Originally Posted by herbal tee

This is the decade that should prove to be a true proving ground for the theory. We should hit rock bottom sometime before the year 2020 arrives.

Here is a "What If?" If this is to occur someday then this decade would be the time.

Britain's politicians formed an alliance recently to run the country. Two groups whose positions usually do not agree are now working together to put Britain on a different path.

Could it happen in the USA? Would this work in the USA? This article provides interesting discussion points and the comment section has some strong positions stated.

Liberals and Libertarians Need Each Other

By Bob Goodwin, an investor and medical device entrepreneur who lives in Mercer Island, Washington

Is it possible for the political groups to join forces and overcome the “corporatists currently in power?” If so, it could create a 4T seismic shift in the US governance.

Originally Posted by Silent39

Here is a "What If?" If this is to occur someday then this decade would be the time.

Britain's politicians formed an alliance recently to run the country. Two groups whose positions usually do not agree are now working together to put Britain on a different path.

Could it happen in the USA? Would this work in the USA? This article provides interesting discussion points and the comment section has some strong positions stated.

Liberals and Libertarians Need Each Other

By Bob Goodwin, an investor and medical device entrepreneur who lives in Mercer Island, Washington

Is it possible for the political groups to join forces and overcome the “corporatists currently in power?” If so, it could create a 4T seismic shift in the US governance.

Well, there is such a thing as left libertarianism. I more or less consider myself in that camp.
However, my biggest political influence is Jefferson.
The people have to have a stake in the system.
Or else the non elite talent will go elsewhere
and the system will stagnate and die.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Well, there is such a thing as left libertarianism. I more or less consider myself in that camp.
However, my biggest political influence is Jefferson.
The people have to have a stake in the system.
Or else the non elite talent will go elsewhere
and the system will stagnate and die.

So it might be possible to join together to win enough of Congressional seats to pass legislation that places corporations into appropriate roles?

Originally Posted by Silent39

So it might be possible to join together to win enough of Congressional seats to pass legislation that places corporations into appropriate roles?

In the long run, IOW 2012 or later, yes.
This year will not bring about a non corporatist majority in Congress.
There will still be too many 3T era politicos in power next year.
There is even a theoretical risk of a Republican house next year.
Given the current state of that party a separation of powers meltdown is possible.
If they o get a majority I believe that they will revert to their 1990's strategy on steroids.
Specifically, they will try to shut down the Federal Government over some budgetary issue. They are also likely to impeach Obama over some bogus, trumped up so called Constitutional issue.
Just as with Clinton the Senate will aquitt the president along party lines

But this isn't the 1990's anymore. In one sense,the sense of being in a social moment, we are closer to the 1960's now than we are the 1990's. Nothing is guaranteed to hold over the next several years. We are at what Strauss and Howe called "the great gates of History."
The America of the 2020's would be as unfamiliar to us now as the America of the 1980's would have been to an American of the late 60's.

Like all jonesers I was a child in the early awakening and grew into a young adult by the time it ended. And I'd like to think that even if I didn't know about this theory that with my love of history that I would be intuitably aware enough to know that the fast change from 1967-74 , from the summer of love until the Nixon resignation, was somehow the most relevant part of my life in understanding how quickly things will change over the next few years.

And our government structure is not able or willing to deal with rapid change. We see that today in the ineffectiveness of protecting our Gulf Coast wetlands from the consequences of corporatist greed to the inability to come to grips with the fact that we have a double quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan. There's a lot of 3T policies running on autopilot and Obama shows no sign of begin able or even more than halfway interested in cutting them off.

Almost anything is possible over the next several years.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

In the long run, IOW 2012 or later, yes.
This year will not bring about a non corporatist majority in Congress.
There will still be too many 3T era politicos in power next year.
There is even a theoretical risk of a Republican house next year.
Given the current state of that party a separation of powers meltdown is possible.
If they o get a majority I believe that they will revert to their 1990's strategy on steroids.
Specifically, they will try to shut down the Federal Government over some budgetary issue. They are also likely to impeach Obama over some bogus, trumped up so called Constitutional issue.
Just as with Clinton the Senate will aquitt the president along party lines

But this isn't the 1990's anymore. In one sense,the sense of being in a social moment, we are closer to the 1960's now than we are the 1990's. Nothing is guaranteed to hold over the next several years. We are at what Strauss and Howe called "the great gates of History."
The America of the 2020's would be as unfamiliar to us now as the America of the 1980's would have been to an American of the late 60's.

Like all jonesers I was a child in the early awakening and grew into a young adult by the time it ended. And I'd like to think that even if I didn't know about this theory that with my love of history that I would be intuitably aware enough to know that the fast change from 1967-74 , from the summer of love until the Nixon resignation, was somehow the most relevant part of my life in understanding how quickly things will change over the next few years.

And our government structure is not able or willing to deal with rapid change. We see that today in the ineffectiveness of protecting our Gulf Coast wetlands from the consequences of corporatist greed to the inability to come to grips with the fact that we have a double quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan. There's a lot of 3T policies running on autopilot and Obama shows no sign of begin able or even more than halfway interested in cutting them off.

Almost anything is possible over the next several years.

A joke Jane Seymour tells Henry VIII in the BBC mini-series: The Six Wives of Henry the VIII is:

King Louis of France once condemned a man to death, and the man pleaded to King Louis for his life to be spared, saying that he would teach his favorite horse how to talk within a year's time. When the man told his friend about his good luck of how Louis pardoned him, his friend said: But you cannot teach a horse to talk.

The man responded with: Be silent you fool, for within a year, Louis may die, or the horse may die, or I may die, or the horse may talk.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

... or the horse may talk...

Given the changes in society since 1965 my bet is on the "horse may talk."

Once every 40 years or so, we go into a social moment.
It's how time snaps generation into their new phase of life roles.
There is some comfort in that.
And it is certainly time to move past the 3T processes and outcomes.

And it shouldtake only a few years to get somewhere.
We can look at the time from 1967-74.
Or from 1929-33.
Or from 1886-93.
IOW, assuming a 2008 starting point then it should be over well before 2018. It should end end no eariler than 2012 but not later than 2016.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

In the long run, IOW 2012 or later, yes.
This year will not bring about a non corporatist majority in Congress.
There will still be too many 3T era politicos in power next year.
There is even a theoretical risk of a Republican house next year.
Given the current state of that party a separation of powers meltdown is possible.
If they o get a majority I believe that they will revert to their 1990's strategy on steroids.
Specifically, they will try to shut down the Federal Government over some budgetary issue. They are also likely to impeach Obama over some bogus, trumped up so called Constitutional issue.
Just as with Clinton the Senate will aquitt the president along party lines

But this isn't the 1990's anymore. In one sense,the sense of being in a social moment, we are closer to the 1960's now than we are the 1990's. Nothing is guaranteed to hold over the next several years. We are at what Strauss and Howe called "the great gates of History."
The America of the 2020's would be as unfamiliar to us now as the America of the 1980's would have been to an American of the late 60's.

Like all jonesers I was a child in the early awakening and grew into a young adult by the time it ended. And I'd like to think that even if I didn't know about this theory that with my love of history that I would be intuitably aware enough to know that the fast change from 1967-74 , from the summer of love until the Nixon resignation, was somehow the most relevant part of my life in understanding how quickly things will change over the next few years.

And our government structure is not able or willing to deal with rapid change. We see that today in the ineffectiveness of protecting our Gulf Coast wetlands from the consequences of corporatist greed to the inability to come to grips with the fact that we have a double quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan. There's a lot of 3T policies running on autopilot and Obama shows no sign of begin able or even more than halfway interested in cutting them off.

Almost anything is possible over the next several years.

It depends on what happens to the Republicans in 2010. Right now the disorganized Tea Party and independent rich candidates are taking a toll on the Republicans (a few Democrats too) in the polls. 2010 will lean toward the Republican increases in Congress or independents as it is traditional. Congressional Republicans will continue to discredit the Federal Government in the tradition of Bush. This will make it possible for Obama to repeat in 2012 as people will get dissatisfied with the gridlock and for lack of a better word “sabotage” on basic Federal issues and funding. Congress needs a house cleaning of senior members to accommodate the 4T world they now live in. The Senate was designed to be slow and late with its 6 year and senior membership. The House was designed as the “change agent” with 2 year and turnover. We could push for term limits on the Senate but perhaps it would be better to push for changing the rules to a simple majority 51 member vote instead of the super majority of 60 members?.

I like many late Silents earned college degrees, worked to pay college expenses, started a permanent job, got married, and introduced our first child to the world in the 60’s. Then everything changed. Social mores imploded and society was suddenly full of freedoms and open for change. It has been that way ever since. Society has explored and tested the limits of social freedoms, sexual freedoms, racial freedoms, economic and financial freedom, religious freedoms, medical science DNA, marital relationships, technology, bear arms, immigration, corporatism, and governments’ limits, Etc. Recently these changes have been challenged and a culture war evolves in a 3T period.

As we move to a 4T major incidents have flared up with roots in the unlimited freedoms of society. Some say it is time to return to the New Deal, institute 1980 regulations, reduce government size, lower taxes, increase taxes to pay debt, etc. These solutions all target various instances of largesse in individual freedoms achieved since the 1960s. People speak out of both side of their mouth. A Tea Party member will say cut government size and taxes. Then in the next breadth they say the government is not doing enough in the Gulf oil spill or Katrina incident. Do they really know what they want? Is it both worlds at no cost? Are we that spoiled as citizens?

The forum has discussed all the individual components of social change listed above individually. Yes it is a cultural war! I also believe it can be an “internal” war that will end in ballots rather than bullets. We need sharp political leadership to define/negotiate new/updated "Rules of the Road" for social and legislative frameworks that provide for the freedoms but define their outer limits. Here is an example of reestablishing the “Rules of the Road” from Sheila Blair http://tinyurl.com/2dhp5z4 The US can provide leadership by doing it internally and then opening it up for global acceptance.

You are right we do not know what will occur over the next decade. The S&H theory says it will be different and not recognizable today. However we are not finished paying the dues of change in freedoms and will see several more incidents over the next few years. Survival will be tough but we will survive. It has been part of our national culture.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Once every 40 years or so, we go into a social moment.
It's how time snaps generation into their new phase of life roles.
There is some comfort in that.
And it is certainly time to move past the 3T processes and outcomes.

And it shouldtake only a few years to get somewhere.
We can look at the time from 1967-74.
Or from 1929-33.
Or from 1886-93.
IOW, assuming a 2008 starting point then it should be over well before 2018. It should end end no eariler than 2012 but not later than 2016.

Here is my case for a social moment as an internal 4T rather than an external 4T. http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...656#post307656

It has taken many years to set the stage on all fronts but perhaps we are there now. Perhaps we have exhausted the limits of "freedoms" and now can come to some resolutions. If you are right it should be quick.

Intelligence analysts say newspaper decline is a threat to National Security

The long, slow decline of the newspaper business isn't just hurting reporters and people who like to have something to read on the subway: It's a potential threat to our national security.


That, at least, is the verdict delivered by Daniel Butler, an official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Kevin O'Connell, a former intelligence analyst for the State and Defense Departments. At a National Press Club panel devoted to open source intelligence-i.e., intelligence gathered from news reports and other unclassified outlets-- both men said the dramatic cutbacks in expensive foreign reporting by U.S. newspapers have made it harder for intelligence analysts to understand global trends.

Donald Duck in the 2010's?
Watch this before the web gods make it go away!

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Donald Duck in the 2010's?
Watch this before the web gods make it go away!

Very good! He seems to have covered his copyright butt effectively as well.

Glenn Beck Responds To Donald Duck

Oh no! Not the "New Media", sounds socialist, what with all that federal funding. LOL. Glenn Beck is looking into the "funding" of this "progressive" propaganda against him. *insert sarcasm here* It was the stimulus package money.

Remember kids, Ghandi says, "Cartoon ducks are evil propagandist tools of the socialist progressive nazi communist Obamist State who hate Glenn Beck for his sanctity!"

Those who rely on driving a car and warming their homes with heating oil should prepare to be strapped in the coming winter months because crude oil closed in on $90 per barrel the week.

And with Congress playing games with unemployment insurance we get these glad holiday tidings:

U3 Unemployment -- 9.8%
U6 Unemployment -- 17.0%

Today's 9.8% number is up from 9.6% in October, and the 17.0% number is virtually unchanged from 17.1% in September and 17.0% in October.

And soon there will be a deal to permanently blow a hole in the deficit by extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.

In foreign news the World Cup (mens soccer) tournament is supposed to be held in Russia in 2018 and Qatar in 2022. A good analysis on why Russia is a good choice for 2018 and Qatar a horrible choice for 2022 can be found here.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Those who rely on driving a car and warming their homes with heating oil should prepare to be strapped in the coming winter months because crude oil closed in on $90 per barrel the week.

And with Congress playing games with unemployment insurance we get these glad holiday tidings:

U3 Unemployment -- 9.8%
U6 Unemployment -- 17.0%

Today's 9.8% number is up from 9.6% in October, and the 17.0% number is virtually unchanged from 17.1% in September and 17.0% in October.

And to think...IF they lie to us about pointless things like body scanners holding and sending pictures, true amounts of civilian deaths in the middle east, tensions with China and Russia and Pat Tillman. Imagine what the real unemployment is. Remember they don't count people who have settled for part time jobs (like me) or people that do not collect unemployment!

The recent news makes me want to say four words, and only four words:

Foxtrot Uniform Charlie Kilo

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Debol1990

And to think...IF they lie to us about pointless things like body scanners holding and sending pictures, true amounts of civilian deaths in the middle east, tensions with China and Russia and Pat Tillman. Imagine what the real unemployment is. Remember they don't count people who have settled for part time jobs (like me) or people that do not collect unemployment!

Well, that's what the figures in U4, U5 and U6 are supposed to do.:

Originally Posted by Wikipedia

The BLS also calculates 5 alternate measures of unemployment, U1 through U6,[71] which have been charted over time[72][73]

* U1: Percentage of labour force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
* U2: Percentage of labour force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
* U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[2]
* U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
* U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
* U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).

But yeah, it's pretty grim for the unemployed around here in western South Carolina.
And, although I am employed, I've personally been scouting for work in a larger urban area in another region of the country for more or less that last two years and haven't found anything that would be worth uprooting myself for.

Happy new years everyone. :

Chronologically we are now 10% of the way through this thread.

Below is my choice for photo of the year:



Funny how the Gulf oil spill kind of got forgotten once the next episode of reality show of the day came on.
Not to get too political this early in theyear but keep in mind that Joe Barton, the congresscritter whop apoligized to BP will now be chairmen of the House Energy Commitee.

Atonement saeculum

The first American labor market numbers for the year are out and as usual they can be spun a number of ways.

The U3 is now down to 9.4%, which would be good news if it weren't for the fact that the labor participation rate is down to 64.3%.
The U6 is also down to 16.7%.
As to how this recovery looks on a chart as compared to past post WWII recessions Calculated Risk has updated its work:



Thus, the Great Recession is now 37 months long.

In Washington DC the new Congress is now in session as of yesterday. There will no doubt be plenty of bread and circuses to come. If you are in the top 2% in personal wealth, you will get the bread. Everyone else will get the circus.

In international news, Mexican border cities continue to bleed because of our culture war era drug policies. Hugo Chavez continues to erdoe the constitutional protections of the Venezulians constitution and the BRIC countries continue to do fairly well economically as the American elite continues to pretend that the policy of globalization without any real protection for labor can and must last forever.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

The first American labor market numbers for the year are out and as usual they can be spun a number of ways.

The U3 is now down to 9.4%, which would be good news if it weren't for the fact that the labor participation rate is down to 64.3%.
The U6 is also down to 16.7%.
As to how this recovery looks on a chart as compared to past post WWII recessions Calculated Risk has updated its work:



Thus, the Great Recession is now 37 months long.

In Washington DC the new Congress is now in session as of yesterday. There will no doubt be plenty of bread and circuses to come. If you are in the top 2% in personal wealth, you will get the bread. Everyone else will get the circus.

In international news, Mexican border cities continue to bleed because of our culture war era drug policies. Hugo Chavez continues to erdoe the constitutional protections of the Venezulians constitution and the BRIC countries continue to do fairly well economically as the American elite continues to pretend that the policy of globalization without any real protection for labor can and must last forever.

That is a stunning chart. I've saved it and will circulate it around work.

By the way, I'll post this on the Economic CF thread, but USDA just released SNAP (food stamp) participation figures for October -- 43.2 million Americans.

With Friday's December jobless numbers out, the overall unemployment rate for 2010 - that is to say, the average of all 12 monthly rates - was 9.6 per cent, up from 9.3 per cent in 2009. In 1982 and 1983 they were 9.7 and 9.6 respectively.

If I had to guess, I'm looking for continued slow improvement for the first two-thirds of the 2010s, faster gains in the last third, and then ...

Gallup just posted their own numbers based on their national polling. Their numbers are good because they include "underemployment," which the government doesn't measure.

In perhaps the first overt act of political violence in America that actually led to bloodshed since the Reagan shooting in 1981, a mass shooting has occurred in Tucson. There have been several deaths including Federal Judge John Roll and a 9 year old girl named Christina-Taylor Green who was born om 9-11-2001. Arizona congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, the primary target of the attack has been seroiusly wounded but is now expected to live. In some of the earliest reports on the attack, Giffords had been reported to have died.
The shooter was tackled on the scene by citizens who had come to speak with their congresswoman who was holding a "Congress on your Corner" event. Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik has announced that the shooter is 22 year old Jared Loughner . There is also an older man who is suspected of being complicit in this crime. He is reported to be between 40 and 50 years of age and is still at large.

This thread may be updated on this event as more facts come in. There is a discussion of this even currently on the Spiral of Violence thread. I am going to stop this post here as I have been away from the media for most of yesterday, hence the relative lateness of this posting, and I can add nothing further on this at this time.

North Africa is going through 4T type events. As there are other threads on this forum dealing with this and it is way too early to tell how it will all turn out, I will add nothing more on this in this post.

The official US unemployment rate (U3) is now at an even 9%. The true unemployment rate (U6) is now at 16+.1%. By the way I happened to find a great table on the U6 that goes back all the way to 2001. This is neat. :


And yes, a modern American ritual happens today. This is Super Bowl gets played later sunday. I will add the final score to this paragraph. One note on how the Super Bowl affects the American lifestyle. It is now considered to be the day on which Americans consume more food than any other day of the year-including Thanksgiving. That's a lot of beer, chips, hot dogs, pizza and you name it being crunched and munched. :


Congratulations you cheeseheads everywhere.
How's it feel to have a Super Bowl champ Kiff?


31 to 25

Originally Posted by herbal tee

The official US unemployment rate (U3) is now at an even 9%. The true unemployment rate (U6) is now at 16+.1%. By the way I happened to find a great table on the U6 that goes back all the way to 2001. This is neat. :

I agree it is neat. Thanks for posting it.

I have my cheeseheads ready (wife is from Wisconsin). Go Packers!

James50