This thought has been spinning around in my head for some time & I decided to make a thread where we could talk about the possibilities of:

Micro-Turnings

A few of us have discussed & pretty much come to the conclusion that MegaSaeculums exist, where 4 Saeculums = 1 MegaSaeculum. Could the same be true looking closer & at smaller events in history?

What I propose is that within Turnings there are mirco periods where there are 4 micro-turnings occurring within 1 Turning. Where the larger Turning would still have the general feeling of the Turning, but within that Turning there would be smaller waves of societal growth & development occurring on micro-levels that would ripple out and effect how society developed over the course of the Turning & thus the Saeculum.

An example, using a High:

HIGH - high: The society completely is crystallized and institutions are developed
HIGH - awakening: Diverging ideologies overtake society
HIGH - unraveling: The ideologies battle out for control of the period
HIGH - crisis: The ideologies threaten to tear apart what society has just created, so drastic change is put into effect.

So I would label mini-turnings with lower case letters and after thinking about them they would usually run like this (in simplified terms):

mini-high - the society crystallizes the culture that will exist over the course of this Turning

mini-awakening - the society divides into two (or more) ideologies that will develop during this period

mini-unraveling - the ideologies battle each other and decay & begin destroying the larger Turning culture

mini-crisis - the culture of the Turning can no longer be supported and a new identity that'll ferment into the next Turning's cultural identity forms & begins to take over & push through drastic societal changes

When the same mini-turning occurs within the same larger cultural Turning, that mini-turning will come to be the sole definition of the cultural Turning. So a HIGH-high is the cultural crux of the high & becomes the definition for the rest of the High. An Awakening-awakening is what people will remember the Awakening culture as well; etc.

So using the last few Turnings, I came up with this:

IMO the years/lengths don't really matter, but the societal movement through them do.

UNRAVELING-high: 1907 - 1912: Roosevelt's America (he defines it more than Taft did)
UNRAVELING-awakening: 1912 - 1917: Wilson's America
UNRAVELING-unraveling: 1917 - 1925: WWI & The Jazz Age
UNRAVELING-crisis: 1925 - 1929: Bubble/Boom Economics & The Stock Market Crash

CRISIS-high: 1929 - 1933: Hooverville
CRISIS-awakening: 1933 - 1938: First New Deal
CRISIS-unraveling: 1938 - 1941: Big Band Era & Return to Depression
CRISIS-crisis: 1941 - 1946: WWII

HIGH-high: 1946 - 1950: Truman's America
HIGH-awakening: 1950 - 1955: McCarthyism vs "Communism"/Liberalism
HIGH-unraveling: 1955 - 1959: Golden Age of Rock 'N Roll
HIGH-crisis: 1959 - 1964: Rise of Liberalism

AWAKENING-high: 1964 - 1968: The Great Society
AWAKENING-awakening: 1968 - 1972: Woodstock & Vietnam
AWAKENING-unraveling: 1972 - 1978: Watergate & Disco
AWAKENING-crisis: 1978 - 1984: Rise of Neoconservatism

UNRAVELING-high: 1984 - 1990: Morning in America
UNRAVELING-awakening: 1990 - 1998: 1990s
UNRAVELING-unraveling: 1998 - 2001: Millennium Celebration & Hip Hop Era (cut short by 9/11, IMO it should've lasted until 2003 or 2004)
UNRAVELING-crisis: 2001 - 2008: 9/11 & The Long War Period

CRISIS-high: 2008 - 2012(?): ??? <--WE ARE HERE
CRISIS-awakening: 2012(?) - 20??
CRISIS-unraveling:
CRISIS-crisis:

Therefore, the disputes over 9/11 being a Crisis or not can be settled. It was a mini-crisis and it disturbed the natural development of the Unraveling Turning culture, cutting short the UNRAVELING-unraveling. And drastic changes occurred in order to set up the Crisis society we now live in. And currently what this Crisis is about is becoming more and more crystallized with each passing day and the Crisis society culture is beginning to fully develop and become established.

So, any name suggestions for the current CRISIS-high we're in?

EDIT: A name I can now think of is the Great Recession as a temporary holder.

Also I've begun to notice that in mini-unravelings that is often the cultural crux for art, literature, & music that's developing. Often times the cultural crux acts as another catalyst in destroying the Turning culture: I.E. Rock 'N Roll destroying HIGH-Turning America; Jazz destroying UNRAVELING-Turning America, etc.

Jazz Age
Big Band Era
Golden period of Rock 'N Roll
Disco Era
Hip Hop Era

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

This thought has been spinning around in my head for some time & I decided to make a thread where we could talk about the possibilities of:

Micro-Turnings

A few of us have discussed & pretty much come to the conclusion that MegaSaeculums exist, where 4 Saeculums = 1 MegaSaeculum. Could the same be true looking closer & at smaller events in history?

What I propose is that within Turnings there are mirco periods where there are 4 micro-turnings occurring within 1 Turning. Where the larger Turning would still have the general feeling of the Turning, but within that Turning there would be smaller waves of societal growth & development occurring on micro-levels that would ripple out and effect how society developed over the course of the Turning & thus the Saeculum.

An example, using a High:

HIGH - high: The society completely is crystallized and institutions are developed
HIGH - awakening: Diverging ideologies overtake society
HIGH - unraveling: The ideologies battle out for control of the period
HIGH - crisis: The ideologies threaten to tear apart what society has just created, so drastic change is put into effect.

So I would label mini-turnings with lower case letters and after thinking about them they would usually run like this (in simplified terms):

mini-high - the society crystallizes the culture that will exist over the course of this Turning

mini-awakening - the society divides into two (or more) ideologies that will develop during this period

mini-unraveling - the ideologies battle each other and decay & begin destroying the larger Turning culture

mini-crisis - the culture of the Turning can no longer be supported and a new identity that'll ferment into the next Turning's cultural identity forms & begins to take over & push through drastic societal changes

When the same mini-turning occurs within the same larger cultural Turning, that mini-turning will come to be the sole definition of the cultural Turning. So a HIGH-high is the cultural crux of the high & becomes the definition for the rest of the High. An Awakening-awakening is what people will remember the Awakening culture as well; etc.

So using the last few Turnings, I came up with this:

IMO the years/lengths don't really matter, but the societal movement through them do.

UNRAVELING-high: 1907 - 1912: Roosevelt's America (he defines it more than Taft did)
UNRAVELING-awakening: 1912 - 1917: Wilson's America
UNRAVELING-unraveling: 1917 - 1925: WWI & The Jazz Age
UNRAVELING-crisis: 1925 - 1929: Bubble/Boom Economics & The Stock Market Crash

CRISIS-high: 1929 - 1933: Hooverville
CRISIS-awakening: 1933 - 1938: First New Deal
CRISIS-unraveling: 1938 - 1941: Return to Depression
CRISIS-crisis: 1941 - 1946: WWII

HIGH-high: 1946 - 1950: Truman's America
HIGH-awakening: 1950 - 1955: McCarthyism vs "Communism"/Liberalism
HIGH-unraveling: 1955 - 1959: Golden Age of Rock 'N Roll
HIGH-crisis: 1959 - 1964: Rise of Liberalism

AWAKENING-high: 1964 - 1968: The Great Society
AWAKENING-awakening: 1968 - 1972: The Summer of Love
AWAKENING-unraveling: 1972 - 1978: Watergate
AWAKENING-crisis: 1978 - 1984: Rise of Neoconservatism

UNRAVELING-high: 1984 - 1990: Morning in America
UNRAVELING-awakening: 1990 - 1998: 1990s
UNRAVELING-unraveling: 1998 - 2001: Millennium Celebration (cut short by 9/11, should've lasted until 2003 or 2004)
UNRAVELING-crisis: 2001 - 2008: 9/11 & The Long War Period

CRISIS-high: 2008 - 2012(?): ??? <--WE ARE HERE
CRISIS-awakening: 2012(?) - 20??
CRISIS-unraveling:
CRISIS-crisis:

Therefore, the disputes over 9/11 being a Crisis or not can be settled. It was a mini-crisis and it disturbed the natural development of the Unraveling Turning culture, cutting short the UNRAVELING-unraveling. And drastic changes occurred in order to set up the Crisis society we now live in. And currently what this Crisis is about is becoming more and more crystallized with each passing day and the Crisis society culture is beginning to fully develop and become established.

So, any name suggestions for the current CRISIS-high we're in?

~Chas'88

Chas:

In the Stock Market, we define this time as: Non-Financial Armaggedon Relief. The definition refers to the near-death experience that many Fund Managers experienced. What I REALLY like about your "Micro-Turnings" Thesis is that we currently are in a HIGH, albeit in a 4T; That makes a lot of sense to me; A "false" sense of security!

One possible criticism: The Awakening-awakening fell apart pretty quickly. The Flower Children of '67s SofL were not the Hippies of Woodstock/Altamont '69. The A-a may have been from '67-'70.

Prince

PS: Great job! I like the way your mind works; Keep it up. I wonder if the length of time of the Micro-ts would be altered as the Mega-saeculum progresses. I can try and describe this in further detail if you'd like.

Originally Posted by princeofcats67

Chas: In the Stock Market, we define this time as: Non-Financial Armaggedon Relief. The definition refers to the near-death experience that many Fund Managers experienced. What I REALLY like about your "Micro-Turnings" Thesis is that we currently are in a HIGH, albeit in a 4T. That makes a lot of sense to me. A FALSE sense of security!

Not only a false sense of security, but right now the Crisis culture that will be in place for the next 18-20 years is forming & developing. Also the true root of the problems that we'll be facing in this Crisis are slowly becoming apparent to everyone, and by the end of this Crisis-high there'll be no denying anything. All traces of Unraveling culture will be gone. It's very similar to what occurred from 1929 - 1933, and it even goes along with your market analysis. After all people were convinced from 1929 until the final plunge of 1933 that we'd rise/recover from the GD (Great Depression) in no time at all.

I don't see the GR (Great Recession) ending any time soon & I see the attitudinal & behavioral shifts it's creating as fermenting into how society will act & react for this Crisis period. Everything will be crystallized sometime around 2012 IMO. Although I will admit that the exact year at this point is really just a guess, but within the near future is most probable.

One possible criticism: The Awakening-awakening fell apart pretty quickly. The Flower Children of '67s SofL were not the Hippies of Woodstock/Altamont '69. The A-a may have been from '67-'70.

This might be due to a mislabeling/misunderstanding in my own head. Was the Summer of Love in 1967? I thought it was 1969 for some reason. If so, then I guess I'll have to relabel the A-a as Woodstock.

PS: Great job! I like the way your mind works; Keep it up. I wonder if the length of time of the Micro-ts would be altered as the Mega-saeculum progresses. I can try and describe this in further detail if you'd like. PoC67

Feel free, I'm up for and quite willing for any discussion and development of this or any other ideas. I like a good exchange and discussion of ideas, it keeps my brain mentally stimulated & it's very fun to engage in these discussions. You never know where they might lead to and end on. A good conversation/discussion (where everyone adds their say & an idea grows from it) is something I value.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

\Was the Summer of Love in 1967?
~Chas'88

The Summer of Love was in 1967.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

The Summer of Love was in 1967.

Thanks. Nothing to comment on about micro-turnings?

~Chas'88

Interesting theory. As I read your theory in a slightly different way (and just using this past turning), you would have Carter's "malaise" speech in a mini-crisis. Gordon Gecko's "Greed is good" speech setting up the new values system of the general unravelling period in the mini-high. The 90s mini-awakening had 2 fronts. First was the Republicans Contract with America, and secondly was that this was a time when our culture was switching to one that was more technologically based. The mini-unravelling coincided with the beginnings of the internet. And of course 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, the GWOT, Katrina, and the housing market collapse all happening in the mini-crisis leading up to the real deal.

Originally Posted by sugarbuzz

Interesting theory. As I read your theory in a slightly different way (and just using this past turning), you would have Carter's "malaise" speech in a mini-crisis. Gordon Gecko's "Greed is good" speech setting up the new values system of the general unravelling period in the mini-high. The 90s mini-awakening had 2 fronts. First was the Republicans Contract with America, and secondly was that this was a time when our culture was switching to one that was more technologically based. The mini-unravelling coincided with the beginnings of the internet. And of course 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, the GWOT, Katrina, and the housing market collapse all happening in the mini-crisis leading up to the real deal.

That's exactly what was going through my head.

It also explains on a small scale the growth & death of parts of the culture. And your post reminded another thought that was going on in my head, which I'll post here.

What really upsets me is that the mini-unraveling of this past turning was cut short by 9/11, but society still takes about the same amount of time to grow/transition into the Crisis society we now exist in. And I think the reason behind this is simple:

9/11 - while horrible, it happened to NYC, DC, & West PA
Afghanistan - it's Over There... Over There... We will fight... etc.
Iraq - it's Over There x2
GWOT - it's not within our own borders (I'm assuming that GWOT = Great War on Terror)
Katrina - while horrible, it happened to New Orleans

Housing Burst (causing the Great Recession) - everyone's effected; Crisis begins.

And the Housing bubble burst is symbolic, because part of the New Deal promises & one of its symbols of triumph, via the GI bill, for this past saeculum was: every American owning their own home.

When the dream/promise that was achieved from the sweat & work of the last Crisis is no longer able to occur due to how our society has degenerated, then I'd say that that's when a Crisis begins.

Terrorism wasn't really an issue of the last Crisis, and neither was Global Warming. They're concerns of this saeculum, and aren't really symbolic of the achievements of the past Crisis. The Housing market crashing is the best symbolic event to occur within the last decade that truly shows the achievements of the last Crisis are no longer viable due to how society has decayed since then.

In essence we became so distracted & worried about terrorism, global warming, and all the other issues that overtook us in this past Unraveling, that we ignored what was happening to the economy & the housing market. And now that Social Security is going into the red, it really seems as though we've just let the promises/dreams of the last Crisis really fall apart. So I'd expect as this CRISIS-high continues, more New Deal programs/dreams/promises to deteriorate, due to our neglect of them.

Sorry if I keep repeating myself, but it's a point I guess I'm trying to really ride home on.

~Chas'88

I have been lurking for some time. Read Generations back in the 90s and Fourth Turning when it came out. This post prodded me to register.

Charles, your post seems very right on to me and explains many sensations I have had through the years. I graduated from high school in 68 and am a boomer through and through although I hope I am more self aware of boomer limitations and weaknesses than some of my age peers.

I had great hopes for Obama when elected and thought we had turned into the Regeneracy. It didn't take long to fall right back into the culture wars and more unraveling. Whether the crisis beginning was the internet bubble crashing, 9/11, Katrina, or the Great Recession, it seems safe to say the regeneracy has not arrived.

One implication which you touch upon indirectly would imply that Obama is a Buchanan or Hoover figure and not Lincoln or Roosevelt. I think this also implies that when the crisis is in full swing, we may expect a small government tidal wave quite the opposite of the big government tidal wave of the 1930's. The Tea Party may be just the first rumblings.

Do you agree?

Each day more of us seem to be calling him another Hoover or Buchannon, or what others who don't know the theory say: another Carter.

However I'd say that Obama has one chance left to prove whether he's a Hoover/Buchannon figure or whether he's a Lincoln. Roosevelt is out of the question at this point in the game, however Lincoln is still a viable option.

After all, Lincoln faced the Civil War with numerous losses to the South in the beginning until Antietam where a draw was called, and then a year later Gettysburg.

Obama's equivalent to Antietam would/should happen sometime later this year, and then we'll have to wait and see what 2011 brings and if any Gettysburg parrallel pops up.

If however he doesn't win or end anything in a draw this year, but in fact looses more ground, then I'd say Hooverville here we come. So I'll be nice and give him the rest of this year to prove his worth. I might not have voted for him, but 2 years surely will be enough time for him to have prooven his mettle.

~Chas'88

I think we agree.

But you made no comment on the second part of my final paragraph. Most make the assumption that the next Lincoln/Roosevelt will deal with the crisis by increasing the reach of government. After all, that would parallel the three crises of American history (Revolution,Civil War, Depression/WW2). But what if the tidal wave that is building goes another direction - less government, less spending, possibly federal debt renegotiation or inflationary devaulation. What is the likelihood of that?

In such a world, the subliminal message from on high to the individual citizen would be "You are on your own." It seems unimaginable now, but then most crisis resolutions seem that way until they happen.

Is the Tea Party a fringe movement or wave of the future?

James50

BTW, if Katrina was the 4th turning beginning, I can remember thinking at the time watching the people waving for help from the rooftops in NO: these people are on their own.

James50

Oh yea, and Happy Birthday Charles!

James50

Originally Posted by James50

Oh yea, and Happy Birthday Charles!

James50

Thank you very much.

I was going to answer that question you had, I just ran out of time and had to get to class this morning.

I typed a reply this afternoon but by the end of it I came to a revelation that completely invalidated the original beginning of the post. So I'll get back to you on that as soon as I edit what I wrote and rewrite it.

So after I get back from Student Senate I'll get right on it.

Thanks for taking such an interest.

~Chas'88

Just to support your theory, let me add some events that a child of the 60s can never forget. I think the arc of these events support your theory. Lots of highs, unravelings, and crises all in one decade.
1.November, 1960 - Kennedy Election - I was 10 and could tell you the name of every cabinet member.
2.January 20, 1961 - Kennedy Inauguration - "We will bear any burden"
3.September 12, 1962 - Kennedy says "We choose to go to the moon"
4.August 28, 1963 - March on Washington - "I have a dream"
5.November 22, 1963 - Kennedy assassinated. (yes, I remember where I was.)
6.February 9, 1964 – Beatles appear on Ed Sullivan show
7.July 2, 1964 - Johnson signs Civil Rights Act
8.August 7, 1964 – Congress passes Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
9.Academic year 1964-65 – Free Speech Movement at Berkeley
10.February 7, 1965 – First aerial attacks on North Vietnam
11.March 7, 1965 - First March on Selma - "Bloody Sunday"
12.August 6, 1965 – Johnson signs Voting Rights Act
13.January 1, 1966 – Cigarette warning labels become mandatory
14.1966 – US has 500,000 troops in Vietnam
15.September 8, 1966 – first episode of Star Trek
16.January 14, 1967 – Timothy O’Leary - "Turn on, tune in, drop out"
17.Summer, 1967 – Haight-Ashbury; San Francisco – “Summer of love”
18.January 31, 1968 – Tet offensive
19.March 31, 1968 – Johnson announces he will not run for re-election.
20.April 4, 1968 – M.L. King assassinated (as high school senior, I walked in funeral procession in Atlanta. About 10 yards behind RFK)
21.June 5, 1968 – Robert Kennedy assassinated
22.August 28, 1968 – Police “riot” at Democrat convention in Chicago
23.July 20, 1969 – First man on the moon
24.August 15, 1969 – Woodstock begins
25.October 15, 1969 – March on Washington to end Vietnam war

Perhaps the only time in my life, I thought the system could not hold was in May, 1970 when US invaded Cambodia. The reaction on college campuses was swift and massive. I cannot imagine this today. It seemed overwhelming to me as a college student at the time.

James50

It strikes me that there is a fractal nature to history. No matter how large or small the time period you examine, the pattern is always the same.

James50

And I count the Kennedy assassination as the end of the 50s/beginning of the 60s. In other words, as the Social Moment. If you don't remember it, you're an Xer or younger. If you do, you're a Boomer or older. Call it a trigger moment.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Each day more of us seem to be calling him another Hoover or Buchannon, or what others who don't know the theory say: another Carter.

However I'd say that Obama has one chance left to prove whether he's a Hoover/Buchannon figure or whether he's a Lincoln. Roosevelt is out of the question at this point in the game, however Lincoln is still a viable option.

After all, Lincoln faced the Civil War with numerous losses to the South in the beginning until Antietam where a draw was called, and then a year later Gettysburg.

Obama's equivalent to Antietam would/should happen sometime later this year, and then we'll have to wait and see what 2011 brings and if any Gettysburg parrallel pops up.

If however he doesn't win or end anything in a draw this year, but in fact looses more ground, then I'd say Hooverville here we come. So I'll be nice and give him the rest of this year to prove his worth. I might not have voted for him, but 2 years surely will be enough time for him to have prooven his mettle.

~Chas'88

Chas: Don't forget the importance of Vicksburg to the Union(July 4th 1863). I know I'm being "wonkish" but, just saying. PoC67

Originally Posted by James50

It strikes me that there is a fractal nature to history. No matter how large or small the time period you examine, the pattern is always the same.

James50

James: That's a VERY interesting comment("fractal") you made there IMO. Are you aware of the Fibonacci Ratios? I deal with something I like to define as the "organic variable" in the study/analysis of Systems.

Originally Posted by princeofcats67

James: That's a VERY interesting comment("fractal") you made there IMO. Are you aware of the Fibonacci Ratios? I deal with something I like to define as the "organic variable" in the study/analysis of Systems.

The Fibonacci ratio I think of as having to do with distribution of events in the external physical world. The S/H theory of history has more to do with internal human psychology and our interactions within families. It rhymes but is not the same.

I went to bed last night thinking about the 60's timeline I had put together. I woke up this morning thinking that Charles' mini-turnings and large saeculae implied a pattern over multiple time periods - a fractal. You keep drilling down or moving up, and it always looks the same.

James50

Also to continue the thought of a right wing ascendancy - NYT front page article this morning: "Tea Party Movement Lights Fuse for Rebellion on Right".

Bayh's surprise retirement is also a signal.

James50

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

And I count the Kennedy assassination as the end of the 50s/beginning of the 60s. In other words, as the Social Moment. If you don't remember it, you're an Xer or younger. If you do, you're a Boomer or older. Call it a trigger moment.

Which is why I am always amazed when Obama (8/4/1961) is identified as a boomer. Joneser perhaps, but more likely an early Xer. The recent ads for the Tom Brokaw series on the boomers are tagged with a picture of Obama. Really wierd.

James50

Originally Posted by James50

The Fibonacci ratio I think of as having to do with distribution of events in the external physical world. The S/H theory of history has more to do with internal human psychology and our interactions within families. It rhymes but is not the same.

I went to bed last night thinking about the 60's timeline I had put together. I woke up this morning thinking that Charles' mini-turnings and large saeculae implied a pattern over multiple time periods - a fractal. You keep drilling down or moving up, and it always looks the same.

James50

James: Concerning the Fibonaccis, I look to them for possible Contingencies/Outcomes based on Human Sentiment; The "physical world" is the Data. In your definition of "events in the external physical world", wouldn't manifestations/ramifications of Human Action/"Living" Things be encompassed? In my experience, SYSTEMS are Systems are systems. How they manifest themselves might be unique, but the "way" they manifest themselves is similar if not identical.
I apologize for my vocabulary. The topic is sometimes even too abstract for many in my realm.
If this PM is unintelligable/too abstruse, just let it go; It's kinda inside/off-topic anyway.

James50,

I have typed this post three times over the last few days, but since I've been using a public computer I have to sign in both before and after I make the post for some odd reason & after I sign in after I write the post, it sends me back to the "reply to thread" page with a blank post box. So forgive the delay in responding to your question.

I've been sitting down and considering exactly what it is the Tea Party movement represents, especially within the confines of this theory of mine & another, which the four types of governing. These governing types are seen when looking at the overall larger MegaSaeculum work that others here on the sight started & which got me thinking. Since I've last posted it & discussed with General Mung Beans; he got me rethinking it a bit, and it has been revised a little:

Libertarian Dream - Through individualism & self-growth we will create a better society.

Libertarian Nightmare - We've grown too separate--to the point of almost tearing ourselves apart, we must find common ground between us all to have a better society.

Authoritarian Dream - Through a large & centralized government we will create a better society.

Authoritarian Nightmare - Our government has grown too large--to the point of almost enslaving us to its rule, we must permit more permutations to exist.

And here's the growth across these governing periods:

Libertarian Dream - max Libertarian
Libertarian Nightmare - falling Libertarian & rising Authoritarian
Authoritarian Dream - max Authoritarian
Authoritarian Nightmare - falling Authoritarian & rising Libertarian

Along with these four governing moods of society, there are leadership styles that come within these four periods.

Libertarian Dream: The permissive but visionary leader.
Libertarian Nightmare: The leader who'll hold us together, but won't go TOO far (i.e. won't be too authoritarian).
Authoritarian Dream: The leader who promises that if you give them/the government more power, they'll make your dreams come true.
Authoritarian Nightmare: The leader who promises that if you give them more power, they'll protect you from your worst nightmares. But this is only counter-productive/hypocritical.

Another thing, the Crisis-high seems to be the period where the dying ideology has it's last huzzah before society completely changes over to the next type of governing style. These leaders that are the last "huzzah" of the previous governing ideology I'll refer to as "Grey Antagonists".

Buchanan: "I like the noise of democracy."

Hoover: "Economic depression cannot be cured by legislative action or executive pronouncement. Economic wounds must be healed by the action of the cells of the economic body - the producers and consumers themselves."

Obama: "Yes we can"

Others here on this board have also discovered that there are pre-Grey Champions usually sometime in the changeover between the late Awakening & early Unraveling:

Jackson: "I feel in the depths of my soul that it is the highest, most sacred, and most irreversible part of my obligation to preserve the union of these states, although it may cost me my life." & "Our government is founded upon the intelligence of the people. I for one do not despair of the republic. I have great confidence in the virtue of the great majority of the people, and I cannot fear the result."

T. Roosevelt: "Order without liberty and liberty without order are equally destructive."

Reagan: "Government exists to protect us from each other. Where government has gone beyond its limits is in deciding to protect us from ourselves."

Simply put, the Authoritarian Dream that was born out of the presidency of Teddy Roosevelt has grown old and is on its last legs. What is next is the Authoritarian Nightmare world, where we are protected from our nightmares. The last time this type of governing was popular was when Divine Right Absolutist monarchs were promising to protect us from demons, witches, savages, and Satan. This time it's been (thus far, if you include Reagan as the founder of the ideology): Soviets/evil empire (proven false when its collapse came due to its own decay), terrorists, Al Qaeda, axis of evil, and China (very slightly with the "Made in China" scare; it's probably something to keep an eye on in the future).

I see that the Tea Party movement is perhaps the early stirrings of something that'll eventually evolve into a Libertarian Dream protest. Right now is the time of the Authoritarian Nightmare. I do believe that the GC will lessen the "power" of government, but it won't be anything in comparison to what'll happen later during the Libertarian Dream period; and whatever is done will be prefaced with the excuse/reason: it's being done to "protect us". I actually think that if the government is lessened as Reganites would promise, that it'll leave room for the corporations to come in and bring about a possible police state--especially if they feel their needs aren't being served. And thanks to the supreme court, the corporations now can seek to run for office and wholely influence government so much that they won't have to overthrow the goverment--just buy it out.

So I believe that lessening government due to its authoritative nature would bring about an even worse authoritative threat to this nation. Such a corporate run police state would be akin to Oliver Cromwell coming in and abolishing the monarchy in England so a "republic" could be founded, only to set up a dictatorship. It's a dark & bumpy time ahead, but I feel it'll all be worth it when the next Enlightenment gets here (which is what the next Awakening should resemble). It's always darkest before the dawn.

I'll not pretend that this post isn't chock full of assumptions and guesses at what might evolve over the course of this Crisis & the next saeculum. It also simplifies larger movements and might also take a few quotes out of context. However one thing I'm positive everyone will now agree upon:

The era of Authoritarian Dream is over, it has died a long slow death going through three presidencies: Carter - Clinton - Obama.

What's also interesting from this post, is that now we have three types of leaders to "look for" in the future:

Grey Visionary - a leader who pioneers the ideas that'll later transform the society

Grey Champion - a leader who enacts the ideas that transforms a society

Grey Antagonist - a leader who represents the dying ideologies that have gotten too old & worn out

It also means we can trace the rise & fall of political thoughts & ideologies from leader to leader:

??? - Franklin (not a leader, but he classifies as the GC for the Rev.) - Buchanan: Libertarian Dream
Jackson - Lincoln - Hoover: Libertarian Nightmare
TR - FDR - Obama: Authoritarian Dream
Reagan - ??? - ???: Authoritarian Nightmare

~Chas'88

VERY good analysis! "And the balance of the wheel goes round and round and the balance of the wheel goes round."

And for the long term trend, while I'm quoting songs, "There's a wheel turning on muddy ground, gains an inch every time it rolls around! COme on, let's make another revolution! Turn, turn, turn...."

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

VERY good analysis! "And the balance of the wheel goes round and round and the balance of the wheel goes round."

And for the long term trend, while I'm quoting songs, "There's a wheel turning on muddy ground, gains an inch every time it rolls around! COme on, let's make another revolution! Turn, turn, turn...."

Thank you very much. And here's another song to add to such a collection:

"Ezekiel saw the wheel, way up in the middle of the air. The little wheel run by Faith, and the big wheel run by the grace of God. A wheel in a wheel, way up in the middle of the air..."

~Chas'88