Originally Posted by Normal

Exactly. I think the new saeculum that should begin around 2030 will be in many ways defined and characterized by its plurality of racial and ethnic groups. For the first time in its history, the U.S. will not be majority white, and we are already seeing a precursor of things to come in this election. We are already getting a sneak peek at what this could mean for national politics in the years and decades to come. Part of the way that this new saeculum could be so vastly different from the current one could be the extent to which non-Hispanic whites do not play a dominant role in the country's politics or its culture, and Millennials being the extremely diverse, optimistic, and mostly tolerant bunch that we are, will be the ones leading the way in my opinion.

No doubt it will be more ethnically diverse, and it will be the outer-directed portion of the cycle, but beyond that it's hard to predict there will be progress, unless people decide to leave behind the old ideology. Re-election of the House shows people are deluded that Obama needs a "check" on what he was doing in his first term.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

No doubt it will be more ethnically diverse, and it will be the outer-directed portion of the cycle, but beyond that it's hard to predict there will be progress, unless people decide to leave behind the old ideology. Re-election of the House shows people are deluded that Obama needs a "check" on what he was doing in his first term.

Again, going back to S&H's work - 2Ts and 3Ts see less government power, and more individual power. Which would explain why Reagan and his politics cast a long shadow on the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. But in a 4T (and in the 1T that comes afterward) government becomes much larger in scope, as people regain confidence (and desire) to see government do big things. At this point, America hasn't witnessed capable, powerful government in at least half a saeculum, setting the stage for an increase in much bigger government in the years to come.

So if we believe S&H's theory will hold out, we should expect that unless the Republican Party can seriously change its course and head back towards the center (which they may do out of pure necessity), Democrats will be able to maintain power throughout much of this turning, especially if economic issues continue to be at the forefront, creating a need for some New Deal type of legislation.

Even though I can be a very cynical and pessimistic person, and even though I don't think Obama's perfect by a long shot, I have to admit there's something really inspiring about him. Trust me, Millennials LOVE this president, and if he plays his cards right, he really could be for Millennials what FDR was to GIs. But only if he can continue whatever progress he has been able to make in the last 4 years.

Originally Posted by Normal

Again, going back to S&H's work - 2Ts and 3Ts see less government power, and more individual power. Which would explain why Reagan and his politics cast a long shadow on the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. But in a 4T (and in the 1T that comes afterward) government becomes much larger in scope, as people regain confidence (and desire) to see government do big things. At this point, America hasn't witnessed capable, powerful government in at least half a saeculum, setting the stage for an increase in much bigger government in the years to come.

So if we believe S&H's theory will hold out, we should expect that unless the Republican Party can seriously change its course and head back towards the center (which they may do out of pure necessity), Democrats will be able to maintain power throughout much of this turning, especially if economic issues continue to be at the forefront, creating a need for some New Deal type of legislation.

Even though I can be a very cynical and pessimistic person, and even though I don't think Obama's perfect by a long shot, I have to admit there's something really inspiring about him. Trust me, Millennials LOVE this president, and if he plays his cards right, he really could be for Millennials what FDR was to GIs. But only if he can continue whatever progress he has been able to make in the last 4 years.

That's fine; I like him too. But Millies should not get their hopes up too high for the next 4 years, or be naive. There are 3 branches of government; that is basic civics. Obama did not campaign for a House he could work with, and Millies did not vote for one. So he can't continue progress, only preserve what he has already done. According to your "only if" statement, it doesn't look like he will live up to your test. But how can he? Obama is not a dictator; he has to deal with that red "Boomer" Speaker whom you detest so much, but which your generation as well as others flatly refused to put out of office.

And we did our part in California Tuesday, putting out the major portion of the Republicans who lost their seats in the House, because our redistricting was not done by politicians. Why didn't other blue states do that? Tell me that. PA and MI for example still have a majority of GOPPER assholes. Don't just love your president. If you want progress, then do your part to get rid of the obstructionists.

And by the way, stop complaining bitterly at the wrong target.

Originally Posted by Eric the Green

No doubt it will be more ethnically diverse, and it will be the outer-directed portion of the cycle, but beyond that it's hard to predict there will be progress, unless people decide to leave behind the old ideology. Re-election of the House shows people are deluded that Obama needs a "check" on what he was doing in his first term.

The Repubs kept control of the House because of gerrymandering.

In Washington it's lame duck for the turkey day. Gobble, gobble. Quack quack.
Kinda go together don't they? . :

Originally Posted by TheModerateVoice

Nov 20, 2012 by ROBERT STEIN

Dispossession must be good for the soul. In final Senate days, Joe Lieberman adioses the Three Amigos on the McCain-Graham call for a special committee to investigate Benghazi attacks, as do other GOP colleagues.

Meanwhile, McCain himself jumps for another spotlight by urging that the President send Bill Clinton to oversee cease fire talks between Israelis and Palestinians in Gaza.

What’s really going on here? Between closing the books on Obama I and starting the overture for II, the Republican orchestra is tuning up, with future soloists piping new sounds and past performers trying to horn in for one last chorus.

As McCain and his ilk recede, the 2016 hopefuls try out their arias. Paul Ryan hopes to survive Romney discord by vocalizing in the debt ceiling talks. “He helps us toward creating a product,” says Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, who didn’t help the ticket carry his home state, “and he helps sell the product.”

Chris Christie, who embraced Obama for the Sandy cleanup, tries out his new act on Saturday Night Live, and Bobby Jindal leads the chorus for a new likable GOP. In an interview, Marco Rubio waffles about the age of the earth.

The Moderate Voice

Sometimes it helps to have someone else say it.
Thanks Robert. :

And a hearty welcome to the holiday season for you all. :

2013 we're geared for a global recession. 2014 will represent the next possible opportunity for a major change. It's the year that the bulk of the healthcare bill goes active, the projected date that the entirety of our troops will be back from the wars without ceasing, the next set of midterm elections, and when a new Fed Chairman can be instated (if memory serves, if I'm wrong or omitting anything major, feel free to add/correct/remove).

When I looked at 2007, and tried to pridict some major possible trends I said that the economy wouldn't truly begin to get back on track until 2015, which goes right in line with 2014 for being the next big changing of the guard. I also said that there might be a civil war that incites a new direction in 2015. By 2010, I saw that wasn't going to be a possibility with Republicans establishing a majority in the house (they obviously wouldn't give up overt power in favor of risking it for more). At this time, though I think a Civil War might arise in 2014-2015 if either the republicans lose the house or The Democrats fail to deliver conditions favorable to the needs of the Millennials. This, of course, would eat up any possible slack in the economy.

Even so, an exRepublican civil war would be swiftly and brutally struck down, while a Millennial revolution would be divided, difficult, long fought and disasterous.

The other possibility is a new political party rising as the Republican party dies, or a total reinvisionment of the Republican party which takes on and cripples the democrats simply by attacking the weak underbelly of the multitude of points where the GOP and the Dems agree. If it intends to survive, though it would need to Mobilize Millennials pretty exclusively and would therefore replace the Democrats as the liberal party, and would probably maintain dominance through the crisis.

The least likely scenario I see occurring is the Democrats establishing a working narrative voice and policy direction that will actually correct our weakened, strapped, and failing government and financial structure. But hey, weirder things have happened.

Either way you slice it, though, gear up and get ready to go because in less than 2 years we're going to see, for better or worse, a big shake up.

We are now depending on which bad analogy you prefer offiicially over the cliff, bluff, curb or ham sandwich.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

We are now depending on which bad analogy you prefer offiicially over the cliff, bluff, curb or ham sandwich.

Well, the good Congress pulled us back pretty quickly.

(I'm being ironic, by the way).

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Well, the good Congress pulled us back pretty quickly.

(I'm being ironic, by the way).

Of course.
And I'll admit calling the fiscal <insert noun here> a ham sandwich was an attempt at satire on my part. :

For the first time in over 600 a Pope is resigning effective Feb. 28th. There's not likely a tie in between this and the cycle, but it did happen in this decade and so deserves mention on this thread.

In America the kubuki dance over the budget continues as austerity continues to be the worst idea that the euro-American elites just can't seem to let go of. A stumbiling into a 1930's redux is still possible.

President Obama will give is state of the union speech tonight. It and the counterpoints offered afterwards may be good indicators of just how wedded to causing the little people pain our elites currently are.

In lurking about the internet I happened to find this variation of an old favorite, the State of the Union drinking game.
Not to encourage excessive alcohol ( and Lil' Smokies ) consumption but reprinted below are the rules.

Originally Posted by TheModerateVoice

by Will Durst

WHAT YOU NEED TO PLAY:

Four taxpayers of any sex: One rich white banker-type wearing a Suit. Cuff links would be nice. 1 person in a Blue work Shirt, another in a White shirt and one wearing Rags that in a former life might have been an integral part of a frantic escape through the sewers of Paris. At high tide.

The four group around a cocktail table directly in front of a television with newspapers laid on the table and floor.

One shot glass per person. Everybody brings own and places on table. Suit gets first pick for use during game. White Shirt picks next, then Blue Shirt. Suit pockets last glass as well, and Rags either rents it, borrows a replacement from kitchen or drinks out of own cupped hands.

Twenty-buck ante for White & Blue Shirt. Suit throws in a quarter while Rags can write an IOU.

Fondue pot on table with two packages of Li’l Smokies stewing in Hawaiian barbecue sauce, surrounded by 100 cocktail toothpicks. The kind with the little American flags wrapped around the top.

A large stash of canned beer. Rags gets the cheapest stuff that can be found, like Old Milwaukee Ice Dry Light; Suit gets to drink whatever import he requests; Shirts get to pick favorite domestic, but are required to pay for beer, Li’l Smokies and accouterments.

RULES OF THE GAME:

1. Whenever Barack H. Obama mentions bipartisanship or working across the aisle, everybody drinks a shot of beer.

2. Everybody drinks two shots of beer if Speaker Boehner starts to cry. An entire can if he breaks down sobbing or disappears from view.

3. If Barack H. Obama ever says “Democratic leadership,” everybody must drink a whole beer then throw empty can at television. Anybody who hits Harry Reid is exempt from drinking three more shots of beer.

4. If he tells a folksy tale with a deeper meaning about not leaving before the job is done, the last person to throw their arms in the air, fall to their knees and shout “Hallelujah!” has to drink an entire beer.

5. Whenever president mentions liberty or freedom of the proud Afghani people, stand up, salute with your right hand and drink shot of beer with left. If he talks about the liberty or freedom of the American people, stand up, salute with left hand and drink shot of beer with right. First person to mess up has to drink two more shots.

6. If president says the State of the Union is good, but could be better, first person to stop laughing is exempt from drinking one shot of beer and gets to pummel Suit with empty shot glass. No head shots.

7. If Obama mentions the word “drone” everybody immediately makes continuous droning noises. First person to run out of breath has to drink two shots of beer.

8. Every time Barack Obama mentions immigration, last person to eat two Li’l Smokies has to drink two shots of beer. Use toothpicks.

9. If Vice President Joe Biden is caught nodding off, last person to start singing “Wake Up, Little Susie” has to drink three shots of beer.

10. Whenever the president talks about his resolve and adopts a frowny look with his brow all furrowed and stuff, everybody throws Li’l Smokies at the television. The first person to hit Nancy Pelosi in the head is exempt from having to drink two shots of beer. Toothpick use optional.

11. If Barack tells heartfelt story of banker with heart of gold, Suit gets to kick everyone else once. Twice if subject is in the audience. If sitting next to a general, the number of times equal to the amount of stars.

EXTRAS:

Anybody who can identify person giving Republican Response doesn’t have to watch it.

Suit takes home cash, discarding the IOU.

Whoever comes closest to guessing number of Standing Os takes home leftover beer after Rags finishes cleaning up.

Yeah, pass those Lil' Smokies.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

For the first time in over 600 a Pope is resigning effective Feb. 28th. There's not likely a tie in between this and the cycle, but it did happen in this decade and so deserves mention on this thread.

In America the kubuki dance over the budget continues as austerity continues to be the worst idea that the euro-American elites just can't seem to let go of. A stumbiling into a 1930's redux is still possible.

President Obama will give is state of the union speech tonight. It and the counterpoints offered afterwards may be good indicators of just how wedded to causing the little people pain our elites currently are.

The most exciting possibility is for Benedict's successor to hail from such a country as Brazil - since in that case, at least the Vatican will become more even-handed about condemning greed instead of focusing exclusively on sex, sex, sex.

We could even get a new Pius XI out of this - and that would save the Catholic Church from impending irrelevancy.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

For the first time in over 600 a Pope is resigning effective Feb. 28th. There's not likely a tie in between this and the cycle, but it did happen in this decade and so deserves mention on this thread.

There had been prophecies about the next pope after John Paul II being the last, and I looked at the charts and saw 2009 as a possible date for a new reformation. Sometimes prophecies don't hit the nail on the head in every detail, yet point to something that will happen. We can see now that 2009 was the year when the "next" pope suffered an unprecedented scandal, part of the larger scandal about priests and molestation of young boys. It should cause a reformation, including the change in such policies as celibacy, but the catholic church is such a rigid and doctrinaire organization that such a reformation has not happened yet. Now instead of this pope being the last, he is the first to resign in 600 years. So the prophecy had some resonance. The question now is what further changes could be in the works.

you're talking about St Malachy's Prophesy? I thought Ratzinger is the next to last Pope. Whover follows him will be the last. UInfortunately, the front runners all appear to be as out of touch as the last 2 Popes. I can see this prophesy fullfilling itself. The more rigid & anachrostic it stays, the more people who will get disgusted & walk away. The church will wither away in both numbers & influence & become irrelevant

Originally Posted by sonrisa

you're talking about St Malachy's Prophesy? I thought Ratzinger is the next to last Pope. Whover follows him will be the last. UInfortunately, the front runners all appear to be as out of touch as the last 2 Popes. I can see this prophesy fullfilling itself. The more rigid & anachrostic it stays, the more people who will get disgusted & walk away. The church will wither away in both numbers & influence & become irrelevant

Yeah, most people have said that Benedict is the second to last:

Gloria olivæ. 111 Glory of the olive. Benedict XVI - Chose the regnal name Benedict after St Benedict of Nursia, founder of the Benedictine Order. The order's crest contains an olive branch. Since 1960, one of (currently) 20 congregations in the Benedictine Confederation has been the Olivetans (founded in 1313), whose name ultimately derives from the Mount of Olives in the New Testament. Notably, Pope Benedict XVI is personally unaffiliated with the Olivetan order.



Here's the info on the last one:

Petrus Romanus, qui paſcet oues in multis tribulationibus: quibus tranſactis ciuitas ſepticollis diruetur, & Iudex tremẽdus iudicabit populum ſuum. Finis. 112 Peter the Roman, who will nourish the sheep in many tribulations; when they are finished, the city of seven hills will be destroyed, and the dreadful judge will judge his people. The end.

Just when we thought all of this end of the world bullshit was over... Benedict has to go and restart it. Why couldn't he have resigned last year then people could've gotten it out of their system already... Well the Doomsday Channel (History Channel) is now back in business I guess.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by sonrisa

you're talking about St Malachy's Prophesy? I thought Ratzinger is the next to last Pope. Whover follows him will be the last. UInfortunately, the front runners all appear to be as out of touch as the last 2 Popes. I can see this prophesy fullfilling itself. The more rigid & anachrostic it stays, the more people who will get disgusted & walk away. The church will wither away in both numbers & influence & become irrelevant

One of the front-runners has actually expressed support for Uganda's death penalty for homosexuality.

If he gets in, he probably will be the last Pope.

Originally Posted by '58 Flat

One of the front-runners has actually expressed support for Uganda's death penalty for homosexuality.

If he gets in, he probably will be the last Pope.

Well I will say this much, the new pope seems all right with me so far. :

Three days ago, on Monday, the tragedy in Boston happened.
Below is a link that will likely be updated.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headline...more-than-100/

Today there was a deadly fertilizer plant explosion and fire in West, Texas.


Globally the continuance of austerity economic policies in a time of bust is IMHO giving the 2010's that 1930's feel. The eight decade span between matched turnings continues to be strong.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Three days ago, on Monday, the tragedy in Boston happened.
Below is a link that will likely be updated.

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headline...more-than-100/

Today there was a deadly fertilizer plant explosion and fire in West, Texas.


Globally the continuance of austerity economic policies in a time of bust is IMHO giving the 2010's that 1930's feel. The eight decade span between matched turnings continues to be strong.

If thats the case, can it be 1946 already? I sure hope this 4T is as short as the last one - if it is, we'll be done by 2024.

Originally Posted by Normal

If thats the case, can it be 1946 already? I sure hope this 4T is as short as the last one - if it is, we'll be done by 2024.

The astrological time clock says otherwise. It may not be foolproof, but it is very reliable; especially regarding crisis climaxes. Count on 2028 to be the ending year.

1929 = 2008. But 1944 will equal 2027.

Originally Posted by Normal

If thats the case, can it be 1946 already? I sure hope this 4T is as short as the last one - if it is, we'll be done by 2024.

I'm guess that 1946 is a typo and you really mean 1936?
If so, I unambiguously say...maybe. :

There is one demographic reality that will hit circa 2023-24. And that is the fact that the bulk of the boomers will then already be eligible for Social Security/Medicare under the existing laws. If we don't mess up our safety net too badly over the next few years tis wil make it easier for older workers to consider retirement which may open up more jobs for younger workers. Also, the projection for future benefit payout will improve as the projection will then focus on the smaller Xer cohorts. IOW, if we don't allow our elite to make too many stupid policy changes in this decade a better and sooner arriving 1T may be possible.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

I'm guess that 1946 is a typo and you really mean 1936?
If so, I unambiguously say...maybe. :

There is one demographic reality that will hit circa 2023-24. And that is the fact that the bulk of the boomers will then already be eligible for Social Security/Medicare under the existing laws. If we don't mess up our safety net too badly over the next few years tis wil make it easier for older workers to consider retirement which may open up more jobs for younger workers. Also, the projection for future benefit payout will improve as the projection will then focus on the smaller Xer cohorts. IOW, if we don't allow our elite to make too many stupid policy changes in this decade a better and sooner arriving 1T may be possible.

The astrological time clock AND the saecular time clock as read by Neil Howe say 2028-29 for the 1T start. I wouldn't bet against these indicators if I were you.

And events this week suggest the outlook regarding "stupid policy changes" is not bright. Obama is effectively done, and the ouster of Republicans will only be gradual. That means nothing done about climate change, which will create havoc around the world for decades to come. Inequality and debt will linger, increasing frustration among younger people, because nothing can be done about it thanks to our political paralysis-- imposed upon us by the right-wing believers, thus endangering our shredded and inadequate safety nets and our health care, and imposing still-more austerity upon us for many years to come, as they already did this year. Bombings are not over and are still reaching our shores, stimulating zenophobia. Gun nuts reign unfettered, magnifying the violence. Given all this, there will be no easy way out of our mess, so expect a full-length and dangerous 4T on that basis too. The evidence on the ground would seem to support the evidence from the cyclic clocks.

You're going to see a lot of frustrated Millies blast through a lot of barriers in the 2020's, much to the discomfiture of X.

Were the Lost happy about being shoved aside by the GI's?

Originally Posted by Bad Dog

You're going to see a lot of frustrated Millies blast through a lot of barriers in the 2020's, much to the discomfiture of X.

I think we will see that, yes.