Having a bit of a time unpacking that statement. Regardless of it's intent, I would suggest the order of events and not the dates exactly. I would just suggest that each level does not act as an exact gear for each level, but a wave of a push starting before the higher level. Maybe I need to unpack that myself, but I have to do some shopping and have to leave 5 minutes ago so I have to wait to clean it up.Originally Posted by Chas'88
Initially, the questions I ask when reviewing any saeculur event: What did the decision makers know about the cyclical time, when did they know it, and how did they act on that knowledge? Then I can ask the question, "what was their purpose?" I take extra special notice when reviewing events before Generations was released by Strauss-Howe.
Back fromshopping. I think there is a different focus between us. I am looking more atthe saeculum and you generations. I would nowhere near doubt that the two areconnected, but not exactly. The two are chaotic system that is part of a largerchaotic system. One generation may have more members, more power, more time allottedto a generation's birth year.
I would look at saeculums and the generational cycle as loosely connected, but defiantlyconnected. What if MTV's Rock the Vote campaign in the late 80s and early 90sdid not happen? Would there be less a turn off to voting or any civic action bythose that meet the age of most Tea Partiers? It is possible that the wholeidea of voting was too much of a big turnoff because what was trying to beforced down their throats earlier in life. That is just one example of whatwould influence a generation to act/react in 4 generation types. The saeculumas opposed to generations has been what I had been focusing on since, like manymy age, I do not see myself grouped in with those older and take less stock ingenerations. But I did see the Wall fall, Soviet parades on TV, the TV movieThe Day After, and earlier the change from the Oil Crisis to the ReganRecovery.
I am not saying generations are not part of the saeculum. They very much are.But not tuned perfectly. Though I will definately check out your CUSPs, because they are very important to what I am checking out for the dates. I am seeing a progress, but I do not know if it is only THIS saeculum, all saeculums, or that I am bias by only looking for something to prove my theory.
Initially, the questions I ask when reviewing any saeculur event: What did the decision makers know about the cyclical time, when did they know it, and how did they act on that knowledge? Then I can ask the question, "what was their purpose?" I take extra special notice when reviewing events before Generations was released by Strauss-Howe.
I do notknow if the "Feel Good 70s" would be the right term. Because a GREAT part in the 60s should be included. Indeed, the textbook 60s material would be included in the micro 2T with the 2T and there is much more than just "Wall Street GoneWild" than Wall Street. As far as Outward is concerned, I need to checkthe dates of when the pre buildup in anticipation of WWII started since justabout any economist would say was when the Great Depression ended and not PearlHarbor.
Last edited by disgruntledxer; 11-26-2011 at 08:54 PM.
Initially, the questions I ask when reviewing any saeculur event: What did the decision makers know about the cyclical time, when did they know it, and how did they act on that knowledge? Then I can ask the question, "what was their purpose?" I take extra special notice when reviewing events before Generations was released by Strauss-Howe.
Saeculum Half Saeculum Turnings Micro Turnings Millennial 1946 - ? Outward 1938 - 1980 High 1946 - 1964 Infrastructure Build Inward 1980 - ? Awakening 1964 - 1984 Rock Music Unraveling 1984 - 2001 Age of Aquarius Crisis 2001 - ? Oil Crisis Reagan Recovery Alternative Music Wall Street Gone Wild Financial Crisis
Outward - Building for society from the buildup for WWII until Reagan fired the air traffic controllers.
Inward - Building for individual with consumerism.
Infrastructure Build - Building ofinfrastructure starting from the buildup for WWII that many consider part ofThe New Deal, but not exactly since much of The New Deal has been dismissed associalism used incorrectly. True recovery was with the achievement of fullemployment with macro Keynesian Economics and micro Deming Management(microeconomics)increasing productivity. The end would be vague, but likelywhen the Eisenhower Interstate System was well underway.
Rock Music - Would include the beginnings with FatsDomino, Chuck Berry, and etc. and would include The Beatles playing on EdSullivan. The ending would be when the hippies became a regular influence onsociety.
Age of Aquarius - Beginning with the hippies, but theending would be vague since the cultural change happened before the Oil Crisiswith the beginnings of industrial peak and changes in lifestyle.
Oil Crisis - Though micro crisis would really startshowing before hand, the oil crisis solidified micro crisis. Long lines at pumps,economic slowdown, last of the major infrastructure products finishing up, andthe Iran Hostage Crisis.
Reagan Recovery - Most noted when Reagan fired the airtraffic controllers giving a firm message all that the economic and socialframework will change dramatically. The Evil Empire had to fall and the coldwar climaxed with the Fall of the Wall which more accurate description would bethe appearance than communism had ended (though the Soviet Union did not falluntil the 90s). Much of Reagan's views was echoed through George H.W. Bush andhis Voodoo Economics.
Alternative Music - Though a preamble had been going on formore than a decade of the sound type, Nirvana's debut on MTV with Smells LikeTeen Spirit made not just a dramatic change in music, but also fashion, and entertainmentwith the popularizing (not introduction) of snowboarding and bungee jumping,mountain biking, and anything that would be considered an "extreme sport".It's dominance as a micro turning would be short lived with the death of KurtCobain and the move to what Alan Greenspan called "irrationalexuberance", the cultural impact would stay around for much longer givinga new linear progress of culture.
Wall Street Gone Wild - Though more than just Wall Streetwith the tech and bio medical investment boom, the irrational exuberance of thetime included the signing of NAFTA, questionable tax breaks, and a housing boomall leading to the demand of short term gains over long term progress. The same"attitudes" (which may or may not include policies depending on whohad the upper hand in the culture wars) continued way past 9-11 with creditcard debt, "calls" for more tax cuts, and using one's home for equitythat lead to a housing boom that finally went to a major bust in 2008.
Financial Crisis- Enter Tea Party and Occupy movement. The details are TBC....
Last edited by disgruntledxer; 11-26-2011 at 11:23 PM.
Initially, the questions I ask when reviewing any saeculur event: What did the decision makers know about the cyclical time, when did they know it, and how did they act on that knowledge? Then I can ask the question, "what was their purpose?" I take extra special notice when reviewing events before Generations was released by Strauss-Howe.
No Homeland moment or anything specific to the later 90s/ early 2000s?
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
disgruntledxer,
Actually, the Micro-Turnings Theory as it was originally devised was looking into the minutia within turnings & wasn't so concerned with generations as a whole--besides what they contributed to a specific micro-turning. The only reason I mentioned the whole Nomad/Civic team vs. Artist/Prophet team thing was looking to explain why these focuses were changing. If you would like to talk more about my cusp theory I'd be glad to do so.
What I'm seeing from your developing theory, is a near complete disregard for turnings in general. In which case I'd suggest that you'd look to a name that reflects your developing theory better. It's based off of half saeculums & the four parts that those halves are divided into or 1/8 of a saeculum. A name I'd suggest is Quatrain, which represents the four minute parts of your half saeculums. Or perhaps Octaves--which represents the 1/8 nature of a saeculum.
Also, I'd push your years to 1941 - 1981 for the outer world focus as Americans were still pretty isolationist until Pearl Harbor & Reagan fired the air traffic controllers in 1981 not 1980.
Take care,
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
I was thinking in terms of a "stream" if you will of turnings under each set of turnings. The stream is a multiple of 2 (base level is the saeculum of 1, next level 2, next lever is the basic turnings of 4, next level is 8 for the micro). These streams move the over turnings, but does not have a direct dependence on the higher level. Does not match its higher stream, but does have loose regard for earlier or later. They will not match up directly most of the time if ever. Their purpose is to move the higher level turning. I will change the controllers since I though he did that in his first year which I confused with the election year and not the first year.
I do not know if this is going to work without a study of saeculums that I have lack of knowledge of. I know the feeling of the world from the Iran Hostage Crisis to today, but do not remember or was not alive before then. I can get information from the DJIA from 1900 to today which would be a start of the economic side, but need to get the non quantitive information of the social side. There was a big social movement in the 20s that could be a 2mT, but I would have to bring that together. I am going to try to have the starts of this alt theory by the time I start work Dec. 5th, but it could just very well die since I might be trying too hard to make it fit.
Theoryassumptions:
1. Each level is divided by 2.
2. Each level is not required to exactly line up with its higher or lowerlevel.
3. Each level drives the higher level and is driven by the lower level.
4. Only from saeculum to the 8 turnings since any more dividing would be toohard to calculate and may be de minimums in nature.
Its a grand plan for just a hobby and there are many more people, just on this board alone, that know more than me.
Initially, the questions I ask when reviewing any saeculur event: What did the decision makers know about the cyclical time, when did they know it, and how did they act on that knowledge? Then I can ask the question, "what was their purpose?" I take extra special notice when reviewing events before Generations was released by Strauss-Howe.
I don't think its going to fit. I think I was focusing on a micro turning of a single turning and making it into the alt theory. The lengths are too different and the whole 2mT and 3mT of the Awkening are very imperfect. That MIGHT make the 4T start in 2008 with the 3T's 4mT starting 9-11. But 9-11 was so dramatic that the whole 4mT might have been skipped. It is my hope that 2001 started the 4T, but I can not make it be so just because I want it.
Initially, the questions I ask when reviewing any saeculur event: What did the decision makers know about the cyclical time, when did they know it, and how did they act on that knowledge? Then I can ask the question, "what was their purpose?" I take extra special notice when reviewing events before Generations was released by Strauss-Howe.
This paragraph is a microcosm of what is happening today with regards to Obama. We expected miraculous change in how business is done in Washington, and we have a very disgruntled public because this did not happen and the dance of denial among our leaders goes on. But we do not know at this point whether it is enough to seal his fate next year because there is so much dysfunction among the Repub candidates. We may see many casting their votes for "none of the above" as a result.
There won't be no economic upswing for Obama, alas. Besides, Thatcher and Reagan rode a mighty wave of right wing reaction to the Consciousness Revolution so they were both mightier than popularity polls and the economy would seem to indicate. Of course, through T and R it was monetarism and neoliberal voodoo economics that triumphed, even if that was only a small part of the right wing breeze that brought them to power.
INTP 1970 Core X
John Xenakis warned that the USA could go the way of Spain. Actually, America may have the option of going back to being the shining city on a hill* - for those who want to think of the country as special. In the meantime, the country could apply pragmatism to foreign policy. *A metaphor older than...a Wilsonian crusade to make the world safe for democracy.
Microturns and Carter
I like microturnings....I keep thinking they apply beautifully to Carter. Especially the Iranian hostages. Someone mentioned it earlier about their release after Reagan's inauguration was largely an instantly seen as a slap in the face to Carter probably due to the unsuccessful rescue mission. During Carter's presidency so many numbers were monitored very boldly and daily--the price of gold, the percentage of unemployed. He was like a story that you read every day.
"what we don't understand we can make mean anything" Chuck Palahniuk
Yeah, that seemed like a high didn't it? Some think this is about the time we shifted into the 3T (and by "some," I include me).
I agree. I do think that Obama is similar to Carter, although I believe that Carter seemed to be blamed less. Also I believe the fuel crisis was felt more evenly by everyone, and myself, never having experienced materialism, consumerism, etc until the 80s I didn't know what we were missing out on.
"what we don't understand we can make mean anything" Chuck Palahniuk
Chas, we have another 1980 3T believer here. You didn't get to her first.
If you look at this post, I'm starting to drift towards something different than my original position.
~Chas'88
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
Here is my analysis of the Jeffersonian High:
Micro-High: 1790-1795
Washington's presidency, denial of factionalism by the elites.
Micro-Awakening: 1795-1801
XYZ Crisis, Alien & Sedition Acts, Federalist overreach, and the Jeffersonian Revolution.
Micro-Unraveling: 1801-1806
Downsizing of Federal government, Louisiana Purchase.
Micro-Crisis: 1806-1810
Embargo Act, increasing tensions with Britain, increasing angler in New England.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.
-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism
I agree with this.
Not sure I agree with this... where's the "change" that has to be addressed here? I'm just pushing you to better define your dates. Increasing tensions sounds more micro-Unraveling to me.
Micro-Unraveling: 1801 - 1806
Downsizing of Federal government, Louisiana Purchase.
Micro-Crisis: 1806-1810
Embargo Act, increasing tensions with Britain, increasing angler in New England.
The destruction of the Federalists which occurs at the end of the War of 1812 in 1815 sounds like the setting up of a new norm to me, and by that I mean that's when the micro-High begins for the Awakening.
The Federalists began the Federal High, it only seems proper that the new status quo would be them completely out of favor & unable to return in their old incarnation. So the micro-Crisis would then end in 1815, with Madison being a Kennedy who lived. Which would fit your opinion of Transie cuspers being born from 1809 - mid 1810s. Remember, cuspers tend to be born & come of age during Micro-Crises.
~Chas'88
EDIT: This is just me, playing around with a few dates:
1790 - 1798
1798 - 1807
1807 - 1812
1812 - 1815
Last edited by Chas'88; 01-03-2012 at 03:39 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
A confusion: Are we in a Crisis- High or Crisis- Awkakening ?
Here is why I am confused: We do have protests groups- such as the Tea Party, Occupy Wall St. etc. but at the same time society still seems very Crisis-High like. The OWS movement is somewhat of a joke and not is accomplishing anything. And the Tea Party has more of say, Bommers- Atari Wave X'ers than Late Wave Xers and Millies, to have enough influence.
Another confusion: Did the Crisis- High begin in 2005 ( I know why -Hurricane Katrina) Another good reason to begin the 4T in 2005 is because the recession began in December of 2007.
But, I also like the 2008 because in 2005, we were not in a reccession at the time. Also because of the Obama election. Personally, I think 2005 is a bit too early to begin the 4T- High.
I'm starting to think that our modern society can't be compared to the past. We are just too comfortable.
Or David could be right. Say....where is he?
However, there is definitely an awareness if how bad our system is. It's just that many feel there's nothing they can do.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
Good question, but I think we're on the borderline between the Crisis-High and Crisis Awakening. These protests we've been seeing are the foreshadows of what's to come. The Crisis Awakening will most likely start very soon though. The elections and the election of the new president may or may not have something to do with it.
As for the start date, I think 2008 saw the true mood shift in society. Hurricane Katrina and the slowing down of the housing market from around 2005-2007 foreshadowed what was to come. If you break it down by micro turnings, 2005 was in the Crisis part of the Unraveling.
But it feels like my town has been in a 4T since we got hit and flooded by Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
Last edited by 92man; 01-19-2012 at 10:02 PM.
1992 Millie
I could have sworn I was answering your post, 92 man.
Born in 1981 and INFJ Gen Yer
I think who is ever going be elected in this year will be "The Grey Visonary" According to Chass 88's theory of poltical archtypes. I think the election however, will have something to do with the Crisis- Awakening, however. But the election will not effect everything, for the Crisis- Awakening though.
Yes. I agree with you 100% on this, about the mood change. I guess every local area- a town or city can go through its turning cycle, rather than getting lumped with the more "bigger and global turning"
Last edited by 95 and alive; 01-19-2012 at 10:45 PM.
The difference between a micro-Crisis; a micro-High; and a micro-Awakening:
micro-Crisis - death of the old culture, vast changes occurring on the heels of one another, a seeming sweeping momentous movement of change that everyone is caught up in--a shift where both Turning cultures exist--one dying and the other being born
micro-High - stasis, no change, all attempts to make any change to the newly born Turning culture are met unfavorably, people all accept the new Turning culture--very little question it; those that do are seen as part of the "dead" order & are considered to be "out-of-touch" jokes; we're concerned about existing in a "place"
micro-Awakening - a spark ignites the urge to make changes once again, but they aren't ever completely implemented, the unified stasis of the previous "calm period" splits into two or more factions warring for control, new ideas are created that challenge the Turning culture, but aren't seen as very great threats... there is a purity to action & intent, people actually mean what they say; Compromise is no solution--purists will have their way or no way at all
micro-Unraveling - further fragmentation of the Turning culture occurs, no longer do people feel so attached to it, but they don't see how they could possibly do anything to make things any different (after all, you could lop off the head of the snake, & the system will still survive), a large questioning of meaning--"impurity" in the larger Turning culture & in language begins to crop up as no one really believes the memes of the Turning culture anymore; Time seems to speed up quite rapidly
micro-Crisis - no one believes the meme of the Turning anymore & thus to prevent the "system" from collapsing in on itself, grand sweeping changes are implemented to "re-invent" our culture into a new Turning with a new meme in order to perpetuate society, because the only other choice is for everything to fall apart...
That's what lead me to these dates:
1978 - 1984 - Awakening-Crisis - The "Crisis of Confidence" kicks this off, the Iran hostage situation doesn't make things any better; Miracle on Ice resparks a sense of Patriotism; Reagan gets elected & begins enacting sweeping changes, Reagan's attempted assassination, Lennon's assassination, early Reagan jitters over a stagnating economy, Air Traffic Controllers Strike (it's equivalent to the 1902 Coal Miner's Strike), fear over nuclear annihilation rises to a new high--that the Republicans take advantage over, changes in parenting attitudes occur over these years, where kids go from being rather petulant & irritating at times (Kramer vs. Kramer) to rather cute & worthy of protection (think of Drew Barrymore in E.T.)--for the most part they're still rather on their own as their now "Boomer" parents are still "finding themselves" or are just unaware of the world around them (Close Encounters of the Third Kind; Poltergeist; E.T.)
1984 - 1989 - Unraveling-High - The economy turns around, we become concerned with "place" once again as it's now "Morning in America" and now America as depicted on TV becomes this rosy place to live where families safely live in exurban homes & people industriously working--it takes the early tremblings of the 1980 "Miracle on Ice" Patriotism to a new level culturally, problems with the Soviets now can be solved or negotiated--they're still the "Evil Empire", but they now have Gorbachov in there and we can come to an agreement of some kind; the economy is turning around, positive energy is abound, what is considered 1980s fashion establishes itself in 1985, and the "dark days" of worrying about everything are behind us. 1984 - Steve Jobs releases the first personal computer with a graphic interface for the user: the MacIntosh; which completely changes the face of computers and sets the tone for the rest of the Unraveling (similar to how in 1908 Henry Ford released his Model-T Ford). 1987 - Gordon Gekko establishes what's on everyone's mind: "Greed is Good". George H.W. Bush gets elected on the tail end of this micro-High"feel good" feeling of wanting to "continue" things the way they should be run. Nuclear De-armament is now the focus & no one is really worried about the SU & America going at it as much (after all George Bush, "led the way" in that arena)
1989 - 1995 - Unraveling-Awakening - The fall of the Berlin Wall changes everything; suddenly America is the lone superpower & it's time to let loose & "party"--as well as help those poor former Communist states establish some form of economic & political reform; at home the Religious Right revive themselves in the election of 1992 (after falling dormant in the late 1980s due to some scandals) which most definitely was a micro-Awakening election (as was the 1994 election which brought Newt Gingrich to power) & the action of shutting down the Government was also a very micro-Awakening thing to do--no compromising allowed. Oklahoma City explodes!
1995 - 2000 - Unraveling-Unraveling - people reacted negatively to the shutdown of the government--now they want their government to Compromise & just "work together", the true dark days of the Unraveling started popping up; the Internet became widely available through AOL mailed CDs, Computers even cheaper than they were in the 1980s & began to develop at ever increasing speeds; the real dregs of the Unraveling occur here: Monica Lewinsky, US Embassy Bombings Y2K scares began to pop up...
2000 - 2005 - Unraveling-Crisis - a bad election left no doubt in anyone's mind that things had to change, but 9/11 told them how things had to change & suddenly we were all swept up in an environment of ever changing & shifting values--the old Unraveling dying a long, prolonged & slow death--enough that the 2004 election reeked of the Unraveling & Culture Wars
2005 - 2010 - Crisis-High - after Katrina, Bush was discredited & anything he did to try and ; it was like the "engine" of change ran out of gas... there was a new norm that people were aware of in this post-9/11 world that no one--even those skeptical of it--questioned. America had become a quasi-police state--and no one dared question the role of the police-state in their lives, for it would compromise our "safety". 2008 began early tremblings of fear--an early attempt to spark the Crisis-Awakening--that didn't go anywhere as Bush & then Obama used Unraveling "solutions" to try and fix the problem (Obama pulling plays out of the Clinton playbook & continuing on with Democratic plans that had been in place since the Unraveling to get a national healthcare system in place) however his insistence on using old Unraveling tactics & ideas began upsetting people & a division amongst the populace was sparked after the passage of the Bill that completely destroyed the "stasis" we'd been existing in.
2010 - 20?? - Upset at using out of date techniques to solve the issues of today people long for something new--and they organize around pillars that seem to be opposing--without any room for compromise. Compromise is a dirty word--from Tea Partiers to Occupiers--their methods & tactics have to be done their way in order for them to be satisfied (Occupiers insisting on wide-scale vision of "pure" Democracy--while Tea Partiers insist on a wide-scale vision of "pure" Capitalism).
~Chas'88
P.S. Will edit with links to demonstrate what I'm talking about.
Last edited by Chas'88; 01-19-2012 at 11:49 PM.
"There have always been people who say: "The war will be over someday." I say there's no guarantee the war will ever be over. Naturally a brief intermission is conceivable. Maybe the war needs a breather, a war can even break its neck, so to speak. But the kings and emperors, not to mention the pope, will always come to its help in adversity. ON the whole, I'd say this war has very little to worry about, it'll live to a ripe old age."
