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Thread: Latin America - Page 2







Post#26 at 04-14-2002 12:47 PM by Stonewall Patton [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 3,857]
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Venezuela's Chavez Returns to Power, Calls for End to Bloodshed

[Linked at Bloomberg below but URL shortened to preserve T4T page width]

quote.bloomberg.com

(For info and discussion)

04/14 07:58
Venezuela's Chavez Returns to Power, Calls for End to Bloodshed
By Peter Wilson, Alex Kennedy, Patrick Gordon, and Toby Muse

Caracas, April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's Hugo Chavez called for calm and an end to bloodshed on his return to power from an island prison, two days after the country's military ousted him from the presidency.

Looking visibly shaken, Chavez landed by helicopter at the presidential palace to cheering from thousands of supporters, who yesterday seized the palace in Caracas after a day of rioting that left at least nine dead and dozens injured.

``I haven't come with hate or rancor,'' Chavez said on his return from a military cell on a Caribbean island, where he was taken after rioting by opponents on Friday that led to his ouster, 12 deaths and hundreds of injured.

``The events that brought such pain and blood should be a giant lesson,'' he said. ``I call for peace, I call for calm.''

Three years of high unemployment and crime in the country of 24 million people, the U.S.'s second-largest oil supplier, combined with a dispute over Chavez's control of the state oil company brought about his removal from power.

Chavez now faces the challenge of reuniting his country and resolving the dispute with Petroleos de Venezuela SA, which accounts for one third of the economy. That dispute spurred a nationwide strike last week that virtually paralyzed crude exports by the world's fourth-largest exporter.

Chavez said his captors didn't maltreat him, rejecting comments by his ally Brigadier General Raul Beduel who had said that Chavez required medical treatment after being beaten during his confinement.

Riots

Looting occurred Saturday in at least seven Caracas neighborhoods, according to the city's mayor. Chavez supporters blocked the highway connecting the capital with Simon Bolivar International Airport, prompting airlines to cancel flights.

Broadcasts showed crowds attacking the Radio Caracas and Venevision television stations, which largely avoided covering thousands of Chavez backers converging on the Miraflores presidential palace, where the government has its administrative offices.

``The television did itself and the Venezuelan people a great disservice by carrying out a news blackout,'' said Eric Ekvall, a political analyst in Caracas.

Members of Chavez's former government gathered at the palace too.

``Chavez is in jail, but we have Miraflores,'' said Maria Cristina Iglesias, who served as labor minister under Chavez.

Travel Warning

The U.S. embassy issued a travel alert.

``We are telling American citizens to stay home and to monitor events from there,'' said Lisa Gisvold, a spokeswoman at the U.S. embassy in Caracas. ``American citizens should cancel plans to come to Venezuela.''

Delta Airlines said its flight to Caracas from Atlanta was called back after Venezuelan civil air authorities told it to turn around. Jacqueline Demora, of the United Airlines booking desk, said that the United flight Saturday night was canceled and the one leaving Caracas this morning was also canceled.

Taxis refused to carry passengers to Simon Bolivar International Airport from the capital because of disturbances in the western neighborhood of Catia, which straddles the main highway to the airport.

``There are lots of police in Catia because there was looting this morning,'' said Josefina Veneri, who saw protesters attacking stores. ``I ran, I was scared.''

Supermarkets and stores, fearing a replay of 1989 riots and looting, closed in many neighborhoods. Hundreds were killed then as people struck out at the government on speculation it would raise bus fares after having boosted prices for many other goods and services.

Chavez, a former lieutenant colonel who led a failed coup attempt in 1992 and spent three years in jail, was elected in December 1998. He was brought back due to a groundswell in popular support against his foes, including interim President Pedro Carmona, who resigned late yesterday.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Stonewall Patton on 2002-04-14 10:50 ]</font>







Post#27 at 04-14-2002 01:27 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Ah, democracy restored just as in Haiti...but without American gunboats in Venezuela's harbors. Maybe the ineptness of the World's Last Remaining Super Power in the Middle East (unable to move either its client Sharon or the Terrorist/non-Terrorist Arafat) has caused some other benighted lands to start solving their own problems. D'ya think? Is this Progress?







Post#28 at 04-14-2002 02:03 PM by Stonewall Patton [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 3,857]
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On 2002-04-14 11:27, Virgil K. Saari wrote:

Ah, democracy restored just as in Haiti...but without American gunboats in Venezuela's harbors. Maybe the ineptness of the World's Last Remaining Super Power in the Middle East (unable to move either its client Sharon or the Terrorist/non-Terrorist Arafat) has caused some other benighted lands to start solving their own problems. D'ya think? Is this Progress?
Of course there is much talk that the US was behind Chavez' ouster since Saddam has threatened to embargo oil exports, we import an extraordinarily large proportion of our oil from Venezuela, and Chavez has been rather non-compliant with respect to our oil interests. If there is any truth to this assertion of US involvement, then Chavez' return makes the US look even more inept than the Middle Eastern examples you cite portray. Of course, Chavez just resigned from the board of the Venezuelan oil company upon resuming his leadership role. If there was US involvement, they may have gotten what they wanted anyway.







Post#29 at 04-15-2002 01:09 PM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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Chavez is Baaaacccckkkkkk!







Post#30 at 04-15-2002 01:24 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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This seems a little too coincidental. Both Argentina AND Venezuela? I would bet that the IMF has their fingerprints all over the coup.

http://www.zmag.org/content/LatinAme...lpertvenez.cfm

http://www.schnews.org.uk/archive/news345.htm
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
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Post#31 at 04-15-2002 09:30 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Chavez back? Yeah, man.

What generation is he? Could this attempted coup be the seminal 4th Turning event for Latin America? Or is this more of an Unraveling event akin to Boris Yeltsin and the tanks? Just wondering. Maybe they aren't 4T just yet there. But a lot closer nonetheless.







Post#32 at 04-19-2002 01:09 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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This part of Latin America is not only pre-4th Turning.

I think it's pre-Second Turning.

It seems like they are stuck in the High ( the Cuban version ) anyway.

Hey, socialism wasn't all bad for Cuba. You have 1950's autos, great cigars and music, and really pretty prostitutes. And the lifespan there is longer than in America.
Maybe cause they don't have McDondald's there.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/733488.asp







Post#33 at 08-01-2002 12:00 AM by alias [at joined Jul 2002 #posts 82]
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Post#34 at 08-15-2002 11:32 PM by Rain Man [at Bendigo, Australia joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,303]
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Quote Originally Posted by JayN
Chavez back? Yeah, man.

What generation is he? Could this attempted coup be the seminal 4th Turning event for Latin America? Or is this more of an Unraveling event akin to Boris Yeltsin and the tanks? Just wondering. Maybe they aren't 4T just yet there. But a lot closer nonetheless.
Latin Americia more or less is in a 4T right now, (Cuba is different). Brazil is about to elect a radical leftist as president very soon, the economic sutation in South Americia is pretty dire now right, it is turning up the quite serious do or die political conflicts that are a part of a 4T.
"If a man really wants to make a million dollars, the best way would be to start his own religion"

L. Ron Hubbard







Post#35 at 10-11-2002 02:10 PM by Vince Lamb '59 [at Irish Hills, Michigan joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,997]
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More Unrest in Venezuela

For non-profit, educational and discussion purposes only:

Million Venezuelans March in Protest

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- About a million Venezuelans marched in the capital Thursday demanding that President Hugo Chavez call early elections or a referendum on his rule -- and threatening a general strike if he didn't do so by next Wednesday.

Cries of "strike! strike!" and "not one step back!" rose up from the crowd. Venezuela's biggest labor and business groups responded to the clamor immediately, announcing an Oct. 21 strike if Chavez didn't meet Wednesday's deadline.

Chavez, whose term ends in 2007, will respond to the threatened strike by the Venezuelan Workers Confederation and the Fedecamaras business chamber during a rally Sunday, said Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel.

"We cannot accept challenges and threats. Democracy doesn't work that way," Rangel said. He noted it would take months to create a competent elections council and update voter rolls for any election.

Fedecamaras, which represents 70 percent of Venezuela's non-oil production, and the CTV labor confederation last called a general strike in April to protest Chavez's handling of the battered economy. That strike sparked a short-lived coup and virtually stopped oil production in Venezuela, a key oil supplier to the United States.

Carlos Ortega, head of the 1 million-member labor confederation, issued the ultimatum at the end of march. He didn't say how long a strike might last.

Organizers and Caracas Fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno estimated that 1 million people attended the demonstration -- the biggest since troops and Chavez supporters confronted a 600,000-strong opposition march on the presidential palace April 11.

Shooting that day killed 19 people and prompted a two-day military coup before loyalist troops restored Chavez to power.

The government deployed troops across Caracas Thursday as marchers packed the six-lane Avenida Libertador running through the heart of the city. National Guardsmen cordoned off the presidential palace and Congress, and most downtown stores were closed.

Just days ago, Chavez claimed he had uncovered another plot against his leftist government. Secret police raided the homes of several officers suspected of participating in the April coup.

A top military official offered his resignation Thursday, protesting the police raids and other alleged abuses against officers accused of subversion in April.

Navy Vice Adm. Alvaro Martin Fossa accused Defense Minister Jose Luis Prieto of persecuting suspect officers. He added that he himself had received anonymous threats.

"The most honorable thing to do is resign," said the 30-year armed forces veteran.

On Thursday, a civilian was killed in shooting between police and Chavez supporters in the central state of Guarico, said police Col. Alberto Betancourt.

Another shootout erupted in the western state of Carabobo when police dispersed Chavez supporters who used hijacked trucks to block a highway to the capital. Three civilians and one police officer were wounded, said Carabobo public security secretary Antonio Mustafd.

Citing the threat of violence, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged Venezuelans "to act with patience and moderation" and to support international efforts to broker peace talks.

Chavez said he told Annan in a telephone call that "everything is normal in Venezuela."

With no serious contender emerging from Venezuela's massive but disorganized opposition, Chavez has welcomed a possible referendum next year.

Labor and business groups believe a general strike will force Chavez to resign. But Venezuela's largest oil union, Fedepetrol, said it won't join a strike after the government agreed to a 35 percent wage hike.

The Organization of American States has warned the opposition against an indefinite strike that could destabilize one of the top four oil exporters to the United States. A strike would be the third against Chavez in less than a year.

Chavez foes assert that he's incapable of managing Venezuela's economy, which is in recession, and has driven a wedge between rich and poor. Chavez blames Venezuela's economic and political turmoil on business and labor leaders besieging him with strikes and protests. The opposition-aligned news media, he claims, downplays his accomplishments. Thursday's Caracas newspapers carried headlines such as "Elections Now!"
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Post#36 at 10-26-2002 04:32 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Oil Trumps Drug Eradication in U.S. Priorities for Colombia
25 October 2002

Summary

The Bush administration says more U.S. military aid is needed in Colombia in order to eradicate the drug trade and to defeat warring rebel and paramilitary organizations. But with oil security being more important than coca eradication in the Bush administration's list of policy priorities in Colombia, the implications are that battling the militants and protecting the oil sector will become enmeshed, with dangerous consequences for U.S. corporate and military assets in Colombia.

Analysis

The Bush administration asserts that Colombia needs a substantial boost in U.S. military assistance to help the government eradicate the illegal narcotics trade and defeat powerful rebel and paramilitary groups that finance themselves through it. In fact, Colombia's army has little chance of defeating the rebels and paramilitaries that control the Colombian drug trade without a very substantial and sustained increase in U.S. military aid.

However, the Bush administration's actions indicate that its higher priority is to protect key Colombian oil assets and to secure large rural areas believed rich in oil reserves so that U.S. energy companies can initiate large-scale exploration safely and quickly.

This order of priorities -- oil before drugs -- also suits Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez because oil accounts for 25 percent of his government's annual revenues, and steadily accelerating oil production is vital to Colombia's economic development and to Uribe's political success during his four-year term in office. Putting oil security ahead of drug eradication in the expanding U.S. military relationship with Colombia has several implications.

First, the Colombian army's offensive deployments against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN) rebel groups likely will be concentrated in areas where vital oil assets already exist, like Arauca Department, and also in unexplored areas believed to contain enormous potential oil reserves. It's estimated that Colombia has up to 37 billion barrels of oil reserves, but 80 percent of the likeliest oil-bearing regions have not been explored.

Because the FARC and ELN roam freely in these areas -- and drug cultivation also is prevalent -- oil security, drug eradication and defeating the rebels all dovetail neatly into the Uribe government's offensive strategy. However, given the Colombian government's recent admission that major new oil finds must be made within the next 18 months to keep the country from becoming a net oil importer, oil security will be the paramount consideration in deciding where to attack the FARC and ELN.

Another implication is that U.S. Special Forces advisers who are training Colombian units tasked with protecting existing oil assets likely will come under attack quickly by FARC and ELN units, given that the training will take place in rebel-infested Arauca Department. The Bush administration's assurances that U.S. military advisers will not engage in direct combat against the FARC or ELN are not credible, considering the FARC's frequent warnings that it regards all U.S. military personnel in Colombia as legitimate military targets. Based on the results of similar FARC warnings about local government officials, this means that FARC fighters are under orders to capture or kill U.S. military personnel as soon as possible.

A third implication is that both the FARC and ELN likely will intensify efforts to attack all U.S. expatriates and companies with operations in Colombia. Economic nationalism is an important element of the ideologies espoused by both rebel groups, and oil is considered Colombia's most important economic resource. As a result, U.S.-backed oil security measures and the growing presence of U.S. oil companies in Colombia likely will goad the FARC and ELN to target all U.S. assets and expatriates in Colombia much more aggressively.

Finally, although many Colombians welcome U.S. military aid, it's not clear that they fully understand the quid pro quo, which from the Bush administration's perspective, is a permanent and growing U.S. presence in the development of Colombia's oil industry.

These implications may not materialize for months, but Uribe still faces an immediate dilemma: Colombia's oil production and reserves both are falling because the FARC and ELN have discouraged new exploration by systematically targeting oil assets in isolated areas for sabotage, kidnapping and extortion. Simultaneously, the FARC and ELN have inflicted huge losses on the Colombian government in recent years by constantly sabotaging the 500-mile Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline that transports more than 100,000 barrels per day of crude oil and is jointly owned by Colombia's national oil company (Ecopetrol), Occidental Petroleum of Los Angeles and Spain's Repsol-YPF.

For instance, in 2001 the pipeline was attacked at least 170 times, costing Colombia about $500 million in lost fiscal revenues and forcing Occidental Petroleum to declare force majeure at one point when sabotage disrupted its deliveries to the United States and other markets.

Occidental Petroleum since has asked the Bush administration to help Colombia secure the pipeline, in which Occidental has a 44 percent equity stake. The response was a $94 million plan to train and equip two Colombian army brigades that have been tasked exclusively with protecting the Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline and hunting down those responsible for the disruptions.

More than a year has passed since Occidental first made its request. But in November a group of 20 U.S. Special Forces advisers will arrive in Arauca to begin training more than 4,000 Colombian soldiers in counterinsurgency warfare. Over the next two years, up to 60 Special Forces advisers at any given time will be engaged in training these brigades in Arauca and will be headquartered at a base in Saravena, which the FARC has attacked several times in recent years, according to Colombian news reports.

Besides Occidental Petroleum, other U.S. oil companies that have lobbied the U.S. administration since 1996 to expand military aid to Colombia in order to guarantee oil security in that country include Exxon-Mobil, BP, Unocal, Texaco and Phillips Petroleum, according to recent news reports. Between 1996 and 2000, these companies spent about $25 million overall in lobbying the U.S. government to help Colombia protect its oil assets from rebel attack.







Post#37 at 10-28-2002 04:12 AM by Vince Lamb '59 [at Irish Hills, Michigan joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,997]
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Silva elected in Brazil

Quote Originally Posted by Tristan Jones
Brazil is about to elect a radical leftist as president very soon, the economic sutation in South Americia is pretty dire now right, it is turning up the quite serious do or die political conflicts that are a part of a 4T.
Well, it happened, although I suspect most of you weren't looking. Here's the story from the AP--standard disclaimers apply!

SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- Former union boss Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential election runoff by a landslide Sunday, marking a historic shift to the left for Latin America's largest country.

Ruling party candidate Jose Serra conceded defeat, shortly after Silva's Workers Party had declared their candidate the winner.

"I think Brazil can play an extraordinary role in this American continent, so that we can build an effective world peace, where countries can grow economically and socially for the well-being of their people," Silva said in his victory speech, as thousands of his supporters celebrated in the streets.

A somber Serra, a former health minister backed by the outgoing government, wished Silva "good luck in leading the destiny of Brazil."

"The voters have decided that Brazil during the next four years will be governed by my rival," Serra told supporters at his campaign headquarters.

With 97 percent of the vote counted, Silva -- a former shoeshine boy who rose to become the head of a labor union -- had 61.5 percent and government-backed candidate Jose Serra had 38.5 percent, the government Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced.

Thousands of Silva supporters gathered in the streets of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, waving his party's red flag in celebration.

"This is our opportunity to consolidate our hopes for a Brazil which should be more just, and care more about the needs of the people," said Marcos Xavier, a university professor who stood amid some 1,000 Silva supporters on Sao Paulo's main avenue.

While the votes were still being counted, the White House offered its congratulations to the winner.

"The president congratulates the winner of the election and looks forward to working productively with Brazil," said press secretary Ari Fleischer, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, while returning from an economic summit in Mexico.

Silva's criticism of free-market policies is at odds with Washington. His election could complicate President Bush's goal of creating a hemispheric free-trade zone by 2005. But the administration has been careful not to criticize Silva during the campaign, aware that any comment could be seen as interference.

Silva, popularly known as "Lula," just missed a victory in the first-round election on Oct. 6, forcing a runoff against Serra, a former health minister with the ruling party.

Silva's election marks a historic shift to the left for Brazil, which has never elected a leftist president. Its last leftist leader was Joao Goulart, a vice president who assumed power in 1961 when the centrist president resigned. Goulart served 2 1/2 years before being deposed by a right-wing military coup.

Brazilians are caught between hopes that Silva will reverse rising unemployment and economic stagnation and fears that the former radical union leader could worsen the country's economic woes.

"Lula is the only who can bring about the changes that the country needs to reduce unemployment and improve the standard of living of the people," said Eloisa Marques, 38, laid off earlier this year from a drug store.

But standing next to Marques in a voting line in an industrial suburb of Sao Paulo, Waldir Conde said he preferred Serra.

"Lula doesn't have experience to govern," Conde said. "To rule a country like ours, which is dominated by the United States, it is necessary to have a lot of experience and a firm hand. Serra showed he has that."

Brazil's next president will have to pull the world's ninth-biggest economy from the brink of recession, create more jobs and try to lift nearly 50 million Brazilians from poverty.

As he voted in a school in a working class neighborhood of Sao Paulo, Silva spoke of those Brazilians, and the millions of others who live a hand-to-mouth existence.

"I want to dedicate this election to the suffering poor of our beloved Brazil," Silva said as some 200 supporters outside waved Brazilian flags and small plastic banners with the slogan "Now it is Lula."

Silva hoped to celebrate his 57th birthday, which fell on election day, with a victory, capping his rise from the son of a poor farmer to leader of Latin America's biggest and most populous nation.

He left school after the fifth grade to sell peanuts and shine shoes on the outskirts of Sao Paulo. At 14, he began working in a factory, where he lost his left pinkie finger in a machine press.

In a Sao Paulo slum, or favela, pro-Silva sentiment was prevalent.

"He was the only one -- as a metalworker union leader -- who helped the poor," said Nelson Luiz da Silva Pelotti, a 56-year-old retired metalworker.

But even in an area that is a base of support for Silva, his radical past haunted him.

"I don't like communists in my country," said Silvio Alvano, a taxi driver who lives in the slum, adding that he was voting for Serra.

Silva first ran for president in 1989 as the candidate of the Workers Party, urging landless farm workers to invade private property and calling for a default on Brazil's foreign debt, which now stands at $230 billion.

However, in the three subsequent presidential campaigns, Silva moderated his radical tone.

Silva has criticized current President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's unbridled free-market policies but is believed to be considering several fiscal conservatives as members of his economic team.

Cardoso -- who privatized many of Brazil's giant monopolies and lowered import taxes, but failed to help millions of poor Brazilians -- has led Brazil for two four-year terms. He was barred from seeking a third.
[/quote]
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Post#38 at 03-14-2003 03:13 PM by Vince Lamb '59 [at Irish Hills, Michigan joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,997]
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Patriotic Fashion in Venezuela

Looks as if they're in 4T mode, also.

Standard Fair Use disclaimers apply.

Venezuela Flag Inspires Fashion Craze


CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- If you think Americans went crazy over their flag after Sept. 11, you should come to Venezuela.

Venezuelans don't just decorate their homes with flags. They're wearing them on T-shirts, shorts, skirts, back-packs, fanny-packs -- even bikinis.

It's a fashion craze spun from the turmoil surrounding President Hugo Chavez's four-year rule, in which pro-and anti-Chavez Venezuelans are fighting to prove which side is most patriotic.

Almost every clothing store in town seems to carry items featuring the yellow-blue-and-red banner, with an arch of seven white stars in the middle. On every street in Caracas, at least one person wears some form of the flag.

Now, Venezuela's haute couture is embracing the trend. On Wednesday -- National Flag Day -- 20 local designers displayed flag-inspired gowns at an evening competition at the Melia Hotel in Caracas.

The fashion elite sipped wine while gazing at mannequins sporting gowns ranging from regal to outrageous.

There was a simple strapless A-line with layers of yellow, blue and red chiffon.

There was also a mini dress made from linked copper and bronze stars. Underneath, was a royal blue bikini. A yellow cape swept down the back, decorated with yellow, blue and red parrots.

The winning dress was to be worn by Venezuela's contestant at the 2003 Miss Universe pageant.

"It used to be cheesy to wear the flag," said designer Octavio Vasquez. "Now it's matter of pride to wear the flag, hold the flag, be the flag."

It all started when Chavez bucked a law banning national symbols at political events. During his frequent rallies, Chavez uses them all: the flag, the national anthem and images of 19th-century independence hero Simon Bolivar.

The result was a flag war. Vowing to "take back" the emblem, Venezuela's opposition turned its own marches into seas of red, blue and yellow. Opponents unfurled the banner outside their car windows, homes and office buildings.

But the power behind the fashion is Venezuela's army of street vendors. Eager to profit from the protests, hawkers got creative, selling everything from flag knapsacks to tricolor beaded jewelry.

For some, it's all a bit much. Sitting on a park bench, Jesus Flores, 80, eyes a vendor.

"Wearing the flag as a bikini isn't patriotic," he grumbles. "The flag is a symbol. We should respect it."
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Post#39 at 03-31-2003 08:40 AM by Morir [at joined Feb 2003 #posts 1,407]
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Brazil

Hi,

I am totally not qualified to say this but I will try.
Brazil has its own prophet generation. It also went through an Awakening that lasted from the start of the military dictatorship in 1964, until its collapse in 1984. The prophets in this case are fairly internationally reknowned. Paulo Coelho, the famous author, whose work teems with religious and mystical imagery. Gilberto Gil and caetano Veloso, musical pioneers and outspoken critics of the dictatorship. Lula..the new President of Brazil is one of this group. I was also learning that while Gil and Veloso, both born in 1942, were very obviously the prophets of their nations, other artists, such as Tom Ze, or Jorge Ben, born in 1936 and 1940 respectively, seem obviously part of an older generation in Brazilian music.

It is funny that Brazil has its Prophet generation as well.
It also has its Nomad generation. I read about Fernandinho Beirra Mar, a crime boss, as well as many hip hop artists who have been implicated in criminal activity. many of their hip hop artiss are involved in rival gangs and have been slain.

Hopefully they have a Millennial group that doesn't recall the dictatorship and can pick up the pieces.







Post#40 at 02-09-2005 11:46 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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IRT Prof. Quigley's Theory concerning the evolution of civilizations, in which a civilization (meaning a producing society possessing an instrument of expansion) goes through seven stages during the course of it's lifetime (though it can repeat certain stages), the question of where Latin America's own distinct civilization might be on that 'life cycle' might be of interest, especially IRT Western Civilization.

To recapitulate, the stages are as follows:

1. Mixture - a new civilization comes about through the mixture together of various component parts.

2. Gestation - the new civilization develops it's 'intrument of expansion', in an environment of apparent social stagnation.

3. Expansion - the following things begin to occur at a noticeable rate: increased production of goods, increase in population, increase in geographic extent, and increase of knowledge. This continues until the 'instrument of expansion' becomes a self-serving social institution controlled by powerful vested interests, at which point the civilization enters an...

4. Age of Conflict - which is characterized by a noticeable decrease in the rate of expansion, increased class conflict, more wars of conquest, and a rise in irrationalism. This can lead either back to another expansion, or else usually (but not always) to a...

5. Universal Empire - one state within the civilization (usually peripheral to the civilization) defeats all the others, and unites the civilization under it's rule, leading to an apparent 'golden age' of peace and relative prosperity. This 'golden age' is actually the glow of overripeness, and thus won't last much longer than a single lifetime, before the onset of...

6. Decay - a period of declining quality of life, increasing disorder, and growing delegitimation of the civilization, which leads to a growing reluctance to fight for the society, or even to support it by paying taxes. This downward spiral leads inevitably to...

7. Invasion - once the civilization is so unwilling to defend itself that it has become unable to do so, it is invaded by an outside society, and destroyed. Often, the invader is a younger and thus more powerful civilization.

Of the above, Stage 5 seems to be the least inevitable, as it is at least possible for a civilization to move from Stage 4 straight to Stage 6, as I now believe Western Civilization is doing.

Back to the question at hand (Which stage is Latin America in?), I personally believe that Latin America is a late Stage 2 Civilization. To move on to Stage 3, Latin America, like the Western World of 1100 years ago, must successfully carry out three tasks first.

1. Fashion a distinctive civilization from the components provided (In this case, Western, Native American, and African). This I believe they have successfully completed.

2. Repel or absorb outside invasion. (In this case, by the most powerful peripheral state of the Western World - the US. As the West is, IMO, a late Stage 4 or early Stage 6 civilization, my gut here leans more towards absorption.)

3. The accumulation of surplus wealth, and it's investment in new and improved ways of doing things, must reach the point of setting the 'Instrument of Expansion' into motion.

IMO, Task Two has proven to be such a monumental task that it is delaying the achievement of Task Three. How long that will remain the case will depend on the course of the coming 4T, though a Stage 2 Civilization could be expected to have much more staying power than a Stage 4/6 one, and thus a greater likelihood of eventually winning any such competition.

Again, depending on the course of the coming 4T, a Latin America by then (mid to late 21st cent.?) in early Stage 3 may have to see off a Chinese invasion. As China II, I believe, will also be in Stage 3 (though by then further along in Stage 3 - they're in early Stage 3 now), victory should go to the 'home court advantage'.







Post#41 at 02-27-2005 12:22 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Post#42 at 02-28-2005 01:28 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec
http://mparent7777.blog-city.com/read/1098039.htm
So we have Iran and now Venezuela poised to switch oil to the Euro and we have had Russia openly toying with the idea for a year or two (and getting pissed at Dubya to boot). Even if the Chinese and Japanese have no real intention of allowing the US Dollar to crash things could get out of hand with this other stuff going on and God-knows-what-else.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#43 at 02-28-2005 01:28 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tom Mazanec
http://mparent7777.blog-city.com/read/1098039.htm
So we have Iran and now Venezuela poised to switch oil to the Euro and we have had Russia openly toying with the idea for a year or two (and getting pissed at Dubya to boot). Even if the Chinese and Japanese have no real intention of allowing the US Dollar to crash things could get out of hand with this other stuff going on and God-knows-what-else.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#44 at 12-11-2005 10:11 PM by Linus [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 1,731]
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Chile may soon have its first woman president.

Can we dispense with the idea that women are ineligible for crisis-era leadership today?







Post#45 at 12-12-2005 09:58 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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??

Quote Originally Posted by Linus
Chile may soon have its first woman president.

Can we dispense with the idea that women are ineligible for crisis-era leadership today?
Can we assert that Chile is in a Crisis?







Post#46 at 12-12-2005 12:56 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Quote Originally Posted by Linus
Chile may soon have its first woman president.

Can we dispense with the idea that women are ineligible for crisis-era leadership today?
Well, a woman led England during the Armada Crisis, back in 1588. And very ably, too, I might add. :wink:
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#47 at 12-12-2005 12:58 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Re: ??

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari
Quote Originally Posted by Linus
Chile may soon have its first woman president.

Can we dispense with the idea that women are ineligible for crisis-era leadership today?
Can we assert that Chile is in a Crisis?
What is crisis-like about Chile, right now? I'm not real up on Chile current events.

Thanks.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#48 at 12-12-2005 01:44 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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- - -







Post#49 at 04-20-2006 08:22 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas
ha, does this sound familiar? From Wikipedia:

The 1964 presidential election of Christian Democrat Eduardo Frei Montalva by an absolute majority initiated a period of major reform. Under the slogan "Revolution in Liberty", the Frei administration embarked on far-reaching social and economic programs, particularly in education, housing, and agrarian reform, including rural unionization of agricultural workers. By 1967, however, Frei encountered increasing opposition from leftists, who charged that his reforms were inadequate, and from conservatives, who found them excessive.
Substitute Frei with Lyndon Baines Johnson, and it reads almost as if it were about the US.

:lol:
Here is another one that suggests political movements might be in sync between North and South America. Granted, the United States is less apt to spin off numerous parties, but the theme of disillusionment is still there.

For discussion purposes only...

Latin America's Populist Shift

Quote Originally Posted by Juan Forero for the New York Times
From Venezuela to Argentina, many of the traditional parties that built dynasties through patronage and hard-knuckle politics — but also offered stability, a clear ideology and experienced functionaries ready to govern — are disintegrating. Disillusioned by corruption and a failure to deliver prosperity, voters are increasingly captivated by new, mostly leftist movements promising to redistribute wealth, punishing traditional parties and turning political systems on their heads.

The upheaval has come as Latin Americans have grown frustrated with Washington-backed economic prescriptions like unfettered trade and privatization. The new leaders and movements they bring to power, though, threaten to create a political free-for-all that could weaken already unstable countries.

"There's a crisis in the political system in Latin America that goes hand in hand with the economic crisis," said Iván Hinojosa, a political analyst at Catholic University in Lima. "Some parties recuperate, but many do not, and in their place you have all these new, unpredictable movements."







Post#50 at 05-03-2007 06:37 AM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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Venezuela

I know this guy (born 1986) online from Venezuela. He talks about the current events in his country a fair bit. He seems to describe a country in a third turning, with a demagogue idealist leader (Chavez). At least in countries like Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Venzeuela the saeculum is matched to our own. I've only had a limited feeling on these countries, however their generations, especially the Boomer peers match our own fairly nicely.
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