May 9, 2012
The Tea Party is alive and well in America in May of 2012. Both Indiana and North Carolina post election results that indicate that the outcomes of at least in primary elections held in a presidential year can result in big culture war style coalitions.
In contrast both France and Greece have sent election results rebuking the German led insistence of austerity within the Eurozone.
More significantly the Tea Party Cult owns the Republican Party. How fast can Americans get alert to that?Originally Posted by herbal tee
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."
― C.S. Lewis, The Screwtape Letters
Saturday, June 2, 2012
First, the dismal numbers.
The great recession is dragging on with the U3 rising to 8.2% and the U6 back up to 14.8%.
Morning in America?
Mourning in America!
Mitt Romney has won the Republican nomination as of this week as he has secured more than the 1144 delegates needed for nomination.
In Egypt ousted president Mubarak has been sentenced to life in prison for his role in the deaths of demonstrators during the Arab spring revolution. As he is in his 80's and in reportedly poor health, he won't likely occupy a cell for very long.
And in sports the Charlotte Bobcats continue to be perhaps the most unlucky franchise in NBA history. Losers of their last 23 games in an NBA season that is statistically the worst in NBA history they still get only the second pick in the NBA June draft.
Michale Jordan's post NBA career is not congruent to the one tha the had as a player.
If it weren't for Cam Newton pro sports fans in the Carolinas would have nothing to look forward to in the foreseeable future.
Also in NC, John Edwards is free after a mistrial.
Last edited by herbal tee; 06-02-2012 at 05:23 PM.
Monday August 6, 2012
The job report for August shows the economy still struggling as the U3 is now at 8.3% and the [urlhttp://www.portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp] U6 [/url] is up to 15.0%. Yet there has been some increases in consumer spending. It is at best a mixed report.
Things are not being helped in europe where austerity remains the policy of choice despite over three years of economic performance below that of the US.
The situation in Syria continues to deteriorate.
And Mitt Romney still has a tax return problem.
September 2012 economic report
As the economy is a big factor in the coming election this posting will focus on the just released jobs numbers. There will be only two more jobs reports before the general election. The basics are that the U3 is down to 8.1 % and the U6 is down to 14.7%. Not great but slightly better than last month.
In terms of job creation 103,000 new private sector jobs were created but 7000 public sector jobs were eliminated for a net gain of 96000.
Below is a summary of job creation in August over the last ten years. Thanks to Daily Kos for these numbers.
In closing I'l mention that I've suspected that the 8 percent mark in U3 may be critical for the November election. It is at least pssible that the official number for that month may come in at about 7.9%. That would bolster the president's chances of being re-elected.
Are we better off than we were four years ago this month?
Well, four years ago this month the stock market crashed.
I think any recovery we make in the 2010s will be modest AT BEST (though realistically, I think it will be a sh*tty recovery). Our only comfort will be that we are not as bad off as Europe. The looming debt crisis and climate change's negative effects on food supplies (and consequently, food prices) will keep our "recovery" crippled. I don't think the 2010s will turn out to be as bad as the 1930s, but it will be the closest thing we've seen since then. It will be *at least* as bad as the 1970s stagflation, if not worse.
I think that this decade will be characterized as a time when we have had to do more with less. As Millennials who are going through our young adult years in such trying times, we will (like the GIs of the 1930s) simply learn to have fun and experience all of the good times of being a 20-something without extravagant budgets or lifestyles. No fancy cars or apartments, just cheap beer and simple, but fun times. As long as I'm working and can pay my bills, I won't complain. I think our (Millennials') young adult years will be characterized as a time when we had great times in spite of hard times.
It really is probably too early to tell, but I expect the 2020s to be more of the same, if not significantly worse - after all, the Crisis should peak sometime in that decade - but by the 2030s, hopefully we will be in a new High. Should be nice, I'm looking forward to it.
Of course, the spring isn't as pleasant without a harsh winter to precede it, so we simply have to look at it that way.
Last edited by Normal; 09-10-2012 at 10:18 PM.
First off, welcome to the forum:
That's pretty much what my most optimistic scenerio sounds like.
The other main possibility is that we continue in 3T culture war politics for too long and lock in a long hard 4t followed by an austere recovery.
Resource, especially oil shortages coupled with price spikes while job growth disappears.
Sounds like the entry level economy we jonesers found about the time we were old enough to drive, work and fill other young adult roles in the seventies.
When we thought about the world the adults were getting ready to hand us, well some of us played songs like this.
At least my age cohorts won't feel totally lost.
Hey that basic strategy worked for me through parts of my 20's and early 30's.
We jonesers had to deal with the reality that we occupied the post boom year entry level job market.
It was hard for even a college graduate like me to get a middle class level job. As for myself I worked as a retail clerk before ecoming one of the burned out 100 hours a week store managers.
I believe as Neil Howe does that this 4T started with the real estate bubble bust/stock market crash of 2008.It really is probably too early to tell, but I expect the 2020s to be more of the same, if not significantly worse - after all, the Crisis should peak sometime in that decade - but by the 2030s, hopefully we will be in a new High. Should be nice, I'm looking forward to it.
Of course, the spring isn't as pleasant without a harsh winter to precede it, so we simply have to look at it that way.
We're just not the same country that we were in 2007. No one is going to take on debt that can be avoided almost to the point of it being a life and death issue. Any government that tries to spark the economy with consumer debt fueled purchasing is going to be a failure.
That seems to be the bedrock reasoning behind austerity as far as I can tell.
Somehow an economy that no one has enough confedence in to risk their own capital is supposed cure itself.
Ironically if we Americans get lucky we'll avoid austerity as a policy and continue the slow leveraging of the middle class that is happening a families pay down their persona debt. I'll go out on a limb abd write that if we're stupid enough to privatize Social Security and/or Medicare the hard 4T and austere 1T I mentioned above is what I see as the likely outcome of those policy choices.
In short I think that this election and the so called debt negoations that are supposed totake place afterwards are going to matter. For better or worse the rest of 2012 is going to be, as I see it, a key time of the 4T
Last edited by herbal tee; 09-11-2012 at 12:50 AM.
911 + 11
****Crossposted on the Look what Tunisia started thread****
On today, the 11th anniversery of the 911 attack Islamists attack US embassies in Egypt and Libya.
The Arab Spring may be turning into a long hot summer.
First off, welcome to the forum
That's pretty much what my most optimistic scenerio sounds like.
The other main possibility is that we continue in 3T culture war politics for too long and lock in a long hard 4t followed by an austere recovery.
Resource, especially oil shortages coupled with price spikes while job growth disappears.
Sounds like the entry level economy we jonesers found about the time we were old enough to drive, work and fill other young adult roles in the seventies.
When we thought about the world the adults were getting ready to hand us, well some of us played songs like this.
At least my age cohorts won't feel totally lost.
Hey that basic strategy worked for me through parts of my 20's and early 30's.
We jonesers had to deal with the reality that we occupied the post boom year entry level job market.
It was hard for even a college graduate like me to get a middle class level job. As for myself I worked as a retail clerk before ecoming one of the burned out 100 hours a week store managers.
I believe as Neil Howe does that this 4T started with the real estate bubble bust/stock market crash of 2008.
We're just not the same country that we were in 2007. No one is going to take on debt that can be avoided almost to the point of it being a life and death issue. Any government that tries to spark the economy with consumer debt fueled purchasing is going to be a failure.
That seems to be the bedrock reasoning behind austerity as far as I can tell.
Somehow an economy that no one has enough confedence in to risk their own capital is supposed cure itself.
Ironically if we Americans get lucky we'll avoid austerity as a policy and continue the slow leveraging of the middle class that is happening a families pay down their persona debt. I'll go out on a limb abd write that if we're stupid enough to privatize Social Security and/or Medicare the hard 4T and austere 1T I mentioned above is what I see as the likely outcome of those policy choices.
In short I think that this election and the so called debt negoations that are supposed totake place afterwards are going to matter. For better or worse the rest of 2012 is going to be, as I see it, a key time of the 4T
Yes, we are far from being out of the woods yet. The party is just beginning. S&H always talk about how the Civil War is an example of a 4T that turned out bad (so badly, they couldn't identify a Civic generation and were forced to label the Progressives as an Adaptive generation instead). I think that is still very much a possibility; hell, given the nature of the crises we're facing, if we end up with a 1T like the one that followed the Civil War, we may actually end up lucky.
Wow, this post was before I discovered JB. Even you were part of the crowd making these kinds of comparisons to Justin Bieber!I dedicate Won't Get Fooled Again to the Arab Spring. Just listen to the lyrics, nothing more to say.
And... Justin Bieber, eat your heart out, you'll never get this good.
Still my #1 song; most likely even Pray will always fall short.
Even so, I can only think of a couple of songs that are as good as Pray, and are also as humanitarian as Pray. One of them is A Hard Rain's A Gonna Fall by Bob Dylan.
Pray, the best song of the 2010s! (anyone care to bet that anything will surpass it this decade?? I severely doubt it!!)
October 2012 economic report
HA!
Better than I expected.
It is good to see that 7.8 in the U3. However the U6 remains at 14.7 so we still have a long way to go in getting over the 2008 crash.
Just like last month I'm going to include the change from month to month for September.
Look at Septmber 2008. Tht's wht a stock market crash looks like as expressed in jobs lost for a month.
Thanks to Meteor Blades for this compilation.
And just think. Next month we get to decide if we want to go into an austerity based depression or continue to slowly move step by step away from the abyss.
Such are the option in an early 4T where regeneracy has not solidified into a march to the new concensus.
Fake Numbers?
With the election around next month there seems to be some claiming that the new data is manipulated.
Here is an analysis of why the new number are not fake.
Or, to put it another way. The addition of 114k new jobs is good but great. And the rop of .3 n the U3 falls into the same classification.
Let's try this because sometimes a chart can say a lot.
This months numbers are fairly good. But fairly good is inherently within what might be expected in an economy that is in an extended but slow recovery from a 4T sized crash.
More fun with charts:
Total non-farm payrolls since 1939
Chart-watchers might notice two things: we're right back where we were 10 or 11 years ago. How's that for a lost decade? Ominously, the chart's pattern over that time-frame looks a lot like a head and shoulders pattern headed in the down direction.
Those words, "temperate and moderate", are words either of political cowardice, or of cunning, or seduction. A thing, moderately good, is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper, is always a virtue; but moderation in principle, is a species of vice.
'82 - Once & always independent
HT's "austerity-based depression" won't begin until this time of year in 2019 - because the necons will start a Mideast war, quite possibly immediately upon Romney's inauguration, which I for one increasingly see as inevitable.
There will then be an ugly schism within the Republican Party between the teabaggers and the neocons - and reluctantly to be sure, progressives will take the latter's side, reminded by the likes of Hillary what a massive debt the progressive movement owes to the Jewish people, versus no such debt at all to the Arabs/Muslims.
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.
Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!
I think that your expecting a Rmoney term to be too much like a Bush era term. But it is easy to see why. As I see it Rmoney is hellbent on going into Iran
just as Bush was set on going into Iraq--that hasn't changed.
But what has changed is that by bringing Ryan on the ticket Rmoney has promised a budgetary wetdream for the starve the beast fetishests.
They will lock us into an another unwinnable war and use the cost of such to justify every item in a return to the guilded age style budgets.
Is there any evidence that outside of self professed libertarians that anyone on the right opposed the Iraq invasion before it turned into a quagmire?
With perhaps a few laudable exceptions the teabaggers will be the first to wave flags at the start of hotilities and these "freedom loving" geezers will be the first to advocate the suspension of the bill of rights for dissenters. When "their" side holds the whip they will behaive in a way that shows their true colors. And they are the colors of right wing authoritarians.
As for the Democrats, that's where I see a possible split oming if we "go to hell" 4T style over Iran. Many establishment Dems. will try to triangulate themselves into being seen as loyal to the war effort while the base grumbles about joining the Green party.
Last edited by herbal tee; 10-09-2012 at 10:27 AM.
I'm basing my assumptions on the 90-year economic cycle that Dr. Ravi Batra almost discovered in his two 1980s-era books; and pursuant to that cycle, the 2010s should very closely resemble the 1920s.
So far, the two decades are mirroring one another - not with absolute accuracy, but at least reasonable accuracy, in that the early 1920s and early 2010s have been very similar (with regard to unemployment, etc.), even though the origins of their respective conditions are quite different.
So that leaves 2013-2019 to be like 1923-1929 - and the most logical way to get there is for Romney to win, allowing the neocons to drag us into a Mideast war, which cannot help but produce, at least to some extent, "boom" conditions due to general mobilization (if not as in World War II, then certainly as in World War I or the Korean War). But once the war is over - and unless the neocons are foolish enough to antagonize either Russia or China (who not for nothing both have direct Muslim irredentist movements threatening them), the U.S. is at least, to use a football betting analogy, a three-touchdown favorite to win said war - there will be one beauty of a postwar reconversion depression (much worse than the one in 1919-1922 which saw unemployment go over 12% at one point, its highest climb other than during the Great Depression since at least 1890).
I'd imagine that some Democrat, of similar age to Arthur Vandenberg (Bob Casey?), will step forward with a declaration that "politics stops at the water's edge," and there will be no significant anti-war activity from at least the center-left - paving the way for the latter's return to power during the reconversion depression.
Last edited by '58 Flat; 10-11-2012 at 08:20 AM.
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.
Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!
So does this mean that you believe the 2010s to still be 3T? Because the 1920s (at least until Black Tuesday) certainly were 2T. Otherwise, I have a hard time seeing the connection.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
We had two wars in the 2000s, and there was no boom. Wars no longer create booms. There will be no world war; whatever is done (and something is likely within the next year) would be small scale. Americans would revolt against another major war at this point, and won't support a full-scale war against Iran because it has nuclear weapons. If there was another war, there would indeed be "significant anti-war activity" from the center-left (many current Obama supporters).
The 2010s mirror the 1930s very closely. The meltdown of 2008-2009 is the worst we are going to have. Our muddled and slow recovery is going to continue, whoever is elected, until a minor downturn at the end of the decade. But Obama will be re-elected.
Obama is already center-left. A candidate cannot be much more centrist than Obama, and still be nominated by Democrats. A Casey would not last more than a few months early in the race.
Israel supporters need to realize that Israel is the aggressor in the Middle East, and that Israel under Netanyahu does not deserve American support. Israelis need to start going down a peaceful path, instead of insisting on conquering land in the West Bank. If they did, then Arab and Muslim opposition to Israel would decline. That is the best course to preserve Israel as a state.
This is something I would hope they do, but I cannot for the life of me see them doing.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Without a push, I doubt they will. There is a contingent of American-Israelis who are convinced that AIPAC will guarantee full US support for anything Israel decides to do. Netanyahu backing Romney may have bent that in a pretzel. If he's reelected, we'll see if Obama let's them twist in the wind a bit.
He should.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.
Sad thing is most of the strongest pro Israel supports base their entire vote on who's better for Israel. That's the sole deciding factor for them. If these people love Israel so much, and care so much about Israel's politics than they should live in Israel and let vote for their leaders in Israel. The militant pro Israel people I know mostly voted for Romney because of his tough stance on Iran. And other middle east country's. The voted for Romney and other republicans because they both share a common hatred of Arab's and Muslims.
"The towers are gone now, reduced to bloody rubble, along with all hopes for Peace in Our Time, in the United States or any other country. Make no mistake about it: We are At War now — with somebody — and we will stay At War with that mysterious Enemy for the rest of our lives." - Hunter S Thompson
The Empire is Decadent and Depraved
Well, I believe herbaltee started this thread, so here's me continuing... an important moment of the 2010s was when Barrack Obama was reelected President of the United States in 2012. Important if for no other reason that he held the office. And as of today both Republicans and Democrats are digging their heels and looking to push us off the fiscal cliff. Updates due in January.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
That, and the fact that this is the first election in which the minority, female, and LGBT vote truly made itself heard. And much of this vote comes from the Millennials. I think that few people realized just how significant this was until this election, but the Millennial generation really is different demographically from previous generations. All American generations have some gay and minority members of course, and Generation X is fairly diverse as well, but the Millennials may end up leading America in a new saeculum in which white people are truly a minority. That's huge.
Ahh yes, I have been busy lately. Thanks for the updating.
One thing that I will say is that the so called cliff is in terms of monitary circulation more like a downward slope than a sudden cliff.
But yes, if a sustainable budget is passed before the end of January then 2013 need not be a locked in recession.
Demographically those changes are pretty much locked in. In fact, the replacement of the boomer dominant inner focused culture war coailition with the millie dominant outer focused "new way", whatever the final name ends up being, is pretty much what the cycle predicts.
Exactly. I think the new saeculum that should begin around 2030 will be in many ways defined and characterized by its plurality of racial and ethnic groups. For the first time in its history, the U.S. will not be majority white, and we are already seeing a precursor of things to come in this election. We are already getting a sneak peek at what this could mean for national politics in the years and decades to come. Part of the way that this new saeculum could be so vastly different from the current one could be the extent to which non-Hispanic whites do not play a dominant role in the country's politics or its culture, and Millennials being the extremely diverse, optimistic, and mostly tolerant bunch that we are, will be the ones leading the way in my opinion.
