Originally Posted by playwrite

Has any one tracked down the story of a highly virulent form of either H1N1 or something worst (!) rapidly spreading in the Ukraine?

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/ne...rrives-Roundup

I've seen it reported that this is only a case of slow response in a poorer former Soviet state but other indicators that there might be something more to it -

http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2009/1...-outbreak.html

any insight?

Also, here is an interesting interactive map showing how H1N1 is becoming pandemic -

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8083179.stm

The only insight that I have on this is that I still think that the swine flu threat is mostly bogus. So far, maybe a few thousand (worldwide) have died from swine flu. But "normal" flu kills FAR more people each year in the US alone (about 50,000). Regular flu is still more deadly than swine flu. Reminds me of the SARS and West Nile panic.

Originally Posted by playwrite

I assume daughter okay?

She is completely fine. She started feeling bad on Sunday, October 4th. She felt awful on Monday and Tuesday, started feeling better on Wednesday, and had no temperature on Thursday (October 7th). On the advice of my daughter's pediatric practice, she was back in school on the 8th. The only real consequence of her absense was that she performed poorly on a couple of tests and quizzes from around that time and is working harder to make them up.

Her friends are also all fine. It really was no worse than a typical flu and quicker than some viruses that she's had that just lingered on and on and on.

Thanks for asking.

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

The only insight that I have on this is that I still think that the swine flu threat is mostly bogus. So far, maybe a few thousand (worldwide) have died from swine flu. But "normal" flu kills FAR more people each year in the US alone (about 50,000). Regular flu is still more deadly than swine flu. Reminds me of the SARS and West Nile panic.

That seems to be a valid perspective. After the Ukraine post, I punched a few numbers and came up with 0.5% of the Ukraine population being infected. In hitting Google to see what percentage of the population would be considered a significant epidemic, articles came up mentioning 3% of the people of Washington DC have AIDS.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

That seems to be a valid perspective. After the Ukraine post, I punched a few numbers and came up with 0.5% of the Ukraine population being infected. In hitting Google to see what percentage of the population would be considered a significant epidemic, articles came up mentioning 3% of the people of Washington DC have AIDS.

This is obviously not 1918.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

That seems to be a valid perspective. After the Ukraine post, I punched a few numbers and came up with 0.5% of the Ukraine population being infected. In hitting Google to see what percentage of the population would be considered a significant epidemic, articles came up mentioning 3% of the people of Washington DC have AIDS.

I look at that as well, but some articles are suggesting the offical count is way behind in Ukraine and that tallying has been difficult because folks are fleeing the area or becomng infected themselves. The WHO sending in a special investigative team is what throws me. All and all it could be just hysteria and I regret if I've added to that.

One of the problems is that few people actually get a blood test to determine the nature of the flu that they've gotten. I guess I wonder about the validity of most of the figures.

In any case, I've taken the H1N1 vaccine as much as a service to my fellow citizens as any other reason. If I don't get it, I can't transmit it.

This might be old news to some of you, but both Time Warner and Goldman Sachs, as well as some other large corporations, received a supply of H1N1 vaccines before several hospitals did. I heard this on a television news program, but I think it was Business Week which broke the story.

Goldman Sachs replied that the CDC is responsible for deciding which organizations received the vaccines and when.

I don't totally know how to reply. Neither of the medical practices our family uses has a supply of vaccines yet, and neither knows when they'll be getting any.

Originally Posted by BookishXer

Neither of the medical practices our family uses has a supply of vaccines yet, and neither knows when they'll be getting any.

Don't get too worked up about it. Swine flu amounts to nothing whatsoever besides a scare campaign.

At least, that's the way the evidence is shaping up...

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Don't get too worked up about it. Swine flu amounts to nothing whatsoever besides a scare campaign.

I appreciate the reassurance. I'm not so much worked up about the flu itself, although I don't like the idea that any of my children could be hospitalized with an illness.

I'm more...irritated?...that, despite repeated calls for caution and vaccination, I have three members of my own family that the CDC has defined as high-risk, yet they are unable to access the vaccination that employees of Goldman Sachs can now receive by mere virtue of being Goldman Sachs employees.

I should note that Goldman Sachs has said that they are reserving those shots for high-risk employees. Nevertheless, why Goldman Sachs, Time Warner and JP Morgan when there are doctors' offices and hospitals that are still waiting?

Originally Posted by BookishXer

I should note that Goldman Sachs has said that they are reserving those shots for high-risk employees. Nevertheless, why Goldman Sachs, Time Warner and JP Morgan when there are doctors' offices and hospitals that are still waiting?

Are you sure you are reading that right? The shots might be in reserved for employees who take high risks. Thus, the proper reading is that high ranking members of the company and employees doing leveraged buys of high risk derivatives should be shot.

Originally Posted by BookishXer

I'm not so much worked up about the flu itself, although I don't like the idea that any of my children could be hospitalized with an illness.

Yeah. That sucks. Two of our three have spent time in ICUs.

At the same time, the NZ study gives infection rates of less than 29 per million (without vaccination). I suppose you might get struck by lightning, but still...

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Are you sure you are reading that right? The shots might be in reserved for employees who take high risks. Thus, the proper reading is that high ranking members of the company and employees doing leveraged buys of high risk derivatives should be shot.

You might be right...funny how a person's eyes can jump around a text and miss the real story.

Justin '77...sorry to hear your that your kids have spent time in the ICU. I think it was Erma Bombeck (my mom used to read her) who wrote that being a parent is like agreeing to wear your heart outside of your body for the rest of your life.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Not getting the vaccine for this one is no big deal, but the problem as I see it is that when The Big One hits, the same protocol will likely be in place.

I'm inclined to agree that's a danger. Best case would be if enough of a stink comes out of this epidemic that the problems are corrected before a truly bad one comes along. If that happens, we've been lucky in that fate has presented us with a dry-run rehearsal.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Not getting the vaccine for this one is no big deal, but the problem as I see it is that when The Big One hits, the same protocol will likely be in place.

Well then... I suppose we just need to make sure we get up against the wall whoever needs it before The Big One comes around.

Originally Posted by The Rani

Not getting the vaccine for this one is no big deal, but the problem as I see it is that when The Big One hits, the same protocol will likely be in place.

That is worrisome. After all you cannot know in advance when a big one is coming. The current one had enough of the signals to warrant making a credible effort to produce vaccine. The amount of vaccine available so far is less than what is typically produced for seasonal flu vaccinations.

Oh well. Putt's Law in action.

Originally Posted by Brian Rush

I'm inclined to agree that's a danger. Best case would be if enough of a stink comes out of this epidemic that the problems are corrected before a truly bad one comes along. If that happens, we've been lucky in that fate has presented us with a dry-run rehearsal.

Far more likely is that when the initial panic subsides, this particular H1N1 will be a dud, and people will roll their eyes... mostly at themselves.

Then, a few more years into the Crisis when the real Captain Trips finally does hit, nobody will take that bug seriously either.

Boooooooommmmm.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Far more likely is that when the initial panic subsides, this particular H1N1 will be a dud, and people will roll their eyes... mostly at themselves.

Then, a few more years into the Crisis when the real Captain Trips finally does hit, nobody will take that bug seriously either.

Boooooooommmmm.

I don't really know if there's any chance of heading off a 1918-style epidemic with a vaccine. The good news is that is the only widely fatal flu epidemic I'm aware of in modern western history. My impression is that this one is killing more healthy young people than normal even if the absolute numbers are small. I very rarely get the flu, and I think my wife had this one last spring--she certainly had some flu then. I haven't had a vaccine in many years and don't plan to get this one. In fact I have never seen statistics on how effective these vaccines are. Since they have to be made in advance, they are guesses.

Bird flu looked pretty dangerous but I guess it never developed into a strain easily transmissible between human beings.

Heaven help us if an easily transmissible fatal infection does develop. I highly recommend the book on the AIDS epidemic by the late Randy Shilts (a great historian), And the Band Played On. It shows how hard it was for the modern medical community to accept that something completely new was happening. The other night at a party I heard a health care worker, a nurse, arguing that the 1918 flu killed so many people because of widespread TB and poor air quality. Based on everything I've read, that's silly. It was simply an extraordinarily lethal virus especially among young adults.

Cnet reports that the Nation prepares for deadly bat virus

There have only been very few cases in Australia and southern Asia. Apparently not very contagious in its current form, but deadly if you do catch it. Not a problem yet, but it shows there are a few more things out there.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Cnet reports that the Nation prepares for deadly bat virus

There have only been very few cases in Australia and southern Asia. Apparently not very contagious in its current form, but deadly if you do catch it. Not a problem yet, but it shows there are a few more things out there.

Oh, nice. Bird flu, swine flu... now, here comes BAT flu???

The fun is just never going to end...

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

I don't really know if there's any chance of heading off a 1918-style epidemic with a vaccine. The good news is that is the only widely fatal flu epidemic I'm aware of in modern western history. My impression is that this one is killing more healthy young people than normal even if the absolute numbers are small. I very rarely get the flu, and I think my wife had this one last spring--she certainly had some flu then. I haven't had a vaccine in many years and don't plan to get this one. In fact I have never seen statistics on how effective these vaccines are. Since they have to be made in advance, they are guesses.

Bird flu looked pretty dangerous but I guess it never developed into a strain easily transmissible between human beings.

Heaven help us if an easily transmissible fatal infection does develop. I highly recommend the book on the AIDS epidemic by the late Randy Shilts (a great historian), And the Band Played On. It shows how hard it was for the modern medical community to accept that something completely new was happening. The other night at a party I heard a health care worker, a nurse, arguing that the 1918 flu killed so many people because of widespread TB and poor air quality. Based on everything I've read, that's silly. It was simply an extraordinarily lethal virus especially among young adults.

Just one more reason to hope and pray that the next Awakening doesn't expand on the excesses of the past one. Maybe next time around, AIDS mixes it up with the flu and becomes AIRBORNE.

Wouldn't THAT be a hoot?

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Oh, nice. Bird flu, swine flu... now, here comes BAT flu???

The fun is just never going to end...

I think I'll worry about Bat Flu more. After all they're fellow mammals who like to "suck yar blood" muhahahaha! I can just imagine the symptoms of Bat flu: pale skin, no emotions, and the ability to sparkle in the sunlight. So the first place to avoid when trying to escape sparkly Bat flu, is to get as far as you can from Utah and rest of the Rocky Mountain states.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

I think I'll worry about Bat Flu more. After all they're fellow mammals who like to "suck yar blood" muhahahaha! I can just imagine the symptoms of Bat flu: pale skin, no emotions, and the ability to sparkle in the sunlight. So the first place to avoid when trying to escape sparkly Bat flu, is to get as far as you can from Utah and rest of the Rocky Mountain states.

~Chas'88

I remember a 1979 movie with sort of a cult following called "Nightwing". Been kinda spooked by even the idea of bats ever since.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

I don't really know if there's any chance of heading off a 1918-style epidemic with a vaccine. The good news is that is the only widely fatal flu epidemic I'm aware of in modern western history. My impression is that this one is killing more healthy young people than normal even if the absolute numbers are small. I very rarely get the flu, and I think my wife had this one last spring--she certainly had some flu then. I haven't had a vaccine in many years and don't plan to get this one. In fact I have never seen statistics on how effective these vaccines are. Since they have to be made in advance, they are guesses.

Bird flu looked pretty dangerous but I guess it never developed into a strain easily transmissible between human beings.

Heaven help us if an easily transmissible fatal infection does develop. I highly recommend the book on the AIDS epidemic by the late Randy Shilts (a great historian), And the Band Played On. It shows how hard it was for the modern medical community to accept that something completely new was happening. The other night at a party I heard a health care worker, a nurse, arguing that the 1918 flu killed so many people because of widespread TB and poor air quality. Based on everything I've read, that's silly. It was simply an extraordinarily lethal virus especially among young adults.

Of which a great-grandfather of mine died, leaving his wife a widow to raise my grandmother and her brother all by herself... I can't imagine what that must have been like for them.

I'm quite glad Swine Flu has been so tame a virus.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Of which a great-grandfather of mine died, leaving his wife a widow to raise my grandmother and her brother all by herself... I can't imagine what that must have been like for them.

I'm quite glad Swine Flu has been so tame a virus.

~Chas'88

My maternal grandfather had something like nine brothers and sisters... and lost half of 'em. Apparently the Spanish Flu wasn't very kind to Deal, New Jersey.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

I remember a 1979 movie with sort of a cult following called "Nightwing". Been kinda spooked by even the idea of bats ever since.

But all bats really eat is fruit and insects. The only blood suckers are in Mexico and South America--and they only drink tiny portions in comparison to the fruit and insects they eat. And the blood they get mostly comes from livestock or recently dead animals.

So don't worry about bats. Be afraid of sparkly vampires, for they'll blind you with their smile--if they ever did smile of course since they live without having emotions and all...

~Chas'88