Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Generational Theory Forum - Page 6







Post#126 at 06-28-2008 12:04 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
06-28-2008, 12:04 PM #126
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Posse Comitatus

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
...Let's be honest. Most of us have at least a semblance of anonymity on this board...
-I've noticed.

BTW, how does this statement...

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
...For myself, I tend to get hot under the collar at times, so feel free to tell me when hot gets too hot.
...correlate to this one?

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
...As it stands, we're disembodied avatars, without the luxury of a faux shape to stand behind. If you threaten Marx & Lennon or M&L, my alter ego takes the hit. I go to bed...
-Call me "Curious in Clarksville"...

BTW, "snark" should not punished, it should be awarded with Honors and Treasures!

I (of course) have no personal interest in the above statement.

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
...There are a few posters who are neutral and fair 99.9% of the time. GB is certainly one. I can certainly name several others, if we need a tribunal of sorts. I'm sure we all can.
-If you're trying to round up a posse to root out abusive behavior, and are looking for someone with whom I disagee 90% (well, 85%) of the time on political, social, and economic issues, I'd suggest the rigorously polite Wonkette.







Post#127 at 06-28-2008 01:23 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
06-28-2008, 01:23 PM #127
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Snark

Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
...Please stop pointing out inconsistencies in people's posts. We on this forum do not like to think about ourselves that deeply. You will now be pelted with ad homs and fictitiously burned at the stake...
-I don't mind actually being burned at the stake that much. After a few hours, my ashes just reform...

I suspect M&L will get over it...







Post#128 at 06-28-2008 02:52 PM by webmaster [at joined Aug 2006 #posts 123]
---
06-28-2008, 02:52 PM #128
Join Date
Aug 2006
Posts
123

Forum Rules

I missed a bunch over the past couple of days while I was away.

First, I want to say that I can have no tolerance for comments that appear to condone, justify, or suggest violence against any member of this forum. It has to cease.

I encourage people to stop using such imagery now. I also encourage everyone to report such posts so they can be examined more closely.

Plus, I would ask if everyone could take a breath before calling other people names -- it does not help the conversation.

This thread has given me much to consider.

-- Craig







Post#129 at 06-28-2008 06:33 PM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
---
06-28-2008, 06:33 PM #129
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Kalamazoo MI
Posts
4,502

Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
Check it out!

Volcanic eruptions reshape Arctic ocean floor: study

Maybe there are unicorns on Mars after all.
Thanks for the url. I was surprised that such a big volcano wasn't picked up on seismographs. Perhaps the depth affects the amount of shaking.

I looked into it a bit and found tons of wingers peddling your thesis that a big ole volcano could be melting the ice. Looks like they all stole your idea.

Anyways the idea that the heat from volcanos is significant in melting ice is wrong. All one need do to a quick calculation on the amount of ice a volcano's heat can melt. This Arctic volcano is estimated as comparable to the Vesuvius eruption in AD 79.

According to this book the Vesuvius eruption was 1000 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb which works out to 20 megatons. A megaton is 10^15 calories so the energy output from this volcano is on the order of 2 x 10^16 calories.

How much ice can you melt with this amount of energy? It takes about 80 calories to melt a gram of ice. A cubic meter of ice is roughly one metric ton (on million grams) so it takes about 80 million calories to melt one cubic meter of ice. Dividing this into the heat output above yields 250 million cubic meters of ice. If we assume the ice is 10 meters thick this would be an era of 25 million square meters or 25 sq km (about 10 sq miles).

But to melt the ice you first have to warm the water underneath the ice. This water is 4000 meters deep. The volume under this 25 sq km of ice is then 100 cubic km (25 sq km x 4 km deep). One cubic km is one billion cubic meters. A cubic meter of water is a million grams. So one cubic km of water is one million-billion grams of water or 10^15 grams. We have 100 cubic km of water so that means 10^17 grams of water.

A calorie is the energy needed to heat on gram of water one degree so if we take 2 x 10^16 calories and divide it by 10^17 grams of water we get a temperature rise of only 0.2 degrees C.

That's not much warming. Obviously a good deal of the volcano's heat is going to go to warming the water between the sea floor and the ice. So likely a lot less than 10 meters of ice could get melted. But a lot of this arctic ice isn't all that thick so it is not unreasonable to estimate that as much as 10 sq miles of ice could have been cleared by such a volcano, if it was under some thin ice. Even so, 10 sq miles out of hundreds of thousands of square miles of melted ice is a drop in the bucket.

Simply put, volcanic energy is very very small compared to greenhouse forcings. The ~0.8 watt/m^2 global greenhouse forcing that has occurred over the past 30 years applied to the ~10 million sq km of arctic ice cover at winter maximum comes to about 3000 times the volcano's energy over a single year. That is, the greenhouse forcing provides an impact of a size similar to 3000 volcanoes like this erupting every year under the ice.

This is why scientists simply say the volcanos don't have an impact on the melting.







Post#130 at 06-29-2008 12:32 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
---
06-29-2008, 12:32 PM #130
Join Date
Mar 2003
Location
Where the Northwest meets the Southwest
Posts
9,198

Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
Why are you bothering talking to me again anyway? Since I'm just a drama queen playing games and all.
I have given your question some consideration. Responding, solicited or otherwise, to your posts seems to only encourage your attention-seeking. In my experience it's like adding gasoline to a fire. Good luck with the "death threats" and persecution. I'm sure Wally is an extremely unstable and dangerous person and that the ruling cabal here at T4T will be defeated in due time by your righteous, disparate band of oppressed underdogs.

Oh, and keep on keeping on in not reading any of S&H books, not understanding the workings of the theory, and not being interested to any significant degree in saecular issues. We wouldn't want you contributing anything having to actually do with the site at any point. And on other points of interest, maybe you can just keep bringing up repeated non sequiturs to stir things up. I think that volcano theory might still have some annoyance mileage to it. Heck, maybe Mike will waste some more time doing the math to amuse you.

Please forgive me for putting you back on Ignore where you belong.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#131 at 06-29-2008 12:54 PM by The Young Rebel- '90 [at Columbia, SC joined Aug 2007 #posts 165]
---
06-29-2008, 12:54 PM #131
Join Date
Aug 2007
Location
Columbia, SC
Posts
165

Mike Easton:

There's no cussing rule that was just my policy. It seemed kinda ungentleman like to just go around cussing. And it doesn't make you sound smart (and the imagined threat of being banned).

But, if you want to say fuck you to somebody, you should have said it by now. Just not to me unless I really deserve it.

Well, Ima go back to chilling and wait to see what this guy Pink Splice (nice guy; wouldn't want to be on his bad side though I am wondering how he'd imagine me killing myself) has to say.
I'm 20 man I can't even believe that, can I even call myself young anymore?
INFP Core Millie







Post#132 at 06-30-2008 03:06 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
06-30-2008, 03:06 PM #132
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Creepiness

A while ago, Semo posted this:

Quote Originally Posted by Semo '75 View Post
...you'd be hard pressed to find violent fantasies involving murdering my political opponents or seeing chicks strangled to death....Pink Splice goes around fantasizing about everyone's murder, not just The Rani...
To which I posted this:
Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
...would you happen to have evidence for this?
It's not that I didn't think PS capable of it (based on other stuff I've seen), but I would've like to have seen it in context.

I just noticed this (I've been reading backwards thru' this thread):

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
...
1. We admitted we were powerless over X'r snark—that our lives had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity.
3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood Him.
4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves.
5. Admitted to God, to ourselves, and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of character.
7. Humbly asked Him to remove our shortcomings.
8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to make amends to them all.
9. Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others.
10. Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.
11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His Will for us and the power to carry that out.
12. Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to alcoholics, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.

What I'm envisioning for Rani, due to her stellar empathy for others (think House plus Forman, squared), is that she will go through Steps 1-5 as she's being choked to death by one of her patients. Steps six and seven will take place at the moment of clinical death, past the point of brain damage (four minutes).
...which, at best, is a creepy thing to write to a chick; I don't think it's quite as creepy as rubbing your hands with glee at the possible death or capture of a US Soldier. It was preceeded by this:

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
Rational argument with you is pointless. I'm just waiting for one of your customers to come in and help you with Step 5 of your own twelve step program, all at once. The process should take less than four minutes.
-Tsk, tsk. Temper, temper.

Now, COS has written this:

Quote Originally Posted by Child of Socrates View Post
...Hey, I saw where KIA wants to metaphorically crush me between a rock and a hard place...
..which was:

Quote Originally Posted by K-I-A 67 View Post
...BTW, this is the reason I support politically positioning you between a moderate conservative rock and a really conservative wall with one small opening for escape which leads to a cliff with a with a very steep drop. BTW, once your at the edge of the cliff. At that point, you're either going to make me a believer by displaying a pair of wings and flying like angel or you're gonna prove that you're a misguided human pondering her limited options and choices at the edge of the cliff. BTW, this s is just my imagination at play of coarse...
...at first I wouldn't have put that in quite the PS category, until I realized that (like PS), that KIA 67 actually thought this stuff thru', and then decided to post it on the internet (where I'm told) it will live forever...







Post#133 at 06-30-2008 03:47 PM by webmaster [at joined Aug 2006 #posts 123]
---
06-30-2008, 03:47 PM #133
Join Date
Aug 2006
Posts
123

These examples I have seen in this thread the past few days really are unacceptable.

I am working on a set of posting rules to implement on the boards. I regret that it has come to this, but these statements, or even flights of imagination, are something I cannot accept.

-- Craig







Post#134 at 07-01-2008 12:39 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
07-01-2008, 12:39 PM #134
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Kia

Oops. Posted on wrong thread.
Last edited by jamesdglick; 07-01-2008 at 12:41 PM. Reason: Posted on wrong thread; belongs in "Election 2008"







Post#135 at 07-01-2008 01:04 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
07-01-2008, 01:04 PM #135
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Kia

On KIA's comment to COS:

Quote Originally Posted by K-I-A 67 View Post
...BTW, this is the reason I support politically positioning you between a moderate conservative rock and a really conservative wall with one small opening for escape which leads to a cliff with a with a very steep drop. BTW, once your at the edge of the cliff. At that point, you're either going to make me a believer by displaying a pair of wings and flying like angel or you're gonna prove that you're a misguided human pondering her limited options and choices at the edge of the cliff. BTW, this s is just my imagination at play of coarse...
Rani says:

Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
...KIA admits that it's his imagination, while Pink Splice simply points out that he hasn't deleted his posts, with no further explanation.
-Again, that was my initial thought. But then, I realized that he must have actually spent a certain amount of time fantasizing about this (it's an involved fantasy), and then, as the piece de resistance, he decided "I've got a great idea, I'll post this on the internet, so the entire world can see what a Totally Together Individual I am".

Yeah. He should have spent more time on his spelling and grammar.

As Grey Badger pointed out elsewhere, a lot of people make comments, and then say "I was just kidding"; one way to do that is to put in a CYA comment like "BTW, this s is just my imagination at play of coarse...", or, they can add a cute smiley face afterward, as in this comment to Semo:

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
...To be honest, however, after "seen the light," my second choice was that you had "gone into the light."
-Cute.







Post#136 at 07-02-2008 04:37 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-02-2008, 04:37 PM #136
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

To Webmaster:

Is there any thing that can be done about a poster that constantly parses out segments of sentences from multiply posts by multiply posters to such an extreme point that he completely misrepresents the train of thought of the original posters?

Just for example, one could easily parse and piece together the following -

Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
I simply
Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
don't have natural talent
and
Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
might commit an atrocity
Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
I think
Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
I didn't get married
because


Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
-I don't mind actually
spending
Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
a certain amount of time fantasizing about
Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
Sheep
I mean this juxtaposition of partial segments could be as true as those that this certain poster has pieced together; who’s to say for sure one way or the other? However, it does seem to be a bit disingenuous, if not actually fairly insulting to the original poster(s). Is there something that can be done about such postings? It does seem to be limited to one certain poster.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#137 at 07-02-2008 05:02 PM by Semo '75 [at Hostile City joined Feb 2004 #posts 897]
---
07-02-2008, 05:02 PM #137
Join Date
Feb 2004
Location
Hostile City
Posts
897

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
I mean this juxtaposition of partial segments could be as true as those that this certain poster has pieced together; who’s to say for sure one way or the other?
No offense meant to James, and I meant that sincerely, but that was the single funniest thing that I've ever read on this forum. Period.

I'm actually tearing.
"All stories are haunted by the ghosts of the stories they might have been." ~*~ Salman Rushdie, Shame







Post#138 at 07-02-2008 05:23 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-02-2008, 05:23 PM #138
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by Semo '75 View Post
No offense meant to James, and I meant that sincerely, but that was the single funniest thing that I've ever read on this forum. Period.

I'm actually tearing.
I am particularly pleased that it brought a smile to you.

It was my post to you that James had referenced. In that post I had, more or less, said that I was hoping that you were off doing good things, but in jest, given our history of duking it out, I had said I had evil thoughts about you "going into the light" as well.

I'd be okay with you tearing into me for that "cute" remark, if you cared to, because you would know of the context and understand (and accept or reject) that, in toto, the post was out of respect for you - not just because of your former military service but to what I imagined was committed community work. It was your insight into a certain Borough nearby to me that made me sense a guy who cares about community. I think you have since moved on to a different community, but my admiration still holds. Best to you.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#139 at 07-02-2008 06:07 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
07-02-2008, 06:07 PM #139
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Hmmm...

Perhaps I mis-judged Playwrite. Today's public post to Semo:

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
...It was my post to you that James had referenced. In that post I had, more or less, said that I was hoping that you were off doing good things, but in jest, given our history of duking it out, I had said I had evil thoughts about you "going into the light" as well...
...and PW's original post:

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Gee, Semo, I built up this fantasy that you had 'seen the light' and committed to some community service endeavor of great import to people with real problems; no time for bashing or counter-bashing on some e-forum.

I hope you have now return to that endeavor and we can just caulk up this ugly scene to a momentary relapse (I know of these things from personal experience).

To be honest, however, after "seen the light," my second choice was that you had "gone into the light."
-It the context of what others have posted, and Playwrite's usual sarcasm, it looked dubious to me.

However, since Semo is fine with it, that's that.

Quote Originally Posted by Semo '75 View Post
No offense meant to James...but that was the single funniest thing that I've ever read on this forum. Period.

I'm actually tearing.
-No offense taken...







Post#140 at 07-02-2008 07:29 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
07-02-2008, 07:29 PM #140
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
To Webmaster:

Is there any thing that can be done about a poster that constantly parses out segments of sentences from multiply posts by multiply posters to such an extreme point that he completely misrepresents the train of thought of the original posters?...
Oh my.

This is Playwrite's original quote:

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
...Both the Dow and the SP500 went up over 200% from the start of 1995 to their March peak in 2000. Even if one was stupid enough to hold onto all their stocks to the lows in 2002, you still would have double your money in seven years and that doesn't include dividends. Any one who "panicked" in 2000 and taken their money out would have done much better...
...I later pointed out that the capital gains value for 30 year T-Bonds was quite nice between 1997-2000 (and still are, coming off a 7.11% high), plus you got the interest, which was superior to that of stock dividends:

Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
...of course, PW neglected to mention that stocks haven't done much better since 2002 (thus my original point about Bonds in 1995); I should also point out that NASDQ stocks averaged around 2% dividends between 1995-2000...
...my point being that adding in stock dividends doesn't improve stock investments anywhere near as much as adding in interest on bonds improves bond investments. I didn't take PW out of context here.

Later, Mikebert mentioned how low stock dividends have been since the early 90's:

Quote Originally Posted by Mikebert View Post
...Imagine and average Joe who buys stock that pays no significant dividend (like a lot of stocks today)...
...and I agreed with Mikebert, pointing out that not everyone realizes that:

Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
-Yeah, I had to remind this guy [Playwrite] that dividends on the NASDQ 1995-2000 were between 1%-2%, and the DOW Industrials and the S&P 500 weren't much better...
...and I included Playwrite's quote. It is a valid criticism of Playwrite's assessment of US stocks from 1995-2000. So it was not disingenous, nor does not mis-represent his "train of thought", or give it a "different meaning". Perhaps PW would like to offer a different example?

BTW, here's PW's first complaint, as posted on the "Election 2008" thread:

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
As I apparently need to remind you, that little snip you parsed-out had to do with responding to your claim of potential as a successful financial guru and in the same paragraph telling us that you were out of the market for the several years of one of the best historical bull runs in our lifetimes.

Perhaps if there is going to be 'policing' of the forum, it should include removing posts that parse others' words to the point of an opposite or completely different meaning?

You went on in that paragraph about how you started to slowly work your way back into stocks in 2000 so I guess that means you got back in just in time for the big dot.com bust. Since then, you've enjoyed the echo bull market up until last October, but now, you're basically back to where you started - the Dow stands about where it was at the end of 1999.

Readers be warned: taking financial advice emanating from a trailer park might prove very painful in your retirement years..
...again, leaving out the total effect of interest rates on the total gains on bonds.

Also, notice the snide comment about a thrifty military retiree who lives in the respectable Markland Mobile Home Park in Clarksville, Tennessee.

Tsk, tsk.

Naturally, I would never ask that such a posting be removed; I'd prefer for it to remain an eternal memorial to the charachter of the individual who posted it...







Post#141 at 07-02-2008 10:10 PM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
---
07-02-2008, 10:10 PM #141
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us)
Posts
5,439

Quote Originally Posted by The Young Rebel- '90 View Post
Mike Easton:

There's no cussing rule that was just my policy. It seemed kinda ungentleman like to just go around cussing. And it doesn't make you sound smart (and the imagined threat of being banned).

But, if you want to say fuck you to somebody, you should have said it by now. Just not to me unless I really deserve it.

Well, Ima go back to chilling and wait to see what this guy Pink Splice (nice guy; wouldn't want to be on his bad side though I am wondering how he'd imagine me killing myself) has to say.
Rebel: I've had aces full of tens beaten by quad threes bust me out of a tournament. The winner of that hand was most ungracious (Rags can describe a trash-talker player). I simply stood up, bowed, and went off for steak and eggs.

That knocked me out of a WSOP at the original Horseshoe on Fremont Street. I had won a $10,000 satellite to get in.

Rags: I had Ace of Spades, Ace Of Diamonds. Flop came Ace of Hearts, 10 clubs, 10 diamonds. I went all in. He called. Turn was 3 of clubs, river 3 of diamonds.

He had pocket threes, Spade-Hearts.

How angry would you have been? I just stood up and walked away. Didn't say a word.

At that time, steak and eggs dinners cost $2.89, at a little hole in the wall just north of Cheyenne on US 93. Had dinner, and went back to my quarters and just laid down for the night.

Rebel, I do not think that you, or anyone else here has anything to worry about from me.







Post#142 at 07-02-2008 11:55 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-02-2008, 11:55 PM #142
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
Oh my.

This is Playwrite's original quote:



...I later pointed out that the capital gains value for 30 year T-Bonds was quite nice between 1997-2000 (and still are, coming off a 7.11% high), plus you got the interest, which was superior to that of stock dividends:



...my point being that adding in stock dividends doesn't improve stock investments anywhere near as much as adding in interest on bonds improves bond investments. I didn't take PW out of context here.

Later, Mikebert mentioned how low stock dividends have been since the early 90's:



...and I agreed with Mikebert, pointing out that not everyone realizes that:



...and I included Playwrite's quote. It is a valid criticism of Playwrite's assessment of US stocks from 1995-2000. So it was not disingenous, nor does not mis-represent his "train of thought", or give it a "different meaning". Perhaps PW would like to offer a different example?

BTW, here's PW's first complaint, as posted on the "Election 2008" thread:



...again, leaving out the total effect of interest rates on the total gains on bonds.

Also, notice the snide comment about a thrifty military retiree who lives in the respectable Markland Mobile Home Park in Clarksville, Tennessee.

Tsk, tsk.

Naturally, I would never ask that such a posting be removed; I'd prefer for it to remain an eternal memorial to the charachter of the individual who posted it...
The problem here, James, is you are much more interested in trying somehow to prove your right rather than get to the truth. There are several issues here that you conveniently choose to ignore or mix together, hopefully, because you are just confused rather than intentionally trying to confuse and deceive.

First, you either don't understand or choose to ignore the most fundamental problem with privatizing SS, and that is asset inflation. This little quirk in your privatization scheme will at first make investors feel rich but devastate them later, particularly investors that buy in later, i.e., "the bag holders." Whether it be tulips in 1600 Holland, the dot.coms in 2000, the current housing bust or the likely coming commodities bust, these things are not pretty and can be devastating to someone who got caught wrong-footed. And by definition, that is going to be a lot of people caught wrong footed; just be sure, its not going to be those folks who "go to work" in lower Manhattan or in the pits in Chicago.

You have yet to address this issue of asset inflation in any meaningful and logical macro-economic manner since the very first post of our exchange; I do not hold out any hope that is going to change. So lets both ignore this most fundamental point, and instead play in Jimboy land --

Basically, your argument is confined to the relative return one could get by investing their own SS monies (ignoring the impact of asset inflation noted above, i.e., lets live in Jimboy land for the moment) rather than have it go to the government to provide you SS benefits in your retirement.

For long-term investing, there are three basic strategies based on three different assumptions. The first assumption, based on historical data, is that stocks, on avergae, eventually outperform all other investment vehicles and that one can expect a 7-10% annualized return (including dividends) on average. The problem with this assumption and strategy is that if you had invested at or near the top, just prior to a major bear market, you would be one of those digging your way out of a big hole for some segment of your working life and would fall short to way-short of that 7-10% return, i.e., you are on the left side of the bell shaped curve. So even with a "buy and hold" strategy, timing is key, not only when you start to invest but when you go to buy that annuity or tiered set of bonds and/or CDs, or rental real estate - what are the markets going to be in 10, 20, 30, 40 years? And timing is what leads us to the next basic approach.

Your second basic approach is based on the assumption that investment vehicles reflect the economy and as such reflect various cycles in the economy (e.g., production, consumption, productivity, housing, consumer/investor confidence) AND that you personally can take competitive advantage of these cycles by "buying low and selling high," rinse and repeat.

Your third basic approach is based on the assumption that some segment of the market is always doing better than other segments of the market AND that you personally can take competitive advantage and rotate to the right segment at the right time, buy-low, sell-high, rinse and repeat.

Now what one needs to realize for all of these strategies, but particularly the latter two, is that its not just about being smart about the markets, its also knowing that you are competing with countless other investors and institutions some of which are so powerful that they can actually manipulate the markets (and that certainly includes your own government that makes perfect decisions every time ) at least over some period of time to their advantage and very very often to your disadvantage.

Banks and brokerage firms have thousands of analysts on their roles tracking and analyzing investment vehicles. And there are hedge fund managers that are paid billions (and that is with a 'B') in this business to make the right investment decisions. However, in this arena, the vast majority of professional fund managers do worst than brainless indices. What I mean by "financial advice emanating from a trailer park" is that your information, your experience, your capabilities just might not be on par with these other players whose own track records are sub-par more often than not.

Its real nice that you made some money in your bonds since 1995. You would have certainly done much better if you had been in stocks for those first five years, out for a couple, back in for about four more, and out since Oct 2007. Its also possible that you could have lost your entire investment egg, it you had done much in the way of the opposite. You also need to measure your windfalls against what inflation has been eating away at, and I suggest not using the phoney government inflation reports. But, you feel you did okay, and that's just fine by me. However, you need to take a deep breath, and stop and realize that your principle let alone your returns are basically "lunch money" to a lot of other players, and some day, they might just take it from you with as much indifference as stepping on a clueless ant.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#143 at 07-03-2008 12:09 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-03-2008, 12:09 AM #143
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
I thought you meant that comment as something like reincarnation into a higher being, when I first read it.
Well, as I'm sure you know, some folks believe that's what's on the other side of that light - you know, that whole thing about not stepping on that bug because it might be grandma.

Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
Holy smoke. Or rather, whatcha smokin?
Yep, you guess it, I pulled out the best stuff. You clever girl!

Girl?! Whoops, don't take offense; I'm an old man.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#144 at 07-03-2008 12:18 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-03-2008, 12:18 AM #144
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
Rebel: I've had aces full of tens beaten by quad threes bust me out of a tournament. The winner of that hand was most ungracious (Rags can describe a trash-talker player). I simply stood up, bowed, and went off for steak and eggs.

That knocked me out of a WSOP at the original Horseshoe on Fremont Street. I had won a $10,000 satellite to get in.

Rags: I had Ace of Spades, Ace Of Diamonds. Flop came Ace of Hearts, 10 clubs, 10 diamonds. I went all in. He called. Turn was 3 of clubs, river 3 of diamonds.

He had pocket threes, Spade-Hearts.

How angry would you have been? I just stood up and walked away. Didn't say a word.

At that time, steak and eggs dinners cost $2.89, at a little hole in the wall just north of Cheyenne on US 93. Had dinner, and went back to my quarters and just laid down for the night.

Rebel, I do not think that you, or anyone else here has anything to worry about from me.
In regard to the play: really, there was no choice. You know that better than me.

But wow, I think I would have lost it, especially with a trash-talker.

Maybe we need to change that moniker to "Cool Hand Pink"

You'll be back -- and I think that's a good thing.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#145 at 07-03-2008 05:56 PM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
07-03-2008, 05:56 PM #145
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Still waiting...

After showing that Playwrite was wrong to claim that I took him out of context:

Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
...It is a valid criticism of Playwrite's assessment of US stocks from 1995-2000. So it was not disingenous, nor does not mis-represent his "train of thought", or give it a "different meaning"...
...I invited him to provide an example of where I did take him out of context. Instead, he created this:

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
The problem here, James, is you are much more interested in trying somehow to prove your right rather than get to the truth. There are several issues here that you conveniently choose to ignore or mix together, hopefully, because you are just confused rather than intentionally trying to confuse and deceive.

First, you either don't understand or choose to ignore the most fundamental problem with privatizing SS, and that is asset inflation. This little quirk in your privatization scheme will at first make investors feel rich but devastate them later, particularly investors that buy in later, i.e., "the bag holders." Whether it be tulips in 1600 Holland, the dot.coms in 2000, the current housing bust or the likely coming commodities bust, these things are not pretty and can be devastating to someone who got caught wrong-footed. And by definition, that is going to be a lot of people caught wrong footed; just be sure, its not going to be those folks who "go to work" in lower Manhattan or in the pits in Chicago.

You have yet to address this issue of asset inflation in any meaningful and logical macro-economic manner since the very first post of our exchange; I do not hold out any hope that is going to change. So lets both ignore this most fundamental point, and instead play in Jimboy land --

Basically, your argument is confined to the relative return one could get by investing their own SS monies (ignoring the impact of asset inflation noted above, i.e., lets live in Jimboy land for the moment) rather than have it go to the government to provide you SS benefits in your retirement.

For long-term investing, there are three basic strategies based on three different assumptions. The first assumption, based on historical data, is that stocks, on avergae, eventually outperform all other investment vehicles and that one can expect a 7-10% annualized return (including dividends) on average. The problem with this assumption and strategy is that if you had invested at or near the top, just prior to a major bear market, you would be one of those digging your way out of a big hole for some segment of your working life and would fall short to way-short of that 7-10% return, i.e., you are on the left side of the bell shaped curve. So even with a "buy and hold" strategy, timing is key, not only when you start to invest but when you go to buy that annuity or tiered set of bonds and/or CDs, or rental real estate - what are the markets going to be in 10, 20, 30, 40 years? And timing is what leads us to the next basic approach.

Your second basic approach is based on the assumption that investment vehicles reflect the economy and as such reflect various cycles in the economy (e.g., production, consumption, productivity, housing, consumer/investor confidence) AND that you personally can take competitive advantage of these cycles by "buying low and selling high," rinse and repeat.

Your third basic approach is based on the assumption that some segment of the market is always doing better than other segments of the market AND that you personally can take competitive advantage and rotate to the right segment at the right time, buy-low, sell-high, rinse and repeat.

Now what one needs to realize for all of these strategies, but particularly the latter two, is that its not just about being smart about the markets, its also knowing that you are competing with countless other investors and institutions some of which are so powerful that they can actually manipulate the markets (and that certainly includes your own government that makes perfect decisions every time ) at least over some period of time to their advantage and very very often to your disadvantage.

Banks and brokerage firms have thousands of analysts on their roles tracking and analyzing investment vehicles. And there are hedge fund managers that are paid billions (and that is with a 'B') in this business to make the right investment decisions. However, in this arena, the vast majority of professional fund managers do worst than brainless indices. What I mean by "financial advice emanating from a trailer park" is that your information, your experience, your capabilities just might not be on par with these other players whose own track records are sub-par more often than not.

Its real nice that you made some money in your bonds since 1995. You would have certainly done much better if you had been in stocks for those first five years, out for a couple, back in for about four more, and out since Oct 2007. Its also possible that you could have lost your entire investment egg, it you had done much in the way of the opposite. You also need to measure your windfalls against what inflation has been eating away at, and I suggest not using the phoney government inflation reports. But, you feel you did okay, and that's just fine by me. However, you need to take a deep breath, and stop and realize that your principle let alone your returns are basically "lunch money" to a lot of other players, and some day, they might just take it from you with as much indifference as stepping on a clueless ant.
...I guess this means that Playwrite couldn't find a single case of me taking him (or anyone else) out of context. However, I'd be more than happy to provide plenty of examples of his hypocritical dis-ingenuousness...

I'll answer the above post in the "2008 Election" thread.







Post#146 at 07-04-2008 05:40 PM by K-I-A 67 [at joined Jan 2005 #posts 3,010]
---
07-04-2008, 05:40 PM #146
Join Date
Jan 2005
Posts
3,010

Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
-Again, that was my initial thought. But then, I realized that he must have actually spent a certain amount of time fantasizing about this (it's an involved fantasy), and then, as the piece de resistance, he decided "I've got a great idea, I'll post this on the internet, so the entire world can see what a Totally Together Individual I am".

Yeah. He should have spent more time on his spelling and grammar.
Nah, it was simply a spur of the moment response. The lack of attention to such details as spelling and grammar should have cued you in on the amount of time and effort that was put into it, so to speak. In my opinion, you could find much worse comments than these to use a examples of what shouldn't be allowed or viewed as acceptable. Come on, if one views a comment or thought centered around political positioning threatening, violent or some way abusive this place is going to become another social pandering, touchy-feelly, liberal PC joke in the eyes of those who can actually read, count, constructively use their minds, sort thing out, apply their judgement and add the vigor or spice which keeps forums alive vs dying, so to speak. I support rules and civil codes of conduct. However, I do realize there is also a point or line in which rules can become counter productive, oppressive, eliminate the fun and adversely destroy the social integrity of a forum as well.

I assume Pink has me on ignore for good reasons as they would relate to him his position in this place or his cause. As you mentioned, I display some characteristics which probably in some form or way effectively counter or threaten Pinks stature, social existence or internal/external securities, so to speak. I don't view the 4T as my personal sound board or place to inform the world of my meager or unhappy existence. Fortunately, I'm actually quite content with my position or place in society. True, I'm a person who's pretty much got it together, so to speak. For this, I tend to draw a ton of attacks or flack from certain social spheres or cliques within the 4T community. One of which, I recently nudged or tapped with a relatively harmless form of intellectual reasoning. BTW, I'm not whining about my social treatment. In my opinion, it's just the way that it is with some people or in some parts of the 4T town, so to speak.







Post#147 at 07-05-2008 11:30 AM by jamesdglick [at Clarksville, TN joined Mar 2007 #posts 2,007]
---
07-05-2008, 11:30 AM #147
Join Date
Mar 2007
Location
Clarksville, TN
Posts
2,007

Quote Originally Posted by K-I-A 67 View Post
Nah, it was simply a spur of the moment response. The lack of attention to such details as spelling and grammar should have cued you in on the amount of time and effort that was put into it, so to speak...However, I do realize there is also a point or line in which rules can become counter productive, oppressive, eliminate the fun and adversely destroy the social integrity of a forum as well...
-I found your post disturbing, if for no other reason than the time I suspect it took you to create that fantasy; if that was truly "spur of the moment", then that's actually more disturbing- how would something like that just pop into your head? Please don't tell me how creative you are.


Quote Originally Posted by K-I-A 67 View Post
...In my opinion, you could find much worse comments than these to use a examples of what shouldn't be allowed or viewed as acceptable...
-I wouldn't put your single post on quite the same level as Pink Splice's strangulation fantasy, which he started on one post, and then explored in depth on a second post. But your post was disturbing in charachter, and unneccessary.

Quote Originally Posted by K-I-A 67 View Post
...I assume Pink has me on ignore for good reasons as they would relate to him his position in this place or his cause...
-Pink Splice put me on "Ignore" (supposedly) after he started disagreeing with things I posted of a politicial nature. Yes, PS's excuse was that my posts were "too long", but he didn't have a problem with that as long as my posts were what he probably considered to be "safe" issues on "non-partisan" military topics.

I'd read about his nastiness, but I didn't see the "Strangulation Fantasy" until last week.

Oh well. I always give a veteran a break, up to a point.







Post#148 at 07-05-2008 02:28 PM by Ragnarök_62 [at Oklahoma joined Nov 2006 #posts 5,511]
---
07-05-2008, 02:28 PM #148
Join Date
Nov 2006
Location
Oklahoma
Posts
5,511

Black swans and Poker

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
Rebel: I've had aces full of tens beaten by quad threes bust me out of a tournament. The winner of that hand was most ungracious (Rags can describe a trash-talker player).
It's normally the odds on winner who cusses when his hand is cracked. It's usually someone who ALWAYS thinks pocket aces wins in a 3-6-12 game. The actual odds are about 37%. That means they get cracked 63% of the time. Still, I'd take getting dealt pocket aces every hand, instead of the usual 1/220 chance. I got cussed out by playing KQ clubs. I raised pre-flop, flop was 9-10 clubs, rag. Turn was the J clubs. River, a rag.The cusser had A/4 of clubs for the nut flush, but it was he who didn't notice the str8 flush. Since it was heads up, he raised, I re-raised, until we were both all in. After all that, I turned my cards for a str8 flush prize and the other player went off on a rant and left the table.


I simply stood up, bowed, and went off for steak and eggs.
Yup. Been there, done that. What can you do? Been on both sides of the bad beat thing.

That knocked me out of a WSOP at the original Horseshoe on Fremont Street. I had won a $10,000 satellite to get in.
Not to state that you are this. However, satellites are how fish + dumb luck get to the WSOP.

Rags: I had Ace of Spades, Ace Of Diamonds. Flop came Ace of Hearts, 10 clubs, 10 diamonds. I went all in. He called. Turn was 3 of clubs, river 3 of diamonds.
Geez. My logic would put you on a hand with at least 1 ace or 1 ten. Pocket 3's is a muck. My guess is you raised pre-flop, which would lead me to that conclusion. Either pocket 10's or A-Big , you have to raise. Of course the AA comes into play as well as a possibility, as well as 10-J or 9-10 suited.

He had pocket threes, Spade-Hearts.
The flop didn't match that hand. A paired flop only matches a few hands.

How angry would you have been? I just stood up and walked away. Didn't say a word.
I couldn't be angry. Did he get knocked out? If so I'd make sure to get at the side table he was at. Shoot I'd like to know who he is if he plays in Lake Charles. I've been nailed by a 2 outer on the river. I had a set of 9's go down to a river Q with the other player with pocket Q's. OTOH, I caught a 1 outer to a str8 flush on the river once. Really goofy hand. I flop a flush, the other guy flops 2 pr. The turn boats him, and the river str8 flushes me.

At that time, steak and eggs dinners cost $2.89, at a little hole in the wall just north of Cheyenne on US 93. Had dinner, and went back to my quarters and just laid down for the night.
That's how I play. I think it's just an INTP thing myself. I just shrug off bad beats and rebuy or if it's late, just call it a night. It only took one "tilt" session to break me of that habit. Blew through $380.00 from doing that. It was I who was stupid. I also duly marked that down in my poker notebook.

Rebel, I do not think that you, or anyone else here has anything to worry about from me.
I would tend to agree. I was in my 20's during aforementioned "tilt" session. Some other dude was giving me some grief and I challenged him to arm wrestle. I won that, but good grief, the whole poker room was watching. Point being, I made an utter a$$ of myself. So, I rather doubt Wally got so ticked off to start going down the physical road in a poker room.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP

There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."







Post#149 at 07-05-2008 02:54 PM by Ragnarök_62 [at Oklahoma joined Nov 2006 #posts 5,511]
---
07-05-2008, 02:54 PM #149
Join Date
Nov 2006
Location
Oklahoma
Posts
5,511

Quote Originally Posted by Child of Socrates View Post
I don't think you should say anything online that you wouldn't be willing to say in person.
I think this gem of wisdom should be part of the rules.

1. Threats: One would think this should be obvious. This is actually ILLEGAL and can be prosecuted.
2. Spam. Again, obvious. This is also illegal and very annoying.
3. Ad-homs. As a moderator elsewhere, I can go with what ever decision Craig finally come too. Warning. This usually ends up as yuck for any moderator. Free speech vs. "ad-homs are petty".
4. Cuss words. These are allowed, but like ad-homs, this will be yuck.
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP

There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."







Post#150 at 07-06-2008 10:19 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
07-06-2008, 10:19 AM #150
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by jamesdglick View Post
...and I included Playwrite's quote. It is a valid criticism of Playwrite's assessment of US stocks from 1995-2000. So it was not disingenous, nor does not mis-represent his "train of thought", or give it a "different meaning". Perhaps PW would like to offer a different example?
On this thread, my complaint had to do with you parsing out my "go into the light" as your example of "cute smiley face afterward", when, in fact, my post was the exact opposite of that little trick.

You choose instead to reference an exchange on another thread regarding your snake oil scheme for SS privatization; that's okay by me because it too shows how disingenuous and mis-representative your parsing tends to be.

My original post regarded your questionable prowess at your being, as you suggested, a potential successful investment guru. I questioned your investment sense given that you were out of stocks for the five years of one of the greatest bull runs in history. Further, your lack of ability as a timely investor was within the context that market timing, whether with a passive or active investment strategy, is critical - if the great Jimboy had relative mediocre returns during a period of greatest returns, how could he be advising others to play casino with their SS monies? Given the huge capital gains in that period, your post suggesting that I didn't factor in consideration of dividends would, in full context, be simply inane. However, you parse the notion and inter-spaced in a way to attempt to make the point that I have left something important out of the analysis. That's disingenuous if not fraudulent.

Further, your suggesting that I left out "stocks haven't done much better since 2002" is also inane not only within the context of the point being that you were out of the stock market from '95 to 2000, but also in regard to the larger question of your investment prowess given that, as you had previously stated, it was the year 2000 when you started to reinvest into stocks. However, your parsing and inter-spacing attempts again to use my post (that otherwise within contex makes clear your farcical investment sense) to falsly imply that I am leaving out some important data.

Now, go ahead, and spend your day at the library, cruising through every one of my posts, your posts, and perhaps those of others to patch together various parse in yet another attempt to form some pathetic sophomoric response. At closing time, after flicking the lights in what must have become a ritual for them, they'll scoot you out. And then, its that lonely walk back to that empty trailer... again
... rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.
Last edited by playwrite; 07-06-2008 at 10:11 PM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite
-----------------------------------------