, Islam won't revive their civilization. Islam will absorb it's remnants.

Keeping this focused on S & H, could you give me examples, using thier generational theory, of how Latin America might contribute to thier revlitalization of the Western Hemisphere? Ie, will Millenials in South America revive socialism after being dormant for a while as an answer to the economic stagnation many Latin countries are facing following thier privatization and deregulation of their economies?

It seems as if Latin America is a lot like the United States in the last cycle and is dealing with many of the same issues that US dealth with during the Progressive era. Will Latin Millenials then act like The GIs did?

Hi!