What a great thread! Well thought out theory. It makes a lot of sense. I think the Gray Champion is just on the horizon. We can make out his shape, but can't quite see who it is yet.
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What a great thread! Well thought out theory. It makes a lot of sense. I think the Gray Champion is just on the horizon. We can make out his shape, but can't quite see who it is yet.
I'm starting to want to get into more detail about different micro-turnings. For right now, since it's the easiest & least debatable saeculum to focus on at the moment, I'll focus on the Great Power Saeculum. Then I'll go into the Millennial Saeculum once I've finished the Great Power Saeculum. I'll break down my big media list into one post per micro-turning & try and do one micro-turning per week. Hopefully I'll have something up for Saturday/Sunday.
Great Power Saeculum: 1868 - 1945 (77 years)
Reconstruction & Gilded Age (1868 - 1887)
Third Great Awakening (1887 - 1907)
WWI & Prohibiton (1907 - 1929)
Great Depression & WWII (1929 - 1945)
First Micro-Turning:
Reconstruction & Gilded Age: High-high: 1868 - 1872
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Go for it, because my interests has shift toward this and makes the civil war less of an anomaly, but a pattern.Originally Posted by Chas'88
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
Glad you're back to do this, Chas. I've been tracking some events on my own (elsewhere) and had hoped you'd weigh back in on this thread. Overall, I think the micro-turnings theory is holding up pretty well. I would tweak a couple of dates, but we can discuss that later.
PM me about them when you have time.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
If you want to know when the Civil War Crisis is according to my own thoughts:
Crisis of the Civil War Saeculum: 1850 - 1868
Crisis - High: 1850 - 1855 (The Compromise of 1850 is what triggers the Crisis, it's from that that a spiral begins that can only end in Civil War; of course the true catalyst comes from the land from the Mexican American War, however the Mexican American War was part of the Unraveling-Crisis)
Crisis - Awakening: 1855 - 1860 (Bloody Kansas - Election of Lincoln)
Crisis - Unraveling: 1860 - 1863 (Secession of Southern States, beginning of the Civil War, On to Richmond, 1st Mananas "Picnic")
Crisis - Crisis: 1863 - 1868 (Emancipation Proclamation - Election of Grant; President Johnson makes matters worse after the war)
I also begin the Civil War Saeculum in 1790, not 1794. If the federal government is confident enough to admit Kentucky and Vermont into the Union, then we've already shifted into the Recovery period IMO.
Civil War Saeculum: 1790 - 1868 (78 years)
Great Power Saeculum: 1868 - 1945 (77 years)
Millennial Saeculum: 1945 - 2022 (at the minimum 2024 or 2025 is more likely IMO)
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-16-2011 at 05:24 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
As I was doing some research for 1868 - 1872 I came up with some interesting research for the Civil War Crisis-Crisis
1863 - 1868 Civil War Crisis-crisis
Johnson's Reconstruction plan
1866 - Louisiana Massacre - this event made the North wonder if another war would break out after the Civil War had ended
Republicans oust Johnson & Tennessee Governor "Bloody Bill" Brownlow
The Pulaski Six & Birth of the KKK (suppressed by Brownlow in 1869)
1868 - DP Upham
1864 - 1872 - The Lowrie Gang (outlawed by Republican Governor in 1869; Lowrie disappears in 1872)
Lowrie Gang Part 2 & Lee-Peacock Feud Part 1
1867 - 1869 Lee-Peacock Feud Part 2
What becomes obvious is that until the end of 1868 these events were occurring without real ramifications (beyond Radical Republicans being voted into 2/3rds majority in both the Senate & the House in 1866). It becomes clear that from Grant forward that actions are taken to try and quell these events, although some events wouldn't peter out until 1872, but the majority of the Crisis-crisis activity is turned against once Grant comes to power with actions being taken against the activity, or the activity dying down. Another interesting marking point is the opening of the Transcontinental Railroad, which is a completion of one of Lincoln's vision for the country.
1863 - 1869 - Transcontinental Railroad
The fight of this Crisis-crisis is to determine whether the new vision of what the nation is to undergo (as redefined during the war by the Emancipation Proclamation) is to be enacted or not. In 1868 the voting American public want action, but by 1870 & 1871 they have other issues on their mind.
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-17-2011 at 12:19 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Could it be true? Chas and Xer H are back posting on the Micro-Turnings Thread?
Prince
Hail, Hail, The Gang's all Here!
I Am A Child of God/Nature/The Universe
I Think Globally and Act Individually(and possibly, voluntarily join-together with Others)
I Pray for World Peace & I Choose Less-Just Say: "NO!, Thank You."
With Cat-like tread.Could it be true? Chas and Xer H are back posting on the Micro-Turnings Thread?
Prince
Hail, Hail, The Gang's all Here!
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
It's like we have left the high part of the 4T we were having here at the forum (remember how we talked about the forum being in its own 4T?).
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
Re-enactment of the Election of 1872 - shows the shifting ground between the High-high and the High-awakening
Introduction
Grant's Re-election Speech
Greeley's Election Speech - starts with the introduction stated again, then goes into Greeley's speech
Victoria Woodhull's Election Speech
Susan B. Anthony speaking about the right to vote ; Part 2 - remember that the election of 1872 is the election in which she was arrested for trying to vote.
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 09-17-2011 at 12:17 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
It seems like the 4T theory focus more on the crisis unraveling in each turning. That's when things really heat up.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
Not only is that when things start heating up but that's when everything starts falling apart.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Here's a little something interesting I found when digging for info:
1850 Lincoln-Douglass Debates (Re-enactment done on CSPAN)
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
I didn't know re enactments like this were made. Now I'm going to be looking at it all morning, when I should be getting ready for a shoot.
Geez...thinks Chas...
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
Don't feel too bad, I'm supposed to be writing a 7 page paper right now comparing the two plays The Duchess of Malfi and Philocletes.I didn't know re enactments like this were made. Now I'm going to be looking at it all morning, when I should be getting ready for a shoot.
Geez...thinks Chas...
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Nice!
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
And from the wheelers and dealers in realms where we dare not penetrate without Hercules wielding a pressure hose, "We'll vary piracy with a little burglary!"With Cat-like tread.
~Chas'88
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."
"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.
How exactly do you know that we are in a Crisis-High? Things feel pretty crappy now, so how will they change when we hit the Crisis-Crisis in a few years?
I'd say we are quickly moving to Crisis-Awakening. Not only are we seeing an increase in protests of various flavors, no one seems to feel very good about where we are heading. The latest Gallup shows that.
Seems to me, and please say if you think differently, the lowest we will feel about our collective selves will be at the zenith of the crisis-awakening.
So, for those of us thinking 9/11 was a premature kickoff to 4T, the high lasted unusually long until 2007/2008. That would put us in mid awakening now. Sure feels like it.
Then 2013 and the inauguration brings us into the unraveling where we will make some temporary peace with each other and muddle through for a few more years before revisiting the original awakening issues in the crisis-crisis.
Maybe?
That temporary peace may be the result of the 2012 election. If one party emerges as the clear winner they will have a chance ,as the Democrats had in 2009, to put America in the saecularlly overdue post Reagan era.
The crises-crises, as I understand it, is where the new way is tested, think the battle of Midway in 1942--and the industrial production/technology that made victory possible, Gettysburg--and union state industry and Valley Forge with most backcountry yeoman farmers backing Mr. Washington's army through the local militias.
The new way is going to have to survive a test and when one does, it will be emplaced as the new status quo for 70 to 90 years.
IOW, if we elect the "wrong" set of policies in 2013, the 4T will be longer and harder than if we "get it" in 2012.
Just my take of how the wheels within the wheels work.
Last edited by herbal tee; 09-28-2011 at 10:54 PM.
Personally I believe we've been in a Crisis-Awakening since last year. The Right got there first because Bush discredited the Republicans first.
9/11 was part of the Unraveling-crisis IMO--destroying the Unraveling culture viability & setting up the new Crisis culture.
How I'd split up the lines today:
1978 - 1984 - Awakening-crisis (Crisis of Confidence, Iran Hostage Crisis, Evil Empire, "The Bear in the Woods")
1984 - 1989 - Unraveling-high (Morning in America, Reagan & Gorbechov, Challenger Explosion, "It was George Bush who led the way")
1989 - 1995 - Unraveling-awakening (Fall of the Berlin Wall, 1992 Election, Giant Sucking Sound, Oklahoma City Bombing, Government Shutdown)
1995 - 2000 - Unraveling-unraveling (OJ Simpson Trial, 1996 Atlanta Olympics, Centennial Olympic Park Bombing, Monica Lewinsky Scandal, US Embassy Bombings, Columbine, Y2K)
2000 - 2005 - Unraveling-crisis (2000 Election, 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, Freedom Fries, 2004 Election, Big Box Mart - Big Box Mart IMO shows the atrophy of the consumerism philosophy of this period quite well)
2005 - 2010 - Crisis-high (Katrina, Housing Bubble, Great Recession, TARP, Healthcare Reform, Citizen's United)
2010 - 20?? - Crisis-awakening (Tea Party, Wikileaks, Madison Protests, Arab Spring, Occupy Protests)
While I was compiling links I ran across these interesting things of note on YouTube:
A Greatest Cusper (1923 cohort) is asked by her Xer grandson to compare the Great Depression & Great Recession: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AECXaCvdN8
Another Greatest Cusper (1923 cohort) talks in detail about the comparisons: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oanuTS0O9CA ; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMCG0xUZKqA ; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VciI4X7jnpg
~Chas'88
Last edited by Chas'88; 10-03-2011 at 02:26 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Not just in Crisis-crises, but in other micro-crises as well. It also usually includes a repudiation of everything that the Turning stood for before the micro-crisis (the 1920s micro-crisis).
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
That was about the single most intelligent statement I've heard from a politician in a long time. And here we are, 19 years later...
INTP 1970 Core X
And the sad part of it is most Americans came out of that debate thinking of Perot as the SNL caricature. And people my age usually only remember the All That caricature. (All That being a pre-teen/teen equivalent to SNL)
I might not completely have agreed with his solutions, but Perot was addressing an issue that was very much a reality for my neck of the woods.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
