The election of our first Joneser/early Xer/cusper/too-young-to-serve-in-Vietnam President I'm sure brought this question up around these parts, but in this case I'm using statistics about Congress, governors, and the Supreme Court.

Since I had lost all these stats in one of several possible computer crashes, I had to recover this information to piece this thread together...the underlying story I (tentatively) think these might be telling us is that Boomers reached their maximum of political power in the 2006 elections and will slowly hemorrhage House seats and (later) governorships as they become relegated to influence in the chambers of "elder wisdom", the Senate and Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Xers may finally be advancing in American politics, putting them on track to claim a majority in the House sometime around...2020, maybe? (Nomads are, of course, political late bloomers, which is one reason why I think Obama is best classified as a cuspy Boomer à la FDR's late-Missionary status.)

House

As the youngest, most diverse organization of national politicians, it is no surprise that generations make their mark in the House first. The biggest generational story told by House elections in 2008 is twofold: first, the Boomers lost seats for the first time ever (indicating they may have peaked in 2006-2007), and second, Xers finally comprise the second largest generational bloc in the House, five seats ahead of the Silent. In other respects (see: the Senate), Xers have a long way to go before they catch up with their Artist elders. Nonetheless, a 17-seat bump for Generation X shouldn't go without notice to those TFTers who are watching generational theory play itself out in U.S. politics. And Boomers lost 13 seats to just 3 for the Silent. Are the Silent only going to slowly shed influence in their late elderhood while the biggest movement is from Boomers to Xers on Capitol Hill's south side?

Trivia item: the youngest Member is freshman Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Illinois, born in 1981 and a possible candidate for first Millennial in Congress. (Though his attitudes read as Xer to me, but who can really define that?)

House membership stats
After 2004 election: 3 GIs, 105 Silent, 275 Boomers, 52 Xers
Shares: 1% Civic, 24% Adaptive, 63% Idealist, 12% Reactive

Before 2006 election: 3 GIs, 104 Silent, 276 Boomers, 52 Xers
Shares: 1% Civic, 24% Adaptive, 63% Idealist, 12% Reactive

After 2006 election: 2 GIs, 86 Silent, 283 Boomers, 64 Xers
Shares: 0.5% Civic, 20% Adaptive, 65% Idealist, 15% Reactive

Before 2008 election: 2 GIs, 81 Silent, 286 Boomers, 66 Xers
Shares: 0.5% Civic, 19% Adaptive, 66% Idealist, 15% Reactive

After 2008 election (still in place): 1 GI, 78 Silent, 273 Boomers, 83 Xers
Shares: 0.2% Civic, 18% Adaptive, 63% Idealist, 19% Reactive

Senate

The 2008 election saw the loss of one GI (anyone who paid attention will remember the eccentric Ted Stevens, who lost in a nailbiter Alaska election to Boomer/X cusper Mark Begich), and a net loss of 3 Silent, with a net gain of 4 for Team Boomer. Post-election appointments complicate analysis, though, as Gov. Blagojevich replaced Obama with a Silent (Roland Burris), and two Xers (Michael Bennet and Kirsten Gillibrand) replaced Cabinet-bound Boomers (Ken Salazar and Hillary Clinton). This means the Silent are actually up one since the 2008 election while the Boomers are down two...but in any case, Silent influence has waned considerably in the deliberative upper chamber since 2004, when the Artist generation commanded 40 of the Senate's 100 seats. Since the Senate has always had and will always have a higher median age than the House, it's likely that Boomer dominance has years to go before it peaks. And Gen Xers are currently stuck at 6 seats to the Silent's 34, an astounding disparity since the very youngest Gen Xers are almost eligible to run for the Senate while the oldest Silent are 84. Actually, there are barely more Xer Senators than GIs.

Nevertheless, the 2010 election may see more gains for Boomers (and possibly Xers) as Silent Senators Ted Kaufman, Kit Bond, and George Voinovich are retiring (for the record, so are Boomers Judd Gregg, Mel Martinez, and Sam Brownback).

Senate membership stats
After 2004 election: 5 GIs, 40 Silent, 50 Boomers, 5 Xers

After 2006 election: 5 GIs, 38 Silent, 52 Boomers, 5 Xers

Before 2008 election: 5 GIs, 36 Silent, 54 Boomers, 5 Xers

After 2008 election: 4 GIs, 33 Silent, 58 Boomers, 5 Xers

Now: 4 GIs, 34 Silent, 56 Boomers, 6 Xers

Governors

Boomer gubernatorial strength shows no signs of waning, with an eye-popping 41 of 50 governors' mansions under Prophet control. (Now *that's* what I call bipartisan...) There are just 5 Xers and 4 Silent. With a veritable slew of governors term-limited in 2010, we'll soon see how close to peaking Boomers are in this respect. (One especially interesting election, from a generational perspective: California's gubernatorial race currently has three frontrunners -- a Boomer Republican, Meg Whitman, a Silent Democrat and former governor himself, Jerry Brown, and an Xer Democrat, Gavin Newsom. Many are waiting to see whether a Boomer, like Antonio Villaraigosa, will enter on the Democratic side.)

Note: the only generational change in governors' mansions in 2008 was Missouri, where unpopular Xer Republican Matt Blunt lost to Boomer Democrat Jay Nixon. This is also area of government without GIs, and from what I can tell, has been GI-free for some time.

Governor election stats
After 2004 election: 6 Silent, 42 Boomers, 2 Xers

After 2006 election: 5 Silent, 40 Boomers, 5 Xers

Before 2008 election: 4 Silent, 40 Boomers, 6 Xers

After 2008 election (still in place): 4 Silent, 41 Boomers, 5 Xers

Supreme Court

Finally, the last refuge for GI and Silent governance (though not for much longer). Here the Silent still hold 5 of 9 seats, with 1 GI (who else? John Paul Stevens, age 89) and 3 Boomers (three of the Court's four solid conservatives). Until Sandra Day O'Connor was replaced by Samuel Alito in January 2006, there were 6 Silent on the Court, and before William Rehnquist's death, 2 GIs. But after an unchanged roster of 11 years (1994-2005), things are changing in the stodgy High Court. If Sonia Sotomayor is confirmed, she will bring Boomers to a 4-4 tie with the Silent (she replaces 1939er David Souter, the youngest Silent on the Court). And most expect that either of the two eldest liberals, 1933 Silent Ruth Bader Ginsburg or 1920 GI Stevens, will exit during Obama's Presidency. It's even possible that both will, though Stevens has long said he will stay on the Court until his death.

What will it mean when both Souter and Ginsburg/Stevens are replaced by Boomers? Core Boomers will rule every facet of national politics except, perhaps, the White House. Though this is far less meaningful in many respects than which party is in power, it is important to the development of the 4T and the unfolding of the generational cycle. And if you think about it, we may only be five to ten years away from an Xer Supreme Court Justice.

Supreme Court stats
1994-2005: 2 GIs, 6 Silent, 1 Boomer
2005-2006: 1 GI, 6 Silent, 2 Boomers
2006-present: 1 GI, 5 Silent, 3 Boomers
2009 projection (assumes Sotomayor is confirmed): 1 GI, 4 Silent, 4 Boomers

Boomers are finally taking over the Senate and the Court, still dominating executive leadership in the states, and easing out of the House. We last saw generational power peak in the mid 1980s, when the Silent started to lose House seats and solidify dominance in the Senate. But the President is a cusper. What does all of this mean?

It is possible that the Boomers have peaked. But I would've expected a peak in 2012 rather than 2007 or 2008.

Thanks for doing this, because I was thinking about it but not looking forward to the time it would take.

I assume you're using S&H's 1961 start date for X. If you move it to '65 or '66 as I would, the picture is different. Still, I think we are certainly at or near the Boomer peak of power. Without having any proof to back it up, 2006-2008 feels to me like the Boomers' last big gasp.

We have a good 15 to 20 more years baby. Get used to it or get out of the way. People live a lot longer now.

Originally Posted by haymarket martyr

We have a good 15 to 20 more years baby. Get used to it or get out of the way. People live a lot longer now.

Yeah, but living longer did nothing to prolong the cultural influence of the GIs, although it did help to prolong their political influence. For the Boomers, it will be opposite. Their political influence will drop rapidly sometime in the early 2010s. Their cultural influence, however, will remain strong well after the Crisis is over.

Originally Posted by JustPassingThrough

Thanks for doing this, because I was thinking about it but not looking forward to the time it would take.

I assume you're using S&H's 1961 start date for X. If you move it to '65 or '66 as I would, the picture is different. Still, I think we are certainly at or near the Boomer peak of power. Without having any proof to back it up, 2006-2008 feels to me like the Boomers' last big gasp.

Yeah, I used 1961. It's no weirder than calling 1943 "Boomer", IMO. But ideally, I'd have the endurance to go through congressional membership and differentiate core from cusp for each generation.

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

Yeah, but living longer did nothing to prolong the cultural influence of the GIs, although it did help to prolong their political influence. For the Boomers, it will be opposite. Their political influence will drop rapidly sometime in the early 2010s. Their cultural influence, however, will remain strong well after the Crisis is over.

Agreed. After more than 30 years of gaining ground in Congress, the Boomers lost 13 House seats in one cycle, far outpacing Silent losses. If and when they do "lose control of Congress" (seems funny to use that term for a generation, but there it is), it won't be because Xers are politically precocious, but because Boomers have lost their political dominance and are relegated to cultural developments much as the only visible GIs during the last 3T were in politics. So Boomers may be directing and acting in movies into the next 1T, but will be mostly off the political scene.

Mr. Reed
my overly optimistic Boomer comments were made to cheer up JPT.

Although they do say that 60 for a Boomer is what 50 used to be for the GI generation. The numbers in Congress may indeed go down - but the influence will still be powerful. I am sure JPT finds that comforting.