Originally Posted by
Neil Howe
Thank you all again for your thoughts. They're much appreciated.
I thought you’d enjoy this wonderful column, written by Martin Snapp for the SF Bay Area papers. He puts it all better, in short compass, than just about anyone else I've seen. --Neil
***
What does the New Year have in store for us? All I know is that it'll be different from what we expect.
Remember how the future looked 12 months ago? Rudy and Hillary were shoe-ins for their parties' nominations, and the newly elected Democratic Congress was going to force Bush to bring the troops home.
Didn't quite work out that way, did it?
One of biggest mistakes we can make about the future is to assume it's going to be a continuation of the present.
I learned that from my friend, Bill Strauss.
Bill was the co-founder of the satirical group, The Capitol Steps. The Washington Post said he taught a whole generation of lawmakers to laugh at themselves.
But he was also the co-author, with Neil Howe, of my favorite book, "Generations." On the back cover of the paperback edition are three rave reviews ¬ one by Al Gore, one by Newt Gingrich, and one by me. I said it would change the world as much as Darwin's "The Origin of Species," and I still believe it.
"Generations" and the three books that followed - "13th Gen," "Fourth Turning" and "Millennials Rising" ¬ are a radically new way of looking at American history. They reveal hidden generational cycles in our past that recur over and over again.
For instance, the Baby Boomers are echoes of the self-righteous, narcissistic Transcendental Generation of the 1850s, who bungled this nation into the Civil War.
("Never vote for a Baby Boomer for president," Bill once warned me. "They're just the type to take us into a disastrous war on a matter of principle.") And if you can trace these generational cycles backward, it follows that you can also project them forward into the future. And this Bill and Neil had the audacity to do.
Now, the idea that history occurs in cycles can be hard to swallow at first because we're used to thinking of time in linear terms. We assume that the future will be like the present, only more so.
And that's pretty depressing, considering what a gloomy present we have.
But what if the linear approach is wrong? Consider: Back in the square, button-down '50s, everyone thought the '60s would be more of the same. But look what happened.
And in the '60s, when young people were shouting "Ho, ho, ho Chi Minh, NLF is gonna win," who would have predicted that the next generation of college students would be Reagan voters?
If these guys are right - and I think they are - it means that the horrible social and political unraveling we're going through is just another phase.
Unfortunately, the next phase is even worse: a full-blown crisis as dangerous as the one our parents and grandparents confrontged during the Depression and World War II.
That's the bad news. The good news is that crises can be good or bad, depending on how you handle them. The last time, America emerged stronger and more united than ever before.
But (I can hear you saying) back then America had a generation of heroes:
the so-called Greatest Generation, who manned the C.C.C. camps, beat the Nazis, outlasted the Commies and created the world we live in.
True enough. But as "Generations" reveals, there's another generation of heroes, potentially as great as the Greatest Generation, right under our noses.
It's our children, the Millennials. They are the ones who are going to save the world.
Sadly, Bill won't be here to see it. He died Dec. 18 after an 8-year battle with pancreatic cancer. He was one of the wisest, wittiest and most perceptive people I ever met
.
And the best way for me to honor his memory is to urge you to be nice to your kids.
Who knows? They could turn out to be the next Jack Kennedy, Joe DiMaggio, Walt Disney or Walter Cronkite.
And that goes for other people's kids, too.