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Thread: The Spiral of Violence - Page 137







Post#3401 at 01-03-2013 08:58 PM by Vandal-72 [at Idaho joined Jul 2012 #posts 1,101]
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Quote Originally Posted by RyanJH View Post
For your consideration and comment (only 24 partial pages of reading)...

Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig, Principles for Effective Gun Policy, 73 Fordham Law Review 589 (2004).
Available at: http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/flr/vol73/iss2/8
Nice, balanced review.







Post#3402 at 01-03-2013 10:37 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Kepi View Post
Unfortunately we don't have decades. The amount we spend on law enforcement, courts, and corrections are killing a lot of state governments. We don't have the cash for that.

Meanwhile, when you're talking about fire arms and self defense, while a lot of people live in places with relatively short police response times, a lot live in places with excessively long police response times. Those response times aren't bound by jurisdiction. There will be some places in many if not most jurisdictions that are 30 minutes to an hour's response time while the rest of it enjoys a 10 minute response. National or even state legislation cannot handle both, and even local in most places are questionable.

While I think the self-defense opportunities of guns are overstated by gun lobbies, I still can't say it's right to take reasonable options away from people living in more difficult to reach areas. Those reasonable options include semiautomatic weapons and hollow point bullets. I also think giving them a dozen rounds in a mag to hit their target in a stressful situation isn't unreasonable. A lot of people need these things, not because of everyday situations, but because of extreme situations. Just like a hunter who gets reared up on by a bear he thought was dead. Not an every day thing, but an extreme situation requiring a degree of respect for urgency.

There's a lot of stupid things in gun culture, and it leads to a lot of dumb results, but persecuting the paranoid to the detriment of the larger, quieter responsible majority is stupid.
I know far too many people who are, on the record, A+ normal. But get them in a situation that is even slightly dodgy and they turn paranoid. I work with a guy who was in the same military organization I was, at about the same time. We both held top security clearances, and we are both engineers. We both have families, including children and grandchildren. On paper, we're pretty similar, but my coworker has a medium sized arsenal, including at least two 50-caliber sniper rifles and a "locked-out" full-auto capable assault weapon at home to "protect us from the government". Everyone one in the family has a sidearm or two, and they all spend hours every month at the range, honing their skills. At last count, he claimed to have "50 or 60 rifles, pistols and the like". Draw your own conclusions.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#3403 at 01-04-2013 12:41 AM by Kepi [at Northern, VA joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,664]
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My conclusions are more or less irrelevant, because there's nothing anyone can actively do to stop them that doesn't justify their paranoia. If you take away that guys guns, you just reinforce the paranoia in everyone who didn't have theirs taken, and guess what happens next? And it will go so on and so forth until someone does the smart thing: nothing.

That worked in finding Osama bin Laden, too. It's no coincidence that 2 years after we elected a president who ran on not caring about 9-11 that we finally killed bin Laden. While I wished he genuinely didn't care about 9-11 and broke down the nonsense surrounding it, getting bin Laden only stuck his neck out enough to get it chopped off because we shut up and relaxed. Same thing here. Doing nothing is frequently the most overlooked best policy.







Post#3404 at 01-04-2013 02:34 AM by Galen [at joined Aug 2010 #posts 1,017]
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Quote Originally Posted by Kepi View Post
My conclusions are more or less irrelevant, because there's nothing anyone can actively do to stop them that doesn't justify their paranoia. If you take away that guys guns, you just reinforce the paranoia in everyone who didn't have theirs taken, and guess what happens next? And it will go so on and so forth until someone does the smart thing: nothing.
Here is what a Russian writer has to say about gun control. He sounds like the people the liberals, more like socialists, like to vilify as paranoid even though he is historically very accurate. Even in the face of indefinite detention authorized by the NDAA and the Patriot the liberals will still say it can't happen here.
If one rejects laissez faire on account of mans fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.
- Ludwig von Mises

Beware of altruism. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil.
- Lazarus Long







Post#3405 at 01-04-2013 05:09 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Statistics on Gun Deaths & Injuries
Posted on Friday, November 16th, 2012
http://smartgunlaws.org/category/gun...ce-statistics/

Numbers after each sentence (or two) refer to references which you can see at the website.

In 2010, guns took the lives of 31,076 Americans in homicides, suicides and unintentional shootings. This is the equivalent of more than 85 deaths each day and more than three deaths each hour.1
73,505 Americans were treated in hospital emergency departments for non-fatal gunshot wounds in 2010.2
Firearms were the third-leading cause of injury-related deaths nationwide in 2010, following poisoning and motor vehicle accidents.3
Between 1955 and 1975, the Vietnam War killed over 58,000 American soldiers – less than the number of civilians killed with guns in the U.S. in an average two-year period.4
In the first seven years of the U.S.-Iraq War, over 4,400 American soldiers were killed. Almost as many civilians are killed with guns in the U.S., however, every seven weeks.5

Homicide
Guns were used in 11,078 homicides in the U.S. in 2010, comprising almost 35% of all gun deaths, and over 68% of all homicides.6
On average, 33 gun homicides were committed each day for the years 2005-2010.7
Regions and states with higher rates of gun ownership have significantly higher rates of homicide than states with lower rates of gun ownership.8
Where guns are prevalent, there are significantly more homicides, particularly gun homicides.9

Suicide
Firearms were used in 19,392 suicides in the U.S. in 2010, constituting almost 62% of all gun deaths.10
Over 50% of all suicides are committed with a firearm.11
On average, 49 gun suicides were committed each day for the years 2005-2010.12
White males, about 40% of the U.S. population, accounted for over 80% of firearm suicides in 2010.13
A study of California handgun purchasers found that in the first year after the purchase of a handgun, suicide was the leading cause of death among the purchasers.14
Firearms were used in nearly 44% of suicide deaths among persons under age 25 in 2010.15
More than 75% of guns used in suicide attempts and unintentional injuries of 0-19 year-olds were stored in the residence of the victim, a relative, or a friend.16
The risk of suicide increases in homes where guns are kept loaded and/or unlocked.17

Unintentional Deaths and Injuries
In 2010, unintentional firearm injuries caused the deaths of 606 people.18
From 2005-2010, almost 3,800 people in the U.S. died from unintentional shootings.19
Over 1,300 victims of unintentional shootings for the period 2005–2010 were under 25 years of age.20
People of all age groups are significantly more likely to die from unintentional firearm injuries when they live in states with more guns, relative to states with fewer guns. On average, states with the highest gun levels had nine times the rate of unintentional firearms deaths compared to states with the lowest gun levels.21
A federal government study of unintentional shootings found that 8% of such shooting deaths resulted from shots fired by children under the age of six.22
The U.S. General Accounting Office has estimated that 31% of unintentional deaths caused by firearms might be prevented by the addition of two devices: a child-proof safety lock (8%) and a loading indicator (23%).23
Last edited by Eric the Green; 01-04-2013 at 05:21 AM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#3406 at 01-04-2013 05:13 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Effectiveness of Large Capacity Ammunition Magazine Regulation
Posted on Monday, March 12th, 2012
http://smartgunlaws.org/category/eff...s-of-gun-laws/

The federal ban on large capacity ammunition magazines expired along with the federal assault weapon ban in 2004. Data on recovery of these magazines by law enforcement demonstrate that the federal ban on these dangerous devices was effective in reducing their availability and use.
While the federal assault weapon/large capacity ammunition magazine ban was in effect (1994 – 2004), the Virginia State Police experienced a steady decline in the number of firearms with large capacity magazines recovered in crimes, reaching a low of 10% in 2004. In 2005, the year after Congress failed to renew the ban, that number increased by 24%. By 2010, nearly 22% of guns recovered in crimes had large capacity magazines. Over time, it appears the prevalence of these magazines was declining while the federal law was in effect.1

1. David S. Fallis et al., About the Project: The Hidden Life of Guns, Wash. Post, Jan. 22, 2011, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...12204243.html; David S. Fallis & James V. Grimaldi, Virginia Data Show Drop in Criminal Firepower During Assault Gun Ban, Wash. Post, Jan. 23, 2011, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...T2010121406431. The Washington Post analyzed the effect in Virginia of the assault weapons ban on firearms with large capacity magazines. To do this, Post journalists reviewed data from the Criminal Firearms Clearinghouse, a database maintained by the Virginia State Police that tracks guns recovered by local law enforcement across the state. The database has information on more than 100,000 firearms recovered by more than 200 local police departments since 1993. [↩]
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#3407 at 01-04-2013 05:16 AM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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Tough gun control laws linked to lower death rates
January 3, 2013 | 8:00 am
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/cali...n-control.html

A San Francisco-based policy center on gun control laws has produced a report that says states with strict gun laws have the lowest gun-related death rates. In contrast, it reports, states with the highest per capita gun death rates have "weak" gun laws.

The study by the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence is touted by Sen. Leland Yee (D-San Francisco) as support for his own legislation tightening California's current assault weapon ban. The bill, SB47, would prohibit semiautomatic weapons from having devices that allow them to carry high-capacity magazines or easily be reloaded with multiple rounds of ammunition. A similar version of the bill failed to pass in 2012.

"It is a fact that strong gun laws work and weak laws result in the loss of innocent lives," Yee said.

Yee notes that the law center cited low per-capita gun death rates in Hawaii, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut -- states that the law center identified as having some of the toughest gun laws in the country.

He failed to mention the law center also included California on its list of states with the strongest gun control laws and lowest gun-related deaths. The center declares California has the toughest gun control laws in the nation and gives the state an "A minus" on its report card, a designation shared only with New Jersey and Massachussetts.

The highest per-capita gun death rates were in Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi -- states that the law center said have weak gun control laws.

The center was formed by Bay area lawyers in 1993 following an assault weapon rampage at a San Francisco law office that ended with 10 people dead and six wounded.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#3408 at 01-04-2013 05:22 AM by Kepi [at Northern, VA joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,664]
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I would never say it can't happen here, the reality is, though, a couple of families of guys with guns, even very nice guns, won't create a revolutionary presence. The ire of the masses, not the equipment of the individual, really makes all the difference. A disarmed populace would be every bit as dangerous as an armed populace, possibly more so as a disarmed populace is an agitated populace.

So it's not about it can or cannot happen here, it's about plausibility of victory, If someone comes from the the authorities to take something away from me, unless there's an active resistance, I'm giving it up, because otherwise I won't be on the outside to be the resistance next time around. I can fire off all the rounds I want, I wouldn't do an iota the damage as one angry mob would.

The folks who think they're somehow preparing to fight the new nazis or communists or whatever by training themselves to be a 1 man commando is more than a little deluded.







Post#3409 at 01-04-2013 09:52 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Galen View Post
Here is what a Russian writer has to say about gun control.
Couple of things about that blogger:

  • Something starts to smell not-right from the get-go. "Mat Rodina" is grammatically and colloquially incorrect, and sounds really awkward -- the Russian phrase is "Rodina-Mat".
  • It gets weirder when he calls the USA 'socialist'. I've yet to encounter a single Russian who though such an accusation was more than laughable (and to a lot, 'socialist' isn't a bad thing... unlike 'communist', of course).
  • He claims in the article you linked that Russians are disarmed -- something both factually untrue, and trivially disprovable. A visit to one of the gun stores in any city or town in Russia would suffice, as would a simple survey of one's neighbors.
  • So I poke through archives to get a better idea who this guy is. Lots of colloquial english, no foreign turns-of-phrase. He's been speaking english for a long time -- possibly since he was a kid.
  • The clincher, though, is the way the blogger tends to mis-spell his attempts to use Russian terms. He writes them as a person who has heard them but never seen them -- and what's more, as someone who has heard them only spoken in non-Russian accents. For example, 'apparatchek'; 'Bolshaviks'; 'Gia' (supposed to be "gaia", in Russian pronounced "gey-ah"); 'chenovnik'; etc, etc.



Long story short, there's all sorts of reason to think this blogger isn't even close to what he claims to be. I think you've been taken, Galen. And whoever linked you to that blog, too.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc ętre dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant ŕ moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce ętre dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#3410 at 01-04-2013 10:06 AM by David Krein [at Gainesville, Florida joined Jul 2001 #posts 604]
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And I'm trying to figure out how the Reds won the Civil War because of clandestine support from Washington.

Pax,

Dave Krein '42
"The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ, Moves on; nor all your Piety nor Wit shall lure it back to cancel half a line, Nor all your Tears wash out a word of it." - Omar Khayyam.







Post#3411 at 01-04-2013 10:15 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by David Krein View Post
And I'm trying to figure out how the Reds won the Civil War because of clandestine support from Washington.
Particularly when everyone knows Lenin got overt support from the Kaiser...

Honestly, though... it's a big country with a lot of people. You can run into all sorts of wacko theories. It's the way it is written that damns; not the content.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc ętre dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant ŕ moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce ętre dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#3412 at 01-04-2013 10:51 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Kepi View Post
I would never say it can't happen here, the reality is, though, a couple of families of guys with guns, even very nice guns, won't create a revolutionary presence. The ire of the masses, not the equipment of the individual, really makes all the difference. A disarmed populace would be every bit as dangerous as an armed populace, possibly more so as a disarmed populace is an agitated populace.
That runs counter to my experience. The more paranoid, the more guns. How the paranoia is achieved seems to be inconsequential. A lot of the paranoia has been stirred-up by the Glenn Becks of this world, so it often has a plitical tinge as well. In any case, the fear comes first.

Quote Originally Posted by Kepi ..
So it's not about it can or cannot happen here, it's about plausibility of victory, If someone comes from the the authorities to take something away from me, unless there's an active resistance, I'm giving it up, because otherwise I won't be on the outside to be the resistance next time around. I can fire off all the rounds I want, I wouldn't do an iota the damage as one angry mob would.

The folks who think they're somehow preparing to fight the new nazis or communists or whatever by training themselves to be a 1 man commando is more than a little deluded.
You live in NoVA, where this mindset is less prevalent. I live in Central VA, and it's common here. If you go to the mountain West, it's even more common. The mindset is not, in and of itself, a problem. It can become one quickly if events trigger a response. Look at the anti-Arab violence following 9/11. Today, the number of heaviliy armed and anxious is a lot higher thatn it was then. Would you like to hazzard a guess at the response to a similar act today? Even worse, how about a general economic collapse?

We don't need a real Red Dawn to start a guerilla war - just the fear of one.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#3413 at 01-04-2013 11:23 AM by RyanJH [at joined Jan 2011 #posts 291]
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Quote Originally Posted by Eric the Green View Post
Tough gun control laws linked to lower death rates
January 3, 2013 | 8:00 am
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/cali...n-control.html

A San Francisco-based policy center on gun control laws has produced a report that says states with strict gun laws have the lowest gun-related death rates. In contrast, it reports, states with the highest per capita gun death rates have "weak" gun laws.

The study by the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence is touted by Sen. Leland Yee (D-San Francisco) as support for his own legislation tightening California's current assault weapon ban. The bill, SB47, would prohibit semiautomatic weapons from having devices that allow them to carry high-capacity magazines or easily be reloaded with multiple rounds of ammunition. A similar version of the bill failed to pass in 2012.

"It is a fact that strong gun laws work and weak laws result in the loss of innocent lives," Yee said.

Yee notes that the law center cited low per-capita gun death rates in Hawaii, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut -- states that the law center identified as having some of the toughest gun laws in the country.

He failed to mention the law center also included California on its list of states with the strongest gun control laws and lowest gun-related deaths. The center declares California has the toughest gun control laws in the nation and gives the state an "A minus" on its report card, a designation shared only with New Jersey and Massachussetts.

The highest per-capita gun death rates were in Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi -- states that the law center said have weak gun control laws.

The center was formed by Bay area lawyers in 1993 following an assault weapon rampage at a San Francisco law office that ended with 10 people dead and six wounded.
I went to the linked article to find enough information to go to the website and review the raw source material. I assume this is the "study" referenced in the article you quoted. While thought provoking, I note the following problematic issues:

a. The study is not peer reviewed. This dramatically increased the necessary background homework to determine the quality of the study.
b. The study has a total of four citations. There is no mention of Kleck (if only to repudiate), Sheley, Wright, Clotfelter, Cole, Molliconi, Gertz, Rossi, Hemenway, Solnick, Azrael or numerous others who have done serious work in these field of study.
c. The "study" offers no explanation for data contrary to their hypothesis. For example Illinois, Michigan and Maryland are in the top 10 "strict gun control" regimes by their analysis but are not in the lowest "gun death" states, while Minnesota, Iowa and Maine are in the lowest "gun death" states but are not in the top "strict gun control" states.
d. The authors appear establish a moderate correlation between "strict gun control" and "lower gun deaths." They then describe it as an very strong correlation and imply that correlation is causation (it is not).
e. The "study" does allow a reader to review the methodology for scoring a state's gun control regime. It does not offer any explanation as to why a state should get a maximum of 2 points out of 220 for having a stronger than federal age restriction for purchase / possession of firearms while awarding 12 points of 220 for waiting periods of 3 days or more. Similar issues can be found in other portions of the scoring methodology This makes it appear the authors constructed the methodology to establish the correlation they desired absent any analysis of previous research into gun related violence.

From my perspective, based on the above problems, I think this "study" can safely be categorized as propaganda pretending to be analysis.
Ryan Heilman '68
-Math is the beginning of wisdom.







Post#3414 at 01-04-2013 11:30 AM by RyanJH [at joined Jan 2011 #posts 291]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
That runs counter to my experience. The more paranoid, the more guns. How the paranoia is achieved seems to be inconsequential. A lot of the paranoia has been stirred-up by the Glenn Becks of this world, so it often has a plitical tinge as well. In any case, the fear comes first.


You live in NoVA, where this mindset is less prevalent. I live in Central VA, and it's common here. If you go to the mountain West, it's even more common. The mindset is not, in and of itself, a problem. It can become one quickly if events trigger a response. Look at the anti-Arab violence following 9/11. Today, the number of heaviliy armed and anxious is a lot higher thatn it was then. Would you like to hazzard a guess at the response to a similar act today? Even worse, how about a general economic collapse?

We don't need a real Red Dawn to start a guerilla war - just the fear of one.
Only slightly relevant to your discussion but...

The Songs of Angry Men

Can Les Misérables help us understand why some revolutions succeed and others barely get off the ground?
Ryan Heilman '68
-Math is the beginning of wisdom.







Post#3415 at 01-04-2013 12:03 PM by B Butler [at joined Nov 2011 #posts 2,329]
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Left Arrow Propaganda

Quote Originally Posted by RyanJH View Post
From my perspective, based on the above problems, I think this "study" can safely be categorized as propaganda pretending to be analysis.
A reasonable assumption. Both sides in the gun debate will distort the numbers to create the desired impression.







Post#3416 at 01-04-2013 12:14 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by RyanJH View Post
Only slightly relevant to your discussion but...

The Songs of Angry Men

Can Les Misérables help us understand why some revolutions succeed and others barely get off the ground?
That's a good question. I doubt that any of the Angry could get a real revolution going in this country. You need a higher level of disgruntlement than we seem to inspire these days. I have to beleive it would be a fringe undertaking, albeit a dangerous fringe. In any case, the leadership is lacking. The leaders of the Tea Party, for example, are not interested in any of this, even though many of the members may be. Add to that, the lack of cannon fodder. Youth aren't atracted to revolution, at least the TP causes. Occupy, on the other hand, might have made a go of it, but then, they didn't seem interested.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#3417 at 01-04-2013 12:21 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by B Butler View Post
A reasonable assumption. Both sides in the gun debate will distort the numbers to create the desired impression.
Right now, there are very few numbers to distort, so everything that mascarades as data or analysis is distorted by definition. This is intentional. Here's a short read on why.
Last edited by Marx & Lennon; 01-04-2013 at 12:47 PM.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#3418 at 01-04-2013 12:27 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by RyanJH View Post
Only slightly relevant to your discussion but...

The Songs of Angry Men

Can Les Misérables help us understand why some revolutions succeed and others barely get off the ground?
Besides that the uprising in Les Miz was a Second Turning event?
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#3419 at 01-04-2013 12:28 PM by RyanJH [at joined Jan 2011 #posts 291]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
That's a good question. I doubt that any of the Angry could get a real revolution going in this country. You need a higher level of disgruntlement than we seem to inspire these days. I have to beleive it would be a fringe undertaking, albeit a dangerous fringe. In any case, the leadership is lacking. The leaders of the Tea Party, for example, are not interested in any of this, even though many of the members may be. Add to that, the lack of cannon fodder. Youth aren't atracted to revolution, at least the TP causes. Occupy, on the other hand, might have made a go of it, but then, they didn't seem interested.
Concur. However, I note with some interest that the political landscape of today looks more like that which existed 9 years prior to 1861 instead of that which existed 9 years prior to 1941. It will be interesting to see if the disgruntlement reaches a tipping point over the next two Presidential election cycles. Though if I had to put money down right now, I am inclined to believe 2021 will look more like the Glorious Revolution than the Civil War (i.e. internal crisis that is relatively mild).
Last edited by RyanJH; 01-04-2013 at 01:20 PM.
Ryan Heilman '68
-Math is the beginning of wisdom.







Post#3420 at 01-04-2013 01:06 PM by RyanJH [at joined Jan 2011 #posts 291]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Right now, there are very numbers to distort, so everything that mascarades as data or analysis is distorted by definition. This is intentional. Here's a short read on why.
I read the article. This quote sums up the linked opinion piece:

As a result, things still stand pretty much as they were in 2004. There is no scientific consensus on the best approach to limiting gun violence, and the N.R.A. is blocking work that might well lead to such a consensus.
And yet, this study from 2004 actually contains data relevant to the discussion.

Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig, Principles for Effective Gun Policy, 73 Fordham Law Review 589 (2004).
Available at: http://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/flr/vol73/iss2/8

The following is not directed at M & L but more of a general observation for people interested in the topic:
Please stop quoting Op Ed pieces and on-line news articles linked to low quality data. If we spent the effort in reading articles similar the above Cook and Ludwig study and/or other articles from peer reviewed sources (and the articles found in the associated bibliographies / footnotes / end notes) then we might be able to have an informed discussion on the topic.

Claiming the N.R.A. (or other bogeyman) has managed to taint / block all research and its not worth the effort is... lazy.

Here is a less lazy (although still remarkably lazy) way to review an article.

1. Find the thesis. It usually deals with a correlation as causation is much harder to prove in multi-variable phenomena.
2. Read the Introduction. It should discuss the limitation of the study somewhere. If it doesn't, begin to suspect propaganda masquerading as analysis.
3. Skip to the end notes / footnotes / bibliography. If there isn't one, stop reading. If there is one, expect a minimum of 2-4 citations per page until the methodology section. Make sure the combination of notes and bibliography mentions the prominent authors of serious works in the field (use the Wikipedia notes section as a start to determine who these are). If there are too few citations and the article does not cite or contain in the bibliography the prominent authors in the field, then strongly suspect propaganda masquerading as analysis.
4. Review the methodology of the analysis and the conclusion. If the article does not explicitly mention the data that did not fit (no data completely does) or offer possible explanations as to faults in the methodology or other factors influencing the results, suspect propaganda masquerading as analysis.
5. If the Conclusion doe not contain caveats related to the above or recommend ares for further study / analysis, suspect propaganda masquerading as analysis.
6. If the Conclusion makes policy recommendations assuming "A" causes "B" when the thesis was clearly "A" correlates with "B", suspect propaganda masquerading as analysis.

Most peer reviewed articles in professional journals pass the above criteria in the process of getting published. You could limit your readings to those and have a relatively high assurance of quality useful information.
Last edited by RyanJH; 01-04-2013 at 01:21 PM.
Ryan Heilman '68
-Math is the beginning of wisdom.







Post#3421 at 01-04-2013 01:19 PM by RyanJH [at joined Jan 2011 #posts 291]
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01-04-2013, 01:19 PM #3421
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Besides that the uprising in Les Miz was a Second Turning event?
It might have been. I am not sure of the French turning timeline. However, I am not convinced you have to be in a 4T to have a "successful" uprising. Also, this article was pondering what criteria might be necessary to have a "successful" uprising and noted that the uprising in Les Mis was a "failed" uprising. Perhaps, along with the author's hypothesis that successful uprisings correlate to stronger means (resources), motives (political grievances) and opportunities (political openings) then the powers opposing them, there is also a correlation to positioning in the 4T.

Or perhaps, 4Ts allow for uprisings to build stronger means, motives and opportunities than afforded in other parts of the cycle? Hmmmm....
Ryan Heilman '68
-Math is the beginning of wisdom.







Post#3422 at 01-04-2013 02:19 PM by Kepi [at Northern, VA joined Nov 2012 #posts 3,664]
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01-04-2013, 02:19 PM #3422
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@ Lennin&Marx, I was referring to a forcefully disarmed populace as an aggitated populace. Paranoids are paranoid and they're going to be that no matter what. I'm pretty sure NoVA has a higher rate of paranoid wannabe gunslingers than most places because of the proximity to DC. Other cities, sure you could be right, but I think I've encountered more birthers than actually claim to exist just here in NoVA.

Real truth about the garden variety anti-government paranoids, though, they really don't wanna shoot anyone. To the point where I think they'd be more or less useless if a conflict of any sort sprung up. The spree shooter types have something different going on in their heads as far as delusions of grandeur.

For these gun hoarding anti-government survivalists it has to be real. For the spree shooter, they don't care if it is or not. They'll be the squid eater from Oldboy or The Joker because that's what they want, and reality be damned. The paranoid anti-government types, while they spend a lot of time at fantasy camp, don't stay there.







Post#3423 at 01-04-2013 02:48 PM by RyanJH [at joined Jan 2011 #posts 291]
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01-04-2013, 02:48 PM #3423
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Another article - not peer reviewed and has some problems, but....

From the liberal think tank, Center for American Progress (Wikipedia link), the article Auditing the Cost of the Virginia Tech Massacre: How Much We Pay When Killers Kill (Anthony Green and Donna Cooper April 2012) presents point I haven't seen raised in this forum yet.

In a previous post I offered a quick way to assess the quality of a data source. Here is a quick example of this process.

0. This article is not from a peer reviewed professional journal - (down check).
1. Thesis = This paper assesses this cost (of the VA Tech Massacare) at $48.2 million for the taxpayers of the United States and the commonwealth of Virginia, and for Virginia Tech, a public university. This report also demonstrates how the background-check system, still rife with loopholes, failed to protect American citizens from an armed and dangerous Seung-Hui Cho, costing innocent lives—many of them young ones - (a reasonable thesis that should have sufficient evidence to support it)
2. Introduction does not discuss limitations on the article. A quick review of the entire article does not yield a discussion on the limitations of the study.
3. End notes / foot notes / bibliography. End notes have 134 citations, many from prominent researchers in the field. However, research sources not supporting author's hypothesis appears to be weakly represented - (size adequate but may be a very one-sided article).
4&5. Methodology & Conclusion. The methodology used to arrive at the $48.2 million cost of the VA Tech Massacre appears sound and is well sourced. However, the authors do not list the range of error in their estimate nor do they mention any faults they uncovered in the methodology - (still its probably a reasonable estimate). The analysis used to demonstrate the background check system failed to protect American citizens from Seung-Hui is not as robust. Probably because it doesn't need to be. However, there isn't much analysis on how much it would cost us (money, freedoms, lost opportunities, etc) to have a system that would protect American citizens from Seung-Hui - (second part of the thesis is much more weakly supported but still has good points to ponder).
6. Policy recommendations. Some of the article's policy recommendations appear to be moderately supported, for example:
• Establishing clear reporting guidelines for when and how mental health records are required to be posted in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System so that states can be held accountable for compliance
• Requiring a full background check in all gun transactions, including private sales at gun shows and those online, so that dangerous people cannot purchase guns legally in these nontraditional venues
• Fully funding state technology efforts to comply with the federal background check system requirements
• Requiring states to comply fully with the protocols of the National Instant Criminal Background Check System or taking away their federal funding if they do not
• Mandating federal compliance with a proposed presidential executive order directing all agencies to submit records to this instant background check system and certifying that they have done so twice yearly to the U.S. attorney general
Two other policy recommendations are not or are very weakly supported by the analysis in the article, these are:
• Outlawing high-capacity bullet magazines
• Requiring campuses to establish a threat assessment process

Overall analysis - a one-sided article that presents a detailed, but incomplete, analysis of the VA Tech Massacre costs and the background check system. It presents reasonably supported recommendations to strengthen the background check system. Worth the read.

Despite the problems with this article, it is still much better than most of the Op Ed pieces presented as source material by many of the participants in this debate.
Last edited by RyanJH; 01-04-2013 at 02:51 PM.
Ryan Heilman '68
-Math is the beginning of wisdom.







Post#3424 at 01-04-2013 04:00 PM by Eric the Green [at San Jose CA joined Jul 2001 #posts 22,504]
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01-04-2013, 04:00 PM #3424
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Quote Originally Posted by RyanJH View Post
It might have been. I am not sure of the French turning timeline. However, I am not convinced you have to be in a 4T to have a "successful" uprising. Also, this article was pondering what criteria might be necessary to have a "successful" uprising and noted that the uprising in Les Mis was a "failed" uprising. Perhaps, along with the author's hypothesis that successful uprisings correlate to stronger means (resources), motives (political grievances) and opportunities (political openings) then the powers opposing them, there is also a correlation to positioning in the 4T.

Or perhaps, 4Ts allow for uprisings to build stronger means, motives and opportunities than afforded in other parts of the cycle? Hmmmm....
Stronger revolutions in 4Ts? The greatest was the French Revolution, and the American that preceded it. I don't think there were any "revolutions" per se in the 1850s and 60s. The "revolution" in Nazi Germany was reactionary and plunged Europe into its worst darkness ever. I don't see many successful revolutions in 4Ts. But great events do happen that remake society, like the New Deal and the birth of the military-industrial complex, the Munich Syndrome and the UN in World War Two, and the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863 and the reconstruction amendments in 1865-67 after the Civil War.

Astrology is a better indication of "successful" uprisings, when they happen, and how progressive or radical they are. Aspects-- angles like a conjunction alignment, an opposition (planets on opposite sides of the Earth) and squares (90 degrees apart)-- with revolutionary Uranus indicate revolutions.

We certainly never had a more successful uprising than the revolutions in Eastern Europe in 1989 and the Soviet Union in 1991, and the preceding ones in the US orbit in 1986-88. That was a conjunction of Uranus-Neptune, in the midst of what was probably a 3T worldwide; certainly if anything the saeculum is a bit behind in Europe from what it is in America. Such conjunctions and oppositions tend to allow revolutions of a more conservative type, in this case reverting back to a democratic revolution and overthrowing the communist one, or bringing already-existing revolutionary movements into power. And the revolutions of circa 1989 did make use of the people power methods that were developed in America in the 1960s during the Uranus-Pluto conjunction. In hindsight it is easy to make correlations. But I had predicted a revolution for 1989 back in 1971, when I first started keeping track of this stuff. It was an obvious observation, given the extraordinary aspects for that Fall.

The previous Uranus-Neptune conjunction of 1821 was similarly successful, bringing down the colonial regimes in Latin America after Southern European kingdoms temporarily fell to revolutions; although the Greek Revolt was spectacular and permanent. The opposition in circa 1910 also brought some successful uprisings, such as in China and Mexico, and so did the square in the mid to late 1950s; Cuba comes to mind for example.

Uranus-Pluto is the cycle of revolution. It can indicate successful uprisings, at least temporary ones. It also establishes revolutionary movements and sets the agenda for them, and for politics generally. You can count on these aspects, like you can count on your watch to tell the time. A cycle between two planets are like phases of the Moon, and the greatest revolution events happen when the new, full and quarter phases happen between Uranus and Pluto. Revolutions even happen when the planets are in semi and sesqui-squares. And NEVER underestimate Pluto! The astronomers can; astrologers cannot!

We astrologers all knew that great and successful uprisings and revolutionary movements were going to happen when Uranus and Pluto reached their first quarter square around 2010. Then Jupiter joined Uranus in an exact conjunction on the day of a solar eclipse, with the conjunction two degrees from the Sun in the chart of Tunisia, on Jan.4, 2011. Look what Tunisia started, as we say here! You may also know that the French Revolution reached its height just when Uranus was opposing Pluto most exactly, in 1792-93. You can follow the complete story of the cycle here.

The Le Miz uprising in 1832 occurred during a 2T. An opposition of Saturn and Uranus had happened in 1830-31, and a 60 degree angle had been in effect then between Uranus and Pluto. These influences were not enough to indicate success.
Last edited by Eric the Green; 01-04-2013 at 04:29 PM.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive,

Eric A. Meece







Post#3425 at 01-04-2013 04:12 PM by Bad Dog [at joined Dec 2012 #posts 2,156]
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01-04-2013, 04:12 PM #3425
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Quote Originally Posted by RyanJH View Post
From the liberal think tank, Center for American Progress (Wikipedia link), the article Auditing the Cost of the Virginia Tech Massacre: How Much We Pay When Killers Kill (Anthony Green and Donna Cooper April 2012) presents point I haven't seen raised in this forum yet.

In a previous post I offered a quick way to assess the quality of a data source. Here is a quick example of this process.

0. This article is not from a peer reviewed professional journal - (down check).
1. Thesis = This paper assesses this cost (of the VA Tech Massacare) at $48.2 million for the taxpayers of the United States and the commonwealth of Virginia, and for Virginia Tech, a public university. This report also demonstrates how the background-check system, still rife with loopholes, failed to protect American citizens from an armed and dangerous Seung-Hui Cho, costing innocent lives—many of them young ones - (a reasonable thesis that should have sufficient evidence to support it)
2. Introduction does not discuss limitations on the article. A quick review of the entire article does not yield a discussion on the limitations of the study.
3. End notes / foot notes / bibliography. End notes have 134 citations, many from prominent researchers in the field. However, research sources not supporting author's hypothesis appears to be weakly represented - (size adequate but may be a very one-sided article).
4&5. Methodology & Conclusion. The methodology used to arrive at the $48.2 million cost of the VA Tech Massacre appears sound and is well sourced. However, the authors do not list the range of error in their estimate nor do they mention any faults they uncovered in the methodology - (still its probably a reasonable estimate). The analysis used to demonstrate the background check system failed to protect American citizens from Seung-Hui is not as robust. Probably because it doesn't need to be. However, there isn't much analysis on how much it would cost us (money, freedoms, lost opportunities, etc) to have a system that would protect American citizens from Seung-Hui - (second part of the thesis is much more weakly supported but still has good points to ponder).
6. Policy recommendations. Some of the article's policy recommendations appear to be moderately supported, for example:
• Establishing clear reporting guidelines for when and how mental health records are required to be posted in the National Instant Criminal Background Check System so that states can be held accountable for compliance
• Requiring a full background check in all gun transactions, including private sales at gun shows and those online, so that dangerous people cannot purchase guns legally in these nontraditional venues
• Fully funding state technology efforts to comply with the federal background check system requirements
• Requiring states to comply fully with the protocols of the National Instant Criminal Background Check System or taking away their federal funding if they do not
• Mandating federal compliance with a proposed presidential executive order directing all agencies to submit records to this instant background check system and certifying that they have done so twice yearly to the U.S. attorney general
Two other policy recommendations are not or are very weakly supported by the analysis in the article, these are:
• Outlawing high-capacity bullet magazines
• Requiring campuses to establish a threat assessment process

Overall analysis - a one-sided article that presents a detailed, but incomplete, analysis of the VA Tech Massacre costs and the background check system. It presents reasonably supported recommendations to strengthen the background check system. Worth the read.

Despite the problems with this article, it is still much better than most of the Op Ed pieces presented as source material by many of the participants in this debate.

Thank you, Ryan.
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