Anybody a little nervous/hopeful -

http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=15501&size=A

Voter turn out in Iranian elections well above expectations

Polling has been extended to cope with the stream of voters indicating a return of young people in election participation. It is similar to 1979, when the “reformist” Khatami swept to power beating the Supreme Guide’s candidate. Even the ayatollahs appear divided.

The Brits are giving frequent reports from the polling places -

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/...dleeast#helper

3.50pm:
Polling time has been extended until 8pm (4.30pmBST) AP confirmed, in another sign of the huge turnout.

3.35pm:
The Ahmadinejad camp claims their man is winning.

"Based on the evaluation of Ahmadinejad's position he is ahead ... with 60% of the votes and we are certain that the election will end in the first round in his favour," Ali Asghar Zarei told Mehr News Agency, according to Reuters.

3.30pm:
The polls should now have closed, but there are reports that voting has again be extending. An anonymous blogger posting on Bazar Dispatch says it took some friends up to two hours to vote.

The posts says:


Today temperature in Tehran rise to 90 F (32'C), warmer than all days before, and yet people were and are standing long lines in shade and under blazing sun. It is an odd image of Tehran: quiet streets, deserted shopping centers and yet crowded mosques, high schools, schools and colleges. It is election day.

An unprecedented number of voters are casting their vote today. The stations were and are packed with lines coming out of the building and going around the corner.

The individuals waiting in them are from all walks of life, there are Chador wearing women, young ladies wearing the latest fashion and make up, there are old people walking with cane and there are young students with their notes and textbooks in their hands, it is a long wait.

One voted told me he and his sister waited for 2 hours and half to cast their votes. There is an air of a united people present that makes one feel romantic.

I voted in Al-Zahra University station in Vanak Village, it took me 45 minutes waiting time. Most people around me were voting for Mr. Mousavi.

With number present today, one wonders if this is going to be a landslide.

3.15pm:
Voting has been extended by one hour Reuters reports. The polls will close in 15 minutes at 7 pm (3.30 BST) because of heavy queues at polling stations, the Interior Ministry said.

3pm:
Omid, a 28-year old English student, says many of his relatives who had
never voted before have done today - just to get rid of Ahmadinejad, writes Ian Black.

He reports visiting many polling stations in the centre and north of Tehran and insists the turnout is far larger than in 1997, when the reformist Mohammed Khatemi won a landslide victory that ushered in a period of liberalisation at home and detente abroad.

Omid's firm conclusion: a Mousavi win today - not in a second round next week. And some of his conservative friends have switched from Ahmadinejad to Rezaei after the president's embarrassing performance on the economy during their TV debate earlier this week.

Ahmadinejad's charts "explaining" his control of inflation and other indices became an instant laughing stock.

2.15pm:
There are still huge queues to vote and the candidates have had to be reminded about the elections rules on campaigning, writes Ian Black from Tehran.

The central elections committee is warning them to stay away from polling stations because their presence might imply they were still campaigning - in breach of the rules.

IRB TV reports from Shahrikord in southern Iran that lines at polling stations seem to be getting longer as the day goes on. It's the same story in Kerman, home to those wonderful fresh green pistachios.

Back in Tehran, my old friend Koroush, who is proud to say he has never yet voted, insists he will not change his mind even this time, when there is so much excitement about possible change.

It was apathy like that on a massive scale that helped bring Ahmadinejad to power in 2005. That was such a shock that the British Embassy here had to hold an internal enquiry to work out why they had been blind-sided. It concluded they just hadn't been listening to the right people. Let's hope they are this time.

2pm:
The Guardian has a wonderful new gallery of images from today's poll. And there's more from Saeed Kamali Dehghan on the turnout and fears of vote rigging:

More than 4 million votes were cast by midday, according to Iran's interior minister, Sadeq Mahsouli.

He also told Iran's state-run TV that there are not enough polling centres due to the high turnout - and that voting might extend until midnight.

There is a lot of concern among Mousavi supporters about the polling centres in Iran's embassy in the United Arab Emirates (home to half a million Iranians), where there are no reformist representatives to monitor voting.

The interior ministry had also increased the numbers of mobile voting booths - which collect votes from small villages, hospitals and other hard-to-reach places - to 14,000, 10 times more than in the last elections.

Many analysts fear the lack of monitoring of mobile polls might also lead to widespread vote-rigging. Pejman Semnani, an 20-year-old Iranian university student I met in a Tehran polling booth, expressed his fears about mobile polls: "Mobile polls are able to change the results, everybody is concerned about the increase in the number of mobile polls, which reformist newspapers say is neither reasonable nor necessary."

1.30pm:
Saeed Kamali Dehghan writes from Tehran:



There may be four candidates in this election, but it's all about Ahmadinejad and Mousavi, with little obvious support for either Mehdi Karroubi or Mohsen Rezaie. Rezaie's website also appears to have been blocked since the morning.

Mehdi Tavasol, a 27-year-old pro-Karroubi voter says: "I'm pretty sure that Karroubi will not win but the important thing is that any vote for Karroubi and Rezaie will help also Mousavi, because it would drag Ahmadinejad's votes under 50% and would increase the possibility of having a second round of voting."

Progressive Iranians have been worried that Karroubi's presence in the election might affect the reformists' chances of victory but today many analysts are arguing that it might actually help him by attracting Ahmadinejad's votes. Kambiz Moradi, a 47-year-old school teacher believes that Karroubi's presence in the election might also attract voters who didn't participate in the last election.

"Rezaie is also a hardliner and fundamentalist but he is not as popular as Ahmadinejad, so his presence in the election would help Mousavi by attracting Ahmadinejad's votes‚" he explains.

Mousavi's campaign website says he will win in at least 21 out of 30 provinces. By contrast, Rajanews.com, a news website affiliated to Ahmadinejad's supporters, says their opinion polls suggest he will gain 61.5% of the total ballot by the end of the day.

1pm:
Turnout is "unprecedented" says Ian Black in his latest audio dispatch from Tehran. He also talks about reports of vote-rigging and Mousavi's pledge of talks with the US.

4.50pm:
Update: Voting has been extended for a third time, Reuters reporters. Polls will now close at 9pm (5.30pmBST).

5.10pm:
President Obama said that his government was "excited" about the debate surrounding the elections, Reuters report. "Whoever ends up winning, the fact there has been a robust debate hopefully will advance our ability to engage them in new ways," he said.

6.35pm:
As night fell on Tehran the heavens opened with a deliciously cooling
downpour after a very long hot day, writes Ian Black in his final blog posting of the day.

Amazingly, polling stations are still open and heaving, with voting extended for a fourth extra hour to accommodate what by all accounts is a massive voter turnout that could even break the 1997 record.

Friends in the Mousavi camp can hardly contain their excitement at what they think is the likelihood of imminent victory. But they say they are worried about a last-minute hitch: the meaning of a reported shortage of ballot papers in some places, for example, and ominous predictions that the regime may lash out if Ahmadinejad does lose.

A Revolutionary Guard warning about not tolerating a "velvet revolution" by the Iranian "greens" has been noted with some alarm. The blocking of SMS messages throughout the day was almost certainly designed to disrupt contact between Mousavi supporters.

"We are all very excited," said a North Tehran photographer, "but we fear that we may have to pay for our empowerment."

Will youth be served?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide.../iran-election

Iran 2009 = America 1967-1968.

Originally Posted by Matt1989

Iran 2009 = America 1967-1968.

I think you are spot on.

Originally Posted by Matt1989

Iran 2009 = America 1967-1968.

What's Farsi for CREEP?

Originally Posted by BBC

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been re-elected as president of Iran in a resounding victory, the interior minister says.
He won some 62.6% of the vote in an election marked by a turnout of more than 80%, official figures show.

The POTIROI returned by...

support mainly from the urban poor and rural areas, while his rivals have support among the middle classes and the educated urban population.

Iran is ruled under a system known as Velayat-e Faqih, or "Rule by the Supreme Jurist", who is currently Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

It was adopted by an overwhelming majority in 1979 following the Islamic revolution which overthrew the autocratic Western-backed Shah.
But the constitution also stipulates that the people are the source of power and the country holds phased presidential and parliamentary elections every four years.

All candidates are vetted by the powerful conservative-controlled Guardian Council, which also has the power to veto legislation it deems inconsistent with revolutionary principles.

I listened to PBS before and after the Pens victory over the aged Red Wings and it was all blather about the coming victory of an aged has-been. The Foreign Policy experts proved clueless when discussing the Reform (internal) of Eurasia.

Ahmadinejad's the one!

Originally Posted by Matt1989

Iran 2009 = America 1967-1968.

Amen. Mass protests in Tehran met by police crackdowns.

Jesus Christ, Iran may be 2T right now but this just proves how much underlying political instability there is in the world right now due to 4T pressures.
Oh yeah and the United States is rejecting Adamenjad's claim of victory.

Iran is clearly 2T right now, their Baby Boom is college educated, pro-West, hates Ahmadinejad, and won't take a rigged election lying down.

Originally Posted by writerGrrl

...
Oh yeah and the United States is rejecting Adamenjad's claim of victory.

Does anyone recall the views of either the media in Media or the POTIROI when the contest between Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush was about?

Did T4Ters or Commercial Republicans, more generally, take any account of Persian passions upon the hanging chads of the Everglade State? Why does not the Padishah Numbers hold your Progressive abasements? Do advise.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Does anyone recall the views of either the media in Media or the POTIROI when the contest between Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush was about?

Did T4Ters or Commercial Republicans, more generally, take any account of Persian passions upon the hanging chads of the Everglade State? Why does not the Padishah Numbers hold your Progressive abasements? Do advise.

Oil, Virgil, oil.

Wow, just saw an article posted on Democratic Underground saying that the military is involved and that one of the ayatollahs close to the military (not the Supreme Leader), issued a fatwa saying to rig the election!

The article I mentioned:

http://www.democraticunderground.com...esg_id=5844331

Originally Posted by Matt1989

Iran 2009 = America 1967-1968.

On another site, saw mention that having children was encouraged during the Iran/Iraq war (~20 years ago) and that they were a huge cohort "just like our Baby Boom."

I had thought that the 1979 revolution was a 2T event, but combined with the war and recent events(at a generationally significant period later) it sounds like that was the 4T and the 2T is right on schedule

RV

Originally Posted by RanxeroxVox

On another site, saw mention that having children was encouraged during the Iran/Iraq war (~20 years ago) and that they were a huge cohort "just like our Baby Boom."

I had thought that the 1979 revolution was a 2T event, but combined with the war and recent events(at a generationally significant period later) it sounds like that was the 4T and the 2T is right on schedule

RV

If that's the case, I wonder what was the coup that brought the shah into power in the 1950's was.

Originally Posted by playwrite

4.50pm:
Update: Voting has been extended for a third time, Reuters reporters. Polls will now close at 9pm (5.30pmBST).

5.10pm:
President Obama said that his government was "excited" about the debate surrounding the elections, Reuters report. "Whoever ends up winning, the fact there has been a robust debate hopefully will advance our ability to engage them in new ways," he said.

6.35pm:
As night fell on Tehran the heavens opened with a deliciously cooling
downpour after a very long hot day, writes Ian Black in his final blog posting of the day.

Amazingly, polling stations are still open and heaving, with voting extended for a fourth extra hour to accommodate what by all accounts is a massive voter turnout that could even break the 1997 record.

Friends in the Mousavi camp can hardly contain their excitement at what they think is the likelihood of imminent victory. But they say they are worried about a last-minute hitch: the meaning of a reported shortage of ballot papers in some places, for example, and ominous predictions that the regime may lash out if Ahmadinejad does lose.

A Revolutionary Guard warning about not tolerating a "velvet revolution" by the Iranian "greens" has been noted with some alarm. The blocking of SMS messages throughout the day was almost certainly designed to disrupt contact between Mousavi supporters.

"We are all very excited," said a North Tehran photographer, "but we fear that we may have to pay for our empowerment."

-Oops.

Reminds me of Venezuela...

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Oil, Virgil, oil.

-Hmmm...

Reminds me of Venezuela, but with nukes...

Originally Posted by Odin

Iran is clearly 2T right now, their Baby Boom is college educated, pro-West, hates Ahmadinejad, and won't take a rigged election lying down.

-Don't hold your breath. I suspect they'll take it sitting down in front over their satellite TVs.

But, time will tell.

Makes me wonder what would've happened if something like Election 2000 happened with our current 4T mentality.

Originally Posted by RanxeroxVox

On another site, saw mention that having children was encouraged during the Iran/Iraq war (~20 years ago) and that they were a huge cohort "just like our Baby Boom."

I had thought that the 1979 revolution was a 2T event, but combined with the war and recent events(at a generationally significant period later) it sounds like that was the 4T and the 2T is right on schedule

RV

Nah. The Tehran Hostage Crisis was the biggest sit-in of all time, and Iran/Iraq was Persia's own Vietnam, if a bit closer to home. The current nuclearization reminds me of the rearmament of Germany.

Originally Posted by Malise Ruthven

in the current New York Review of Books...In a brief but masterful compression of insights gained from readings of Norman Cohn, founding father of millennial studies, and other scholars in the field, Amanat reviews the dynamics of apocalyptic histories. On the positive side the anticipation of imminent divine judgment can be translated into a message of social justice, with individual choice replacing dogmas handed down by ancestors, tribes, or communities. Historically, apocalyptic movements tend to be socially inclusive, appealing especially to the deprived, marginalized, and dispossessed. The negative side is the demonization of perceived enemies in a world where the People of God—the saved remnant of humanity—see themselves as the sole bearers of divine wisdom or knowledge. The utopian project of realizing paradise—when the messiah's followers choose to enact the millennial scenario in real historical time—may be as devastating as the earthquakes, fires, plagues, and wars of apocalyptic imaginings.

Is B O H possibly the 12 Imam as well as Gray Champion of the Anglosphere? Is he allowing the Persians WMD assets to further both those roles? Do advise.

Is not the Democrat Party "socially inclusive, appealing especially to the deprived, marginalized, and dispossessed."

And does not the Democrat Party engage in the demonization of perceived enemies in a world where the Democrats —the saved remnant of humanity—see themselves as the sole bearers of divine wisdom or knowledge?

Is Turning Yearning the anticipation of imminent divine judgment {which} can be translated into a message of social justice, with individual choice replacing dogmas handed down by ancestors, tribes, or communities {Tradition}?

The utopian project of realizing paradise, the Crisis birthed High, may be as devastating as the gifts of Nature, Nature's God, or Providence. HTH

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/...urn_06-18.html

Iranian Protesters Mourn Deaths as Guardian Council Calls in Candidates

Supporters of Iranian presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi rallied in Tehran again Thursday, many dressed in black and carrying candles to mourn demonstrators killed in post-election clashes, according to witnesses.

Will this whitewash work -

Mousavi appealed the results to Iran's 12-member Guardian Council, which vets new laws and certifies election results. The elite legislative body said Thursday that it had invited candidates challenging official election results to a Saturday meeting to discuss their grievances, state media reported, according to the New York Times and the Washington Post.

Closely related to turdblossoming (*TM)-
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...&postcount=429

- is “turd amnesia”

Here we have a parade of Repubs demanding Obama do more, engage more, including former candidate 'bomb-bomb-bomb-Iran-Johnny' -

http://www.dailykostv.com/w/001859/

Just exactly what do these trigger-happy idiots want the US to do?

Perhaps these great thinkers of the GOP want to do exactly what Bush Sr did back in early 90s for the Kurds and the southern Iraqi Shia. Rattle our swords and let them know how much we will come to their aid - then sit back, cluck our tongues and watch them get slaughter.

God, I hope these idiots never again get the chance to bring their stink to the Oval Office.

The basics of the Iranian elements of force.

Originally Posted by The Moderate Voice

Following a few days of restrained responses to opposition protests, the Iranian regime is now starting to violently clamp down. As seen in other situations of popular unrest, the cohesiveness of its security forces is one of the most crucial factors. The big question, therefore, is whether Iran’s security forces follow orders or fragment and switch sides to join their fellow citizens. The regime’s security apparatus is not a unified entity — and each of its constituent parts has different responsibilities as well as different allegiances.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the ideological and military guarantor of national security for the Islamic Republic, with responsibility for security challenges ranging from Iran’s nuclear program to containing domestic disturbances. They have also been the core beneficiary of the militarization of the regime, with an increasing presence in all branches of government.

The paramilitary Basij is a “people’s militia” that is the frontline, street-level expression of repression. It reportedly numbers close to a million men, mostly in small units that are attached to a mosque or university campus, and is tasked with controlling, mobilizing, and indoctrinating the wider population.

The third group involved in suppressing the protests is Ansar-e Hezbollah, a small vigilante group formed in the 1990s by former Basij and other hardliners with a passionate devotion to “purifying” the 1979 revolution. Its exact number is unknown, but it probably counts in the low one thousands and comprises the vanguard units used to intimidate regime opponents.

While Ansar-e Hezbollah is comprised of ideological stalwarts whose regime loyalty is seen as unshakeable, both the IRGC and the Basij are susceptible to fragmentation.

If this business in Iran develops as I suspect it might, with an attempt at a 'Tiananmen Square' blowing up in the regime's face, I figure the best thing we can do is just sit back and watch, without saying or doing anything to encourage either side.

While about a different issue (war, elections), the fatal shooting of "Neda," a 27-year-old female protestor which was captured by amateur video and is on YouTube (rather graphic, but it's just blood, nothing else, and this version is blurred) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRiLa8j7Js0 seems to me to be not a bad parallel to Kent State. Everyone has seen those pictures of that man lying face down in the street on Kent State with that woman crying over him after he'd been shot by the Guard. It's in history books. Well, with this all over YouTube it makes it a big deal right away, and makes her a martyr for the opposition protests. I wonder if the prognosis of this is for her death to become a rallying cry down the road, just like the Kent State Massacre became one.