Happy new decade. :

First, a link to the past.

Perhaps it is a little bit ambitious to start a thread that is intended to cover a whole decade in real time. I certainly hope that others here will feel free to contribute as events unfurl. This is the decade that should prove to be a true proving ground for the theory. We should hit rock bottom sometime before the year 2020 arrives.
And that is saying a lot all in itself. For now I'm going to take leave and observe the decade which should prove to be our heartland of the winter.

The discipline of numerology has a lot of interesting things to say about the decade that began a few hours ago.

2 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 3, making the 2010's what is known in the trade as a 3-decade.

In numerology, the number 3 represents, among other things, brilliance, boldness, expressiveness - and material prosperity, or "good luck" (though the latter is de-emphasized by modern numerologists).

The key to this decade will be how the above characteristics blend in with the saeculum.

The last 3-decade - the 1920s - took place against the backdrop of a 3T; and the "Roaring Twenties" prominently displayed the features of both.

How will a 3-decade and a Fourth Turning combine? With a "booming" economy fueled by crisis (4T)?

That sounds an awful lot like war to me.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Happy new decade. :

First, a link to the past.

Perhaps it is a little bit ambitious to start a thread that is intended to cover a whole decade in real time. I certainly hope that others here will feel free to contribute as event unfurl. This is the decade that should prove to be a true proving ground for the theory. We should hit rock bottom sometime before the year 2020 arrives.
And that is saying a lot all in itself. For now I'm going to take leave and observe the decade which should prove to be our heartland of the winter.

It occurred to me that this is the third decade during which this forum has been active, and in which I've posted (my first was in the winter or spring of 1999).

Since January was named after Janus, the god who could look forward and backward and the risk that those who cannot remember history may well repeat it, I felt inspired to post this article before we get any further into the new decade. Yes, it is a Daily Kos article, but I haven't seen a better summing up of why the last decade was what we would call 3T and why we can't afford to bumble around with failed ideas much longer. The bold type is from the article.

Originally Posted by Devilstower

Now that the decade we still don't know how to name is in rear view (even if the "Objects in Mirror Are Closer Than They Seem" label is still very visible), there's been something of a movement to forget the last ten years. There are web sites, pundits, and television shows pushing the idea that we should just put the decade of zeros out of our minds, write it off as a lost period, and move on...

...If you think you remember the worst days more clearly, it's because you do. There's a good reason for this. For a primate making it's living back in the savanna, every moment of every day wasn't worth recording in the big book of memories. But the time you went down to the water hole and a leopard nearly jumped you? That one gets a page all it's own -- one with flashy stickers and a bright red border.

As tempting as it is to forget the bad times, the reason there's a whole friggin' biological system built around the idea of burning these events irrevocably into your cerebellum in 18pt type is so you don't do it again ...

...Here's the thing about the naughts: there was nothing magic about the numbers. It wasn't because of a double-zero in the middle of the dates that we launched an invasion that's cost the lives of thousands of Americans, the lives of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, and a trillion dollars plus out of the pocketbooks of taxpayers. We launched into that still unresolved idiocy because of bad policy based on the conservative philosophy of smash things first, think never. We went there because of a extreme version of American exceptionalism, one that views America as above the the rules of law and exempt from questions of morality. A view that says not only if the president does it, it's not a crime, but that if America does it, it can't be wrong.

It wasn't the decade that caused the economy to come down in tatters. It was a conservative approach to the marketplace that views government as the enemy, greed as the only acceptable motivation, and the only solution for disasters brought on by a lack of regulation as still less regulation.

It wasn't the calendar that brought down the banks, or American manufacturing, or American's influence around the world. It wasn't the date that added torture to the list of growth industries while erasing our budget surplus.

Don't forget the naughts, because this decade, no matter what anyone on the right might say, was conservatism on trial. You want less taxes? You got less taxes. You want less regulation? You got less regulation. Open markets? Wide open. An illusuion of security in place of rights? Hey, presto. Think we should privatize war by handing unlimited power given to military contractors so they can kick butt and take names? Kiddo, we passed out boots and pencils by the thousands. Everything, everything, that ever showed up on a drooled-over right wing wish list got implemented -- with a side order of Freedom Fries.

They will try to disown it, and God knows if I was responsible for this mess I'd be disowning it, too. But the truth is that the conservatives got everything they wanted in the decade just past, everything that they've claimed for forty years would make America "great again". They didn't fart around with any "red dog Republicans." They rolled over their moderates and implemented a conservative dream.

What did we get for it? We got an economy in ruins, a government in massive debt, unending war, and the repudiation of the world. There's no doubt that Republicans want you to forget the last decade, because if you remember... if you remember when you went down to the water hole and were jumped by every lunacy that ever emerged from the wet dreams of Grover Norquist and Dick Cheney, well, it's not likely that you'd give them a chance to do it again.

And they will. Given half a chance -- less than half -- they'll do it again, only worse. Because that's the way conservatism works. Remember when the only answer to every economic problem was "cut taxes?" We have a surplus. Good, let's cut taxes. We have a deficit. Hey, cut taxes even more! That little motto was unchanging even when was clear that the tax cuts were increasing the burden on everyone but a wealthy few. That's just a subset of the great conservative battle whine which is now and forever "we didn't go far enough." If deregulation led to a crash, it's because we didn't deregulate enough. If the wars aren't won, it's because we haven't started enough wars. If there are people still clinging to their rights, it's because we haven't done enough to make them afraid.

Forget the naughts, and you'll forget that conservatives had another chance to prove all their ideas, and that their ideas utterly and completely failed. Again.

The point of remembering bad events is to stop them from repeating. So remember, and remind others if they start to forget. Because really, this is one trip to the water hole we can't afford to repeat.

I doubt that anyone will consider this last ten years the good old days. And maybe it's better that way.

The only way in which the Double-Zero Decade will be looked upon as the "Good Old Days" will be if a nuclear war breaks out in the 2010s.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

The only way in which the Double-Zero Decade will be looked upon as the "Good Old Days" will be if a nuclear war breaks out in the 2010s.

The night is still young.

From The Fourth Turning;

Once the Crisis catalyzes, anything can happen. If you are starting a career now, realize that generalists with survival know-how will have the edge over specialists whose skills are useful only in an undamaged environment. Be fluent in as many languages, cultures, and technologies as you can. Your business will face a total alteration of market conditions: Expect public subsidies to vanish, the regulatory environment to change quickly, and new trade barriers to arise. Avoid debt or leverage investments, including massive student debt. Assume that all your external safety nets (pensions, Social Security, Medicare) could end up totally shredded.

While I don't see WWIII happening any time soon, I do think this turning may end with a Chinese revolution or civil-war. A country that will see growth while other leading nations erode to third world status if things get worse, really (I don't think we'll get that bad though.). Our strongest nation in the world an over-populated autocracy? That's a crisis.

Originally Posted by thejobloshow

From The Fourth Turning;

While I don't see WWIII happening any time soon, I do think this turning may end with a Chinese revolution or civil-war. A country that will see growth while other leading nations erode to third world status if things get worse, really (I don't think we'll get that bad though.). Our strongest nation in the world an over-populated autocracy? That's a crisis.

Just remember, a huge amount of America's debt is held by China. If the US economy and dollar fully tank, the Chinese may just make the Louisiana Purchase look small. Remember all the 'imminent domain' laws that have been strengthened in 3T? Strauss & Howe were right; "Be fluent in as many languages, cultures and technologies as possible. Business will face a total alteration of market conditions. Public subsidies will vanish."

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

The only way in which the Double-Zero Decade will be looked upon as the "Good Old Days" will be if a nuclear war breaks out in the 2010s.

Well, keep in mind that the 1920's signified "the good ol' days" in America for a long, long time! I would guess that future generations will actually have mostly good, if culturally misremembered, associations with our past decade (that is to say, things are going to get worse).

-----

Originally Posted by MJC

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

The only way in which the Double-Zero Decade will be looked upon as the "Good Old Days" will be if a nuclear war breaks out in the 2010s.

Well, keep in mind that the 1920's signified "the good ol' days" in America for a long, long time! I would guess that future generations will actually have mostly good, if culturally misremembered, associations with our past decade (that is to say, things are going to get worse).

The '20s are a lot more like the '90s than the '00s. I'm sure 1990s nostalgia will be common.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

I doubt that anyone will consider this last ten years the good old days. And maybe it's better that way.

But many on this board have compared the past decade to the Roaring 20's, and that decade was heavily romanticized during the 1950's and early 1960's; so much so, in fact, that the decade had its own TV show for a time. So, three decades hence, the naughts might yet receive their share of nostalgia.

Originally Posted by Xer H

Just remember, a huge amount of America's debt is held by China. If the US economy and dollar fully tank, the Chinese may just make the Louisiana Purchase look small. Remember all the 'imminent domain' laws that have been strengthened in 3T? Strauss & Howe were right; "Be fluent in as many languages, cultures and technologies as possible. Business will face a total alteration of market conditions. Public subsidies will vanish."

But, thanks to a think tank titled the Institute for Justice, eminent domain laws have begun more and more to be challenged, and rightly so. And there have been cases where the common folk have one. The landmark Suzette Kelo case has been made into a book titled "Little Pink House" and wouldn't be surprised if a movie one day develops. Now is the time for challenge, while there are still enough people alive who can remember losing their homes to make room for all those fabulous Interestate highways. Up until IJ began their crusade, eminent domain was one of the hardest things to beat, and was pretty much an automatic death sentence for your home or business. Thank God some people are now seeing it for what it really is. BTW, the Kelo case was only a partial victory. The lady did get to keep her house, but it was moved to make room for a proposed development which, last time I checked, was never built. That area of New London, CT was for all intents and purposes a ghost town.

I must say I find the berating of the 1920s a bit grating. In the world in which I grew up (the 1940s and 1950s), the 1920s were the "good old days". The adults that ran my world certainly did not look back on World I or the Depression and World War II with any nostalgia. It was the 20s with its flappers, le jazz hot, raccoon coats, the Charleston, speakeasies, bathtub gin, Fitzgerald, Hemingway, and Faulkner that was looked back on with fondness. This picture of carefree, harmless and innocent fun formed my consciousness of what good old days were all about, and I still have difficulty shaking the images imparted to me by my elders who lived it.

Pax,

Dave Krein '42

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

The '20s are a lot more like the '90s than the '00s. I'm sure 1990s nostalgia will be common.

and

Originally Posted by David Krein

I must say I find the berating of the 1920s a bit grating. In the world in which I grew up (the 1940s and 1950s), the 1920s were the "good old days". The adults that ran my world certainly did not look back on World I or the Depression and World War II with any nostalgia. It was the 20s with its flappers, le jazz hot, raccoon coats, the Charleston, speakeasies, bathtub gin, Fitzgerald, Hemingway, and Faulkner that was looked back on with fondness. This picture of carefree, harmless and innocent fun formed my consciousness of what good old days were all about, and I still have difficulty shaking the images imparted to me by my elders who lived it.

I think that you both are right. The future nostalgia that centers on our just past 3T will likely focus on 1990ish themes moreso than on 2000ish ones.

@herbal_tee.

I agree and I disagree. The 1920s are more like the 00s as both were an accumulation of excess effected greatly by technology in development from the previous decade plus an interesting mix of tough times mixed with fun times. (The Black Eyed Peas told us to "get retarded".)

Generally, the 1900s and 1910s were passive and bland much like the 80s and 90's. And the 1890s are such an antithesis of the 1970s it is almost an evil twin. The time line fits nicely. 8D

However, the 00's wasn't all bad.

The truth is we never had it better at home in the 00's. Web 2.0 solved a lot of issues of proximity and access to information, late Gen Ys had a relatively good upbringing that mirrored early Gen Ys (High School Musical = Care Bears, Grand Theft Auto = Mortal Kombat, Michael Jackson = Michael Jackson) and one final thing - the 00's will be remembered fondly by some because we might end this decade with digital distribution taking over most industries.

No more book or DVD stores or news stands... everything will be downloaded to our computers or e-readers. Yes, if that happens the 2000's would have been a charming little time.

Originally Posted by thejobloshow

@herbal_tee.

I agree and I disagree. The 1920s are more like the 00s as both were an accumulation of excess effected greatly by technology in development from the previous decade plus an interesting mix of tough times mixed with fun times. (The Black Eyed Peas told us to "get retarded".)

Well, I'm glad that you found fun in the big zero decade. It's good to know that somebody did.

Originally Posted by tjbs

Generally, the 1900s and 1910s were passive and bland much like the 80s and 90's.

While the 80's were a bland conformist time, IMHO the 90's were more like an indian summer in the saecular autumn. The grunge movement and the tech boom,with their raw Xer spirit and sense of the possible added a lot of variety, the falling leaves if you will, to what would in streaching from the twin fear mantra of "just say 'no' " to "911 changed everything" otherwise have been an autumn almost devoid of color.

And the 1890s are such an antithesis of the 1970s it is almost an evil twin. The time line fits nicely. 8D

That could be interpreted either way. Who are the evil ones, the opium drinking, haystack rolling missionaries or the SDRR hippies? ::
Besides, IMHO., in terms of "change the world" idealism, the 1890's are much more like the 1960's than the more cynical 70's.

However, the 00's wasn't all bad.

The truth is we never had it better at home in the 00's. Web 2.0 solved a lot of issues of proximity and access to information, late Gen Ys had a relatively good upbringing that mirrored early Gen Ys (High School Musical = Care Bears, Grand Theft Auto = Mortal Kombat, Michael Jackson = Michael Jackson)

But are violent video games and Michael Jackson really great cultural accomplishments?
I'm not saying that such an argument would be difficult to make, but it wouldn't be that hard to take it apart either.

and one final thing - the 00's will be remembered fondly by some because we might end this decade with digital distribution taking over most industries.

No more book or DVD stores or news stands... everything will be downloaded to our computers or e-readers. Yes, if that happens the 2000's would have been a charming little time.

I think that you have something here. This will have to get played out over the next few years.

At any rate, that was an interesting exchange. Welcome to the forum. :

The 1920s, despite the cultural nostalgia the late-wave Lost & Interbellum imparted to their Silent kids, wasn't really the best of times. Sure the subculture was fun--if you lived in the cities--but everything else wasn't so cheery as the rose colored glasses tell us.

Crime levels increased (not so bad as the 1930s or 1940s, but hey, compared to the 1910s it was much worse) as gang wars, mobsters, and people like Al Capone ruled the streets (and speakeasys). The decade started with a small depression, continued with recovery, had a lot of bubble bursting economic troubles that made and broke millionaires from week to week, and all of this landslided with a large stock market crash that put the country in a decade and a half Depression (with its own ups and downs I'll grant). Race protests & KKK marches were very much a reality--the ideology of white supremacy was quite popular with the majority of Americans at the time. Immigration protests were at a peak, and if you were Catholic or of Southern/Eastern European descent life wasn't all whoopee and 23 skidoo; but rather living in slums or in assigned sections of the city--where having a brick being thrown through an already broken window by an angry mob would've been commonplace. OTOH, if you were white, Protestant, affluent, and living in the city; life was great. You could go to the speakeasys where black bands played (but never allowed blacks in as patrons) and Jazz was considered not an intellectual thing but rather considered part of a decadent self-gratifying party lifestyle akin to the Techno & Pop played in modern clubs. (Jazz didn't gain an intellectual edge to it until the 1950s when the GIs adopted it as "American Classical Music", & the Silent Beatniks of the 1950s devled into the 1930s Bebop Jazz subculture). The 1920s was great if you were part of a small percentage of people, & absolutely horrible if you weren't. It wasn't a completely party for everyone despite what Sally Bowles says in the musical Cabaret:

Put down the knitting,
The book and the broom.
Time for a holiday.
Life is Cabaret, old chum,
Come to the Cabaret.

Come taste the wine,
Come hear the band.
Come blow your horn,
Start celebrating;
Right this way,
Your table's waiting

No use permitting
some prophet of doom
To wipe every smile away.
Come hear the music play.
Life is a Cabaret, old chum,
Come to the Cabaret!

Sure technology jumped by leaps and bounds in the 1920s & improved life, just as it did during this past decade. However there was just as much fear of that technology & change: example, during the 1920s it was thought that chain & department stores would be the end of the American way of life. (akin to how we've thought of Big Box stores in this decade). During the 1990s, the Internet was like how automobiles & electricity was during the 1910s: a toy for the affluent, not something for Everyman, and there wasn't much you could do with it. In the 1990s you had the Internet just for the sake of saying that you had the Internet and there wasn't much to do on it--very much like how people said they had elecricity and cars in the 1910s. Re-watch the 1998 movie You've Got Mail, it looks sentimentally quaint in terms of Internet culture (depicted as simply chatrooms & email), and obviously focuses on the part of the populace who can afford such a luxury--well off or relatively well off city-dwellers. The 1920s saw nearly every home in America gain electricity & get a family car--better than previous ones I might add. Just like the 2000s saw nearly every home in America gain the Internet--with better connections than had been ever thought of in the 1990s. Dial-up is a quaint old-fashioned idea, while today most people take advantage of wi-fi, LAN networks, and broadband. Expansion of Internet culture mirrors the Car culture of the 1920s, i.e. back seat romping & "the Internet is for p0rn" mentalities. You also figured out what else you could do with a car in the 1920s--have a holiday drive with the newly developed concept of a weekend. The Internet likewise gained a purpose in the 2000s with the rise of MMORPGs, better websites & forums, social networking, etc. This is what we'll mostly focus on in our nostalgia for the 2000s, the early Frontier days of Internet culture (before world-wide regulation for decency came about ).

Also, the 1990s weren't bland and passive? Where did you live? When I think of the 1990s, I think of the Indian Summer dream that the nation fell under b/c of Clinton which is perfectly captured in the movies: Dave & The American President. The idea that there still were some good liberal Americans doing good things out there--like trying to get jobs for everyone, sacrificing a gun control bill for more important environmental legislature, and cutting the unnecessary budget expenses to save orphan shelters--without having all the moral screw-ups (cough)Lewinsky(cough). They might be liberal in legislation, but they are very much conformist & morally upright--the attire popular then screamed conformist--very much descended from Working Girl. That's the 1990s adult world in a nutshell & how most Yers remember their parents @ the time. That's the Indian Summer that I refer to in my thread on the subject, that's how 1912 was remembered for all those who nostalgiacized it. People weren't so much obsessed with the 1910s as a decade, rather 1912 as a year--that's what the decade was remembered for in the following High and they chose to edit out the WWI memories until East of Eden came along and started ripping apart nostalgia for the period by showing the teenage Lost angst. Similarly when the 1990s nostalgia really gets going, I predict it'll eventually be shattered by the Grunge & Kobain cultural reruns. Thus I wouldn't call what you refer to as Indian Summer, but rather the Midnight Harvest Carnival we call Mischief Night & Halloween. Sure you can't have the Indian Summer without having the Halloween as well, but try telling nostalgia that.

Look at what the 1990s nostalgia at the moment is: Gen Yers mewing over old Nickolodeon shows/sneaking onto old playgrounds & pinning for their childhoods with liberal but conformist parents. Those shows I might add don't portray good pictures of teenage Xers (with preteen & elementary school Yers often getting beaten up by said Xers; as well as defended on occasion by older Xer siblings but who go "figure it out yourself dip$h!t" most of the times whenever the Yer runs into problems). This is very much akin to the 1912 nostalgia of Interbellums mewing over plays, musicals, photos, and books that depict their childhoods with liberal but conformist parents. In those musicals, the depicted Lost angst is "settled" or written out of the picture by developing an inventive way around it: like Professor Harold Hill's solution. Also, I haven't seen very many Xers swooning after the 1990s, they seem to prefer the 1980s with Ferris Bueller, Molly Ringwald, and The Breakfast Club. And let's face it, 90210 is the same world as Some Kind of Wonderful. In fact I'd say that the 1980s culture didn't really end until sometime between 1993 & 1995. 1990s culture was pruned a tad early, being clipped by 9/11.

I've often said that the 00s were the 1920s with an extended WWI running through it. So like the 1910s, I figure a certain year will be chosen to exemplify the "best" of the decade. My bet is on 2002--where we were in a justified/popular war, patriotism was on a high, the economy was recovering from the post 9/11 shock, reality TV was as good as it was going to get, and Internet culture was blossoming. At least that's how Homelanders will portray it come the next Awakening, and they'll tack on a syrupy happy ending just for kicks. Hey, it's what the Silents did to the 1920s in the 1960s.

So beat the drums 'cause here comes Thoroughly Modern Millie now! Hallelujah! Boo boo di boop!

~Chas'88

It almost seems as if we've backed into a decade comparison contest here and that was not my intent when starting this thread. However, I will say something about now past decades and their turnings.

One thing to keep in mind is that just as no two saeculiums are the same so it is also true that the same turning is not going to line up precisely decade wise as it did the last time.
For example, this last 3T didn't really have anything that compares to the progressive era.
Also, the American high 1T has fairly clean borders at 1945 and 1963. This is quite unlike the Guilded age 1T which was in effect outside the south by 1870 but may not have affected the defeated mood of white southerners until reconstruction ended in 1877.
There are limits as to how applicable direct comparisons are especially outside of social moment eras. That is the reason why I stated above that I consider the 1890's to line up better with the 1960's than with the 1970's. Simply put, the heart of the boom awakening such as the free speech movement, the summer of love and the Chicago police riot all happened in the 1960's. During the 1890's, we saw the free silver campaign, the Homestead strike, the Pullman strike and Coxley's army all happened in the 1890's.

I could go on but the point is that if we get too far away from the social moments it may be too easy to see patterns that which with the passing of time and the changing of technologies aren't really there. Turnings are mostly about mood and mood is most easily measured at the social moments where things are most notably in flux.

The official US unemployment rate (U3) remained at 10%.
The true unemployment rate (U6) is estimated at 17-18%.
Gas prices are beginning to rise in the aftermath of the 12-25 incedent.

Welcome to January. :

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Gas prices are beginning to rise in the aftermath of the 12-25 incedent.

And the Obama Administration's implacable hostility toward domestic "fossil fuels" exploration sure as hell ain't helping.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

And the Obama Administration's implacable hostility toward domestic "fossil fuels" exploration sure as hell ain't helping.

There are two problems with that as a possible solution.
First, it takes about 10 years for oil to go from being prospected underground at a promising location to being in your gas tank. Allowing unlimited prospecting wouldn't affect the supply of oil thus lowering oil prices for those ten years.
Second, it wouldn't work anyway. We only have about 2% of the world oil reserves. But we use about 20%.

I remember October 1973. The first oil embargo was the beginning. There will be no ending until we have an economy that can't be brought to its knees everytime there is collusion between groups that for their various reasons be they economic, religious a mix of the two or other wish to see the oil dependent west, especially America stumble.

It's a long way to spring.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

And the Obama Administration's implacable hostility toward domestic "fossil fuels" exploration sure as hell ain't helping.

Yes, because more CO2 in the atmosphere is the obvious answer!

Oil is an addiction, we need to kill it, not keep it going.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

There are two problems with that as a possible solution.
First, it takes about 10 years for oil to go from being prospected underground at a promising location to being in your gas tank. Allowing unlimited prospecting wouldn't affect the supply of oil thus lowering oil prices for those ten years.
Second, it wouldn't work anyway. We only have about 2% of the world oil reserves. But we use about 20%.

I remember October 1973. The first oil embargo was the beginning. There will be no ending until we have an economy that can't be brought to its knees everytime there is collusion between groups that for their various reasons be they economic, religious a mix of the two or other wish to see the oil dependent west, especially America stumble.

It's a long way to spring.

I agree with Anthony in that we need to go all-out on domestic oil exploration, including the hallowed Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The reason, however, should not be to keep oil prices low. Rather, we need to ensure for the 2020s a supply of oil period, to keep civilization from collapsing before viable alternative energy sources are in place... including not only solar, wind, geothermal and wave power, but also cleaner-coal and cleaner-nuclear as well.

Even global warming must take a back seat to that, because if we end up falling off a cliff into the Stone Age, 95% of the people on Earth are going to die, and GW won't matter worth a damn.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

The official US unemployment rate (U3) remained at 10%.
The true unemployment rate (U6) is estimated at 17-18%.
Gas prices are beginning to rise in the aftermath of the 12-25 incedent.

Welcome to January. :

Here in Vancouver, USA, the official unemployment rate is something like 13%, with the actual one surely in the 20s. Premium gas just jumped 10 cents this week to $3.099 at the neighborhood pump.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

I agree with Anthony in that we need to go all-out on domestic oil exploration, including the hallowed Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The reason, however, should not be to keep oil prices low. Rather, we need to ensure for the 2020s a supply of oil period, to keep civilization from collapsing before viable alternative energy sources are in place... including not only solar, wind, geothermal and wave power, but also cleaner-coal and cleaner-nuclear as well.

Even global warming must take a back seat to that, because if we end up falling off a cliff into the Stone Age, 95% of the people on Earth are going to die, and GW won't matter worth a damn.

Your stating a totally different issue.
IIRC, we only had about 1.5 billion people at the beginning of the petroleum age.
With our current > 6.5 billion people, the loss of fossil fuel produced fertilizers without a cost effective replacement will lead to a Malthusian die off.