Originally Posted by
'58 Flat
One of my betes noires is on prominent display these days - and that is the use of static as opposed to dynamic analysis, as is being done with these polls showing a majority of the country as a whole favoring this gun-control provision or that gun-control provision.
And it is static and not dynamic because it neglects to focus on the only numbers that would really matter in the grand scheme of things - and that is what percentage of people support various gun-control measures in Congressional districts located in red states and currently represented by white Democrats.
For there is where the Dems got utterly blitzed in 1994 after passing the original assault weapons ban - and will get utterly blitzed again in 2014 if they are "successful" this time around.
The 'static model' is the assumption that the political realities are much as the were in 1994. They are not. 1994 was 3T; 2013 is 4T (and I have no cause to believe that the Crisis Era will come to an end before the 2014 election. Democrats are in the majority in the Senate; Republicans are in the majority in the House. The Republican majority in the House is far shakier than the Democratic majority in the Senate. In a 4T people are more willing to undergo some limitations on their impulses to save something even more precious.
President Obama has chosen to pit Republicans against each other on gun control. Republicans are caught with conflicting interests on firearms -- the conservative agenda of law and order and the conservative agenda of profit maximization for gun manufacturers. This President knows where the rifts are. If one must choose between law and order and profit maximization that allows America to become an armed camp I would choose law and order. Armed camps have a poor record on human rights and public safety; without law and order, civil liberties vanish.
One difference between Barack Obama and many prior liberals, Barack Obama was a community organizer and not a limousine liberal. He may have had to dodge a mugger on occasion. He has no illusion that the bad guys are victims of oppression (they are the oppressors!) deserving sympathy and leniency. He has never shown himself 'soft on crime', but he can turn that calumny against anyone who opposes gun control.
The urban thugs will be incarcerated for violations of any new gun laws or freshly-enhanced enforcement of existing gun laws. That said, innocent people such as small children will less likely be hit by bullets in turf wars of urban gangs. Such is a trade that I would gladly make. Maybe the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School changes the discussion to legislation that can make life safer for far more people.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters