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Thread: Micro-Turnings - Page 8







Post#176 at 09-11-2011 10:55 PM by TeddyR [at joined Aug 2011 #posts 998]
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What a great thread! Well thought out theory. It makes a lot of sense. I think the Gray Champion is just on the horizon. We can make out his shape, but can't quite see who it is yet.







Post#177 at 09-15-2011 12:55 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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I'm starting to want to get into more detail about different micro-turnings. For right now, since it's the easiest & least debatable saeculum to focus on at the moment, I'll focus on the Great Power Saeculum. Then I'll go into the Millennial Saeculum once I've finished the Great Power Saeculum. I'll break down my big media list into one post per micro-turning & try and do one micro-turning per week. Hopefully I'll have something up for Saturday/Sunday.

Great Power Saeculum: 1868 - 1945 (77 years)

Reconstruction & Gilded Age (1868 - 1887)
Third Great Awakening (1887 - 1907)
WWI & Prohibiton (1907 - 1929)
Great Depression & WWII (1929 - 1945)

First Micro-Turning:

Reconstruction & Gilded Age: High-high: 1868 - 1872

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#178 at 09-15-2011 01:45 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
I'm starting to want to get into more detail about different micro-turnings. For right now, since it's the easiest & least debatable saeculum to focus on at the moment, I'll focus on the Great Power Saeculum. Then I'll go into the Millennial Saeculum once I've finished the Great Power Saeculum. I'll break down my big media list into one post per micro-turning & try and do one micro-turning per week. Hopefully I'll have something up for Saturday/Sunday.

Great Power Saeculum: 1868 - 1945 (77 years)

Reconstruction & Gilded Age (1868 - 1887)
Third Great Awakening (1887 - 1907)
WWI & Prohibiton (1907 - 1929)
Great Depression & WWII (1929 - 1945)

First Micro-Turning:

Reconstruction & Gilded Age: High-high: 1868 - 1872

~Chas'88
Go for it, because my interests has shift toward this and makes the civil war less of an anomaly, but a pattern.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#179 at 09-16-2011 02:35 PM by Xer H [at Chicago and Indiana joined Dec 2009 #posts 1,212]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
I'm starting to want to get into more detail about different micro-turnings. For right now, since it's the easiest & least debatable saeculum to focus on at the moment, I'll focus on the Great Power Saeculum. Then I'll go into the Millennial Saeculum once I've finished the Great Power Saeculum. I'll break down my big media list into one post per micro-turning & try and do one micro-turning per week. Hopefully I'll have something up for Saturday/Sunday.

~Chas'88
Glad you're back to do this, Chas. I've been tracking some events on my own (elsewhere) and had hoped you'd weigh back in on this thread. Overall, I think the micro-turnings theory is holding up pretty well. I would tweak a couple of dates, but we can discuss that later.







Post#180 at 09-16-2011 04:58 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by Xer H View Post
Glad you're back to do this, Chas. I've been tracking some events on my own (elsewhere) and had hoped you'd weigh back in on this thread. Overall, I think the micro-turnings theory is holding up pretty well. I would tweak a couple of dates, but we can discuss that later.
PM me about them when you have time.

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#181 at 09-16-2011 05:11 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by millennialX View Post
Go for it, because my interests has shift toward this and makes the civil war less of an anomaly, but a pattern.
If you want to know when the Civil War Crisis is according to my own thoughts:

Crisis of the Civil War Saeculum: 1850 - 1868

Crisis - High: 1850 - 1855 (The Compromise of 1850 is what triggers the Crisis, it's from that that a spiral begins that can only end in Civil War; of course the true catalyst comes from the land from the Mexican American War, however the Mexican American War was part of the Unraveling-Crisis)
Crisis - Awakening: 1855 - 1860 (Bloody Kansas - Election of Lincoln)
Crisis - Unraveling: 1860 - 1863 (Secession of Southern States, beginning of the Civil War, On to Richmond, 1st Mananas "Picnic")
Crisis - Crisis: 1863 - 1868 (Emancipation Proclamation - Election of Grant; President Johnson makes matters worse after the war)

I also begin the Civil War Saeculum in 1790, not 1794. If the federal government is confident enough to admit Kentucky and Vermont into the Union, then we've already shifted into the Recovery period IMO.

Civil War Saeculum: 1790 - 1868 (78 years)
Great Power Saeculum: 1868 - 1945 (77 years)
Millennial Saeculum: 1945 - 2022 (at the minimum 2024 or 2025 is more likely IMO)

~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-16-2011 at 05:24 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#182 at 09-17-2011 09:49 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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As I was doing some research for 1868 - 1872 I came up with some interesting research for the Civil War Crisis-Crisis

1863 - 1868 Civil War Crisis-crisis

Johnson's Reconstruction plan
1866 - Louisiana Massacre - this event made the North wonder if another war would break out after the Civil War had ended
Republicans oust Johnson & Tennessee Governor "Bloody Bill" Brownlow
The Pulaski Six & Birth of the KKK (suppressed by Brownlow in 1869)
1868 - DP Upham
1864 - 1872 - The Lowrie Gang (outlawed by Republican Governor in 1869; Lowrie disappears in 1872)
Lowrie Gang Part 2 & Lee-Peacock Feud Part 1
1867 - 1869 Lee-Peacock Feud Part 2

What becomes obvious is that until the end of 1868 these events were occurring without real ramifications (beyond Radical Republicans being voted into 2/3rds majority in both the Senate & the House in 1866). It becomes clear that from Grant forward that actions are taken to try and quell these events, although some events wouldn't peter out until 1872, but the majority of the Crisis-crisis activity is turned against once Grant comes to power with actions being taken against the activity, or the activity dying down. Another interesting marking point is the opening of the Transcontinental Railroad, which is a completion of one of Lincoln's vision for the country.

1863 - 1869 - Transcontinental Railroad


The fight of this Crisis-crisis is to determine whether the new vision of what the nation is to undergo (as redefined during the war by the Emancipation Proclamation) is to be enacted or not. In 1868 the voting American public want action, but by 1870 & 1871 they have other issues on their mind.

~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-17-2011 at 12:19 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#183 at 09-17-2011 10:34 AM by princeofcats67 [at joined Jan 2010 #posts 1,995]
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Could it be true? Chas and Xer H are back posting on the Micro-Turnings Thread?

Prince

Hail, Hail, The Gang's all Here!
I Am A Child of God/Nature/The Universe
I Think Globally and Act Individually(and possibly, voluntarily join-together with Others)
I Pray for World Peace & I Choose Less-Just Say: "NO!, Thank You."







Post#184 at 09-17-2011 10:35 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by princeofcats67 View Post
Could it be true? Chas and Xer H are back posting on the Micro-Turnings Thread?

Prince

Hail, Hail, The Gang's all Here!
With Cat-like tread.

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#185 at 09-17-2011 10:44 AM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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It's like we have left the high part of the 4T we were having here at the forum (remember how we talked about the forum being in its own 4T?).
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#186 at 09-17-2011 10:55 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Re-enactment of the Election of 1872 - shows the shifting ground between the High-high and the High-awakening

Introduction

Grant's Re-election Speech
Greeley's Election Speech - starts with the introduction stated again, then goes into Greeley's speech
Victoria Woodhull's Election Speech
Susan B. Anthony speaking about the right to vote
; Part 2 - remember that the election of 1872 is the election in which she was arrested for trying to vote.

~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-17-2011 at 12:17 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#187 at 09-17-2011 11:18 AM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
If you want to know when the Civil War Crisis is according to my own thoughts:

Crisis of the Civil War Saeculum: 1850 - 1868

Crisis - High: 1850 - 1855 (The Compromise of 1850 is what triggers the Crisis, it's from that that a spiral begins that can only end in Civil War; of course the true catalyst comes from the land from the Mexican American War, however the Mexican American War was part of the Unraveling-Crisis)
Crisis - Awakening: 1855 - 1860 (Bloody Kansas - Election of Lincoln)
Crisis - Unraveling: 1860 - 1863 (Secession of Southern States, beginning of the Civil War, On to Richmond, 1st Mananas "Picnic")
Crisis - Crisis: 1863 - 1868 (Emancipation Proclamation - Election of Grant; President Johnson makes matters worse after the war)

I also begin the Civil War Saeculum in 1790, not 1794. If the federal government is confident enough to admit Kentucky and Vermont into the Union, then we've already shifted into the Recovery period IMO.

Civil War Saeculum: 1790 - 1868 (78 years)
Great Power Saeculum: 1868 - 1945 (77 years)
Millennial Saeculum: 1945 - 2022 (at the minimum 2024 or 2025 is more likely IMO)

~Chas'88
It seems like the 4T theory focus more on the crisis unraveling in each turning. That's when things really heat up.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#188 at 09-17-2011 11:28 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by millennialX View Post
It seems like the 4T theory focus more on the crisis unraveling in each turning. That's when things really heat up.
Not only is that when things start heating up but that's when everything starts falling apart.

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#189 at 09-17-2011 11:58 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Here's a little something interesting I found when digging for info:

1850 Lincoln-Douglass Debates (Re-enactment done on CSPAN)

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#190 at 09-17-2011 12:06 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
Here's a little something interesting I found when digging for info:

1850 Lincoln-Douglass Debates (Re-enactment done on CSPAN)

~Chas'88
I didn't know re enactments like this were made. Now I'm going to be looking at it all morning, when I should be getting ready for a shoot.

Geez...thinks Chas...

Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#191 at 09-17-2011 12:20 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by millennialX View Post
I didn't know re enactments like this were made. Now I'm going to be looking at it all morning, when I should be getting ready for a shoot.

Geez...thinks Chas...

Don't feel too bad, I'm supposed to be writing a 7 page paper right now comparing the two plays The Duchess of Malfi and Philocletes.

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#192 at 09-17-2011 12:26 PM by millennialX [at Gotham City, USA joined Oct 2010 #posts 6,597]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
Don't feel too bad, I'm supposed to be writing a 7 page paper right now comparing the two plays The Duchess of Malfi and Philocletes.

~Chas'88
Nice!

Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer







Post#193 at 09-17-2011 05:14 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
With Cat-like tread.

~Chas'88
And from the wheelers and dealers in realms where we dare not penetrate without Hercules wielding a pressure hose, "We'll vary piracy with a little burglary!"
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#194 at 09-28-2011 11:45 AM by niedermen [at joined Aug 2011 #posts 23]
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How exactly do you know that we are in a Crisis-High? Things feel pretty crappy now, so how will they change when we hit the Crisis-Crisis in a few years?







Post#195 at 09-28-2011 09:49 PM by TeddyR [at joined Aug 2011 #posts 998]
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Quote Originally Posted by niedermen View Post
How exactly do you know that we are in a Crisis-High? Things feel pretty crappy now, so how will they change when we hit the Crisis-Crisis in a few years?
I'd say we are quickly moving to Crisis-Awakening. Not only are we seeing an increase in protests of various flavors, no one seems to feel very good about where we are heading. The latest Gallup shows that.

Seems to me, and please say if you think differently, the lowest we will feel about our collective selves will be at the zenith of the crisis-awakening.

So, for those of us thinking 9/11 was a premature kickoff to 4T, the high lasted unusually long until 2007/2008. That would put us in mid awakening now. Sure feels like it.

Then 2013 and the inauguration brings us into the unraveling where we will make some temporary peace with each other and muddle through for a few more years before revisiting the original awakening issues in the crisis-crisis.

Maybe?







Post#196 at 09-28-2011 10:41 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by TeddyR View Post
I'd say we are quickly moving to Crisis-Awakening. Not only are we seeing an increase in protests of various flavors, no one seems to feel very good about where we are heading. The latest Gallup shows that.

Seems to me, and please say if you think differently, the lowest we will feel about our collective selves will be at the zenith of the crisis-awakening.

So, for those of us thinking 9/11 was a premature kickoff to 4T, the high lasted unusually long until 2007/2008. That would put us in mid awakening now. Sure feels like it.

Then 2013 and the inauguration brings us into the unraveling where we will make some temporary peace with each other and muddle through for a few more years before revisiting the original awakening issues in the crisis-crisis.

Maybe?
That temporary peace may be the result of the 2012 election. If one party emerges as the clear winner they will have a chance ,as the Democrats had in 2009, to put America in the saecularlly overdue post Reagan era.

The crises-crises, as I understand it, is where the new way is tested, think the battle of Midway in 1942--and the industrial production/technology that made victory possible, Gettysburg--and union state industry and Valley Forge with most backcountry yeoman farmers backing Mr. Washington's army through the local militias.

The new way is going to have to survive a test and when one does, it will be emplaced as the new status quo for 70 to 90 years.
IOW, if we elect the "wrong" set of policies in 2013, the 4T will be longer and harder than if we "get it" in 2012.

Just my take of how the wheels within the wheels work.
Last edited by herbal tee; 09-28-2011 at 10:54 PM.







Post#197 at 09-29-2011 01:52 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by niedermen View Post
How exactly do you know that we are in a Crisis-High? Things feel pretty crappy now, so how will they change when we hit the Crisis-Crisis in a few years?
Personally I believe we've been in a Crisis-Awakening since last year. The Right got there first because Bush discredited the Republicans first.

9/11 was part of the Unraveling-crisis IMO--destroying the Unraveling culture viability & setting up the new Crisis culture.

How I'd split up the lines today:

1978 - 1984 - Awakening-crisis (Crisis of Confidence, Iran Hostage Crisis, Evil Empire, "The Bear in the Woods")
1984 - 1989 - Unraveling-high (Morning in America, Reagan & Gorbechov, Challenger Explosion, "It was George Bush who led the way")
1989 - 1995 - Unraveling-awakening (Fall of the Berlin Wall, 1992 Election, Giant Sucking Sound, Oklahoma City Bombing, Government Shutdown)
1995 - 2000 - Unraveling-unraveling (OJ Simpson Trial, 1996 Atlanta Olympics, Centennial Olympic Park Bombing, Monica Lewinsky Scandal, US Embassy Bombings, Columbine, Y2K)
2000 - 2005 - Unraveling-crisis (2000 Election, 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Freedom Fries, 2004 Election, Big Box Mart - Big Box Mart IMO shows the atrophy of the consumerism philosophy of this period quite well)
2005 - 2010 - Crisis-high (Katrina, Housing Bubble, Great Recession, TARP, Healthcare Reform, Citizen's United)
2010 - 20?? - Crisis-awakening (Tea Party, Wikileaks, Madison Protests, Arab Spring, Occupy Protests)

While I was compiling links I ran across these interesting things of note on YouTube:

A Greatest Cusper (1923 cohort) is asked by her Xer grandson to compare the Great Depression & Great Recession: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AECXaCvdN8

Another Greatest Cusper (1923 cohort) talks in detail about the comparisons: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oanuTS0O9CA ; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMCG0xUZKqA ; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VciI4X7jnpg

~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 10-03-2011 at 02:26 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#198 at 09-29-2011 01:59 AM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
The crises-crises, as I understand it, is where the new way is tested, think the battle of Midway in 1942--and the industrial production/technology that made victory possible, Gettysburg--and union state industry and Valley Forge with most backcountry yeoman farmers backing Mr. Washington's army through the local militias.
Not just in Crisis-crises, but in other micro-crises as well. It also usually includes a repudiation of everything that the Turning stood for before the micro-crisis (the 1920s micro-crisis).

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."







Post#199 at 10-03-2011 01:56 PM by Tussilago [at Gothenburg, Sweden joined Jan 2010 #posts 1,500]
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Quote Originally Posted by Chas'88 View Post
That was about the single most intelligent statement I've heard from a politician in a long time. And here we are, 19 years later...
INTP 1970 Core X







Post#200 at 10-03-2011 02:21 PM by Chas'88 [at In between Pennsylvania & Pennsyltucky joined Nov 2008 #posts 9,432]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tussilago View Post
That was about the single most intelligent statement I've heard from a politician in a long time. And here we are, 19 years later...
And the sad part of it is most Americans came out of that debate thinking of Perot as the SNL caricature. And people my age usually only remember the All That caricature. (All That being a pre-teen/teen equivalent to SNL)

I might not completely have agreed with his solutions, but Perot was addressing an issue that was very much a reality for my neck of the woods.

~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
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