Originally Posted by Tussilago

Extending it to include the Awakening and into the 4T, it might fall into place something like this:

High micro-Crisis: 1959-1963 (4 years)
Awakening micro-High: 1964-1966 (2 years)
Awakening micro-Awakening: 1967-1971 (4 years)
Awakening micro-Unraveling: 1972-1976 (4 years)

Awakening micro-Crisis: 1977-1980 (3 years)
Unraveling micro-High: 1981-1986 (5 years)
Unraveling micro-Awakening: 1987-1993 (6 years)
Unraveling micro-Unraveling: 1994-2000 (6 years)

Unraveling micro-Crisis: 2001-2007 (6 years)
Crisis micro-High: 2008-2011 (?) (3 years)

One of the problems I have with the above dates is that I'd include Lennon's assassination & Reagan's break up of the Air Traffic Controllers as part of the Awakening micro-Crisis. So if you're going to argue the above dates, please--at the very least--go to 1981 when Reagan actually took office.

The only other thing that really bothers me is the Awakening-High being only 2 years long. I've found one micro-turning as short as 3 years long, but never 2.

The other thing is extending the onset of the Crisis. I used to be in the 2008 crowd, but considering that cuspers come of age during the last years of the micro-Unraveling & the micro-Crises in general, that means Homelanders will start coming of age (turn 18) in 7 - 9 years.

It also discounts the clearly micro-Awakening mood we've been in as a country since the passage of the Obama's Healthcare bill, that's only continued to increase with talks of shutting down the government, protests occurring across the country, attempted assassinations, and a general questioning of the foundation of what the Unraveling micro-Crisis has forged for us.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Tussilago

Extending it to include the Awakening and into the 4T, it might fall into place something like this:

High micro-Crisis: 1959-1963
Awakening micro-High: 1964-1966
Awakening micro-Awakening: 1967-1971
Awakening micro-Unraveling: 1972-1976

Awakening micro-Crisis: 1977-1980
Unraveling micro-High: 1981-1986
Unraveling micro-Awakening: 1987-1993
Unraveling micro-Unraveling: 1994-2000

Unraveling micro-Crisis: 2001-2007
Crisis micro-High: 2008-2011 (?)

Taking out dates and focusing on events and mood which the mood depends on where and who to determin when it is felt by a given person:
2Tm4T: Iran, oil crisis, and ending at the firing of the air traffic controllers.
3Tm1T: Hippies turn yuppies, "The Big 80s", morning in America, change to investments, until The Fall of The Wall.
3Tm2T: Dramatic changes in music, fassion, and entertainment. The growning McMansions in enjoying what has been accomplished.
3Tm3T: Wall Street Gone wild. Kurt Kobain dies and MTV stops showing music leading the first of the so-called reality TV. Enter SUVs to replace mini vans and choosing SUVs as a choice over cars.
3Tm4T: Impeachment, Columbine, election crisis, and raw material prices bottom as demand starts to outweigh supply.
4Tm1T: 911, anthrax, war, second war, small military interventions, growing fear. There is a child molester behind every tree.
4Tm2T: Housing crash and Wall Street Crash cause vocal descent from the new Tea Party. Fear start to turn to vocal desent over war, airport security, and fiscal policy. Music starts to have more of an upbeat and dance sound like The Black Eyed Peas and songs like "The Internet Killed the Video Star", Occupy Wall Street. Either 2mT has ended with the "spread" of the Occupy movement stopped and it reduced to The West Coast or the 2mT has more to go with events like Occupy Oakland taking City Hall for a time.

Tuss,

Another thing, Odin & I have been discussing "pivot points" which occur between a micro-Awakening & a micro-Unraveling, which in general occur between a range of 17 - 22 years:

1T Pivot: Embargo Act of 1807
2T Pivot: Election of 1824 (17 years difference)
3T Pivot: Tariff of 1842 (18 years difference)
4T Pivot: Election of 1860 (18 years difference)

1T Pivot: End of Reconstruction in 1877 (17 years difference)
2T Pivot: 1896 Republican Realignment (19 years difference)
3T Pivot: US Involvement in WWI in 1917 (21 years difference)
4T Pivot: Depression of 1937 (20 years difference)

1T Pivot: Murrow attacks McCarthyism & Rise of Rock 'n' Roll in 1954 (17 years difference)
2T Pivot: Watergate in 1973 (19 years difference)
3T Pivot: Oklahoma City Bombing & Federal Government Shutdown of 1995 (22 years difference)
4T Pivot: TBD could occur anywhere between: 2012 - 2017 (17 - 22 years being the possible range); My bet? If not this year (with the election of a Republican) then it'll be in 2014 when Obamacare goes into effect and people realize what it's policies actually are.

Another thing Odin pointed out:

1T Pivot: Nomads fade, Artists rise
2T Pivot: Civics fade, Prophets rise
3T Pivot: Artists fade, Nomads rise
4T Pivot: Prophets fade, Civics rise

Rise = turn from "those kids" into a more "adult" perspective, at least for the First Wave of those generations. And if you notice, the 1937 pivot of the last crisis coincides with a rise in birth years that you like to point to being the beginning of the Baby Boomers; it's also when first-wave Civics began settling down & having kids.

And yet another thing:

Think in terms of world outlook:

4T Pivot to 1T Pivot - Rise of Positivism/Fall of Negativism
1T Pivot to 2T Pivot - Height of Positivism/Depth of Negativism
2T Pivot to 3T Pivot - Fall of Positivism/Rise of Negativism
3T Pivot to 4T Pivot - Depth of Positivism/Height of Negativism

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

One of the problems I have with the above dates is that I'd include Lennon's assassination & Reagan's break up of the Air Traffic Controllers as part of the Awakening micro-Crisis. So if you're going to argue the above dates, please--at the very least--go to 1981 when Reagan actually took office.

I wouldn't include the air traffic controllers since I at best look upon such events as a Zeitgeist rearguard action. Britain for example had their coal miner's strike of 1984-85, deep in the middle of the 80's Unraveling. In the bigger scheme of things, like an international Turning perspective etc, it matters little. The world had passed the crest and a feeling of elation spread with the sense of a new era from the turn of the 80's onwards, even if Reagan may not have been elected just yet. The employees hurt in the sacking of the air traffic controllers in 1981 tell the tale of 3T economics, not the demise of Awakening fervor, which by then was but a memory. Reagan's stern ultimatum to the air traffic controllers are signs of the 3T now in force. Back in the Awakening, similar strikes had been dealt with by much less determination. Besides, actual class struggle, which can happen at any time, and seasonal bouts of generational leftism is not the same thing.
The murder of Lennon has been discussed before. As I recall, the feeling/reaction in late 1980 was on the lines of: "Wow, there goes that revered monument from an ancient and long bygone era! And all the 68ers are mourning. Well, that figures!" I'd like to recall others remembering something similar. In other words, it was not an event that set off the shift in Turnings. On the contrary, it took place after that shift had been completed or maybe rather in the final stages of such a Turning shift.

The only other thing that really bothers me is the Awakening-High being only 2 years long. I've found one micro-turning as short as 3 years long, but never 2.

I agree. Blame it on my mania for assigning whole years to the breakdown. I don't actually really like that myself. I might just as well have written 1963-1967.

The other thing is extending the onset of the Crisis. I used to be in the 2008 crowd, but considering that cuspers come of age during the last years of the micro-Unraveling & the micro-Crises in general, that means Homelanders will start coming of age (turn 18) in 7 - 9 years.

You left the 2008 crowd? Well, that was news! Personally, I don't find the Homelander cusper syndrome as so much of a problem. The Turnings have evidently been thrown out of whack lately, being much longer than they used to. After a long lasting 3T, the 4T this time around will evidently be extremely drawn out. Consider the resource crisis looming and that it's 2012 already and globally we haven't even begun to sort our problems out. Most politicians aren't even aware they exist other than in the past tense and are in fact still eagerly awaiting "the recovery". Maybe this year they'll realize it will never turn up. This remarkable slowing down of history that we are experiencing will naturally have its effect on generations as well. Back in say the 30's, causuality and the sequence of events simply proceeded at a much faster pace.

It also discounts the clearly micro-Awakening mood we've been in as a country since the passage of the Obama's Healthcare bill, that's only continued to increase with talks of shutting down the government, protests occurring across the country, attempted assassinations, and a general questioning of the foundation of what the Unraveling micro-Crisis has forged for us.

~Chas'88

Hmm, but did you not have similar things occurring all through the 00's? Iraq and 9/11 protests camping on The Mall and whatnot? Apart from maybe the size, I don't really see what's new here. I don't even see why the Occupy movement necessarily couldn't be just another flash in the pan. Couldn't these phenomena simply be naturally occurring instances related to a Crisis micro-High, considered that the Crisis micro-Awakening might get much, much worse?

Using the archetypal definitions from Northrop Frye, I am re-examining Micro-Turning Dates:

Comedy: Spring: Anagnorisis (Recognition) - discovery of how things are
Romance: Summer: Agon (Conflict) - two sides to an argument
Tragedy: Autumn: Pathos (Catastrophe) - an emotional appeal
Irony & Satire: Winter: Sparagmos (Dismemberment) - tearing apart

I'll be looking for societal examples of the above and how it's used in society, keeping mind I'm looking for...

1T

Anagnorisis-anagnorisis
Anagnorisis-agon
Anagnorisis-pathos
Anagnorisis-sparagmos

2T

Agon-anagnorisis
Agon-agon
Agon-pathos
Agon-sparagmos

3T

Pathos-anagnorisis
Pathos-agon
Pathos-pathos
Pathos-sparagmos

4T
Sparagmos-anagnorisis
Sparagmos-agon
Sparagmos-pathos
Sparagmos-sparagmos

~Chas'88

Found this post expressing what I thought of as a micro-crisis:

Originally Posted by Tom'69

Each turning has a precursor event that foreshadows the next turning and is the official "beginning of the end" of the current turning. It marks the beginning of a transition that takes a few years to be fully realized.

I think that 2001 was like 1981 or 1961. Reagan taking office, John Lennon's death (Dec '80), MTV coming on line, the space shuttle program beginning, the IBM PC becoming available, etc in 1981 set up the 3rd Turning, even though it would take another 3-5 years for the culture to shift completely. The Kennedy/Camelot administration in 1961 set the tone for the 2nd Turning, making possible the psychological damage suffered by Kennedy's assasination in '63.

So 9/11 was a 3T occurence that did not throw us into the 4T, but it signaled that it was the beginning of the shift towards the 4T. It took a few more years to fully get there. 9/11/2001-2004/2005(?) were clearly not true 4T years. My feeling is that the financial collapse of 2008 was the moment when we knew there was no going back. Time will make it more clear as to what is identified as the acutal 4T catalyst.

~Chas'88

Above is a good argument for the catalyst of the micro-Crisis for the Unraveling. The changes 9/11 allowed Shrub to make have set up all the problems we've had thus far in this Turning, and also set up the governmental environment that is "concerned" with security to the nth degree, but only so in ceremonial terms which creates inefficiencies when dealing with actual emergencies like Katrina.

When Shrub lost his "influence" was after Katrina in 2005, images of the leader of the "Free World" walking through the ruins of New Orleans was quite damaging to him, and I've yet to find those images again since their broadcast (probably due to the MSM realizing how much damage that did to the status quo)--which was a pivotal moment in that it brought back the theme that Government can't solve all our problems again to the forefront--which IMO is the larger theme for this Turning which is a completely different turn away from the last saeculum's realization where people turned to the Government to solve all their problems for them. 2008 was confirmation that Corporations and Big Banks aren't going to save us this time, like they did last time. Which is why when Obama and Bush "saved" the Corps. and Banks there wasn't a "happy-go-lucky" "everything's fixed" response--there was the grumbling which eventually turned into the Tea Party and OWS (equivalent of last Saeculum's Bonus Army) which wants to do away with the powerful Government & powerful Big Business.

Prior to 2005 the belief in Government and Business to save the world was intact. After 2005, Government was no longer seen as a credible way to solve our problems--it was pretty clear that we were "on our own"; but we could rest assure that we still had Business to solve our problems... that is until 2008 when Business went belly up. And from that you could call 2008 a confirmation of the Turning mood, which only accelerated already existing ideas. Government was inefficient and corrupt, but now so was Big Business! And the Government now is even worse because it covered the inefficent asses of Big Business--proving they're in cahoots together!

This Crisis will end with a weakened Government--for sure. But whether or not we end up with a weakened Big Business side is yet to be seen IMO and is where the real battle of this Crisis will entail. This form of mixed Socialist-Capitalist economy can't last for forever and the two sides thus far seem to be advocating different things, one wants to take us back to a purely Capitalist economy we haven't seen since the 19th Century ended, the other is waffling around about whether to go along with pure Capitalism or to go head long into an even larger Socialist-Capitalist merged economy. The Democrats won't be able to argue for a purely Socialist economy--not while there are Generations with living memories of the Cold War still living. So that's where we stand, and why it looks likely that no matter what the Democrats do, the Republicans are going to gain from it, because thanks to the Cold War, the Democrats have cut themselves off from what otherwise might be their choice.

But one thing is clear--government is going to end up much weaker by the end of this Crisis--because that's one conclusion from 2005 that no one is questioning, not the far right (Tea Party) or the far left (who look to living in a highly localized Green environment).

Either way, the days of the American Globalist Empire are numbered--this is especially true if Europe breaks up and returns to their original currencies.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Above is a good argument for the catalyst of the micro-Crisis for the Unraveling. The changes 9/11 allowed Shrub to make have set up all the problems we've had thus far in this Turning, and also set up the governmental environment that is "concerned" with security to the nth degree, but only so in ceremonial terms which creates inefficiencies when dealing with actual emergencies like Katrina.

When Shrub lost his "influence" was after Katrina in 2005, images of the leader of the "Free World" walking through the ruins of New Orleans was quite damaging to him, and I've yet to find those images again since their broadcast (probably due to the MSM realizing how much damage that did to the status quo)--which was a pivotal moment in that it brought back the theme that Government can't solve all our problems again to the forefront--which IMO is the larger theme for this Turning which is a completely different turn away from the last saeculum's realization where people turned to the Government to solve all their problems for them. 2008 was confirmation that Corporations and Big Banks aren't going to save us this time, like they did last time. Which is why when Obama and Bush "saved" the Corps. and Banks there wasn't a "happy-go-lucky" "everything's fixed" response--there was the grumbling which eventually turned into the Tea Party and OWS (equivalent of last Saeculum's Bonus Army) which wants to do away with the powerful Government & powerful Big Business.

Prior to 2005 the belief in Government and Business to save the world was intact. After 2005, Government was no longer seen as a credible way to solve our problems--it was pretty clear that we were "on our own"; but we could rest assure that we still had Business to solve our problems... that is until 2008 when Business went belly up. And from that you could call 2008 a confirmation of the Turning mood, which only accelerated already existing ideas. Government was inefficient and corrupt, but now so was Big Business! And the Government now is even worse because it covered the inefficent asses of Big Business--proving they're in cahoots together!

This Crisis will end with a weakened Government--for sure. But whether or not we end up with a weakened Big Business side is yet to be seen IMO and is where the real battle of this Crisis will entail. This form of mixed Socialist-Capitalist economy can't last for forever and the two sides thus far seem to be advocating different things, one wants to take us back to a purely Capitalist economy we haven't seen since the 19th Century ended, the other is waffling around about whether to go along with pure Capitalism or to go head long into an even larger Socialist-Capitalist merged economy. The Democrats won't be able to argue for a purely Socialist economy--not while there are Generations with living memories of the Cold War still living. So that's where we stand, and why it looks likely that no matter what the Democrats do, the Republicans are going to gain from it, because thanks to the Cold War, the Democrats have cut themselves off from what otherwise might be their choice.

But one thing is clear--government is going to end up much weaker by the end of this Crisis--because that's one conclusion from 2005 that no one is questioning, not the far right (Tea Party) or the far left (who look to living in a highly localized Green environment).

Either way, the days of the American Globalist Empire are numbered--this is especially true if Europe breaks up and returns to their original currencies.

~Chas'88

I agree with the theme.
So what event marks the micro crisis 3T in the 20s?

Originally Posted by millennialX

I agree with the theme.
So what event marks the micro crisis 3T in the 20s?

Actually what was interesting about the 1920s is it made me realize two things about a micro-Crisis. It first is the death of the larger theme of the Turning culture, but it also repudiates it and stamps on what the previous micro-Crisis had been about that had created the Turning between micro-Crises. The repudiation begins after the "turning point" between the micro-Awakening and micro-Unraveling of a Turning in the micro-Unraveling, but it really doesn't pick up steam until the micro-Crisis truly begins. Think of it this way:

micro-High & micro-Awakening use the Turning's theme to build towards the Turning point
Turning Point comes along and upsets everything
micro-Unraveling & micro-Crisis work towards undoing the Turning theme

You can see this quite clearly with the last Awakening:

1964 - 1973 - micro-High and micro-Awakening building on the theme discovered out of the last micro-Crisis: a Liberal/Moderate-run America (Democrats being Liberal, Republicans being Moderate)

1974 - Turning Point - Nixon discredits the Moderate Ike-founded faction of the Republican party

1975 - 1984 - the moderate Republicans are further discredited by Ford, and Carter discredits the Liberal Democrats, leading to Reagan coming in and truly allowing the micro-Crisis to be let loose to do what it wanted which sets up the environment for the 3T and he goes about destroying the achievements of the Liberal/Moderate-run America as created in the 1959 - 1964 period. Ending in a Moderately Conservative-Republican party.

This is most noticeable in the Great War & Prohibition 3T as up until the 1920s, the 3T had been founded upon Roosevelt's doctrine of the Square Deal in the previous 2T to 3T. Thus the 3T was built upon the idea of the Square Deal and its principles of positive Government involvement. I know the 1920s looks like a good thing to most of us, but consider it from the perspective of someone who was pro-Government regulation and pro-Government involvement. The 1920s from that perspective, was a return to Gilded Age ideas, and undoing the effects of the Square Deal. Heck, we returned to this notion of Isolationism by refusing to join the League of Nations, and laissez faire economics returned with a fury--both of which were sentiments that the Progressive era were supposed to have "buried". The 1920s micro-Crisis, while not resembling what we might think of as a "crisis" of sorts, is a "Crisis" if you look at it from a specific perspective. It looks like pure Capitalism might just end up winning after all. So when I say a micro-Crisis repudiates the solution to the previous micro-Crisis, look at how the 1920s repudiated the ideals of the Square Deal and repudiated the idea of Government involvement being positive--which led right to the situation of 1929, and thus sent people back to the conclusion of the previous 2T micro-Crisis, turning the Square Deal into a "New Deal".

Similarly, in this saeculum, the 2T micro-Crisis which founded the 3T this time ended up on the idea that Government involvement was a negative. Our 3T micro-Crisis became about how Government could possible be a positive force in people's lives once again, which led straight to the problems we live in now.

Call the 3Ting micro-Crisis the last "chance" for a dying ideology to prove itself inefficient before it gives way to the decision made by the 2T micro-Crisis.

It also made me realize something else. That larger Crises repudiate one another. This one isn't going to end the same way that the GD/WWII one ended--because it's the application of the same "solution" over and over and over again which has led to our problem in the first place. It's like we figure out a solution to make things work, and it works to get us out of the Crisis. Then we overuse the tactic and abuse it to the point that halfway through the crisis we run into the fact that it's not really working anymore, and we come up with a new idea that we "test out" just a little by the end of the 2T micro-crisis. We return to the old solution over the course of the 3T, eventually returning to the idea that solved the issue of the 2T at the end of the 4T as the new "solution" for society. Which is why I think who comes out on top of the 2T micro-Crisis as being a big indicator for the direction of the country for the coming Saeculum, which is why I gave title to the leader who leads us into the 3T the title of "Grey Visionary". The pattern looks clear to me:


Religious Liberty from tyrannical "Established religion" - Political Liberty from tyrannical Monarchy
Nullification Crisis - Civil War
Square Deal - New Deal
Reagonomics - Libertarianism

Similarly the GD/WWII was a repudiation to what the ACW Crisis theme was about--which placed unrestricted Industrial might at the center of the nation. The ACW was about whether we were going to be an Industrial nation or continue as a half-Industrial/half-Agrarian. The Agrarian side tried to secede, which doomed its side to extinction and led to the rise in unchallenged Industrial power. You can also say it was about utterly destroying all serious "states rights" issues by killing off the idea of Nullification which had been in existence since the previous Crisis thanks to the Articles of Confederation.

The ACW repudiated the theme of the ARV, which was about liberty and independence from a foreign power and creating some form of governance. Notice how the South tried to use the same tactics and the same language as the ARV and the same tactics led to their failure. That's because they were past the point that that was going to work, because we were no longer the same world in which those ideas and tactics existed.



~Chas'88

This entire cycle that I'm describing isn't driven by archetypes or any other such thing. It is simply driven by people's need to search for some kind of solution to the problems that threaten to satisfy their needs.

1. We come up with a new solution
2. We use the new solution to establish the kind of environment we want to live in.
3. We abuse the new solution over and over and over again.
4. We discover its weak points and flaws.
5. We attempt to amend the weak point and flaws of the system without totally getting rid of the solution which has given us so much.
6. We discover that we're only putting band aides over the problems and that due to not being focused on that the problems have developed into new problems all their own that threaten us to meet our needs once again in new ways that we hadn't imagined.
7. We begin searching for a new solution to our new problems.
8. See #1.

Rinse & Repeat ad hominom on larger (Mega Saecular), large (Saecular), small (Turning), and smaller (micro-Turning) levels.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Above is a good argument for the catalyst of the micro-Crisis for the Unraveling. The changes 9/11 allowed Shrub to make have set up all the problems we've had thus far in this Turning, and also set up the governmental environment that is "concerned" with security to the nth degree, but only so in ceremonial terms which creates inefficiencies when dealing with actual emergencies like Katrina.

When Shrub lost his "influence" was after Katrina in 2005, images of the leader of the "Free World" walking through the ruins of New Orleans was quite damaging to him, and I've yet to find those images again since their broadcast (probably due to the MSM realizing how much damage that did to the status quo)--which was a pivotal moment in that it brought back the theme that Government can't solve all our problems again to the forefront--which IMO is the larger theme for this Turning which is a completely different turn away from the last saeculum's realization where people turned to the Government to solve all their problems for them. 2008 was confirmation that Corporations and Big Banks aren't going to save us this time, like they did last time. Which is why when Obama and Bush "saved" the Corps. and Banks there wasn't a "happy-go-lucky" "everything's fixed" response--there was the grumbling which eventually turned into the Tea Party and OWS (equivalent of last Saeculum's Bonus Army) which wants to do away with the powerful Government & powerful Big Business.

Prior to 2005 the belief in Government and Business to save the world was intact. After 2005, Government was no longer seen as a credible way to solve our problems--it was pretty clear that we were "on our own"; but we could rest assure that we still had Business to solve our problems... that is until 2008 when Business went belly up. And from that you could call 2008 a confirmation of the Turning mood, which only accelerated already existing ideas. Government was inefficient and corrupt, but now so was Big Business! And the Government now is even worse because it covered the inefficent asses of Big Business--proving they're in cahoots together!

This Crisis will end with a weakened Government--for sure. But whether or not we end up with a weakened Big Business side is yet to be seen IMO and is where the real battle of this Crisis will entail. This form of mixed Socialist-Capitalist economy can't last for forever and the two sides thus far seem to be advocating different things, one wants to take us back to a purely Capitalist economy we haven't seen since the 19th Century ended, the other is waffling around about whether to go along with pure Capitalism or to go head long into an even larger Socialist-Capitalist merged economy. The Democrats won't be able to argue for a purely Socialist economy--not while there are Generations with living memories of the Cold War still living. So that's where we stand, and why it looks likely that no matter what the Democrats do, the Republicans are going to gain from it, because thanks to the Cold War, the Democrats have cut themselves off from what otherwise might be their choice.

But one thing is clear--government is going to end up much weaker by the end of this Crisis--because that's one conclusion from 2005 that no one is questioning, not the far right (Tea Party) or the far left (who look to living in a highly localized Green environment).

Either way, the days of the American Globalist Empire are numbered--this is especially true if Europe breaks up and returns to their original currencies.

~Chas'88

I can't find anything I can disagree with in this post!

Meant to post this over here

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Which is why I say that I keep S&H "doctrine" on one side of my mind while I examine other possibilities in my head.

Pfft, down with doctrine! I'm increasingly partial to the fractal saeculum. Microturnings fit better than I expected the first time I heard you describing them: and within each microturning are individual years following their own seasons. It's turnings all the way down! Zooming out, mega-saeculum also seems to help explain why "it is different this time." Graphing it would look quite like the vibrations on a string.

I just think Columbine -> Dot Com bubble is a better unraveling crisis, it foreshadows the increases in security and economic instability that civics have grown up with as a "new normal."

Otherwise, we'd have to find out why changes in moods are "slowing down" when society actually seems more fickle and prone to change than ever before.

The looming mega-unraveling is the primary reason I expect little to be resolved. We should be entering a facsimile of the Gilded Age - except in decline rather than ascent. We would leave the 4T with the monopoly capitalists enthroned, empire in-tact but teetering, and a security state that is increasingly turned inward against those who do not conform with the Mega-Unraveling High's corrupt sense of civic duty.

Originally Posted by JohnMc82

I just think Columbine -> Dot Com bubble is a better unraveling crisis, it foreshadows the increases in security and economic instability that civics have grown up with as a "new normal."

Looking back over my dates, I see that I had 2000 as the start date for the Micro-Crisis of the Unraveling. And I'm reminded of why I didn't throw 1999 into that pile: the Melliennium Celebration which was the last party of the Micro-Unraveling IMO.

The Melliennium Celebration was "looked forward to" (all that hype for what, may I ask?) and commercialized as much as the Bicentennial was in the Awakening's micro-Unraveling, and it had as much pageantry surrounding it for no apparent reason besides we'd made it 2000 years since the year 0.

Remember these tacky things?



I equate that to my mother collecting Bicentennial collective tin cans:



And while the planning looking forward to the Mellennium Celebration also had to accompany Y2K fears--that began fading away with time as reports of "solving the glitch" surfaced. I remember very close to the end of 1999 there was a comic strip in the local paper which made fun of the hype. It personified the Y2K bug and had it encounter the main strip characters, tell its tale of how it used to be scary but people began understanding it and how it now feels quite "unimportant". Call it propaganda if you want, but that reflected the mood where I was--it was a blip on the radar screen and everything when back to normal.

And while I'd love to toss Columbine in with it, Columbine at the same time seems to belong more to the world of "Olympic Park Bombings", "Oklahoma City Bombings", Embassy Bombings, Y2K fears, and Lewinsky-gate. Although if you're arguing micro-micro Turnings I'd fully agree that it was the Micro-Unraveling's micro-micro Crisis.

The looming mega-unraveling is the primary reason I expect little to be resolved. We should be entering a facsimile of the Gilded Age - except in decline rather than ascent. We would leave the 4T with the monopoly capitalists enthroned, empire in-tact but teetering, and a security state that is increasingly turned inward against those who do not conform with the Mega-Unraveling High's corrupt sense of civic duty.

Can't disagree with this.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by 95 and alive

Why the year 2000? I know I don't even remember it but it never seemed like a Micro-Crisis year. I think the Micro Crisis began in 2001.

Dot Com Bubble Bursting

1999 vs 2000

And think many of those college students from the first link are now in their thirties... I wonder how many of them have those several billions of dollars. Very few to none.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Looking back over my dates, I see that I had 2000 as the start date for the Micro-Crisis of the Unraveling. And I'm reminded of why I didn't throw 1999 into that pile: the Melliennium Celebration which was the last party of the Micro-Unraveling IMO.

The Melliennium Celebration was "looked forward to" (all that hype for what, may I ask?) and commercialized as much as the Bicentennial was in the Awakening's micro-Unraveling, and it had as much pageantry surrounding it for no apparent reason besides we'd made it 2000 years since the year 0.

And while the planning looking forward to the Mellennium Celebration also had to accompany Y2K fears--that began fading away with time as reports of "solving the glitch" surfaced. I remember very close to the end of 1999 there was a comic strip in the local paper which made fun of the hype. It personified the Y2K bug and had it encounter the main strip characters, tell its tale of how it used to be scary but people began understanding it and how it now feels quite "unimportant". Call it propaganda if you want, but that reflected the mood where I was--it was a blip on the radar screen and everything when back to normal.

Celebration and fear - tied to the idea of one era ending and another starting.

And I bolded a key disclaimer from your post, which is something I had tried to go in to more detail on before the forum ate half my post in the process of cross-posting from the other thread.

I've lived in the south my whole life, but I've also traveled a lot - and I have to say that we've been living in our own little insulated world here for a while now. Y2K was kinda big, and not just because they were afraid computers were shutting down, but because they were afraid of a strange new future that relied on computers they didn't understand.

After 9-11, there were a lot of racially motivated crimes against Mid-Easterners and west Asians. It never really went away either - two years ago there was a firebomb detonated in a Jax mosque and that saga ended in an FBI shoot-out in Oklahoma. Military recruitment shifted HEAVILY toward rural (red) counties and away from the bluer cities... So the 9-11 thing never really "blew over" by 2005. Hell, people here still believe Clinton should have been convicted at his impeachment, while the rest of the country looks back on that as a bad joke!

So between that experience of the last 15 years, and trying to reconcile the causes of an extended unraveling (1982-2008?!) I'm starting to wonder if the Awakening survived longer in blue regions than it did in the red ones, and if this fragmentation of the country's perspectives is another symptom of the mega-unraveling.

Originally Posted by Chas'88

Dot Com Bubble Bursting

1999 vs 2000

And think many of those college students from the first link are now in their thirties... I wonder how many of them have those several billions of dollars. Very few to none.

A picture worth a million words:



How much gold is a stock portfolio worth? A whole lot in September 1929 or Summer 1999. Not much at all in a crisis.

There's an attempt to apply modern econometrics to these commodity cycles in this 2012 report to the UN, and they conclude commodity super-cycles run between 30 and 40 years each, while acknowledging other types of price cycles that run at 20 and 70 year intervals. Sound familiar?

[QUOTE=JohnMc82;431349]Celebration and fear - tied to the idea of one era ending and another starting.

And I bolded a key disclaimer from your post, which is something I had tried to go in to more detail on before the forum ate half my post in the process of cross-posting from the other thread.

I've lived in the south my whole life, but I've also traveled a lot - and I have to say that we've been living in our own little insulated world here for a while now. Y2K was kinda big, and not just because they were afraid computers were shutting down, but because they were afraid of a strange new future that relied on computers they didn't understand.

After 9-11, there were a lot of racially motivated crimes against Mid-Easterners and west Asians. It never really went away either - two years ago there was a firebomb detonated in a Jax mosque and that saga ended in an FBI shoot-out in Oklahoma. Military recruitment shifted HEAVILY toward rural (red) counties and away from the bluer cities... So the 9-11 thing never really "blew over" by 2005. Hell, people here still believe Clinton should have been convicted at his impeachment, while the rest of the country looks back on that as a bad joke!

So between that experience of the last 15 years, and trying to reconcile the causes of an extended unraveling (1982-2008?!) I'm starting to wonder if the Awakening survived longer in blue regions than it did in the red ones, and if this fragmentation of the country's perspectives is another symptom of the mega-unraveling.

Funny thing is I lived in a red-ish exurban (nearly rural, that was the next township over) area. I understand the military recruitment push--it came in the form of more friendly than usual solicitors and recruitment officers who camped out in the lobbies of the High Schools in my region--which was slightly disturbing to some of the teachers at my high school who said they hadn't had that much presence prior to that..

~Chas'88

I'm listening to Songs of the 1910s as research for a play I'm doing, and I think this was a interesting little display of Micro-Turnings:

Unraveling-high: 1908 - 1912 - Alexander's Ragtime Band (1911)
Unraveling-awakening: 1912 - 1917 - I Didn't Raise My Boy to be a Soldier (1915) vs. It's Time for Every Boy to be a Soldier (1917)
Unraveling-unraveling: 1917 - 1922 - When Alexander Takes his Ragtime Band to France (1918)

~Chas'88

Great Power Saeculum Dates:

High-high: 1868 - 1873
High-awakening: 1873 - 1877
High-unraveling: 1877 - 1882
High-crisis: 1882 - 1886

Awakening-high: 1886 - 1891
Awakening-awakening: 1891 - 1896
Awakening-unraveling: 1896 - 1902
Awakening-crisis: 1902 - 1908

Unraveling-high: 1908 - 1912
Unraveling-awakening: 1912 - 1917
Unraveling-unraveling: 1917 - 1922
Unraveling-crisis: 1922 - 1929

Crisis-high: 1929 - 1933
Crisis-awakening: 1933 - 1937
Crisis-unraveling: 1937 - 1941
Crisis-crisis: 1941 - 1945

~Chas'88

Civil War Saeculum:

High-high: 1790 - 1796
High-awakening: 1796 - 1803
High-unraveling: 1803 - 1809
High-crisis: 1809 - 1815

Awakening-high: 1815 - 1819
Awakening-awakening: 1819 - 1824
Awakening-unraveling: 1824 - 1829
Awakening-crisis: 1829 - 1833

Unraveling-high: 1833 - 1837
Unraveling-awakening: 1837 - 1841
Unraveling-unraveling: 1841 - 1846
Unraveling-crisis: 1846 - 1850

Crisis-high: 1850 - 1855
Crisis-awakening: 1855 - 1859
Crisis-unraveling: 1859 - 1863
Crisis-crisis: 1863 - 1868

Originally Posted by 95 and alive

Why 1922? Just curious....

End of the post-WWI recession, President Harding is the first President to speak over the Radio and have one installed in the White House, and the upholding of the rights of Women by the Supreme Court

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by 95 and alive

My Millennial Saeculum Dates
Superpower Era
1T:1946-1950
2T:1950-1955
3T:1955-1959
4T:1959-1964

Consciousness Revolution
1T: 1964-1968
2T: 1968-1973
3T: 1973-1978
4T: 1978-1984

Corporate Era
1T:1984-1989
2T:1989-1995
3T:1995-2000
4T:2000-2007
(Placeholder)
Global Finical Crisis( Speculation)
1T: 2007-2010
2T: 2010-2014
3T:2014-2020
4T:2020-2024

Sounds good to me.

A good example of the Unraveling-Awakening era:

Pump Up the Volume (1990) Trailer

A film about examining the last Awakening, it's faults and failures--and how the Boomers have become their GI parents by "settling". Yet at the same time it's attempting to accomplish the very Awakening that it critiques within its Xer characters. However this Unraveling-Awakening is as nihilistic, dark, and cynical with one--rather oddly out of place--hopeful message about how "survival" will "heal" them.

Quotes:

"Everybody knows that the dice is loaded..."
"Don't rock the boat, especially when you're in it"
"Assuming that there ever was a heaven, who would ever want to go there? ... Guess what, there's nothing to do, fucking boring!"

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by Chas'88

A good example of the Unraveling-Awakening era:

Pump Up the Volume (1990) Trailer

A film about examining the last Awakening, it's faults and failures--and how the Boomers have become their GI parents by "settling". Yet at the same time it's attempting to accomplish the very Awakening that it critiques within its Xer characters. However this Unraveling-Awakening is as nihilistic, dark, and cynical with one--rather oddly out of place--hopeful message about how "survival" will "heal" them.

Quotes:

"Everybody knows that the dice is loaded..."
"Don't rock the boat, especially when you're in it"
"Assuming that there ever was a heaven, who would ever want to go there? ... Guess what, there's nothing to do, fucking boring!"

~Chas'88

Cool find.

Which kind of made me think of these music videos as early examples of the Unraveling-Awakening. You've probably seen them before (heavy rotation on MTV), but check the aesthetics:
August, 1987: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGPhUr-T6UM
April, 1988: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGbUOlTLzqk

Compare that to the "True Blue, Baby I Love You" of a year before.

As for Unraveling-Awakening film, Forrest Gump is actually a prime example, covering the last Awakening from the vantage point of 1994. And it's got its 2T end dates set correctly as well.

Originally Posted by Tussilago

As for Unraveling-Awakening film, Forrest Gump is actually a prime example, covering the last Awakening from the vantage point of 1994. And it's got its 2T end dates set correctly as well.

What? Correctly? Why you...you...you "Hooligan"!

Prince

PS:



"Hollow Core" Deliciousness!x2