....................

Mierda!!!

Swine flu... hey, I remember that! 1976, right??? You mean it's back?

Yeah. To top it off, I was tired and achy and had a mildly queasy stomach yesterday afternoon and evening, absolutely good for nothing, and then the news came on with the story of swine flu, so lets add hypochondria to the mess. Every passing 24-hour virus is going to leave panic in its wake if this keeps up.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Swine flu has always been around. The mutated form of bird/swine/human flu has not.

Yep. Every once in a while a bug jumps species. Humans immune defenses just aren't ready for it. I don't know that this particular jump is going to be particularly strong, but we are statistically overdue for a bad one. The 1918 'Spanish Flu' might be an example of what can happen.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Yep. Every once in a while a bug jumps species. Humans immune defenses just aren't ready for it. I don't know that this particular jump is going to be particularly strong, but we are statistically overdue for a bad one. The 1918 'Spanish Flu' might be an example of what can happen.

Actually, with new flu strains it's ...

The coming cytokine storm...

So, a strong immune system could be a liability but antioxidants seem to increase survivability. Cigarettes & coffee, anyone?

The NY Times reports Students Fall Ill in New York, and Swine Flu Is Likely Cause. For discussion purposes...

Health officials reached their preliminary conclusion after conducting viral tests on nose or throat swabs from the eight students, which allowed them to eliminate other strains of flu. Officials were also suspicious since some St. Francis students recently had been to Mexico, where the outbreak is believed to have started.

You know, I never really got that nervous about bird flu, because it never really took off, and people weren't spreading it to each other.

This one makes me nervous though, for three reasons.

a) It does spread human-to-human
b) It is apparently the type that afflicts younger adults more strongly
c) I'm in Phoenix. Phoenix has plenty of ties to Mexico. And I still have a few more days of class left at ASU. There are 60,000 of us on that campus. I have some big classes. And I take the bus to school.

Ugh...

I think the media are hyping this up too much. This is dangerous at the beginning of a Fourth Turning. If this hysteria continues, we will have other things happen instead, such as loss of some of our freedoms, for instance. The closing of universities in Mexico is a seriously misguided step. The result could be a restive bunch of youths who could cause trouble for the government or even start a revolution and cause Mexico to be taken over by a dictator. This could lead to a war between the US and Mexico (I read about one such scenario in a book set in the year 2003).

Or it could lead to a vaccine, which would be given out to as many people as possible. This could lead to an epidemic, not of flu, but of Guillain-Barre syndrome, of which 500 cases were recorded in 1976.

Allan Lichtman says the 5th worst mistake ever made by a US President was the internment of the Japanese ( http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2009...us-presidents/ ). Lichtman warns Obama about this, saying "Beware of Hysteria".

Originally Posted by The Rani

I do hope that someone in our government, or in some other government, eventually wakes up, but I'm not counting on it.

Yet another reason to ban factory farming.

You worked on the California bill on that, right? I voted for it, but didn't study it closely to see what it would do. (I know, dumb move.) Would its provisions mandate safer farming in regard to epidemics like this?

Actually there's a long history of diseases jumping from domesticated animals to humans. We got smallpox from cattle, for example. It can happen without factory farming, that just increases the probabilities.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Yep. Every once in a while a bug jumps species. Humans immune defenses just aren't ready for it. I don't know that this particular jump is going to be particularly strong, but we are statistically overdue for a bad one. The 1918 'Spanish Flu' might be an example of what can happen.

According to the CDC, the new strain is type H1N1, just like the '18 bug.

Originally Posted by The Rani

H1N1 yes, just like the '18 bug absolutely not:

CDC Study

I see. So, what you are saying is that this virus is potentially far worse than the 1918 influenza? That makes sense... we're all descended from people who survived that outbreak, so we might have some resistance to a similar virus, should one surface again. But not this one. Geez.

U.S. Declares Public Health Emergency Over Swine Flu. For discussion purposes.

Originally Posted by NY Times

Besides the eight New York cases, officials said they had confirmed seven in California, two in Kansas, two in Texas and one in Ohio. The virus looked identical to the one in Mexico believed to have killed 103 people — including 22 people whose deaths were confirmed to be from swine flu — and sickened about 1,600. As of Sunday night, there were no swine flu deaths in the United States, and one hospitalization.

Other governments tried to contain the infection amid reports of potential new cases including in New Zealand and Spain.

Dr. Fukuda of the W.H.O. said his agency would decide Tuesday whether to raise the pandemic alert level to 4. Such a move would prompt more travel bans, and the agency has been reluctant historically to take actions that hurt member nations.

Originally Posted by The Rani

If Southeast Asian bird flu ever hooks up with North American swine/bird/human flu, we might all be in a lot of trouble. If we aren't already. On the other hand, they didn't have antibiotics or antivirals in 1918, so the odds are in our favor if we live in a place where we can get those.

Modern medicine might well help, but modern factory farming loads the animals with antibiotics as a precautionary measure. This could breed bugs that are resistant. Not clear if this will be the case here.

One headline on AOL News speaks of stock futures tumbling over fear of swine flu, to which one person on that forum said something to the effect that, "I thought the swine had already destroyed Wall Street."

Originally Posted by The Rani

I do hope that someone in our government, or in some other government, eventually wakes up, but I'm not counting on it.

This is like so not libertarian. I'm in shock.

Aren't we suppose to just let everyone fend for themselves, let the chips (i.e., bodies) fall where they may, weed out the weak from the strong, and then just move on?

I'm puzzled, my queen.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Prop 2 is a step in the right direction, but really just a drop in the bucket. It would be nice if they had some of those wild and crazy congressional hearings on the issue. Maybe the pork execs would even show up in private planes ... but wearing masks of course. Then they could bitch and moan about how they have to dispose of all their sick little piggies, and demand a bailout. Since everyone needs bacon in the morning, they are Too Big To Fail.



If Southeast Asian bird flu ever hooks up with North American swine/bird/human flu, we might all be in a lot of trouble. If we aren't already. On the other hand, they didn't have antibiotics or antivirals in 1918, so the odds are in our favor if we live in a place where we can get those.

If the real killer turns out to be not the virus itself per se, but rather the victims' own immune reactions run amok (i.e. the cytokine storm)... will antivirals matter? It would make an interesting study.

I don't know, I've got one of those over-active immune systems and antivirals always seem to make me feel worse and recover more slowly.

Most antivirals I've been prescribed are appear toxic in and of themselves (with warnings like: "do not exceed dosage due to potential mercury toxicity," "the exact mechanism by which this medicine interacts with the body is unknown.")

It seems there are considerable grounds for hope. On the one hand the virus has now spread both to Israel and New Zealand (through people who had been in Mexico.) On the other hand, there don't seem to have been any fatal or even really severe cases anywhere but Mexico, suggesting that a "strain within a strain" arose there but may not be propagating.

Although the bubonic plague was still an issue even after the end of the Middle Ages, I'm not aware of anything similar to the 1918 epidemic at any time since 1500, and if it had happened in Europe, I would be. So there's a good chance that that event won't be repeated for a long, long time.

New Mexico writer Steve Stirling had a bad but brief attack of some sort of flu yesterday. Because he's just come back from Nantucket, he put it down originally to traveler's crud, but when his fever spiked, he listened to those on his fan list and went to the doctor - who apparently put him in the hospital overnight. The diagnosis was flu, but of a type so far unknown according to his doctor. So there may (or may not) be a case of the swine flu in New Mexico. However, it was very short-lived.

I myself had an attack of some sort of 24-hour bug last Friday, so in addition to swine flu there may be something else going around.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Looks like at least someone is finally paying attention:

Pig manure dumps could be pandemic ground zero

According to the BBC this morning, the factory pork farms are American owned enterprises.

Originally Posted by The Rani

What I find absolutely fascinating is this part:

Mexico's National Organisation of Pig Production and Producers said in a statement: "We deny completely that the influenza virus affecting Mexico originated in pigs because it has been scientifically demonstrated that this is not possible."

Is this a full fledged consensus of the scientific community, or should we, well, you know, follow the money trail? ™

Originally Posted by The Rani

Probably because you put your own neoliberal version in there of what "wakes up" means.

Then what should the 'government waking up' mean, my queen?

Certainly regulating pig manure dumps would be offensive to a libertarian. One would think that pig manure falling under the notion of "your rights end at my nose" would be a, ahum, slippery slope for a libertarian to begin treading.

Is it really good at this moment to put a square mark of culpability for who is ultimately responsible for letting it happen?

Also, makes me wonder of the pig factory cesspits that dot the Carolinas. I've read an article on how much a bed of contagion those are, so it may not be surprising to see something dangerous arise from those.