Here is another aspect of Atonement versus Advancement that I thought I would put out there for discussion: It appears to me that no one stands out as articulating Atonement more memorably than Martin Luther King, whereas no one does so for Advancement more so than Ronald Reagan. Is there a pattern here? If so, how has it shown up in other saecula?
I am unfamiliar with the theory espoused on this thread. But by now it seems to be obvious that this 4T in no way seems to resemble the last one. There is no shared sacrifice around a common cause, at least not yet. We seem to be in a state of limbo where no one has a clue as to what needs to be done to get the country and society back on track. As I pointed out on another thread recently, the Consciousness Revolution 2T seems to have ushered in what now seems to be a permanent trend toward a Me-First Society. Shared sacrifice is nowhere on the menu.
Oh contraire, mon frere.Originally Posted by Brian Beecher
"The only Good America is a Just America." .... pbrower2a
Well, this 4T resembles the last 4T in one respect - economic distress.
Ahem, how someone who lived through the 1930s, saw the decade:
~Chas'88To begin with, I turn bark time. I reverse it to that quaint period, the thirties, when the huge middle class of America was matriculating in a school for the blind. Their eyes had failed them or they had failed their eyes, and so they were having their fingers pressed forcibly down on the fiery Braille alphabet of a dissolving economy.
In Spain there was revolution. Here there was only shouting and confusion.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
So the period after the Crisis of 2100 will be the Age of Aquarius?
Last edited by TimWalker; 04-03-2012 at 10:53 PM.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/gallu...-vote-for-him/
Interesting article suggests that Obama's support comes mainly from Millennials and somewhat from Boomers (Atonement). Xers and Silent lean toward Romney (Advancement). While Millennials are not exactly excited about this election, the 64 to 29 percent breakdown shows that Atonement will clearly be established by the end of the turning.
Post-Reconstruction
Here's an article that I thought screamed "Alternating Paradigm" at play. It bespeaks of our nation's attempt to complete what the Civil War Saeculum left unresolved in terms of Atonement.
http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/...ama/?hpt=hp_c1
Excerpt:
~Chas'88Parallels to country's racist past haunt age of Obama
This is the second in an occasional series on issues of race, identity and politics ahead of Election Day, including a look at the optics of politics.
By John Blake, CNN
(CNN) - A tall, caramel-complexioned man marched across the steps of the U.S. Capitol to be sworn into office as a jubilant crowd watched history being made.
The man was an African-American of mixed-race heritage, an eloquent speaker whose election was hailed as a reminder of how far America had come.
But the man who placed his hand on the Bible that winter day in Washington wasn't Barack Obama. He was Hiram Rhodes Revels, the first African-American elected to the U.S. Senate.
His election and that of many other African-Americans to public office triggered a white backlash that helped destroy Reconstruction, America’s first attempt to build an interracial democracy in the wake of the Civil War.
To some historians, Revels' story offers sobering lessons for our time: that this year's presidential election is about the past as well as the future. These historians say Obama isn't a post-racial president but a "post-Reconstructionist" leader. They say his presidency has sparked a white backlash with parallels to a brutal period in U.S. history that began with dramatic racial progress.
Some of the biggest controversies of the 2012 contest could have been ripped from the headlines of that late 19th-century era, they say: Debates erupt over voting rights restrictions and racial preferences, a new federal health care act divides the country, an economic crisis sparks a small government movement. And then there's a vocal minority accusing a national black political leader of not being a "legitimate" U.S. citizen.
All were major issues during Reconstruction, an attempt to bring the former Confederate states back into the national fold and create a new era of racial justice. And many of the same forces that destroyed Reconstruction may be converging again, some scholars and historians say.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
If we are in an Atonement Crisis--such as JDW has proposed we are, perhaps it would behoove us to examine what exactly are some endgame scenarios from previous "atonement" situations?
Let's start with the most recent, as that'll be the easiest. Atonement was definitely a strong part of the Civil War era crisis. In fact Lincoln and Americans came to see the conflict as God's punishment on us for failing to live up to our own professed ideals, that all men were created equal. And with Lincoln's Death, people viewed it as a Christ-like action, that Lincoln had died for the sins of the country, that America was deserved of even more punishment, but Lincoln had died to spare us from that. Does that mean we end triumphant in the end? Not exactly. Does this mean that some "get the message" and stop seeking to punish former Confederates--the early Reconstruction period is a testament that they didn't. After the death of Lincoln and the abomination of Johnson's reconstruction plan, Radical Republicans were moved and felt compelled to punish the South for its sin of slavery.
So in this case while outright fighting might stop, a perceived unfulfilled call for atonement drives the policy forward from Lincoln's death--that yes, Lincoln died for the nation's sin, but that there were still those who lived who didn't recognize or accept this gospel, and by God, they would by the time that the Northern Radical Republicans were through with them--or so they thought. The mood loses favor by 1870 with the general populace, and the Radical Republicans lose seats and influence in Congress subsequently in 1872, 1874, and 1876. By 1877 Reconstruction ends completely and there seems to be no desire for any more Atonement.
What was Atonement about the Glorious Revolution Crisis? It wasn't so much atonement in England, but in America we see the desire for atonement push the small town of Salem to hold Witch Trials. They had far too long simply accepted outsiders and unfaithful Puritans amongst their flock, and as such those outsiders were now threatening the safety of their children, so now those outsiders must pay. Atonement also comes into play after the Salem Witch Trials as those who pushed for the trials in the first place were now made to re-evaluate their actions and be forced to be open to ideas that were pushing America in the frontier and mercantile trade--two things to which old Puritanism could not adapt to. I'm sure there's much more to explore about the Glorious Revolution Crisis in America as I'll be researching it further. I know in England a lot of the Glorious Revolution Crisis was mostly to deal with the ousting of the Catholic line of the Stuart monarchy that England had allowed itself to return to after the failures of the English Civil War to bring about a strong Republic. Their atonement was to retreat from the retreat back to Catholic Stuarts to a Protestant Stuart bloodline.
Prior to that we have the Wars of the Roses Crisis which was in a sense a Civil War of Atonement based upon the idea that a great "sin" had been committed in previously unseating God's chosen king in Richard II years and years earlier. Such an unseating made possible for other contenders to the throne to claim power and fight for it and as such set the stage for the War of the Roses to be possible. There was a change in viewpoint that occurred with the forced abdication of Richard II, it began the idea that any nobleman with the right bloodline could be king. It no longer was only God's will, but that any nobleman had the opportunity if they had the will to pursue it.
One of the key issues with atonement saeculums is that we are paying the price for our "sins" that's the language of atonement. So what is the biggest "sin" that we've been living for the past saeculum? Or what are the biggest candidates?
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Destroying the enviorment? Illegal wars?
I'd say destruction of the environment and biosphere. It is not only seen as a practical issue, which it is (because we have to live here!) but by all sides as a moral issue. I think the illegal wars are going to fade into 3T obscurity and/or be seen as precursors to whatever the big 4T war will be. And the issue of the 4T war will, at its root, be either fossil fuels or water or both.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."
"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.
There seems to be an anomaly. Take Obamacare. It doesn't seem to fit Atonement-but it does seem to fit Advancement, in intent. This 4T may already be iconoclastic. I can imagine other things playing out as Advancement, such as the legalization of medical marijuana. On the other hand, other possibilities could have an Atonement flavor, such as very high taxes on the 1%. [Other possibilities may be neither, such a cyber warfare, which would be best dealt with with Nomad pragmatism (cyber warfare may be covert, so there may be no target to strike back at)]. A miss mash of two different paradigns?
Like I say, you can only push the alternating paradigm so far. 4Ts have a lot in common. End of prohibition? 14th amendment?
In a sense this new Progressive era could be viewed as another step in a series of reform eras: the original Progressive period, the New Deal, and the Great Society. So we may be seeing the final gasp of what the Missionaries started, a sort of grandchild period of reform. On the other hand, another idea-electoral reform-has been mentioned, and could be considered Advancement, but wasn't really part of this series; the Missionaries were concerned with the economic system, but basically left the political system alone.
Yes I agree, although the women's vote was electoral reform; part of the progressive movement, but achieved in the 3T; and 18 year olds voting in the years just following the Great Society and its war.
S&H commented that Awakenings are almost entirely endogenous to the cycle. So perhaps 2Ts would be the purest examples of the alternating paradigm.
Just thought I would check in and see if there was still enough interest in the S&H theory to justify writing again? (In other words, is there an opportunity for a political "truce" to where we can actually explore the significance of current and past events?)
In comparison to 2012? Yeah, dude, you should be fine for the most part. By all means, start talking about the theory
Failure to live up to our mantras of freedom. Failure to live up to our mantras that all men are created equal, again. Failure to do what's necessary for justice to prevail. Relegating our self governance to corporate interest. Committing empire. Excess consumption. Instant gratification. Failure to acknowledge ugly truths over pretty lies.
Those are some of the major candidates in my mind.
I don't know if there is an "atonement" saeculum. I think I posted something on this a few months ago, but I don't remember what or where. But all the saeculums involve making progress toward the ideals of the country. In order to do this, problems need to be corrected. The problems get articulated and confronted during Awakenings, and get partially solved in fourth turnings. That was the case with Revolution with its ideal of liberty for some, and the problem of the misconduct of the King, and the Civil War with the ideal of equal protection of the law and the problem of slavery, and the Depression with the ideal of equality and the problem of financial abuse.
This time we have still-more financial abuse and oligarchy to take care of, as well as abuse of the environment. Our commercial society based on over-consumption fits into these two problems. As we move forward, we have in mind ideals of sustainability, love of our Earth, fairness and greater equal opportunity, and recovery of true meaning and purpose in life. The need for peace and multilateral world governance was also an ideal of this saeculum, as well as of the previous one. This time, the notion exists that world peace is possible and we can go beyond war.
Stay tuned!
Before I begin – One of the things that I appreciated about S&H’s books is that they appeared both balanced and neutral regarding politics. I think we should strive for that objectivity among ourselves in order to make further discussion meaningful. In other words, let’s try to avoid looking for which political group to blame and simply note how the waves of generational dynamics play a role in where politicians fail or succeed. That being said, I think some of you are selling the APT short.
For review, the American High was an Advancement era (which is all the Boomers knew, growing up). The Consciousness revolution was an Atonement Awakening. Here are the key elections in recent times that have shown the general mood toward these two paradigms:
1974 – The “Watergate babies” rode an Atonement wave into congress.
1976 – Suppressed (Atonement) GI Jimmy Carter rides same wave against Advancement GI Gerald Ford. (Notice how Carter came across as more in touch with the people than Ford.)
1980 – Because Atonement bloomed too early (while GIs still had power and influence) and with the help of Jonesers, Ronald Reagan rode the wave of Advancement resurgence to beat Carter. (Notice how Reagan came across as more competent than Carter.)
1992 – Atonement Boomer, Bill Clinton was elected, after being perceived as clearly more in touch than Advancement GI George Bush. (Advancement was not really dead; it’s just that Advancement Silent Ross Perot allowed Atonement to divide and conquer.)
1994 – Advancement seemed to make a comeback in Congress via the Contract with America and the opposition to HillaryCare.
1996 – Another matchup between Atonement Boomer Clinton and an Advancement GI (in this case, Bob Dole), with Perot as the spoiler. Once again, Atonement wins.
1998 – Not necessarily an election phenomenon, the Clinton impeachment perhaps marked the transformation of the Republicans from an Advancement party to an Atonement party. [Note that the issues surrounding impeachment centered originally on financial dealings. If the allegations proved to be true, the president’s ability to do his job could be considered compromised. Then it morphed into allegations of rape and coercion. By the time of the actual impeachment, however, the focus was on a single sexual relationship that happened to be consensual.]
2008 – Just as in 2000 and 2004, an Atonement GOP ticket faced an Atonement Democrat ticket. The difference was that the country was burned out on Boomers. While the election itself was not Advancement versus Atonement, the historic result was a clearly a victory for the latter. However, Advancement reemerged via the Tea Party movment.
2012 – In the closest thing in this century to an Advancement ticket, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (who brought Tea Party support with him) presented themselves as having the competency to deal with the nation’s financial issues. However, the Obama campaign successfully portrayed them as out of touch with the common man. Romney was shell shocked when the electorate once again chose Atonement.
So, the Democrats have been Atonement at least since 1992, and the Republicans have been mostly Atonement since 1998. The Tea Party movement is the holdout and should effectively disappear by the end of this 4T (which I call a “Quenching,” rather than a “Crisis,” until I can come up with a better term). Whatever may be happening behind the scenes, by appearance the president is effective in cajoling the opposition by suggesting that the Republicans are not Atonement enough. That seems to be enough to cause them to pull their punches at key moments.
Meanwhile, Russia’s Advancement 4T is about a decade behind our own Atonement 4T. (Their Atonement mood crumbled with the Soviet system.) President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric has none of the sanctimony of his Cold War predecessors. One thing I am particularly interested in watching is the escalation of words between Putin and Obama. It may be too soon to say, but it seems to have the flavor of Obama challenging Putin morally and Putin challenging Obama intellectually.
Fast forward to the next Awakening: The next Prophet generation (whom I call the “New Worlders,” for their Huxley-like Advancement vision) will laugh at their elders being shocked by their insensitivity. Millennials will wring their hands that their children are heartless, while the New Worlders will question whether their parents have brains.
Isn't this theory fun!
Here's my latest model for the cycle:
2T - AWAKENING
3T - MEDIATION
4T - CONSOLIDATION
1T - ESTABLISHING
If we thing this through, with respect a single paradigm, we see that what was awakened in the 2T is once and for all established in the following 1T, after going through the above metamorphosis. I haven't been particularly enthused about the terms "Crisis" and "High," because they do not necessarily hold true for every saeculum. I don't think anyone can doubt, though, that the attitude of the 1960s is rapidly wiping out any remnants of "traditional American values" circa 1950.
The consolidation, simply put, is the result of the collective power of a Hero generation to change what is, or is not, acceptable. At some point, dissenters, overwhelmed by the shear numbers, will give up. Then the 1T will begin, and the Heroes will be free to redefine society - for 20 years or so.
The Alternating Paradigm theory, or the double rhythm theory, is a good one; I was probably the first one here to propose it. However, in correcting the theory, one can over-correct it. You can see a double rhythm, and characterize each rhythm; but the basic saecular rhythm also continues.
If you try to just expand the saeculum into two saeculums, I don't think you'll find that it's appropo. That's what you do if you say: "Fast forward to the next Awakening: The next Prophet generation (whom I call the “New Worlders,” for their Huxley-like Advancement vision) will laugh at their elders being shocked by their insensitivity. Millennials will wring their hands that their children are heartless, while the New Worlders will question whether their parents have brains."
How can that be, when the millennials of THIS saeculum, not to mention the Xers, are already practically insensitive and heartless, according to boomers like me; and millennials and Xers already question whether boomers have brains.
So it doesn't work to turn the (worldly) "advancement" saeculum into nothing but a giant 4T/1T, and the (sensitive) "atonement" saeculum into a giant 2T/3T. The turnings still apply too.
The nomads and civics of this cycle have already gone so far back toward the worldly, secular, brain-oriented atiitudes, that a new spiritual awakening already seems necessary. All you have to do to verify this fact is to read this forum.
And there was plenty of sensitivity, romanticism and spirituality in the Awakening at the turn of the 20th century, and plenty of entrepreneurship, world-change and technical invention in the recent 2T and 3T.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 06-26-2014 at 08:39 PM.
Hey, whatever you're smoking, its obviously good shit.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
