http://www.democraticunderground.com...ss=389x5227391

This thread on DU started by a Latin American poster that says he lived through a civil war and claims that there are organized elements on the Loony Right that are trying to start one scared the bejeebees out of me.

Originally Posted by Odin

http://www.democraticunderground.com...ss=389x5227391

This thread on DU started by a Latin American poster that says he lived through a civil war and claims that there are organized elements on the Loony Right that are trying to start one scared the bejeebees out of me.

I've thought about starting a thread about this for the past week. I don't have any answers, but for the first time in a while, I'm frightened by the chatter I am reading on certain websites. I am also chilled by the reaction I am getting in my very liberal town whenever I talk about (well, preach) the need to know our neighbors and to form a cohesive community. My pastors get it, and so do some of the folks at my church... but mostly, people don't get it at all. They are still very much individualists. (I think that history will prove that the past 3T was a particularly insidious one.)

I am really praying that the economy stabilizes soon. I can't imagine that a real crash would play out the same way that it did in the 1930s. This time, we are so very balkanized until I am starting to expect violence and everyone playing the victim. I can't see Boomers or Xers pulling together, and the Millennials are still too young to make up the majority of householders...

Yes. I'm frightened.

Living in the midst of the Right Wing militiaesque portion of the midwest, I have to wonder how paleo-conservative aspirations to revolution would play out.

- Most of my community (right, left and independent) vocally endorses anything the government can do to end the economic crisis. I've heard a lot of conservative types mutter endorsements for homeowner bailouts and stimulus package road projects, school referb projects, etc. The fringe types naturally utter little outside of conspiracy theory and don't have much purchase with the thinking, working, mortgage paying public anyhow. Maybe at 47 years I'm still a little wet behind the ears, but I have a hard time seeing significant push in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Ohio for "revolution", "revolt" .

- Shotguns, AK47's, M-4's and a few grenades and home made bombs, a revolution do not make. Terrorism yes, but a revolution no. America has a tender belly for war. We can get behind it on someone else's soil, but not behind our neighbor's garage. Some see this as a weakness in American character however I see it as, well smart. Smart and self-preserving. In this instance I think any attempt at a revolution by the right wing gun nut neo-conservative element would be met with little patience not only by the government and law enforcement, but by aunts, uncles, brothers, sisters, neighbors and drinking buddies. In this age, blowing up federal buildings, shooting senators and neighborhood organizers, etc. is too much like the terror we see on the nightly news. If you sponsor a War on Terror, you've painted yourself into a corner where you dont have an adaquate answer to that age old question -----"what's the difference between a terrorist and a freedom fighter" A militant right-wing movement would have a hard time explaining itself to anyone including the mostly moderate and peace loving right.

- How many US service men and women would give a coup or revolutionary movement any thought? Really folks, after fighting in Afgani mountains and Iraqi cities, do you think even the most right wing of our foot soldiers would advocate street fighting from Blockbuster video to Home Depot? Would you see the special forces who've been weened on the mission of bringing democracy to other countries aborting democracy here at home? Our military is like no other on earth at the most fundamental level. The private soldier is expected to be a thinking individual capable of taking command when needed and ready to call bullshit on his superiors when needed. Besides, he's often there for the college education anyhow, not for holy war.

- Police. Even this repository for frustrated fascists isn't wacked enough to support the right-wing. Remember, they're unionized.

- Conspiracy and coup in DC then? This is about the only option they have. False flag attacks followed by states of emergency and marshal law. It's not out of the question, but it presumes a lot of constants that are 2T and 3T in nature. In our current state of 3T, 4T cusp existence, I dont think it's likely, or, likely to succeed. You need a weak government that's stultified by bureaucratic inaction. We don't have that. You need an apathetic, disengaged citizenry. We dont have that either. You need a public that considers democracy lame and war on our home turf a resonable alternative. We dont have that.

Conspiracy theory is the comfortable couch of those made powerless by the unpopularity of their own views, and rendered impotent by their own inaction. This is not to say there are not conspiracies, just to say that spending much time speculating on the intentions of secret cabals is time wasted. When they pop their heads up it's time to start chopping, but in the mean time it's time to start working to make this country work in a manner that keeps things together and moving forward.

Should future events prove me completely wrong, I'll be happy to suit up and use my meger Xer skills to spill the blood of right wing SOBs so unhappy with the course democracy that they feel it their destiny to fight by means other than the ballot box. Such is what I owe the future.

Originally Posted by Skabungus

Conspiracy theory is the comfortable couch of those made powerless by the unpopularity of their own views, and rendered impotent by their own inaction. This is not to say there are not conspiracies, just to say that spending much time speculating on the intentions of secret cabals is time wasted. When they pop their heads up it's time to start chopping, but in the mean time it's time to start working to make this country work in a manner that keeps things together and moving forward.

Should future events prove me completely wrong, I'll be happy to suit up and use my meger Xer skills to spill the blood of right wing SOBs so unhappy with the course democracy that they feel it their destiny to fight by means other than the ballot box. Such is what I owe the future.

I'm sympathetic. I do anticipate some spill over from rhetoric to violence. The Republicans went from dominant to rejected rather quickly. The emotion is high. The commitment to the older values will remain strong for at least a few.

But it seems to me that it takes two to spiral. Acts of irrational violence from one side have to be met by an escalating response. There would have to be significant public backing by both sets of nuts, and a desire to escalate by leaders on both sides.

We shall see.

The New York TImes compares the public's anger at the AIG Bonus Babies with McCarthyism. A witch hunt? Do we really want to break out the torches and pitch forks and storm the rich suburbs?

The Problem With Flogging A.I.G.

Most of the action on this thread has been disgruntled conservatives making noise about Obama and company, but here's another theme which could conceivably develop in another direction.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

The New York TImes compares the public's anger at the AIG Bonus Babies with McCarthyism. A witch hunt? Do we really want to break out the torches and pitch forks and storm the rich suburbs?

The Problem With Flogging A.I.G.

Most of the action on this thread has been disgruntled conservatives making noise about Obama and company, but here's another theme which could conceivably develop in another direction.

How many elite media reporters and more to the point editors went to school, summer camp ect. with the same corporate MBA's and the politicans who are writing the blank checks that they now defend?
I'm not trying to slam this one particular article or advocating anyone grabbing torches and pitchforks, but when most lower income whites from western South Carolina no longer respect the established order, well we ain't 3T anymore by a long shot.
The freakin' elite, including the establishment media, is clueless.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

How many elite media reporters and more to the point editors went to school, summer camp ect. with the same corporate MBA's and the politicians who are writing the blank checks that they now defend?

I'm not trying to slam this one particular article or advocating anyone grabbing torches and pitchforks, but when most lower income whites from western South Carolina no longer respect the established order, well we ain't 3T anymore by a long shot.

The freakin' elite, including the establishment media, is clueless.

During the 1950s, the World War II debt was paid down with very heavy taxes on the rich. I suspect something like that is coming again. I suspect a good deal of the rumbling about torches and pitch forks might be or become about tax policy.

There is no doubt a lot of people are genuinely angry, and that they ought to be. The spirals ought to be watched. I just don't see the violence and rhetoric levels approximating what the Sons of Liberty did in revolutionary Boston, Bleeding Kansas, or Mussolini's and Hitler's political thug organizations as they worked their way into power.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

I just don't see the violence and rhetoric levels approximating what the Sons of Liberty did in revolutionary Boston, Bleeding Kansas, or Mussolini's and Hitler's political thug organizations as they worked their way into power.

On the other hand, it seems like the levels of violence that come about in the cores of 4Ts are always beyond what people would have anticipated going in.

And no one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

Originally Posted by Justin '77

On the other hand, it seems like the levels of violence that come about in the cores of 4Ts are always beyond what people would have anticipated going in.

And no one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

Some of this is true... though a lot of folks think we are in core 4T at this point, and the spirals of violence generally build up slowly during the 3T. There were certainly enough incidents during the Carter, Reagan, Bush 41 and Clinton 42 administrations to draw one's attention to the problem of militant Islam. A new spiral starting this late in the cycle would be unusual. While the transformation and violence of a 4T are large beyond anticipation, it takes a lot of preparation work to prime the People for the change and the violence. The major domestic 3T dialogue was between conservative Red and progressive Blue factions, with the bulk of both factions rejecting political violence.

This isn't to say that the Spanish Inquisition, the libertarians, or some other faction might not yet have a role to play. I'll continue to watch the news and contribute to this thread. I believe the spirals of rhetoric and violence should have had a somewhat greater role in the S&H books than they did.

Still, a new major faction coming in from nowhere to play a major role at this stage doesn't feel right.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Some of this is true... though a lot of folks think we are in core 4T at this point...
Still, a new major faction coming in from nowhere to play a major role at this stage doesn't feel right.

A lot of it does come down to where things are in terms of the cycle right now.
But wishing doesn't make it so. Even if you take the 9/11 attacks to have been the start of the 4T (which I think with the benefit of distance, vanishingly people now do), the turning is not even at its halfway point yet. And if, instead, you see Katrina (2005) as the start, then we've only scraped just into the edge (4 years of 20). Of course, there is the increasingly realistic possibility that both of those were late-3T for the nation as a whole, and that the economic crash is the actual marker date that fits best... in which case the 4T is not even a full year old yet.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

A lot of it does come down to where things are in terms of the cycle right now.

But wishing doesn't make it so. Even if you take the 9/11 attacks to have been the start of the 4T (which I think with the benefit of distance, vanishingly people now do), the turning is not even at its halfway point yet. And if, instead, you see Katrina (2005) as the start, then we've only scraped just into the edge (4 years of 20). Of course, there is the increasingly realistic possibility that both of those were late-3T for the nation as a whole, and that the economic crash is the actual marker date that fits best... in which case the 4T is not even a full year old yet.

I still believe 9/11 triggered the rest of it. Before 9/11, it did not seem prudent or worth it to risk the life of a single American soldier in order to fight militant Islam or prevent a genocide. The US use of military force was virtually handcuffed by popular opinion. The willingness to take action is the most basic values shift that one might associate with a 3T / 4T cusp. That, and the economic stresses of war led to the lack of preparedness for Katrina and the later economic collapse. It all came from there.

Thus, I see the first Bush 43 term as the 'On to Richmond' false regeneracy phase, as a military solution was sought without addressing core causes. With Katrina, the votes started clearly shifting and the 'business as usual' denial attitude became rarer. The economic collapse and Obama's election? I'd only use the phrase 'core 4T' at that point. No doubt about it from there, I would say.

But I suspect you are right. At this point, that discussion isn't going to be settled. We might have to wait until we recognize the 4T 1T cusp symptoms and measure back 20 years to settle things.

But regardless of where one puts the border, the spiral of violence generally starts well back in the 3T. It is hard to look at a long slowly increasing sequence of events and declare a definitive border. Still, the Sons of Liberty were active well before Lexington and Concord, and John Brown and the abolitionists had much to say and do well before Ft. Sumter. The truly important spirals of violence start long before the violence goes full scale military.

A spiral of violence that starts only with the decisive event that clearly marks core 4T is running late. Thus, a group that formed to protest the election of Abe Lincoln or to support the British military occupation of Boston would best be seen as an outgrowth of something that had been going on before. Yes, the last catalysts in a cascade will start some new movements and organizations, but in terms of putting a new philosophy or vision on the table, no, they will only refine and update something that has been building for quite some time.

Thus, I remain dubious timing wise. The primary dialectic is already there. The key issues and solutions are already on the table. The remaining surprise is in how far the solutions will have to be taken before the issue is considered solved sufficiently that one can transition into 1T 'no more argument we know how it is to be done now' mode. The 4T 1T cusp comes when the solutions applied are widely seen as having worked, and most folks are ready to stop fighting it and build what is needed for a full implementation.

We're clearly no where near there yet.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

We might have to wait until we recognize the 4T 1T cusp symptoms and measure back 20 years to settle things.

It's a date.

But regardless of where one puts the border, the spiral of violence generally starts well back in the 3T. It is hard to look at a long slowly increasing sequence of events and declare a definitive border. Still, the Sons of Liberty were active well before Lexington and Concord, and John Brown and the abolitionists had much to say and do well before Ft. Sumter. The truly important spirals of violence start long before the violence goes full scale military.

For an interesting perspective on a current spiral of violence, you might look to Mark Ames' Going Postal. There's been violence building all this time, but maybe not from the direction you've been watching. Ultimately, the question of which violence ends up being recognized as a part of the 4T buildup and what is simply put down to 3T dysfunction is going to have to wait to be answered until at least our scheduled playdate. But rest assured -- there's been violence enough to be called a spiral if things go that way.

Lots to talk about here.

On 3T violence I just read Dennis Lehane's new novel, The Given Day, set in Boston,. his favorite city and mine, in 1918-19. It's a very violent story (climaxing at the time of the Boston police strike.) I never realized this but what happened during that strike was an outburst of anarchy comparable to the 2T riots in Watts, Newark and Detroit, or the 3T riot in South Central. Meanwhile there had been a number of major race riots around the country at the same time.

But now to the main event. Seeing things comparatively as I always do--the great advantage of having begun as a modern European historian--I have no doubt, frankly, that the raw material for a strong neo-Fascist movement is out there. What seems to be lacking,. however, is any real organization. Talk radio, however disgusting, may be a blessing--it's better to let our loonies get their rocks off listening to Rush than by putting on uniforms,. marching around the streets, and beating up gays, blacks and liberals. Perhaps too the Republican party did us a favor by co-opting these guys (just as the Democrats did with the KKK in the South earlier.) At least it keeps them within the system!

To answer one question--about the military--you can totally trust me on this one: I doubt there are a dozen officers in the whole US military above the rank of Captain who would consider anything seditious for a moment. We just don't have that tradition. Also the whole mid-grade to senior officer corps is now Gen X, virtually, and they're not the kind to organize that kind of thing, in my opinion.

So. . .even though my name has been falsely invoked in the last week to suggest that Americans need to arm against President Obama. . . I don't see it happening yet.

See my blog for today on bonuses, by the way.

Though the hyperEvangelicals have apparently been trying to get their views and people into the officers corps, with varying success - more, I gather, up in Colorado Springs than elsewhere. Does anyone have any data on that?

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Lots to talk about here.

On 3T violence I just read Dennis Lehane's new novel, The Given Day, set in Boston,. his favorite city and mine, in 1918-19. It's a very violent story (climaxing at the time of the Boston police strike.) I never realized this but what happened during that strike was an outburst of anarchy comparable to the 2T riots in Watts, Newark and Detroit, or the 3T riot in South Central. Meanwhile there had been a number of major race riots around the country at the same time.

But now to the main event. Seeing things comparatively as I always do--the great advantage of having begun as a modern European historian--I have no doubt, frankly, that the raw material for a strong neo-Fascist movement is out there. What seems to be lacking,. however, is any real organization. Talk radio, however disgusting, may be a blessing--it's better to let our loonies get their rocks off listening to Rush than by putting on uniforms,. marching around the streets, and beating up gays, blacks and liberals. Perhaps too the Republican party did us a favor by co-opting these guys (just as the Democrats did with the KKK in the South earlier.) At least it keeps them within the system!

To answer one question--about the military--you can totally trust me on this one: I doubt there are a dozen officers in the whole US military above the rank of Captain who would consider anything seditious for a moment. We just don't have that tradition. Also the whole mid-grade to senior officer corps is now Gen X, virtually, and they're not the kind to organize that kind of thing, in my opinion.

So. . .even though my name has been falsely invoked in the last week to suggest that Americans need to arm against President Obama. . . I don't see it happening yet.

See my blog for today on bonuses, by the way.

Perhaps I'm being dismissive or misreading the situation, but...

Conservative talk radio hosts are the Eddie Haskells of American politics. They are the penultimate behind-your-back rebel. They'll stir up this ugly stuff among their listeners, and when one of said listeners takes their words to their logical conclusion (violence/terrorism), they will hem and haw and generally STFU while trying to deflect as much blame as possible. They are that bully kid who gets people into dangerous situations, but backs out when they realize what the consequences of their being in the situation are, leaving their followers to take the heat from authorities.

It would be a shame if deaths by political violence in the Ooh-Ess-Aaa were to (for the first time in some time) again exceed deaths by autoerotic asphyxiation (apparently 250-1000 per year in these United States).

Originally Posted by Linus

It would be a shame if deaths by political violence in the Ooh-Ess-Aaa were to (for the first time in some time) again exceed deaths by autoerotic asphyxiation (apparently 250-1000 per year in these United States).

Looking at things from the perspective of Darwin Award style "evolution in action," I'm not sure I'm quite in agreement... but autoerotic asphyxiation seems less likely to get totally out of hand. ™

Originally Posted by MillieJim

Perhaps I'm being dismissive or misreading the situation, but...

Conservative talk radio hosts are the Eddie Haskells of American politics. They are the penultimate behind-your-back rebel. They'll stir up this ugly stuff among their listeners, and when one of said listeners takes their words to their logical conclusion (violence/terrorism), they will hem and haw and generally STFU while trying to deflect as much blame as possible. They are that bully kid who gets people into dangerous situations, but backs out when they realize what the consequences of their being in the situation are, leaving their followers to take the heat from authorities.

The most dangerous such people )amd they need not be on the radio) are those who pretend to social superiority through class connections, religiosity, and cultural snobbery while fomenting hatred among the masses. They claim to be above it all yet pretend that their well-polished words in public are very different from what they say in less-public places. Erudite, aristocratic, and well-connected, they have their own class privilege to protect, and if they can divert anger from their own exploitation to innocent people toward people that the "rabble" that they pretend to loathe find strange and thus suspicious, they can keep exploiting the people. After all, the "others" might be some rival elite, like Jews. They have secret funds that allow them to be patrons of street violence as if they were members of the Medici family commissioning art. When inquiries about their deeds get closer than they put on airs. They then show their ancient estate, wine cellars, their horses, fine china. and their rare books -- or they show themselves at the symphony, opera, and theater whose current performance they might have sponsored.

"Who, ME? I have too much to lose!" such a person might proclaim while feigning innocence.

Such were the Arrow Cross in Hungary and the Iron Guard in Romania... with some impressive intellectuals and some well-placed aristocrats as leaders. The 1915 Klan was much like that, too, and it could have done much the same had it gotten the chance. These are the ethical equivalent of gangsters who order a mob hit during an intermission of La Traviata.

This just in: Charles Blow called Bobby Jindal, Michael Steel and Rush Limbaugh "the axis of drivel." Not bad!

I don't think this is apt to be the issue that brings on the Revolution, but somebody shot the civilian operator of a speed trap camera van in Arizona. It is violence against the government, sort of, but I can't really see this issue being at the core of the Revolution.

From the NY Times Speed Camera Operator Is Shot in Arizona

The Times, of course, put the article in their automotive section.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

I don't think this is apt to be the issue that brings on the Revolution, but somebody shot the civilian operator of a speed trap camera van in Arizona. It is violence against the government, sort of, but I can't really see this issue being at the core of the Revolution.

Arizona is a red state as is South Carolina and this may be a sign of a larger trend, namely the proud red states trying to run their governments on fines.
Within the last month, 4 people that I know have suffered traffic stops over minor items like burnt out taillights. In every case they have been given one or more tickets with fines of several hundred dollars each, no warning tickets at all. This rash of ticketing is occurring at both the state enforcement level and at the city and county level.

We have 150 year old schools sited next to railroad tracks and our county roads are riddled with potholes. One of those potholes popped a tire on my car this morning.
I'm a good driver and I never lost control of the car but I haven't seen a county road crew working on any roads in several months.
Yet this state doesn't believe in taking stimulus money. I'm not advocating violence against anyone but I realized that deferred maintenience of our roads is the likely reason my life was temporaraly in danger this morning. Therefore, I put in a call to a headhunter that a friend recommended to me a while back after the safety of myself and my car were assured. Of course she wasn't optimistic about my prospects of getting out of South Carolina quickly nor without taking a financial bath, but I've had enough. This state is trying to run its sorry excuse for a government on traffic fines. How can I blame talented out of staters for not coming here when I, a product of mostly state red culture, cannot stand the damned Kafkaesque nightmare that current right wing turns into when it controls real power.

Good luck, Rick -- and I'm glad you're OK.

Originally Posted by Child of Socrates

Good luck, Rick -- and I'm glad you're OK.

Thanks Kiff.
I honestly would advise anyone coming in this direction to avoid driving in South Carolina at night. Out of state plates are easy marks and I suspect that a lot of vehicles are suddenly developing light "problems" while passing through this state at night.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

A new spiral starting this late in the cycle would be unusual.

It depends on how late we are and also how you interpret previous Crises. If you are correct that 2001 marks the 3T/4T boundary, than I would agree that a spiral of violence is unlikely. However, if instead the boundary is at 2005 (the most common view here, I think) then we have a few more years before such a thing can be ruled out.

The NY Times reports an Abortion Doctor Shot to Death in Church

I was watching this sort of thing back in the Clinton years. For the most part the Pro Life movement is against death. I don't expect cheers from them advocating more such violence. I would think this ought to be an isolated incident.

Still, it is violence related to a culture wars issue, an indication that there are still violent extremists on the hard right.

Is it my imagination, or have there been a few more church shootings in the last several years than would be the norm? There is the old phrase 'going postal' that reflects a surge in mail men going violent a few decades back. The message of committing murder in church is interesting, especially in this case.