Originally Posted by Odin

So Comedic literature is already shifting back to the Mythic mode in the form of Science Fiction?

The seeds are being sewn, but we haven't gotten there completely. After all those who engage in Science Fiction are considered a "sub-group" of society who are frequently mocked and belittled by the rest of society and called "geeks" and such. And it should be noted that not all of it is good quality. Some is extremely cheesy, campy, and gratuitous self-indulgence that requires little thought (I'm looking at you Hercules and Xena... I loved those shows as a kid, but do they capture the mythical well? Not really, it's a campy romp with an ironic look at Greek Mythology).

Though I will contend that with Millennials are another stepping stone on this shift as there are a larger amount of Millennials who self-identify as "geeks". However while there are Millennial geeks who genuinely like what they like, there are also geeks who like some of this stuff "ironically" as well (not to mention those who like things because it's "campy" which would be another term for Satire and Irony in Frye's book)--we now call those individuals amongst us as "hipsters". If we had truly returned completely to the mythic hipsters wouldn't exist. As is typical, hipsters ruin everything.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Kepi

Graham is a registered Democrat, and he's gone all over the fence with his political views. Also, one of the things I've noticed is that Americans who have experience with poverty in the third world tend to discount poverty in the 1st, though it can be just as dire. It doesn't mean they're right, but I've seen both sides of it and I definitely understand why they do it. Billy Graham was an evangelist before being a moralist, and turned down Jerry Fawell's invite to join the moral majority citing social justice concerns greater than those of morality. He also questioned literal hell, which caused Fred Phelps to leave his ministry. He's got some good mixed with the bad, for sure, but your displaced anger at Nixon isn't a good judgement on Graham.

Maybe not, but that's a long way to comparing him to Jesus, or even any other religious visionary or healer. He's just an evangelist preacher, and not an original one. Very shallow in fact. If he had social concerns I never heard him mention them in his sermons. It's come forward, give your life to Christ now.

I like Paul's letters. My personal favorite verses are Galatians 2:16-21. However, they're dependant on some format of the gospel being explained to the newly initiated before Paul's works can really make sense. So while they're very important, the necessity for a gospel, written or oral, prior to is essential.

At least some acquaintance with Christian teachings yes, since the letters were addressed to small Christian groups which Paul had organized.

It's because I've read the gospels, when I read them that's the strong impression I get. Matthew doesn't seem to expand on Mark as much as Mark seems to criticize Matthew. I've read them both repeatedly and that's what I get.

I don't get that at all.

Exactly, it was a fight to the death of the old social order and the birth of the new. Establishment of Rabbinical Judiasm is a very strange response to the destruction of the temple. I'd expect a more institutional, less spiritually driven response out of the 4T.

More than a fight to the death of an "old social order." A fight to the death of a nation and a people. They were almost wiped out. Rabbinical Judaism was an institutional response. That was a new authority, a new way of organizing. Something to fill the vaccuum of a culture almost wiped out. Very 4T.

Originally Posted by Odin

You know, I have just realized that the Ironic mode tends to repel me and I prefer to read Mythic, Romantic, and High Mimetic stories.

No love for the Low Mimetic? Or you're just indifferent to it?

Personally I like anything that's well-written and an interesting story. That's about the only thing I ask anymore that it be well-written. I'm accepting of much else as long as it's well-written and interesting.

Good to have you back. How was your break from the forum? I also have a thread that you'll like to explore that has more of Frye's examinations in it. Perhaps you've already run into it? Let me go and check. Archetypes and their Application to the Theory.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Mikebert

@Mikebert

I got your K-wave writing and I find it interesting. First a few questions:

Is your position that the K-wave measures combined with the temperments of the generations is what makes the oscillation between the social moments?

Do you view the difference between awakening and social moments to largely be style over substance, with the K-wave causing economic bottlenecks and therefore social unrest as the true driving force or do you think that the Kwave is created by the two competing, dominant archetypes (prophets, civics) with artists and nomads caught in the middle?

Does population distribution between the generations seem to matter, or is the Kwave fixed, ensuring that prophets and Civics will always be the dominant generations in times of awakening and crisis?

Also, I got a wild idea and decided to check it out. I wanted to see if 70 AD looked more like an Awakening or a Crisis based on a couple cycles later. So I went to 270 AD wiki, and it shows Rome deeply embroiled in military and economic crisis, while in Egypt St. Anthony the Great wandered into the wilderness to become an ascetic. I felt this supported my theory that Rome and Israel had perpendicular crisis and awakening points (of course, it doesn't prove it because St. Anthony the Great was in Egypt at the time, and he's just one guy (but The Desert Fathers became a group of guys), so I then went to 170. 170 was the culmination of the Marcomanni war, so I went to 166 where I saw there was also a 20 year plague (sounds like a crisis to me), but unfortunately nothing from Israel and only a papal succession in the Christian world.

So I cast my net a little wider, and it looks like you have patriarchs of the eastern orthodox church switching over, as well as a new patriarch of antioch in 169. Then in 172 Titian (an ascetic) produced a harmony of the 4 gospels. In 175 a new papal succession. 177 Marcus Aurielius takes a break from pretty much constant Roman warfare and revolt supression to persecute Christians. 178 the Montanist Herrassy was condemned. 185 St. Irenaeus declared that there are only 4 gospels. Between 187 and 190 when I stopped there were 3 new patriarchs and a new pope, and in 190 Rome burns.

It's not necessarily proof, but there's some half decent evidence that Rome was in crisis and at least the Christian Church was in awakening both near 170 and 270, which implies, to a degree that 70 would be the same arrangement.

Originally Posted by Kepi

I got your K-wave writing and I find it interesting. First a few questions:

Is your position that the K-wave measures combined with the temperaments of the generations is what makes the oscillation between the social moments?

Yes

Do you view the difference between awakening and social moments to largely be style over substance, with the K-wave causing economic bottlenecks and therefore social unrest as the true driving force or do you think that the K-wave is created by the two competing, dominant archetypes (prophets, civics) with artists and nomads caught in the middle?

The key chapter is #3. I show there that the generational constellation by itself cannot generate a sustainable cycle. It needs a helper to keep it on track. I propose that the Kondratiev cycle is this helper cycle. It serves as a pacemaker to keep the cycle going (sort of like tapping a pendulum). The turnings continue to be produced by the constellation.

The Kondratiev stress cycle operates independently of the generational constellation. For Medieval times I propose a Malthusian lagged negative feedback mechanism (I can send you a document on that too, but there’s a bit of math). The take home message for this model is that the length of a turning is twice the time it takes for a newborn to grow into a physical adult in terms of calorie consumption. This time is typically 12-15 years, and twice that is 27 years. Four time 27 years is 108 years and that would be the “natural” saeculum length in a pre-industrial agrarian population. It’s fixed by biology.

I should emphasize that these Kondratiev-assisted models apply only to the period when turnings were much longer, about 26-27 years. In those days the elder portion of the constellation was vacant because the occupants would simply be too old (between 81 and 108).

Also the generation coming of age was imprinted into Prophets or Heroes depending on whether the turning was an Awakening or Crisis. That is, the kind of turning it would be was already predetermined before the rising dominant generation was created. They obviously could not have helped make this determination before they had become the kind of generation they would be. This means there was only ONE generation in the “constellation”. A social moment when the leaders are pragmatic Nomads, willing to knock heads to get stuff done, will tend to feature an Outer-directed response, and so the mood is Crisis. A social moment when the leaders are sensitive Artists, willing to see various points of view, will tend to feature individualistic, Inner-directed responses, and so the mood is Awakening.

The nurture provided by Heroes in a Crisis is structured or even smothering and produces a generation that flowers into either Heroes or Artists depending on whether they come of age before or after the end of the Crisis social moment.. The nurture provided by Prophets during an Awakening is relaxed or even neglectful and produces a generation that flowers into either Prophets or Nomads depending on whether they come of age before or after the end of the social moment. It is the recessive generations that create history, with assistance from the helper cycle. It is the dominant generation that creates generations with help from history.

There are then TWO lagged negative feedback loops. One is the Kondratiev stress cycle. The other is generations: A recessive generation is created by history, and one K-cycle later, creates history. That is, the history of the present is created by the history of the past (there’s the lag). The nature of the recessive generation leaders is what influences the kind of history they create (there’s the feedback). This nature is opposite to the mood of the prior social moment (there’s the negative). Hence the saeculum oscillates between Inner and Outer response-generating moods with the Kondratievs providing taps at both ends to maintain the system energy .

The two cycles resonate together to produce the saeculum, and so they remain in phase. If they get knocked out of alignment, either the generations or the K-cycle is delayed until they are aligned again.

By resonance I mean that BOTH the "sparks" provided by the Kondratiev stress cycle AND the correct generation coming into leadership are needed to create the next social moment, otherwise it stays in the current (default) non social moment. For example if the stress goes up and Prophets are still in charge, then all you get is a more intense Unraveling. Example, Plague hits in 1348. This is a SUPER Kondratiev stress. But the oldest Nomads are only about 46, whereas the average age at which maximum power is wielded is around 54 (according to Horner). So the Crisis turning start is delayed until around 1355. It is only over the 1356-1383 period that Western Europe is heaving with rebellions and the period “shows up” as a social movement. Here the generations provide a corrective to the stress cycle, keeping the saeculum on track.

On the other hand, if Nomads come to power and there are no sparks, then you simply get a smoother unraveling until the sparks arrive. For example the 1570’s in England is considered part of the Armada crisis, whereas the Armada War didn’t even begin until 1585. Nomad Elizabeth did a good job of avoiding trouble in these early years. The social moment indicators (popular unrest, crime rates, immiseration of the populace) don’t show up until later. I suggest that the Armada crisis got started a bit later than 1569, and may have lasted a bit past 1594. That is, although the generation constellation was right in 1569, no sparks means continuation of the unraveling. Nevertheless, the Crisis was over before the stressful period was over because once the Nomads are out of the picture the mood in no longer a Crisis mood and you get a High, even if the High is still pretty full of turmoil (e.g. 1605 Gunpowder plot). In this example the generational constellation provides a correction to the turnings that the Kondratiev cycle would have produced, helping to keep the saeculum on track.

Does population distribution between the generations seem to matter, or is the K-wave fixed, ensuring that prophets and Civics will always be the dominant generations in times of awakening and crisis?

Prophets and Civics are defined as the generations that are coming of age during Awakenings and Crises. Nomads and Artists are defined as the generations that were too young to come of age during the social moment.

Originally Posted by Kepi

Also, I got a wild idea and decided to check it out. I wanted to see if 70 AD looked more like an Awakening or a Crisis based on a couple cycles later. So I went to 270 AD wiki, and it shows Rome deeply embroiled in military and economic crisis, while in Egypt St. Anthony the Great wandered into the wilderness to become an ascetic.

A Roman period of crisis began in 235 and ended in 284, it is called the Barrack emperors era. The 270-275 period was the regin of Aurelian who restored order, and reassembled the Empire. Had he lived we might date the end of the barrack emperor period in the 270's. But he died in 275 and disorder persisted until Diocletian (284-305) brought the empire fully under his control.

For comparsion here are the saeculae schemes I have, Kurt Horner's, Dave McGuinness's and two of mine, obviously influenced by these workers

Type	Horner	McG	Alex 1	Alex 2
A	75-95			75-95
U	95-115			95-116
C	115-134	70-102 .	76-108	116-138
H	134-153	102-125 .	108-141	138-159
A	153-172	125-150 .	141-172	159-180
U	172-191	150-180 .	172-195	180-201
C	191-210	180-205 .	195-223	201-221
H	210-229	205-235 .	223-250	221-238
A	229-248	235-260 .	250-278	238-264
U	248-267	265-290	278-324	264-290
C	267-287	290-315 .	324-360	290-315
H	287-307	315-343 .	360-400	315-340
A	307-327	343-370 .		340-365
U	327-347	370-392 .		365-390
C	347-367			390-410
H	367-387			410-425

I felt this supported my theory that Rome and Israel had perpendicular crisis and awakening points (of course, it doesn't prove it because St. Anthony the Great was in Egypt at the time, and he's just one guy (but The Desert Fathers became a group of guys), so I then went to 170. 170 was the culmination of the Marcomanni war, so I went to 166 where I saw there was also a 20 year plague (sounds like a crisis to me), but unfortunately nothing from Israel and only a papal succession in the Christian world.

So I cast my net a little wider, and it looks like you have patriarchs of the eastern orthodox church switching over, as well as a new patriarch of antioch in 169. Then in 172 Titian (an ascetic) produced a harmony of the 4 gospels. In 175 a new papal succession. 177 Marcus Aurielius takes a break from pretty much constant Roman warfare and revolt supression to persecute Christians. 178 the Montanist Heresy was condemned. 185 St. Irenaeus declared that there are only 4 gospels. Between 187 and 190 when I stopped there were 3 new patriarchs and a new pope, and in 190 Rome burns.

You have to compare the putative social moments to the periods around them Otherwise you get things like seeing Crisis in 270 when this was actually an island of respite in a 50-year period of crisis.

For reference here is the relevant period from my religious event database. I bolded the events you mentioned that are in the database. Titian is actually Tatian and he's there.

70 Gospel of Mark written
80 Gospel of Mathew written
85 Gospel of Luke written
90 Synod of Jamnia
90 Acts of the Apostles
95 Revelation written
100 Polycarp flourished
100 Pastoral Epistles
100 Gospel of John written
110 Papius flourished
124 Epistle to Diognetus
126 Apology by Quedratus
130 Aquila writes Greek Old Testament
136 Mithraism
140 Justin Martyr wrote apology
140 Valentius (Gnostic)
140 Aristo of Pella (Disputation of Papiscus and Jason)
144 Marcion's cannon rejects Old Testament
156 Montanus Movement (started sometime between 135 and 177)
166 Tatian- The Diatessaron (c 160–175)
166 Eucrates flourished
167 Eleutherus recieves baptism request from British king
170 Alexander generates mystery spectacle with snake Glycon
170 Rain sent to aid Roman legions after prayer
170 Dionysus of Corinth flourished
170 Hegesippus flourished
175 Epistule Apolornum
177 Ireanus flourished
179 Bardesanes converted (Gnostic)
181 Clement flourished
189 Monarchian controversy
191 Julius Africanus flourished
200 Tertullian converts to Christianity in 185, becomes Montanist
201 Hippolytus flourished
211 Apollonius flourishes (opponent of Montanism)
216 Origen flourished
220 Elagabalus intrdouces Syrian sun god Sol to Rome
231 First Christian church
242 Manchiean Heresey
244 Plotinius opens school in Rome
251 Novatianism Heresy
253 Cyprian (beginnings of Donatist schism)
259 Dionysius of Alexandria flourished
260 Adoptionism
261 Paul the Hermit flourished
268 Anitoch Synod (Logos heresy)
271 Lactantius flourished
281 Helena flourished
281 Myron flourished
282 Anthony the Abbot flourished
301 Spridon flourished

Here is a portion of my unrest event database

70 Revolt of the Jews, Jerusalem destroyed
75 Helvidius Priscus, champion of senatorial independence exiled and later executed
79 Marcellus Eprius and A. Alienus Caecina condemned by Titus for conspiracy
79 Mt. Vesuvius erupts, Pompeii buried
80 Both fire and plague cause problems in Rome
85 Oppius Sabinus killed by invading Dacians launching First Dacian War
89 War with the Chatti
89 Revolt of Saturnius
90 Emperor Domitian exiles Epictetus and several other philosophers.
93 Domitian persecution of Xtians
97 Mutiny of Praetorian Guard
116 Revolts against the Romans in southern Mesopotamia.
117 Jewish Revolt
132 Jewish revolt
158 A rebellion in Dacia is suppressed
162 The west German tribe of the Chatti try to take over Upper Germany, but are forced back by the Romans.
164 Rome-Parthia War (161-166)
166 Great Plague
172 1^st Marcomannic war (168-176)
175 Revolt of Avidius Cassius
179 2^nd Marcomanni war (177-182)
183 Plot against Commodus
184 Lucius Artorius Castus, commander of a detachment of Sarmatian conscripts stationed in Britain, led his troops to Gaul to quell a rebellion.
193 Civil War, Defeat of Didius Julianus
194 Defeat of Pescinnius Niger
197 Defeat of Claudius Albinus
198 Parthian-Roman War
205 Saturinius reveals plot agains Severus
211 Geta murdered in power struggle
212 Universal citizenship
214 Parthian war
215 Rioting in Alexandria
217 Parthian war
221 Army revolt against Elagabalus
230 Persian-Roman War
238 Civil War Pupienius/Balbinus/Gordian III
238 Revolt in Africa
238 Goths invade Empire
240 Sabinianus Revolt
245 Carpi cross Danube
247 Goths cross Danube
248 Civil War Iotapinaus/Pacatinianus
249 Persecution of Xtians
250 Revolt of Licninianus
251 Plague
251 Goth invasion
253 Aemilianus' Revolt (successful)
256 Franks cross Rhine
257 Goths invade Asia Minor
258 Alemani In Italy
260 Civil War, Gauls breaks off
261 Multiple revolts
262 Temple of Artemis at Ephesus destroyed by Goths
272 Civil War
267 Goths sack Athens
270 Aurelian builds wall around Rome to protect from barbarian attack
271 Zenobia's Revolt
276 Goths in Pontus
276 Probus seizes power
280 Civil War
285 Peasant revolt in Gaul and Spain
286 Revolt of Carausius
297 Revolt in Eqypt
297 Persian invasion
300 Diocletian issues Edict of Prices

Those 166-172 wars do seem to fall into the same pattern of 4T as the Jewish war (and in general, the events of Nero's reign). I thought of that too, although you list the 166-172 period as late unravelling (like our 9-11, WWI). On the other hand, it is tough to see any period after Marcus Aurelius as a first turning; things were so chaotic in the late second and third century. But perhaps Diocletian and/or Constantine's reign in the next cycle.

One of the problems with trying to do turnings from so long ago is the lack of informaiton about the economic, social and cultural aspects of life. Most of the history is political history. There is a good deal of religious history too. The lists of events provide a source of things to search on and so flesh out the story. This abundance of informaiton does help because its pretty much a jumble of wars, plots and theological doctrinal arguments. It is difficult for a modern like myself to wrap my brains aorund much of what was going on then. THis is why I suggested looking at the medieval turnings. First there is a lot more data on economic, social and cultural life. Secondly the relgious issues are easier for a modern to comprehend. Also one cna made direct comparisons with similar things in the known turnings scheme. For example, on another thread Chas sees an early 13th century crisis when looking at political history:

The obvious 4T conflict which created the Magna Carta is not even mentioned in Shakespeare's play, instead the consequences of Geoffrey's death are what drive the latter part of the play and is seen as being the major issue.

I think a good case can be made for an Awakening in the early 13^th century, more or less in agreement with McGuinness’s dates of 1204-1231. My rationale follows:

A Strauss and Howe Awakening is short for Spiritual Awakening, a concept they developed from the ideas proposed by William McLoughlin in his book Revivals, Awakenings and Reform. McLoughlin defines awakenings as ”periods of cultural revitalization caused by a crisis in beliefs and values that produces a reorientation in those values and beliefs”. The classic example is the Reformation which was a crisis for the Christian church arising from dissatisfaction with the way Christianity was being practiced. Multiple religious movements that addressed some of these deficiencies were spawned over a short space of time and spread all over Western Europe:

1517 Lutherans
1521 Anabaptists
1523 Reformed
1529 Hutterites
1534 Anglicans
1534 Calvinism
1536 Mennonites
1541 Scottish Reformation

A similar thing happened in the early 13^th century with the rise of the mendicant orders:

1193 Trinitarian Order (France)
1209 Franciscans (Italy)
c1210 Carmelites (Palestine)
1215 Dominicans (Spain)
1218 Mercedarians (Spain)
1233 Servites (Italy)

It would appear that the early 13^th century probably contained a spiritual Awakening reflecting a crisis in beliefs and values of the Christian church that produced a reorientation in those values and beliefs. New religious movements spawned and spread all over Western Europe as the Protestant movements would three centuries later.

The issue was similar to the issue in the Reformation, namely a disconnect between what the Gospels said Christ was about and what the Christian church was about. Before this time, a person seeking a religious life would join a cloistered monastery, where he would work in the fields or craft shops for the support of the monastery. The institution would be governed by an abbot who often lived and functioned much like a member of the secular nobility (in fact they often came from such a background). In contrast, these new orders went about amongst the people. They still lived apart in the sense that they lived according to a strict rule, just like the older monastic orders, but they were active in the world, demonstrating the Gospel through their deeds. It was a more authentic way of living the Christian life, and apparently more spiritually fulfilling given their rapid growth.

@ Mikebert -

Another, random, question - What is the deal with the super jump in spiritual activity and drop in crime after 1980-2000... It didn't look like it conformed with the K wave to me.

Also, have you plotted a freedom-progress graph with the k-wave oscilation through it?

Originally Posted by Kepi

Graham is a registered Democrat, and he's gone all over the fence with his political views. Also, one of the things I've noticed is that Americans who have experience with poverty in the third world tend to discount poverty in the 1st, though it can be just as dire. It doesn't mean they're right, but I've seen both sides of it and I definitely understand why they do it. Billy Graham was an evangelist before being a moralist, and turned down Jerry Fawell's invite to join the moral majority citing social justice concerns greater than those of morality. He also questioned literal hell, which caused Fred Phelps to leave his ministry. He's got some good mixed with the bad, for sure, but your displaced anger at Nixon isn't a good judgement on Graham.

Billy Graham is a pretty decent guy, it's his son Franklin Graham who is an asshat.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

No love for the Low Mimetic? Or you're just indifferent to it?

Personally I like anything that's well-written and an interesting story. That's about the only thing I ask anymore that it be well-written. I'm accepting of much else as long as it's well-written and interesting.

Good to have you back. How was your break from the forum? I also have a thread that you'll like to explore that has more of Frye's examinations in it. Perhaps you've already run into it? Let me go and check. Archetypes and their Application to the Theory.

~Chas'88

With Low Mimetic it depends on how good the plot is. Of Mice And Men and To Kill A Mockingbird would be an examples of Low Mimetic tragedy and comedy, respectively, correct?

I need to take the time to read all the stuff you posted in that thread, I tried last night, but I was too tired.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

A Roman period of crisis began in 235 and ended in 284, it is called the Barrack emperors era. The 270-275 period was the regin of Aurelian who restored order, and reassembled the Empire. Had he lived we might date the end of the barrack emperor period in the 270's. But he died in 275 and disorder persisted until Diocletian (284-305) brought the empire fully under his control.

For comparsion here are the saeculae schemes I have, Kurt Horner's, Dave McGuinness's and two of mine, obviously influenced by these workers

Type	Horner	McG	Alex 1	Alex 2
A	75-95			75-95
U	95-115			95-116
C	115-134	70-102 .	76-108	116-138
H	134-153	102-125 .	108-141	138-159
A	153-172	125-150 .	141-172	159-180
U	172-191	150-180 .	172-195	180-201
C	191-210	180-205 .	195-223	201-221
H	210-229	205-235 .	223-250	221-238
A	229-248	235-260 .	250-278	238-264
U	248-267	265-290	278-324	264-290
C	267-287	290-315 .	324-360	290-315
H	287-307	315-343 .	360-400	315-340
A	307-327	343-370 .		340-365
U	327-347	370-392 .		365-390
C	347-367			390-410
H	367-387			410-425

You have to compare the putative social moments to the periods around them Otherwise you get things like seeing Crisis in 270 when this was actually an island of respite in a 50-year period of crisis.

For reference here is the relevant period from my religious event database. I bolded the events you mentioned that are in the database. Titian is actually Tatian and he's there.

70 Gospel of Mark written
80 Gospel of Mathew written
85 Gospel of Luke written
90 Synod of Jamnia
90 Acts of the Apostles
95 Revelation written
100 Polycarp flourished
100 Pastoral Epistles
100 Gospel of John written
110 Papius flourished
124 Epistle to Diognetus
126 Apology by Quedratus
130 Aquila writes Greek Old Testament
136 Mithraism
140 Justin Martyr wrote apology
140 Valentius (Gnostic)
140 Aristo of Pella (Disputation of Papiscus and Jason)
144 Marcion's cannon rejects Old Testament
156 Montanus Movement (started sometime between 135 and 177)
166 Tatian- The Diatessaron (c 160–175)
166 Eucrates flourished
167 Eleutherus recieves baptism request from British king
170 Alexander generates mystery spectacle with snake Glycon
170 Rain sent to aid Roman legions after prayer
170 Dionysus of Corinth flourished
170 Hegesippus flourished
175 Epistule Apolornum
177 Ireanus flourished
179 Bardesanes converted (Gnostic)
181 Clement flourished
189 Monarchian controversy
191 Julius Africanus flourished
200 Tertullian converts to Christianity in 185, becomes Montanist
201 Hippolytus flourished
211 Apollonius flourishes (opponent of Montanism)
216 Origen flourished
220 Elagabalus intrdouces Syrian sun god Sol to Rome
231 First Christian church
242 Manchiean Heresey
244 Plotinius opens school in Rome
251 Novatianism Heresy
253 Cyprian (beginnings of Donatist schism)
259 Dionysius of Alexandria flourished
260 Adoptionism
261 Paul the Hermit flourished
268 Anitoch Synod (Logos heresy)
271 Lactantius flourished
281 Helena flourished
281 Myron flourished
282 Anthony the Abbot flourished
301 Spridon flourished

I've been reading the newest book by THE go-to guy on Late Antiquity, Peter Brown's Through The Eye of A Needle, and I have been trying to figure out the turnings of the period covered by the book, AD 350-550. What are your thought's Mike? In particular I am trying to figure out the archetypes of Jerome, Augustine, Pelagius, and Salvian. Augustine comes across as an institution-building Civic (and his criticism of Donatism strikes me as a Civic criticism of the puritanical attitudes of the previous Prophet generation), while Salvian comes across as very much a Prophet screaming angry polemics about the ungodliness of the dying empire.

This seems to fit your second timeline.

Originally Posted by Odin

With Low Mimetic it depends on how good the plot is. Of Mice And Men and To Kill A Mockingbird would be an examples of Low Mimetic tragedy and comedy, respectively, correct?

Low Mimetic would be about the Bourgeoisie, Odin. People who live in their parlors, drawing rooms, or living rooms. Families who have a business that they own or manage. Anyone lower starts getting into the area of the era of Irony.

Low Mimetic Comedy would be more Jane Austen (Pride & Prejudice) & the classical example would be Menander (Dyskolos aka The Grouch). Very often Cinderella-type stories live here.

Low Mimetic Tragedy would be more often found in Henrik Ibsen (Ghosts, A Doll's House). Frequently the theme about the disintegration of a family or a family falling apart is what this stage is often about. Modern films about divorce would live here if they made more of the tragedy of the situation and Silent & Xer sarcasm didn't make them so chock full of satire with that sardonic look on life,.

You'll see Of Mice and Men mentioned in the other thread, under the world of Satire & Irony.

I need to take the time to read all the stuff you posted in that thread, I tried last night, but I was too tired.

Take your time. I just thought you might be interested.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Kepi

@ Mikebert -
Another, random, question - What is the deal with the super jump in spiritual activity and drop in crime after 1980-2000... It didn't look like it conformed with the K wave to me.

In recent times there has been a decline in crime since around 1990. This was would be roughly comparable to the 1865-1879 and 1925-1935 periods in the last two K-waves. Crime in America dropped all through the 1864-1896 Kondratiev downwave and remained at low levels into the next upwave. Crime also fell over the 1929-1946 late downwave (K-winter) winter and did not start to rise untl around 1955 in the early upwave (K-spring) period. So this pattern actually does roughly conform to the recent K-waves.

They do not conform to the K-stress model, because crime is no longer a stress-response marker. At one time crime was an indication of hard times. Here are crime rates reported in Norfolk over the 1300-1348 period (Barbara Hanawalt, Crime and Conflict in English Communities, Cambridge MA, 1979, p 243-79) that contained the Great Famine, a time of strong Kondratiev stress centered on the 1315-1322 period (more details in the doucument I sent you)

Year	# Crimes	Year	# Crimes
1300-04 .	45	1325-29	104
1305-09	49	1330-34	54
1310-14	62	1335-39	30
1315-19	184	1340-44	44
1320-24	146	1345-38	58

You can clearly see the spike duing the peak stress period.

Since the early 20th century criminalogists have noted that crime rises with prosperity. When times get tough economically, crime rates tend to not rise or even fall. The old pattern no longer holds.

Also, have you plotted a freedom-progress graph with the k-wave oscilation through it?

To "plot" freedom-progress, assumes one can measure the levels of "freedom" and "progress" over time. I have no idea how to do this.

Originally Posted by Odin

I've been reading the newest book by THE go-to guy on Late Antiquity, Peter Brown's Through The Eye of A Needle, and I have been trying to figure out the turnings of the period covered by the book, AD 350-550. What are your thought's Mike? ....
This seems to fit your second timeline.

Well that's the issue. If you get enough timelines, what everyone comes up with is bound to fit one of them. The fact that multiple timelines exist says that our turning detection tools are inadequate. My own take is that if you consider all the major aspects of life only one saeculum will emerge that most everyone will see as obvious. You get into problems when you only consider one aspect, e.g. just politics, or just religion. There is more to life than the wrangling of political elites or the arguments between religious philosophers. Trends in the economy, in morals & the social order, and in art & science, are probably just as important as trends in politics and religious doctrine. It is hard to get a handle on this for the first millennium AD because we have very little information on economic and social/moral trends. And even when we do have a lot of information, as we do for politics and religious doctrine, it is hard to understand it. What were the Marcomannic wars really about? What was the German point of view? Why was the Empire less capable of handling ambitious generals in the third century than in the fourth, when the Empire's strength relative to external nations in the 4th century was less? What did these ambitious 3rd century men think that their 4th century counterparts apparently did not?

Much of the stuff about doctrine seems like the filoque controversy about whether the holy spirit proceeds from the Son or through the Son. As a modern I go huh, why's this a big deal?

I find it more fruitful to consider the more recent Medieval people, whose concerns are similar enough to ours today that I can wrap my head around them. For example, above I posted a bit on a proposed Mendicant awakening that resembles in some ways the Protestant awakening. I can understand the Protestants problems with the Church and the mendicants perception of inauthenticity of existing religious life, in ways that I cannot understand the filoque controversy. Also we have economic and financial information for Medieval times that does not exist for the earlier periods so we know much more about material life (an important concern for most people). For example if you go to the table in this post you will see two interesting tendencies. I show the late Medieval period broken up by turnings using Dave McGuiness's scheme. During awakening and crisis turnings price stress (a measure of hard economic times) is high, while in the other turnings it is low. Also look at the construction info. There is more construction of big projects during the High and Unraveling turnings (i.e. when times are good) than when times are bad. These differences are statistically significant, meaning they are probably reflect a real thing.

Now consider the Awakening one saeculum after the Mendicant Awakening (ca. 1204-32), the one in the early 14th century (ca. 1305-1328). During this period, bad economic times are known to have been a real thing: roughly 10% of the population died of starvation during the Great Famine (1315-22) because times were so bad.

Members of some of these mendicant orders (e.g. Franciscans) became critical of how Church elites lived lives of luxury that seemed to them to not be an authentic representation of what Christ and Christianity was about. That they were gluttons when good Christians were dying of hunger did not help matters. I don't believe anyone actually objected to any explicit policies of the church, there was simply an increased sense that something had gone wrong, something that could not be remedied by starting new, more authentic, religious orders (the Franciscans were already living lives of voluntary poverty that met the authenticity requirement, the question was whether the Church was).

It was a more pointed take on the inauthenticity of Christian life as represented by the Church. Few reached the conclusion that actual reform was needed, but this would come. It eventually culminated in the Reformation two saecula later. Here I am suggesting a theme for a broader multi-saecula trend that is recognizable to my modern eyes. I suspect similar themes were operative in Roman times too, but they are simply opaque to me.

This is why I would prefer to discuss the medieval saeculum, when things make more sense and there is more information about other aspects of life.

Whether you consider there is some kind of causal link or not, according to the fractal/holographic principle of as above, so below, the planets can be a time index to waves going on. These cycles have some relevance to the waves being discussed here.

Jupiter-Saturn conjunction every 20 years indicate the affairs of the political-economy and the establishment. Two cycles = 40 years. Two of them in turn are roughly equivalent to the saeculum, and to the Uranus cycle around the Sun of 84 years. Four of them are roughly equivalent of Neptune's cycle of 164-plus years, and Uranus' alignment with Neptune every 171 years.

The 40-year cycle is linked to the economic cycles of modern times. This is also an example of how such cycles only occur in modern times, because there was no such thing as economic boom and bust cycles before industrial capitalism and government responses to it reached a certain level. Before that we can still see Jupiter and Saturn conjunctions having an impact on dynasty shifts. But in modern times we can see times of instability and depression in the 1850s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s and 2010s. The 2050s and 2090s would fit this pattern in the future.

We also see a pattern of crisis-driven industrial revolutions, which may follow the worst depression periods. The 1780s are seen by historians as the take-off decade for the first great industrial revolution in Britain and the low countries. In the 1860s the civil war drove industrial expansion in the Northern USA, and the 1850s and 60s were times of industrial expansion in Europe and the USA. In the 1940s World War Two also drove industrial expansion. That's why I see a "green" post-industrial takeoff in the late 2010s and 2020s, even before our 4T ends.

Late-awakening/early 3T booms can also be seen according to the 40 years cycle. The boom of the 1980s fits into this, although the benefits were not widely shared. Such was also the case in the 1900s. There was also financial panics exactly 80 years apart, in 1907 and 1987, which showed the narrow basis for the boom, but which did not cause depression. I don't know if the 1820s fits into this, but it seems to have been a time of steady expansion.

The 1790s, 1830s, 1870s, 1910s, 1950s and 1990s are relatively good periods of industrial expansion, during first and third turnings, although there was a depression in the mid-1870s, and a panic in 1837. I attributed the 1873 crash to Neptune encountering earth by entering Taurus in 1874, something which it also did in 1929 (Virgo). In 1982-83 a severe recession was prolonged under Reagan, not long before Neptune entered earth-sign Capricorn in 1984. We can expect the 2030s and 2070s to fall into this expansive pattern, if our modern economy survives in the age of climate change. The 2060s could be the next late-awakening boom, with a follow-up expansive era in the 2070s. If this boom is another one that is not widely shared, we could expect another panic in 2067, as well as a severe depression in the 2090s. Around 2038-2039 there could be a depression or severe recession as well (Neptune entering Taurus).

The 171-year Uranus and Neptune cycle indicates a grand cycle in religion, world order and international affairs. What has dawned on me today is that religion and world order are linked in this cycle, as if shifts in the world order at these times prepare the way for religious power, and/or are affected by religious powers. We can see this in Western history with Christianity and Islam, and it is especially relevant to the Jewish-Roman War we have been discussing.

The international furniture and imperial order is shifted around at the times of conjunctions. We saw this in 1815-1820 when Napoleon was defeated and the Congress of Vienna established the Concert of Europe and the Holy Alliance in 1815, which proceeded to stamp out revolutions in 1820-21 during the conjunction. A conjunction also accompanied the Treaties of Westphalia which ended the Thirty Years War. A new era in international relations followed, and we saw seeds of future problems. For example, in 1821 the Greek Revolution broke out which the Holy Alliance could not handle because the Orthodox Tsar supported the revolution. I used this cycle to predict a great shift in world order in the early 1990s. It came to be entitled "the new world order." Huge numbers of nations were founded in this period after the fall of the Soviet empire, as was also the case around 1821 because of the liberation of Latin America from the kings of Iberia, which had suffered revolutions in 1820-21 that were snuffed out by the Holy Alliance.

I also predicted on this basis that the early 1990s would see another war in the Balkans and Bosnia. A definite pattern can be seen here. The War of Austrian Succession happened as Uranus opposed Neptune in the 1740s. In 1821, at the stroke of the conjunction, the Greek Revolution exploded, which disrupted imperial power in the same region. In 1827 Britain, France and Russia joined an alliance to defeat the Turks and support the Greeks. The same three powers protected Serbia in 1914, which arose because of the Bosnian crisis of 1908, when Uranus opposed Neptune. In the early 1990s during the following conjunction another Bosnian War against Serbian aggression broke out in the wake of the Yugoslavia break-up. NATO joined to bring this to a close in 1995, and again in 1998 after Serbian aggression in Kosovo.

This is an area of the world that is affected by the Islam-Christian conflict as well as the Catholic-Orthodox split. So we see religion involved in it. Uranus-Neptune conjunctions correspond to the start of major religions, according to an almost-600 year cycle that is also related to solar eclipses and the other outer planets. Many religions were started, or their founders were born, near the time of the 575 BC alignment, which also involved Pluto and Saturn. In 25 AD an opposition occurred, which also involved Jupiter and Saturn closely in square to each planet in a great cross (symbol of Christ's crucifixion which followed about 3 years later). 25 AD was likely the start of Jesus' mission, since he was born when Jupiter and Saturn joined in Pisces in 6 BC. In 624-625 AD another conjunction of Uranus-Neptune occured, which was also joined by the other two planets. This was the time when Islam was being established. We also saw the birth of major new religions, or the founders of them, during the conjunction of 1820-21, such as the Mormons, Baha'i Faith and Christian Science as well as Marxism. There was also a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction at that time.

Between the conjunctions and oppositions of Uranus and Neptune are squares, when the two planets are 90 degrees apart, about 40-45 years between them. Thus it fits into turnings cycles as well, at least to those of the modern length or slightly longer. This square can indicate major international tension and war, often involving the matters indicated by the conjunctions and oppositions. The Cold War in the early and mid 1950s was one of these, as well as one of the Middle East Wars (Suez Crisis). This is significant for this thread, because there was a square in the late 60s during the Jewish-Roman War, following upon the opposition and cross of 25 AD. During and after this war, the gospels were written as the Jews and Christians were forced to relocate. Other conjunctions occurred at key dates of imperial power in Rome, and this may be because it was the destiny of Rome to host and boost Christianity. For example, the first Roman triumvirate was formed during a conjunction, and Trajan expanded the empire during the conjunction of 111 that followed upon the square in the 60s. Diocletian made his reforms during another such conjunction, and Attila invaded and was defeated during another. Another monumental conjunction-opposition between Uranus, Neptune and Pluto occurred when Alexander the Great died in 323 BC.

We saw the parallel in 1919 and 2001 with the attacks on New York. World War I (Uranus-Neptune opposition circa 1908) prepared the way for the Wall Street bombing in 1919, and the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center (during Uranus-Neptune exact conjunction) was repeated on 9-11. These were not Crisis events, but third turning events. The Wall St. attack may have had something to do with America's involvement in the Russian Revolution, which cemented the Soviet Union rulers' hatred of America. 9-11 resulted of course in a much longer involvement abroad. But they were both "wars of choice." In roughly the same corresponding era, but another half-cycle before, was the Texas Revolution and the siege of The Alamo which eventually resulted in the Mexican War during a third turning, another war of choice.

I am posting my chapter on this cycle from my 1997-published book for more info, including dates and a few corresponding events for all the Uranus-Neptune conjunctions.

Originally Posted by Mikebert

To "plot" freedom-progress, assumes one can measure the levels of "freedom" and "progress" over time. I have no idea how to do this.

I see your point. It's a difficult thing to measure.

Hmmmm... Maybe prison populations and executions? I'm not 100% on this, though, because the data would have to be scrubbed up really well to go even deep in the middle ages (at a certain point, there wasn't much social investment in warehousing criminals). That to me would indicate both progress (an increase in the ability to resolve crime) and a loss of freedom (a society doesn't imprison it's populace purely for the purpose of crime and punishment, it's extremely inefficient).

Maybe the number of minor crimes? I dunno, that's hard because societies have differing opinions on what constitutes major and minor, plus younger iterations of Western societies don't enforce religious laws, so there might be some artificial blips in there...

You're right, it's hard, if not impossible. It's too multispectral.

I have suggested a theme for a broader multi-saecula trend that addressed perceived inauthenticity of the Christian religion relative to the descriptions of Christ’s ministry and the life of the early Christians in Scripture. The scheme can be depicted as follows:

Waldenses ―――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――― ――Huguenots (Protestant)
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .... ↓
.................................................. .................................................. ......................................Moravians (Protestant)
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .... ↑
Fransciscans ―――― Spirituals ―――― William of Occam―――― Wycliffe ―――― Jan Hus ――――――――――――――Lutherans (Protestant)
Mendicant Awakening......................Avignon Awakening ..............................Hussite Awakening ...................................Reformation

The story starts around 1173 with a wealthy merchant in Lyons, France named Waldo, who upon hearing Christ’s directive to the rich young man (If thou wilt be perfect, go sell what thou hast, and give to the poor - Mathew 19:21) went and did just that. He began to preach in the streets of Lyon and soon had a following that came to be called the Waldenses. The organization of the Waldenses was a reaction against the great splendor and outward display existing in the medieval Church; it was a practical protest against the worldly lives of some contemporary churchmen. Amid such ecclesiastical conditions the Waldenses made the profession of extreme poverty a prominent feature in their own lives, and emphasized by their practice the need for the much neglected task of preaching. Pope Lucius III included them among the heretics against whom he issued a Bull of excommunication at Verona in 1184 and the movement was largely stamped out in most places outside of Provence and Languedoc, This remnant mostly merged with French Calvinists (Huguenots) during the Reformation movement. Ultimately the Waldensesian movement was a failure because it had run afoul of the church authorities.

Half a century after Waldo, new, very similar movements sprang up that were not condemned. A sermon which Francis of Assisi, Italy heard in 1209 made such an impression on him that he decided to devote himself wholly to a life of poverty. Clad in a rough garment, barefoot, and, after the Evangelical precept, without staff or scrip, he began to preach repentance. He was soon joined by others and the Franciscan movement was born. They spent much of their time traveling through the mountainous districts of Umbria, always cheerful and full of songs. Their life was extremely ascetic, in accordance with a collection of Scriptural passages emphasizing the duty of poverty that formed the initial rule for their group.

The Church was wary of movements critical of its policies. At councils in 1229 and 1234, it forbid commoners from reading vernacular translations of the Bible, because heretics often tried to make the faithful judge the Church by their own interpretation of the Bible. Neverthess, despite similarities between the Franciscan views on poverty and those of the Waldenses, the Franciscans succeeded in gaining the approval of Pope Innocent III to become an official (and hence legal) order. What seems to have impressed first the Bishop of Assisi and finally the pope was their utter loyalty to the Church and the clergy. Other orders emphasizing the importance of poverty (Dominicans. Servites. Carmelites).sprang up around this time.

It would seem that where Franciscans and Waldenses differed was that the former was completely devoid of political content; it seemed truly spiritual in nature. This suggests that the Franciscans were an Awakening movement while the Waldenses were not.

The thirteenth-century saw enormous growth of the Franciscan Order. Around the 1270’s a division developed between the spirituals, who insisted on observing the strict poverty practiced by Francis of Assisi himself, and those willing to settle for a more moderate observance which would enable them to perform the many functions given them by the church. Serious trouble occurred in the first decade of the fourteenth century, with large numbers of Italian and southern French spirituals being disciplined by the order. The frustrated spirituals eventually tried to solve their problem by forcibly seizing a series of convents and holding them as their own turf. In 1317 John XXII ordered the Spirituals to conform or face the consequences. When some refused, he identified them as heretics and a few were sent to the stake. In 1322 the Pope declared the spiritual Franciscan doctrine that Christ & apostles had no property as heresy. A number of Franciscans were excommunicated for disputing the pope in this issue, including the Minister General of the Franciscans Michael of Cesena and philosopher William of Ockham.

The unrealistically extreme example set by the spiritual Franciscans was perceived as threatening to the Church, but it is not clear that the Spirituals had any political message, they seem to have simply been spirit-fired people displaying behavior characteristic of the Prophet archetype, suggesting another Awakening in the early 14th century. The economic parameters during this period were consistent with an Awakening as well.

The 1355-1385 period shows the price stress and lack of building activity characteristic of either a Crisis or Awakening period. The key figure in this story during this time was John Wycliffe. Wycliffe was influenced by the thought of William of Ockham. He was an opponent of papal authority influencing secular power, following the example of Marsiglio of Padua, whose Defensor Pacis of 1324 affirmed the sovereignty of the people and civil law and sought to greatly limit the power of the Papacy. In his Summa Theologica, Wycliffe attacked the temporal rule of the clergy and the collection of annates and indulgences as simony. His fundamental belief was that the Church should be poor, as in the days of the apostles. While he later claimed that it was not his purpose to incite temporal lords to confiscate church property, Wycliffe’s writings were used as justification for doing just this in the next century.

Wycliffe’s views were naturally popular with the English government as it was engaged in war with France, and the French pope at Avignon was biased towards the French. Because of this Wycliffe faced no threat to his life or livelihood as a result of his anti-clerical teachings. Wycliffe was also an early advocate for translation of the Bible into the common language and completed a translation directly from the Latin Vulgate into vernacular English in the year 1382.

Wycliffe’s thought was more political than that of the spiritual Franciscans and Ockham earlier in the century and had practical consequences, suggesting that Wycliffe was a Hero archetype and the 1355-85 period a Crisis turning.

Our story now moves to Bohemia (modern Czech republic) and Artist archetype Jan Hus (1369-1415). Hus was ordained a priest in 1400 and became rector of the university at Prague in 1402-3. He was deeply influenced by Wycliffe. In 1406, two Bohemian students brought to Prague an Oxford document eulogizing Wycliffe that Hus proudly read from his pulpit. His acceptance of the doctrine of impanation in the Eucharist was a key doctrinal error that helped label him as heretic around 1409. Hus agreed with Wycliffe that the Church had become too worldly and he opposed indulgences and other payments to the Church as simony. Hus wrote, "One pays for confession, for mass, for the sacrament, for indulgences, for churching a woman, for a blessing, for burials, for funeral services and prayers. The very last penny which an old woman has hidden in her bundle for fear of thieves or robbery will not be saved. The villainous priest will grab it." Although Hus was a Czech patriot, his religious views do not seem to have been excessively political, his disputes with the Church seem to me to have been more doctrinal and moral as less political than those of Wycliffe. IMO, this makes Hus more of an early Awakening figure than a Crisis one.

Hus’s execution for heresy at the council of Constance in 1415 galvanized public opinion against the Church in Bohemia. A number of religious movements appeared in the spiritual fervor kindled by Hus’s teachings and energized by his death. The people involved in these movements are collectively termed Hussites. The moderates, based in Prague, followed Hus more closely and sought to conduct reform while leaving the whole hierarchical and liturgical order of the Church intact. Their beliefs are summarized by the four articles of Prague:

1.Freedom to preach the Word of God.
2.Celebration of the Lord's Supper in both kinds (bread and wine to priests and laity alike).
3.No secular power for the clergy.
4.Equal punishment for the mortal sins without considering the social position of the criminal

The radical groups, prevalent outside of Prague, include the citizens of the Town of Tabor who joined with local peasants to develop a communist society. The Taborites announced the Millennium of Christ and declared there would be no more servants and masters. Another group, the Bohemian Brethren, would eventually become the Moravian church (founded 1457). The radicals were more closely aligned with the doctrines of Wycliffe and desired to return the Church to its supposed condition during the time of the apostles. This required the removal of the existing hierarchy and the secularization of ecclesiastical possessions. Above all, they embraced Wycliffe's more radical doctrine of the Lord's Supper, denying transubstantiation.

With the death of King Wenceslaus in 1419 a revolution swept over the country: churches and monasteries were destroyed, and church property was seized by the radical Hussite nobility. Wenceslaus’s successor Sigismund could get possession of his kingdom only by force of arms. Pope Martin V called upon Catholics of the West to take up arms against the Hussites, and there followed twelve years of warfare known as the Hussite Wars.

The Hussite movement was eventually suppressed, but one of the movements spawned by Hus became what is arguably one of the first Protestant churches, fifty years before Luther. Luther was also deeply influenced by Hus’s writings. The Hussite movement can be considered directly antecedent to the Lutheran movement in the Reformation Awakening in the early 16^th century.

In the three posts above I told a story of how a concept centered on the idea that Christians should eschew wealth and secular power developed from the teachings of Peter Waldo in the late 12th century to the Reformation 250 years later. In that story I focused on periods revealed by the economic analysis to be likely social moments (i.e. Awakenings or Crises) and characterized some as Awakenings. This story can be fleshed out with additional information (I presented a condensed version) and Chas's archetype methods applied to that story. And there are more stories. For example the putative Hussite Awakening can be explored by the history of Lollardy in England, in which you get figures such as John Oldcastle (believed to be a model for Shakespeare's Falstaff). One can also trace the developments of the various mendicant orders to see what stories can be told. In each story one should keep in mind the economic factors that are always in the background, subtly influencing things. Consult the table for that.

When one has the religious stories fleshed out, one can move on to the political story. Chas already has looked at how the story of the late Medieval English monarchs as told by the chroniclers and Shakespeare seems to worked out by archetype. But there is more to these kings than what is in the plays. They dealt with all sorts of people. Edward III was a warrior's warrior, the epitome of Nobility, who cultivated relationships with commoners: Italian bankers and foreign merchants to raise loans from the former to be serviced by taxes on the latter. He appointed a great finance minister, was quite inventive on new revenue strategies and was something of a pioneer in economic planning. Pragmatic to a fault, he would exploit the ideology of Chivalry with his exclusive Order of the Garter, yet saw no problem with putting talent ahead of class when it came to admitting members. Nor did he have any compunction about using commoners to mow down the flower of French chivalry when it served his interests. He strikes me as a Nomad archetype, which is consistent with his birth during the putative Avignon Awakening.

I propose a series of "Mega-Awakenings", cultural transformations paced about three centuries (saeculae) apart, that created our modern world. Four of the first five comprise the beginnings of most of the great religions and the rise of philosophy. The ones in the 4th and 10th centuries involve major developments in the Christian and Western branch of the church that put Christianity at an institutional level on par with Islam, which, being more centrally organized from the start and growing in more technologically advanced regions, had achieved this level by the 10th century under the Abbasid Caliphate.

The inherent disorganization of Christianity relative to Islam led to a breakdown in the unity achieved by the 12th century that was manifested in the next two mega-awakenings. The decentralized nature of Western Christianity created the conditions by which the massive transformation of the most recent mega-awakening that we call the Industrial Revolution took place. Six of the nine mega-awakennings are centered* on S&H-type Awakening turnings. (*center = the average of the dates of the events falling into the mega-awakening)

The mega Awakenings are listed below:

Axial age (6^th cent BC)Center falls in the mid-500's BC, during a McGuinness Unraveling turning over 569-539 BC:
Jeremiah (ca. 650 – 570 BC) Hebrew prophet active ca. 627-587 BC
Zarathustra (ca. 628-ca. 551 BC) - Zorastrianism
Ezekiel (ca. 622-570 BC) Hebrew prophet active ca. 592-570 BC
Lao Tze,(ca. 604- ca. 521 BC) - Taoism
Siddhartha Guatama, (c583- c503 BC) - Buddhism
Vardhamāna Mahāvīra (599–527 BCE) – Jainism
K'ung Fu-tzu (551- 479 BC) - Confucianism


Philosophical Awakening (4^th cent BC) Center falls into a McGuiness Awakening turning over 356-323 BC.
Plato (ca. 424-347 BC) founds the Academy in ca. 385 BC
Mencius (372-289) theory of just rebellion against immoral rulers
Aristotle (384-322 BC) founds the Lyceum in ca. 335 BC
Epicurus (341-270 BC) founds philosophical school in ca. 311-306 BC
Zeno (334-362 BC) founds Stoicism in ca. 300

Christian Awakening (1^st cent AD) Events centered in the early 70's AD, which is close to Horner Awakening turning over 75-95 and is not inconsistent with Kepi's views.
Jesus (ca. 4 BC – 30 AD) ministry ca. 29-30 AD
James (d ca. 62-69 AD)
Paul (ca. 5-67 AD)
Peter (ca.1 – 67 AD)
Pauline Epistles (51-58)
Council of Jerusalem ca. 49-50 AD
Synoptic Gospels and Acts ca. 65-85 AD
Revelation ca. 95
Pastoral Epistles & Gospel of John ca. 80-110

Rise of Christianity (4^th cent) Events centered duirng a McGuiness High turning over 359-387.
Edict of Milan 313 AD
Council of Nicaea 325 AD
Beginning of Monasticism 335
St. Basil (330-379) developed rules for monasteries
St. Jerome (347-420) Church Father, produced the Vulgate Bible in 405
St. Ambrose (340-397) Church Father
St. Augustine (354-430) Church Father, wrote The City of God over 413 to ca. 425
Edict of Thessalonica 380; made Christianity Roman state religion
Council of Carthage (397) establishes New Testament canon

Rise of Islam (7^th cent) Events centered on McGuiness Islamic Awakening over AD 632-664.
622 Hjira
631 Arabia converted
632 Death of Mohammed/ final vision of Koran
638 Council of Jabiya
634-44 Muslim conquest of Egypt, Palestine, Syria, Mesopotamia and Persia
674 Arab conquest reaches the Indus River.
698 Muslim conquest of Roman North Africa
711-18 Muslim conquest of Visigothic Spain

Cluny Awakening (10^th cent) The Cluny monastery was established in AD 910. Form the start it was independent of local secular authority, only answering to the Church. Franchise operations spread throughout Europe, all acknowledging the authority of Rome as their liege lord. Monasteries provided a significant source of demand for goods that could not be locally produced. This stimulated trade and began Europe's commerical rise from the nadir reached in the ninth century. Monasteries engaging in commerce sent a portion of their cash reveunues to Rome. By 1100 there were over 1000 franchisees of the Cluny brand supplying revenues to the "home office" in Rome. Such a corporate system would necessarily lead to blowback, which is what the next mega Awakening was about. The founding of Cluny is part of a McGuiness Awakening over 885-911.

Mendicant Awakening (13^th cent) I covered this here. It is centered on McGuiness's 1204-1231 awakening turning.
Waldenses begun in ca 1173
Joachim of Fiore (1135-1202) Greatest Medieval Apocalyptic writer
1193-1233 Mendicant Orders (Trinitarian, Franciscans, Poor Clares, Carmelites, Mercedarians, Dominicans, Third degree Franciscans, Servites)
Thomas Aquinas (1225-1274) Greatest philosopher and theologian

Reformation (16^th cent) The Protestant Awakening, centered in the Reformation Awakening turning
Moravian Church begins 1457
Martin Luther (1483-1546) Lutherans 1517
Thomas Munzer (1489-1525) Anabaptists 1521
Ulrich Zwingli (1484-1531) church reforms 1523
Menno Simons (1496-1561) founds Mennonite church 1536
Jacob Hutter (1500-1536) Hutterite Brethren 1529
Henry VIII (1491-1547) establishes the Anglican Church 1534
John Calvin (1509-64) Institutes of the Christian Religion 1536
John Knox (1514-72) Scottish Reformation 1541
Hugenots appear ca. 1550
Presbyterianism begins 1564


Economic Awakening & Industrial Revolution (19^th cent)
James Watt (1736-1819) - Watt steam engine 1775
Adam Smith (1723-90) – Wealth of Nations 1776
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) An Essay on the Principle of Population 1798
David Ricardo (1772-1823) Principles of Political Economy and Taxation 1817
George Stephenson (1781-1848) First railroad 1825
Pierre-Joseph Prodhon (1809-65) What is Property? 1840
Samuel Morse (1791-1872) Telegraph 1844
Karl Marx (1818-83) Communist Manifesto 1848
John Stewart Mill (1806-73) Utilitarianism 1863
Karl Benz (1844-1929) First automobile 1886

Originally Posted by Mikebert

I propose a series of "Mega-Awakenings", cultural transformations paced about three centuries (saeculae) apart, that created our modern world. Four of the first five comprise the beginnings of most of the great religions and the rise of philosophy. The ones in the 4th and 10th centuries involve major developments in the Christian and Western branch of the church that put Christianity at an institutional level on par with Islam, which, being more centrally organized from the start and growing in more technologically advanced regions, had achieved this level by the 10th century under the Abbasid Caliphate.

The inherent disorganization of Christianity relative to Islam led to a breakdown in the unity achieved by the 12th century that was manifested in the next two mega-awakenings. The decentralized nature of Western Christianity created the conditions by which the massive transformation of the most recent mega-awakening that we call the Industrial Revolution took place. Seven of the nine mega-awakennings are centered* on S&H-type Awakening turnings. (*center = the average of the dates of the events falling into the mega-awakening)

The mega Awakenings are listed below:

Axial age (6^th cent BC) Hebrew prophets Jeremiah, Ezekiel, Daniel, beginnings of Buddhism, Jainism, Taoism, Confucianism. Center falls in the mid-500's BC, during a McGuinness Unraveling turning over 569-539 BC.

Philosophical Awakening (4^th cent BC) Confucian philosopher Mencius, Plato and Aristotle found academies, Epicureanism and Stoicism. Center falls into a McGuiness Awakening turning over 356-323 BC.

Christian Awakening (1^st cent AD) Events centered in the 60's AD, which falls within a Horner Awakening turning over 75-95 and is not inconsistent with Kepi's views.

Rise of Christianity (4^th cent) Events: Edict of Milan 313, Council of Nicaea 325, Beginning of Monasticism 335, St. Basil (330-379) developed rules for monasteries, St. Jerome (347-420) produced the Vulgate Bible in 405, St. Ambrose (340-397) Church Father, St. Augustine (354-430) WroteCity of God over 413 to ca. 425, Edict of Thessalonica 380 made Christianity Roman state religion, Council of Carthage 397 AD establishes New Testament canon. Events centered duirng a McGuiness High turning over 359-387.

Rise of Islam (7^th cent) Events: 622 Hjira; 631 Arabia converted, 632 Final vision of Koran, 638 Council of Jabiya, 634-44 Muslim conquest of Egypt, Palestine, Syria, Mesopotamia and Persia, 674 Arab conquest reaches the Indus River, 698 Muslim conquest of Roman North Africa, 711-18 Muslim conquest of Visigothic Spain. Events centered on McGuiness Islamic Awakening over AD 632-664.

Cluny Awakening (10^th cent) The Cluny monastery was established in AD 910. Form the start it was independent of local secular authority, only answering to the Church. Franchise operations spread throughout Europe, all acknowledging the authority of Rome as their liege lord. Monasteries provided a significant source of demand for goods that could not be locally produced. This stimulated trade and began Europe's commerical rise from the nadir reached in the ninth century. Monasteries engaging in commerce sent a portion of their cash reveunues to Rome. By 1100 there were over 1000 franchisees of the Cluny brand supplying revenues to the "home office" in Rome. Such a corporate system would necessarily lead to blowback, which is what the next mega Awakening was about. The founding of Cluny is part of a McGuiness Awakening over 885-911.

Mendicant Awakening (13^th cent) I covered this here. It is centered on McGuiness's 1204-1231 awakening turning.

Reformation (16^th cent) The Protestant Awakening, centered in the Reformation Awakening turning

Economic Awakening & Industrial Revolution (19^th cent) Economic philosophers: Smith, Malthus, Ricado, Prodhon, Marx, Mills. Industrial developments: steam engine, railroad, telegraph, authomobile. This period centered in the Transcendental Awakening turning.

Interesting spacing. Most of the mega-awakenings are 300 years apart. The major exception is the Philosophical Awakening, which is only 200 years after the Axial Awakening in the 6th Century BCE and 500 years before the Christian Awakening in the 1st Century CE.