I think in the High after the Crisis (ie post 2025) the 2000s will be seen as equivalent to the Twenties. Much like the '20s the '00s was an era of relatively laissez-faire capitalism and economic growth (from 2002 to 08).

Originally Posted by Chas'88

And let's face it, 90210 is the same world as Some Kind of Wonderful.
~Chas'88

Just thought of this one. 90210 for real is coming Sept. 2. Could we be seeing a lot of reruns and festivals related to that show on that date?

Something to consider when we get further into the current 4T.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Something to consider when we get further into the current 4T.

I could get into designing railroads, I like trains. Just so as I don't have to go work for some private CEO prick. Before I do that, I'll retire too early and live the rest of my days in a flophouse. Do they still have those?

Well, if the purpose here is to mention key events, these past couple of weeks have been major for me...our aryan supreme court's decision made it plain in your face that Corporations run the dreaded government. Our new alpha people, they may not be americans, but money talks and democracy walks. Not to mention our jobs. Walked...

Here in Miami, the Haitian earthquake has been a hometown disaster. Everyone knows someone who has been touched by this event.

As for Obama, after his first year in office, Massachusetts has gone republican. The only message Obama got was that he should pull his old election team together to "control the mid-term elections". How dumb is that guy? He thinks his election team got him elected?

I'm just glad that the Corporations have made voting unnecessary. USA RIP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdSCU-hlpKk

Originally Posted by Odin

Yes, because more CO2 in the atmosphere is the obvious answer!

Oil is an addiction, we need to kill it, not keep it going.

But if China and India - and for that matter, for their own even crasser reasons, Russia and Canada (there's gold in them thar passages!) - keep their windows open, what good does it do the planet if we close ours?

The hot air still gets in the house, and spreads all over it.

Switching gears a little, what does everyone think about the role of women in the 1T or 2T? All the research I'm seeing is leading me to believe that women are emerging as even stronger political and social forces as time goes on, despite what we see in Millennials so far.

Any thoughts on what the role of women may be in the next High or Awakening, based on prior turnings?

Relegated to pink collar jobs such as lawyer, pediatrician....

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

Relegated to pink collar jobs such as lawyer, pediatrician....

... or President?


If a Millie woman ran while Boomers are still a major voting bloc, would they vote for her?

Originally Posted by Xer H

... or President?


If a Millie woman ran while Boomers are still a major voting bloc, would they vote for her?

For and against, but probably neither as a result of her gender. One thing you can count on with us, we never agree on anything.

The day after groundhog day.

Can we afford to repeat our mistakes before we get it right?

I notice that part of the message was "Half of the American workforce is disposable." Historically that's been dealt with by women returning to the home, young workers to school, and elders to retirement. But particularly women returning to the home.

I also note then phrase about providing for families. It's my guess that as the realities of the situation sink in, people will think twice or three times about having children and the birthrate will drop.

Of course, the entire situation could be resolved by entry into a world war, too. China is starting to get a little big for its britches.

An interesting picture, but one that's incompatible with future prosperity. If it becomes true, we can expect periodic mega-breakdowns like this one, as consumer demand fails to absorb production and sustain profits, and the only booms are speculative.

A few things to consider:

"Historically in the U.S. manufacturing jobs paid far higher than service positions"

As was pointed out to me on another thread by Mikebert, this is not true, unless one looks only at history after WW2. As the country shifted from an agrarian to an industrial economy, a large number of industrial workers were women and children, who were paid very little. Manufacturing jobs requiring muscle, like steelworking, paid more but still very little compared to postwar standards. What changed things was the unionization of the workforce near the end of the Great Depression, together with laws and regulations that outlawed child labor and mandated equal pay for women, the eight-hour day with paid overtime, and standards of workplace safety.

Service jobs and information jobs are currently in a similar position to industrial jobs in the late 19th century. What's needed is a similar revolution in such employment as occurred in manufacturing in the 20th.

"Future jobs will be at significantly lower salaries, with far fewer benefits such as healthcare, pensions or paid vacations, and more temporary and contract positions. Large Corporations and their paid political representatives in Congress will argue that any job is good enough for most people in such a recession. Their little secret is that permanently high unemployment and global free trade work in their economic favor by putting downward pressure on labor costs and forcing more and more people to compete for fewer and fewer good jobs."

This is an unsustainable picture. The other side of "their little secret" is that downward pressure on labor costs does NOT work in their favor (that of the fat cats, I mean). The economy will work better, with higher profits for businesses, when the wealth is more widely shared. This is something that we managed to accomplish when a higher percentage of people worked in manufacturing. It was not done by creating more high-paying jobs of the sort that existed then, but by turning low-paying jobs into high-paying ones through worker activism, both private and government.

That's essentially what will have to be done today. There is really no reason to think it can't be.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

It's my guess that as the realities of the situation sink in, people will think twice or three times about having children and the birthrate will drop.

That's what happened in Russia during their last 4T. In fact, since their birthrate crash coincided with a breakdown of the medical system and massive joblessness (and attendant increase of pathologic behaviors like alcoholism and drug abuse), they ended up going through an actual fall in population.

The good news: when the 4T ended, so did the demographic problem. So whatever happens here is more than likely to be temporary.

OH, well I know about the population boom when the 4T ends! I was there to see the last one, remember? My baby brother (a sober greybeard) was part of it.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

I notice that part of the message was "Half of the American workforce is disposable." Historically that's been dealt with by women returning to the home, young workers to school, and elders to retirement. But particularly women returning to the home.

Historically, the poor have never had the luxury of only one income, but over the past few decades, even middle-income families have struggled to manage without two people working. Youth have been banned from the job market since the late 30s, but lately, times have been so hard that few college graduates can find full employment. I pray for the day that my elders retire, but I doubt it will come soon. Unfortunately, I see few lessons for today's labor market that history can offer.

Cities like Ithaca have already issued their own currency. I sometimes wonder if the practice might become widespread as local communities seek desperately to hold together. In the long run, globalization is a good thing, but in the long run, we are all dead.

Originally Posted by threegee

Historically, the poor have never had the luxury of only one income, but over the past few decades, even middle-income families have struggled to manage without two people working. Youth have been banned from the job market since the late 30s, but lately, times have been so hard that few college graduates can find full employment. I pray for the day that my elders retire, but I doubt it will come soon. Unfortunately, I see few lessons for today's labor market that history can offer.

Cities like Ithaca have already issued their own currency. I sometimes wonder if the practice might become widespread as local communities seek desperately to hold together. In the long run, globalization is a good thing, but in the long run, we are all dead.

My 47 Boomer Aunt retired then returned to work when she realized DuPont had given her a lousy deal (so she says as she sits in the McMansion she and my Uncle designed).

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Brian Rush

This is an unsustainable picture. The other side of "their little secret" is that downward pressure on labor costs does NOT work in their favor (that of the fat cats, I mean). The economy will work better, with higher profits for businesses, when the wealth is more widely shared. This is something that we managed to accomplish when a higher percentage of people worked in manufacturing. It was not done by creating more high-paying jobs of the sort that existed then, but by turning low-paying jobs into high-paying ones through worker activism, both private and government.

That's essentially what will have to be done today. There is really no reason to think it can't be.

I am coming more and more to the same conclusion.

Originally Posted by threegee

Historically, the poor have never had the luxury of only one income, but over the past few decades, even middle-income families have struggled to manage without two people working. Youth have been banned from the job market since the late 30s, but lately, times have been so hard that few college graduates can find full employment. I pray for the day that my elders retire, but I doubt it will come soon. Unfortunately, I see few lessons for today's labor market that history can offer.

Cities like Ithaca have already issued their own currency. I sometimes wonder if the practice might become widespread as local communities seek desperately to hold together. In the long run, globalization is a good thing, but in the long run, we are all dead.

Back in the day, my then-husband and I were discussing my gong to school and then work, and he said "You have to understand, in my parents' day, women didn't work. My mother even had a maid!"

And I totally baffled him by saying "What was she? An android?" I had to unpack that by adding "You said women didn't work. Wasn't she a woman?"

He was still baffled and could only answer, with total sincerity, "that's different."

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

I am coming more and more to the same conclusion.

"Why do I pay my employees well? So they can afford to buy my cars" -- Henry Ford.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

"Why do I pay my employees well? So they can afford to buy my cars" -- Henry Ford.

Any 21 Century Henry Fords left in the USA?

Scott Brown secures what is apparently effective control of the Senate for the Republicans by becoming their 41st member in a body of 100.

To celebrate, fellow Republican Senator Richard Shelby announces a blanket hold on "all executive nominations on the Senate calendar." Shelby wants the following military pork projects for his state:

Originally Posted by TPM

- A $40 billion contract to build air-to-air refueling tankers. From CongressDaily: "Northrop/EADS team would build the planes in Mobile, Ala., but has threatened to pull out of the competition unless the Air Force makes changes to a draft request for proposals." Federal Times offers more details on the tanker deal, and also confirms its connection to the hold.

- An improvised explosive device testing lab for the FBI. From CongressDaily: "[Shelby] is frustrated that the Obama administration won't build" the center, which Shelby earmarked $45 million for in 2008. The center is due to be based "at the Army's Redstone Arsenal."

Fiscal responsibility.
The Senate is broken.

The for profit Tea Party convention gets underway in Nashville. "Grass roots" activists pay $550 a ticket to hear Sarah Palen make a speech. Palen, who is billed as just common folk is reported to be getting paid 100k for making the speech.

The February unemployment report is out. The official unemployment rate (U3) falls below double digits to 9.7%. The true unemployment rate (U6) is at 16.5%.
The great recession continues.

Originally Posted by deafskeptic

Any 21 Century Henry Fords left in the USA?

I seriously doubt it.

The official unemployment rate holds steady at 9.7%.

The health care bill is still between a rock and a hard place. The Senate filibuster process has proven to be an immovable rock to ordinary procedure. Thus, only deficit reducing measures can be amended through the process known as reconciliation. And the house remains a hard place to get things done. Stay tuned.

In another sign of the reengagement of citizens in the political process, a new group the Coffee Party has been formed. They generally claim to be a forum for positive engagement with public affairs.

In Chile an 8.8 magnitude earthquake has caused much damage in the south-central part of the country. As the quake epicenter was located just offshore large tsunami type waves were feared across the Pacific. Fortunately, the tsunami waves did not cause damage like that caused by the Indonesian tsunami of late 2005.

Up to now I have resisted accusations - mostly from the right - that the BLS may be inherently biased.

But now even I'm beginning to wonder: Blaming February's net job loss on the blizzards?